It’s spring in central Alberta. I went for a long walk yesterday and it was so good. I thought a lot about the Oilers and their Stanley Cup chances. In the grand scheme of things, a Stanley Cup doesn’t make a bit of difference but it’s a lovely distraction in a world that delivers both the profoundly beautiful and searing pain in seemingly equal measure. It’s Hockey Night in Canada.
THE NUMBERS
I believe the Oilers will win the division with a victory over the Canucks tonight. The point last night had importance, although two points who have been better. The Coyotes had a weird 24 hours, but that young talent had nothing to lose and the Oilers were a little sloppy (that rebound on the first goal went to a most unfortunate spot on the ice). Any road, it’s a big game tonight and I’m wondering if Connor McDavid appears and leads his team to the Pacific crown. That’s a nice headline in a season with some impressive moments already banked.
I’m feeling good about this team. I’ll be honest, a game without McDavid has far less appeal for me, but these two games have given us a good look at how tight the band can be without the lead singer. Man they can hammer. Best non-McDavid team since he got here, don’t think I’ll get much push back on that statement.
I thought Evander Kane had some real jump, Dylan Holloway too. Nurse with Stecher was a success. Adam Henrique scored a goal and had three HDSC, and Derek Ryan had a couple as well. The Oilers don’t have anyone from the Lennart Petrell family, or the Gaetan Haas family, or going back to 2006 the Marc Pouliot family. All the hands on deck are proven and have been on many voyages, with the exception of young Holloway who has shown well in these two games. I think this roster is set now, the lines will juggle but the pairings will remain as we’ve seen them for much of the season.
In my article at The Athletic today, I write about the lore that surrounds winning. It’s above. I’m proud of it, expresses some things I’ve mentioned here but in a more formal setting.
There’s not much left to say now, ladies and men.
You cut the apples, you make the dough, you pile in the cinnamon and six hundred pounds of brown sugar and butter, put the oatmeal on top and then wait for the apple crisp to cook. Have plenty of ice cream available, don’t burn yourself because of impatience, and enjoy the experience.
Is this a Stanley Cup spring? Hell if I know. I do know it’s possible and that’s worth noting now, today.
POST-CHRISTMAS SCORING IN BAKERSFIELD (PROSPECTS)
- Dylan Holloway 18, 10-6-16 (.89 pts-game)
- Raphael Lavoie 46, 18-21-39 (.85 pts-game)
- Philip Broberg 37, 4-25-29 (.78 pts-game)
- Max Wanner 33, 7-9-16 (.48 pts-game)
- Carter Savoie 40, 8-7-15 (.38 pts-game)
- Tyler Tullio 43, 7-7-14 (.33 pts-game)
- Matvey Petrov 38, 7-4-11 (.29 pts-game)
- Xavier Bourgault 30, 3-5-8 (.27 pts-game)
- Jayden Grubbe 42, 3-4-7 (.17 pts-game)
I always track the kids after Christmas and there are some pleasant numbers here. Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg are NHL-ready and then some, Raphael Lavoie has earned 250 at-bats and then we’ll see. The revelation here is Max Wanner outscoring the young forwards in his rookie season! Credit to the young blue, but I believe it also shows the organization has stifled the young forward talents.
There’s so many they can’t get enough playing time. It’s like golfing 12 times a year. How are you going to get better? Oilers are a smart organization, I suspect the Condors will run these young players far more in 2024-25. What does that mean? You’ll see Bakersfield send away some quality veteran forwards over the summer. Playing Seth Griffith over Xavier Bourgault is simply unwise.
New for The Athletic: How did Oilers’ rookie pros perform in 2023-24 AHL season?
https://theathletic.com/5412537/2024/04/13/oilers-ahl-rookie-2024-stats/
First time poster, long time reader. I would like to start by thanking you, Lowetide. Thank you for providing a forum where we fans can gather safely and share our thoughts about a team we love to follow. I’m almost 50 so I’ve seen it all with the Oilers.
I would also like to thank the other posters. So many smart and insightful comments by you all that I appreciate and can’t wait to read, daily.
Thanks for having me.
Welcome, Mato!
Summarizing!
Stefan was held soupless in a 6-1 victory as Portland takes a 2-0 series lead.
Kings score late, looks like they will win over the Ducks.
Not for sure but probable LA is in Edmonton next weekend. Vancouver could still win the conference if they win out and Dallas loses, but likely they will draw Nashville.
Vegas has a critical game at home tomorrow against Colorado who will be playing on a back to back after a big loss to Winnipeg.
If the Knights win that game, they will be one point back of Los Angeles both with 2 games remaining.
Vegas plays Chicago and Anaheim.
Los Angeles plays Minnesota and Chicago.
Vegas could take third place if Los Angeles stumbles against Minnesota.
Los Angeles owns all the tie breakers.
The Oilers just blew out Colorado and Vegas (the latter without McDavid) but a regulation tie with the Yotes (where they didn’t even try) and a one-goal loss to Nucks on the 2nd of back to backs, and 3 in 4, without McDavid and its catastrophe.
I don’t think it’s a catastrophe but being a little concerned is alright. Also if they didn’t try against the Coyotes,that’s an even bigger concern.
It was a 2 goal loss to Vancouver.
I think he’s not counting the empty net goal.
Ouch.
Canucks sweep Oilers this year, and for their efforts, they get Nash first round – that’s a nice bit of travel for them
My concern now is we seem to be faltering when we should be ramping up. Two games with big implications and we get one point out of four on home ice. I think this game was more important for us than it was Vancouver. They needed to prove to themselves they can beat Vancouver. I think this game was a disappointing outcome considering everything.
Meh – the Oilers lost a one goal game to a top team without McDavid playing their 3rd in 4 nights and, with a bounce or a break they could easily have won.
But they didn’t win.
Relying on a bounce or a break is not a good winning strategy.
It seemed to me Kane had most shots on net by far, but Holloway was second.
Ah well. Now we can rest everyone the next three.
I
They were tired tonight for sure. Thought they played alright but were a step behind at moments and couldn’t finish. Time to rest up, even if they are playing games, the big players should be on minute limits.
Why pull the goalie then??? What a waste..
It was strange that Stu was in the bench a couple seconds before the 6th skater even touched the ice.
I basically yell at my TV anytime I see the goalie being pulled with more than a min left & it’s not an offensive zone draw / clear possession in the -zone.
Feels like I’ve watched it burn us 10x more than I’ve seen it pay off.
(I vaguely remember us pulling the goalie with 2min left when Hemsky was our best player, getting scored on & then scoring a goal that no longer mattered about a min later… we lost.)
This is not how you close out a season before a Cup run. Maybe if you’re 2 time champs going for 3 or something…but this is not peak anything. Assuming you can just fire it up all of a sudden is incredibly arrogant.
Time to fire the coach.
He has clearly lost the plot.
So you think this is how they should enter the post season being swept by a divisional rival on home ice?
No I agree with you. We should fire the coach. He’s clearly holding out a healthy McDavid and if McDavid plays they win tonight.
Knoblauch mailed it in by benching his superstar. He told his team winning was optional to resting and the team takes its queues from the Coach.
Time to fire him.
This is bizarre. I’m not sure if you are serious.
Definitely half not serious 😉 I enjoy the odd troll when folks get too close to
the ledge.
I don’t actually want to fire the Coach but yea once the decision was made to
load manage the Captain, with the schedule is the way it is, yea winning was declared optional. So we’re left putting our faith in Coach KK that they ramp it up in a week.
Risky strategy but I’m game for it. They went into last year winning like what 21 of their last 22 games or something and injuries bedeviled em. Mine as well
let some dudes catch a breath here.
These guys are good enough to put the pedal down when they need to.
Who said fire the coach?
If they’d have fired the coach after Vegas last playoffs like I’d said, they win a division title going away.
This on the players. No coach coaches lazy shots without follow up.
You are mad about the play? Or just the loss?
it may be arrogant to expect wins just cause you want them
Their lack of effort the last 3 of the last 4 games when they should be building to peak for 16 wins is deeply concerning.
And having a complete lack of pride against that coasting Canucks team to get swept for the season…not exactly a winning attitude.
They may have a winning attitude but did not win. You are viewing everything through the lens of win or did not win.
The truth is in the middle. You don’t win every game.
“Almost an elbow”.
If Kane’s was a penalty then surely that was also.
Result of this game doesn’t matter in big scheme of things. Would love to beat Nucks but lots of time from bottom lines tonight and they are holding their own. Kane getting ramped up. Mcdavid getting rested.. Also this is 3rd game in 4 nights..
Weak call on Kane.
Massive kill
Need to win in reg don’t forget.
Bullshit call. The guy went flamingo. But notice how a hard forecheck disrupts? How’s about trying harder, there, eh?
Carrick stripping Petterson easily was a delight
Now we need Skinner to channel his inner Fuhr!
I said I wasn’t gonna stress about this game. Had friends over for the first. I was just gonna enjoy the ride, not caring if we passed van for first.
But here I am, on my second scotch and wanting to stomp these guys!!!
Can’t believe how sneaky dirty these buggers are! Stickholding and slashing to the hands galore!
Come on, Kaner. Drag em into the fight!
Haha. It’s impossible to watch without getting involved emotionally. I’ve tried!
Easily my favourite comment of the evening!
I thought the Oilers played soft all period up to the goal. Soft breakouts, passes off, intensity down. Lost multiple puck battles. The line turned it on for that one shift resulting in that goal.
Vancouver isn’t that good. Well coached, some set plays, simple but effective board work, and they get open. They seem to have lucky horseshoes buried somewhere.
Never changing the PP is having a negative affect now. Without Connor, there is Leon and a lot of lost players. A few set plays would be good right now. There is a lesson here.
Good save by Skinner late in the period. Need to carry our momentum into the third.
He’s has trouble with that shot from Messier’s office. That one was close. I thought it had a good chance to spill out behind him.
Yes I notice he seems to lose his net on. That angle.
This game is so much more enjoyable with the sound off. Does anyone successfully get video to line up with Michaels on radio?
I’d note that Stu had a much better angle on that Garland shot vs the one on Lafferty.
Stayed square and didn’t overcommit to the right handed shot.
BOOM!!! There you go, Kaner! Now drag the rest of the team into the fight!!!
Great goal late in the period. Lets keep pressing them.
Big goal by Kane unless that was high.
Their backup is outplaying our starter. Stu has got to fix his body language after goals. Looks like he is always mad looking up after every goal or waving his arms. We look out of sync tonight. Making lots of simple mistakes. We need to get a goal and get our emotion back in the game. We almost seem a little fragile tonight.
Note gonna lie. The probability of losing all four regular season games to these guys is off putting. Cringe worthy even. Will they be the next western team to best us in the playoffs??? Dear Gord I hope not. The last two teams that did won the cup… 😩
The first three dont count because it was pre kk. This one doesn’t count because no mcd. Unless we win.
This canucks team reminds me of the flames a few years ago. Miss the playoffs the year before, play above themselves in the reg season, get first, then get fed by the oilers in a wild 5 game series.
Not gonna lie. The high probability of losing all four regular season games to these guys is off putting. Will they be the next western team to best us in the playoffs??? Dear god I hope not… the last two teams that did won the damn cup.
I hope that hit wakes up Kane. We’re just not up to top gear. A split second off especially in the D zone.
Looking tired. More mentally than physically, too.
The Oilers appear, likes some of us, to have mixed feelings about winning this game.
Time to send them a message. They’ve been running around all game.
Why do I find it so hard to listen to DeBrusk?? Haha
Why do I always have the impression on HNIC that DeBrusk couldn’t possibly be our honetown colour guy.
McLeod with a fugly shift there.
This is weak and embarrassing.
The offence looks very plain tonight.
This is a big game. But 5 games in 7 nights is almost an impossibility to win-out. Are they resigned to finishing 2nd and opting to keep McD rested and healed? Or is this injury worse than let on? Or given the slog of 5in7, do they want a fresh Connor for the second half of it?
They already didn’t win-out the 5 in 7 with the OTL to Arizona.
Obv. My point is that it may not be fruitful let alone realistic to try to get the most possible points out of the remaining schedule.
Very impressive pk by our team!!
I had commented early on in this powerplay’s iteration that Kane was not looking comfortable at the bumper spot.
Seems Nobby wasn’t happy either and has him on boards tonight.
I’d rather see 71 on PP1. Speed demon
At least they’re 50% on the high sticks.
Canucks 22 hits Good Guys 18. Let’s change this.
We are the bigger team and we are being out hit.
being outhit usually means we have the puck more
Great start but it seems that when we dominate but don’t score we get into a lull and let teams back in it. Didn’t like that we got caught thrice with their two forwards passing back to the man high, who was uncovered. Gotta clean up that backcheck. The goal was unfortunate. Hope they don’t get deflated and start cheating.
Keep working, fellas. Two periods left. Grind them down and force them into mistakes.
That gap by Nurse on the GA was horrendous. That pairing also gave up another five bell alarm chance earlier in the period. Woof.
Stu was covering the left side boards there… Totally lost his net
Oof Stu that is the definition of deflating and way too passive by all involved
Was just thinking: That’s some trust fort he 3rd line putting them on in the last minute of a period.
Evidence of the “bad” with Dylan Holloway – bad angle on the zone entry defence – small mistakes that coaches WILL notice.
Maybe,but what the hell was Nurse doing. We already have a goalie. He has got to stand up on Lafferty with 20 seconds left in the period.
Stu probably shouldn’t be beat far side by a right handed shot on that play.
True but I think hes a distant 3rd to Nurse and Stu fault wise on that one.
Nurse needs to back right into Skinner next, he was almost there this time.
That’s exactly what happens when you play a period that way.
Brutal.
Play a period what way? Dominant at 5 on 5 until the last 5 minutes?
I’ve explained before that taking a million shots from low percentage spots and controlling the puck because you don’t drive the middle while also not scoring any goals is in no way dominant.
You can keep failing to see it all you want.
NST has the HDCF at 12-2 for the Oilers in the 1st and the heat map has them getting right up in there.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=21280&view=limited
8-2 high danger shot attempts in the first period at 5 on 5 doesn’t line up with your eye test.
Maybe you are failing to see an honest representation of the play.
Our goalie is damn good also! Difference in early season and now is team is playing better in front of goalies they trust. Both goalies have not been the negative story for longer than I can remember now!