These are the playoff numbers from spring 2017. Connor McDavid had five points in eight games, none of them at five-on-five. Edmonton scored 9-8 goals five-on-five through the entire spring of 2017, and were 12-16 goals without him.
In 15 games this spring, he is 4-21-25, 3-10-13 at five-on-five. In this series, McDavid is 5-3 goals, the team is 2-5 without him.
The question isn’t will McDavid win Stanley, the question is will he win it here? If we look at McDavid’s with and without numbers in his playoff springs, we get a good idea about how much progress has been made over this decade.
- 2016-17: 53 pct ON; 42 pct OFF
- 2019-20: 44 pct ON; 44 pct OFF
- 2020-21: 50 pct ON; 29 pct OFF
- 2021-22: 65 pct ON; 37 pct OFF
- 2022-23: 53 pct ON; 45 pct OFF
- 2023-24: 61 pct ON; 48 pct OFF
Lots of anger about McDavid’s line in the second period, giving back the goals scored in the first frame. One person tweeted to me “his signature game? An elimination game? Awesome you think he’ll finally turn it on then” and I am struck by just how spoiled this fan base can be at times.
I know you are frustrated. The Oilers lost a game that was there for them. However, criticizing McDavid, as the evidence above clearly shows, is like ripping Michelangelo a new one because he took too many bathroom breaks while sculpting David. Respectfully, I think that being critical of the captain this morning is nonsense.
There was plenty wrong last night, with the second period at the top of the list. I think the key moment for me was Stuart Skinner not holding the post on the fourth goal, but would also point to Darnell Nurse taking a penalty at a key moment plus he didn’t make the net drive difficult on the winning goal, McDavid lost Robertson in coverage on the second Dallas goal, Vincent Desharnais gave the puck away and on it goes.
A few things to close: Dallas is a fine team capable of winning this series. Edmonton spent long stretches not testing the goalie again last night, and seemed content to nurse a lead again. That’s unwise.
I think Kris Knoblauch has a decision to make on the second and third pairings. I imagine he’ll bring Nurse-Ceci and Kulak-Desharnais back in, but maybe he gets creative and runs Nurse with Troy Stecher. I see folks suggesting Philip Broberg, but that’s extremely unfair to the player. The organization faded him from sunup to sunset, and then expects the young blue to save the day? Come on. The Oilers didn’t play Broberg’s season correctly even one day of this season, and if they ask him to save them now I for one will absolutely hammer the organization for it. Every. Damn. One. Of. Them. Absolutely shameful handling of a fine young player if this comes to pass.
Lowdown hits the air at noon today, Sports 1440. This is the time in the Vancouver series where Kris Knoblauch made some adjustments, we’ll talk to Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic about some of the possibilities on today’s show. We’ll also talk NBA playoffs, Jays and Elks. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
I didn’t like what I saw in the most recent Nurse interview/scrum. The way he acted tells me he doesn’t agree with the writers opinion. He could of come out and took ownership of his bad play, then vowed to be better. Instead he immaturly acts like he’s a victim or scapegoat.
The truth is Nurse was over rated and his points over Inflated due to playing with Mcdavid most the time. Now apart we see the truth.
We have a right to be pissed. If you’re going to ask for 9+ million knowing full well the Oilers had no choice at the time. You better darn well live up to it. Unfortunately for Darnell the Oiler fans know exactly what the implications are of having such a high cap hit being wasted. So it’s impossible to hide it here. At least take some freaking responsibility!
Oops, wrong thread
Allan. I sent you an email about tickets for tomorrow’s game. Take a look and drop me a line.
Edmonton has been resilient all year. I expect an Excellent Effort from them tomorrow night.
2-2 going back to Dallas 🙂
Thats the spirit
Not sure if you intended but that line brings me right to Roy Batty’s line in Blade Runner, after he gets walloped by Deckard a couple of times with a metal pipe…awesome sequence.
No surprise.
Don Waddell announced as new POHO and GM in Columbus.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5524719/2024/05/28/don-waddell-blue-jackets-general-manager/
Where does that leave Kenny?
The hind banana.
People with the downvotes don’t understand the gravitas of the situation.
If Holland ain’t going to Columbus, there’s a chance he’s staying put.
Do we know what led to Waddell being cast out in Carolina?
Owner Dundon being frugal
I think what many are finding frustrating and commenting about is that this and the last series are close. Some are saying the teams are/were good, it’s a tough league etc which is all true
The thing is they shouldn’t be that close. The underlying numbers say that. When they manage to pull it all together it isn’t close, they just can’t maintain it. The Oilers have a big advantage in McDavid that other teams don’t have. What is stopping them from really taking it to the other guys are the same issues well discussed, but not dealt with, or being seen as an issue. There are a few weak links really hurting the results. It affects the group in many ways. Giving away the Connor advantage which is huge
If they had been shored up and all things the same, they would have taken Vancouver out and Dallas pretty cleanly. They have had so many leads etc. I don’t blame the players even if I have thoughts about them, and I think that they are all fully committed, just some aren’t up to the task at hand. The coaches can only use the players provided, and aren’t on the ice
The coach in me wonders two things where we’re struggling winning key face offs.
1. On the PP why not lineup more safely to protect against the west rim clear? So for cajole, have Bouchard shade to the middle on a left side draw so he can protect the right point.
2. On the empty net o zone face off why not start with the 6th man at the other blue line to protect against the game ending faceoff loss?
Such tiny gains by going all in on these plays and a tremendous downside especially on the empty netter.
When Nurse signed his current contract, we were told the team’s leadership group were consulted and their approval of same weighed into the decision.
I wonder if Connor and Leon are having some buyer’s remorse now?
That is one pricey boat anchor. I’ve heard of ‘floating all boats’ but it takes real effort to ‘sink all boats.’
I’m not a fan of players having too much involvement with that. They are almost always going to be loyal to a fault, and isn’t necessarily best for the team or them. Signing players too high is not good for the player either other than the bank account, it weakens the group by cap and can bring a lot of negative pressure
I think you may be remembering conversations about performance or locker room value. It would be very unlikely that a teams core players are consulted on contract dollars of another team member.
3 season prior to the contract. (Includes “All-Canadian Covid league”)
Nurse with McDavid. 1830 min. GF%=53.8; xGF%=50.1
McDavid without Nurse 1525 min. GF%=51.6; xfg%=51.4
Nurse without McDavid. 2254 min. gf%= 44.5; XGF% 46.97%
Sid
@NHL_Sid
·
17h
He has to be injured, right?
I know it’s all the rage to shit on Nurse but he has never been this bad.
Honestly, I think the NHL is so bush league not allowing for contracts to be bought out. In the NFL and NBA, contracts are not guaranteed and buyouts are possible.
In pretty much every other walk of life, you’d lose your job or be asked to go on disability if your performance had fallen off as much as Nurse’s has.
I don’t think Nurse is seriously injured (any more so than any other player is at this time of year). He has sucked all year long; he hasn’t been able to carry his D pairing for a while now.
We’ve been talking about the need to get him a RHD partner since last playoffs, but the guy is the 8th highest paid D-man in the league … at that salary, he should be able to make minor leaguers look competent. Yet he can’t even handle 2nd pairing minutes sheltered behind Ekholm-Bouchard. He can’t piss a drop on offence. Can’t hold the fort on defence.
He sucks, he has for a while now, and his contract is just a massive anvil.
Allowing contracts to be bought out without cap penalty is a huge disadvantage to teams who cannot afford to just buyout players willy nilly. It is a protection device. Edmonton fans, of all people, should appreciate the cap, and the equity it brings.
You might want to recheck your homework on that one.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193736/revenue-of-national-hockey-league-teams-in-2010/
The Oilers are actually tied with the Leafs for having the highest revenue in the league.
Gaining an appreciation of the value of the cap didnt happen in 2010, or in the 20s. It happened in the 90s, it happened in the early 00s, and it got a big giant exclamation point in 2006. I don’t need to check my homework, thank you very much, I lived through the EIG times. We know what it feels like to be a have not. And thats why I appreciate the cap.
100% agree. All the onus is upon management to be able to see into the future.
One mistake can cripple a franchise for a decade.
Players, on the other hand, just need to 1) sign the contract 2) show up to training camp relatively in shape. Most cannot be demoted. A good percentage can only be traded if they want to go. And they get to decide where.
I’d like to see some type of system where performance markers are agreed upon when a contract is signed. If a player fails to achieve a minimum standard, owners can re-negotiate the contract, perhaps even termination. If the upper maximum is exceeded, the player has a right to re-negotiate his contract, and THEN have earned no-trade clauses kick in.
Lots of holes to fill, but you get the gist.
I like this idea, maybe just need to change max contracts to 4 or 5 years. Works for both camps from a performance perspective
There are a few factors.
In his prime, Nurse’s numbers were fueled by playing heavy minutes with 97. His toi percentage with 97 has dropped markedly.
I mentioned yesterday the possibility of struggles switching to zone d. Nurse was never positional sound. He loved man-to-man d zone coverage and using his speed to chase the puck carrier all around the d zone.
Now, he’s often in the wrong spot. That’s not injury related. Curlock detailed a number of key positional mistakes he’s made. He could be struggling to adaptations in systems.
Injury could be a factor, but likely more than just that.
You would think that the 8th highest paid D-man in the league could learn to evolve in such a way that he is able to play a more positionally sound, defensively responsible game.
He got paid, riding a heater during the pandemic, fuelled by playing ++ cherry minutes with McDavid … and as a result of the entire fanbase being so insecure about losing a “core” player, that his agent was able to hold Holland over a barrel and extract a ridiculous sum that is buyout proof.
All the tools … no toolbox. He has the worst contract and the best agent in the league.
Cambell’s contract is worse. Maybe we need to play Nurse with McDavid more and let Drai work with the top pair
Thinking about this, everyone of the players has played zone D at some point, it’s not some new thing. Most have probably played every system out there
Yeah, but Nurse is a tall guy with a long reach and quick feet. If he’s allowed to chase the puck carrier all around the d-zone, he can be highly effective in that role.
He was never great at boxing out payers which I could never figure out why given that he’s big and strong…other than he has a hard time not taking penalties when he’s doing so. He also is prone to puck watching.
If he’s tasked with playing zone d, it relies on playing a more complicated system that involves making quick decisions and reads when he was never good at at. He also has to fight his inclination to play Timbits hockey and chase the puck carrier all over the d zone.
Mr Curlock making great points, again.
https://oilersnation.com/news/oilersnation-everyday-oilers-let-game-3-slip-through-their-fingers
If you meant Bruce Curlock’s excellent Game 3 breakdown, it’s here: https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-vs-dallas-stars-game-3-a-tactical-review
He’s been killing it this post season.
The thing is, everything he’s pointed out from last night’s game is fixable. Time to see them put it in place for the game tomorrow.
The Oilers are good at possessing the puck in the Ozone and part of what makes them good is when they win a battle downlow with two men they reverse it around the boards and either have the net front forward or the D pinch down to keep possession. Dallas has this read and their D man is getting to it first and the forward on the opposite side, as Curlock pointed out, is leaving the zone as soon as it happens. If Dallas wins the puck on the opposite side they flip it out and have cleared the zone and have a breakaway, a one on one, two on one or two on two. The other thing the winger flying the zone does is kill the D to D pass the Oilers are so good at. This will likely require an adjustment on their cycle game… even though the first two goals came off of it. Can no longer blindly rim the puck in the O zone to the other side or the net front forward has to beat the Dman to the corner.
They should be trying to make plays out front. I think Dallas does a better job of doing that. Just blindly knocking it back and forth and waiting for something to open may work reg season but it doesn’t now. Bcs they struggle to keep pressure on and get goals 5v5
They shouldn’t struggle like this with their players
Broberg in for Darnell would pretty much be the accountability level of an anvil on the entire team. No way they do it, but what if. What if merit matters more.
Ceci is the biggest problem. Broberg for Ceci.
Depends on health. It would be nice if they have a hurt guy playing poorly being replaced by a healthy player
How do you explain Nurse’s poor numbers when he’s not playing with Ceci?
Vinny is not top 4 on a contending team either. And the Oilers middle and depth forwards are defensively suspect, OR offensively challenged, which makes non-McDavid time defensively suspect OR offensively challenged, which leads to sub 50% GF results against contending teams.
i.e. roster is good enough for the regular season, but increasing suspect the closer they get to the cup.
Just because Nurse also has poor numbers when he is not playing with Ceci, does not mean Ceci is also struggling to keep up. It just means they both are. From what I have seen posted, number wise, Ceci seems to be struggling more. However he is RD. Really too bad we don’t have cover for RD.
I didn’t state that Ceci doesn’t struggle. I’m challenging the “it’s everyone else’s fault” defense of Nurse.
Well a big part of the story that nobody wants to engage with or connect the dots with is the Oilers lack of 5v5 scoring outside of the Top Line.
When you’re being tasked with the defensive matchups and your linemates don’t piss a drop of offense and aren’t able to hold any amount of zone time you’re defending a lot and everything against looks a lot worse.
Draisaitl is a -3 the last two games. Not sure all that is on Nurse is it?
Same with Vinny. Vinny was at fault on the 3rd ystd, Vinny, Ryan and McLeod had a tough time against Marchment in Game 2, Vinny set off the sequence of pain for the Seguin tying goal in game 1.
Alas it’s way easier to grab the summary stats and tee off instead of doing a bit of digging. Thats hard and most people won’t listen once you do it cause they have blinders and they see Red whenever Darnell touches the ice.
Edmonton’s sports media can be very hackey at times. They were hacks earlier in the year when they wanted Bouchard pressboxed and they are being hacks with Nurse today.
Dig deeper and you’ll find answers.
Based on the responses the conclusion is that the Oilers suck other than McDavid. Don’t the standings and team statistics prove otherwise?
Regular season and playoff splits have different answers.
1) if you rewind to say early March there are a series of LT posts about the struggles of Ceci. Those posts go into detail about how the Ceci/Nurse pairing alongside their forward teammates were tasked largely with playing Elite Comp and were doing not great in the role. Not putrid, ran somewhere in the 44-48% xGF range but not great. A few of us cross referenced those numbers with the struggles of Draisaitl to score away from McD, in the second half that included Kane’s 20 goal scoreless streak, Nuges 11 and 10 game scoreless streaks, Janmark and Ryan’s scoring woes, McLeod’s 5 goals since Jan 1 and it took Brown until mid March to find any offense. Foegele scored ok.
2) In the playoffs yes it’s been worse. Edmontons 5v5 scoring dropped pretty badly after Game 3 against L.A. and it’s been very streaky if non existent for a lot of players. In 15 playoff games at 5v5 – McLeod, Foegele, Ryan, Perry and Carrick have no goals. Janmark, Kulak and Brown have one goal and Holloway and Ceci have two away from the top six. Seven goals in 15 games from the bottom six isn’t great production at all. Zero goals from the 3rd line until last night is bad. In top of that many nights saw the 2nd maybe score a goal but get caved in the flow of play. One and done scoring if at all, low ozone time, low cycle time, low shot generation time.
3) Defensemen are reliant on their linemates for a lot of stats. It’s what makes tracking them so hard. Few players are like Bouchard, Hughes or say Makar on the backend. A lot of dmen get their xGF from strong forward play
or from strong partner play. Nurse has been tasked with carrying less than ideal
partners. Ceci was well studied back in March. He’s a drag and it’s known. Vinny is a 3rd pairing dman who can be called on in select situations but he’s been having trouble with the full time role as well.
And I wouldn’t say that anyone sucks or is horrible. The story is more complicated than that and it’s why one or two of us are saying the Nurse criticism is indeed over the top. His role is complicated on this team. He’s being asked to do a lot and getting very little support in doing that. He’s not perfect no, not saying that, sometimes his gap control should be better, but neither is he responsible for every GA he’s on the ice for and he’s not always responsible for the lack of offensive output from his line.
It’s also a chicken and egg thing. When the D are not playing well it affects forwards, which is why Bouch zooms everyone. His ability to move the puck at the right time and accurately gives those forwards a huge boost
And forwards not doing enough puts pressure on D. Size is great, but I wouldn’t have any player that wasn’t a competent skater and passer, you have to have that in the league now, without a compelling reason. Waiver champion Forsling isn’t considered an offensive D and he’s undersized, but he can skate and move the puck and seems smart, it’s a big thing
I know you’re mad at Nurse, but this would punish Broberg more than Nurse lol.
Zero chance I agree. And its wrong.
That should be the play, if not now then next season. Retain 3-4 M on Nurse. Oilers just need another Kulak, which is Broberg’s minimal projection.
Ouch.
Ken Henderson
@krusty027
https://x.com/krusty027/status/1794559195204710834
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Knoblauch says he is also considering a change to his defense lineup for Game 4. He didn’t reference him by name, but Philip Broberg is a possibility to enter the lineup.
Oilers six defensemen have played all 15 playoff games so far. They’ve only tinkered with pairs so far.
Jonathan Willis
@JonathanWillis
Oilers defence, ranked by xGF% at 5v5 in these playoffs, with actual goal% in brackets:
– Bouchard 61% (70%)
– Ekholm 57% (63%)
– Desharnais 52% (29%)
– Kulak 45% (60%)
– Nurse 45% (31%)
– Ceci 36% (33%)
The *only* choice here is Ceci. Which probably means it’ll be Desharnais.
Knoblauch left open the door, but it was a very weak consideration, and a very low probability of making a defensive change.
His wording was interesting. Said they were very confident in Broberg but that it would be tough to make a change because they’ve played the same six guys all year.
I’m not really sure how much rope Nurse/Ceci/Desharnais need to be given. At some point, you’re just being stubborn. Desharnais xGF is good, at least (although to my eye he has been directly culpable for several GA this series).
Right now I’d say my preferred order of scratching is Ceci, Nurse, then Desharnais.
My only question is: can Broberg play RD?
Indeed, that has been the question of the last 2 years
Philip Broberg enters the chat.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
This is true but that statement was in response to a specific question about potentially changing the D and speaking to having confidence in Broberg but Knob was also quite express that they used the same 6 D all season – the D that got them there. I don’t think he’s making a change.
So I’ve concluded after reading the some blogs today is 1- Godot is the bad play ombudsman. 2- Nurse has overtaken Ceci as the worst defenceman in the league. 3- Broberg can’t be inserted into the lineup because it’s not fair to him. 4- Holland went from a 4th to a 7th for Stetcher and he should probably be fired now that he’s hurt.
5-Skinner saved our season as is fine these playoffs.
Did I miss anything?
I don’t want to speak for LT, so this may be wrong. But, I *think* he’s saying that the refusal of the team to rotate him in during the season means that Broberg cannot possibly be up to speed for round 3 of the playoffs. And that means he’d get eaten alive, and there would be an extreme blowback, and THAT is what isn’t fair to the player.
Remember Holloway coming into the dance last year? It’s just not a recipe for success.
He played a couple games at the end of the season after dominating in the AHL for a year and has 80 or do games of NHL experience including last years playoffs. That is significantly more than Holloway had. If that doesn’t make him ready he literally never will be.
You forgot:
McDavid has at least one injury
Drai has at least one significant injury
Nurse has at least one significant injury
Ek has an injury.
I forgot? What’s that got to do with my post?
Why did you ask if you “missed anything” if you’re going to defensive to responses?
Shit. Haha. I missed that. Sorry bout that. My error
To my eye, Nurse has not looked good at all. He seems flat-footed a lot of the time and his passing is poor. I wonder if that shot he took in the lower back/derriere in Game 3 is an issue? He does not seem confident out there for some reason.
It boggles the mind why they were so reluctant to give Broberg reps at the end of the season. He is a big boy with skating ability and accurate passing. He sounds like just what they need right now. If you are trying to win the Cup rather than trying to save face, maybe Broberg does need to be inserted into the line-up. I don’t think he would be worse than Nurse or Ceci.
Macleod needs to be reinserted into the line-up. Speed is important. If Henrique is healthy, keep him in and remove Carrick.
Look at the drop off in Kulak’s play once Ceci was given to him.
More than one of these guys is underperforming.
Ok, but somehow Kulak had a good game with Ceci and Desharnais last night. Nurse didn’t with either one.
Carrick is helping, I’d take out Foegele who’s getting his ass fashioned into a hat. He makes a few or one good play a game, but that isn’t enough. Were at the point when the biggest strugglers need a seat, everyone has been given a fair go
I like Foegele’s energy on the forecheck. He often has the bees buzzing around him, but his energy is helpful.
Did anyone ever consider that Dallas is a fine team, and has the potential to, and could very well win this series? This is a brutal league. 32 teams. The world, the NHL, the hockey gods… No one owes the Oilers a goddamn thing. The Oilers are not destined to win the Stanley Cup, it is not preordained.
That’s your story, our story. However, 31 teams have a little something different to say about that.
There’s a reason one of the best hockey channels is called What Chaos!
This sport will break your heart, that’s the point.
This isn’t about Dallas. Its about the Oilers giving themselves the best chance to win. They knew the limitations of the Nurse Ceci pairing 2 years ago and did nothing to fix it.
The frustrating part is that they are a very good team, but we’re right there with them.
This isn’t like the Colorado series.
The weak links are killing us… We don’t have 4 playable defensemen. Knoblauch doesn’t have an answer for Dallas stretching their weak side forward.
So close…
With the return of Hintz and his awakening of Robertson, the mountain just got higher.
And Hakanpaa is travelling with the team and skating so there’s a chance he could return in this series.
He’s 6’5″ and 220 and would shore up the 3rd pairing nicely.
The story revolves not around Dallas, but what the Oilers can do. This is the core of the debate today, some saying oh well all the teams are good can’t win them all, and others saying the Oilers went into the playoffs with their pants half down and the belt shop around the corner
Dallas hasn’t done much to take their goals, as in the Oilers are playing well and can’t stop them. It’s the Oilers screwing up and that’s different in terms of advantage, not different in terms of their history
There are two factors that will impact the outcome.
The first is the Stars forward depth. Their bottom 6 just got stronger with Hintz bumping Johnston and Duchene down a line.
McDavid and Draisaitl are playing significantly more minutes than the Stars top forwards and that leads to fatigue and mistakes.
And let’s not forget the Stars had an extra three days of rest between series.
Harper, you need to channel your love for the Oilers in a positive direction. I think that might be what’s needed to push the Oil over the top
Sounds make up since we are one-day removed from DeBoer saying Hakanpaa is “not close” to making his return.
Agree completely.
That said, it would be kind of frustrating to lose a series because half your defencemen can’t be trusted to make a breakout pass.
went to the game and it was a rough last 8 mins
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
Skinner starts game 4. Not a surprise but Knoblauch confirms.
So damn stupid.
What about Kulak – Broberg as a second pairing?
Dallas’ 3rd pairing isn’t playing much, maybe Edmonton can do the same with 2 of Nurse and Ceci/Desharnais at evens.
It’s not fair to Broberg, but I can see the temptation.
Maybe time for an 11-7 to test it.
At morning skate
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Holloway – Gagner* – Perry**
Foegele – McLeod – Brown
Janmark – Carrick – Ryan
Ekholm – Bouchard
Broberg^ – Desharnais
Kulak – Ceci
Kemp
Based on morning skate, no changes to the lineup or lines/pairings (back to recent normal parings, i.e. Nurse/Deharnais).
Gagner, Perry placeholding for Kane and Drai and Broberg placeholding for Nurse.
To me, that impies that Nurse is banged up as he rarely takes skates off.
Coach confirms that Skinner will start and says a decision on McLeod has not been made.
The incredible disappearing Troy Stecher. Isn’t anyone in the media going to tell us what happened to him?
A quote from Gregor below, ankle surgery. They must practice hard
Henrique?
Weird how Edmonton absolutely dominated and humiliated Dallas for one period, and then Dallas did it back in the 2nd.
If we reversed the order of period one and two, people in here would not be so full of doom and gloom. But is it really different?
Doesn’t anybody think Dallas is a little scared that they had zero answer to the Oilers for 20 min. and could easily have been down 5-0? Nobody thinks that their top players are in trouble because they can lose focus (or drive, or whatever) for 20 straight minutes, and they’re lucky it didn’t cost them?
I don’t like seeing the Oilers so badly beaten up for 20 min., but the Stars fans should be thinking the same thing. They’re right to wake up with some nagging doubts today.
What is a bit sad is you can trace the origins of the Dallas push back to a complete inability of the Nurse – Desharnais pairing to defend the blue and outlet the puck cleanly. They just can’t do it, and then there’s sustained pressure with multiple Dallas forward lines changing.
Watching live it was the epitome of the “stop,stop he’s already dead” gif from the Simpsons
If folks have the time I’d encourage you to rewatch the start of the 2nd.
The shift it question was a sequence of pain. But that was really the last sequence of pain really for the whole game. Dallas went from 4 shots to 8 shots. And then it was a lot of back and forth. Dallas didn’t actually control play like many seem to be remembering.
After the Nurse Marathon shift, the Oilers had three shifts and actually had a few chances. Kane just missed the net from the slot. Janmark line got in with a few whacks. It was a jailbreak from an Ozone turnover that led to the 2-1 goal.
After that the Oilers got a few decent looks, again the Janmark line holds the zone for 45 seconds or so and the Oilers get a change in during. At one point Ryan dusts off a slot shot a little too long and it s blocked, but other wise the puck is in the Dallas end or the neutral zone.
For the 2-2 goal Ekholm tries to stand up but he blows a tire on engagement, swipes the puck into the centre of the ice and Nuge blows a tire at the blueline and both are late back into the slot to tie up JR along with McD who’s not really covering anyone.
Both goals against were quick strikes, Dallas was in the zone maybe 8 seconds. Ditto with goal three that whole sequence took six second.
Gonna take my own advice here and remove blame from Bouchard on the 2nd GA. Ekholm and Nuge falling led to an odd man down low. Both couldn’t get back quick enough and well McD was right there, wasn’t doing too much but it happened fast, 3 seconds maybe. Bouchard had no role in that.
Vinny definitely most responsible for the 3rd GA. That was a fugly play.
Bouchard backed away from the front of the net when Hintz pushed in. It was “no mas” just like on the first GA.
Yeah, bad luck happened elsewhere, but Bouchard could have stopped it all just by refusing to budge.
Umm maybe but I think you’re letting McDavid off the hook here.
Bouchard was never in the middle and swapped out. The play happened fast. Once Hintz and Seguin got by the felled ark, McDavid freezes and just stands still. He could have marked one of the two but he just stood there. both came from the right and Hintz boxed him out. Bouch tied up his stick but cause McDavid didn’t come back Seguin was left to hack and whack to his hearts content.
McDavid failing to mark anyone allowed the two Stars to get down low. He didn’t engage Hintz or Robertson after. Hyman did a fly by to the far post and could have nabbed Robertson or ran over Hintz. Nuge fell and then didn’t tie up Robertson.
The whole play took five seconds.
Of course it was Bouchard’s fault though. Always is 😉
Nice summary – why aren’t the Oilers getting quick strikes?
All three goals were odd.
Ekholm misses two clearing attempts in the Danger Zone (ie ten feet inside the blue) but he had a lack of help from Nuge who both times falls over. Its those turnovers up high, and Oiler players falling down, that allow for the quick strikes.
The 3rd goal is just no bueno on Vinny and he too falls just as the goal is scored.
If our guys maintain their balance nothing much would happen. But they didn’t so a lot happened.
No different than Dallas’s top five D in the first. Desharnais and Nurse didn’t break at that point.
Bouchard, Ekholm, McDavid, et al broke on fundamentals, unlike the Dallas D, which broke on a deflection and a lost contested stick battle.
The Oilers goals against Dallas were normal random up variance. Deflection off of Hyman. Lost stick battle between Seguin and McDavid.
The first three Dallas goals against Edmonton were from fundamental mistakes, systematic non-random down variance. i.e. It is likely to happen again in the same direction. The winning goal was like the Oilers goals, normal random up variance.
Damn disappointing last night but this team is flippin’ giving their all, dominant 1st for oil, dominant 2nd for dallas, tie going into the third… vinny crushes the post, brilliant toe save by stu, tough goal for stu… i was pissed like us all. There is no room and no time out there, its a tight series here, this is playoffs. Dallas is a deep, well coached team. Dallas is beatable. Its a fine line. Everyone is hurt, somehow.
As annoyed as I was last night on the game winner. This is fn playoffs. Enjoy it.
Well put.
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
Troy Stetcher will be having ankle surgery soon. For those asking why he hasn’t been skating.
Acquiring Stetcher is right up there with 2 2nds for Athanasiou
I don’t recall any injury report. If he came with it I don’t know what to think
Moving down from 4th to 7th in the draft is the same as two 2nd round picks?
Wow, it’s almost comical that the guy who was acquired for #7 and hasn’t played in over a month is having ankle surgery. Injured getting too and from the press box?
Is there any way that Darnell Nurse isn’t dealing with a significant injury?
I know, its a cop out to think that every time a player struggles its due to injury but Nurse’s plays has been so far below established levels for such an extended period of time (and, in some ways, with easier/lesser responsibility) that I’ve got to think he has to be. I sure hope so.
If it is why play him? Bro can’t be worse
Its not Nurse’s fault that Vinny has been very poor the last four games. Also not Nurse’s fault that Stu decides to make poor game management decisions usually once a game. Stu had been so good the last four though. Toughie last night.
Time to break the pile on. There are some Nurse flubs, there’s also a lot of teammate flubs. There’s also a lot of forward teammate “one and done” in the o-zone which has led to a lot of defending.
Dig a bit deeper into some of them GAs OP. Not everything is Nurse’s fault.
I agree with this completely. Desharnais has been very poor on some of these GA. That pairing is fatally flawed because neither can move the puck. Limited third pairing minutes maybe.
Strawman – never spoke about specific goals against, never said everything was Nurse’s fault. I spoke about Nurse’s game being well below his established levels and that opinion is based on me watching, well, every second of play.
I posted yesterday, before the game about his struggles on puck retrievals and getting clean exists – nothing said about goals against specifically.
It’s possible. He isn’t skating the puck out as much at all, despite it being one of his stronger suits. At the offensive blue, he’s often just kind of standing still.
On the other hand, lots and lots of mental mistakes. Problems with gaps and zone entry defence were issues before, and they are seemingly becoming magnified now.
He honestly looked nervous and surprisingly clumsy. I remember one moment in the DZ and one in the OZ where he looked awkward and I was like WTF Nurse. Had an open look, took forever to wind up and missed wide badly.
Could very well be injured.
Since Ekholm Bouchard with McDavid became a thing, Nurse is taking on the tough minutes with no/less help. Ceci is no help. Desharnais really is only a really good #3RD/PK guy.
When he was getting significantly more McDavid time, it would relieve some of the pressure and stress. He needs a competent partner with the composition and deployment of the Oilers forwards.
The remaining forward lines are always flawed in some way defensively. Kane is a net positive player for the overall package, but he only average defensively. Foegele is weak defensively. Holloway has been fine this time around defensively. McLeod provides little offense. And Perry is weak defensively. Brown provides not offense. etc.
So he’s good when playing with the best player in the league and he’s not good when he’s not playing with said best player? Your explanation is nothing more than ‘it’s everyone else’s fault.’
I am really having trouble getting a feel for this edition of the Oilers, because they show stretches of dominating the game, before reverting to a porous defensive shell that hasn’t been working.
The first thing I noticed in last night’s game was how the puck was bouncing. When the Oilers were rolling in the first period, some good chances bounced over their sticks. The pucks were bouncing like water drops on a hot pan. I don’t know if this issue was significant or even if it was only in my imagination. Am I alone in questioning the bouncing puck?
No like I said, I saw players losing an edge from the very beginning
Yes, I noticed your point after I posted. It shouldn’t be a decision maker, but it does affect the play as it hampers high speed/skill plays more.
Everyone calm down they are not in trouble until they lose tomorrow night. I’m not against seeing Broberg at some point here but acknowledge that it may not help at all. His skating would sure help especially with the cherry picker Dallas puts out there but its a wildcard. I feel the Oilers are going to have to leave no stone unturned to win this series. The guys need to up the physicality and hope for a key Dallas injury to change this series.
Dallas is a good team, the Oil are trading blows with them and keeping it very close.
If McD scores on his whiff it’s a different game.
Change the Goalie, tweet the lineup a bit.
Just wondering if the goalies stick should “break” right before being pulled, it means he’d have to immediately drop it right?
And since he is standing in the crease, he’d have to drop it right in front of the net right?
And they could call a timeout right before pulling him right?
All kidding aside, backs to the wall is when they play best, go Oil.
Goalies are allowed to play with a broken stick (the only player on the ice afforded this ability), and thanks to Roger Neilson, they are not allowed to drop their stick in the crease when leaving the ice for an extra attacker, or else they receive a penalty.
Dropping a broken stick in the crease would be interesting, and unlikely to be called, but the refs certainly could call a penalty for it.
Hmmm. and if they dropped it JUST outside the crease nut almost as effective as one dropped INSIDE the crease? Picking nits, I know…
And as for our lineup. Would like our bottom 6 to be
McLeod-Henrique-Foegele
Janmark-Carrick-Perry
Ryan and Brown out (yes Brown has been better, but i’d rather he sat then McLeod)
Brown has direct contributions to goals in back to back games and you’d sit him?
And you’d sit him for McLeod and/or Perry? Who’ve done… less than nothing?
I am not a Brown fan but this seems like a really poor idea given his results this series.
trying to change it up. i like brown. But I’d like to see Perry back in. maybe you keep McLeod out and move Brown up to 3rd line with Foegele and Henrique. But Perry can grind and score big goals, and that 4th line wouldn’t miss a beat with him on it. But mostly its to have someone on that bench to calm them down and not have 15 minutes of a gong show. No one in the lineup has been where he has, and i feel like it’s missing.
This team is slowwwwwwwww. Maybe put McLeod on wing instead of center but too many cement boots, sorry. Brown at least can wheel.
Well the Coach did switch it up didn’t he? Against pretty much everyone on this blog he sat McLeod, ran Rico, brought up Brown and put Ryan down. Low and behold, despite the blog screaming that Foegele was the problem that new 3rd line scores with a minute left in the 2nd period.
I thought the 4th line was rambunctious, especially in the 1st where Carrick came to play, and were unlucky when Vinny had his flub in the 2nd. I’d maybe sit Carrick and run McLeod for a bit more speed on that line but that’s it. I think Corey Perry is probably done for the playoffs. He was no good bad after Game 3 against L.A.
The bottom six has performed admirably, plus they are mostly a big part of the PK. Unfortunately, it’s the top six that needs to be shaken, but not stirred. Can they blend the top with the bottom six? What would that look like?
Nurse is an issue. Not this year but for the next 6 of his deal. For that money, it is a laibility to have him as your 4th best dman.
Could you do a Jones from Chicago for Nurse deal? Swap an over[aid LD for an overpaid RD? It fits our strengths better, allowing a LD of Ekholm, Broberg and Kulak. And moving our overpaid one to our weakest side, so at least he allows us to slot our D better, especially if you move Ceci.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Jones
Broberg-Desharnais/anyone
I doubt Chicago would have much interest in doing this since RD have more value.
Chicago is at a place in their rebuild that they are much more likely to build out their D corp through the draft as shown by Kevin Korchinski and Alex Vlasic at LD and then use their voluminous cap space ($34 million next season) when the time is right.
They also have two first round picks in both of the next two drafts and I imagine they will use some on D.
Nurse has a full NMC until 2027, so I’m not sure why he would accept being traded to Chicago at all.
Would you like to work for an employer who doesn’t want you? Why would an athlete be any different?
Wierd to watch a team with such amazing talent and at the same time such glaring deficits. And both have been there throughout Mcdavids time. They are better than they have ever been. I don’t lay this on Skinner, but too often he is incapable of stopping that one necessary goal. He hasn’t sucked but he is not where able to match the guy at the other end. And Nurse, how is it possible to be this bad. Regardless of his pay if this is who he is as a playoff performer than we have been duped.
Skinner has a tendency to let in at least one stinker per game. But he also makes plenty of tremendous stops to keep his head above water.
It’s not that Skinner doesn’t make some great saves it’s that when he lets in a stinker it’s at the most inopportune times.
was at the game live. We were right above the Oilers attacking net for 1 and 3 (and unfortunately Dallas for 2).
Here are my thoughts:
(1) The first period, the 97 line with Ek-Bouch looked like a power play. They controlled play, not sure what the stats were. Dallas was penned in. When they went up 2-0, I turned to my friend and said “thank god they got the 2nd, I was ready for another period of shots being 17-4 and yet the score is 1-1”;
(2) Already in the first, the rest of the team looked unorganized and unsettled. There is a real gap with this team when the McDavid Unit isn’t out, and Dallas doesn’t suffer the same gaps from line to line;
(3) Draisaitl looked like he was skating in sand in the first period. I am not sure he can carry his line anymore, it was rough to watch both in the OZ and DZ (other than that one incredible rush where he spun to the backhand). I’m guessing some kind of wrist/arm injury and ribs or groin. I think 2 separate injuries. His faceoffs just aren’t there.
(4) Say It Ain’t So Gretz mentioned the ice – players were stumbling around the ice, I thought we were supposed to have the superior ice but it was weird to watch.
(5) Bouch wasn’t great on the 2 goals against but by eye live, it was actually Ekholm who struggled a bit – a couple of times I wondered if his hip was bothering him again as he was getting burned.
(6) I didn’t think the PP was making poor decisions, but the zip isn’t there on the shots from 97 and 29. You take 10% off a shot and Oettinger is going to save it.
(7) It’s funny Henrique scored, because it looked to me like a guy who hadn’t played in 6 months. Behind the play and painfully slow.
(8) Ryan is doing his best but he’s slow and getting bodied.
(9) Kane is not a threat. Foegele is not a threat. Brown is not a threat. As I said yesterday, who is the Pisani? Henrique aside, if I’m Dallas I’m not scared of anything once the McDavid Unit is off the ice.
(10) Nice set play by Dallas I think on the 4th goal in the 3rd – our right d-man was pinching up so they launch the puck up high and have a forward parked right in front of our left D, they both go for the puck and the Dallas left winger burns up into open ice. They didn’t score directly from that play, but they definitely gained the zone and it led to Skinner letting in the horrendous goal.
(11) Knoblauch has made some bold moves but I think he blew it yesterday. He might have called his timeout after the Oilers were getting destroyed in the 2nd period before the game got tied up. Or after the 3-2 goal. I would have considered pulling Skinner just to wake up the team but guess that was a stretch.
(12) Pulling the goalie with 2:30 left when we can’t win an OZ faceoff was dumb. Put the McDavid Unit out there, keep Skinner in. Maybe if you’re in the OZ with possession in real time pull him, but it was a poor play in Game 2, and it was a poor decision in Game 3.
Unlike say Colorado 2 years ago when it was extremely clear there was no chance we were going to win the series, I’m glad the Oilers are keeping things close, but that also makes the little mistakes more frustrating.
With 97 & 29 being hurt, and the rest of the forwards not contributing much, I just think Dallas is too relentless.
It’s a shame we couldn’t put Vancouver away in 5 because those 2 extra games are affecting us as well. Dallas just seems to have more energy.
Thanks for this. So much goes on outside of our small camera view.
McDavid was near supernova in the first period.
McDavid also was also one of a number of Oilers players that made mistakes in the 2nd period that led to goals against (and multiple mistakes).
When discussing the game in real time, and the day after, I think its 100% fair to mention McDavid’s mistakes just as its fair to mention the mistakes of Skinner and Nurse and Foegele and Drai and Knoblauch – its part of the story of the game.
One can mention and discuss a poor/bad play (or plays) by McDavid in an honest discussion of the game without “blaming McDavid for the loss”.
McDavid was a MAJOR part of a dominant first period and the creation of a 2-goal lead. McDavid was also part of the problem in the 2nd period and the loss of the lead (and he was also one that missed a glorious chance to extend the lead).
The Oilers are not a cup contending team without McDavid.
All these things are true and can, and should, in my opinion, be discussed.
OP none of my biz but you don’t go to some of these home playoff games ? I don’t think you live in Edmonton, but somewhere up that way. I remember you mentioning going to a game in LA a while back. One of these days I’ll make it up there. I rode my motorcycle 20 years ago but Labor Day Weekend (US) and I was dead tired took me three days in Calgary to recover for the ride home.
You could have looked OP up when you were in Calgary.
Yeah I mean Dallas countered our 2 goals with the McDavid Unit with their own 2 goals in the 2nd period. It’s just the rest of the team can’t get us over the hump.
Wherever Holland goes trade them Nurse for an expiring contract and a 5th.
Sit Nurse/Ceci, play Broberg who cares about fairness it’s life.
This is a revelation! How do you ditch 2 bad contracts? Send them to their author in another city
What do you do with nurse here on out?
Cant defend zone entries, can’t clear the crease, can’t pass the puck well.
once in a blue moon he throws a hit and skates in a straight line well and is healthy a lot but man.
You almost have to put him with Bouchard to see if you can’t get something useful out of him
Sit Ceci and see what works. Can’t keep using D that aren’t winning their TOI
Trading 25 with 2 or 3 retained is doable. Sending Ceci out for peanuts is doable. Kane is a bigger hit but can be done too. All of these need to happen to get the 29 extension and prepare for Bouchard’s next contract.
Stuart Skinner Playoff Stats:
2022-23: 12GP / 3.68 / .883
2023-24: 13GP / 2.76 / .885
Career: 25GP / 3.17 / .884
Skinner saved two Oiler seasons, while the prized expensive UFA acquisition mentally broke twice playing behind the Oilers leaky team defense.
There’s a difference between regular season and playoffs. The big stage is where you’re remembered.
Skinner is in his 2nd NHL season. Two saved seasons. One time taking the Oilers to the 2nd round, and one time into the third round if not further.
All behind a team that has lousy team defense.
You’re correct about Skinner. The error was expecting him to be a top-10 goalie. That he’s a top-25 goalie is a credit to the young man.
The blame for last season falls to Jack Campbell. He was so bad he lost the net to a rookie.
The blame for this season is on management for failing to correct, leaving it all on Skinner for the second straight season. Luckily Cal Pickard bailed them out.
Pickard may need to bail the team out one last time.
All of the numbers from the regular season suggest the Oilers did NOT have lousy team defence.
Who gives an eff about the regular season? Other than being good enough to make the playoffs.
One should build a team that can contend. It is not likely the Oilers have a defense that will hold up for 20 something playoff games against only the best teams in the NHL. The Oilers are like the Dan Reeves Denver Broncos, hoping Elway’s brilliance will be enough to overcome mediocre Bronco’s defenses and an mediocre running game.
Elway couldn’t overcome the downside variance of the roster until Shanahan added a running game and a defense, and Elway then prevailed at far less than peak Elway.
See I’m not sure why you can’t spread the love or the blame just a little bit. There’s an awful lot of evidence that the Oilers are one of the best defending teams in the league at limiting HD scoring chances. Whether its regular season or playoffs this year. On occasion though they give up a doozy.
But Stu’s numbers are at times so bad that the Oilers would have to be uniquely bad at giving up “tap ins” for them to be the primary fault line.
Odds are its somewhere in between. Stu as a young goalie tends to have some feast or famine stretches no matter how well his team is playing. And other times the team gives up a doozy at just the wrong time, or has a stretch of its own where its feast time for the oppo.
Doesn’t that sound a bit more likely and jive with the actual results?
We all have our opinions, I have mine about goalies. I don’t like how Stu plays, never have. He’s not bad, he just has issues I don’t like. It reminds me of Koskinen or Smyth, you can look at numbers or whatever, never liked how they played and in the end they couldn’t do well enough
I just want a normal playing goalie again that pulls off big games. No weird flaws, nobody under 6’2 and that’s even short nowadays
Agreed. Someone you can put in and know you’re getting.900-.905. We would outsource that and not worry about goaltending every game
I think at least certain Oilers suffer from moments of panic. When they get scored on, they get scored on in bunches. We need a Pronger level of calm on the back end.
Bouchard didn’t panic on the two goals against he was primarily responsible for. He was calm AND indifferent or paralyzed.
It might be worth a mention that blowing leads is exactly what you’d expect when playing against a team with better depth.
The Oilers can set an elevated pace early but eventually they run out of gas. Dallas withstands the early onslaught with its superior goaltending and their superior depth pays dividends in the 2nd and 3rd.
It wasn’t the Oilers depth that cracked last night. It was the Fab 5.
Again, precisely what you’d expect to see. The stars getting ground down because there’s no easy shifts and clean air to be found.
To his credit, KK continues to play the bottom 6 and Henrique scored a wonderful goal last night BUT the roster as a whole just can’t maintain the same level of 60 min push that Dallas can sustain with its better depth. It’s very revealing how exhausted the Oil play by the end of each period.
I disagree with this assertion that Broberg is fine china, how dare you put a Big Mac on him, we take him out for Sunday dinner only, or something. (It’s a metaphor!)
Bottom line is, no one actually knows how he will play until he plays. Just like Pickard (who should also play). To an extent, even Henrique, who missed several games and had every excuse to be rusty. By the way, I didn’t even notice Henrique in the frame when his goal was scored; he’s like the butler in Mr. Deeds.
Back to Broberg. It’s still hockey. Nobody is asking him solve Schrodinger’s equation, or make fresh pasta by hand, or juggle daggers. If there were mistakes in handling the player, so what! Forget it! You can’t control the past. But for large stretches of that time, he wasn’t playing checkers in Central Park, he was a dominant defenceman at the AHL level. He isn’t Beau Akey; you’re talking about a guy who has performed well in 80 plus NHL regular season games and 10 playoff games AND we haven’t seen much of this latest, refined, evolved Broberg, who, for all we know, may be more Broborg.
Nurse has zero confidence right now. He is a man in shambles! I don’t know what it is. Usually when Nurse struggles he is having difficulty with one or two tenets of defending, not everything. He is a polarizing player but he’s never been this bad. You can’t just trot him out there on the second pair and say all will be well.
Desharnais cannot move the puck and Ceci looks like he would crater the xGF and GF of God himself.
One very practical thing they could do is scratch one of Ceci/Desharnais, play Broberg with Nurse, and give Kulak the remaining, pinless grenade.
The Oilers had 82 games to get him into the system, make him part of the team. They gifted him 12. Maybe he thrives, and if he does, good on him.
No credit to coaches or management. It was a silly thing to do.
I don’t know if you can put it on the coaches. I don’t see many teams sitting NHL regulars if there aren’t injuries reg season
Holland said he wanted to give the group another shot. I would like to swear now and say not nice things
One of the many purposes of the regular season is to built roster optionality for the playoffs. Not playing Holloway, Broberg, and Lavoie and making them options was nuts.
Fortunately for the OIlers, Holloway made it across the threshold just in time, even though they didn’t play him enough. But Broberg and Lavoie could have made it also if they had been provided the opportunity.
I agree and it’s why I’m putting it on Holland, not the coaches. He wanted to ‘give the group another chance’ and chose to vet up and blocked them. Coaches don’t sit NHL regulars just because
Meanwhile Dallas is playing rookies and one that the Oilers under Mr H passed on
It’s also not the first time one of Holland’s old deadline vets missed a bunch of games
Both things can be true. They should have played Broberg more in the regular season and he needs to play in game 4.
I’m okay if they play Broberg. I don’t have confidence that they can win it with Ceci. I said so in September, in October, in November, and so on…
But it is extremely difficult for Broberg to make a difference now, so I’m not screaming day and night like I was in the regular season.
Lots of us were calling for Broberg to play more, but it’s all done now. He did play primo minutes in the AHL, and maybe there will be some benefit to that, as was the case with Holloway. We won’t actually know until he plays.
Fair or not, lots of players only get opportunity due to injury or underperformance by veterans. Broberg has played on large stages before. I suspect he would thrive.
Did you see Nurse’s interview after the game? He certainly did not appear to be a man with zero confidence. He wasn’t in shambles, and either was Skinner. That is a positive sign. Which leads me to believe they aren’t out of this yet.
They are better talkers than on ice performers, a lot of them
My point is they aren’t hanging their heads and are maintaining a positive mental attitude.
I didn’t see the interview, but his game looks toast right now. The extended shift Dallas had prior to queuing the comeback was Nurse having time to clear and putting off the boards onto the stick of a Dallas d-man. I truly believe he has never played this bad, because in the past he would have a solid game and be victimized on the back door play. Now it’s like…everything is leaky.
Wow- even the local PR guys now suddenly interested in the d core.
Ceci and Nurse are 3rd and 4th in TOI for our D.
There is no fix coming.
KK has become infamous for his ‘ reuniting’
Nurse and Ceci last night.
KK is clearly going to die in this hill so we may as well get on with it.
Something tells me the 2RD will be upgraded this summer
The fix comes by way of the forward group getting low on the back check and supporting in layers. When they do this the D is never an issue.
Very true. This is something that Godot and I strongly agree on.
I think they would be smart to run that pair back for the 4th time 😉
They need to change out a fairly large number of players, if they want to get to the level they should be at
It’s how the GM we should have hired turned the Panthers from golfers to conference final regulars in ‘3’ years. You just need to know what type of players to get and go get them
Anything else is just excuses, and that leads nowhere good in sports
Risk management. Success in investing is mostly cutting ones loss quickly. Cut off the left tail, limit drawdowns, and the right tail will take care of itself.
One has to identify the worst D, relative to their level of play for their position, and the worst forward, relatvie to their level of play for their positioin, and improve on the worst players.
On the Oilers D and team overall, it was clear that was Ceci, and Ceci represented the likely locale of the mostly likely critical point fo failure.
The Oilers have problems at forwards, but none of them are likely a critical point of failure. It is easy to just play them lower in the lineup, and Holloway would eventually break through.
Since last September, I asserted how the Oilers should handle the Ceci problem. Ceci was always the most significant risk to success.
I agree with this but not the pace. Change out all players that are cap inefficient or don’t fit the vision. As quickly as possible. Careers are relatively short. But the vision has to be right, and this one isn’t
I don’t want to be overly judgmental; Oilers were in the same position last series with Vancouver. This was when Pickard came in, calming things down with a victory to tie the series at two apiece, then they lost a closely contested game to trail 3-2. Remember? And then a sharper, rested Skinner won two in a row. Oilers won in seven, everyone was happy.
This game four tomorrow night is the biggest game of the year, and every remaining game will get even bigger. Now they need to win three of four to beat Dallas and move on to the cup final where they need to win four more to hoist the cup. The road to the cup isn’t easy. I’m proud of the team for making it this far.
And do you know what? They’re still in this thing.
Best PP heading into this series vs one of the worst PKs.
Jaw dropping ineffectiveness….from the big 5 . Special teams was the key to our success
Tanev didn’t arrive till the trade deadline. Heiskanen missed 11 regular season games. Haakenpaa missed nearly 20, and still isn’t back.
Dallas has done a great job in their own zone pressuring the D at the blueline, cutting off the rim around reversal, and of course then stretching the zone. This has hurt the cycle/possession game for the Oilers.
Hahaha oh so much drama. You can tell the sphincters are tight amongst the Oilers media and some fans. Sad to see but even OP is flirting with the doubt today. Too bad cause I think they’re as close to full power as they’ve been since Englund crashed into McD’s knee in Game 4 of the L.A. series. I’m not noticing any coughs or colds either.
I’m glad McDavid isn’t nearly as soft as LT wants him to be. You don’t think he re-played his flubbed shot on the wide open net in the 1st and then the two coverage issues over in his head last night? You don’t think Nuge isn’t wondering why he didn’t pickup anyone on his two crucial shifts in the 2nd? BTW what the hell is it with Oilers slipping and falling on their home ice?
Curious that LT singles out Nurse. He singles out Vinny. He mentions Ceci and Kulak and and then he rants epically about Broberg. But doesn’t touch on the lax play of Ek-Bouch on the first two GAs. Similar to the McD idea, nobody is perfect, we shouldn’t expect it, and no we aren’t saying they need to move heaven and earth but its a problem if we aren’t even allowed to acknowledge what happened isn’t it?
Its a game of inches. McD reaches just a bit further into Robertson’s backswing on the first GA and its flubbed into the corner. Bouch and Ek do something, anything at Hintz in the corner and the pass isn’t made to JR in the first place. Nuge does something, anything, to JR on the 2nd and its a nothing shot. Ek bears down instead of a soft little chip and Nuge doesn’t blow a tire on a turnover right at the blueline Sometimes even the Biggest Stars can get burned in singular moments. It means nothing in the long run and yes we’re allowed to point it out.
I’d like to see the Oilers play a full 60 minutes this series. They played a full sixty in Game 1 and 3 against L.A. and then in Game 6 against Vancouver. Otherwise its been 40-50 minutes. When they slack off its not a little bit either, its full on stand around in what a zone defense “should” look like if you drew it up. A full 60 would be refreshing, the results would likely be very lopsided in our favor.
Calm your tits. They’re the goods. They’ve been pushing back on the Doomerism all season and yes I know, I know, McDavid is going to leave us so how can I be so nonchalant? Same threats different day. No straight lines, no “right way,” all that jazz. Gotta set their jaw and bring it with Fury and Thunder. They got this.
To switch gears – Oilers media fixation on Nurse has meant they’re missing what’s happening on the other bench. After the breathless takes about Tanev shutting down the best of the best, DeBoer is now sheltering him. And he moved his actual best “defense” man in Lindell, up with Heiskanen to try and even out the throttling that pair has been taking. Harley played with Tanev which has brought more speed but lordy me those two will certainly get caught out of position. The Oilers are indeed woodshedding what was marketed as a stellar defensive group. Have to look past Nurse to see it though 😉
Were you at the game? Because yeah completely agreed on the McDavid/Nuge/Ek-Bouch stuff.
Nah watched at home. Made it to Etown for the Van series. First playoff game in 27 years. Sadly it was Game 3 hahah
Just try to focus on what I’m seeing vs what I maybe want to see. We all have biases but it’s such a beautiful sport if you keep a clear eye. You can see so much more happening and can appreciate just how fast it all is.
It’s why I’m surprised at the Nurse bashing today since it was his partners that flubbed up big last night and really I’m not that worked up about Ceci on the GwG either. Stu needs to make that save, tough break, he’s been so good the last four.
Vinny has been a drag on Darnell since the 2nd game they’ve been together but you’d never guess it if you came here.
Understatement: Game 4 will be big. And if they come out and play a full game and win it, can we finally start to accept that the team has a manner about itself? Certain tendencies that make the engine go brrr? What if the intensity that they play at in their A game is merely too close to the sun to sustain, and a dip and return to form is just the way the team works? Has to work? It’s been that way all year. What if the team wins the Cup by losing a few badly on the way? Will this fanbase excuse those loses?
Just show up for 60 full minutes of work from here to the end. Hoist the cup.
Don’t have a drink for the road, because the road is already laid out.
It sounds simplistic but man the Oilers are a damn fine hockey team when the commit to being one.
I was furious after the game last night, and only have managed to get to severely irritated today. I don’t put this on the top 5, though they did come out too leisurely in the 2nd period. I do put this on the brain trust who felt the D was solid enough if they couldn’t get Tanev.
It was infuriating watching 73 not mark his guy for the backdoor play on the 2nd goal, 25 backing into his zone or not committing to breaking up rushes with good pinches. The game was there for the taking, and I just don’t believe this Oilers team is capable of winning 2 in a row which suggests Dallas is going to end up with this series, even if it goes to 7 games.
I want to enjoy the journey, but I can’t reconcile myself to the result from last night yet.
I believe the brain trust tried hard to get Tanev. What more were they supposed to do if he/Calgary didn’t want him in our town? The brain trust clearly could have traded for Sean Walker, and I kinda wanted that at the time. But Walker didn’t exactly distinguish himself for Colorado, and Flyers fans now seem pretty happy with that trade.
I continue to believe that this team’s problem is between the ears. Do they have the drive to play a full 60 minutes? I doubt that adding Tanev or Walker materially changes the answer to that question.
I think Walker helps the Oilers D more than he helps Colorado’s. But if we are looking at all the poor numbers attached to Ceci, Desharnais and Nurse, but can’t trust a single other D to come in to help shore things up, well then that is on the management who decided the bottom 2 pairs were good enough.
It’s difficult to watch because they aren’t able to do game in and out what is so obviously there for them
It’s difficult to watch the best players shit the bed, but it must be frustrating for Connor to have little back up when he’s off the ice. It’s too much pressure, and he and Leon can play dumb when they seem to think they have to take the game on their shoulders
Difficult to watch? Where were you during the DoD?
I don’t find watching my team in the conference finals that difficult. It’s actually quite fun.
It is fun. In the DoD we knew they couldn’t win. Even two years ago it was obvious pretty early they couldn’t keep up with the Avs. Now they are so close to being a dominant team watching them flounder/self inflict losses is worse for me
3 Games. 10 Periods. The series is 2-1. No power losses or wins.
5v5 Goals. 8-7 Dal.
PP Goals. 0-0 (7-5 Opportunities Dal).
EN Goals. 2-0 Dal.
Dal 5v5 Goal scorers: Robertson (3), Seguin (2), Benn (1), Marchment (1), Johnston (1).
Edm 5v5 Goal scorers: McDavid (2), Hyman (2), Brown (1), Draisaitl (1), Henrique (1).
Dal EN Goals: Lindell (1), Heiskanen (1).
G1 vs Vancouver- up 4-1, blow the lead and lose 5-4
G3 vs Vancouver- up 1-0, blow the lead and lose 4-3
G4 vs Vancouver- up 2-0, blow the lead, but win 3-2 in the last 60 seconds
G5 vs Vancouver- up 2-1, blow the lead and lose 3-2
G1 vs Dallas- up 2-0, blow the lead, but win 3-2 in OT
G3 vs Dallas- up 2-0, blow the lead and lose 5-3
The Oilers have blown a lead in 6 of their last 10 playoff games.
This isn’t a recipe for winning it all.
Nope -a clear pattern here
Remember when we used to begin games by letting in a soft goal or two, and be playing catch-up? It wasn’t long ago. It seems that we’ve traded one problem for another.
Yep, playoff hockey vs good NHL hockey teams
Criticism this morning: team has no balls, no class, no talent, bottom barrel frauds.
Ad nauseam repeat and rewash since November. Each loss reinforces your perceptions. As if they weren’t locked in a tight series against the other best team in the NHL. As if they slept through another Tuesday in December in Columbus. Mix it up folks!
As if this team has its flaws but hasn’t shown time and again the ability to adapt and regroup.
As if they owe you anything.
Do you think they deserve to win after last nights performance?
Yes I said deserve.
I posted yesterday that they did not deserve to win. I have no expectations that the team will win every game. Sometimes it is their fault.
Yes, they do owe us everything. There is no NHL without fans, the paying customer. They aren’t doing us a favour letting us watch
The problem with being an apologist for this and for management is that there is one thing that is different for the Oilers than every other team
They have one of the greatest players of all time. Whether folks want to acknowledge it or not, it makes expectations different, especially for a team that has had one before. It was the same for Sid as it is for Connor, and Sid isn’t in the same category now
Ok yeah they owe us “everything”. Including 82 wins + 16, a cup every year and every other fan base and management accepting it. Look they supply the product. I don’t remember a team actually not getting out of bed in the morning do you? Or staying on the bus? They sell the game, not the win.
All they “owe” is effort. They do it for themselves and their teammates. You don’t think they want it more than you?
People are free to critique as they see fit. All I am pointing out is a pattern whereby the criticism never affords any leash despite patterns. In doing so I am hoping we don’t become Toronto 2.0 where the entitlement leads and the fandom follows. It’s not a good look.
+1
Yes they are really playing for themselves first of course. I don’t blame the players for the big picture, and I think each one is giving everything they have. No team wins every game
The elephant in the room is Connor. To me and I think a lot of people that makes it different for the Oilers. The expectations are high and should be. The players want it more than the fans and probably have higher expectations than we do
The frustration comes from I think having a team so close to being dominant, but not enough support has been built around Connor. The players can’t change that and the coaches don’t have a lot of options at this point. Comments get directed at the players or coaches sometimes, but they aren’t the root of the issue
I don’t disagree with any of that – I also have high expectations for the team. This beautiful and flawed team. Two things we can always count on: maintaining their A game — which I think is the prettiest hockey since the Berlin Wall came down — is unsustainable. It’s like juggling, eventually you drop the balls. But secondly has been push back. They consistently have found their A game when they absolutely need it. I would point to the final few minutes if game 7 in Vancouver. Absolute domination.
Much of this must be on McDavid whose game is a mirror of the team: high wire act that is unsustainable (not above criticism himself – in the picture for far too many against!) but can get tapped into when needed. I think we can see the team on those terms.
Yes that is where they are at now and it isn’t changing this playoffs. But it isn’t where they have to stay is the point, or the only possible situation. It was chosen
Yes, expectations are high, and they should be but are reasonable expectations not being met? This team is in the final 4 and down 2-1 in the series having lost two one-goal games and showed periods of dominance in each of the three games (and periods of, well, far less than dominance).
What more is reasonably expected? A sweep? Blowing out the opposition?
You are talking about now as it is. The points being made by me and others are that there were other approaches that might have lead to a different situation. Almost certainly. There are multiple struggling players that were identified last year or even earlier
I wish that the point was taken by everyone apologizing for how hard a time they are having against pretty good but also flawed teams that don’t have the enormous advantage of CMD. We mostly all know they are trying as hard as they can, it’s just that they shouldn’t have to battle the other guys and also overcome some players performing poorly, players kept by choice that simply aren’t good enough
You could probably get past one or two, but four or five or whatever is a big self inflicted hurdle
Talking about now: I think the difference between the two views is that it is a reasonable expectation of this team to be in every final four but the best player doesn’t guarantee any team in any sport a win every year.
It would have been great if the window were open longer for 97, but the window is the window and they’re in it now. McDavid is the best player, but it’s still hockey. Crosby had a long window, he didn’t win the cup more than not.
Mistakes were made: Holland made them, Chiarelli made them. The Pronger trade still reverberates. But all that leads to a window, mercifully, finally. So these players playing poorly, who “simply aren’t good enough” have proven otherwise. They are good enough to get in the window and knock on the door. They aren’t even facing elimination yet in the Conference Finals. That’s elite and I think we see greatness not from McDavid et al blowing everyone out of the water — this is hockey and everyone has the same money to spend — but by coming back again and again and again.
So the expectation is that they should be beating the elite teams with ease? That’s an opinion but one that includes an unreasonable expectation, in my opinion.
Agreed with this whole post:
Bear in mind, I think the “We want the Cup” chants are dumb and come off as extremely entitled. Is it a demand? Supportive? As fans we’re cheering them on, living and dying each game with them, but *we* don’t get the Cup. The players do. Of course round 1 had “we want the Cup” chants in various arenas. As if the players don’t want the thing bad enough. Smh.
Old man—not yet a dinosaur, but getting there (I saw a couple games of the ‘88 finals in person)—shakes fist. Let’s Go Oilers!!! Now get off my lawn.
What a strange game last night. During the 2nd nobody was willing to take bodies. Just stick check, fall on the ice, fail to get the puck out and Dallas scored.
It looked like a bunch of boys playing men. Nuge and Foegele were just straight garbage last night. So weak.
What to do with Nurse?
Play him with McDrai, encourage him to jump up into the play frequently, and get him up to a 10.5% shooting percentage. It worked in 2020! Or at least it worked for Nurse’s bargaining position.
Everyone talked about Dallas having more forward depth than EDM coming into the series.
It’s clear that’s not the case.
The Oilers are losing the defence and goaltending battles. Who could’ve predicted that?
10 year vet Darnell Nurse with 18 goals against 5v5 in these playoffs, while the next closest D to that sits at 12. It’s despicable. Injured or not. He’s simply never adapted.
But that’s hockey according to him. I don’t want to hear about small samples on him again.
Oettinger had a .900 last night and Skinner was worse, again. It’s always the timely weak goal, too. Play Pickard in G4.
On a positive note, Rico looked great. 71 should takes notes.
The difference between this series and the Vancouver series is that I felt like the Oilers were better than the Canucks almost every step of the way. I haven’t felt that way at all this series. Even against Vegas last year I felt like the Oilers were better but had some questionable Kozariing and bad breaks. Knoblauch will need some pretty amazing adjustments to turn the tide, I would think.