If someone other than Connor McDavid would have scored the winning goal, the Hockey Gods would have harmed their collective reputations forever. After missing point blank earlier, the captain deflected a brilliant Evan Bouchard pass into the net and sent everyone in Dallas home, as the city of Edmonton prepared for a contented sleep.
Game 1 wasn’t anything close to what we might have expected, so it’s reasonable to assume the rest of the series will play out differently. The Oilers can play the kind of game we saw last night, one in which five-on-five play (32-25 shots, 3-2 goals, 56 percent expected goals, 16-10 HDSC) carries the day no matter special teams impact.
I’m not sure all of the conversations we had before the first game held true. I did not see a goaltending gap between Jake Oettinger (.921 in all game states) and Stuart Skinner (.939SP in all situations) many felt would be an issue. That hammer may fall, but for me Skinner’s 2GA were on plays that most goalies would surrender tallies on.
One thing that did hold true pertains to Edmonton’s depth. Ryan McLeod was a talking point entering the series and his line went 0-1 goals at five-on-five. I don’t think there is a giant need for consternation, after all we know why the goals were scored and McLeod was not in photo because he was doing his job. Still, for the postseason Edmonton is 6-3 goals five-on-five when the Glimmer Twins are together, 11-6 McDavid solo, 10-10 Leon solo and 4-9 with both impact centers at rest. That’s still a talking point after last night. The Adam Henrique bat signal may be activated soon.
Evan Bouchard’s pass to McDavid on the winner is exactly why his approval rating should be 100 percent among Oilers fans. I keep reading how he doesn’t have urgency and how he looks indifferent. People can’t control how they look, Bouchard is a person who has a face that suggests total relaxation. Look at his actions, not his face, people! He’s brilliant, absolutely brilliant and in this configuration (playing with elite forwards) pure hockey dynamite.
I wanted to talk about Dylan Holloway this morning, I wrote about him this week and there’s another article I have at The Athletic coming out today than mentions him as well. Holloway was all over the ice, had three HDSC and was an obvious forechecker from hell for the Stars defense. He’s acting like Rutger Hauer in The Hitcher currently. Cold, calculating and deadly. It’s so damn unusual for an organization to be gifted with exactly what is needed right on time. Incredible.
Finally, the officials. In road games at Dallas for at least 25 years, maybe longer, the officiating is questionable. This phenomenon has been evident in other exotic places like Anaheim, Los Angeles and Vegas this century. The evidence available this morning suggests the Stars were rewarded handsomely, and that should even out over the series. Will it? We wait.
Final item: I know you’re happy, I’m happy for you. Don’t for a minute believe the next three wins, should they come, will be as easy. Not so.
Lowdown hits planet earth at noon today, on Sports 1440. Two hours of fun and laughter ahead of the weekend! Steve Lansky will give you his unfiltered truth about last night’s game, and Tyler Yaramchuk is in Dallas and will give us the latest from ground zero. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
Can’t allow another shot this game.
Regarding Henrique, I would definitely insert him in the line up for Carrick and leave him as 4c.
This would allow the majority of the line up to stay the same and upgrade the 4th line so they can take an extra few minutes a game from the top lines.
Henrique is a top 6 player in all areas who is known for face off abilities. He could ignite some bottom 6 production.
What about inserting Henrique between McLeod and Foegele and dropping Ryan to 4, but playing 4 and 3 lines effectively equally? Agreed he should be put in a place to productively work himself back into the lineup but maybe the third line could all work back into form together while the roster of fourth liners effectively play elevated minutes given they have been so solid. That’s what I would do anyway.
Confidence is a dangerous thing and the Oilers picked up a lot in G1. LA and VAN may not be the best teams but they were better structured to beat the Oilers. Dallas’ game is much more to their liking – and with them running only 5 (and sometimes 4) dmen – it could easily snowball out of control for them. Lots of games left but the Oilers know (not hope) they can beat that team.
Same on the other side – good that NYR won as they are a much better opponent for us. FLA is the only team left that really worries me.
Kelly Hrudey has been converted. Watch him tonight. He loves the Bouch.
Every set of eyeballs is a potential Oiler fan. The potential recruits are endless.
One of us.. one of us.. one of us..
Gabba gabba, hey.
I was a big supporter of Holloway prior to his breakout, not so much Broberg.
Now, seeing just how much value Holloway brings has me excited to see what Broberg will bring once he arrives. I feel I have underestimated him, and look forward to it.
You should watch the interaction between Holloway and Drai. And then Holloway and Kane.
He has lots to learn 😉
Waddell has left the Canes. Tulsky named interim GM. Canes initiating a GM search now.
Hopefully, Canes hire someone externally. Then Tulsky says to himself, “wtf, I’m the one making all the decisions around here and they don’t even consider me for the big corner office?”
The new Jeff Jackson regime strikes while the iron is hot. They have Parkatti text Tulsky an innocuous question about confidence intervals and linear regression. The conversation naturally drifts towards the early Oilogosphere and about how Eric’s grade 5 field trip to The Mall was so great. Yadda yadda yadda and the Oilers snatch Tulsky as their new GM.
The Canes have iced good reg season teams that don’t win in playoffs. Tulsky has been there 10 years
They have had the same issues for years. Can’t find a consistent goalie. I think the Oilers need a turn to a more aggressive GM that has a clear idea of what they need to get even better and is good at getting that
For me not what they need unless Tulsky has been held back from his vision or something
I think there’s a bit of a “cup ring fallacy” that people fall victim to.
We saw that previously with Chiarelli. He had made plenty of mistakes on his way out of Boston, but he had a cup ring.
Interim GM? Still an amazing story. From an inorganic chemist to a guy who wrote some trailblazing articles on the Sports blog network to an NHL GM.
Definitely interview him – be curious as to his explanation as to why the team he advised has continued to disappoint in the playoffs, year after year?
From accounts, he had a say in all player transaction matters yet there they are again, not in the final four let alone the stanley cup finals.
I don’t understand the Tulsky hype. Carolina has won 5 playoff rounds in the last 5 years, which is the same as the Oilers (so far) under Ken Holland.
Question for the group. In what situation can the refs go to video review on a possible penalty. They did so last night on 97. Is only 9n dangerour plays; head shots, stick in the face. Because I’m wondering why they could not have given 97 the double minor, and Duchesne 2 for holding the stick which was obvious.
They didnt review until after the double minor was assessed. They can review a double minor.
The weird thing was they didnt see it, so they called a huddle and assessed a penalty (correctly) retroactively.
I’ve never seen that before.
Its the other weak penalties that bothered me, then missing the high sticking the goalie penalty.
The linesman called the high sticking penalty. They cannot make the call until the next stoppage in play and tell/consult the officials. It it is a 4 or 5 minute penalty, it goes for authomatic review in Toronto. It was not called retroactively, since the linesman cannot tell the official unitl the next stoppage of play.
I looked back and didn’t see a stick hold. He had his stick over Connor’s and if Duchene wasn’t leaning over and towards Connor wouldn’t have got it in the chops. But he was, have to be more careful on Connor’s part
Please Columbus hire Waddell asap!
checking out the other series with the intent on looking at who we might face in the final….been ages since I have done that
So with Skinner hiring his own goalie coach what does Schwartz do ?
From what I recall, Schwartz is a supernatural force that is kept by Yogurt.
Daryl hasn’t figured out where he’s hidden the pictures yet.
See OP’s reply to Chambers at 12:42.
Foggy projected to go $3.9 x 3.
I don’t suspect we’ll see that, but who knows.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/ufa-projections-how-much-money-did-canucks-elias-lindholm-cost-himself-this-year
Warren has been unimpressive for the most part this playoff season. A few plays here and there. Some other team can sign him for that money.
Also listed is Janmark at $1m – I would sign that if that is all it would take.
Foegele went 15 5-4-9 in the playoffs in his rookie year. He’s been 56 5-4-9 since, including 38 3-3-6 with the Oilers 😬
Foegele needs to sign elsewhere because we need better players. Less mistake prone and playoff types
Janmark is a beauty and he will sign for 1M. He got 1.25M the year before and had twice the points, took a pay cut to stay. 12 points won’t get him a raise
Warren is costing himself money every time he takes the ice this playoff
I would of pumped which they did and dumped for someone younger and edgier. So a straight up old fashioned hockey trade. I like Foegele but he’ll be gone and he was ripe to get a half decent return.
Need a GM that sees it in the first place
Hopefully
My Cousin Vinny is listed at only $1.1 million.
I look for him to sign 2 x $1.5MM with the Oil in June.
That’s about right based on his regular season.
Oilers can’t, and shouldn’t, pay that.
Ended up harder on the nerves than it probably needed to be due to Kulak’s mistake but overall a very solid outing. They looked the hands down better team but we’ve seen that before these playoffs just to follow up looking the far lesser squad in the next one. Dallas is a very strong group and will no doubt come out hard on saturday.
On his gaffe I think Kulak had a different play in mind when Ekholm banged his stick and Kulak decided to move it to him, which was a good play had he made it cleanly but that last second change of play has a tendency to be a little messy technically.
My apologies if this has been posted here are elsewhere already. It’s truly stunning to me.
Bouchard is on a run unlike any I’ve ever seen.
Leon with and without Bouchard at EV:
With Without Difference
TOI: 96min 128min –
Corsi: 66.67% 37.93% -28.74%
Shots: 71.28% 38.52% -32.76%
XGF%: 67.04% 38.30% -28.74%
GF%: 66.67% 41.18% -25.49%
Connor with and without Bouchard at EV:
With Without Difference
TOI: 199min 49min –
Corsi: 60.68% 41.35% -19.33%
Shots: 65.52% 41.18% -24.34%
XGF%: 63.93% 30.35% -33.58%
GF%: 72.00% 16.67% -55.33%
Ryan Mcleod with and without Bouchard at EV:
With Without Difference
TOI: 28min 128min –
Corsi: 56.10% 48.56% -7.54%
Shots: 76.92% 51.38% -25.54%
XGF%: 62.12% 52.61% -9.51%
GF%: NA (0-0) 16.67% Na
Matthias Janmark (4th line) with and without Bouchard at EV:
With Without Difference
TOI: 26.5min 92min –
Corsi: 50.00% 37.87% -12.13%
Shots: 57.14% 46.03% -11.11%
XGF%: 66.07% 42.59% -23.48%
GF%: 50.00% 66.67% 16.67% (finally a positive result but tiny sample)
I mean, who put up wowy results like this? Lidstrom? Pronger? Obviously this is a joint effort with Ekholm so I thought I’d quickly check the wowys of the two dmen:
Ekholm and Bouchard together at EV:
TOI: 223min
Corsi: 57.01%
XGF: 61.60%
GF: 69.57% (16-7)
Ekholm apart:
TOI: 17(min) (tiny sample alert)
Corsi: 44.83%
XGF: 19.56%
GF: 33.33% (1-2)
Bouchard apart:
TOI: 44.5(min)
Corsi: 65.17%
XGF: 64.26%
GF: 75.00% (6-2)
Bouchard is my candidate for Conn Smythe. He is not a product of the glimmer twins, he is a man all on his own.
Agreed. He has such a huge impact on games. He has cleaned up his defensive game. Phenomenal player.
Thanks
This is why I have been all about getting more puck able D. It’s fun having a 6’7 guy back there, but with him and Ceci (and Nurse) not being good passers, I think it’s a big part of what ails the bottom 6 offense
Not that you can get or afford another Bouch, but good puck movers drive play. Ideally you can get a bigger physical guy who can do it, somehow, but for a team with forwards like they have it’s more important than potentially crushing people
Not that I want to go smaller, players have to be tough enough to not get pushed out of the play or playoffs games when it’s rough, but more skilled. And not necessarily big points producers, more play enablers for the forwards, get the puck up and out quickly
Holy, thats quite the data set. Never realized just how big Biuchards impact is. Thx for this.
Coach says Henrique is 98% – more time would make him 100% but he’s ready to come back in. They have a decision to make on what’s best for the team. Acknowledged that Henrique hasn’t played in a while but was clear he makes the team better.
Man who comes out? Brown was a beast last night. Ryan was so good on the PK. I am almost tending towards McLeod. Give him a night off, then rotate him in as someone else is needing a night off?
Glad I don’t have to make this decision.
Sam Carrick for me who hasn’t spent even one second on the PK in the three games since he return. I like what’s he’s brought but, for me, keeping the PK pairs and chemistry trumps all else.
I also think that scratching McLeod isn’t something that has even crossed the coach’s mind.
You slot Henrique in beside Janmark on the PK and lose nothing that Brown offers plus gain another faceoff man.
Oiler haven’t lost with Carrick in the lineup, when he wins most of his draws the 4th line spends most of their time not in their own zone at 5×5.
The Oilers PK will be perfectly fine swapping out Brown for Henrique.
Game 6 7 hits 7/12 face offs 3rd most
Game 7 4 hits 5/10 face offs 2nd most
Game 1 4 hits 7/11 face offs 3rd most
42:47mins all at even strength.
Only Kane is credited with more hits during that time as well. All at evens.
Easy decision.
The bigger question should be does Coach leave the 4th line intact and bench Foegele for Henrique.
In the 3 games since Carrick has been in the lineup, Foegele and Carrick have almost the same 5 on 5 ice (within a minute) and Foegele has more shots, more shot attempts, more scoring chances creates, more takeaways, less giveaways and more blocked shots. He’s also a part of the top 3 PK groups that have been essential to success.
In game 7, it was Foegele who was out there after the TO, with an epic forecheck shift.
I don’t agree with the first sentence.
The players and the coaching staff continue to cite chemistry in the PK pairs as a main reason for their success.
For me, keeping the PK rolling is primary and I don’t mess with that at all, not to keep Sam Carrick in the lineup.
Of note, in those 3 games, the player 3rd in hits after Kane and Carrick – Ryan McLeod.
Also, for hits/60 in the playoffs, Henrique is 4th on the team.
Not sure why PDB is getting credit for a cherry picking strategy. Maybe he’s trying to contrast some styles but it came across as amateur to me. That doesn’t work in the NHL, players are too strong of skaters and are too good with their sticks to allow those passes to go.
Overall I thought Dallas looked slow compared to the Canucks. The Oilers had way more time and space. They need to bear down on their chances though. McDavid can’t miss that now but definitely can’t miss it G7 of the finals. Foegele has to get a shot on net when he has a breakaway. I thought they created some
brilliant chances they just couldn’t convert.
I was curious on this too.
I cant recall an nhl team actively cherry picking as part of their system? Maybe im missing something but seemed like we should ve able to push the offence eother 4 on 4 in the o zone or 5 on 4 being mindful?
Didn’t Dadonov get a breakaway early in game 1 using this amateur strategy?
I had posted yesterday that Lebrun said that Carolina is letting Don Waddell talk to other teams.
Does this suggest Tulsky could be Carolina’s internal replacement?
Check post and replies at 10:11 am
I was screaming penalty when it happened in real time when the Dallas player hit Skinner in the head with his Stick chasing a puck. Somebody posted the video of that last night and the discussion ended there. Why? Where’s the Oiler media narrative that the Stars are no Angels and that a call was missed. The Sportsnet panel is anti Oiler they bring in Bowness who has a tattoo of the stars on his ass cheek. Where is Mac-T?
The officiating was appalling.
How did McDavid get four minutes for that high stick? I didn’t see blood?I think you can rally as a team when the officiating is bad our team has gained a lot of momentum after killing the 4 minute minors the last few games. The Woman’s Olympic Gold medal game I think in Salt Lake a few years ago when Canada recieved the first 5-6 penalties comes to mind on slanted officiating.
Yea, there was blood.
There was a lot of blood. Seguin couldn’t come out for the 4 minute PP cause he was getting stitched up.
Seguin? Do you mean Matt Duchene?
McDavid said
Thing is, it didn’t look like his stick was being held by a hand, it looked like it was a stick holding down his stick. Or did I see that wrong?
Lots of blood.
Gazdic is just as much an Oilers fan.
Yes he is but he doesn’t create a narrative like Elliotte, Hrudey, McLean etc .You know Debrusk, Simpson and Singh have been given marching orders not to show any bias toward Oiler Nation so they end up tipping the scale the other way.
The thing that I have not seen mentioned yet is that Knoblauch “abandoned” (i.e. didn’t care so much about) his five man units. He saw or decided that it was going to be a four line game, and if the fourth line is getting more close to equal time at even strength, it becomes more difficult to sustain the three units of five rotation that he leaned into since he took over.
I saw this too. Not sure I’d say it was abandoning though.
Ekholm/Bouch saw a decent chunk of ice with the Drai line and then again with McD.
It was still skill v skill but the wealth of that dpair seemed to be spread a bit for sure.
I noticed he got Ekholm/Bouchard out with that 4th line more often than not. That’s by eye, didn’t check the stats.
Only 2 minutes with Ek/Bouch – 4th line got mostly Nurse/Deharnais.
Vancouver fans seem a little sensitive over the Oilers flag at city hall:
https://x.com/LisaDominato/status/1794044893616288255
All your base now are belong to us!
What did Skinner say in his post game interview? Something about colting up or something. I thought maybe he was going back to the room and having a few beers and a Colts cigar. Which is pretty much awesome. I think he meant something else though. 😀
Cold tub lol
I wonder how much weight Skunner loses a game? He seems to be cocking his head more like Patrick Roy always did. I think this head twitch helps him stay sharp and focused.
Well. was nice to see the Oil beat out the refs in a head to head.
Sadly I think that, rather than leading to balanced officiating here on out, the refs will want to get theirs back. Would not surprise me to learn refs tally this as Oil being ‘due’ more calls like they got last night.
Rags 3 Cats 2 two minute penalties game 1
Stars 1 Oilers 5 (1 x 4min 17 seconds into OT while not calling the obvious stick hold to at least offset one)
Ya ok
I loved the Oilers adapting. First, complete game change compared to last opponent. Less physical, much faster pace.
Dallas did believe “they should worry about us” as opposed to worrying about Connor/Leon.
Their dmen do not hit much, they simply flip the puck out, that’s how they play so many minutes.
That high forward on Dallas was a surprise! Oilers had to adapt and did.
Huge 4 min penalty and a couple of goal posts was the game changer. Oilers need to prep like those pucks went in and get right into these tactical solutions.
What skating though! First time we seen this much speed all playoffs, and Connor was only at 60% speed.
I think Oil will be even better prepared for next game.
Hot take:
Bouchard has been the most impactful Oiler this playoffs. No disrespect to Drai or McD but stud dman have such a huge impact on games. Bouchard’s ability to hold the blue line and breakout cleanly makes the team so dangerous. Love love love this player.
Bouchard has a slight edge over Drai in the internal Conn Smythe race in my books.
Looking at the GF-GA, I’m tempted to go with McDavid over Draisaitl. McDavid is the straw that stirs the drink on the power play.
But Bouchard might be higher than either, right now.
Same and it’s very likely that all 3 players will finish within a couple points of each other. The difference will most likely come down to the sexy stats. Who has more big GWG moments or Drai setting the record for point streaks etc.
If the Oilers win the cup, even if each of Bouch/McDavid/Drai play and produce similarly to how they have so far through the cup, its hard to imagine them giving the Con Smyth to Bouch over either McDavid or Drai, even if deserved.
Stu Skinner’s sv% is positively regressing.
We’ll see it recover above .900 just like it did during the regular season.
I said yesterday that Dallas doesn’t have the significant advantage in goal that the critics think they do.
Is it “positive regression “ when we see apparent improvement after he hires his own goalie coach?
https://oilersnation.com/news/five-reasons-the-oilers-won-game-1
Thanks for that.
I was mistaken for both the role and timing. I had assumed that the hire was after losing the net last round.
Bouchard’s offence is really something to behold. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an Oiler D with the ability to hit the net from the point with such regularity. He had a lot of trouble in the past few years making the right decision about when to shoot, hammering it into the defending forward’s shin pads over and over again for a turnover, but he seems to be sorting that out as well.
Maybe it’s just PTSD from the years of Mironov, Niinimaa, and Souray who never seemed to hit the net. But it’s refreshing and creates so many more opportunities compared to when guys are continually firing it 5 feet wide.
It’s remarkable that Bouchard, whose superpower is his vision/passing, is also so impressive at hitting the net.
It’s like Leon Draisaitl, 3-time 50-goal scorer, being voted by his NHL peers as the best passer in the game.
Bouch like many a prospect took time to get used to the speed of the NHL. That’s all it was.
He got used to the speed of the defenders, the speed of his teammates, their passes all of that. There never should have been a doubt about how good he could be. Once he got up to speed in the OHL he dominated games, flat out dominated at both ends of the ice. It took him a few weeks in the AHL, but he mastered that to.
The NHL took a bit longer time wise but a big chunk of that was reps. After Barrie got traded think about how many more opportunities he had to fire the puck, take a pass, make a pass, walk the line, pinch etc.
This isn’t peak Bouch yet either. There’s another gear that he’s got and once he’s comfortable, and maybe if he gets more reps away from McD, he’ll start to carry the puck a bit more. Go watch clips of his from his Knights days and you’ll see why I’ve been so jacked about this player. He sees the ice incredibly well and has the skating ability and offensive instincts to get there. He’s a truly special talent.
He needed reps should of been 3rd pairing and developed starting there but Tippett wasn’t thinking development. He didn’t have a swagger until Coffey arrived and opened up his strong features. For me it’s on the defensive side that I’m most impressed with he boxes out players properly and he’s added physicality to his game which automatically brings him into the Norris conversation. Between Ekholm and Coffey mentioning him it’s no surprise for me anyhow how well he’s playing because going back to his London days he’s always had the talent.
Meh Oilers needed to make a choice on Bear/Jones and no coach in contender mode runs three rookies on the backend.
Oh ya that PPG he put up after the deadline last year, including 17 in 13 in the playoffs, and the ppg early this year were just nothingburgers until Coffey came along.
A big chunk of LT posters and the Oiler medi totally misread this player, discounted everything he did until the obvious slapped them in the face, kept harping about accountability when they wanted him pressboxed and now it’s a gaslight trip to make Coffey the savior.
Bouchard was always the goods. LT saw it early and anyone who followed his junior career coulda saw it. He just needed some time.
For years I’ve been begging for Bouchard to get more ice time but your forgetting how fragile Bouchard was earlier in the year under Woody and Manson who l loved as a player and Coach. Bouchard is a leader now he gives opposition players face washes he’s fist pumping everyone. Someone brought this kid out of his shell and I’m loving it.
Bouch is also a big trash talker on the ice – quite a few mic’d up clips have come out recently.
Did you really write that and forgot to mention the shin pad assassin?
Souray scored 23 goals in 2008-09 the most on the team during the dead puck era.
Not that I am disagreeing with the sentiment of the post, but Bobo had a higher shooting percentage than Bouch in the same number of games played, as did Janne. Just sayin…
Shots that miss the net don’t count as a shot on net and don’t hurt the shooting percentage.
Congratulations shout-out to Ryan McLeod for playing a great game last night.
First he showed up to play. and he got engaged all over the ice. He led that third line with help from Foegele and his energy.
The third line was not missing. It showed up and it contributed. Great job.
I’ve noticed McLeod finishing his checks and getting to the blue paint since game 6 of the Canucks series. Hopefully the offence follows!
I thought that line was going to get one. Foegele can go like a wind up monkey when he wants to. He’s challenged to finish when he’s going that fast.
I saw McLeod throw a body check last night.
At this point, McLeod and Foegele are double-agents.
Zeroes across the board while throwing out gift goals to the opponents.
Yeah I’m a little surprised at the level of praise here
Over the course of the last games, McLeod is 3rd on team forwards in hits credited at 5 on 5.
Yes, kudos to McLeod for a great game. We’ve seen glimmers (pun intended) of his game in the regular season but I was disappointed that he seemed to be avoiding the tough areas in the past two series. Anyway, not last night! He seemed to figure out better to hit than be hit. Brilliant, with many others, on the PK.
Also, I was strangely confident when McD took the 4 minute penalty that the team would rise to save the captain and then the captain would finish it. The script was set.
https://x.com/hockeystatcards/status/1793859079141503293
Stats tell a different story
As we discussed yesterday, the Stars are so aggressive defensively when the puck is behind the net it leaves all kinds of space available in the scoring areas… exactly what we saw in the 2OT goal last night.
More please!
While Dallas is surely not panicking. That game gave them a lot to think about. The oilers learned a lot throughout the last two series in how to clog the ice. Dallas needed luck and refs to make that game close
and as much as we talked about Dallas forward depth well their ice times looked very similar to ours
it is just a feeling or an impression, but I agree Stars are not panicked at all. Matter of fact I don’t think they even appreciate the edge they had in officiating.
I believe they are thinking they should have won that game hands down, they were just unlucky, and come back with exact same game plan.
Ego can sink you.
The 5fold pp advantage was definitely “deserved”
I actually don’t expect to see any Dallas adjustments
McCleod can certainly improve in the O zone, but his speed defending in the neutral zone was causing them fits. He’s causing some Russel Resets, and Dallas was looking frustrated.
I have a question for the group. Why do you think the Oilers continue to have ghastly peewee hockey turnovers in their own end that lead to easy goals? Like we never see other teams we are playing hand us those opportunities. Sure we get some in the Dzone or neutral zone that result in a 2-on-1 but usually more of a bad bounce than a gift.
These are plays where the Oiler just kind of hands the puck over for a point blank opportunity undefended, and it’s in the back of the net in one second. It’s really rare in the NHL, but seems to happen at a rate of 1-2 per game for the Oilers. Nerves? Skill? Coaching? Something else?
Foegele, Bouchard x 3, McLeod, Kulak. Is there something that can be done? I usually have answers to many hockey things, but I’m puzzled on this.
If it continues, I think it will impact the team’s ability to win this series.
Back to back games now with McLeod and Kulak transporting the puck between their own hashmarks when vapor lock kicks in, or there’s a bump in the ice, or their stick blade briefly crosses into the spirit realm and the puck passes through it as if it’s not there. I’ve got to just chalk those up to bad luck. These guys are NHL players, they are capable of skating 10 feet uncontested without losing the puck. I’m just going to pray that the dice DO have a memory and the Oilers have gotten all of those bizarre hiccups out of the way for the remainder of the playoffs.
I will say it is encouraging that the last 2 games have featured those bizarre gaffes + a 4 minute high sticking penalty a million miles from danger, and the Oilers have won both.
It is because the Oilers, led by captains, always, always want to “make a play” They dislike turning it over, dislike dumping it, dislike losing possession. Let’s call it their style.
It also leads to accepting high risk plays as the norm.
The top guns can do it, the lesser guns try it, less successfully.
Playing this way takes quick thinking, sometimes a fraction longer than just dumping the puck.
Add a touch of fatigue or an extra glance up ice looking for a man and all these things add up to the occasional gaffe.
Puck jumps the stick, fore checker catches you, stick whiffs on air….
Thats all I got.
Ultimately, if you have high octane offence, you have to accept the gaffes. They are connected.
It’s not just the Oilers.
Last night three players went behind the Stars net to get the puck, and RNH managed to win the board battle with one hand on his stick to set up the double OT winner for a wide open McDavid.
As LT says, single moments can take on great importance, but still just be single moments.
There does seem to be an ebb and flow to playoff games though.
Three fighting each other for the puck.
You could also take the glass as half-full perspective.
The Oilers screw up in their own end, often trying to make smart “possession plays”.
Things could be worse — screwing up trying to make the simple dump-out play.
I recall one year where Big Joe Thornton led the league in both giveaways and takeaways
This is koached. Bruce Curlock had an article about that 6 months ago on ON. The Koach likes the DZ breakout through the middle of the zone with a low supporting forward. Its a high risk play which leads to fast DZ exits for extended OZ time. Look for the clip “WP DZ Exit Example #3”. So, sometimes it fizzles, but everyone in the team knows that.
Contrary you see the off the glass and out plays from Dallas which come instantly back into the Dallas DZ.
The DZ breakouts through the middle with an activated weak side D won them Gm6 and Gm7 against the Canucks. ON
3-0 since Carrick joined the party 4th line looks great no worries with them out there against anyone. They are hustling for pucks like demons and I love it. Keep rolling those lines Kris a fresher McDavid and Leon is Cat’s Ass
Charlie Roumeliotis
Trade alert:
Blackhawks acquire No. 18 and No. 50 overall picks in the 2024 NHL Draft from the New York Islanders for picks No. 20, No. 54 and No. 61 overall.
It appears the Blackhawks are working on moving up in the draft.
I expect they will do more of this.
Seems like a lot to give up to move up two spots in the first round, and 4 spots in the second round, in what is supposed to be a pretty average draft.
I hope they keep doing more of this.
They must have identified a specific player they want to draft with their second 1st round pick and are trying to ensure they get him.
I wonder if its this guy?
http://www.mynhldraft.com/2024-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Michael-Hage
This does nothing to accomplish that. I get doing this on draft day when there’s someone you really want but are worried about another team trading up. At this point they just traded up for the sake of trading up. And a very expensive trade up at that
As I said, it’s possible they are not done yet.
Its even odder to do it now, at least to me.
I mean, the value gap between 18 and 20 is essentially nothing until teams know who will be left available and team could value 18 more depending in a specific target, right?
The Blackhawks have had a rough few years. I think Davidson did the early odd trade like this (never seen it before) to show Hawk Nation that they are still relevant and that they’re going to be proactive
— Not sure when “glimmer twins” became a thang but I kind of get a gut puke reaction when I read it.
— Because Gary Glitter (aka glimmer) I lived in London when that iconic figure was brought to justice. I’m sure it’s just me : anyway carry on.
— In Miami. A Florida Oiler Cup would be amazing and tickets accessible (great seats available for Rangers series online for 5 hund)
Its a Rolling Stones reference… Keith and Mick use it as a pseudonym.
IIR, it was also used here in reference to Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov in the 2000-oughts. Somewhat different tone there though.
— well there you go : 3 posters three different takes.
— I googled it. Hadn’t realized it was a term used for Keith and Mick.
— Maybe will help me with my gag reflex…
The use of his song in the Joker by Hollyweird was a sad thing to see.
— too much time on beach right now on phone googling stuff : just gorgeous down here, 2 night get away no kids maximize relaxing: Surf Club last night great 2 beer buzz an hour before we have to pack up.
— I wasn’t aware either of the “friendship” between mick and Keith (although I did read about Bowie and Mick..).
It’s in reference to Mick and Keef.
Did you hear about them while you were in London?
— Gary Glitter was incarcerated in the early 2000s : it was a big deal over there. One of those celebrity fall from grace that occurs seemingly much more now and public. A saga that went from Vietnam to him coming back to the UK. I didn’t know who he was until I moved over there.
— If you bothered to read the actual posts you would have seen the different takes posters had on the “glitter” reference.
— I would bet a lot that most people under 50 would not recognize that “glitter twins” is a reference or nod the stones. Thats what makes this blog and music references so cool.
It’s not “glitter” anything.
Jeebus.
Get a glimmer.
I have to agree kinger.
It makes me gag ad well. But maybe its just me.
I prefer Batman and Robin.
Nurse must lead the league in shots deflected off of him directly onto the stick of opponents with wide open nets.
…./60
He still might be but last night did not add to it. That was a Dadonov redirection that led to the 2nd Stars goal
Im not a sports scientist by any means and I understand fully that Skinner was full quality last night. Given the extra period I wonder about going to Pickard in Game 2. Get a fully rested Skinner for game 3 regardless. I also think rotating a couple in the bottom 6 is reasonable once Henrique returns. Carrick has faded a bit but wins draws. I dont see a major problem rotating the bottom 6.
Heiskanen is playing half the game (he can handle it). KK is doing a good job rolling the lines. McDavid only played 27 min which is what he was doing early in the series vs Vancouver.
Oilers played a great game. The teams are close.
They are but it’s because the Oilers are not taking teams out efficiently. They are crushing metrics most games but aren’t yet converting that onto the scoreboard, and are gifting goals and dangerous chances that keep the bad guys in it
To me it makes the games seem closer than they are in flow of play, they are usually outshooting teams even with score effects, sort of the opposite to Dallas’ series against the Avs
I’d love them to take the next step and take teams out before the end of the game, and keep them out. Time for some Power Wins. Kill the Stars’ belief
What was up with the camera angle last night? You couldn’t see any of the play along the boards across from the benches. Is it always like that in Dallas? I thought maybe the cameras on the other side of the ice were down. I haven’t watched much of the previous Dallas series to have noticed. It was annoying as hell to me.
From what I have read, the camera angle has always been like that but it’s especially bad now since fans are standing a lot more.
Game 1 is crucial for the home team in one game Oilers regain home ice. If the Oil win the next game they have Dallas by the balls. That’s why I asked who the Refs were early yesterday as I knew the ice would be tilted. Every Oiler penalty except Connor was ticky tack and could be called a 100 times in a game.
They’ve literally lost the last 7 game 1’s and have reached the conference finals in back to back years. They came back down 2-0 already this year.
It’s nice to win but I don’t think it means much in the grand scheme.
I think they had a a stat that the Oilers were 21-3 all-time when winning the first game nevermind on the road. The Oil home ice is a thing we have the best fans in the league and Dallas will be feeling the heat.
You think what happened decades ago has any bearing on today?
All I know is that I’m not betting against a 87.5% series win rate.
I think every win in the playoffs means alot in the grand scheme.
Its one of four needed victories and 3 of the next possible 6 games are at home where, despite what I heard about Dallas on the road, the Oilers are dominant.
Winning is important. Thanks as always OP.
This is how i saw it too.
Curious also.
Anyone see a team kicked out of faceoffs as much as our guys? Do our boys cheat on the draw that much???
How about face-off wins going to a redo bullshit this happened at least 3-4 times
Yeah that was frustrating. Even my wife, who normally only notices broken sticks on the ice, knew something was up.
Apologies for being off topic, but I feel like I’ll get some great answers/suggestions here.
Anyways, I’ll be visiting Edmonton June 19-26 and since I haven’t been there in almost a decade and knowing the city has changed drastically since I was last there(No Roger’s place, no ice district, etc, etc) I’m looking for suggestions as to what is must see/to do there now, regarding restaurants/outdoor festivities/shows etc.
I’ll be staying downtown, and am a brewer for a craft brewery here in North Carolina, so suggestions for taprooms/brewerys/bottle shops are of particular interest for me.
Thanks in advance!
There’s a bar/taproom called Craft that has like 100 taps. Good spot to try things.
The rules around craft breweries changed in Alberta in 2014 and the craft beer scene has been absolutely thriving ever since. There were 12 craft breweries before the change and there are over 170 in the province now.
Craft Beer Market is a great place to start searching out good Alberta beer. At Craft, I’d recommend trying something from Blindman (New England-Style Pale Ale), 88 (Wave Pool or Hammer Pants), Cabin (Supersaturation), and Fahr (Hefeweizen) because none of these are from Edmonton but they’re standouts in Alberta.
For some of Edmonton’s best craft breweries, I’d recommend 99th Street, between Whyte Ave and 60th Ave, dubbed Happy Beer Street, where there are currently nine microbreweries in close proximity. The furthest south is Sea Change, they makes a hazy pale ale called The Wolf that is, imo, perfect. They have also teamed up with the Joey Moss Memorial Fund to make the Joey Moss Man Crush Mandarin Ale. It’s a hit.
If you’re interested in something unusual Irrational Brewing Co. is a worthy stop. SYC also does a bunch of experimenting as well.
For distilleries, Strathcona Spirits. They love to experiment but if I were to recommend a bottle, it would be the Badland Seaberry Gin.
Whyte is the hub for great food. Baijiu is a hidden gem downtown that few people seem to know about.
Lastly, you spurred me to finally reset my password on here, so thank you for that.
Definitely 99 Street is a fun beer crawl
I’d second the recommendation of 99th street. Wonderful beer and food in the area. The pizza at Odd Company is killer. Also a couple of decent German restos on 99th if that’s your jam.
Downtown core is more “established,” and I think Jethro covered all the gooders in that spot. Campio is fun for a night out, sports bar vibe with a nice patio in the summer. If you’re looking for cocktails one evening I’ve had loads of fun at Baiju off 104 and 104.
The Bahn Mi sammies at Sea Change are also outstanding
Campio brewing is near Rogers. Unity Square has a Brewtster’s and a Beer Revolution. Syc Brewing. Sea Change, Blind Enthusiasm. Manchester Square has Arcadia Brewing. Lots to do and see. Beer Market is also pretty close.
Gotta hit Royal Pizza and the Mediterranean Chicken, or so I hear.
Depends where you’re staying downtown but 124 Street from Jasper northwards has a bunch of great places. If you’re more central and want Asian inspired cocktails and food, Fu’s Repair Shop on 105 St and Jasper.
River valley is very nice that time of year (SUP on the river) but you will encounter the unhouse population (well, pretty much everywhere downtown).
Hawrelak Park is unfortunately closed for major renos, probably for the next decade
Can I piggyback to ask which donair place is tops in town these days?
I hear Queen Donair in Jasper Place is still very good. It has been around for a long time, and a favorite of a friend of mine who was quite versed in the donair world. Across from the orange building.
If you’re willing to travel to Sherwood Park Famous Donairs is the best I’ve ever had.
I thought, although Oettinger played well overall his rebound control seemed to be a bit off. See if it continues in the series.
Friedman speculated prior to last night that Hintz may not play game 2 if the Stars won the first game but would be more likely to play if they lost
He doubled down on that this morning.
I think we can rest-assured that, when Hintz returns, he’ll be far from 100% (although, of course, so are Kane and McDavid and Drai for sure).
I’m not so sure Dallas is panicking just yet.
Conference finals, no one is 100%
Anyone know if the SAT and USAT stats on TheScore App are 5v5 or all situations?
What do they mean?
I’m guessing Shot ATtempts and Unblocked Shot ATtempts?
Solid first game. Team is looking and playing more and more like The Streakers. Perfect timing….
I think they played very well, but they sure do need to tighten up for those late-game mistakes that let teams back in after they dominate 55 minutes. At least they aren’t squandering entire periods anymore, but seriously. No one covering an entire side of the net? That was absolutely brutal and I hope they refocus to mitigate that as much as they can.
It deflected off Nurse’s skate directly over. Desh was covering shot and netfront. You’d like him to take a guy but that would be leaving the middle open and abandoning zone.
We got a deflection like that for Drai, hockey gods evened it out.
No it didn’t on the wide open net play. It was a deflection from a Dallas stick to the shooter.
You’re right it went off the blade before the skate. Astute deflection and a great play then, not a fluke.
If anything it makes the play even less brutal. A slapshot deflection to a guy on the side of the net? All world play.
Dadonov deflected it to Seguin, didn’t touch Nurse.
I watched many times and it was very hard to tell. Hell of a deflection if Dadonov did it intentionally.
Not sure if it was intentional or not but he did 100% deflect it over.
Vinny should have had Seguin. Nurse already had the front of the net/Dadanov. Vinny got caught puck watching as there was no one to cover where he was and a wide open Seguin directly behind him.
Question.
I read often of the goal share with “the glimmer twins” off.
Is it not normal for most teams bottom 6 to be negative? I mean if the entire lineup was hammering at positive goal share wouldn’t we be virtually sweeping the playoffs?
Im just wondering about context. Is the bottome 6 of nyr positive? Florida?
And if so, are their top 6 as strong?
Curious for my understanding and perspective. Is 4-9 for the bottom six terrible, bad, ok, or normal????
Probably negative or close to 0 is normal. When a team’s entire bottom six is in the positive range, you get a team like the 2022 Avalanche.
I figure that.
But what do the actual numbers look like?
This is rushed because I’m at work, tired but curious: (all numbers 5v5 via Natural Statrick)
New York has a more traditional break in top vs bottom:
Dallas has had injuries, so it is difficult to discern who is top 6 vs bottom 6. Seguin has assumed the 3C role, but was 3L before Hintz was hurt:
Florida has moved players up and down their lineup. Bennet, Reinhart, and Luostarinen have spent time as 3C and time up the lineup on the wing. Overall, they are 24-17 5v5 and the numbers seem to match like this, but you could do a deeper dive to be sure:
So the Oilers having a 4-9 bottom six is pretty bad. Tied for the most goals allowed, and by far the lowest GF of any of the surviving teams as of today.
Thanks for this.
Thats what i was curious about.
So they are between bad and awful haha
LT, this must be an incredible experience for you. How are you feeling about all this?
As you often say, the experience, the joy, the letdowns, it’s all part of the process of being a hockey fan. After all, with 32 teams in the league that leaves about a 3% chance for any one team to win the cup in a year.
The vast majority of fans won’t see their team hoist Lord Stanley’s cup in the spring.
First win in a conference final in 18 years! We have no idea where this is going to go, but man let’s just enjoy it for the time being. And maybe, just maybe, from this experience we’ll all learn things that can be applied to the journey of our lives. The good and the bad!
At the end of the day, the community that you’ve curated has created a lot of meaning in people’s lives. Thank you.
im 36 im feeling old now thinking back when i was 18 years old on whyte ave at the attic for game 6 SCF
I’m 46, feeling ancient thinking of the 2006 run, driving back and forth from Calgary to Edmonton to head to games. Leaving the office at 2pm as a 3rd year associate, drive to Edmonton, get face painted, attend game, sober up, drive back to Calgary – repeat on Thursday!
EDIT: Shit, I’m 47.
holy you travel man, are you going to be around edmonton for game 2 we should meet up at a bar and have the games faces painted up and have fun
Nope, won’t be able to make the trip at all in round 3. In addition to being just run off my feet busy at the office, the wife leaves for Europe for almost 3 weeks on Monday and I’m on dog duty.
I even turned down the firm’s Loge seats for client use.
Don Waddell out in Carolina.
Tulsky next?
Friedman speculating that Martin Necas will end up in Vancouver.
For what? They don’t have much to trade?
Sure they do.
Depends on what Carolina is looking for.
Demko
Astonishing, whoever might be looking for a GM should be on the horn yesterday.
As in Tulsky next as the GM? He’s stepping in as interim now and I would say it makes a heck of a lot of sense for Tulsky to be the guy full time.
Man Carolina are well setup.
It may be telling that Tulsky was not immediately appointed as GM.
I would imagine if he isn’t, he will leave the team.
It’s interesting that they have 14 free agents.
6 RFA
8 UFA
A real opportunity to retool the team.
The HH curse strikes again. Carolina went from Stanley Cup finalists to needing a retool.
Or a real opportunity to lose much of the roster depth that made them regular season demons, as all of those UFAs and RFAs will all want raises.
Retool back to bottom of the pacific
It was said in the same announcement that Tulsky was taking over as Interim General Manager. So yes.
Not much to say about the game last night, I see….
You need to watch a Joe Pavelski highlight pack because your deflection game is weaksauce….
Apparently Waddell interview with Columbus yesterday.
Rat leaving a sinking ship!
I would bet Dundon was behind the move.
Funny that the same Don Waddell, who looked unemployable after his stint in Atlanta, is now in demand after his run in Carolina.
Columbus must be desperate although there has been speculation that Ken Holland could end up there.
Anyone have any idea what the refs might have been looking at in regards to the GWG? It seemed more than just a routine OT goal check.
Anything to call it back
I heard Hyman offside by the commentators…
It was a potential high stick of the puck earlier by Hyman – not offside.
There was a distinct kicking motion somewhere in Dallas, so they had to make sure it was a legit Canadian hockey team victory
Sportsnet cut off the feed half way into OT1, and claimed the Final Score as 2-2. Unfortunately I had to just keep refreshing here to see what was going on. When watching the replay of the GWG, apparently any goal on OT is reviewed, similar to any goal in the final 2 minutes of a period? I’m not sure how often I’ve seen these apparent *Must Have* reviews actually applied, because they do still have to be triggered by the League requesting them.
They were checking to see if Hyman touched the puck with a high stick.
Itbwas if hyman had touched with a high stick as the puck game around the boards…
New rule – whenever a goal is scored with Hyman on the ice, it must be reviewed by Toronto. They spend most of the time lamenting how good he would still look in a Leafs jersey.
I thought I heard the announcers say all playoff OT goals are reviewed automatically.
I was glad to see the Oilers exploit a weakness in Dallas’ system and pressuring the puck
Lots of ice on the weak side and often middle. Bouch and Connor were listening to the coaches. Keep it rolling
The media folks were too busy gushing over the Stars to look critically at how they were playing. I watched a few games on Wednesday night and you could see two vulnerabilities clear as day. 1) Slow retrievals by the dmen, and 2) lots of flip or off the glass and out, not nearly as many controlled zone exits.
The flip out is designed to capitalize on their quick young forwards who can poke that center puck deep and get on the defense asap. That might work against some teams but you’re playing with fire doing that against the Oilers. A key to our offensive success is turning those pucks back as quickly as possible and coming in waves. By the middle of the 2nd our dmen had figured out the punt depth Dallas was trying to achieve and were cutting it off nice and quick like.
Stars will need to shift to something with more controlled zone exists if they don’t want to be hemmed in shift after shift.
Concerns:
1.) Drai has a broken or sprained finger and it’s getting him killed in the face-off dot (and will probably impact his play in other areas too). How long does something like that take to heal?
2.) 3 out of the last 4 games have had a major gaffe next to our net result in an easy goal for the opposing team. Hopefully that’s just a coincidence and not a real trend?
There is a pretty established body of analytics work that shows face-off winning percentage is only weakly correlated to actual goal differential and wins.
https://novacapsfans.com/2019/01/09/the-value-of-faceoff-winning-percentages-this-seasons-mystery-stat-for-the-washington-capitals-readers-poll/#:~:text=The%20report%20concluded%20that%20a,equivalent%20to%20two%20additional%20wins.
While my brain understands this, unfortunately, this knowledge doesn’t make my sphincter tighten up any less when we lose a draw in our own zone in a playoff game.
I thought the refs were awful last night. The Bouchard phantom slash call, DeBoer calling the high stick penalty on McDavid in OT, Tanev’s missed hook on McDavid’s hand on a glorious chance in close, etc.
That said, great road game! And Skinner didn’t blink in the goaltending showdown.
Question: Who comes out if Henrique returns?
Ryan, Brown, Carrick rotation … coaching staff will have a beat on who needs rest, who is nursing an injury etc. The coaching staff has had a really good handle on managing the bottom 6 forward rotation so far.
I think you have to keep ryan and carrick in unless drai can start winning more draws…
Only guys winning enough draws right now.
Side note. Oiler bias. Why do our guys get kicked out 5x as much as the opposition? Our biys cheat more on the draws???
If you aren’t cheating, you’re not trying. But those Dallas guys are squeaky clean.
100% this.
Ryan and Brown each played over 3 minutes on the PK and Carrick zero seconds – that’s determinative for me at this point.