The Oilers v Stars series settled in as expected on Saturday night, as both teams skated miles and searched everywhere for broken plays that would lead to a goal. There’s much fret over specific players and lines this morning, but for me this Edmonton team is doing pretty much everything well. Breakouts are precise, short and accurate passes all over the ice.
The two GA last night were the result of errors and missteps mostly from the department of youth (Dylan Holloway, Vincent Desharnais, maybe Stuart Skinner on the first goal) with a little bit of older gents not being big enough to do the chores (Derek Ryan). I don’t think any of those men should be taken to the woodshed, if you lose a game where the offense scores once, that’s called normal.
I was encouraged by the play of several wingers. The usual suspects (Zach Hyman, Mattias Janmark, Evander Kane has been rock solid this spring) were joined by a couple of surprises (Connor Brown, Warren Foegele) in a game where the wingers were playing fast as lightning and making quick and mostly good decisions.
I’ll include Dylan Holloway in the group, I’m just so damn impressed by his performance. I know he got caught in trail position on one goal but for me the young man has been a revelation.
Ryan McLeod serves as a timely reminder not to get too down on young players. They will try your patience but are also part of the reason the team has arrived at this place. Personally, I would consider moving him to the wing. Since the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman line is looking good (to my eye, anyway, they are 2-1 goals and 10-7 shots in the Dallas series) and the Kane-Draisaitl-Holloway trio (13-13 shots, 0-1 goals) are holding their own, maybe a third line with McLeod, Adam Henrique and Warren Foegele could have a turn. I would keep Janmark-Carrick-Brown together, the trio is 1-0 goals and 7-6 shots so far in the series versus the Stars.
Fans are mad at some of the defensemen last night, but I’m just so impressed with the breakouts and handling of pressure overall. Edmonton suppressed everything early Saturday night, but you know that won’t continue and the five-on-five goals are 4-4 through two games so it isn’t like we’re dealing with the 1974-75 Washington Capitals here.
The pairing numbers have tremendous gaps in this series and you know coach Kris Knoblauch will be looking closely at these totals.
The top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have played 45 minutes five-on-five. The goal share (1-0) and shots (22-18) against Dallas are solid. Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci have been on the ice for 28 minutes, 0-1 goals and 9-11 shots. Darnell Nurse and Vincent Desharnais have played 27 minutes, 0-2 goals and 11-12 shots.
Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid have been on the ice for 38 minutes five-on-five this series. They are 3-0 goals. Wow. Bouchard has played 14:39 away from 97, no goals but 10-7 shots. McDavid without Bouchard is 0-1 goals in 7:22, with a 25 percent shot share. Small samples, but keeping these fellows together is a fine idea.
Darnell Nurse is 1-0 with McDavid in five minutes during this series, 1-2 in 34 minutes without him. Draisaitl-Nurse have no goals in 13 minutes together and are 8-8 shots.
The series is turning out as expected, there are some pleasant surprises but the series is going to be a long one and there is no guarantee for these Oilers. I know you’re unhappy with the loss on Saturday, but the Oilers got a road split and are coming home 1-1.
If you want player or players fired into the sun, I will disagree with you. If you point to any playoff evidence, whether it is just the Dallas series or all of the games combined, I am going to remind you about sample sizes.
The one stat that does need some attention: Darnell Nurse is 8-16 goals during five-on-five play this spring. He has a 36 percent goal share and a 46 percent expected goal share. Regression may come, but not on time, and 46 percent is no screaming hell. It’s a total of 232 minutes, so that’s significant enough to consider being legit.
Without Nurse this playoff spring, Edmonton has a 63 percent goal share.
Cody Ceci has played 239 minutes and is 6-11 goals (35 percent) with a 36 percent expected goal share.
Brett Kulak is 57 percent goal share and 44 expected, Vincent Desharnais 31 goal share and 53 expected goal share.
Kris Knoblauch has a second- and third-pairing problem this morning.
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ current winger depth signals promising future
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5519149/2024/05/26/oilers-forward-winger-depth-future/
@IIHFHockey
Ryan Smyth – IIHF Hall Of Fame Induction
They called him “Captain Canada,” and for good reason. No one wore the captain’s letter for more games or more Men’s World Championships for Canada than Ryan Smyth, and no one played more WM games for Canada than Smyth.
Everybody states or admits that the Dallas Stars are a very good team.
Yet the same everybody’s complain when certain Oilers are struggling or not producing as they want them to.
Shouldn’t the expectation be more realistic?
It’s funny how many dissect the Oilers mistakes endlessly assuming the opponents never make mistakes. I’ve said before I wish these same people would analyze the opponents to see what there analytics would be
This is valid.
And i feel we oiler fans are verly critical. Maybe its because many (not i as i was in too young to appreciate the dynasty) experienced near perfection during the cups of gretzky and messier?
I always wonder if other fams ride their players as hard as we do? Every team has 3rd liners. Or bottom pair dmen that are imperfect.
I think to the last series. Petterson was absolute trash. Hughes? Pretty meh….. did the dys fans ride them as hard? Im genuinely curious.
Not to say anything erong with analyzing.
I love that. But curious if we get too critical at times?
I don’t get why this narrative keeps coming up. If you and Darryl and others don’t like a deeper discussion on hockey why do you comment on this blog, which has always been predicated on that exact thing? I have no idea why LT started talking about this here, I don’t see it, maybe on the radio it happens more
Thinking and having an opinion is not the same as not enjoying. There are a few wingnuts, not very many on Lowetide from what I read here
Not defending him one bit but is anyone else tired of reading how much Ceci sucks and doesn’t belong in the NHL?
Yes, I’m tired of it. And for those that might think that way, put it aside till summer, there is a cup run underway!
And Ceci is not going to the press box. Period. Full stop.
I haven’t read anyone saying that here
Yeah have not been impressed w Foegs.
Whats the opposite of “poise”?
Further to a comment below, Darnell Nurse with Warren Foegele so far:
TOI: 64min
GF: 0-8
XGF: 43.81%
PDO: .758
Darnell Nurse without Warren Foegele:
TOI: 167min
GF: 8-8
XGF: 47.28%
PDO: .999
Warren Foegele w/o Darnell Nurse:
TOI: 82min
GF: 2-3
XGF: 60.13%
PDO: .931
And with neither of them:
TOI: 389min
GF: 22-11
XGF: 52.2
PDO: 1.052
There is a lot of randomness in there, of course. Foegele and Nurse need an exorcist. (59% xgf but a .667 PDO so far this series when together!!!)
The team is phenomenal when neither are on the ice, and getting good luck to boot.
Holy hell
Trouba is a thug. Lowetide likes to defend his predatory hits. I wonder if he will defend this one?
If that was Nurse or Vinny it’s 5 and a game the Sportsnet panel would be calling it a predatory hit and Parros would give a 2 game suspension. Where is our media all Spector does is troll his own team. Leon gets N.F.L styled tackled or corkscrewed 2-3 times a game and he finally gets a call at garbage time. Kris and Connor needed help last night in the interviews by our media and and it was crickets as usual.
I love many of trouba’s hits. (I like contact hockey so appreciate heavy contact players like him)
He is probably the best hitter in the game. He is a great hockey player.
He committed a bad hit tonight.
Can all these be true? I believe so. Some may disagree.
Regardless of my opinion of a player they should be held to the same standard as anyone else. This i also believe to be true.
The flying elbow! My goodness!
— Man the Jays are in a world of hurt: they have one of the most expensive payrolls. Their most expensive player Springer benched hitting a buck 90. Vlaad merely good 1st baseman (although on a heater). Farm system very weak.
— I disliked the “Shatkins” hate over the years. I cant see what the organization does going forward though. No emerging stars. Bo very good and then just meh.
— The philosophy and composition of the roster just sub-optimal despite all the resources. Just a massive fail.
So you’re saying they’re in a slump? Because the kids were very good for a little bit.
It was a bummer the Oilers lost last night but man was it an excellent hockey game. That first period was something else. Apart from not finishing maybe one of the best periods of the season. Henrique in when he is ready is a good boost for the lineup. I’m certain we will continue to see an excellent coaching battle the rest of the way. Fun time to be a fan.
“Adam hopefully is ready for game 3 or 4” – Coach
I think that’s just words and he’s essentially a lock for tomorrow night.
It’s very strange watching McDavid play mortal hockey. He’s still one of the best players on the ice, but that game-breaker gear isn’t there right now. With the number of passes he’s making that are being easily intercepted I’m wondering is it a wrist injury? Is he experiencing concussion symptoms maybe from the Van series?
It’s a shame, you know it’s killing him that he’s not lifting the team on his shoulders like he normally does.
I think the passing thing with him and Leon is just old habits when they are trying to do the extra and above. They had been playing better puck protection mostly. Trying to pass through players especially more than one is not good, and the Stars have pretty good sticks
And as said they looked tired. The team was pretty disjointed after P1 and the cycle was not going as much, partly due to that. Maybe they didn’t have the energy to do it. Would like to see that end
His average shot speed was 7 mph slower this past regular season than the season before. Shoulder/wrist something has been bothering him all season. Probably he will see surgery of some sort in the off season. Don’t know if we will hear about that surgery or not.
His shot (volume and effectiveness) and handling of the puck have been off since the fall – I’ve been saying since 2023 that I think he’s dealing with a finger/hand/wrist issue.
I also think he has something effecting his mobility as well (likely started with the close to year end injury and hasn’t fully healed).
Hopefully we don’t get any information until the 3rd week of June.
The Oilers are essentially pot-committed to Ceci, as Holland and Knoblauch and the Oilers made no effort since the Vegas loss to pursue options or build optionality.
They bet the future of McDrai going all-in on Cody Ceci.
Yes, we heard you the first ten times
10???
What about Nurse?
He’s -10 in 14 games and has two apples?
Worse yet, the opposition has converted Nurse into their own net front player. He deflects pucks in off his skates or legs better than Zack Hyman.
How many own goals and helpers does he have?
Maybe it’s time to park Nurse in front of the other team’s net?
Except for the 1st round pick that the GM offered to Calgary for Tanev…..
On the positive side, Knobby did make a good adjustment getting a low forward to support the breakout, 2 options. While they committed to doing it Ceci was ok and even set up a goal play
It’s without enough help he and Des are in tough. And everyone else not on the top pair
If only Craig Conroy would have done business with us. Lindholm, Hanifin, or Tanev.
Would you have wanted to give up a 1st and 3rd, Kane and Akey for Lindholm?
Not sure a left shot/left side d-man in Hanifin would have been the ideal fit.
At the time of the trade, most people viewed Kuzmenko’s contract as having negative value. IMO, it was a cap dump. Do you disagree?
Tanev was traded to Dallas for a 4rth rounder. Conroy didn’t want to provide help.
Left shot, not ideal, no. Still Hanifin would be at least the second best left shot defenseman on the Oilers. He’s better than Nurse by a country mile. Providing even a massive upgraded on LD would have been better than not doing much to improve our d corps.
Hanifin?
Typo. Still I’m not sure Lindholm wouldn’t have been at least the second best left shot defensemen on the Oilers. Of course, that would have meant a trade with Boston.
Many would view Kane as a negative value contract.
A “reset” for him might be. Good thing.
Mcleod might need one too…
Henrique/Ryan/Perry, sit Foegele and Mcleod.
Nurse/Kulak
Broberg/Desh
Kulak/Ceci are being picked on by Dallas. Desh is really struggling with the puck, luckily for him Ceci is struggling with everything.
Foegele and or Ryan might be Ceci’ing McLeod. Don’t ask him to hit more than normal and let him take the ice away, let Henri and Perry do that and cycle
Hey georgexs. What are the numbers like? They must have some ugly ones with game 1 5×5 play and last nights period 1…
I swear we oiler fans are hyper critical…
Im reading that we “lost the cup” when we did x, y, or z…
As a few posters have pointed out… didnt realize it was over.
I get it. I was pretty gloomy after game 5 of the vancouver luckycharms series… but look where we are now?
I just try to remind muself, every team has off moments. Every team has their “ceci”… ian cole was a trainwreck for vancouver. Why didnt they “upgrade” at the deadline? Did he “lose them the cup?”
Not sure who dallas’ weak players are? Do they have zero? I bet many fans of theirs arent happy with the lack of production their top several guys have had in games 1-2.
All to say. Im trying to enjoy the ride and stay positive. We are 1-1 in conference finals!!!
I am very saddened that Draisaitl lost his point streak last night though….
I didn’t like them loading up McDrai in the 2nd and 3rd. It was unnecessary to me as it was 1-1 and we dominated the 1st.
It drains the 2nd line and didn’t look very effective to me.
Agreed
Dallas plays LaBamba after the game.
I hate smug. I hate cocky.
I want to see Oilers clean house on Dallas for the next three games.
You realize that Mexico borders Texas, and has a significant Mexican and Hispanic population.
And that’s why they played it, right? Sometimes things are exactly the way they seem…
It was a dick move, but perhaps they don’t know the significance, because it would be very callous if so. Enough that I want Mess to come out of retirement to change their minds
Dallas’ thing is to play the other team’s song when Dallas wins.
Has nothing to do with the Mexican and Hispanic population.
The DJ apologized for playing it, as he did not know the significance of the song to the Oilers and Oilers fans:
https://x.com/shippyspins/status/1794831627933421723?s=46&t=uOFk9owqJ9kE0z5pO3MsLw
Dang. Hard to get a good rivalry going with these apologies!
Yep. I said the same thing below. He has been a non-factor all playoffs.
Dallas is sure cherry picking when Ceci is on the ice.
DeBoer likes Benn, Johnston, and Stankoven against McDavid, but I think he has discovered last night that the BJS line against Ceci is like the Eichel line against Ceci.
If/when Hintz is back, I think we will see a steady does of BJS against Ceci, which is pretty easy to do since Knoblauch leans heavily toward the McDavid-Bouchard 5-man unit.
The pending return of Hintz will change things up significantly.
Johnston will bump down to 2C while Duchene will return to 3C
DeBoer will have the option of Seguin at RW on any of the top 3 lines and that could depend on if Pavelski gets going.
In G2 Dallas appeared to be putting a guy high in the dzone on Bouchard. A couple of times Bouchard even was outside the zone when Ekhom got the puck. Ekholm looked over and saw Bouch covered so went up the wall instead. Which is fine, or Oilers could bring a forward back high between the 2 D.
Bouch being outside the zone because there was a guy on him so high in the zone
Not just Bouchard.
In the final two periods DeBoer changed tactics and had a forward high pressuring a defenseman.
It led to numerous long breakout passes.
Way too much doom and gloom today! What happened to enjoying the ride? I’m sticking with my belief in this team.
Knoblauch has been seriously good with adjustments so far. Skinner is elevating his play. We had a pretty even number of chances on an off night from McDavid and in the first game Drai didn’t have a point. Holloway is full of pluck.
We have home ice advantage in the western conference finals! 28 teams didn’t make it this far. The times are very very good.
He makes too many mistakes for me, well documented
Hockey cliches I know, but they have to make certain of a few of those chances. It actually looked, by my eye, that they were expecting to be shut down a lot quicker like against LA or Vancouver. I think they have more time and space than they realize.
Yes I see the Oilers as better given current available players. The caveat always being giving up easy goals, and to me not getting enough quality chances set up in front, getting Oett moving
I don’t think the jam plays and guys being right on top of the goalie are that great of chances. Sometimes you get lucky. I don’t see luck as a strategy. When Seguin scored he had enough space to shoot it in and enough time to react, he wasn’t right at the post or right beside an Oiler
Even screening, if you are right on the goalie not much usually happens. A few feet out is better to deflect or get a rebound. At least one of the forwards. I guess I think they are often too close in or not around the net really in a scoring position
That camera angle behind/above OIlers net on the empty net goal was intersting – Bouchard starts drifting slightly toward the boards because you know…don’t want to be between the puck and his net (that he knows has no goalie in it) when the puck is shot. Not even a hand wave to try to stop it……uggh.
My buddies and I thought that at least two Oilers didn’t know that there wasn’t a goalie…
Absolutely dreadful line change by Nurse & Holloway, not to mention by Skinner who went to the bench before Oilers established anything resembling a cycle.
There were still 2 minutes left, unfortunately those 2 minutes became instant garbage time when Dallas accepted the gift.
Not quite as bad as that time Koskinen skated 90% of the way to the bench & then changed his mind causing a series-ending too many men penalty, but in that realm of flabbergasting incompetence.
It looked like Nuge didn’t know the net was empty.
TSN panel of Martin Biron and Jamie McLennan thought there was a miscommunication between KK and Skinner, going as far as saying that Skinner may have f’d up and went to the bench too soon. This is why it looked like so many Oilers didn’t know the net was empty.
McLeod is clearly a small boat tossing around on the sea right now. His confidence is shot and you can see him thinking through every play, defensive or offensive right now.
On the PK last night there was a play where he gets it stone alone off the right side of the net. He turns, he looks up, he skates two or three strides, nobody within 15 feet, and he flips and absolute muffin four feet from the boards that gets picked off and sets off a sequence of pain cause the dpairing wasn’t able to switch earlier on the play that got McLeod and Foegele out there. OP mentioned they got the most TOI on that PK, which is true, but it was cause of that ghastly turnover. He’s good for at least one of those a game going back to game 4 against Van.
I dare say the 3rd lines lack of offense is what’s bleeding over into the Ceci-Kulak pairings poor numbers a tad as well.
I could see swapping Henrique-McLeod at C-LW and giving Ryan a night off. That said Coach runs Ryan as his RH faceoff dude in crunch time when they’re protecting and I’m not sure he’d want to toss Henrique directly into that fire after such a layoff.
If you watch the OilDrop episode from Game 7, you’ll see he was totally despondent after that game. Both McD and Holland went over to chat with him after and he was damn near broken.
Id take him out just so he can take a breath. He’s fighting it hard right now. No need to shatter him. The team can handle him gone for a game.
I think you did a good job summarizing the struggles without piling on or dismissing him as a tweener like many have. Didn’t see the game 7 moment, but I’ve felt like he’s a good player having a crisis of confidence right now. I’m hopeful these playoffs will show him what he needs to work on and he comes back next year with another gear. Right now, it feels like he’s overwhelmed and just not processing the game fast enough.
To be honest, I am kind of getting the feeling he may almost need another season to put it all together. Unfortunately I don’t have a clue what to do with him in the meantime, so giving him a game or two off seems as good a road to go as any.
I love McLeod and have no interest in firing him into the sun. He’s frustrating though, cause he has all the tools to be a very very good NHL player. But damn the man if he doesn’t do anything, literally anything, in the offensive zone for games, weeks or months on end.
I truly believe it’s because he’s so focused on not getting burned on rushes back. We rarely talk about him getting caught down low, that’s a fact. But the cost is wide swoops and a near total unwillingness to get into the greasy areas. A darker read is that he’s just inept offensively, can’t read it, won’t do it, unwilling or unable to drive the puck. I don’t think that’s the case I think it’s learned behavior.
Someone mentioned last night another play where he was F1 and Tanev was going back into his corner. Tanev straight up fell over and lost the puck, but McLeod was swooping over to the far boards ready to put pressure on the outlet winger. It’s a fine read, but if he comes into that play ready to drive Tanev through the boards he would have turned that puck over and have been able to walk out front with it if he pressured. He needs to realize he has the speed to bail himself out if he gets low. He doesn’t need to cheat for defense because he has the wheels to get back. Once that lightbulb clicks on he could be a lot more effective.
Frustrating fella.
There were two players this year that I lost my patience on. Connor Brown is one, he’s a vet he can handle it, but that was a catastrophic whiff on the contract cost. And frankly I think part of that contract has Jackson on a shortish leash as well…
The other guy, and some days I feel bad about it, is Stu. When Stu is on he’s great, when he’s off he can be one of the worst in the league. When he starts to melt down you can see it too and nothing can stop it once that snowball starts rolling. Nobody is perfect and I lost my cool with Stu more than once this year. I’ve always been less forgiving with goalies and their quirks. He’s been very good the last four games.
Derek Ryan could use a rest for sure.
As for McLeod, I think it would be better to move him to the wing rather than sit him out.
Henrique isn’t a burner at the best of times, but with a bad ankle…
The bottom six is too slow to take out McLeod.
Extremely fast exciting hockey.
Oilers defended well, kept most shots to the outside. Breakout was excellent, forwards gained the zone consistently then were pinched by the Stars very mobile D.
Stars have the stretch pass breakout, Oilers are still adapting to it.
Game was decided only by a matter of inches, or bounces. Thus, what to change?
Oilers look the better team to me. Not many cards to play here.
Maybe Brobergs speed would be an advantage. Retrievals, high man danger, not physical opponent. Risky move.
We could use some deflections, bouncing pucks to go in – is that Perry’s role?
Third line needs help – definitely needs Henrique, easy decision.
More physically is needed, but it’s hard when the pace is so fast. Still, Nurse this is where you make a difference.
I would think speed is Oilers strength. But Avalanche are fast. I wonder if there was a team this year that Dallas struggled against and if it was a particular style.
Dallas strong on straight shots, thier d good at defending cross seam passes. The answer is likely crash the net. They don’t like it and don’t defend it well. Holloway is fearless. So is Hyman. Crash the net, create chaos.
I’m loving the 4th line Brown, Carrick and Janmark are giving the Stars fits. No way Kris breaks this line up. I trust them over any line and would give them ample ice time especially protecting a lead. Both Brown and Janmark seem to get fresh air busting down the wings. If our 3rd line had a pulse we would be up 2-0.
Unpopular opinion:
If a game off might have solid benefit on mcdavid’s ailments:
I’d rest him, if henrique is solid to go.
That open net he missed first game clearly had everything to do with whatever upper body issues he’s having. He was trying to contort his body around to lift that puck. You also see it in his puckhandling. He’s pushing it in front of him over controlling it with a million touches.
Yes he’s still valuable even if he he can’t lift a puck but man alive. Give him a game if it likeky helps. Give the team a chance to win hard without him. You need him closer to 100% to likely get through this series let alone win it all.
Yes, an extremely unpopular opinion.
Worst idea I’ve ever heard.
It had nothing to do with an injury, he was looking for a better shot and Tanev got his stick on the puck.
Oettinger didn’t make a great save, that was all Tanev and McDavid dusting off the puck.
McDavid actually looked better last night than he has the last 4 games. It’s coming. But resting him is what we used to call “smartest man in the room thinking” around here. Even at 80% he’s still dynamite…
The Stars are clearly focused on Bouchard.
Bouch did a great job of fake shots and walking the line and side stepping but the Stars had layers and blocked most of his shots.
I am far from a structures/systems guy but Knob is and Coffey knows how to gameplan. I’ve got to assume that they have a guy higher than most teams and there is likely a way that the Oilers will be able to exploit that in the next game.
I look for Bouchard to make that side-step and then, instead of the shot, a pass to the flank, almost like the PP – is that one way to exploit if they are cheating high?
To me it is. Opponents are going to try to limit the offensive players and that is based on their tendencies. So Bouch needs to fake them, but there has to be that option ready and in the right place at the right time. I feel that isn’t strong suit for the team, they often don’t support the puck and it leads to turnovers in every zone when they don’t
It also leads to when they have trouble getting good shots from net front, the guy behind the goal line doesn’t have good options, or there isn’t a 2 pass play out front. Curlock mentioned this a few times – too many point shots means they aren’t finding low down options and point shots are the lowest %, and that Dallas is always looking for their high forward F3 to set up. The Oilers play the same forecheck structure but aren’t as good at finding F3. I do think there will be adjustments especially at home
The same could be said when they are under pressure to score and everyone is looking for Leon – both teams. Dallas is higher pressure in their system and leaves the weak side open, and sometimes pretty middle slot ice, a lot, like Connor’s OT from Bouch. Fake to Leon and set up someone else, at least at times. Or if Connor is carrying if he was able to get shots off like last season, the goalie has to be wanting to cheat to Leon’s side
That’s the counter. Trying to just play through what Dallas is doing best will be hard if they are playing well
Yes we need some cross ice one-timers, touches are deflections like the McDavid goal. If they can get Oettinger moving side to side he can be had.
Hmmm…I dunno that he needs to change much. He beat his man which creates an odd man situation in theory but if the other guys “stay home” then you just take that bit of open ice and fire away. On that specific fake late Heiskenen kicked his foot out like Johnnie Bower…he’s not exactly shooting into shin pads.
Sure, fair but all I’m saying is that I presume the opposition focusing on Bouchard and not letting him blast away can be exploited – I’m not tactician but, well, there are those employed by the Oilers that are and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some “set plays” that take advantage of this next game.
I have a theory about Macleod’s unwillingness to finish a (any) check. He is perceived as a defensive specialist that is always on the “right” side of the puck.
Although he is often the first forward in on the forecheck due to his speed, I think that he believes that if he engages physically, it will cause him to be caught deep and out of defensive position. It is known that hitting, if done haphazardly, can and will take one out of position and possibly out of the play. His mindset is so skewed to the defensive side of the game, that he is afraid to engage physically lest he put himself out of position.
I think this is correct. What he does not recognize is that his lack of engagement or pressure is what results in the need for him to get back to cover.
Cool stat: thru 2 games in the Dallas series, 2 Oilers lead the way with 7 hits each: Evander Kane & Ryan McLeod.
McLeod has 15 hits over his last 6 games. Nothing memorable — clearly, it is not his game — but he has at least tried to ramp it up.
Maybe a coincidence but over that same run of games his defensive game has slipped, with identified mistakes on 3 GA.
Makes sense to me, if he flies by he’s heading to defend or after the puck. Might be better with the right wingers
Yes, I can see he is trying. He needs more help. He and Foegele had a good game 1. Perry wasn’t helping much. They could go McLeod / Foegele/ Holloway. At least pressure and hold the puck in the zone.
That may be part of it, but I just think the physical part of hockey is not in his DNA. Same with Bouchard. They really have to put the mental effort into being physical, including taking a hit. Nice to see McLeod throwing a few hits, but being physical, to me, includes taking the puck hard to the net, like McDavid or Holloway (or Anderson back in the day(.
My eyes tell me that McLeod is hitting and is making contact.
exit: Bruce posted some numbers.
For me I don’t need to see McLeod as a Centre running around throwing hits. Its his unwillingness to capitalize on his blazing speed driving to the net. Holloway gets it he’s a threat to score. If I was running the show I would be converting Holloway into a Centre next year.
I agree, we are not talking about throwing hits.
last night his man beats him out of the corner, gets a shot on net that rebounds of Skinner to the far corner. His man coasts to the front of the net.
McLeod actually leaves his man and goes behind the net , behind the net, to reach the far corner and help out.
Why are we talking about him? Because we need him.
Only other option is build a third line around Nuge, and bump McLeod up.
McLeod has an ever changing set of most flawed wingers who are on frigid streaks when he gets them.
any way you cut it. Going home while taking home ice away from Dallas is pretty fantastic
Not according to most posters on here today.
Much better than 0-2, less pressure, hopefully allows them to play their game and not force things as has been their tendency when behind. Dallas is way more likely to convert turnovers etc
This was the win Edmonton needed
The progression of Darnell Nurse
Hes a number 1 defenseman
well he’s a elite #2 defensemen
Hes a good number 2 defenseman
Well he’s a great #3 defensemen
he’s a number 3 defenseman and it’s all Cecil’s fault
Hes a second pairing defenseman.
what the heck we gonna do with this guy. Can’t trade him. Can’t buy him out. Probably need to pair him with Bouch next year to throw him a life preserver
Nurse needs to be physical to be effective but as soon as he does it the refs arm comes up. The sequin penalty was a joke sequin was laughing afterwords.
I think this has really affected his game. And others. The dubious and untimely calls while they watch constant uncalled muggings is not ideal
Tanev can hold and mug anyone he chooses without a call. He’s Sportsnet darling as well meanwhile Nurse has 10 years in this league yet he lacks the respect from the Refs. Nurse still gets all these tickty-tack bullshit Mickey Mouse calls that scrubs in the league get dinged with.
Huge double standard. And it absolutely affects their game, always has, and it’s obvious, they back off for the rest of the game.
Know who else gets this treatment? Kane. I’ll just leave that there. But If I lip-read Drai last night after the Kane call, he said something like ‘all night’ as in that’s been happening to them all night but no call.
Oilers are clearly the better hockey team, I don’t even think it’s close. Will they prevail in whatever the NHL is peddling? Remains to be seen. Their sharpest weapon has barely been allowed to make an appearance. I wish the reporter followed up KK’s PP answer about ‘having to work harder to earn PPs’ with ‘Do you think Dallas is working any harder to earn theirs’?
Nurse would be an elite shutdown defenseman if he had a competent partner.
He was developing when he played with Larsson. But since established, the Oilers have given him Bear (rookie and mobility challenged and small) Barrie (defensively and mobility challenged and small) Bouchard (rookie and defensively challenged) and Ceci (mobility challenged, puck-handling challenged, 3rd pair level defensive ability, and softish).
What are your thoughts on Desharnais?
I like him at #3RD. He has limitations but brings special skills and strengths that outweigh the limitations.
But one needs a stronger overall #2RD than Ceci to compensate for Bouchard’s and Desharnais’ limitations.
Agree with your evaluation of Ceci. He is a useful player, but not a perfect one.
I find myself hoping that Desharnais will evolve into something more that we are seeing though. Is it possible to go to bed and wake up with a mean streak? That might be helpful. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a man so big knock over so few people. His first pass is coming along though. Its not a live grenade anywhere near as often as it used to be.
Ceci is soft now? That’s a new one.
I don’t know Bruce, for a guy his size that isn’t a skill player, comparatively. He has been a lot more engaged in the playoffs yes. But no Radko
Beautiful (and subtle) Statler & Waldorf reference leadfarmer! My hat is off to you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpYEJx7PkWE
Maybe I have this wrong, and not really meant to pick on Draisiatl, or his line, because he’s a legend, but it seems to me that it is typically his line that is on the ice when we are hemmed in our zone and chasing the other team around. Thoughts?
Kane isn’t always a help and he gets the D more that have troubles recovering the puck and passing well
Bouch and Ek are by far the best passing D and get the puck quickly and move it well
Then why do you want to split them up?
So more than one pair has a chance to do it. Or use Bro or Stetch who are both better puck movers. Not a lot of mulligans available. Maybe it was just that game and the next ‘3’ will be better as they were for a bit
It correlates highly with Ceci being on the ice.
To quote the hilarious Shane Gillis with respect to shit talking his girlfriends exes…
”it’s not a good look. Women don’t respect it. Kind of makes me look like a bitch. But I like it.”
That’s me with Cody Ceci “I told you so’s”.
I said not upgrading Ceci would cost us a cup.
I know you’re all sick of hearing it. It’s not a good look. Other posters don’t respect it. But it makes me feel better so I’ll still do it:)
Go Oil!
I’m hoping that they still overcome it. They can but coaches are going to have to be sharp. It also brings too much luck into the equation for my liking, hopefully fortune smiles
So the Cup has been decided & Oilers lost? I must have slept in a little later than usual.
Sorry all, trying to bring a bit of levity to the whole “internet GM” thing where we scream I told you so into the void. The Comedian Gillis has a great bit I thought paralleled it well but it went over everyone’s heads so obviously not delivered well.
The Stars are playing Alex Petrovic.
No I do not think the Cup has been awarded nor do I think there will be any one person who “costs us the Cup”. We’ve got a shot.
Ceci scored the biggest goal of the year.
Like Yamamoto scored the biggest goal of the season last year. He was playing top six in Edmonton, and fourth line on a non-playoff Seattle team this year.
Shouldn’t you stick to yelling, “We are an ATTACKING team!”?
Pardon?
I’ve never really understood the “armchair GM” thing.
Some folks have opinions about things that could be improved, it’s a big part of winning. I think especially if they played much or coached
Some just like the ride and don’t care. My nature is to want to fix problems and to not waste being gifted Connor any longer. Perhaps being old enough to remember the 80’s teams makes that a stronger desire, knowing what is possible with an all time player, even in a 32 team league. Different strokes
Foegele had his best game of the playoffs last night but his two linemates both had tough games.
I know there are calls for Ryan McLeod to come out of the lineup but, for me, that’s not a realistic option – his speed is too valuable along with his PK. Its got to be Carrick or Ryan and, given impact last night, its got to be Ryan. That also allows them to leave that fourth line intact fully and slip Rico on to the 3rd line.
What good is McLeod’s speed if he doesn’t use it effectively? That play Holloway made last night driving the net McLeod could do 2-3 times a game if he was willing. I don’t understand why his speed is so valuable.
McLeod has shortcomings, but at present he brings more than the next guy. You gotta play what we got right now.
I might look at Ryan out. I like him but he always seems to launch really strong then fade. Plays better with a rest.
Because he gets back the neutral zone quickly and break up the other team’s transition well
He’s an exceptional back checker with absolutely no nose for offensive while playing C.
He’s like Marchant with less offensive
I guess that’s why his speed is valuable but that definitely doesn’t make his game valuable.
If he brought everything Marchant brought we wouldn’t be having this conversation I don’t think.
There is little doubt that McLeod doesn’t take advantage of his speed to take the puck towards the net nearly as much as he should (or at all, really) but that doesn’t negate its benefits in various other aspect of the game including on the back-track and transitioning the puck and getting on the forecheck quickly (and he HAS been more aggressive in that aspect in recent games, to my eye).
But in my opinion scoring is significantly more important than defending when you get that ice time. I understand how important defending is but if you never score you need to defend perfectly to come out even. Put him on the 4th line then for pk and defending certain situations.
He essentially is – he’s averaging less than a minute more than Carrick at 5 on 5 in this series. The 3rd and 4th lines having been getting very similar minutes.
That’s fair. I didn’t realize that
Overall a solid two road games in Dallas and, now, Coach gets to make some adjustments and can get more of the match-ups he wants as the Oilers can continue to be dominant on home ice as they’ve been since the coaching change.
I presume Henrique comes in for Ryan and tomorrow night is going to be awesome!
At the end of day we have a split if we take care of business at home we’re cooking with gasoline. I do like the idea of Henrique and Perry getting into game action as for who you take out that’s a Kris decision.
Overall, very happy with the split. Oilers needed to finish in the first period last night.
As WG pointed out below, Ceci remains an issue.
Henrique should be coming back for game three. The thing about him is he can be useful on any line from top to bottom. It will be interesting to see where he slots in. If they load up the top line, he may center the Nuge & Kane, he may also play LW with McDavid & Hyman,
he could center MacLeod & Foegele, or even play LW with MacLeod at center, he might even center Janmark & Brown. IMO though it’s Derek Ryan that needs some R&R. Who knows Corey Perry could re-emerge onto the scene rested and ready to rock & roll. He might slot in anywhere too, anywhere but that fourth line that is… This Oiler team is unreal. The sky is the limit.
Ceci pinched too late on the first goal against. If one is late, it is better not to pinch. The pinch ended up being late and too high along the wall. Holloway went to the spot where he should have been if Ceci had pinched on time. and deeper along the wall.
Nurse’s negative numbers are mostly because of Ceci, And a lot of it was in a couple of games against LA. Ceci’s evaporating stick, and a couple of off the skate goals.
The Ceci vulnerability was identified a long time ago, in the fall. It became evident against Vegas last year. Holland did nothing about it.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
There is no way Holland should have stuck with the Ceci status quo after Vegas last year.
The funny thing about Ceci is that his teammates like him and he’s Mr. Game seven.
They are all nice guys. I’d rather not get caved in a few areas all game and need a Mr Game 7
It’s good to know he’s there when the team needs him.
I’m not sure I’d be relying on Mr C to be the game 7 ace in the hole, if you’re being serious
They liked Tyson Barrie. Should the Oilers have NOT traded Tyson Barrie for Ekholm?
Are they? Nurse is minus 10. Ceci is minus 6.
I’m not buying this. If he was late it was milliseconds.
Holloway was in his spot with plenty of time, but he didn’t react properly. The play was going back to the middle and Holloway didn’t see this developing and ended up far too close to the board. He also didn’t move quick enough on Benn (who was breaking to the middle) and he missed knocking the puck down.
Kulak backed in way too far and gave Benn way too much time and space to pick the low corner. Skinner may have been slightly out of position.
Lots of Oiler mistakes plus a great pass to spring Benn and a heck of shot. If Ceci was late, it certainly shouldn’t have been the fatal blow you unsurprisingly make it out to be.
While watching a very dull Monaco Grand Prix this morning I was reading up on the history of the t-test.
The t-test being away to evaluate if the sample size is representative or not. Or as our host puts it ‘sample size alert’
Turns out this test was created by Guinness who used it as a quality control measure, but published it anonymously to not alert its competition.
What does this have to do with Hockey and the Lions Gate bridge, not much but I do think it makes Guinness the official beer of fancy stats. Cheers.
If I recall correctly, he signed the work that came up with this as “student”, which is why it’s called the student’s t-test today.
McLeod may be vulnurable to be scratched based on Short Handed Face offs:
vs DAL
SH FO taken – winning %
Ryan 8 – 75%
RNH 3 – 67%
Drai 3 – 100%
Brown 1 – 100%
McLeod hasn’t taken a SH FO vs DAL yet…..
Yikes. You might be right. I would prefer to sit Foegele.
80% on shorthanded faceoffs is both remarkable & entirely unsustainable,
Not for lack of trying. You’d have to ask a linesman why his record shows 0 attempts…
#tossedout
Here’s an interesting one.
Vs Dallas
McLeod with Ceci
7:43 min
0-0 goals
1.3% xGF (not a typo)
McLeod without Ceci
15:07 min
0-2 goals
69.5% xGF
Not excusing McLeod, he certainly needs to be better, but I saw that and thought I’d share it.
I’d like to see Henrique-McLeod-Perry for a game. DAL doesn’t play fast so Perry should be in most plays, and Henrique is fast enough for DAL.
Holland has put together a group that has a lot of one dimensional players
I’ve been commenting for a while that many folks underestimate how using a few D that struggle a lot with puck movement, mobility, pace and individual battles impacts the forwards offense
We’ll see the adjustments but I agree Bro and his more rounded skill set would be a boost, and that Perry and Henrique would add in this series. Perry knows how to play net front and that was lacking overall last game. It hasn’t been overly physical and that also helps Bro, his skating might create a problem for the Stars
Given Bouch has been floating everyone I also wonder if splitting him and Ek and spreading the talent around would also help. 3 pairs with a talented D. Seems like a lot of changes though for what we normally see from them
Since you are suggesting splitting up Ek and Bouchard, why not state what pairings you are suggesting and whether they have been successful?
When I get to a computer I might look
The thing is the change worked for a while, now it’s not. But continuing like this if it doesn’t change makes it difficult. Just a thought that having your 2 best D on one pair with the best forward might not be best against this team
Dallas is deeper than Kings or Canucks, and also have a weakness in their D group, so getting up ice quicker and more O zone time would be a good thing. Also being a less physical series using Bro who is a far more talented player than Ceci and Des could be a big help to the bottom 6
Without a deeper look the idea is to match skill sets better. The changes they have gone to didn’t work for long reg season, did for a while in playoffs. I’m not sure how well previous reg season results translate to playoffs, different animals
My initial thought is Nurse Bouch, Ekholm Des, Kulak Bro or Bro Kulak
Each pair can pass or transport and the one affecting the pairs negatively gets a rest. They often have been playing the pairs fairly evenly. I’d be surprised but it might be better. Also adding more skill to the D group might help counter when their best C comes back
Changing all 3 pairs is too much, and those are pairings that haven’t played together enough (Coffey has said defensemen need to know what their partner is going to do, before they do it). Consistent pairings is one way they got out of the early season oblivion spiral.
To me, Ceci out, Broberg in (in place). Hat tip Woodguy on the numbers.
I’m not sure Broberg or Stecher are going to be an improvement over Ceci at this point in the season.
I think people are projecting Stecher to be a lot better than he really is. And I don’t think plunking Broberg into the middle of a semi final series is a good idea. He hasn’t played a hockey game in 2 or 3 weeks and isn’t that assertive at the best of times. He strikes me as a player who needs to play for a month or more before he really gets comfortable.
Risk for sure. But many reports had him playing exceptionally before he came up. He is far more talented than who he might replace. We see despite a few mistakes how effective Holloway is
Not that the other players who might play instead wouldn’t make mistakes. To me this is the rub, if vets are having trouble go with higher ability. Dallas is up front, and they had issues Game 1, but they want the energy and offense more
For sure and there is little chance of much change at this point. Goes back to last summer and in season decisions
Dallas is out hitting the Oilers so far in the series, not only that, but Dallas is also winning more faceoffs. Oilers need to be more physical; I don’t see how Broberg makes them more physical or wins them more faceoffs. Either Oilers are afraid to take penalties, or they’re just showing the Stars too much respect. It’s time for the Oil to dominate physically and wear this deep Dallas team down. Let’s see how deep they truly are.
In my opinion, hits are a dumb metric to use in general. The reason Dallas is probably out hitting the oilers, is because the oilers are beating them in the possession battle. And not measure, the Oilers are waiting the CF percentage 56 to 43. The stars are hitting because they don’t have the puck on their stick.
Ceci isn’t that physical either. But if we look at Bouch, if you have more game you have the puck more, and being able to get that puck by whatever means and move it well has a ton of value to driving play up the ice, more than being physical and still getting hemmed in, or the puck coming straight back in, that is tiring and leads to breakdowns
Oilers got killed in the faceoffs in game 1 and won.
Oilers had the face-off edge in game 2 and lost.
I don’t think hitting is a priority with this coach. He continues to talk about defending with feet and sticks and whenever he’s asked about physical play he always qualifies it with some sort of statement regarding not taking oneself out of position.
I’m not so sure they should be splitting up Ek & Bouch. Oilers have actually been sound defensively so far in the playoffs.
I think the discussion is along the lines that there are some issues defensively they are overcoming and might be improved
Maybe the supergroup doesn’t work as well against a deeper team
I guess I’m optimistic with how the first two games have unfolded against Dallas.
The next two in Edmonton are going to be something else.
Henrique-McLeod-Perry would bring an interesting mix. Next game would be a nice spot to try it. Yes, Perry was behind vs. ‘Nucks, but last I checked they’re golfing. Against Dallas, I think his experience—especially net-front and cycle—could be useful.
The Oilers lost the game in the 1st period. You have to convert some of your chances when they come because you are not going to dominate a team like Dallas for 60 minutes.
Kane had at least 2 tap ins he failed to convert, and Hyman had one, before the Stars 2nd goal. If one of those goes in it’s a different game.
It’s always been the way. Don’t cash good chances and it’s pretty hard to win a game in an even series
If McDavid doesn’t score in double OT, it’s not only a different game, but it’s a different series. Woulda , shoulda, coulda.
To my eye the Oilers started looking tired mid-way through the 2nd period. I want to see Henrique replacing Ryan on the 3rd line.
I don’t think Perry adds anything so that’s a non-starter for me.
Perhaps Stecher in for Ceci or Vinny. Both struggle with making plays.
Stecher hasn’t been at practice for what feels like a couple weeks now.
No word on what the deal is but I presume he’s not an option.
Even if he was an option, I don’t see the coaching staff changing the six D short of injury.
Its tough to imagine the coaching staff taking Vinny out of their PK rotation.
I generally like McLeod, but the main issue that has always been his main issue, remains his main issue. A little too soft, a little too often. There was a play last night going into the Dallas right corner, McLeod was F1. The RD has a step on him and McLeod peels off, D falls down – puck sits there, D gets up – play comes out. IF that were almost any other F1 for the Oil they would NOT have peeled off in G2 of R3 of the SC playoffs and they would have either hit their check or been right on top of him to grab the loose puck when he fell over on his own. That play sort of epitomizes McLeod’s main issue for me. He needs a cup of nasty before the games, like right now.
Thing about McLeod’s issue was that it was identified before the draft, a primary reason he fell to the second round.
It will be interesting to see how Coach K adjusts. It would be really great if Henrique is good to go for Monday and help the 3rd line as per LT’s musings above. As per musings below – could Stetcher come in to replace Ceci? Is Stetcher hurt? If Oil lose game 3 with continued fancy stats pointing at Ceci (as per WG’s excellent summary below), maybe Bro gets thrown into the fire…hmmm
Just hoping they play a dominant 60 minutes on Monday and we don’t have to fret so much 🙂
Stecher hasn’t been at practice for what feels like a couple weeks now. No word on what the deal is but I presume he’s not an option.
Even if he was an option, I don’t see the coaching staff changing the six D short of injury
I’m not overly disappointed other than the loss. I think we played well enough to win just couldn’t score.
This will be unpopular but I don’t see anything McLeod brings other than PK. Skates like the wind but plays the whole game on the perimeter. Never goes to the net hard always the easy way behind the net. Still makes horrible giveaways in his own end. 14 games played on a regular shift and zero points. That’s not close to acceptable. I’d rather see Gagne play at least he’s a threat to score.
I am very happy with a 1-1 split coming out of Dallas.
Home ice advantage is now ours. Knoblauch can now dictate matchups. We have Henrique waiting to come in. Connor Brown has been excellent (and I confess, I have been a critic of his in the past). As LT said, I think the D are doing a good job, breakouts better. Dallas is a good team but to me appear beatable.
I think Seguin made a big mistake diving on that roughing minor to Nurse. What did Friedman say earlier this playoff? Officials hate being embarrassed. What Seguin did was penny-wise and pound foolish. There will be payback, and hopefully the Oil capitalize.