End of Days

by Lowetide

During yesterday’s game I was thinking about how many players on this year’s Oilers team who are looking at their final chance at Stanley. It goes by so quickly, you know. I still think of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as a kid, he turns 31 in less than two months.

This version of the Edmonton Oilers will never occur again. Free agents will come and go, men who contribute in the regular season won’t get their names on the Stanley should Edmonton win this year (ask Don Awrey) and you and I won’t be in the same place one year from now, compared to today. Each season feels connected, like one gigantic thread over two decades, but things change every day.

I think we can have a cool conversation today. I hope you’ll join me in figuring out what I believe is a fascinating situation.

I want to believe analytics, fancy numbers, bring us together and allow us to talk about hockey in a more sophisticated way. We observe, exchange ideas, and then draw our conclusions. When someone suggests something that runs counter to our thinking, and we conclude they are correct, we change our view.

That isn’t a weakness. It’s a strength. Today, I have a project for all of us. Maybe together, we can reach a conclusion on an interesting question.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
  • Actual February results: 4-3-0, 8 points in 7 games
  • Oilers in 2023-24: 33-18-1, 67 points in 52 games

That was a weird game yesterday in Scottsdale (I actually have zero idea where the rink is now). Edmonton’s second periods, combined with the penalty kill, are just so bad. We’ve gone from agreeing the team has a bunch of problems, to believing everything was solved, to now seeing those issues are (mostly) not solved.

From the beginning of the year, we talked about goaltending, No. 2 D, a scoring winger and a No. 4 center. I think we can take the goaltending out of the equation (despite yesterday’s wobble), but adding in PK help would be a plan. Holy hell! The PK has surrendered 10 goals in six games!! Take those goals (and the one PK marker) out of the overall totals, and in the last six games the Oilers have outscored opponents 25-13. So, that’s a thing that needs fixing right now.

THE NUMBERS

Stuart Skinner was not sharp yesterday. Rob Soria tweeted about Skinner’s unwillingness to get out to the top of the blue paint on the Bjugstad goals and that rings true. He needs to clean these things up and that’s for sure. I thought Mattias Ekholm had two ‘pinch of sin’ moments that were costly and Vincent Desharnais is so confident with the puck he’s getting himself in trouble. Like Skinner, I’m not worried about either man, but these things need to be ironed out before the playoffs.

I think the switch in lines was an astute tweak by Kris Knoblauch, and am hopeful we see the return of Nuge-McDavid-Hyman full time. I also think Ryan McLeod could be an interesting piece for Leon Draisaitl’s line. It was a fun game, although things would have been more enjoyable if Oilers fans had been assured of a win at the end. For a time, it looked bleak, and if Edmonton does that against the Bruins tomorrow night it’ll get ugly.

Evander Kane is a player who fans seem to have targeted as being an issue. I continue to believe it’s the “with Connor Brown” portion of his resume. Kane’s five-on-five scoring rates are fine, perhaps a little low (1.85-per-60) but in the range of expectation. He scored a goal and no assists in 190 minutes with Brown. Without Brown, Kane has scored 11-11-22 at five-on-five in about 560 minutes. That’s 2.37 pts-60.

Kane with Brown on-ice (five-on-five) is 2-11 goals; without Brown, Kane is 28-22.

QUESTION OF THE DAY

The question today: Is running the McDavid line with the Bouchard pairing the best way to deploy the top players on the team?

The McDavid line with the Bouchard pairing have played 476 minutes this season. The on-ice goal share (all of these numbers are five-on-five) is 58.5 percent, that’s very strong. McDavid solo is 59 percent in 244 minutes. About the same. Ekholm-Bouchard without McDavid is 54 percent. Still quality. All via Natural Stat Trick.

The goals-60 for McDavid with the pairing is 3.91 and it’s 3.94 without the duo. Now, let’s look at McDavid with Nurse-Ceci.

  • McDavid with Nurse-Ceci: 148 minutes, 61 percent goal share; 4.45 goals-60
  • McDavid w/o Nurse-Ceci: 583 minutes, 59 percent goal share; 4.01 goals-60

They’re all good, right? McDavid’s line scores 3.91 pts-60 with Bouchard’s pairing in 476 minutes. In a far smaller sample (148 minutes) with Nurse, it’s 4.45 goals-60 and a 61 percent goal share. We can’t know that Nurse-Ceci would be able to backstop that kind of result over 476 minutes, but it’s good. How are the pairings without the captain?

  • Nurse-Ceci w/o McDavid: 587 minutes, 53.5 percent goal share; 2.35 goals-60
  • Ekholm-Bouchard w/o 97: 283 minutes, 54 percent goal share; 2.76 goals-60

Both pairings do well without McDavid, the Bouchard pairing does better offensively but the goal share is similar. Now let’s look at the Puck IQ numbers (everything is at five-on-five today):

  • McDavid w/Bouchard v elites: 180 mins; 66 pct DFF; DFF%CR: 11.37; 46.7 goal pct
  • McDavid w/Nurse v elites: 54 mins; 61.6 pct DFF; DFF%CR: 4.38; 100 goal ptc. (6-0)
  • McDavid w/Nurse v elites 2023-24: 206 mins; 58.3 DFF; DFF%CR: 12.9; 64.7 goal pct

This year’s McDavid-Nurse minutes are just over 50, a sample size so small we can’t conclude one single thing. So I included last year to give some additional information.

Today’s question: Is the McDavid line with the Bouchard pairing the right call based on these numbers? Is it a coin flip? Is there something I am missing that is measurable? I think that’s a very good conversation we could have today. Oh, one final thing: Cody Ceci’s numbers with and without McDavid.

  • McDavid with Ceci: 53 mins, 57.7 DFF pct; DFF%CR: -0.08; 100 goal pct
  • McDavid w/o Ceci: 210 mins, 64.4 DFF pct; DFF%CR: 10; 54.5 goal pct
  • Ceci w/o McDavid: 187 mins, 51.8 DFF pct; DFF%CR: -8.08; 44 goal pct

It’s a busy afternoon on the Lowdown, noon to two on Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Rachel Doerrie from Staff & Graph podcast, talking Oilers at the deadline and Jaromir Jagr’s weekend. Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will have his weekly chat with us, describing an interesting road trip that leaves us with more questions and than answers. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.

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AsiaOil

Outside of Tanev I see zero realistic solutions at #2 RHD. Someone is going to pay a 1st round pick for that guy as the alternatives are mediocre or unavailable. Looking around the league I can’t see 32 RHD better than Ceci so I peg him as a high-end 2RHD. If you want to upgrade then you are looking at getting a #1 RHD which are rare as hen’s teeth if available at all. Tanev rental will cost you Broberg. Might consider it if Tanev had term but not for a few weeks.

godot10

Ceci is a solid 3rd pairing D on a contender. He is at best a #5, and certainly not a #3. If Ceci were a #3, we wouldn’t be discussing Ceci as a vulnerability in his current role.

OriginalPouzar

I disagree and believe that Ceci is 100% a 2RD/4D in the NHL, on a contender (that has Ekholm/Nurse on their left side and a secondary Norris candidate in Bouch – that is a stud top 3 D taking aside Colorado and maybe a couple others).

Mayan Oil

I have an odd feeling that we ALMOST catch Vancouver by season’s end, and LA inches in front of Vegas. Can’t explain it really, just a gut feeling. Then we would face LA again first round and Vegas and Vancouver would face each other…

Unless of course Vancouver draws Nashville or St Louis by winning the West, which would leave Vegas facing one of Colorado, Winnipeg or Dallas. That would almost guarantee we see Vancouver second round and a good chance Vegas is either bounced before the Conference finals or severely taxed by a murderer’s row of opponents in the first two rounds. I think that might be the more likely result. Whoever comes out of the Central will have faced two very tough series to get to the West Final. A first round of Van/Nas or St Louis and Edm-LA would make a great storyline for the Pacific championship round that would result. I would love to bounce the Dys to get to the West Final!

€√¥£€^$
€√¥£€^$

Bakersfield wins 4-3 in OT, Savoie with winning goal.

Lavoie with 1 g 1 🍎 & 8 shots

Pederson with a deuce + 1 🍎

All goals scored in this game were on the PP, except Savoie’s snipe.

Last edited 8 months ago by €√¥£€^$
OriginalPouzar

and it was an absolute snipe of a game winner. Also, that’s not the first scoring chance he’s created with his stick in the defensive zone – its becoming a thing.

He need to just stay healthy!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I miss cassandra. There, I said it.

Side

Cassandra was a great poster.

Sans the crazy Chiarelli rants which were over the top, even for someone like Chiarelli.

striker

Guentzel and Dowd injured.

Damaged goods used to be marked down in those bins at the front in BiWay.

Diablo

What do people think of Mittlestadt? Plays centre and wing, has really taken off the past couple of years. Good stats that aren’t dependent on the PP. Knock on him is that he doesn’t shoot enough.

2.5 million this season. He’ll get at least 5 million next year, but we’d have team control through his prime years.

Potentially available according to Friedman.

Last edited 8 months ago by Diablo
OriginalPouzar

Adding a $5MM cap hit going forward seems unrealistic to me even with Foegele not being brought back and Kulak moved.

Unless a $5MM forward is going out.

godot10

The Oilers have good left shots out the wazoo. If the Oilers spend resources and assets, they need a right shot center or winger.

godot10

I like McLeod with Draisaitl and Kane. I think McLeod will help Draisaitl’s advanced stats and his boxscore stats on the 2nd line, more than a scoring winger, because of his transport skills. Lots of shooting on that line with Kane and Draisaitl already.

I like Holloway as 3C.

It is difficult to upgrade Ceci, so the best that might be able to be done is to add a more mobile right D, 2nd pair 3rd pair tweener, on an expiring contract, probably via a double retention, to provide an option against quicker teams.

So I would be content with Dowd and the right D described above.

Lest Tampa falls out of it and Stamkos becomes available.

Ryan

Taraseno and Tanev.

Would that do the job?

Or Tarsenko and Carrier.

What would they cost?

How do you make the cap work?

Ryan

Here are the facts.

The Oilers are in absolute dire need of right wing scoring winger.

Ken Holland has Steve Staios’ cell number.

Holland loves proven vets with cup rings.

The Senators got Tarasenko for free.

Holland must be beside himself thinking about Tarasenko on Leon’s wing.

John Chambers

Rasmus Andersson and Tarasenko

Ryan

Darren Dreger said just the other day that Craig Conroy isn’t shopping Andersson. He said that sure he would trade him if he received an absurd offer, but otherwise no.

John Chambers

That’s not a no.
I mean, if you’re going to trade 1st round picks for expiring contracts, why not trade several first round picks for an insane value contract at a position of immense need.

Maybe the Ekholm trade has me believing that they’ll try to pull an out of the box move.

defmn

Exactly how I feel. I don’t know if Andersson is the guy but this is the year to swing for the fences and because of the cost of doing that I would like some term.

OriginalPouzar

Dowd and Duclair.

Ryan

I’m in the Willis camp. I don’t want to see Nurse – Ceci lining up against Eichel and Mackinnon.

Dowd could help, sure.

I’ve always like Duclair more than most though at this point, it’s hard to know what you’re getting.

OriginalPouzar

I’m in the realist camp with respect to what Holland is likely to do (and not do) and with respect to most of the suggestions not being actual locked in upgrades. Tanev likely is but i see much risk in moving Ceci out for a guy I’m not sure can make it through the playoffs near 100%.

I don’t see Holland moving Ceci but I could be wrong.

I also think Ceci is better than most do.

defmn

Agreed that Ceci doesn’t get the respect he deserves. He delivers value above his cap hit imo and that right there increases his value. That said I am not convinced that he improves Nurse or Nurse improves him and that is really what I look for in a pair.

Complementary parts where the whole is more than the sum of the parts is what I want to see in a pairing and I don’t see that with those two. Not sure why but I just don’t.

godot10

Willis camp? I told the blog last summer, and all season, that Ceci was one of the Oilers most significant vulnerabilities come playoff time against elite teams.

godot10

Vulnerability in his current role to be more precise.

striker

Dowd might be injured tonight

OriginalPouzar

Further to the Mark Hunter intel dropped by Eliotte the other day, would/should Brian Lawton be a candidate?

DexandRuby

Interesting thought. If I remember correctly, Lawton overruled his scouts to take Victor Hedman in the draft. He’s talked about it on Oilersnow.

I’ve often wondered what the sharks were thinking when they passed on Lawton to hire the less experienced Grier. The fact someone of Lawtons caliber even wanted that job and the sharks passed is shocking. I have a theory but it would likely get me banned from posting.

Diablo

Lawton wore out his welcome in TB; there’s probably a more nuanced reason that Grier got hired over Lawton than it being an affirmative action hire. Grier inherited a flaming wreck so I’d give him a few years before casting judgement on his ability as a GM.

DexandRuby

Careful making assumptions.

Fuge Udvar

The Nurse-Ceci and Bouchard-Ekholm numbers are so similar I don’t think the stats can inform us on this one. A percentage difference that small is impossible to differentiate on ice. After that the stats get so diced up it’s hard to rule out the noise.

Give McDavid the puck movers. He is the most dangerous player in the world off the rush.

Put Nurse and Ceci up against the elites when they aren’t up against McDavid.

knighttown

On the offside review debate I think the call to rid the game of offside reviews is an emotional overreaction. No one wants to see a playoff game decided on a Duchene offside. You can create any false equivalency you want but this scenario far outweighs any of the nuisance scenarios that annoy us with the current system. So offside reviews, like goal reviews are here to stay and they should be.

So how to fix? One simple rule change.

Make it illegal for a coach to receive input from a video coach. The coach makes the call after discussing with his players in real time.

From there everything else is the same;
1. Same penalty for being wrong
2. Take the time you need to get it right
3. Can still be as trivial an offside as you want

All the annoying stuff; the number of reviews, the length of reviews and the reversals on ticky-tack plays, comes from having the eye in the sky. If the coach isn’t sure he won’t throw the flag and he CAN’T be sure on those incredibly close plays so the flags for those disappear.

Don’t get caught up on the “illegal” part of “illegal to get input”. Players get traded and change orgs. Coaches get fired and change orgs. It’s easily enforceable but if you prefer a scenario where the word is “impractical” instead of illegal that’s fine too.

Elgin R

I agree that there must be a review process in place especially for the playoffs. My main beef with these are the length of time involved in some cases.

I would offer the following:

  • Coach has 30 seconds after last whistle to challenge – after the 30 seconds is up too bad.
  • Coach can talk to anyone he wants – including the ‘Eye in the Sky’ (shoutout to Alan Parsons Project).
  • Refs have 2 minutes to rule otherwise the call on the ice stands.

Keep the game moving!

90s fan

Refs have 2 minutes – are they moving auickly, slowly – i assume the two minutes is actually on the tech time

Are they fast thinkers or slow thinkers, will they doddle just to sey they ran out of time…

I worry about such time limits creating room for decreased reliability in strange ways.

That being said i agree, its when they cant decide rhat we are just like get on with it…

€√¥£€^$

The offside rule should be revised, IMO.

If an offside does not create a clear advantage to the scoring team on the play, the goal should count. That would speed up the process and keep it more in the hands of the officials.

€√¥£€^$

Examples:

A stationary player

A player going to the bench

A player skating towards the blueline

A player whose skate is not on the ice, but making an obvious effort to stay onside

Players who are contacted by the opposition knocking them into an offside position

OriginalPouzar

I disagree – if the player was offside and this is evident upon review, no goal.

If it takes 4-5 minutes with zooming in at every possible angle to see if the the player was on or off-side by a fraction, its too much – if its not apparent within a few minutes and a few different angles, the no-call on the ice stands, goal and move on

€√¥£€^$

I contend that it would easy to assess, thus speeding up the process.

OriginalPouzar

Broberg now “week to week” – for crying out loud.

Todd Macallan

That must be one heck of a spicy deep bruise.

rich tm

Wonder if it’s a bone bruise that’s not healing. Seem to remember something like this with another player a couple of years ago. Blocked a shot, initial said day-to-day but the pain continued, they did another x-ray a week later and determined their was a small fracture.

Scungilli Slushy

Send him to Connor’s hyperbaric

ArmchairGM

I just realized that the best offensive season by an Oilers defenseman not named Paul Coffey was Risto Siltanen’s 63-point 1981-82 campaign. Bouchard is already at 53 and on pace to eclipse that by a fair margin.

Coffey, of course, has the six best seasons on the Oilers all-time list, with 138, 126, 121, 96, 89 and 67 point seasons in the books. Bouchard has an outside chance at the #5. He is certain to pass Steve Smith (55), Pronger (56) and Huddy (57) in the coming days, leaving all but Siltanen and Coffey in the rearview mirror.

OriginalPouzar

Bouchard is an elite offensive d-man and driver of offence at evens and the PP.

He is not far from being a legit all around 1RD. There are gaffs but they are decreasing in number and quality, his on-zone defending continues to develop and he’s high end at defending zone entry.

Boil-in-the-Oil

Willing to speculate on his salary / term for his next contract? It’s gonna be a big number.

OriginalPouzar

Yup, it will be in the $8MM range for 8 years (hopefully) – it may be higher – tough to say at this point.

Genjutsu

Would you try to extend him to 8 x 8 contract at your earliest convenience?

I think I would.

OriginalPouzar

That could be done this summer and, yes, I think I would (but get Leon done first).

Scungilli Slushy

I’m crying right now

Few top GMs would have kicked that can down the road

It went big time ugly last time, with a guy with far lesser numbers and only one season of seeming offensive ability

The cap is not a problem for competitive managers. Proven repeatedly

OriginalPouzar

Not proven on the least.

90s fan

For whom is the cap not a problem? (Ha, vegas cause they circumvent it… but otherwise?)

Reja

Ristro had a cannon for a shot although it may not of been the most accurate he did in fact scare the crap out of players on both sides of the aisle. Sather parlayed Ristro into a young Kenny the Rat Linesman for a few years then flipped him for another young centre Mike Krushelnyski. Now ladies and Gentlemen that is what’s called savvy G.M-ing. Sather would of pumped and dumped Foegele and recieved a 3rd-4th line centre on a cheap with term salary.

McNuge93

And then he turned Krushelnyski into Jimmy Carson 🙂

Diablo

Who became Murphy, Graves and Klima and another Cup.

There was some guy named Gretzky who was also shuffled along.

Last edited 8 months ago by Diablo
Bruce McCurdy

These are the only 60-point seasons ever recorded by an Oilers d-man. Coffy 6, Siltanen 1.

Siltanen’s 63 points came in just 63 games. Point per game. 63 GP, 15-48-63, +13.

Benign Bone

As far as deadline targets go, I’m onboard with Henrique at F (as an addition) and/or Carrier at D (as an upgrade on Ceci).

Henrique would be harder to fit under the cap but double retention would bring his number down to ~1.4mil and that ought to be doable. Would free up McLeod to stay with Drai and build on their current sample. As for Carrier, I like what he brings and I don’t view his size as an area of concern given his skating ability and the size of the rest of the blueline. He also played quite extensively with Ekholm which provides some flexibility in deployment.

OriginalPouzar

i’m not sold that Carrier is a locked in upgrade on Ceci. If there is a way to add him without moving out Ceci and knocking Vinny to 7D…….

Bruce McCurdy

Carrier plays 18 minutes a night for a bubble team.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Colorado gonna go into a death spiral here. Of all the curious decisions by Bednar the riding of Georgiev to basically league tops in all Goaler use categories is the most quizzical. Going to need McRantakar to run above what they’ve already been doing. Dangerous times in Denver.

What mystifying spell did the Wild cast over the Magical Tocchet System? That PK got lit up, helping blow two separate four goal leads. DeSmith has lost four straight and six of his last eight to start 2024. Tocchet left him in for eight last night. Gonna be hard to ride Demko anymore without risking burnout and Vancouver plays a lot of playoff teams the next few weeks.

Bruce McCurdy

Back to back, Demko tonight @ COL.

hard to believe Van City scored 7 times on 24 shots & still got PDO’d!

ArmchairGM

Since his shutout January 22 v Chicago, Demko has posted a .900 over 7 games. They need someone to take the pressure off him badly – DeSmith has allowed 16 goals in his past 3 starts and obviously isn’t trusted.

jfry

@lowetide

re: skinner and getting out in the crease, via Rob Soria.

I don’t believe that’s Skinner’s style. He stays deep in his crease and contains himself post to post and relatively upright. He doesn’t challenge shooters, he stops the puck. His style reminds me a lot of Sean Burke when he finally made all his positioning changes in Arizona. Asking Skinner to challenge at the top of the blue is not aligned with his style of play. He doesn’t chase the play, he blocks the net.

Burke quotes:
On his reputation for wanting goalies to stay on their feet longer and play deeper in the crease:
“First of all, I’m not preaching anything, to be honest. I’m not a guy that goes in somewhere and has a set way of doing anything. I think that when you’ve played a long time you understand that this game is complicated at times. Things change. What you’re trying to do is simplify it. I think I have a philosophy on what I believe. But to say that I want every goalie to play deep or I want every goalie to do the same thing, that just wouldn’t be true. What I want is I want our goaltenders to give themselves an opportunity to make every save.”
https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-sean-burke-has-some-interesting-ideas-about-goaltending

“During his years as the Arizona Coyotes goalie coach, Burke worked with a group of goalies who were all just as big as Price, if not larger. During an era when goalies such as Tom Barrasso and Ron Hextall were breaking the norm from employing smaller, quicker goalies, Burke himself was one of the first big goalies in the NHL. The instruction he received from goalie coach Benoit Allaire during his time playing for the Coyotes allowed Burke to have the best years of his career.
What Burke learned from Allaire, he has since passed on to the goalies that have worked under him.
“If you watched most of Benoit’s guys, and then guys that have been with Burkie, they obviously played a little bit deeper in their crease,” said former goaltender Jason LaBarbera, who had both Allaire and Burke as a goalie coach before becoming one himself for the Calgary Flames.
“They are bigger guys. So playing deeper, and then playing on your feet. Benoit would always call it ‘beat the pass.’ You’re always trying to beat the pass on your feet, there’s not a lot of extra movement, there’s not a lot of sliding, you’re trying to be patient and on your feet as much as possible. And even for me as a coach now, those are some things that I’ve taken that I believe in, and I think that they work.”
LaBarbera believes there is a real benefit to a goaltender staying on his feet as long as possible.
“You can get to different places on your feet a lot easier,” he said. “If you’re sliding everywhere, you tend to take yourself out of position more. Especially if you’re a bigger guy, if you’re playing inside your posts, you’re not overplaying situations where you’re taking yourself out of the net. You’re playing in the centre of the net, you’re on your feet. Even if you might not make a save per se, the puck might hit you, so I think you’re giving yourself better chances to make saves … but if he’s sliding and he’s down, it just creates more holes.
“It creates more problems, I think, for goalies when they’re doing that.”
https://theathletic.com/2434374/2021/03/08/canadiens-goalie-coach-sean-burke/

it’s a great article and has commentary from Mike Smith and Dubnyk about how Burke really helped them with positioning. Don’t want to copy and paste too much.

Anyhow, just a few thoughts on voodoo.

SoCaloil

Great Post. Thanks

maudite

There’s only so many things I seem to be capable of focusing on at same time, within a season.

I’ll admit goaltending hasn’t realky been one of them that’s stuck out needing much focus, luckily.

So no idea but just a question:

Is skinner integrating any of that “recoil” technique that was all the buzz from Boston last year?

I was glad Kane scored that kind of open shot well placed goal the other way later. I’ve been saying for awhile that’s one goal that seems like it gets scored on them a lot more than scored by them. …

There’s no team close to as good as oilers at passing it into the net but raised shots from mid distance outside middle ice, while in motion carrying puck – is what’s likely most missing if they really want a better chance to beat the likes of Vegas.

Litke 94

The issue with running McDavid’s line out there with Ceci is that in doing so, it just cripples an avenue of skill options for that line. With Bouchard out there, when McDavid is circling behind the net and that line is cycling, they feel completely confident firing that puck back to Bouchard. Both him and Ekholm can comfortably keep the puck in, find a great pass, make that great pass, or hammer the puck on net.

Good things happen with the puck on Bouchard or Ekholm’s stick at the offensive blue line.

Ceci, unfortunately, doesn’t have anywhere near this same level of skill. He can squeak through a wrister on net – and as we seen in Detroit – it occasionally works out. But more often than that, its a very basic play. The worst of which is the panicked, rushed dump in along the boards that results in a 50/50 battle for the puck behind the net. We seen one of those last night. That play is fine with the 3rd/4th line on the ice, but imo, is cardinal sin with McDavid or Draisaitl out there.

So if you take McDavid away from Bouchard, and put him with Nurse/Ceci, it’s fine, but you’re limiting the best offensive player on the planet by taking away an extremely valuable tool in Bouchard. Which is maybe the right call – in that the loss for McDavid isn’t enough to offset the benefit gained from spreading the wealth around…. it just feels wrong.

Probably won’t happen this year – but if Ceci is upgraded next year to a player who can do more offensively, I think a vast majority of us will be going, “why the heck didn’t this happen sooner?!?”

Durag

Jonathan Willis had a tweet the other day that I’m going to paraphrase from memory:

-Nurse-Ceci pairing has been an issue every year they’ve been together in the playoffs

-Foegele has 2 goals in 25 playoff games with the Oilers

I always want to give Ceci the benefit of the doubt, but seeing those numbers without McDavid is pretty alarming.

Obviously this is all much easier said than done, but sending Foegele and Ceci in the quest for upgrades is a move that actually sends meaningful salaries out and addresses what we can reasonably assume will be roster issues in the playoffs.

defmn

Ceci is great value at a $3.25 M cap hit. It is the pairing that is the problem. The wrong mix. Overlap of strengths & weaknesses.

The way to improve the scoring from Draisaitl/Kane is to find them a RD that can do for them what Bouchard does for McDavid/Nuge/Hyman.

Trading Foegele & Ceci last summer to fix that problem is what some of us wanted to do last summer.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Been too long since your last post.

Hope everything is well on the farm.

defmn

Thanks. I usually don’t post much during the season & this year I pulled the plug on cable so haven’t seen more than a couple of games. That decision looked like a stroke of genius early on.

I usually start to pay attention coming up to the trade deadline when the real season gets going with the real rosters going into the playoffs so I have been lurking for a couple of weeks now trying to get a feel for how everybody is viewing things.

My one surprise so far has been that I think we are thinking too small.

This and next year have to be peak seasons to be all in, do they not? I’m thinking two firsts of the next three years or at least one first and two seconds in the next three years plus Broberg plus whatever else is on the farm that some team might want for an upgrade on RD and bottom six have to be on the table as long as there is at least one more year of term.

Any idea what retention per year per million costs these days?

€√¥£€^$
defmn

Thank you.

John Chambers

Rasmus Andersson: the right-handed Ekholm
There are a number of trades that would help this team for these playoffs, but RA would cover a position of relative weakness rather perfectly.

Ryan

I’d be all for the Oilers adding Andersson, but I can’t see Calgary trading him.

They have Tanev and Hanifin both potentially heading out. Clearing out 3 top four d would be absolutely crippling.

defmn

Just out of curiosity what do you think it might take to pull him out of Calgary?

Pretty much anything we do at the TD that materially upgrades this team is going to require an “overpay” – I think we all have to know that going in – but just how much of an overpay do you think this would require if this is the move you see that as close to perfect?

Thanks.

hunter1909

Does Leon accept a 4 year contract?

Yes: vote up.

No: vote down.

hunter1909

ps: Any reasons for either argument welcome.

Durag

I say he doesn’t. I base that on the assumption that he likes money and thinks that having more of it is a good thing.

€√¥£€^$

Players of his age and calibre don’t sign short-term contracts until they are well past their prime.

LMHF#1

Why offer him only 4 years?

The man is a hockey battle tank, built to last.

Sign him as long as you can.

Last edited 8 months ago by LMHF#1
OriginalPouzar

If the AAV was the same, I’d prefer a 5-6 year deal for Drai over an 8 year deal.

John Chambers

Leon doesn’t care what you prefer.
He may want to sign a modest extension, as Hunter proposes, to try and win in Edmonton, then control his destiny for a retirement contract at age 34.
That’s what I would do if I were him.

OriginalPouzar

Of course he doesn’t but is this forum not here to post our opinions on the noted subjects?

What and odd, seemingly personal issue driven, response.

hunter1909

I’m thinking from his pov. Leon is making a lot of money now, and will make it over the 4 years of any contract which gives him a nice run at being a UFA were Oilers to flounder instead of winning at least 1 championship.

Diablo

Leon will sign for max term but will spread the dollars around to reduce the AAV. He wants to win but he also wants to get paid.

Darth Tu

8 years, around $15 mill per is my guess.

hunter1909

Good luck winning with 2 players taking so much of the salary cap.

OriginalPouzar

That’s way higher than his market comparables. He should be in the $13.5MM range along with Matthews and MacKinnon, right.

Truth be told, the AAV should come down for anything over 6 years. The over 35 years, clear regression years, should be cheaper on this one.

Durag

I don’t think that’s how it works. Time passes, the cap goes up, the max player salary goes up, top end players’ salaries go up. Matthews and MacKinnon didn’t have to make the case that they’re better than Connor McDavid and deserve to be paid more.

Draisaitl either takes a hometown discount and signs an 8 year deal with the Oilers, demands his market value and takes 8 years from the Oilers at or around the max salary if they can afford it, or goes to market where the vast majority of the league is willing, if maybe not able, to give him 7 years at or around the max salary.

Why would he sign for 4 years anywhere and risk getting injured, potentially leaving ~$50M on the table? Even if he stays healthy and productive, he’s not going to command the same value as a 34 year old UFA as he does as a 30 year old UFA.

OriginalPouzar

Max salary? 20%?

Surely you jest.

I trade McDavid before paying him that, let alone Drai.

His market comparables have been set – sure, maybe there is a touch of an inflationary bump but he should not be getting materially more than Matthews nor MacKinnon and, in fact, as of this summer, he’s clearly below both those players (i put them in the same tier but they are both Hart candidates and Drai is simply not).

Durag

Don’t call me Shirley.

Fair, I had 17% in my head as the max. 20 is a different story. Still I’d consider 13M for Draisaitl the hometown discount. He’d easily find someone to pay him 15+ on the open market.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not so sure any team goes near $15MM X 8 for Drai – he’s an “older” first time UFA lets remember.

Diablo

I think Leon is a smart guy who understands how the cap works. He’ll want a raise but he won’t want to significantly handicap the Oiler’s ability to compete year in and year out for a Cup.

OriginalPouzar

Agreed – hence the $13.5MM (give or take) – hopefully for 5-6 years but, if its 8, its 8.

That gives him a $5MM raise and for many years that will be less production years past his prime – shit, the contract may start during regression years.

YYCOil

I would add a couple thoughts to the discussion.

McLeod looks better on a line with Leon, he doesn’t score on his own line.
Holloway is not a significant impact to the game.
Vinny looks too slow to play 5v5 and be effective.

IMO Holland, hunting ground should be; an effective 3C (++ face off, grit and PK) and another defenseman piece to play the right side, Provorov with some retained would a fantastic get this year.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I wanted Provorov last year. The time to get him was before Ekholm. We don’t need another LHD.

ArmchairGM

Using LHD as the control, and removing the minutes McDavid & Draisaitl were both on the ice:

McDavid + Nurse (no 29): +1.97 goal differential at 5v5 per hour (122 min)
Draisaitl + Nurse (no 97): +0.60 goal differential at 5v5 per hour (298 min)

McDavid + Ekholm (no 29): +1.06 goal differential at 5v5 per hour (340 min)
Draisaitl + Ekholm (no 97): +0.45 goal differential at 5v5 per hour (131 min)

As LT said, there’s a question of repeatability, but if these numbers hold the Oilers are better served running McDavid with Nurse and Draisaitl with Ekholm. This will result in outscoring their opponents by 2.42 G/60.

Continuing with the usual setup of McDavid with Ekholm and Draisaitl with Nurse will result in outscoring their opponents by 1.66 G/60.

Darth Tu

This is a great post. Seeing the numbers laid out by LT in his article and you expanding on it has me sold. I’d like to see them Mix it up a tad and flipping the pairs for McD and Drai.

ArmchairGM

If we look at Expected Goals instead of Actual:

McDavid + Nurse (no 29): +1.68 Xgoal differential at 5v5 per hour (122 min)
Draisaitl + Nurse (no 97): -0.05 Xgoal differential at 5v5 per hour (298 min)

McDavid + Ekholm (no 29): +2.07 Xgoal differential at 5v5 per hour (340 min)
Draisaitl + Ekholm (no 97): +1.57 Xgoal differential at 5v5 per hour (131 min)

Again, having McDavid with Nurse (Draisaitl with Ekholm) looks best: +3.25 xG/60 differential. Running them the other way results in a +2.02 xG/60.

I think you’re on to something, Alan!

mo_guy

Thanks, seeing the McDrai/EkNurse splits was my question after reading the article

Sierra

Thanks for this. LT’s blog was excellent, but I wondered on the influence of McDavid and Drai’s TOI together. Your data points are excellent.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Don’t McEk numbers coincide with the more difficult QoC moments? If so, wouldn’t that account for the lower numbers?

ArmchairGM

About 34% of 97+Ekholm’s minutes were v Elites.

About 31% of 29+Ekholm’s minutes were v Elites.

Unless I’m misreading your question, I don’t think their usage is significantly different.

29+Nurse played slightly more v Elites ~30% compared with 97+Nurse at ~29%.

97+Nurse had 40% OZS% v Elites
29+Nurse had 50% OZS% v Elites
97+Ekholm had 60% OZS% v Elites
29+Ekholm had 54% OZS% v Elites

I can’t really pull anything conclusive from all this. We can dice the data down to salad ingredients I guess, not sure if that’s helpful.

Melman

MacLeod’s work with 29 is fun to watch and seems a good fit, which opens up the trade options of going 2W or 3C and gives a bit more flexibility when deadline hunting.

We’d all like a Ceci upgrade, but barring an Ekholm type deal, apart from Tanev the other oft spoken of options seem like somewhat marginal improvements. And aside from chemistry considerations, one of Ceci’s best abilities is his availability – dude has missed very few games as an Oiler. It is a tricky “problem” to solve.

Last edited 8 months ago by Melman
Scungilli Slushy

Tanev’s health is a worry but he has been pretty durable lately

I don’t see him as a marginal upgrade though, it’s huge. For D that don’t put up a lot of points but play top 4 and pair, he’s one of the best there is still

He’s a very, very smart player, fearless, and his understated style hides that he is also a strong puck mover. Part of why he has a quiet looking game is he is like Lidstrom (not comparing) and he’s outthinking the opponent and disrupting their strategy before they get it going

Darth Tu

Schwarzenegger should have won an Oscar for End of Days. What an incredible movie. 11/10 one of my favourite movies as a kid.

Darth Tu

All of them! 😀

Little Johnny Frostbite

I saw this in the theatre, many eons ago when it first came out. I barely recall, but I know I thought it was terribad, lol…still watched it again at least once on video, and despite only remembering a certain restaurant scene for being creepy af, I really only remember this as a bad flick. 🙂 (and I generally like bad movies)…might have to watch it again to see if I’m wrong and you’re right! 🙂

TravisTDK

Hello all,

I know this post doesn’t have much if anything to do with Foegele but I have seen some comment unhappy with him over the past few days and personally I think he should be back up on the second line with Draisaitl. He has the rambunctious sort of style that Kassian had in the playoffs in 2017 when we all fell in love with him and goes to the net hard. I am not saying he is some one who drives a line but he has proven when he gets the chance he will perform.

That 3rd line keeps getting cratered every game it feels like.

For me with the current group of players it would be

Nuge-Mcdavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele
Holloway-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Gagner/Brown

or

Kane-Mcdavid-Hyman
McLeod-Draisaitl-Forgele
Holloway-Nuge-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Gagner/Brown

I would love to see Holloway at centre but there just isn’t enough minutes to go around.

Just my opinion.

who

I could live with a second line of McLeod Draisaitl Foegele, but if it comes down to a choice between McLeod or Foegele with Draisaitl it’s got to be McLeod, hands down. Foegele just fumbles away too many pucks.
Kane is very similar to Foegele, but he has better hands. The other key difference is that Kane understands what he is. He’s a shooter, and he shoots it at every opportunity. Sometimes Foegele tries to get cute, and he really doesn’t have the skills for it.
I like the lines they used in the 3rd period. If McLeod is on the wing I prefer Holloway at 3C.

TravisTDK

I don’t really disagree with you on the bobbling of pucks but there’s always 2 sides to it. McLeod doesn’t really attack the net the way Foegele does.

Kane definitely knows his role but it doesn’t make Foegele any less valuable. The success that Draisaitl and Foegele have had together is definitely something that needs to be taken into account. It happened last year and this year.

who

Yep.
Foegele attacks the net a lot. Problem is, he rarely gets the puck past the goaltender when he does. A lot of times he loses it before he can even try jamming it in.
He just loses possession too often, in all 3 zones, for me to ever consider him a top 6 forward.

Gollum

This is a great point. Foegele is bobbling pucks because he’s often heading into high traffic (ie. slot or netfront) areas. McLeod’s using his speed to swoop through open spaces. They make an excellent combination of skills.

OriginalPouzar

Foegele and Drai have a long history of success together and Drai’s 5 on 5 numbers, over the course of 3 seasons are better with Feogele than without (controlling for no McDavid).

Foegele, over the course of the last 82 games, has produced 5 on 5 at solid 1st line rates – he’s right up there with Malkin, Gaudreau, Kempe, Miller, Ehlers, etc. for 5 on 5 points over a season’s worth of games.

defmn

Isn’t his scoring rate that high because he can’t sustain it so the coach takes him off of that line as soon as he shows signs of reverting to what he really is which is a third line player?

OriginalPouzar

It’s not even scoring rate – it’s straight points at 5 on 5 – he’s top 40 over the course of a season’s worth of games.

It’s actually more impressive give. At least half his time is with bottom six Oilers, right?

defmn

Disagree. He plays up when he is on his game but as Sierra also commented he is too streaky to hold that position.

OriginalPouzar

Ok, I guess, but you can’t really disagree that he’s produced points online with some high end top line forwards over a real sample size. That is a fact. Streaky or not.

TravisTDK

He was taken off the line basically as Perry came in, which I’m not against Perry on the line. I don’t think it had to do with Foegeles play that he got taken off the line though. I just think a younger faster Foegele that was having success should be on the line. I think Perry would be a good fit on the 3rd line helping those younger players too.

defmn

Perry, McLeod, Foegele & a little bit of Holloway kind of patch together to fill that 6th top 6 spot. None of them have proven they can hold it but as a group they kind of, sort of manage to fill the spot in spurts but it remains a spot open to be claimed imo.

Sierra

I don’t think Foegele would score at 1st or 2nd line rates if he was playing entire seasons as a top 6 winger. He is not consistent enough over longer stretches of games.

OriginalPouzar

He’s got actual first line production, actuall points, over the course of the last 82 games – much of that without the benefit of other first line lineman’s – playing with the Oilers’ bottom six.

straight points at 5 on 5.

Gollum

OP, you’re beating your head against a wall. In spite of the numbers showing that he’s been productive, people will insist that he’s not a top 6 player because he doesn’t score like Leon. I think people don’t realize what top 6 is.

defmn

I think people think he is not a top six player because he has never been played in that role over any length of time by any of the head coaches he has played for.

That or because Holland is said by pretty much every pundit in the business to be looking for somebody to play RW at this trade deadline – and it is a position that today’s post mentions as being in need of an upgrade.

From the beginning of the year, we talked about goaltending, No. 2 D, a scoring winger and a No. 4 center.

Numbers are important but rarely tell the whole story.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Top-6 motor.

Bottom-6 hands.

I call him Warren Fumble, lovingly, for a reason. And I like the guy. But he’s not a top-6 player on a bonafide contender.

OriginalPouzar

For all his struggles, which are real and spectacular, I think Connor Brown has to play nightly over Sam Gagner.

The only reason Gagner was not tagged with another minus last night is because he was able to get off the ice after a horrid shift and the top line stepped on to pick up the minus which was a result of the prior line’s play.

Gagner at the top of his game creates some offence from the depths of the lineup but he’s not doing that and he is, by far, the weakest defensive forward on the team and, right now, his is slow and ineffective and a liabilty.

I know, i know, Brown was bad last game and was cuplable on a goal against at 5 on 5 and I think was on for PK goal against but that was one game – he’s been lights out in both departments (even on the PK through the team’s struggles, he had been clean until last game).

Truth be told a forward needs to be added to push both of them out of the lineup but, until then, Brown is a better player than Gagner, in my opinion.

leadfarmer

Need to go out and get a player to push both off the lineup

fishman

Agreed neither player deserves to be in the lineup. Call up Erne or Hambiln (Lavoie?) until a transaction brings a better bottom 6 player in. Other than taking face-offs I don’t think Ryan is effective at centre.

OriginalPouzar

Erne isn’t better than Brown.

Hamblin is hurt.

Lavoie isn’t even a dominant player at the AHL level in recent weeks – his play has leveled off and he’s making 2-way mistakes.

cowboy bill

At least Erne has scored a goal at the NHL level and a nice one at that, plus he is more physical than Brown. I don’t know why they ever sent Hamblin down, they need a fourth line center.

Darth Tu

Yup, A burly 4C that PKs is my main want.

Janmark-XXX-Ryan

That’s how I’d run things. Brown fired into the sun and Gagner the backup that can slide in.

ArmchairGM

Agreed. A 4th line with Dowd and Sundqvist would be nice!

DevilsLettuce

Nope, you don’t change a winning line up to put Brown back in.

Brown has not been a NHL level player since March of 2022.

He didn’t score a goal for Ottawa for his last 14 games.

He never scored in Washington as short as it was.

Has 1 playoff goal in 20 games.

Brown should never see the ice for the Oilers again if they’re serious about winning.

Gagner can be replaced by a better NHL player, which Brown is not.

OriginalPouzar

I disagree as, in my opinion, Brown is better than Gagner and, in particular in recent times – Gagner has been nothing but a liability since his injury.

Sierra

I agree with you on this OP and for me it’s not even close. Brown over Gagner and preferably someone else over both if Brown can’t start scoring.

cowboy bill

Erne is even better than Brown & Gagner.

OriginalPouzar

Right now he might be better than Gagner as Sam is a liability.

I take brown over Erne every day despite Brown’s mistake last game.

Brantford Boy

Having watched the last several seasons with McDavid playing with Barrie/Bouchard the captain definitely likes to play/defer it back to the Dmen in times of trouble and for that offensive dynamic/threat. I think McDavid knows the value of the point shot, and have noticed others using this lately, mostly McLeod. Nurse and Ceci do not have that shot. McDavid is always looking for that one timer (among everything else he’s looking at) and if it’s not there he does something else magical. We have the players to play the net front presence with that shot coming, mostly Hyman on the McDavid line, although Nuge should be credited for his witchcraft rebound positioning for the snap/wrist shot near the slot. Yes Kane and Perry are better at it, and may get the opportunity, but I think we agree the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman is the way forward.

Swapping the D-pairings gives the shutdown of Nurse/Ceci but that’s where we run into a little problem come playoffs. Bouchard is not ready for prime-time with Nurse either, he needs Ekholm, the vereran to cover those mistakes. I don’t feel Draisaitl’s line would use Bouchard’s ability (aka Bouch-Bomb) after entering the O-zone. They would certainly benefit from the breakout passes.

Then there’s the back checking component. Nurse/Ceci are generally in good position for the transition South. I find Bouchard a little less reliable, and for any mistakes by the blue I’d rather McDavid doubling back rather than Draisaitl on the turnover.

dustrock

I have a few questions, I am not sure if publicly-available stats can get this granular:

(1) Can we break down the numbers even further into playoff-vs-non-playoff teams? Which pair plays better against the Vegas, Nucks, Bruins type teams?

(2) How does this team play with the lead?

(3) Which D pairing with McDavid is more likely to score first?

(4) How does this team play when trailing? Which D pairing performs better when tied or trailing?

ArmchairGM

Very interesting questions, and I don’t have any answers. The only thing that comes to mind is that the further you break down the data, the less reliable it becomes. You’d pretty much have to be watching game tape alongside the data to form any meaningful conclusions.

Scungilli Slushy

These are the things I want to know. Especially who does what against strong teams

Games like the last one tell us nothing much, except the Oilers are a better team and the puck went in with their pushback

Who has the time to verify, but I’ve always felt some players aren’t as good when it’s on, and it’s not all about points. It’s about dictating the game and outscoring

Connor dictates almost every game. Drai gets points but can be quiet or very sloppy most of the game and put up a few, sometimes they win games

The issue is the amount of pressure you face coming back from excessive turnovers, and how that is far more tiring than attacking. It adds up; hurts most in playoffs

It kills momentum for the the others, and shift to shift momentum. Drai is my example, but there are a few like this on the team, Drai pushes at least, the others don’t and completely disappear in games where it’s not going their way

OriginalPouzar

So these second period are officially a think, right?

What’s the deal? Are they not able to deal with the long change? Its got to be more than that, right?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Quality of Comp and the long change.

Pre-ASG schedule was light aside from Leafs and Philly. Overall skill level on post-ASG teams is higher and its also showing up on the PK and with goalering. Taking a bit of time to adjust to the speed.

cowboy bill

They are just resting up for the third period.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I think Bouchard should be playing when the McDavid line is on the ice. He’s one of the most offensively talented D in the league, and when they are pressuring the other team in their end, I’d rather the puck be coming to him up top than Nurse or Ceci. Bouchard is getting very deft at getting that shot through the traffic.

OriginalPouzar

This is indeed a thing.

At 5 on 5, Bouchard has played 546 minutes with McDavid and 341 without.

McDavid has played 546 with Bouchard and 296 without.

WhenConnorSmiles

What also impresses me this year is his mobility and stickhandling around like a forward. Last year he seemed stunned and confused or something at times. He’s become more than I hoped for this year.

hunter1909

Oilers make the finals and it won’t be the Leafs.

The next game up = Boston who are certainly in the finals prediction mix. And these Oilers are good enough to play with them as equals.

cowboy bill

Bruins were in the mix for the finals last season and blew it in the first round. They obviously can be had.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Boston is a mirage.

They ran hot to start last year and faded hard. Worse depth this year.

Bruce McCurdy

If by “to start” you mean the first 86 games, I agree. They did run hot to start.

This year their all-strengths PDO has collapsed all the way from 1040 to 1026 & they are clearly on the decline. 😐

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Backwards looking.

Boston is a bunch of no-names after Pastrnak-Marchand. They got to load up on supremely weak comp to start the year and have the 3rd toughest down the stretch. They are playing too many guys, too far up the forward depth chart and as the season ages they will expose a very overrated defense group that was sheltered by guys who’ve retired. Their 2nd and 3rd lines have regressed scoring wise for a bit and will tire out. That puts more pressure on PastChand to outperform while asking Coyle to lift a heavier load.

Take the under points wise on DeBrusk, Zacha, Frederic and JVR down the stretch.

Boston is on the very wrong side of a Sharks level decline. Bits and pieces sellers by the end of next year.

hunter1909

Last season Boston were the mirage as they Canucked their way to a silly great record that no one thinks is on a par with any of the 1976-79 Montreal teams.

Nevertheless, they always have great structure and bring up players like an assembly line.

Probably several Bruins that would make the Oilers a better team, up and down the lineup.

Scungilli Slushy

Panthers are the best in the East. Their GF GA and Goal Diff are strong

I know GF-GA=GD but what I look at is how many they have scored and let in, then the GD

The Jets have a strong Goal Diff, but have a low GF total. Trouble scoring is not a good playoff omen. Without Helly they’d be Smelly

BornInAGretzkyJersey

LT, to your question of the day.

I think it’s likely a question of style, more than ability. Those numbers are, for all intents and purposes, basically a coin flip.

My guess is, Coffey wants the duo who are best able to see developing offensive plays, and make them happen, playing with Connor. Hence Ekholm and Bouchard.

LMHF#1

I would rather match the defensive pair to whoever the opposition is sending out as forwards, but considering the coach doesn’t work that way, for the playoffs, hopefully they arrive here:

91-29-Acquired Scorer
93-97-18
37-71-90
13-55-89

14-2
25-Acquired Defender
27-5/73 (Depends if Ceci goes in trade for said defender)

You play 25 + new guy with McDavid. Ekholm and Bouchard with Leon’s crew.

The thing about the playoffs is that those two pairs will likely play about 50 minutes on any night that is even remotely difficult. And that’s fine. It’s the playoffs.

I’ve also flipped the line order because playoff Leon is one of the best to do it, and has routinely outplayed #97. Connor had better catch up to Leon’s playoff pace this season. It’s about time.

Bruce McCurdy

McDavid (narrowly) outscored Draisaitll the last 2 years. The pace you mention was established way back in 2017, the gap gradually closing since.

jtblack

to add a Top line RW and a Top 4 D at the deadline, you are talking about multiple high picks and a few prospects (Broberg, etc) out the door.

Not disagreeing with you, but the price to add for those 2 positions would be dear.

LMHF#1

Certainly. I’m all in for that. They need to get on the SC board. They’re multiple years late to the party.

They have the ‘talent’ to do it. The job now is to make sure there are no anchors and no holes in the boat.

who

I don’t think it matters which d pair plays with McDavid. I think it’s more important to get the forward lines sorted out.
I was at the game yesterday and thought there were 2 noticeable differences in the 3rd period.
1. Draisaitl didn’t really move his legs until he started centering his own line. When he plays the wing with McDavid, Draisaitl becomes a stationary hockey player. He kind of reminds me of one of those men on an old time hockey board game. The ones that could just spin around in one spot Draisaitl can make plays standing still, but he’s not nearly as dynamic when his feet aren’t moving.
2. McLeod is a very good fit in the top 6 and makes the Draisaitl line better. His speed creates a lot of room for his linemates, and he has the hands to make plays with pace. Very underrated player. I still don’t understand why he’s not the prime zone entry option on PP2.

Bruce McCurdy

McLeod was outstanding last night. He was all over the puck like a dog on a meaty bone, his possession battles along the wall were instrumental in both the second & fifth goals, & his rush/drawn penalty & subsequent pass set the stage for the third. 1 lonely assist but a richly-deserved +3.

danny

McLeod has been the most consistent guy on the ice in terms of responsible puck play since December. While the rest of the team revert back to forcing bad passes and unnessecary shot attempts, McLeod is making the right play consistently.

This team is way better when the puck stays in the offensive zone and the forecheck can reload because of predictable puck movement. It’s the senseless offensive zone turnovers that really hurt this team imo.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

I don’t know how to deploy players but I am increasingly confident Knoblauch does. I also really liked Lowetide’s “Hurry flurry worry” so I’ll answer it in that manner:

Hurry: Knoblach doesn’t waste time making the right in-game changes regardless of how they start or practice.
Flurry: 3 goals in less time that it takes to announce them.
Worry: Who, me? 

Don’t mind those games. Feels good to be on the other side. How often for a decade did the Oilers get beat like that and we wouldn’t suggest Anaheim or Dallas or whomever it was needed to get their shit together because they didn’t play a full 60. No, we took it with full acknowledgement that they were a better team who decided to turn it on. I don’t love these Oiler second periods, but 82 games is a lot of games, and in some respects there’s an emotional load management required through a season as well. This team knows it can rope a dope. Once in a while it might bite them in the ass but on balance, this team knows what it has and when it needs to push. 

Ok, Rant:

One thing that came out of yesterday’s game was a tailor-made case study as to why offside review is bull****, despite there not being one. Sportsnet never bothered giving us a proper replay (shocking) but I don’t think McDavid was offside when it was called late and he was in alone. There you have it: the greatest player of his generation on a breakaway against a goalie in his first ever game. You can’t really engineer a more likely goal scenario, and yet once that whistle blows you can’t un-crack that egg. Very well could have been onside but a missed call “likely” costs us a goal. Let it go, or let it all go to review. What? You can’t let every zone entry go to review? Then either accept the chance of human error both ways or create a system that doesn’t rely on humans. 

Spartacus

2 things:

I think the Hurry, Flurry & Worry bit is fun and hope it becomes a Game Day feature.

The offside review is the worst rule ever applied.

“If you have to review the play for 15 minutes to see if it was offside, it probably didn’t make a difference.” – roughly paraphrased from a McDavid quote

The NHL is far and away the stupidest league in existence.

The league has been trying different ideas to increase scoring yet they introduce a rule that only takes away goals… while making the linesmen seem completely unnecessary and inept.

Bruce McCurdy

All those minutes & hours studying slo-mo replays of an offside challenge has me more convinced than ever that NHL linesmen are good at their craft, & should be trusted.

I especially like the ones where a gorgeous goal is taken off the board & the 7-minute review process shows us the play at blueline 26 times but never bothers to show the goal again.

Melman

With Yotes playing 3 in 4 and flying in from Denver the night before, it was the perfect game for Coach K to test stuff out. Then after 40, he flipped back to what he knew should get the win. Well done Coach.

His demeanour on bench looks like a guy who is waiting for a bus he knows is coming, and has no concern about its arrival time.

Bruce McCurdy

Reason #1 why I hate the offside challenge: it can only take goals off the board, can never add them.

John Chambers

Thing is, the offside challenge enables linesmen to be more liberal with their calls as they’ll no longer be hung out to dry on tv if they’re wrong.
I’m not sure what I hate more: actual offside calls being overturned with video replay, or linesman conservatively blowing the whistle on on-side plays to cover their butts.

cowboy bill

If any challenge is wrong, then there should be a goal awarded, forget the penalty. Good idea Bruce.

Spartacus

I hope someone who lives in the house in the opening photo is able to push the river.

If ever a river needed pushing, it’s that one; the house appears to be in the river.

Munny 2.0

well, I enjoyed the comment….

John Chambers

There were times in Oiler history where a 30-goal scorer was the club’s top producer by a mile (Arnott, Smyth, Penner).
Evander Kane is on pace for 33 goals. There is debate, although it had quiesced, as to whether he even belongs in our top-6.
We are blessed.

jtblack

I think people are forgetting, almost all of Kane’s goals are 5×5 goals. That has value! Especially come playoff time.

Even Strength Goals this season (Quant Hockey).

HYMAN – 24
KANE – 18
MCDAVID – 15
DRAISATL – 14

John Chambers

He scores out of nowhere.

That goal he scored to tie Game 4 vs L.A. last year was like a dagger through Korpisalo and the Kings. They broke then and there.

Red wolf

What about McDavid with and without Ekholm numbers?
McDavid does indeed float all boats.

cowboy bill

Would a Nurse-Bouchard pairing be something to look at? I know if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
But they haven’t tried.

Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Desharnais
Kulak-Ceci

I know Ek & Des play a lot of minutes together on the PK. However, they may be a solid shutdown pair 5 vs 5 and we know Kulak & Ceci play well together. I’m just thinking, why not give Doc & Bouch another look? I know Nurse and McDavid are good buddies and I also have witnessed how Bouchard and McDavid are at another level altogether.

Last edited 8 months ago by cowboy bill
godot10

It is ill-advised to play one’s elite shutdown defenseman with one elite offensive defensively suspect defenseman.

It was a disaster to start the season.

cowboy bill

Isn’t Ekholm an elite shut down defenseman? And Bouchard is playing better defensively since the start of the season.

leadfarmer

Well if everyone’s numbers keep getting cratered with Brown, the only solution we’ve come up with is keep playing Brown (except for last game)

I think the Wild are gonna get that last wild card spot so I don’t think Fleury becomes available. Looks like our goalering is gonna have to do.

Melman

Would also love to see The Flower here for a Stanley run, buuuuut would he want to come to Edm to be likely/possibly the backup vs. say the Canes where he’d have a better chance of starting?

A Kane sandwich with Drai in the middle would be something else. If only Patty could reach out to a friend to ask about what’s it’s like to play here😆

Last edited 8 months ago by Melman
DevilsLettuce

Florida is winning the East.

DevilsLettuce

Detroit is going to slow down alil and those future considerations Stevie owes Kenny are going to result in Kane’s ppg play coming over for the drive. 4 Harts, the best there is, the best there was, the best there ever will be.