It was there, ladies and men. A 2-0 lead in the first series of spring was out there, available, it was in the cards. Vegas Golden Knights grabbed it, the Edmonton Oilers were also in photo. You can lay blame, and I know you will, but the bottom line is the bottom line. Opportunity missed on a night when all the heavens and earth were there for the taking.
REVIEWING THE GOALS-AGAINST
I find that the best way to start an argument is to inform the authorities about what you saw. Did you know that eyewitness accounts are routinely incorrect? We remember little, really. Video helps but I’m going to give you my version of each goal against last night and many/most of you will disagree with the conclusions. If you want to avoid the verbal skip down to the end where I write ‘conclusions’ and it’ll save you time.
GA No. 1: Evan Bouchard sends a simple pass off the boards meant for Warren Foegele who inexplicably exited the zone without the puck. In hindsight, Bouchard’s area pass could have been better, and he could have lugged the puck out of the zone. That said, the shot itself from Adrian Kempe was high in the slot and Stuart Skinner had a clear view. Credit to Kempe, but you’d like the goalie to stop that one.
GA No. 2: Warren Foegele sends a shot on the LAK net and it’s quickly jailbreak the other way. Evan Bouchard was not inside his man (Kempe again) but the real story of this goal is an exceptional mid-air deflection by the goal scorer. For me, you can’t blame anyone on that one, not Foegele, Bouchard or Skinner.
GA No. 3: A 200-foot race between Drew Doughty and Warren Foegele. Foegele was unaware there was a race. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins couldn’t match Doughty’s speed at that point, but did alter the shot. It’s possible that impacted the actual goal, but we’ll never know. I don’t blame Skinner, but that’s another save you’d like. Credit to Doughty, that’s a miserable situation for the goaler.
GA No. 4: Kevin Fiala’s flutter puck from the wall up toward the blue line reminded me of Aaron Ward’s goal at the beginning of Game 7 SCF. Skinner was screened and I don’t fault the goalie, that was a fluke in my opinion.
GA No. 5: Darnell Nurse wanders just a little and that’s all it took. Great shot by Anze Kopitar, I give him full credit.
Conclusions
It’s always about the goaltenders and Stuart Skinner is going to get criticized heavily today all over media and social media. That’s the job. I don’t believe he was the reason Edmonton lost the game, and do believe he’ll rebound and win the series. One thing about Skinner this year is that his performance, his presence and his calm responses to tough questions tell us that he has the mental side of the game down. No guarantees it goes his way, but I’m confident he is going to give himself every chance to win the day.
I think the Oilers lost for two reasons. First, several examples above where Edmonton players were too loose on coverage, were slow to recognize danger or simply didn’t take care of the puck. All fixable and I do think we’ll see a much cleaner effort in Game 3.
Second, the Kings scored on at least a couple of brilliant passes that looked something like set pieces. I suspect they were designed to take advantage of Edmonton’s weaknesses. Warren Foegele may not have caught Doughty, but the Kings game plan appears to be focused on taking advantage of uncertainty. Foegele tries, but was slow to recognize that play. He needs to be better.
The winning goal was a gorgeous headman pass and tip to spring Kopitar. He’s smart as a whip but that for me is a set play designed to take advantage of a wandering defenseman. Edmonton has them.
Finally, the Kings are targeting Evan Bouchard and he is going to get challenged in this series. That pass he sent should have been on Foegele’s stick and not to an area. Bouchard needs to protect that puck far more than he did on the first GA.
All of that said, I still have the Oilers winning the series. These young men didn’t take advantage of an opportunity last night, but have enough skill to build another opportunity in Los Angeles.
We’ll have a long look at last night on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We’ll have reports from the rink, a look at the NFL draft and discuss Jack Campbell’s performance in Game 1 of the Condors series against Ontario Reign last night. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Does anyone else find playoff Foegele frantic and therefore substantially less effective? He’s always “high energy” but there’s been quite a few instances where he just seems out of control. There was one 2-on-2 where he stickhandled like mad and then fired a shot pass about a foot off the ice past Nuge’s knees under no particular amount of pressure.
Yakupov and the bees.
He needs to calm down or he’ll be off that line.
The anchor to the Oilers was lost for me a few days. It’s back and it’s glorious. I thought of many posters and LTs thoughts while watching the games. It’s a series, enjoy it!
Weird…for last 3 days everytime I refreshed there was no new post since gane 1 post. Thought site was down.
There appear to be some caching issues. It seems to happen every playoffs when the sever load is up.
Thanks for all you do. Morning coffee just wouldn’t be the same…nor late night insomnia.
Same, but I found I could access the posts through the links LT tweets out.
Listening to coach (and Stauff’s leading question), wouldn’t be surprised to see Kane elevated in to the top 6 shortly.
In the defensive zone exit on the half boards with pressure, Kane is vastly inferior to Foegle, to my eye. Though neither are stellar, I get that it’s important to keep up the meritocracy for ice time. Still, it was 1 game and Foegle has been fine.
Mr F makes a lot of coverage mistakes and is weak on the puck, might be that
I am sure that they will come out with energy tomorrow but will they protect the Royal Road as Knight said, and protect the puck? Protect Stu?
If they do, they can handle those guys. They should end this asap
Knight said none of the goals last night crossed the Royal Road. I believe.
They still need to be aware. It is a weak point
The Oilers were tricked into playing the Kings game last night, instead of their own style.
From my eye, the Oil are trying to play too fast and giving away the puck more often than making successful passes to their own players.
If the team utilizes their natural skating speed and make short crisp passes after surveying the situation a little they will be ok.
But if they continue to rely on Hail Mary long bombs then it’s going to get ugly.
With Doughty’s success at Skinner Rolling on his goal look for more of the same next game, it will easily be the most physical, nastiness that has been seen so far.
Might want to get a few warriors that were scratched into tomorrows roster, it’s gonna be rockem sockem robots.
My take is that the first two games have been a good of example of the fact that we’re far too prone to impose narrative on relatively random events.
While I don’t discount LAK’s use of set plays and other strategies exploiting Oilers weakness, and some nice execution of the same last night, I’d still count a solid 3 of the LAK goals in game 2 as being heavily reliant on puck luck.
Skinner didn’t have a good game, but he also isn’t an .808 goalie either.
If puck doesn’t flutter for Kempe mid-air just right, or the Doughty breakaway doesn’t bounce for Doughty (did he even shoot?), or the midair “pass” doesn’t break perfectly to Kopitar, or the weak goal 4 doesn’t hit just right, how different would the narrative be today?
An opportunity lost. But the Oilers are the significantly better team, and have been showing it for large stretches. 10 goals plus an EN on what it is supposed to be an elite defense scheme!
I think they button down and dominate game 3. It’s still their series to lose.
Obviously a split is the goal. But a win tomorrow to me is hugely important. Definitely don’t want to go into game 4 down 2-1. Although we done it before I don’t want to roll the dice to often. Let’s get the win tomorrow then think about game 4 with much less pressure .
I should probably just get to reading the comments rather than posting about something that’s probably already been discussed..
But holy moly, that gorgeous pass was 2-3 feet high (as noted on the broadcast) and the tip turned a sure icing into a breakaway.
I guess you could still say Nurse should have been there, but I think he was turning to retrieve the icing.
The probability of that particular pass being tipped perfectly onto Kopitar’s stick was low, low, low in my opinion.
Actually it was tipped to the centre of the ice and Kopitar skated into it.
However, it should be noted that Kopitar had already flown the zone so was expecting to see the puck.
Noted, thank you.
One lineup change I’d like to see is Jack Michaels in for Harnurayan Singh.
When Jack Michaels describes the game he’s good. When he goes on bloviating stats and numbers like they’re the end all be all, it’s a significant distraction. Started last night listening to him and Stauffer with the TV volume off and finally gave up. He’s brutal on radio, tolerable on TV.
When evaluating a goaltending performance it’s important to understand the impact of the Royal Road; an imaginary line drawn vertically up the middle of the ice. A normal shot from any spot on the ice has about a 3% chance of going in however if you can move the puck, either via pass or via skating across the Royal Road that 3% rises to 33%. It’s not just any pass that has this impact; it has to cross the midline. If you pass from the left corner to the left honeypot (slot) the goalie is still covering that half of the net. But once it crosses the RR you can see multiple square feet of net to shoot at. Picture all three of Hymans goals in Game 1. All crossed the midline and were the most Grade A of Grade A shots.
Early in our season when neither Skinner or Campbell could stop a beach ball it was at
Least in part because of our inability to defend the rush; specifically, defending the pass across the RR. People think we were giving up too many rush chances which isn’t exactly true. More accurately, when we did give up rush chances we defended them poorly and we allowed our opposition to go cross ice. We eventually tightened that up by “letting the goalie handle the shooter” and all of a sudden our goaltending looked better.
What worries me about last night is that none of those goals crossed the Royal Road.
On goal 1 Skinner would have been on his right post to defend against Kopitar and then the shot still came from the same side and he missed it. On goal two, Kempe had a great tip but again it never crossed the midline, nor was anyone over there, so Skinner had no reason to leave his left post. Goal three was straight on. Goal 4 was a pass from the right point to the right wall. And the winner was left wall to left slot.
I’m not saying they were all 3 percenters but on average each of those shots wa far less dangerous than any of Hymans goals. Mathematically you’d expect a goals against of <1 on those 5 shots and if you put a human eye on it maybe that’s closer to 2.
As a coach, it is very concerning for me to see him give up 5 in that manner because if they do start to find seams he could be in real trouble.
Nuge – Dry – Foggy
That line is the talk of the town
thoughts?
Staples in Cult of Hockey in the Ed Journal lays blame on RNH for a slow backcheck and not Foegele for the Doughty goal.
I think Drai needs a speedy centre always. I don’t like him at C for a while now
He hasn’t been the same since the high ankle when at centre, at least playing every game as he once did. No mulligans in the playoffs
Foegele is up and down and is really best when set up, not a playmaker. Or a puck handler. Nuge does best with open ice which isn’t 5v5 in playoffs, and while he has great edges he is not a fast player, and he is not big
I don’t like that line much. Drai shouldn’t be getting sunk in stats
They are 8-3 goals only only 76 minutes together over the last three seasons.
If I’m not mistaken, coach is more apt to use McDavid/Drai as a full time 5 on 5 pair on the road than at home, right?
Don’t blame the players for poor coaching.
As per usual, Coach K couldn’t stick to the same script for two straight games. In the first he puts out 2-14 with Drai and it bites him squarely in the ass. Par for the course for our Rookie Coach in 2024 and that’s what you get for listening to Dennis King. Whenever something is going well Coach K can’t help but tear it apart and search for something new. Weird. I’m still trying to understand where Foegele and Drai were going on that swoop, it was bizarre. Both clearly wanted a bank pass, considering how tightly they curled to the boards, but Drai cut Foegele off, and they shot straight ahead, leaving everyone in no man’s land. I blame Drai more than anyone for this loss (more in a second).
He also allowed his team to play with Fear after Holloway tied it. Lordy me that was a sad sack ten minutes. Purely played not to get scored on. Yuck. Now you know why I want the to believe in themselves. They play like THAT when they doubt.
Don’t let Skinner fool you. He knows he had a bad game. Three pretty fugly goals on less than Grade A chances. Talbot made a way harder stop on McLeod’s breakaway, nevermind the Drai save (more on that in a second). Stu has had three rough ones in a row and last night sorta felt like a rock bottom performance. The good part is that once he’s out of these mini-slumps he’ll be very good for several games afterward. Bad part is it may last him another game. Honestly the team shouldn’t play so good in front of him. No work means he’s thinking too much. Give the man some shots!
Speaking of thinking, we all know Draisaitl lost that game for them. He got the pass and couldn’t get his shot up. Made Talbot look good when a proper shooter woulda went top cheddar with the “sure goal,” McDavid gifted him.
How in the world was Danault allowed back in the 3rd after his head snapped back like that on the it? Surprised the spotter didn’t blow the play dead. Speaking of spotters, I cruised his fancies and that line got worked again, especially in the scoring chance category. Someone, is having their way with that line. Actually, all the lines save for Kopitar’s got worked.
Who had PLD and his afterburner jets drawing two penalties last night? Look he was nowhere to be found on any play, but damn the man if he didn’t contribute enough to draw TWO penalties. So impressive for the worst contract in hockey.
Finally, I gotta hand it to the Kings. That final set play, with the 4D chess element of Anderson passing it WAIST high to Byfield was majestic. Hiller with an unreal call there. We should all pass waist high to emulate that level of success.
Tongue in Cheek Time but with a dose of truth everywhere 😉
Back at it tomorrow night.
The Oilers were in the middle of a line change on defense when Bouchard made the weak pass attempt on the first goal against. The new forward line Draisaitl’s had already come on. Bouchard was the only player who had not yet changed. Ekholm had already gone off (for Ceci), and if the zone exit had been successful, Bouchard would have gone off for Nurse.
Knoblauch had NOT changed the predominant groups of five.
The Oilers were in the middle of a line change yes but it was 2-14 and the Drai line coming on, not going off. Nuge is the last change and he comes on for Holloway. Ceci gets stuck out with Bouchard.
https://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=30182#lbshiftchart
For the Kings the Kempe/Kopitar line is pretty fresh so I’m assuming that Coach K is trying to match them.
Same thing happens on the 2nd GA.
If you look closely, it was Nurse Ceci and the Draisati line who was on the ice, and Bouchard was the first change on for Nurse, but the goal happened before Ekholm and McDavid’s line could come on.
I had it backwards in my previous post
No.
Drai was out for a dzone draw with Janmark and Holloway alongside Ceci and Nurse. The Kings had Kopitar out for the O-zone draw. After that draw and a battle, on the breakout Nurse went off for Bouchard at 17:02, Janmark went off for Foegele at 16:58, Holloway went off for Nuge at 16:52 and Kempe scores at 16:42.
Coach K matched up Drai/Nuge against Kopitar/Kempe just like he did in Game 1. But then he tried to run 2-14 with them. Out of the three tries in the first the Kings scored twice.
So much for clean air. Now they play 2 games in LA were, as Bieksa says, the ice is bad, and the puck will be bouncing all over the place. Sounds like a huge advantage for the Kings. However, Oilers will need to win both games and then go home to win in front of their fans in game five. That’s the preferred route as I see it.
I’d be happy if they just cut down on the poor decisions and played a better defensive game starting Friday night. Not going to stress about game 4 until we take care of game 3.
Oilers have shown the ability to win in LA, time to just go out and win.
It’s all about execution now, the practice 82 are done. Get your job done, and bury your chances because more may not come, or start club polishing
Worth noting…the Kings are 9-1 in their last 10 games at home.
not exactly murderers row:
Blackhawks *2
Wild *2
Ducks
Flames
Canucks
Kraken
Lightening
Islnders
Yes, not a high degree of difficulty but they did beat playoff teams.
Earlier in the season they were dreadful at home but turned that around in the second half finishing 22-12-7
Sure, and over the last two post season series, the Oilers have a winning record in LA.
Regular season doesn’t mean a thing now. It’s how you play the game.
LT had my hopes soaring yesterday. nice while it lasted 😉 Go Oilers – this is fun!!!!!
Some great, measured analysis here today.
I agree with much of LT’s assessment of the goals against except for number 4. The reason you don’t see that goal happen very often (distant shot goes in untouched) is because the foundation of goaltending is positioning. They work on it a lot. As a goalie, you are not going to see all the pucks or sometimes won’t see them until the very last moment. So positioning is critical to make sure you get the best chance for the puck to hit you. And for NHL goaltenders, most of the time it does if they are positioned properly.
I think Skinner has full view of the shot, but didn’t pick it up for some reason. But the fact that there might be a screen on goal 4 is irrelevant. Skinner’s positioning was terrible and I believe he knows it. He maybe lost his posts a bit and thought he was further near side than he actually was. He would love to have that one back.
The other goals are goals that are going to go in on good goalies including goal number one. Uncontested point blank in the slot on a goal scorer’s stick? That’s trouble and the team needs to prevent the situation from happening, not blame the goalie for not making a save.
Bouchard was spaced out in the first period. He wasn’t ready to play. Maybe he was dreaming about being the guy who McDavid would hand the cup to if he scores enough in the playoffs. The first goal against was a foolish pass. I don’t see how we blame Foegele there. It was nowhere near where he could retrieve it. Gotta be sure Bouch. Don’t force.
The second goal against is an easy play for most D. Just play the man. Don’t get caught puck watching and flailing your stick at airborne pucks. The players score. The puck doesn’t score on it’s own. Pretty basic D skills would have saved that one. Sure Kempe makes a nice hand-eye tip, but he never should have been in a position wide open in front of the net to do so.
LA is absolutely targeting him. They have all the tape and Bouch is a weakness in his own end. I would like to see him increase the intensity and urgency in his game right from puck drop. I know he’s capable because he does it well when he’s on his game. I hope to see a better game from him in LA. We got 4 goals and that should win a playoff game most of the time. Bouchard cost us that one. I hope it doesn’t cost us the series.
Ideally Bouch would play far fewer minutes to limit our exposure. But Holland thought more forwards was the need at the deadline. Pretty surprising given the weakness on RD.
The OT goal was a beautiful play to Kopitar who was anticipating the chip so he got a jump on Nurse. Pretty slick. Hats off to the Kings for a dazzling game winner that was defended as well as it could be without pre-knowledge of that set play.
They are using the 5v4 play of a back pass to McDavid in full flight to beat the 1-3-1 5v5. Interesting and I think it could be effective if they can get better outlets for McDavid once he is across the blueline. The only reason he tried to go 1v4 is because he has no one to pass to once he’s done the hard part of getting it into the zone.
The slowest guy on the ice getting a breakaway is such an Oiler moment. There was an eternity for everyone to recognize the danger, but it went unnoticed until too late.
A terrible call by the refs with 6 minutes left could have been all she wrote. I can’t believe after not calling all the interference infractions for most of the game they call that and even in it’s most generous viewing interpretation, it’s hard to see how it is a penalty.
We have to get ourselves in a better position to overcome situations like this. Build a lead and don’t sit back. Play hard because you never know when the zebras are going to make a mistake late in the game.
I believe we beat Vegas last year if it wasn’t for the erroneous call on Broberg in game 5. We were winning that game and Eichel holds Broberg’s stick and then uses jerky body movements to make it look like he is getting hooked. The front ref has the play in full view and gives it a no-call. The back ref who is 160 feet away calls a penalty on Broberg who is getting his stick held.
That changed the game and series. We have to make sure that we can weather that kind of referee error late in a game which means playing hard from start to finish regardless of how much we are winning by.
Agreed on most points. I think we’re giving too much credit to Byfield by calling that a set play. It was a lucky bounce and the player has admitted as such. Doesn’t change the end result though.
He was screened by Ekholm on the 4rth goal against. Lundqvist said it right away during the game. He added, “an NHL goaltender doesn’t let that shot go in if they see it.”
I dunno, did you look at the replay? He has full view with no one between him and the shooter. I think he just didn’t know where the puck was or lost it in flight. It happens which is why positioning is important. He stays in his position for when the puck was at the blueline side boards and doesn’t shift left when it gets passed to Fiala. Perhaps he lost the puck during the pass and didn’t know it was on Fiala’s stick which is why he didn’t shift left.
Hank said that Ekholm did a drive by while trying to get position.
In the DNB article today, Skinner said that he didn’t see it at all.
Yup – I remember Henrik saying that too because my first reaction was how in the world did Skinner miss it. He makes that save every time if he see’s it.
Despite all the middling play, the Oilers were one Dylan Holloway possession in the danger zone from being up 2-0.
I was kinda shocked Knoblauch didn’t hammer him with 97 or 29 for the last 10 minutes.
RIP Bob Cole. Titan.
As someone already mentioned, there is the talk inside of Edmonton and from “our” broadcast crew.
And then there is some red pill commentary from opposition broadcasters and third party hockey observers.
Time for the usual round of ‘ of courses’
Yes, small sample. That is the nature of playoffs
In 2 playoff games to start our Cup Run:
Drai:
CF% 37.8
SF% 40.0
GF 2 / GA 4
RNH:
CF% 36
SF% 38
GF 1 / GA 4
For now, I will leave Warren out because Warren was not decimated by Las Vegas during our last playoff series.
Both games on *home ice*
2 of our top 6 forwards are getting clubbed like baby seals – *again*.
De je Vu – unfortunately no scapegoat in Yamamoto this year.
( Although, Warren F should probably duck now)
I would almost guarantee we will not see RNH and Drai together on the road.
If we get better goaltending will Ryan get to touch the puck at even strength?
Listen, Kings are a good team.
But Koppy is 36 and one of his wingers is somebody called a ” Laferriere”
Kopitar is:
CF% 60
SF% 62
GF 4 / GA 2
Draisaitl running a 10 gf 20 ga at 5 v 5 since 2021/2022 away from McDavid.
During that same time frame, 1gf 9ga when playing with RNH without McDavid.
Last year playoffs only, Leon was actually better away from McDavid than McDavid was with Draisaitl. Draisaitl sawed off at 7gf,7ga and McDavid 3gf, 5ga.
So, despite a decent track record of regular season success, things have not rhymed for Draisaitl/RNH in the playoffs.
Not sure what the solution is, but at least long term, it can’t be loading up.
In the middle of our first playoff run ( with the Gods) in 2017- Todd Maclellan abandoned having RNH in the top 6.
2017 Playoffs:
RNH
GF 2 / GA 7
RNH recorded – 0 goals- that playoff run
0 goals. Ryan was 24 years old for this run…and arguably in his prime.
The Oilers started slow, and played the first period game that saw them lose to Vegas. The second period was at standard. Then the third was a big let down. This team had a chance to show they’ve evolved and largely failed.
It wasn’t “mistakes”, it was taking their foot off the gas and thus creating no pressure. Just brutal.
Hyman also cannot miss that chance on the net front scramble in the first. You have to get that in the net. Ceci only got bailed out because of Holloway.
Nurse cannot be trusted as last man back with a big timer out there. This is a problem.
“Another big save by Joseph, he’s in that zone again by the looks of it. Who’s gonna beat Joseph or who’ll get one for Edmonton? They’re gonna try here, rushing to centre and down the wing it is Marchant…scores Marchant scores! and the Edmonton Oilers are gonna move on, the Dallas Stars have been eliminated.”
Rest in Peace to the best who’s ever done it. Bob Cole 1933-2024
What a legend my favourite moment of his is the Jan 11th 1976 call of “They’re going home”
Bob Cole and Harry Neale. Miss those games.
The lack of classic voices calling 97 and 29’s exploits is tragic to me.
Instead we’ve got a main radio voice who can’t pronounce the word diesel correctly…much less players names. And if you listened to the highlights of the first game…every goal call was late. All of em. You’ve got one job man…
I sure hope someone who becomes iconic comes along.
Watching Ryan McLeod not score on the breakaway made me think he is the reincarnation of Todd Marchant
To be Todd Marchant he’ll have to miss on 12 consecutive breakaways (in a week?), then score on one of the most epic and important breakaways in Oilers franchise history.
I think if you took a poll you might find that to be the greatest goal in Oilers history.
I was living in NY back then. Did not have a TV and rode my bicycle about 12km to my friend’s house, up a huge hill, to watch that series. He had given up on the Oilers by then and it was just me alone, sitting in front of his TV, freaking out.
But there was also the Mark Lamb goal. And so many Glen Anderson goals. The Messier “take it wide” classic. I think I got the most satisfaction out of the 12-passes between Gretzky and Kurri in 5 seconds goals, though.
So many to list, so many from championship teams scored by hall of famers. I think that’s what made 1997 so special: Edmonton could have success on the back of hard work and gumption. Especially coming off the Cujo save. What a sequence.
I’d suggest that that would be relative to age my friend. For us oldies (well for me) as exciting as that was, I can instantly think of 2 OT winners that were more important, and resonate more to me. (99 & 85 immediately spring to mind.)
That’s why I said “if you took a poll” and I got all reds on that one.
That would be a wonderful result for the Oilers – if McLeod had a Marchant like career.
Is anyone else having trouble getting the most current article on this website? The website isn’t refreshing for me. I have to pull the link from X.
lowetide.ca ? No I’m not having any problem.
It’s been suggested you log in to avoid the caching problem.
I did. Had to login.
I’m having the problem too. I’ve been googling just “lowetide” and then clicking “oiler talk on the ol al gore” and then it brings me to the current blogs. Otherwise my normal route takes me to game one with only 7 comments and the next blog is about two weeks older than that one.
I recommend “The Memory Illusion” by Dr. Julia Shaw on this topic. She has done a lot of work with implanting false memories. We more predict the past based on our incomplete memories.
I’m likely a number of years younger than the average user here, but when I was in junior high school well over a decade ago, we took a field trip to the Telus World of Science, where our class was shown a video of a crime being committed, with no prior context given before of what we were going to watch or why. Afterward, we were each given a quiz on some of the finer details about what we just watched like “What colour bike did they ride off on?”. Nobody received a passing grade.
Point was to show how unreliable eye witness accounts can be. And they ensured to note that this was without the adrenaline-fueled tunnel vision that often occurs in an actual scenario witnessing a crime.
I’ll never forget Bob Cole’s call on the Pisani shorthanded OT winner G5 in Raleigh. RIP to a legend.
A large amount of the Kings goals were scored with the McDavid – Bouchard combo out on the ice. I imagine the Oilers are keenly aware of that. And that can’t be Skinner’s fault.
2
The Oilers are 3-2 goals at 5 on 5 when McDavid and Bouch are on the ice together. They were 63-36 on the season.
Bob Cole has passed at 90.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/bob-cole-obituary-1.7184556
I am 100% convinced the OT play was a set play.
I also wonder about the frequency of goals off the defencemen’s skates. Are they “fluky” goals or is this something that LA has noticed about our d corpse cutting in front of Skinner?
Stuart Skinner Career Playoff Stats:
GP 14
Wins 6
GAA 3.81
SV% .879
Small sample size but still concerning. He only needs to be average.
Hope him and the boys bounce back in
Game 3.
We can grind out a series win over L.A with a below average Skinner. The next 3 rounds I don’t think it’s possible
Plus, most of LA goals scored off the rush. One point shot screened.
Oilers D are defending corners well, stopping the cycle, getting puck up.
But lordy giving up rush chances and rush goals. Come on guys, this is preventable.
Rushes are mostly on the forwards, especially F3 (usually the C) who is supposed to be high in the O zone or back in the N zone to stop that. The Oilers lose structure a lot, often 3 guys down low so no middle ice coverage from a forward. This was the first change KK made
i think it was Gregor who quoted a goalie scout awhile ago on Twitter .He had remarked that Skinner was solid in his own end, but quite a bit below average on rush chances.
Knoblauch changed the neutral zone structure to fix this when he was hired.
That would have been Kevin Woodley.
We spoke about this all season. This Kings (and others) game plan is Kryptonite for the Oilers.
Take away Connor and Leon through every smothering means possible. Collapse on the house. Engage and contest every inch in front of the net. Force shots from the pint, clear netfront. Get in shooting lanes. Wait, wait, wait for chances as they will come.
Oilers are an offensive team, they are not as good defensively. It’s a fact.
They figured out how to beat this game plan this season. Patience. They proved it. Patience, no mistakes.
As the Kings skate around interfering with McDavid, it is easier to nullify him than worry about scoring. And all McDavid is thinking about is breaking free, not defensive hockey. Same with Draisaitl and Bouchard. Try to do to much and you open yourself up to those defensive miscues.
Holloway scores two goal because he doesn’t get it. He doesn’t get the fancy back door play. He shoots the puck. He’s in the slot, he shoots. Keep it simple.
Lots of details to go over this morning, but bottom line, Oilers know how to execute the game needed to beat the Kings. Their biggest challenge is not to do typical Oily things.
Go up 4-0 and then give 2 almost 3 goals back. Give up 3 goals in the first because your intensity level doesn’t match your opponent.
I think overtime and the game was lost on a lucky bounce. This happens too frequently and the only answer is put yourselves in a better position.
Holloway also raised the puck. Amazingly, you score more that way, where the goalie isn’t
I think many have believed for some time that Edmonton’s main opponent is Edmonton. I agree but I also have some sympathy for their alter ego. They are a high wire act. That’s how they’re built. They are however capable of clamping down and many are frustrated because they sometimes don’t. I wonder if it maybe just ain’t going to work that way. You need to take the BMW out on the highway once in a while or the engine will breakdown driving to the post office every Sunday.
Playoff hockey needs the discipline to just stay on arterials and get the chores done. I’m not sure this team will consistently do that. A frustrating tax on watching the most exciting team of the era. But it doesn’t mean they won’t win.
What do we know, and have seen, from recent history at multiple temporal scales?: Bounce-back. This season as a whole or games within the season. I won’t panic until I see that part of their game gone. Haven’t seen it yet, and we saw it last night. How hard is it to come back from 2 down to LA? Extremely! They made up for it but overtime is overtime. Alas.
They will get down by a couple goals or a game in a series. I like the coach’s ability to tinker and the leaderships resolve in these moments.
Overall, I think the Oilers outplayed the Kings last night. Kings got some bounces and were able to capitalize on a few of them while the Oilers not so much. That happens. Its 1 game. Only teams I expect will sweep their opponents in the 1st round are the Rangers and Canes.
I think it’s fair to say that was LA at its best and Edmonton not. This should shake out for us over 7 games.
I’m not panicking at all. I don’t think the plan was ever to go 16-0.
I’m a bit concerned about the Kings having the last change now.
Not sure I agree but don’t fully disagree.
Maybe he wasn’t the reason they lost the game but was the difference in tending not the reason they lost? Talbot had iffy goals in as well (Kulak, Holloway’s first) but he came up with a couple massive saves in the 2nd period that, in my opinion, were really the difference.
No, sloppy Oilers forwards and poor passing from the D is why the Oilers lost. Any goalie can look bad if you put them in enough bad situations.
Sure, I guess, but Talbot played behind a team that was sloppy and make bad passes and turnovers and came up with a couple of big saves that Skinner just never did.
I thought they lost because the fans were over-confidant……?
Skinner needed to make a big save and he really didn’t. Didn’t have his usual presence in the by eye either.
I understand the likes of Godot blaming Bouch as he didn’t “tie up his man” but he did break up the play by getting stick on puck and luck + great skill by Kempe resulted in a goal. Is Bouch supposed to interfere with Kempe there? Wouldn’t that have been 2 minutes?
The 100% way to break up the play is to play the man, not the puck. Luck and skill are then eliminated from the picture.
and minor penalties for interference are added to the equation.
I thought that goal was a total fluke. If Bouchard doesn’t touch the puck Kempe doesn’t either. Bouchard slowed it down to a flutter. Reaction move by Bouchard. Understandable. Unlucky.
Broken down to this one play, sure, a bit unlucky. Bouchard however is know to just take the stick not the man, it’s a weakness that still exists because of his offensive contributions.
Bouchard also bobbled to puck on the blue line for a chance against. Given his skills, that will happen but again, he has to be playing mistake free. More concerning is when the play went back into Oilers own end the same player skated into and out of the corner with the puck. Bouchard followed and missed the hit, the man, the puck. To me that was a sign Bouch was not ready for the game.
and this is fair.
I haven’t known Bouchard to take the stick very often when defending. Most of the time he is standing beside his man doing nothing but watching.
The whole “take the man narrative” is a little off base. It’s good advice when defending a 1 on 1 rush, however, when marking a man in front of the net, you are far better off being able to control his stick. I see lots of young defenseman pushing and crosschecking players in the slot, and yet the players hands and stick are still free to tip or direct the puck to the net. Tying up the stick is still the most effective way to limit chances
I’m not expecting Bouchard to take the man in that situation, but I would like to see him tie up the stick as the pass is coming through. Instead he goes for the intercept, and let’s face it, he got a little unlucky.
Watch other NHL teams, that’s how you control the front of your net.
Perry, Kane, Foegele did not get an inch of space net front.
Agreed on this one but would note a few things:
1) You’d like Skinner to stop that one but no more than Kings fans would like Talbot to stop Kulak’s shot or Holloway’s first goal. Talbot had a couple go in that, like Skinner, could have been saved, the difference was the two 5-alarm saves Talbot made.
2) I put as much blame on the forwards as I do on Bouch for that one.
Oilers and Kings have 2 of the 3 weakest goalies in the playoffs (Samsonov), so it boils down to whoever figures it out between Skinner and Talbot.
It’s hard to believe in this team getting a Cup sometimes. They just can’t make it easy on themselves.
Apart from a healthy Demko, Saros, and Hellebuyck (although he is off to a rough start because the Jets are playing pathetically in front of him), everyone else in the West has good but not great goaltending.
Skinner, Thompson, Hill, Oettinger, Georgiev are all roughly the same.
I agree with the other poster on level of concern: it’s game 2, of course we’d like to see them up 2-0 but this wasn’t a blowout. The Kings played their ass off and were the better team 2/3 periods, yet the Oil still pushed them to OT. This was not a decisive loss, it was down to a coin flip–if Hyman scores in front of the net early there in OT, we’re all singing a much different tune today.
So while games are based on inches, the playoffs are based on miles, and how well you perform as the odometers rolls. I would likely be more worried today as a Kings fan than an Oilers fan, and tomorrow will be the dipstick that tells if we’re burning oil or not… pun intended
Or if Ceci didn’t miss a net so open it would make Patrik Stefan blush.
The Oilers blew the game on their own defensive mistakes and lack of consistent effort again.
The Oilers lost the game. The Kings did not win it. Losing because of defensive mistakes and lack of consistent effort is a repeatable way to lose games in the playoffs.
The oilers are as good as any of the other teams in the playoffs. They have quality players up and down their lineup. Depth we haven’t seen the likes of in years. And a goalie who is good enough to win with. What they severely lack is consistent attention to detail. I get it. Sh!t happens. We’re all human. But in the playoffs, lack of detail is much more costly. It’s just really frustrating when you see the same handful of players being exposed.
Good points, which is why some were wanting the GM to upgrade on those players or use youth. Unfortunately players with processing issues, or skills issues like puck handling passing and skating, can play well for stretches, but tend to cost when the chips are down and the pressure is up. And that will not change in the bigger picture
Goaltending was the difference last night, L.A got the big save when it mattered.
Talbot made 2-3 unbelievable saves. I don’t think I said, that was a “huge save” once for Skinner.
Talbot did not face open shots and deflections from the middle low slot, nor breakaways.
The quality of the chances was not remotely the same.
Ryan McLeod went in all alone after a Kempe turnover on the PK.
Talbot made the save.
It would be interesting to see how often Skinner gets beat glove side percentage wise compared to his colleagues. Does Skinner stop the Bouchard blast labelled for the top corner or does it hit top shelf where Grandma keeps the cookies without Skinner even moving his arm.
I think at times he carries his glove too low, down by his pad. Corner wide open
This not at all true.
Per NST, Oilers SCF% 59% and Oilers HDCF%68, in all game states. 58% and 63% at evens.
All scoring chances are equal. Some scoring chances are more equal than others.
Talbot made the 2 biggest saves of the night – the highest danger chances of the night. Heck in might even be the 4-5 toughest saves of the night.
Facts are facts until they don’t support my guy or my narrative m
DNB has an article up at The Athletic with some quotes from Skinner. You should give it a read.
Skinner is not going to blame the team in front of him.
HD chances can be misleading as a stat line. They are counted by where they come from, it’s the only way publicly available, but that doesn’t mean the quality is the same. Add to that not all players are equal in their ability to finish
No one is staying that the stat lines are the end-all-be-all, but they are an important tool, are they not? I guess we need a high-high danger scoring chance stat to be valuable.
Actually, the Cult of Hockey tracks exactly that (but just for Oilers games).
And? What was their count for game 2
I can’t recall exactly, it was before 5 this morning when I listed – I believe the 5-alarm chance were slightly in favor of the Oilers.
Yes they are, but they should be taken with context, like if we watch a game and they get 50 shots but they are largely shot low and into the goalie, or banging away at pucks in the goalie’s pad, scrambles and the like. They are chances but not like a well set up shot or seam plays
The teams have the good data which has pre shot puck movement etc
He did face at least one breakaway that I remember and he certainly faced more dangerous chances than the type you describe including and I would suggest Leon Draisaitl agrees
~Oh, You’re absolutely right, the Oilers totally had the offensive zone time, more quality shots on net and around 5 HDSC and a breakaway from McLeod…~
what game were you watching?
Why is Ceci pinching at centre ice without cover in overtime? McLeod was skating backwards looking up the ice, so Ceci could see that he had no cover.
Nurse was late on Kopitar, because Ceci pinched himself out of position without a forward covering for him.
It looked like a set play (sucker play for the right D) for a line change where the forward, in this case, Kopitar, sneaks off the bench behind the forwards and skates to the spot vacated by a pinching D.
But if the D does not pinch at centre ice without forward cover, there is no play.
It’s the unthinking plays that sink them. Mistakes happen, unfortunately to me there are several guys quite prone to it often at very inopportune times. To me the ideal should be that only exceptional plays beat you, give up nothing easy
No, I think Ceci was correct picking up the winger there. That is a set play, the D always contest that pass up to the red line. So long as they get the man and he did.
9/10 times that is a tip and dump. Nurse turns the wrong way expecting to chase.
Kopitar gets some speed going expecting to forecheck.
Lucky bounce, lucky opportunity
Did Skinner move expecting the dump? I don’t think so. But he also saves 9/10 shots from that shooting area when he can get way out of his net.
When a d-man steps up, he needs to make sure he gets either the man or the puck. Ceci 100% took his man out of the play and had all the requisite support to allow the puck in behind him.
Nurse was on the defensive side of Kopitar and he had two other forwardds on the defensive side of any other King.
There was no lack of support and Ceci’s pinch had nothing to do with Nurse’s positioning vis-a-vis Kopitar – there was no other King in sight.
But he didn’t because Kopitar skated into the empty ocean behind him.
As I said before playoffs started.
you would be a fool to not play Holloway.
Full credit to the Kings for taking it to the Oil who were already looking to the second round. Kings loaded up their top line and we didn’t have an answer
Old man Doughty plays 25 minutes a night, and decides to bag skate himself up the ice in the first period, on a play that is likely to be nothing, but he turns it into something merely because of effort.
Somebody share this video with Warren Foegele.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsZCTzYNBQE
Here is the clip of the goal and a 34 year old defenseman.
Are you sure it is Foegele?
Or a forward that became very infamous in the Western Conference playoffs last year and is off to a similar start this year. Against a team – few expect to see in the Cup finals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmnMkx1pMAA
Roll back a couple of more seconds, when Doughty is at the faceoff circle with Foegele right beside him. Doughty takes off up the ice. Foegele lollygags. That is Foegele’s man. It is Foegele’s job to account for Doughty.
Nugent-Hopkins was late to notice Doughty racing up ice in his blind spot, but Foegele clearly didn’t shout out to Nugent-Hopkins either that Doughty was coming.
Doughty made a kamikaze sprint up the ice on a nothing play because he knows the Oilers forwards often lollygag on the backtrack, and he caught Foegele with his pants down.
I don’t mind McD trying to take on 4 Kings. He knows it is low percentage but he is testing the limits of the Kings system and forcing them to react. It creates some confusion that he can take advantage of next time – because the Kings know he is capable of getting through occasionally.
I believe this play is part of a larger team strategy i.e. coach is calling it.
The rest of the team is doing a decent job of getting through the mushy middle with chips and chases.
Overall, it looked like the Drais line was having the most difficulty. But they are also seeing a lot of Kopitar and Kempe.
At some point in the near future, Evan Bouchard is either going to cost us the Stanley Cup, or be directly responsible for winning the Stanley Cup.
Destiny.
We can blame luck. Poor defensive plays and reads and whatever else we want to blame. But if your goalie is giving up 4.5 goals a game you won’t win in the playoffs. It happened last year and is happening now. It may not be Skinners fault but its definitely his problem.
No one should be panicking this morning. Were we all expecting a sweep? Way too much series to go. Worry meters should be at 3/10.
It’s not about expecting a sweep, it’s about how they played.
Moneypuck had us winning 65% of the time in their simulation engine. We won the xG battle. Every single Cup champion is going to have games like this.
That’s fine, but we are still going to discuss the game and the deficiencies in it. Or should we just wrap up all blogs, call+in shows etc on the basis that they won’t win every game.
Discussing things isn’t the same as panicking so I really don’t understand your point.
I’m going a little higher.
Worry meter should be 3/5.
I’m not blaming Skinner, but he was not “on” last night.
And how the hell do you post an image on here?
Great write up LT. After 2 games I think this playoffs is going to roll like the previous, it will be a war of attrition between the Oilers’ talent, Connor, Stu, and the inability of some of the players to keep their heads in the game, and make sure they execute the basics to a high level, fancy or not. As you said, puck management
KK has his work cut out for him. We will see if he has a higher ability than the previous coaches with people skills, and leading them to do it right. It is going to be a wild ride