This 2022 photo of Ziggy perfectly frames the mood of Oilers Nation today. The little doggo was displeased with her employee (me) and found the situation entirely vexing. What did I do that was so bad? I closed the window, because she was barking at passersby and scaring them. Ziggy is 15 pounds of heaven and hell in the NHL, all day, every day.
The Oilers lost a game they never really joined last night. The Vancouver Canucks came out like a house on fire, hitting everything in sight. The Oilers looked sleepy by comparison, and along with all of the other roster issues, could not get on top of the game.
The result? Peace Frog. That’s the title of The Doors song I referenced in today’s title. There is blood in the streets, people want answers. People have legit questions, too. Should Stuart Skinner see the net in Game 4? What are the Oilers going to do about the Nurse-Ceci pairing? What about all of the other issues in the defensive zone? Let’s take these questions one at a time.
Stuart Skinner doesn’t have many friends writing words and rhyme this morning, but I’ll stand with him. All the smart people tell me that sample size is important, and here we are eight games into another playoff spring and Skinner is the worst goaltender ever. You either believe the numbers or you don’t. I believe the large pile of stats (regular season) and don’t believe the smaller sample. You may disagree.
I believe single events can have enormous importance and still be single events. I also believe the Oilers sent a perfectly good goaltender away (Devan Dubnyk) over something like this run and it may well happen again. As a fun exercise, do you mind telling me which of the goals Skinner should have stopped? I have my list, would like yours.
What I would suggest is this: Play better in front of him. When Skinner is playing in front of a structured defense, then things fall into place. Kris Knoblauch may sit Skinner for Game 4, Edmonton needs saves and Skinner isn’t making enough of them at this time. For me, I’d run him back, and I’d make damn good and sure that Warren Foegele doesn’t make that dangerous pass. Speaking of, can we count the number of poor passes in the zone and add that to Skinner’s resume? Or the failure to recognize danger? It isn’t all on Skinner and it isn’t all on Nurse-Ceci either.
I think it’s time for the coaching staff to insert Troy Stecher on the Nurse pairing. I would make that change before changing out the goaltenders. I would also bring Sam Carrick back over Derek Ryan. The speed of this series is too much, even for an extremely smart player like Ryan. The Oilers need Adam Henrique in the worst way.
The coaching staff needs to fade the players who can’t play sound hockey without the puck. I’m not naming names, because everyone makes mistakes and a single event isn’t enough to sit. However, accountability is important and ice time is often the wakeup call. Dylan Holloway has played better than Warren Foegele in this series.
I don’t believe this series has reached anything close to critical, and do believe the Oilers as a group will show up determined in Game 4. Many media are saying that Carson Soucy will be suspended before the next game, I don’t think it will happen but maybe the NHL has changed its ways.
For me, the game was lost due to a complete lack of readiness for the onslaught, and failure to protect the puck, sending it to good areas. Stuart Skinner can win games when the Oilers have calm feet in their own zone. He won’t save you when chaos rules the day. I choose to believe that the Oilers will overcome this problem by the next game.
If the Oilers lose this series, it will be a loud summer. I believe this to be true. Whenever I mention Leon Draisaitl’s upcoming contract, or the Oilers reaction to Evan Bouchard’s next contract AAV, or the fact this organization has little in the pipeline, I’m net with plenty of resistance because most of you don’t want to talk about it. These are things that matter. I’ll be at the other end to remind you again. I still believe the Oilers win this series.
A busy show and you take center stage today, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. I feel the heat of a fan base that has had enough, with Stuart Skinner, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, Ryan McLeod and others. So, bring it today and we’ll read your texts for the full two hours. We’ll also have Rachel Doerrie at 12:40 to talk Kris Knoblauch Game 4 strategy and Jason Gregor along at 1:20 to give us the latest. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
Bouchard definitely outplayed propane rhapsody out there tonight.
I can feel it: the shit tide is going back out.
McDavid has moments. Coming up: Eat the ghost of Carson Soucy for breakfast moment.
Makar and Mackinnon each a -6 with 3 pts in the first 4 games of this series. Woof.
If that was McDavid and Draisaitl, they would be mocked and ridiculed. Heck, Oilers fans on this blog are calling Draisaitl ineffective on account of his injury when he has 8 points in the first 3 games and leading the playoff scoring race
One challenge facing Skinner in this series is that the Canucks have a naturally high PDO. As an average shooting and saving team it stands to reason that Edmonton’s SH% and SV% would both naturally decline against Vancouver. That’s certainly what happened in the regular season, and is happening again, although we can argue that there have been mistakes that have further aggravated SV%.
The Oilers had a 5v5 SV% of 91.42 during the regular season. If they performed as an average team against Vancouver, they should have a SV% of 89.39. Currently Edmonton’s 5v5 SV% in round 2 is 85.42.
Score effects change the picture to some degree, but not tonnes when looking at “within 1” scores. When Edmonton is leading, it has a strong PDO as it had in the regular season.
In some respects it doesn’t matter much which goalie is inserted, although Pickard’s within season results are better in terms of 5v5 SV% (.925 vs .914) and GSAx (5.4 vs 1.8). It should be expected that Pickard’s numbers are better, in that he faced weaker teams during his deployment as a backup.
I wanted to know if on average the playoffs favour shooters or savers, in other words if there’s a natural increase or decrease in SV% during the playoffs. I looked at the last three seasons: 5v5 SV% increases marginally.
21-22 Reg 91.58%
21-22 Play 92.02%
Play delta 0.43%
22-23 Reg 91.43%
22-23 Play 91.77%
Play delta 0.34%
23-24 Reg 91.35%
23-24 Play 91.83%
Play delta 0.48%
5v5 SA/GP have also increased marginally the last two playoffs over the regular season (0.73 and 0.56), but not yet this playoffs (-1.27).
There are all sorts of factors at play. But generally we can assume that the marginal increases in SV% are due to a style of play that is physically more prohibitive, and a quality of goaltending that is marginally more consistent, although smaller samples in the playoffs mean that there will be more inter-team variance in the data.
All of this to say that generally in the playoffs average teams should be experiencing a marginal increase in SV% over the regular season.
Also, it makes sense that Edmonton is experiencing a lower SV% against Vancouver in this round over its 82 game SV% (but granted, not this low).
Although it stands to reason that over a larger number of playoff games that Skinner’s SV% would experience some positive regression, if the sample size is increased against Vancouver his SV% should be lower than his past regular season average by a few percent, given Vancouver’s higher PDO. However, given that Edmonton should be playing a prohibitive style in front of him, we could argue a small increase, maybe 0.5 percent, over that two percent negative regression. We might expect a SV% around 90.00, which is lower than the current league average of 91.83.
Wouldn’t the quality of goaltending also play a factor in the playoff save percentages being higher since playoff teams generally have better goalies?
Yes, that’s what I mean by “and a quality of goaltending that is marginally more consistent.”
Teams also should have better shooters.
Another statistical perspective to consider is that of gambler’s fallacy. Let’s pretend that Skinners low (by about 4.5 percent based on the above target of 90.00) SV% is due to chance. Although more games played eventually means that there should be positive regression, there’s no statistical basis to assume that things might right their course in the next game. Skinner’s luck could get better tomorrow, or it might get worse. There’s no way to know.
The down-votes are hilarious. Losers.
LT
Thank you for continuing to be the game keeper in this jungle that you created
The proliferation of new names with informed or out there opinions is impressive
I respect the effort as we all do
God Speed Sir
The Avs decided to show up
If it only costs you $5000 for a chance to break the ribs of your opponents MVP in a playoff series you do that every time
He said in disgust
Which is the problem
But to the ridiculous masses, that’s playoff hockey.
Not drafting Johnston was a very very big error in judgement
Not picking up first round picks out of favour also a big mistake, after due diligence
Johnston scores his second of the game and 7th of the post season.
Might be a Conn Smythe candidate if the Stars get that far.
And he’s still only 20.
Johnston has both goals for Dallas tonight.
I also wish the Oilers listened to Coffey who was reportedly telling the Oilers to draft him. (I tried to draft him in my hockey pool rookie draft but he went one pick before me. Been trying to trade for him ever since).
The kid is a stud already.
The worst thing is reportedly they didn’t have an OHL scout and Coffey was the only voice. Sad emoji
@BruceLeVinePuck
In NHL History, only Jaromir Jagr (14), Jordan Staal (13), Jeremy Roenick and Brent Sutter (12) have scored more Stanley Cup playoffs goals before their 21st birthday than Wyatt Johnston.
Johnston passes up an empty net goal and feeds Sam Steel for the 5-1 win.
Johnston ends up with 11 playoff goals before his 21st birthday which is tomorrow.
At least use a wet cloth to clean yourself off when you are done.
If we go back far enough, we also could have Brock Boeser and Kyle Connor right now, too. Maybe even Alex DeBrincat.
The OBC speaks:
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/its-time-to-get-your-balls-on-the-crest-of-your-jerseys-edmonton-oilers-old-boy-club-deliver-a-message
This has happened for a long time in Edmonton,
don’t play the depth then blame them for not scoring.
This coach has had to resort to not playing the depth because they haven’t been scoring.
How many points do Mcleod and Perry have this post season?
Mcleod has anywhere between 12-17 mins of ice time with absolutely nothing to show for it.
How do you keep playing that when you need goals?
How many points would McDavid have if he played 6:18
McDavid would never play 6:18 because he produces.
Mcleod could play 40min a night and he ain’t producing nothing but lap times.
McLeod never has any idea who he is playing with. He is tasked with new leftovers every game, sometimes every period.
Mcdavid preseason, regular season, and post season has 13 combined games of 0-0-0
Mcleod is at 13 straight games of 0-0-0 with 69 total games of 0-0-0.
LOL
McLeod is at 12:09 per game at evens and Foegele around 11:25.
All his game logs have him playing between 12 and near 17mins a night.. And what does he have to show for it..
0-0-0.
Shorthanded goals are also a thing, not that the lap merchant would know anything about that.
He hasn’t scored in the playoffs since 2021-2022.
Playing him 18 a night isn’t going to change any of that.
21 straight playoff games without a goal for Mcleod, last goal came game 3 vs the Avs.
One of the strengths of the Oilers PP is the players movement and fluidity of positions. On that last PP they were oddly stationary. Was that because they were gassed from playing so much?
Also, will that grande ice time affect them on Wednesday?
Janmark provided some stellar forechecking and back tracking last night.
For those who were asking earlier, tomorrow night’s game will be on CBC.
After the latest Cole own goal, did y’all see Tocchet turn away in disgust from D coach Foote as Foote approached Tocchet and appeared to try to explain something to him? Tocchet said something and turned away from him like he didn’t want to hear any of Foote’s excuses.
Someone with the ability should post that on X. Stir the dissension in the ranks pot.
“I would also bring Sam Carrick back over Derek Ryan. The speed of this series is too much, even for an extremely smart player like Ryan.”
Carrick is slower than Ryan
Yes, and if the game is too fast for both of them, then at least Carrick brings some physicality.
Ryan played great in game 3 imo
Any suggestion of sitting Ryan after game 3 is bizarro world.
My dilemma is that I enjoy the NHL’s regular season product, alot.
But their playoff product sucks rocks.
I think I could call games better using a Magic 8 Ball.
@frank_seravalli
Avs forward Val Nichushkin has been suspended without pay for a minimum 6 months for violating terms of NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.
Sources say Nichushkin recently failed a drug test. He missed playoff games last year after a 911 call in Seattle in which an intoxicated woman was found in his room.
Huge loss.
The guy could be a force if he got his act together
Yeah…that’s a huge blow for the Avalanche.
Playoff Goals
Hyman 9
Nichushkin 9
Draisaitl 7
Boeser 7
Verhaeghe 7
His absence likely cost them the series against Seattle a year ago.
Pretty sure the Stars are not sorry about all this.
Addiction is a hell of a disease – non-curable and persistant!
That was one of the strangest sports stories of all time and was very strangely shushed up. Now it seems like the team did some covering up for him
You would think his team mates must have had an inkling.
No way anyone in the org couldn’t tell. It may have been them that caused this, which in the end is better for him
It was him or Nurse with the #7OV in the 2013 draft. Despite Nurse’s recent struggles, and despite Nichushkin leading the league in playoff goals (!), it looks like we made the right call.
Devon Toews also out tonight with an illness.
Caleb Jones draws in.
Frank Seravalli with an article about Skinner being one of the worst playoff goalies of the cap era. I like the player but his playoff resume is just dismal. I don’t know how you can trust him at this point.
Aren’t we talking about a second year tender?
As opposed to Vancouvers first year rookie? Irrelevant…we all create our own history, Skinners playoff history is not good, and if we’re being honest, his regular season history is average.
Trust me, I’ve tried to be a Skinner supporter… but sometimes a spade is a spade, hopefully I’m wrong, but i personally have lost confidence in him.
“Of all 69 goalies since 2005 with at least 15 playoff appearances, Skinner ranks dead last in save percentage with an .881 mark in 20 games. He’s worse than Kari Lehtonen’s .887 (19 games) and Nikolai Khabibulin’s .898 (15 games) – and that’s not a small sample size.”
Using those same filters here:
# 8 Dwayne Roloson 35 GP .926
#10 Mike Smith 45 GP .924
#20 Jack Campbell 18 GP .920
#38 Cam Talbot 36 GP .915
#61 Devan Dubnyk 26 GP .904
#69 Stuart Skinner 20 GP .881
Skinner’s rank shifts depending on the GP filter, but is always very much at the bottom.
Perfect time to put some units on Oilers to win the series.
The Canucks have definitely broken Skinner. Confidence gone, tentative and backed in plus oft times lost in his crease. His playoff response is continuing a downward spiral from last years playoffs, this in spite of Pickard playing more games to finish this years regular season. Play Cal!
Seravelli on the DFO podcast mentioned that the Myers Soucy pairing has had the most ice time against 97. Also have heard that Soucy has the longest stick on the Canucks. Evidence in that one great Backcheck on 97 in game 2. This is an opportunity the Oilers need to take advantage of.
One would think Zadorov at 6’6″ also has a pretty long reach.
Yes being 6’6″ generally means having a long reach. I just thought it was interesting that Soucy has teh longest stick on the Canucks even though he is an inch shorted than Zadorov and 3 inches shorter than Myers.
Is it time to ask what Corey Perry has been contributing? Im not seeing much. Can he be used differently? Im curious as to other opinions.
He needs to play with speed and someone who can play at his level. He’s not going to do much solo except cycle
When he’s with Holloway and Mcleod they get the puck up but the two kids aren’t exactly driving the net etc
Kane with McL and Perry might work again bcs Kane knows what to do. Although he might be needed on Connor’s line it’s looking like
Lots of talk again about McDavid Draisaitl lines. To me, it is all irrelevant until you back off the smothering interference and cross checks. The 5×5 is still dismal as neutralizing the pair is still the plan and allowed under playoff hockey.
The rest of the team has to engage Boeser and Miller. Nuetralize them with similar tactics. If Nurse steps up on Zadorov, give him something to think about. Don’t fight, just antagonize.
Forwards will have to sacrifice netfront. Kane took one big crosscheck, went down on the second and got the call. But you have to be there. Canucks score a lot on deflected point shots, this can also be achieve by Oilers.
These Oilers have shown grit before but seem to be holding back.. Vancouver is just not that big nor scary that the Oilers cant play them hard. With a little chaos it should free up Connor and Leon.
Something has to change here. The present game plan produced 45 shots and a loss. Unlucky sure, but what else is going on?
Too many players are being pushed out of the heart of the game. Ideally they get a lead
and if they are going to shorten the 5v5 bench play the guys who have game and jump
Janmark isn’t ideal but is reliable and gets after it with speed and size, lowest TOI last game while others weren’t doing anything. Holloway. There are 3 forwards without a playoff point and two have worse +/- than the ones with points. Play the guys feeling it
Canucks started game very rugged. Ekholm flattened twice in first minute. I was very disappointed at lack of physical response from the Oilers. It took them the whole first period to recover but were down two goals by then. Tochett appears to be pulling the right strings.
I think this game was lost because 4-5 players are playing way too many minutes (looked tired) & the rest of the team is not supporting those players.
I think Skinner is a fine regular season goalie, the playoffs are just a different animal.
Skinner doesn’t look comfortable & I might be alone in this, I find my stomach turns every time a player gets a good shot off.
I think the Oilers come back, but go down 4 games to 2.
My biggest question is, why wasn’t Kane placed on LTIR at the end of February for a simple sports hernia surgery & why didn’t Holland use that LTIR money for a top 6 winger or RHD is beyond me, it’s really piss poor management.
I think the Oilers come back and win the series 4 games to 2.
Oilers in 6, same as when Round 2 started.
Let’s go, Oilers! (clap-clap, clap-clap-clap)
Vancouver looked over at Edmonton and got a really good centreman. Good move. Then they also loaded up on big defencemen for a specific reason.
Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
People are throwing out Jack Campbell’s name, like give him a chance in net in Game 4. Take a deep breath, folks. He’s not even practising with the Oiler playoff people.
Kind of surprised by the Soucy suspension. If Zadorov never gets involved, Soucy throws a cross check that his McDavid in the shoulder/chest pad area, and it’s a completely nothing moment. Instead, Zadorov, who was not involved and skated out of his way to involve himself to cross check a guy from behind right in the low back which then causes Soucy’s to hit McDavid in the face.
So obviously Soucy shouldn’t be throwing cross checks after the game is done, but he was a victim of his own team mates actions. The intent wasn’t ever really there. Lot more egregious stuff has happened during this series that never got a second look.
Overall, I think I’d rather Soucy just play next game instead of hearing the Canucks fans whine endlessly about league favoritism. Christ, I’d take 10 Flames fans before a Canucks fan.
Can’t agree. Nobody should be taking high cross check shots at anyone, and it was high even if the face wasn’t intended. It’s precedent so it might get the league’s eyes on these two who are playing at the outer bounds. Zad is trying to hurt people beyond hockey plays and that is not ok. It’s not Gladiator. I’m sure the Dys ‘fans’ like having goons so they can take the consequences of employing them
This series has completely sucked the joy out of hockey for me (NHL hockey, to be clear). The Oilers are a skilled team. That’s a disadvantage in the NHL playoffs (unless you’ve got a Kucherov or MacKinnon on your team, then the calls, and cups, seem to come). After Leon was crosschecked in the back during the 1st on the PP, I switched the game off. I don’t watch hockey for lessons in how life isn’t fair – I have life outside of hockey providing that lesson on a regular basis. I’m honestly sick of watching this gaslighting and referee apology. It comes in degrees from opposing fans and pundits:
1.”It’s a tough sport. Not for the faint of heart” – even if they called the rulebook, that would hold true. It’s a meaningless statement in the context of crosschecks in the back not being treated as a contravention of the rulebook and instead merely frowned upon. Or worse, an endearing part of the playoffs. Is it the rite-of-passage badge-of-honour crowd saying this one?
2.”It’s a tough game to referee” – No, it isn’t. Full stop. It’s not hard. There are cameras everywhere. There are teams behind the scenes reviewing footage. There are more referees than ever on the ice. Given the value of the assets on the ice, employing a referee for every player on the ice wouldn’t be unaffordable. Every other pro-sport has adjusted how it enforces the rule book and the NHL is still in the stone age. If you can measure offside to the millimetre, you can call a crosscheck to the kidneys (one of those two plays is actually dangerous but we’re only concerned with the integrity of the game when its offside).
3.”Both sides were both doing it” – Leon has been targeted multiple times now in the playoffs and has been injured to the point of significant diminished ability. The Andersen slewfoot in 2022, without a quesion, was part of why they looked completely out of gas against the Avs. They couldn’t roll Leon and McD separately and got eaten alive by the Avs depth. Last year he wasn’t the same after the Pietrangelo slash. This year, he takes a cross check under his equipment, probably cracks a rib, and is greatly slowed now. He can’t C his own line. It’s clear. He did nothing to deserve these injuries outside of being within a scrum (and he’s never the guy throwing punches). This is not “both sides”. Talk about Evander Kane hitting Hughes all you want. He’s 20% of Zadorov, Miller, and Soucy. Also, it’s clear McD slashed Soucy on the padding of his shorts. Then he gets a kidney shot and a face crosscheck – how are those proportional? Is this just infantile black and white thinking driving this argument?
4.”The playoffs is a slog and you’ve got to fight through it” – taking crosschecks in the back that makes you lose your balance, isn’t “fighting through it”. I’d love for anyone reading to actually withstand a JT Miller crosscheck to the lower back. I think we’re all forgetting ‘why’ crosschecks are illegal. I didn’t see it live, but the McD double crosscheck in any other circumstance would have police throwing you in the back of the squad car and probably an assault charge incoming.
5.”The referees don’t want to decide the game” – if referees bias not making calls, it benefits the other team commiting the infraction. They didn’t call the JT Miller cross check because they didn’t want to put the Canucks down 5on3. We’re forgetting that the crosscheck resulted in a turnover once Leon spilled. This basically favours the team breaking the rules.
The McD double crosscheck and the Pietrangelo slash on Leon last year don’t happen without a loss of consequences. We all saw how squeaky clean the Kings played in games 4 and 5 this year, game 6 last year, and game 7 in 2022 – they didn’t want to take penalties and face the Oilers PP. The Canucks are not beating the Oilers up, they’re intentionally injuring them so they can avoid playing them at full strength. If the Canucks were honestly worried about penalties, they wouldn’t even be half as bad as they are. And if the Canucks went squeaky clean, watch how the Oilers would behave too. They’re a skilled team that just wants to skate.
Thought experiment:
If any of us found out that the NHL has been colluding behind the scenes to tip the scale for American markets, or at least larger markets, would any of us be completely blindsided by that news? That’s a tell.
If any of us found out that it wasn’t just the players and randomness that decided games but ‘someone’ off the ice making decisions outside the rulebook, would we enjoy watching as much? Of course not.
I watch the NHL under the assumption that it’s the players and bounces that determine the outcome. Now that it’s clear that the skilled team is at a disadvantage the moment the puck is dropped (because scumbaggery is not only not disincentivized but actually incentivized), I’m completely nauseated. I don’t know how to not care about this and still love watching. I just can’t understand how I could possibly enjoy this team as much as I have my entire life while also knowing that they aren’t just playing the other team. And it’s not just fairness, I don’t like watching anyone get crosschecked in the back with the intent to take them out of the game. That’s just vile behaviour. But to a significant part of NHL fandom, it’s just part of the game.
The NHL has a bonkers culture and I need a break..
Well you have Gretzky and Lemieux on your side. It may change with a more modern vision at the helm. Bettman is obsessed with getting NHL across all US markets. Right from the start he said he would prove it’s not a regional sport
I have read and heard many things that would say that they are not paying attention to other things that may negatively affect their growth and audience potential, or acknowledging threats from other emerging sports like soccer and surging women’s sports
The better the product is the better the industry is. Just because revenues are growing it doesn’t mean everything is tickety boo forever. I can’t imagine someone trying to become a fan and watching two half skilled giant thugs, after the game is over, assaulting the game’s best player with little consequence and thinking ‘that’s pretty cool!’. When they have the foil of other pro sports that would bring the hammer down when the ones they come to watch are put in career jeopardy
People are well sick of unfairness right now, and trust no one, all the polls say so. New blood is so badly needed in the league. You know it when so many long term fans are thinking they’ve had enough, and dusty old farts push old narratives for things most actual fans don’t want, and are years behind the world as it is
Note the comment below ↓ for a mentality stuck in the iron age.
That’s the funny thing about growth – it looks good and lacks comparability with what the next best choice would have been. Had there been an innovator in the NHL head office the past 20 years, who knows what could have become.
I remember when Betmann left the NBA and came to the NHL. Where’s the NBA now? It seems to have thrived without him and grown far faster than the NHL.
What needs to happen is someone needs to cross check Nikita Zadorov in the mouth and send him to the dentists chair.
The NHL Playoffs are an Old Testament battle. That’s why it makes for good tv.
I’m not entertained by watching young men getting crosschecked in the kidneys, slewfoot, and slashed on their wrists for no reason other than an intention to injure.
You act like these players have been maimed. This is hockey. Professional hockey. It’s like ballet now compared with the 70’s.
McDavid is fine. Sore jaw. Draisaitl has a rib injury but he seems to be able to play in spite of it.
You’re being a drama queen and that’s the real story here.
This comment reminds me of when I’d get homophobic or racist slurs when at work, I was told, “maybe you just aren’t cut out for being a pharmacist”.
I should say that while I dislike the things you mention, I like fighting. When fighting in hockey, you rarely hate or even dislike your opponent. Its a rush of adrenaline, a contest, a battle of physical strength and aggression. But I don’t know any fighters that actually want to hurt their opponent.
A fight requires consent. I’m ok with that to an extent but the whole CTE problem is a thing… We don’t need more Boogaards.
Do you feel like this is what playoff hockey should look like? Because if you do then I would have to agree with AA. You are stuck in the ice age.
I want to see a ballet (as you put it) on ice. I want to see the McDavids, Hughes, Makars, Kempes (insert any player with skill) weave their magic on the ice and let them determine the winner and leave it out of the hands of the zadorovs of soucys of the NHL.
There are many unskilled douches (like the two listed above) that their only hope of competing against skill is with cross checks and hacks. They know they can get away with this BS because sadly, there is a different set of rules in the playoffs. And this is why this form of entertainment is losing its appeal for me.
If a guy gets hurt from a good clean hard hit that’s part of it. Good checking is fun. Because they have interfered with the players policing themselves the game has become more dangerous. I’ve always disliked cross checking because it diminished Gretzky’s career, delivered by a complete douche of a player that should have been removed, did it to two stars
Hits from behind, kneeing, all crap. But at one time if you took a swipe at Wayne you knew at least two were coming for you, serious types, and opting out was career suicide for most. Now it is up to the league to take care of their own because of what they chose to do. I think Connor gets hacked more than Wayne did
This would never happen but let’s imagine a league where even body checking was verboten. Think of the awesome ballet then. Skill unchecked. You want the pick, then come use your skill and get it away from. You think McDavid is magic now??
I enjoyed your detailed post. But I cannot turn off the TV and as I stated before “it makes my blood boil” and I want to react, thus playing into the culture as you suggest.
The problem is, what do we do today? And its not like we or they could not see this coming. Everybody has the same game plan against the Oilers. Every year. And our team did not arm themselves properly for the battle. This assault on top players is wrong yet 100% predictable. What was the Oilers plan as these two throw themselves onto the rocks until they break?
Count on refs to provide power plays? That is unpredictable. Count on the league? It is infuriating that a skilled game is nullified.
Today we have a problem. How to proceed. How to play a game to capitalize on our skill while keeping the opponent from injuring them.
What goads me is the template is in house and Holland saw it all first hand. Sather made sure that the Oilers were never out muscled and were not nice to play against. Also had a goalie :). The playoffs are not for vanilla players. It’s too rough and violent except for those that like it and are built to take it physically and mentally
But preferably dish it out. That being said the league does allow it against and not for. If Vinny was doing those things he’d be out for games
Again vanilla. The POHO and the guy at the top need to be very pushy with the league. I know that there are some teams that would make life very unpleasant for GB if they didn’t like what was going on. And the Oilers have the hammer, they are a top revenue producer, easy argument to bring. The league is all about revenues. Have to have the will to
Yesterday, I switched the game off and the wife and I watch a cheesy Bradley Cooper film (Burnt). It had chef toxicity but somehow it didn’t affect my enjoyment. Probably because they’re actors and it’s not real.
The NHL is watched because it’s assumed that each team has a fair chance. It’s very clear that this is not actually the case. If you have a skilled team, you have to overcome more obstacles. It reminds me of the WWF where it’s just about the spectacle. Are we just fans of the Edmonton Hulk Hogans? I like to think fandom of Connor McDavid and Wayne Gretzky has a little more substance than silly child and man-child scripted drama.
I don’t mind heavy hockey, I mind intent to injure star players. None of the 3 plays I discussed on Leon were anywhere remotely hockey plays. And the answer is to have a coke machine to throw at their best players? The NHL has become a 1980s playground where bullying was a necessary rite of passage and the teacher will suspend the bully and the bullied equal time for being in a fight. And then the bullied is told that maybe if they weren’t so whiny, it would get better.
I agree. Play with more speed, lay more body checks, heck even get into more fights. But the endless cross checking, holding, slashing, interfering. What’s tough about that? It’s boring, and does nothing until somebody gets hurt.
Those crosschecks on the injured Draisaitl were gross
Morgan Rielly said that he is going to take cross checking lessons from Edmunson to be more effective in the playoffs
While i understand your frustration…
Hockey is a physical and violent sport. Everytime i read rants about hating the physical (and some filthy aspect) i wonder….is hockey really for you.?
Ive watched a couple european hockey games. Its trash in my opinion. I want physicality. Too much of the movement right now is removing all the physical from the game. I dont want thst myself.
Maybe i am a knuckledragger… so be it. I like hockey rough. Need a balance for sure. But id prefer more gordie howe elbows from leon rather than us begging for the refs to remove any and all aggression or violence…
@frank_seravalli
Carson Soucy has been suspended 1 game by @NHLPlayerSafety for his cross-check of Connor McDavid at the end of Game 3.
·
2m
#Canuck
He will be eligible to return in Game 5 on Thursday night.
Well that’s good. He was their 6 D in TOI last night, but it helps. I was hoping he was higher
I also hope Connor feels fine physically and unfriendly mentally
Connor did media today and sounded/looked fine.
He missed a period didn’t he?
Menstruation?
🤣🤣🤣
Soucey and Myers have played the most against McDavid among the D at 5 on 5 – over 10 minutes more than the Hughes pairing.
ooops
Pleased to see there is consequences
NHL Player Safety
Vancouver’s Carson Soucy has been suspended for one playoff game for cross-checking Edmonton’s Connor McDavid.
I would imagine Zadorov moves up to the second pairing and Noah Juulsen draws in to play with Cole.
Juulsen however is a right shot who would be playing his off side.
Isn’t Cole a left shot, who has been playing on the right side?
You are correct.
Mibad.
Was remembering Nurse from Jets-Oilers series….went back and read some lowetide posts from series. Seems the consensus was he was a beast, apparently playing mostly with Barrie. Not sure what that means…
Forgot that the second line in game four was Shore Nuge Kassian. This team has come a long way…I hope they can get some saves to see how far.
It means sign Barrie to replace Ceci in the off season and get stretcher in there for game 4
Saw some comments that the Oilers did not dominate when the 5-man unit were off but, alas, they definitely controlled the flow of play and won the expected goal battle:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=3&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=gpteam&fd=2024-04-20&td=2024-05-13&tgp=1&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477934&p3=8475786&p4=8480803&p5=8475218
Or you could look at it like at 5v5 there was no Oiler under 60% CF%. No player under 53% SF%
GF 5v5 – nobody
GA 5v5
McDavid
Nurse
Bouchard
Kane
Draisaitl
Ekholm
Nuge
Foegele
Hyman
Chasing the game they faded 8 guys in TOI. At the end of the day you have to score some 5v5 goals. Tying special teams meant they couldn’t win the game. The other stats are nice but…. This is why I said pre playoffs I was concerned about 5v5 scoring, like last year, and I got a lot of pushback. I get why, but it’s not as it appears sometimes
I have been impressed with how they are able to get up the ice easier than last playoffs overall. Kudos to Coach Coffey, it’s so much better and drives those nice possession stats
Where the 5v5 issue is mainly to me is that they really have trouble getting inside collapsing teams, with quality chances, or the better set up chances that are more likely to be goals, the higher percentage plays
The team as a whole aren’t great finishers. At this point I only think Bouch and Ekholm are, and Dad is also struggling now. Leon missed two clean chances in alone, game on the line. Leon can finish fine, from one spot on the ice mostly. Connor isn’t shooting like last year for whatever reason. Hyman doesn’t always get in position for a shot (even though he got a few beauties this season) and gets in so tight he can’t take one. And has tunnel vision and doesn’t look to pop the puck out to a guy a few feet back, if there was one there, often isn’t. Still got a whack of reg season goals, but we need them now. Etc etc
I still believe they will get it in the end, and if so because our best players are more talented. But it seems they are going to need luck, get the bounces, as opposed to taking over the series as they do against LA. Which might have been the different if they let their horses run more
You may be right about Hyman’s methodology but it’s worth noting that he led the Oilers in SOG last night with 8.
In the playoffs, his shooting percentage is still 25% which is considerably above his career average of 13.7%
Yes for sure. I wonder if they count 4 pounded pucks into the pads as 1 shot or 4? The real question is can these top guns score in the games enough at evens? That’s the rub
There is still time no need to panic defensively wise in our deployment and strategy. Kris first and foremost is the boss and with that comes hard decision making. This could be a turning point in our playoff run and his life. Start Pickard he’s earned the opportunity with all the years he’s toiled his craft has me confident he can not only handle the pressure that he’ll embrace it. Woody didn’t have the stones to play Campbell in game 6 and Vegas capitalized on a early gaffe by Skinner that set the tone for the game 6 loss. We can not afford to go down 3-1 before he makes the move.
So LT asked which goal Stu should have saved. For sure the third one. Sat back in his net and gave Boeser to much net. And the fourth goal he looked tentative on. Should have been more aggressive there as well. Just my opinion
IMO, none of the goals were egregiously bad, however, none were impossible saves and similar saves are routinely often made.
This pretty much hits it for me. One more save.
Their goalie stole 2-3 goals, and our goalie stole none. That was the difference in the game. Stu has failed to elevate his game in the post season. He has looked awkward in his net, playing too deep. Stu has been outplayed by a 3rd string goalie, playing his 6th game in the NHL.
Stuey needs to start grabbing Canuck sticks during goalmouth scrambles, like the guy at the other end. Apparently, this is a legal and legit tactic….
That was a game changing moment.
Not to mention throwing the stick.
Should have been a penalty and a penalty shot.
What would the stats say about who is best on the PK? If the 4th line is a non factor I want PK wizards. If I recall Carrick and Henrique were key contributors in round 1.
Henrique is badly missed.
Just listened to Woodley on the Halforfd and Brough show. He said Skinner was top 5 in the NHL in the last 2/3 of the season. But still needs to make some saves.
As LT mentioned which one should he have had last night?
The tip on the first PP marker?
The wide open look in the slot… the one where 97 left Boeser naked?
The other wide open look off the McLovin turnover?
The other PP marker where Lindholm traps it under his skate and makes a move to the net? BTW Woodley specifically talked about there not being a manual for making that save.
Yep Skinner needs to make some saves and steal a goal away from the Canucks. He can’t do it from the bench.
He’s thinking too much. That is bad for any player when it’s affecting their instinctive play, slows them down. On Lindholm in tight that is all reaction , and he was behind, Lindholm wasn’t coming in fast. He made a small poke at it with his stick off ice and didn’t get it, and didn’t react with his pad until it was past
As said below a lot of goals against are expected saves. The old expression is he’s fighting the puck. I don’t think they should start him but if so it has to be a short leash. Maybe he is fine Thursday but it’s been a few games
https://x.com/meghanchayka/status/1790095982631248035?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
stuart skinner has 13 goals allowed on low quality shots in the playoffs. Just cannot play him until he figures it out.
I believe Soucy has a chance to be suspended because he plays for the Canucks. If he played for Vegas it’d be a 5000 fine.
If he played for Vegas he would get one game and McDavid a game for the slash
If I’m Knoblauch (Oilers fans are so, so lucky I’m not), I’m putting Kane Perry and Nurse on the ice for the opening faceoff in Game 4 and somebody on the Nucks is getting bodied.
Was it Thornton and Getzlaf who squared off 1 second in during a playoff game?
Isn’t that what Tocchet had Lindholm & Joshaua do to Ekholm on the first shift of game three. That set the tone for the game and the Oilers were too busy trying to be stoic.
Would we call Skinner’s playoff body of work a small sample size?
With no offense to our esteemed host, I think that that small sample size is starting to put on weight. I discussed the reason for my trepidation regarding Skinner around January or February I think. I’m the X-Files poster, “I Want to Believe!” and I do, until I don’t. I don’t. I think he’s a fine goalie, and I think/hope he finds that ability to become clutch. Right now he’s looking like a guy that can’t play in front of the shite defense that good ol’ our team is trotting out right now. Lot’s of blame to go around, and yes it’s a team game, but I don’t think that there’s a person out there that isn’t related to Stu that wouldn’t point out that the guy in the other net is absolutely eating his lunch and giving his team the bare minimum of saves, compared to Skinner thus far. I don’t get the feeling he’s going to steal a game at this point.
Not to be pedantic and I apologize for replying to myself (hit enter too soon) but I don’t get the sense that THIS version of Skinner is capable of stealing a playoff game with the level of his play. He looks below average. The team D is awful right now, but Skinner is reminding me a lot of Koskinen…okay, but ain’t nobody winning a close game with him in net right now. (Right now is my qualifier…I think he’s a lot better than he’s showing.) I’m hoping that they start Picard, and the team plays for him…they did so a lot during the season…they tightened up with him in net a lot.
Welcome to the club. Original Pouzar and I are the founding members.
OP is talking to Loblaws to work out a deal where we get Optimum points for every blog comment.
This made me laugh way too much! Esteemed company I’m sure. We’re introducing (way overdue) a policy that locks users out at work after x amount of password failures…like any rational company would do.
Odds are even that I get locked out early and often, because I type faster than I think. It will happen.
So Zadorov gets a $5000 fine for a vicious cross check to Connors back after the game has expired. If that hit has injured Connor in any way, affecting his performance going forward, that seems like a small price to pay. His team mates probably chip in and pay it. NHL Department of Player Safety is a complete joke. Maybe it’s time to start targeting Boeser, Hughes and Petersen……
Hughes, in particular, has been targeted repeatedly.
I’ve read a lot of commentary and watched video about the whole extravaganza, and I think the most unnecessary & cowardly action was Zardov’s crosscheck from behind that most likely made the whole exchange between McDavid & Soucy worse than it needed to be.
I don’t believe it was premeditated in any way, but it seriously looked like an attempt to decapitate. Zardov is getting off easy, they should both be suspended to the max. And by the way, I have heard nothing on McDavid’s condition after near decapitation. Is Connor Ok?
I guess he says he feels great. LOL
NHL is bush league across the board, not just with regards to the Oil. Missed calls. Bad calls. Purely made up calls. Just pure garbage in every game, for all teams. An unfunny joke league….
Sorry if this has been asked and answered, but why did Skinner have to got back in the net at the end of the game?
I think just a stalling tactic to give top players more rest????
KK was bending the rules in his favour for the free time out.
And yet, yet again, he didn’t use his actual timeout, unless I missed it but don’t think so. Somebody send him a telegram to tell him how they work.
They did use their time out
hmmm, ok thanks. Live it seemed like the ref was the one who said Pickard had to leave the net for Skinner, but maybe it was just him yelling at KK to get someone in the pipes
I think this illustrates that Skinner is still a young goalie…he didn’t milk the time, rather he rushed out to net. I’m disappointed in his playoff play, but Campbell was meant to be in net…Skinner at 27 or 28 might be up for moment more.
It does seem like the Draisaitl injury has forced the Oilers into their old, not-ideal habits.
The top line is fantastic but I agree with CrazyCoach, that leaves the Oilers a little anemic for most of the game.
The top-line issue leads to the secondary issue of the Oilers been too overwhelmed in the d-zone, which leads to the goalies looking bad, and losing games.
You should read Yost’s piece up today TSN
It seems according to his look you remove one thing and everybody is doing fine, except finishing
What looks clear to me is that Vancouver has amped up the physicality. It’s not like the Oilers can’t deal with it, they dealt with it fine in the LA series by turning the other check and being disciplined. In fact, the officials complimented them, and things obviously went their way during that series. However, while adopting the same strategy in round two against the Knucklehead’s somehow, it’s not working. Oilers need to match Vancouver physicality, especially after the mugging McDavid took at the end of game three. That was a disgraceful display. It should change the temperature of this series, not only that, but it should benefit Edmonton. Canucks are wearing the black hats and good prevails over evil,
or at least that’s what LT would tell us. I think?
The Canucks are much faster than the Kings
Hey folks,
Just some random thoughts on a Monday.
Was listening to the post game show with Rob Brown and he brought up an interesting point. He was saying that all the Canucks have to do is really survive the onslaught of the top line, which is not easy. However, you do that every 3-4 minutes and the space in between is where you hammer the Oilers. That’s very true. This is an easy team to play against. It has been for a long time and that fact hasn’t changed.
I was chatting with an old friend of mine who I used to coach with. Guy knows his stuff about hockey and has been involved for well over 50 years. Was actually a recent recipient of the Gordon Juckes award for his contribution to hockey. Anyway, he’s an old goalie and the topic came up about Skinner. His comment was, “He moves really well, but he needs to build some confidence right now!” Once again, I really question why the Oilers have a goaltending coach, whose biggest accomplishment seems to be giving every goalie the yips? Very few guys seem to survive the house cleaning of coaches, but yet, Dustin Schwatrz remains a fixture. Now I know were are talking about human beings here and as a member of the coaching fraternity I like to side with coaches, but this is beyond ridiculous. Can we just drive up to Benoit Allaire’s house and drop a dump truck load of money at his feet?
One of Nurse or Ceci has to come out and put Stecher in. They are getting caved in every time they are on the ice. Every fan knows this, every sports writer, every analysis, and here’s a news flash, so does every NHL coach out there. Just not getting it done right now.
This has just not been a good series for the Oilers. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong and this series is a long ways from done, but the luck has to change somehow.
Not sure how do that?
Find a way to get McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines that work.
Therein lies the problem.
No one outside of the top line has done a thing this series.
Not a single thing.
I was mentioning around the deadline how surprised people would be at the difference in the other forwards (and team overall) if the RS D had some more mobile players that could outlet at an NHL level and play the bluelines better
Especially with a team built around Connor. Coffey recognizes it but the horses aren’t there. I’d also change some forwards when the time comes, but with better puck movement and support they’d be having a much easier time of it
It’s more important for regular players than Connor and sometimes Leon because they can’t just get mad and do it all themselves. Thinking of minor hockey it reminds me of times when there’s a player that is so much better skating that they can go around the whole team repeatedly at will. Everyone else relies on each other to do anything, and their teammates winning their individual plays
Agree with your old goalie buddy. Confidence. Seems to me Skinner was a bit shook after that trapezoid penalty. Before he would shake things off quickly but this is, what, 2 games now? Like LT said, when the team D is going well Skinner is fine.
The loss is not just on him, there are a few overall team issues as our host and others have pointed out. I have an curious eye test; when it ‘looks’ like the other team appears to have stronger sticks, the Oil are usually losing.
Have to give some credit to a good team, the Canucks were emotionally ramped up and ready and had a crafty Tocchet plan of attack. Their bursts were just a bit better last night, the OIl? not quite but it was close. It wasn’t a blowout.
End of season I was feeling pretty confident the Oil could win several ways; tight games, shutdown. My confidence is a little shaky after last night but I still believe they can win this series if they play like they can. We’ve seen it.
update; McD is okay. Vicious BS still needs to be addressed I say.
getting caved 45-16 in shots doesn’t sound like an easy team to play against. Got alot and gave up very little.
Both Nurse and Ceci had highly positive shot attempt and shot share numbers last night.
Darnell Nurse played a total of a 1 minute with McDavid at 5 on 5 and, without him was 64% Corsi and 57% shot share.
I’m not saying this pairing has been good but lets not exaggerate to such a degree, right?
If you’re a Skinner fan, putting him in next game is not conducive to his long term future with the club. I’m not scapegoating the guy, sometimes a team has a guy’s number, sometimes it’s nerves, it doesn’t really matter that much.
Knoblauch is a supposed master of adjustments. Getting pretty close to being on the ropes, here. I’d rather him make some big changes for game 4 than fiddle around the edges, even if that means losing the series. He has to coach to win, players’ feelings be damned.
A critique I have of game 3’s otherwise pretty excellent effort:
Where is the playmaking up top from the D when Ekholm/Bouchard are not on the ice? It’s pretty much non-existent. Kulak will jump up and Desharnais had a great chance, but otherwise it’s a lot of dumping back into the corner and hoping that you regain possession.
I don’t know enough about Stecher’s game to know if he will move the needle over Ceci in this particular department. My feeling is probably not. Broberg could.
Stecher is a warrior and should have been inserted for game three in place of Ceci, if he doesn’t get in for game four it will a travesty. Also, Pickard should get the start and Campbell should back him up. Let Skinner watch and learn. Oilers need to play sound defensive hockey and hit everything in a Canuck jersey, especially their top players.
“How bad is it? Skinner not only has the worst numbers of any netminder to start a game in Oilers postseason history. But he is also the NHL’s worst playoff performer in the salary cap era by a sizable margin. Of all 69 goalies since 2005 with at least 15 playoff appearances, Skinner ranks dead last in save percentage with an .881 mark in 20 games. He’s worse than Kari Lehtonen’s .887 (19 games) and Nikolai Khabibulin’s .898 (15 games) – and that’s not a small sample size” – Frank Seravalli
I knew it was bad but not that bad!
I don’t get the 20 playoff games is a small sample size . That’s a careers worth sample size for a lot of goalies
Your goalie needs to make a save or two. If we advance the shooters on the Av’s and Dallas are top notch. The boys are tired of covering for Skinner they’re playing their hearts out but every opportunity is in the back of the net. Skinner is playing scared way to deep. Insert Pickard and we win 3 straight.
Are we sure Knoblauch thinks the 5 man unit is his only hope, or that with Vancouver generating less than his team that it’s the dagger
I hope he’s figuring it out. It doesn’t work like clockwork simply expecting they beat up the bad guys every game. Play the team and fade the guys who forgot to bring their brains to the game. Even if it means sitting Connor or Leon for a while if they have lost focus and aren’t coming back right
Call your tits people! A little adversity now will pay dividends in the next 2 rounds…..We will prevail
I tried calling them that and they aren’t responding to it
If I could get a hold of my tits I’d never leave the house.