I rarely laugh out loud while watching an NHL game. These days, it’s usually me and my beautiful friend (in photo), and it is mostly quiet (I watch with the sound down). Ziggy is a little more tense than me, years of enduring my sudden outrage at a call have trained her to always be mindful that alarms may sound at any moment.
I laughed last night. Why? The first Oilers goal was scored by Ryan McLeod, assisted by Corey Perry and Darnell Nurse. Those three men have experienced some difficult times during this playoff run, and it was hilarious to see the Hockey Gods reward three men simultaneously who needed a stroke of good fortune.
The Oilers played well last night, after a wobbly start. Aided by coach Kris Knoblauch’s latest resurrection shuffle, the club rolled to victory and a tie in this series (2-2). If reports of Chris Tanev being injured are true, that’s a difficult turn for the Stars but more good fortune for Edmonton. It seems the injury Gods give, and take, and as always it is random.
Kris Knoblauch inserted McLeod, Perry and Philip Broberg into the lineup and once again it was a Bowman-esque decision. Knoblauch did the same thing against Vancouver (switching goalies, shuffling pairings, HS’ing Perry and moving Dylan Holloway to the Draisaitl line) and so we can safely call this a trend.
Maybe his best move last night was placing Leon Beliveau Draisaitl between McLeod and Perry. The line clicked like mad, going 1-0 goals, 6-1 shots and 74 percent expect goals five-on-five. I thought Draisaitl delivered his best game of the series, and returned to the dominance we saw against Vancouver and before that Los Angeles. McLeod drove to the net and was rewarded, and Perry did smart things when opportunity arose. It was a fun line to observe.
The McDavid Speedway line (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman) also delivered, 1-1 goals with a 60 percent shot percentage and a 69 percent expected goal share. Connor McDavid delivered a strong 200-foot game, he’s always adding more and more quality to an already ridiculous hockey minestrone. His awareness without the puck has reached peak levels compared to his past. The man’s game has more wrinkles than a Shar-Pei. Both wingers were quality, Hyman just does so many good things and Nuge plays the game the way every coach on the planet finds agreeable. He’s the modern Fred Astaire, one day I’ll tell you what I mean but don’t have time right now.
Adam Henrique has been criticized heavily by some Oilers fans for not being Tyler Toffoli. Last night, you can see what Ken Holland was thinking when he made the move to acquire the veteran center. I thought Henrique made great decisions all over the ice and it’s clear to me he belongs on Edmonton’s ‘all brainiac’ team (and it’s a pretty large group). Holloway and Kane played well enough without doing the spectacular, although one shot by Kane may impact the series in a major way.
Connor Brown is one of the least popular player acquisitions by the Oilers of this century emerging as a man fans regard highly, and his most recent point streak arrived at a splendid time. I wonder if this gentleman signs back here over the summer, it feels as though everyone got off on the wrong foot.
Mattias Janmark is a wonderful hockey player and proved it again last night. His goal was the big one, for this observer. The Oilers tied the score but also worked doggedly through an entire period with nothing to show for it but a ticking clock. Brown-to-Janmark will not live in infamy, but I do believe both men have earned much respect this spring.
Darnell Nurse is a favourite of mine, has been since the Oilers drafted him. An organization with famous forwards that rival even the Original 6 pantheons, the club’s list of defenseman is less impressive. Nurse was drafted very high, brought to the NHL very early, and began taking on the most difficult chores shortly after arrival. Last night, the game started so badly for him things looked dire for he and Edmonton (you can read some of the comments in yesterday’s GDT to prove my point). So the assist on the McLeod goal, combined with Nurse abandoning the passive role to unleash his fury on random Dallas Stars, was a beautiful thing for me. I cheer like hell for Nurse, partly because of the style of his game and partly because he has become the target of so many fans angry at the contract. No one even mentions the Oilers walking him to free agency anymore, it’s just Nurse=bad and Nurse=I’m mad and that’s just how people roll these days.
Brett Kulak made a difficult job look easier after early wobble, miles of respect for a man who could have been a target this morning if things didn’t work out fine. Philip Broberg and Cody Ceci did fine to my eye, it was rocking chair minutes for the young Swede. That introduction to the series and postseason was well played by all, including the coaching staff.
Evan Bouchard is an impact player in the National Hockey League.
Mattias Ekholm is so good across 200 feet that it’s easy to overlook what he brings. Wonderful game from a wonderful player. Teams should send their young defensemen to the Nashville Predators AHL team for training. My God he’s a smart hockey player.
Stuart Skinner played well, gave his team a chance and continues to show why he should be more highly regarded as an NHL starter. He’s not the mature goalie he will be, but he’s building a solid resume.
I’D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THIS
I choose the rooms that I live in with care. The windows are small and the walls almost bare. There’s only one bed and there’s only one prayer. I listen all night for your step on the stair. -Leonard Cohen
That is an exquisite passage by Mr. Cohen. It might be the best lyric ever for all I know. There’s beauty and grace and sweetness in it, the image created in the mind’s eye makes one swoon, perhaps remembering a touching moment in their own lives.
I see beauty in the game of hockey, in the stories of the men and women who play it. I see young people overcoming or being overwhelmed by obstacles and each time it’s a sliver of the overall story. When hockey players make mistakes, it’s because the game is difficult and the opposition is outstanding. A mishandled puck is not a character flaw, a bad bounce not recovered does not equal a bad man wearing your linen.
The allowable level of mistakes by Oilers players is zero. If there is one, and it’s a goal against, the howls are heard from Fort St. John to Irvine. The comments section last night is truly funny this morning. I encourage you to read all of them, to digest them, and then to remember them the next time Edmonton goes down 2-0.
The world needs more poets, the world needs more empathy, the world needs fewer experts saying I told you so. Leonard Cohen’s beautiful words speak to a higher level of living that exists in all of us. I love elevated conversation, I love ideas thrown and caught and thrown back again. Perhaps those will come to us again in time. I will watch for them with great anticipation.
The Lowdown hits the air at noon today, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us to break down the win, and Steve Lansky will be in-studio as we look forward to what is now a best of three. Hold on to your ass! You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
You gotta keep Broberg in, good problems to have.
I like Darnell Nurse plenty – always have – but there are tough decisions coming if we are going to keep McD-Drai-Bouchard together. One of those decisions probably involves Nurse and his $9 million cap hit which will simply not fit if you want to keep the other guys.
The article about Marner and the other likely player moves in the summer got me thinking. TOR is an ideal landing spot for Nurse as this is pretty much home and they are desperate for another high end dman. Marner with only one year left on his contract goes the other way – maybe to a 3rd team – and a good RHD goes to EDM. How about Ryan Pulock or Brandon Carlo if forced to pick a name. But even just keeping Marner for a year would be fine.
The cap is rising again. The Oilers will always be a top heavy team but there is space for everybody. Ya Darnell is overpaid by a few Mil but it’s not the end of the world.
This is a popular myth amongst Oilers fans, but it’s a myth nonetheless.
As long as Edmonton can move Campbell’s contract (1st + Bourgault?) there is plenty of room to re-sign Draisaitl, Bouchard and then McDavid without trading Nurse or Kane or any other significant contract.
There’s even money left over for an additional top-6 winger and a Ceci upgrade, as long as the team doesn’t re-sign guys like Henrique and Foegele this summer.
Here’s one way to do it:
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/835288
Campbell, Kulak and Ceci (optional) out, as well as guys like Henrique and Foegele not signed.
DeBrusk and Montour in.
23 man roster with $833k cap space (in case the signings are too low).
This summer isn’t the issue – it’s 2025 when both Drai and Bouchard need new contracts – and McDavid in 2026.
Nope, here’s a 25-26 roster with Draisaitl and Bouchard signed.
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/839354
McDavid’s salary probably won’t rise by more than $3M, so that’s easily accounted for with the annual cap increase.
As long as they management group, whoever that is, doesn’t give bloated contracts to depth and older players that need to be re-upped, there should be cap space available.
With that said, if the manager starts giving Deharnais over $2MM per or is re-signing Henrique near $4MM, etc., etc, then the cap space will dissipate.
2026-2027 cap 94.8M
CMD 14.5
Drai 13.5
Mcleod 2.5
Holloway 4.5
Nuge 5.125
Hyman 5.5
Lavoie 3.5
Nurse 9.25
Bro 2.5
Bouch 9.5
Stu 4
11 players leaving 20.425M
Yes it’s ‘possible’, but all of the younger players will still need bigger contracts than this if they are any good around this time. Depth would be a problem paying a 2nd pair D 9.25M
I think when his NMC relaxes it’s going to happen, if not before
Okay, wow.
Toronto trading Marner would be idiotic. Its like trading Hall, but worse, cause he doesn’t get hurt. Marner is the quintessential setup man. He’s the only one on that roster who is a pass first player. Treliving got lucky with the players he had in Calgary. he does not understand Modern Hockey and never will. The TO media and fans do not understand or appreciate what Marner does and if they sell him out I can guarantee that team will be worse off for it immediately and long into the future.
That contract for Nylander was almost as bad as Huberdeau. Seriously, almost as bad.
The Oilers should immediately try and wooo Mitch to come here if Toronto is dumb enough to let him go. We would be unstoppable.
Nurse is not really overpaid. The Oilers delayed locking him up, and then got unlucky when Holland enabled Chicago to reset the defensive salary scale when the Keith trade facilitated Chicago signing Seth Jones. Once the Oilers play Nurse with a competent partner, most of his so-called issues will go away.
You could say Nurse is overpaid and it’s not his fault
This isn’t what happened. And its so Oilers centric to think so.
Franchise Dmen have long made 10-12% of the Cap on long-term UFA deals. Nurse was the only NHL dman the Oilers had after Kelfbom hit LTIR and Larsson left. He came in on the high end as a result.
If you want to blame anyone look at the deals for Doughty and Karlsson. Those reset the values higher and removed the hesitancy to pay Dmen in the >$9 million per year range.
Cool article on KK: https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/simmons-edmonton-coach-knoblauch-is-not-a-yeller-and-a-teller-hes-a-teacher-and-oilers-are-learning
Do I have to give the Toronto Sun a click though?
Kalle Larsson. Thoughts?
Bob said late this afternoon, that he never saw this coming and that he had no idea who this guy was. Weird?
His players have also had a lot of academic success which IMO is probably a bigger deal at the USHL level than at the AHL.
Also he was under contract till 2025-26 so clearly had an out clause allowing a jump to a higher league.
I’ve seen some tweet from 3-4 years ago citing this guy will be on the radar of NHL teams and Scott Wheeler expressly approves of the hire.
That is all I know.
The Panthers are a lot like the Oilers. Often possession but no one to pad to in front
The Panthers and Rangers are wearing each other down could we see 4 OT games in a row. I wonder what the record for OT games in a series is?
NYR a better fit stylistically but Shesterkin could steal a series on his own. I still remember that game in December when FLA came to town and kicked the living cr*p out of the Oilers. A very good team.
RHN McDavid Hyman
Kane/Holloway Drai Kane/Perry – rotate the kid, grumpy old man and sport hernia
Janmark Henrique Brown – sounds like an awfully good 3rd line
Foegle Carrick Ryan – a good enough 4th line with 2 RHC and excellent pk
I see lots of talk of who they swap out next. I think you stick with this new six only because in game 3 it seemed evident that Desh couldn’t keep up. I say that without being critical of his game – I think his boots and reach and brain together are sufficient.
It’s just that less than halfway through game 3 Desh looked absolutely gassed. Dallas was testing him to the point where his mighty heart and lungs simply couldn’t get the O2 through fast enough.
If the wheels fall off this new six then another day’s rest can’t hurt him.
Connor Brown has the longest active point streak on the team.
He’s peaking at the right time plus he has a pissy playoff edge to him.
I think pairing Nurse with a better skater in Kulak really benefits his game and gives him room to play the more aggressive style where he’s at his best. The pair looked a little wobbly early, mostly due to Kulak being uncomfortable on his off side but once he settled in they looked pretty good with Nurse being very active and Kulak doing chores in the background.
The insertion of Broberg over Desharnais gave the team a boost in puckmoving, and a big step back in physicality, but I wonder if the tactical reason was to help cancel out Dallas stretch pass to a flying forward on the far blue, the early snooze aside they had that play under much better control in this game with Broberg on the bottom pair, two strong skaters with mainly Kulak covering on the second and Ekholm-Bouchard being Ekholm-Bouchard.
Perry came in and made a lot of clever plays. And threw a little dirt in here and there. Strong game from him. He’s fighting a battle against his physical limitations at this point though, if you play him that high in the lineup you pretty much have to let someone else take a shift here and there to give him some extra rest. At the end of the game his legs seemed like they just gave out.
Big goal for McLeod. I do like him better as a winger.
After the first ten minutes passed, I did not need to check the score. The Oilers were better by a mile. The goals would come, it became obvious. At the top of their game they are the best. Of course, it is difficult to play right at the top, but do that, and 6 more wins will come.
Edmonton fans are spoiled. They want the past. They want bragging rights. And whoever stands in the way of what they want, gets pummelled. It is a very selfish position. Its about how they will feel, its about them. Its not supportive of the club. Somebody is not doing what they want, somebody is failing and thus not delivering what they want in their own lives.
Lowetide blog has always been about dissecting play and performance, but reasonable. This run, social media and the associated pressure has turned the fanbase a bit unpleasant to tell the truth.
I’d posit that before the Oilers 3rd goal, the game was very much up in air.
You’re listening to the wrong people. There are lots of more positive viewpoints in here. But facts are facts, there’s a lot of truth revealed in the math… sadly some of those truths are negative.
Pontification defined
Forgive me for jumping to the front of the line, no time for all the comments today.
I loved Nurses game. First, he did take the criticism personally. This was a kid who used to have unwavering confidence in his game and his skills, and this was recently shaken.
He did not succumb to the interview where he “needs” to state “I need to be better” or similar. Instead he says F you. And then he takes action and goes to play for his teamates. This guy is important part of the team.
He reverts to his original style and strengths. Skating, hitting, snarl. Loved it!
One thing not talked about much today, is someone on the Oilers figured out the Stars opposite side forward was flying the zone early, and thought it would be a good idea to push the puck to that side during the cycle or upon reacquiring the puck via the forecheck.
That was a brilliant move. If it’s Knoblauch, he’s an even better coach than we thought.
Did they figure it out?
Or did Dallas come close to exploiting ( as Craig Simpson noted) not once, but twice, yesterday?
On the first attempt – I believe Dadenov was 2 miles behind our D and if he scores on that set play…they go up 3-0. ( though I am not certain of the time frame for sure)
As I mentioned this morning (and on the post-game pod last night), Dallas can close a few times in the first period to having this strategy work – close to a couple of odd-man breaks out of it.
Then, come the second period, that play was non-existent – I’m not technical enough to cite actual structural changes but the presumption is that the Oilers adjusted.
The most important thing they figured out last night was to stop dumping the puck in the corner on the rush chances and to stop trying to carry it in when Dallas stood up at the blue line.
In other words, stop making mental mistakes. Even Nobby referenced their zone entries post-game they were so bad at it in the first eight minutes.
Ken Holland continues to put his fingerprints all over this organization.
While it has been known for some time that committees hold forth in organizational decision-making under Holland, what was not known till yesterday is that Oiler coaching has the same committee approach in important matters like line-up decisions.
This of course became evident when Broberg was fingered for the line-up. It would have been a big ask to believe that KK was making that choice after he healthy-scratched him game-in and game-out in the regular season till Holland was forced to move the young lad to the minors to get him some playing time.
That choice almost came back and bit the rookie coach in the butt these playoffs (and still could), but Broberg took the demotion like a man and showed well on the streets of Bakersfield right through till the end of Condor season. Someone did some good work calming the waters of the Broberg camp, and likely it was the same guy who calmed the tits of Pujo’s agent.
So post-game KK admitted what everyone with a brain was already speculating after seeing Broberg would play, that he involves up to a dozen other voices in determining the line-up when it’s obvious a change must be made (even if the change is just to give the players a sense of belief, which is really the case for most changes and a lot of goalie pulls).
One or more of those twelve voices obviously convinced KK to put Broberg in the line-up, which was the gutsiest of the changes he made. McLeod was always coming back in the line-up “sooner rather than later” and inserting a proven playoff performer like Perry is a fairly easy decision too, but the Broberg selection was a different story.
I’d love to know who was the organizational man who convinced KK to give time to the kid he shelved like an elf in the lead up to the Christmas season.
Coffey? Stuart? Maybe, but their voices weren’t heard in November and December. Keith Gretzky? Strong possibility IMO. One or more of the Hollands? Maybe. Be easier to determine this if we knew the twelve voices but whomever it was, they deserve some internal kudos today.
And I highly doubt it was the two games at the end of the season that swung it, other than giving KK some comfort level (which was important, no doubt, but not a decision maker).
Someone somewhere in the org should be getting some kudos today. Kenny too, for making sure Bro was playing lots of minutes.
But no one deserves more kudos than Broberg himself… for sticking it out, for continuing to learn and develop (as Holloway did) and then for seizing the opportunity when it arose.
These are things that good organizations are made of. Took a long while for Darryl the owner to learn. But he’s a much better owner now than when he bought the team, and that’s for sure. Someone should maybe write an article about that. If the Oil take Stanley, I expect they will.
Knoblauch also got to watch him practice for six weeks.
Which weeks long stretch during which KK chose not to select him for the line-up are you talking about? There’s more than one.
KK deserves credit for sure for making the change.
The question is if Stecher was healthy – would KK have picked Stecher or Broberg?
Either way – Bro answered the call – very well.
Some credit yes. But whoever spoke up for Broberg deserves more. KK deserves A LOT of credit though for going committee on his decision-making like head office does. Maybe that was just career protection (spread the blame tactic), dunno, but it gives me the same strength of confidence in KK that I have in Holland.
And I should clarify. I’m not putting the win on the roster changes. I don’t ascribe causation to correlation. And we don’t have access to a Monte Carlo of universes to test what the best line-up would have been. It’s possible they would’ve won with any reasonable line-up, because this team usually shows up with their backs to the wall.
But line-up changes can lose you a game and that’s the important thing… that last night, like against Van, they did not.
KK mentioned Coffey. They talked late, slept, touched base in the AM and decision made
He mentioned Coffey in general IIRC, ie the line-up as a whole, but not in regards to any specific player. Also, I can’t see him talking to eleven other people unless he also valued their opinions. Simplifying this is probably not reflective of reality.
— This is a well reasoned post. Collectively it was a big moment for the organization to have made these changes, at the time they did, using whatever data and feedback from their group.
— For sure KK didn’t wake up and make the call alone, so there are different voices than even a year ago : when the same stubborn system wasn’t adjusted
— Id love to be able to discuss with the two cretins who down voted your post. Obviously very low IQ : losers if they worked in an organization with a hierarchy and decision process: to not recognize your insight and take.
I think we have to be careful about what statements we make about the past coaching regime. Woody’s style in pressers was to not talk about such things so we don’t know to what extent he employed a committee or didn’t. Also, if he didn’t look outside his own staff for input, it’s a little more understandable. His knowledge of the minor league system and players was more robust than KK’s is. After all, he gave Bro NINE games of playoff experience over only two series.
It must have been Burger Bob with the final say.
I think this discounts the possibility that Knoblauch himself initiated the conversations about Broberg coming in to the lineup and sought the opinions the the “5 to 12 people” he’ll speak to about decisions.
I am definitely–and intentionally–discounting that possibility.
As I note in the OP it would be a tough ask to believe this scenario… after press boxing him so often the GM was forced to send the player to the minors, and then equally ignoring him again to this point in the playoffs.
I’m a big believer in parsing actions over words and it is pretty clear that going into last night’s game, Broberg did not have the trust and comfort level with KK that he has enjoyed with other members of the organization.
While what you’re stating is possible, that theory does deserve the heavy discounting I’m giving it.
The important point is that, like Holland, KK involves many people in the decision-making process. Over time, this should lead to better outcomes prevailing over poorer ones.
I really like this conversation, as I am interested in effective organizations. Having an established practice to discuss the personnel needs as an example is probably important. Who needs to be in those conversations? This would likely happen at at least two levels. Coaching staff initially, but then also with higher ups too? And the fact that their are open lines of communication is so essential. Noone, or no faction should be an island to themselves.
I’ll disagree that it should be discounted heavily and will note that Holloway was sent down about 5 games after Knoblauch was hired and he was in the process of trying to stop a sinking ship from taking on water.
I don’t know if it was Knoblauch, Gretzky, Coffey, Holland, Chaulk (who is with the team), his wife, Swedish Poster, Shaq or Biznasty that first had the idea brought up for discussion but I certainly think that the head coach has a very good sense of what is needed in his lineup to accomplish implement his idea of how to beat the Stars.
Exactly. Some people are going to great lengths to discredit…..
Love how the players all rallied around Nurse and Skinner. I want Perry’s picture on a t shirt with the caption “I don’t know what you’re talking about “
Totally!
Perry’s response was money.
Perry is now our prick.
Im finding it interesting that we always hear thst +/- is useless… but now that nurse is what? -12? In the playoffs it is worthy of consideration.
My thoughts would be. +/- like any stat is not perfect. It is quite inferior to many others. But when a player is on the top or bottom 5or 10 percentile it should have some value?
All said. I love nurse. Love his physical edge and skating. So was so nice to see him somewhat back in form last night.
Question is. Should we be more accepting of “lesser” stats when we see an extreme and see if there is any value there? Or… is it best to still dismiss and turn to better options?
I come here so much of the advanced stat discussion so im genuinely curious
The media has been parroting this for narrative that +/- is a “useless stat” after years of group think tilted towards the opposite opinion. I don’t think that anyone in the analytics community believes it that black and white.
+/- requires context such as total ice time, who is that player lining up with (WOWY) and against (quality of competition).
There is some element of “luck” in +/- of both the good and bad type. But when a player is 2 standard deviations from the rest of the team in one stat, that almost certainly points to a player who is either succeeding or failing relative to the rest of the team.
Two standard deviation events happen sometimes totally by chance. There is not even a proper sample size.
Election polls properly sampled with 1000 samples. One can get a two standard deviation outcome one time in twenty….i.e. 5% of the time.
How many D are there in the playoffs? It is likely one of them has a two standard deviation outcome in a small sample.
Correct, but why would one be wasting one’s time with +/- in the first place? Unless…
A lot of the argument (not you) seems to be when can I use this stat to hammer a player I don’t like without mitigating the accusatory stat with other stats. It’s two sigmas surely now is the time?
I’ve considered myself a member of that community for twenty years now and I’d say I think of it as largely irrelevant, because it has been replaced by better stats. Sometimes +/- is more readily available, but that’s about the only thing it has going for it.
If you have all the fancies available, you’re never even going to look at someone’s +/-.
And now the teams have fancier stats than our original fancies. +/- only has import in the minds of the media and the public they trained to think that way.
I think its like this: for poeple like me, I see -12! holy crap, lets look under the hood! (so I go read up on Lowetide, but for people who make it their business to keep the engined tuned, whatever I would find under the hood that speaks to that -12, is already known.
The -12 may scream out that we need to do a deeper dive, and who knows what we will find. But there are those who are way beyond the -12. They are already in the middle of the deep dive. For them, the -12 has no purpose.
One has to go through goal by goal like Bieksa did, and when you do that you realize that respect to Nurse the stat does not reflect the reality of his play.
No, one doesn’t have to. One could just look at the PDO number and come up with the same but less granular conclusion.
This is what you’re perceiving to be the right question. But it is not. The right question would be “shouldn’t I look into this deeper, check to see if there’s some important context?”
Shouldn’t I perhaps be spending some time on this page if I was curious about Nurse and the D corps?
Why would one ever overrule the full panoply of stats for one weak, non-contextual, non-individual stat?
I know Darnell’s butt is evens.
LOL. But his feet are not.
The curse of having big feet, I guess.
5v5 goal share is generally currently held to have value, especially over the course of a 16 game playoff run. Here is a deep dive on the Oilers D from Bruce McCurdy using goal share.
5v5 Goal Share is a different stat than NHL plus minus:
“A player is awarded a “plus” each time he is on the ice when his Club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a “minus” if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing Club. The difference in these numbers is considered the player’s “plus-minus” statistic”
While there could be many objectives to an analytic, usually we want to know one of two things: How is the player performing? How might the player perform in the future? We are always looking at the past and projecting into the near or distant future. And usually what we are trying to predict are goals (for, against and share).
We can, of course, look at individual statistics (Goals, Assists, Points, Shots, Attempted shots, etc). But in the case of defensive play those are not helpful as there are no counts of mistakes or errors on the score sheet. So we look at the on-ice stats.
During the era of public analytics from 2006-2016 shot attempts (Corsi) emerged as a consensus metric of prediction initially for teams, then for players as on-ice stats. The basic argument was that Corsi was better than plus minus or goals because of “sample size”. This is because N accumulates more quickly for attempted shots (Corsi) than other measures: its easier for players and teams to collect attempted shots than unblocked attempted shots, shots, expected goals, or goals. Corsi was also treated as a proxy measure for things that could not be measured until 2016, like puck possession.
It was in about 2014, and the “summer of analytics”, that the main stream media started to say that “plus minus was a bad stat”. This was reflecting the opinion of the analytics experts that teams were hiring (Tulsky, Barnes, Dellow etc), who had been saying that their stats and “models” were better because they were more predictive and accumulated statistical power more quickly.
The irony is that now that we have a large data set to measure against (2007-2024) we can look at the actual performance of models such as Corsi, and a few things are obvious. Firstly, the past doesn’t predict the future very well in hockey. Secondly, goal share performs as well or better than most measures after about 10 games.
A lot of analysts currently look to “expected goals” right now as a better model. It’s what the cool kids changed to after Corsi. But if you do a regression analysis expected goals (depending on the model you choose) aren’t better than past models, and in most cases goal share is better. There are some who have presented evidence to the contrary, but every time I look at what they say, I find that they are basically lying. Several respected statisticians with PhDs agree with me, I’ve asked them in person. Don’t believe me, ask one.
I would hope that as the score sheet comes to contain better data through player tracking that a consensus expected goals measure should emerge, and I would hope that that measure would be open and have some predictive value.
The primary reason the cool kids use public expected goals is to make nice art and get nice gigs. Goals aren’t really a model, and that’s what the cool kids are trying to do: model hockey.
My suspicion is that the betting houses already have a better expected goals model that they are not sharing, as they have access to the big data, and there are big dollars on the line. I’ve seen some evidence that this could be the case. There’s a lot of secrecy now and lots of dollars spent by teams and betting houses on trying to make predictions. But I don’t actually know how good those private models are.
In other words, 5v5 shot share, as a plus minus stat, is in fact very valuable to plebs like us, and perhaps is the most valuable public analytic that we have. It’s not a cool model though, and doesn’t make great art.
“In other words, 5v5
shotGOAL share, as a plus minus stat, is in fact very valuable to plebs like us, and perhaps is the most valuable public analytic that we have. It’s not a cool model though, and doesn’t make great art.”Mistake.
I plussed your comment just for the sheer work of even briefly summarizing the history of modern hockey analytics.
I don’t believe you are right on the bookmakers though. Not sure why they would even care. Those who make the elephant wagers might, but not the bookmakers. Their sole concern is to get the public to wager equally on both teams. Finding some predictive win-loss model is at best tangential to that concern.
I think those in-the-know discount the expected goals-for model here. I know I’ve been a voice against it on these pages as have several others (which is different than saying it is useless, I’m not saying that). Twitter might be a different animal, but I’m rarely there so I don’t worry about which cloud they’re barking at this week/month/year.
I note that Bruce, in his “deep dive” completely disregarded PDO. I think that dive lost a lot of nuance there.
Which brings up another problem we’ve never been able to solve with our advanced stats… how much of a goalie’s save percentage does he own… how much of it is owned by the D, and how much of it is owned by the forwards? And that’s a question that demands an answer before we even get to goal share.
At the sports analytics conferences it’s pretty open that working for the casinos is a career path. Just before big data I noticed some in analytics stopping hockey work and going that way. I assume the money’s better. Since big data, the NHL introduced exclusive deals with certain houses and those online casinos introduced in-game betting. The casinos use professional stats guys for certain. What those guys are doing exactly, I don’t know.
https://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/keith-goldner
https://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/bobby-landerman
https://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/dejan-mitkovsk
https://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/jason-robins
https://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/madeleine-want
This is one of the objectives of an expected goals model.
The first effort I recall is Schucker’s Defense Independent Goaltender Rating.
Nurse has received less goal support as he has drifted down to second pairing. His 5v5 McDavid time has dropped from 543:13 minutes in 22-23 when he was plus 23, to 280:34 when he was plus three. This past season and in the playoffs his most common foward is Evander Kane. Nurse doesn’t get the on-ice boost for the heater goals from the 5 man unit.
It’s nice to see some come around to what Godot and I have been saying for months.
I’m not familiar with your stance.
Most of what I outlined above I came to on my own in early 2016 when Sportlogic was launching. It seemed to me that public analytics were becoming obsolete.
My thoughts were reinforced by some posts in the last 18 months from David Johnson who stated some pretty interesting things on Twitter about the difference between public and private analytics after leaving the Flames.
Quite the hammering in the article above, LT, lol. Glad to see you came around to it being unwarranted. Which made for a good set up for your parting thoughts.
After the very late call ups I still thought we’d see Holloway rotate into at least a playoff game, but that Bro would only come in for injury. And here we are.
What I kind of forgot was that Bro had 10 game of playoff experience last year. That experience can be a great motivator and Bro sure looks like he leveraged its hard lessons down on the farm this year.
Both players look like their latest Bakersfield junket has propelled them a step forward
This is true, but where would they be with 82 more NHL games under their belts right now? They were both ready last year by many people’s estimation
It’s not black and white. I would have preferred to have had more cap space and upgrades last summer, instead of being pleasantly surprised that they have stepped up now and are replacing some of those fellas anyways so far pretty well, with far less at bats, and a team not as deep as it could have been
For me the cap implications are the crux of the issue, and having moved on from players with known issues. The extra time in the A didn’t seem to hurt them but I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion it was necessary. It’s also not known yet if there will be fallout that arises post season because of it, that could have big implications
I see this clear as day. Broberg should have been better NHL prepped for playoffs. It was a no brainer. It was short sighted and irresponsible not to have him better prepared.
Show me proof they weren’t best prepped other than an assertion followed by a load of meaningless rhetoric they weren’t.
Explain to me why the way you see it is better than the way Knoblauch sees it.
No player is perfect. So you when it’s time you should choose the players with the most talent. Dallas elevated Stank and use greenhorn Johnston bet they are good
Bro isn’t perfect but he’s the 3rd most talented D on this team if he’s in the NHL. Holloway is easily top 6 over a lot of forwards. You can bet on old players or you can maximize cap and bet on what you have in house. Dallas did. It’s not like these guys were 18 or 19
There is room and need for the vets but how many? Was it dustrock that noticed how slow the team is now? So they ended up needing the skating and talent in the end anyway
Mr Perry is a unique one. Guys like that you can make a spot for. Henrique is very smart, but you already had Ryan. There has to be balance you can’t add 3 old slow forwards at one time, despite their experience, and now they have to juggle
KK seems to have a solid feel, so it’s not necessarily doom and gloom, just not what I see as the best approach especially thinking about the cap
Nvm, misunderstood post I think
Parting thoughts that ironically went way over your head…
My dog likes to nap between my wife and I at night, before he’s put on the floor and finds his way to his own bed.
When I watch hockey on my laptop, laying in bed, I occasionally let out a grunt or a muted cheer.
I’ve always known that these late night exhalations make my wife try to remember why she married me, but I discovered something after game 3 of this series..Regardless of the nature of my hockey noise, our dog Sully seems to interpret it as a threat directed straight at him. He immediately stands up, warily eyes me, and slinks across the bed onto his safe space perch on top of my sleeping wife.
I’m considering a Pavlovian approach to this situation. I figure if I keep some treats in my nightstand I can sneak him one whenever my bed/hockey noise is the result of a Oilers goal. Hopefully this will teach him to more appreciate the beauty of hockey and the importance of strong teamwork. Best case scenario, I have a little canine companion to share the Oilers with. Worst case scenario, I sleep on dog treat crumbs.
My poodle does the same thing … under no other circumstance does he show any kind of concern for how I’m feeling in other context. But whenever I watch hockey with him, he stands up, warily eyes me and places his paw on my lap, then tries to block my view of the TV, and I end up with a 70 lb poodle perched on my lap. Doesn’t matter if the Oilers are winning or losing. Doesn’t do it when I watch other sports.
Some questions for you local Edmonton folks and regulars at Rogers…
I said YOLO this morning and bought tickets to Game 6 on Sunday. My wife and I will be driving up from Calgary. Any recommendations on food near the arena? Drinks? Pre-game things to do?
For food we’re not fancy, typically prefer unique hole in the wall type places as opposed to your Joey’s or Milestones type places. Also not looking to get sloppy pre-game.
This will be our first time at the new barn. So pumped.
Closer to Rogers, for appetizers and cocktails: Baijou. Right next door to Baijou is a good place for Tapas called El Jardin.
For cocktails and asian street food: Fu’s Repair Shop or Dorinku
Bit further down the strip (about a 5 minute drive from Rogers), in the Brewery District is a mexican place called Anejo. They have good cocktails and food. Might have a rooftop patio? Brewery district also has some other places to eat as well which are good, but their names escape me.
Disclaimer: I have no clue how available or busy these places are on game days
I appreciate it! I’ll do some Googling as well.
Honestly, Edmonton has a surprisingly good food scene. If there’s a particular kind of food you are looking for and the place has good reviews, you likely will not be disappointed.
Campio Brewing company on 105st. Fantastic deep dish pizza.
Baiju is good but 2nd Campio for game day. Fits the game day atmosphere of good beer and pizza. Wherever you go try to see if you can make a reso or show up early. Earlier than what you think is early enough
Oriental Noodle House on 107ave and a 101st has the best beef with satay soup with imperial rolls you’ll ever encounter.
Its interesting to me that the Oilers have a legitimate controversy over who to have in the lineup, all of whom have been proven players in the off season, while the “deeper” Stars will struggle to ice a full D corps next game if Tanev is out.
Good problems to have.
I’d keep Broberg in and rotate Ceci out personally.
Nurse directly was the reason for the 1st and 3rd goals. He was also face-washing players, carrying the puck and joining in the rush. Where has this been? Why has he been playing a passive game this playoff? Is it injury? Is it coaching? Does he feel Bouchard and Ekholm are the offensive juggernauts and because of this he’s consciously staying home more guarding home plate.
Gun shy after the suspension last year?
I think the change in defensive structure was hard for Nurse. He’s aggressive, he plays the game by feel and he has the athleticism to get back. But that doesn’t work as well in a zone setup. If you chase multiple guys will be open.
So he hung back. He throttled himself a bit and I think that had a cost on his confidence.
Many people talking about this….physical Nurse is a good Nurse.
He deserves tons of credit -for a strong game in the face of adversity and critics.
I hope this isn’t a one off. If he can harness his anger like last night it changes our whole dynamic on the backend. One of our D needs to get in Benn’s kitchen I’ll guarantee you he’ll snap and we’ll get a 5 minute PP.
Seeing pictures on twitter of Tanev in a boot (might be legit, its definitely the starbucks/booster juice at the US Terminal at EIA).
Also seeing pictures of frame by frame that look like the shot didnt hit the main part of the skate but might have landed above? If so more likely an ankle injury which would be way worse for Tanev.
Who knows until tomorrow though! Wish him the best but that is a huge blow to the Stars if he cant play.
I’m not trying to be Captain Obvious but a Tanev injury could really put the Dallas D in a precarious position. Oilers need to exploit the extra minutes Suter and Petrovic will recieve.
If Tanev has to miss time, does this make Petrovic their best RHD? I think everyone else is left-handed.
It will be interesting to see how they will line up if Tanev misses some time. Lundkvist & Petrovic will be their only RHD available to go along with Heiskanen, Lindell, Harley & Suter all LHD. I’m sure they will make the proper adjustments. Whatever that may be?
Crazy that Lundkvist is averaging 4:30 a game. Playoffs high of 10 minutes in the vegas series then consecutive games of 2:30 and 1:30. If Tanev can even MAYBE play I think hes in, they trust him on one leg more than Lundkvist obviously.
Whether that is a good move or not is another topic. I wouldnt want to have hyman kane holloway in the corner with me with a broken foot/ankle/leg.
For how deep theyre supposed to be, definitely yes. Which is sad considering he hasnt played in the NHL since he was on the oilers.
While Heiskanen is not right handed, he’s played RD pretty much his entire career.
I would imagine Dallas would insert Nils Lundqvuist into the lineup if Tanev can’t play but that’s a serious downgrade.
I bet he plays next game. Foot/ankle probably just swollen as heck but not necessarily broken/sprained. Especially while flying, the air boot can help manage the swelling while flying.
I bet he plays but there is a world of a difference between a foot injury and ankle. Especially for mobility. Foot you lock into the skate but ankle even if he does play could really limit him.
Does an ankle swell up if its not broken or sprained? (I don’t know why I thought this, but I thought the sprain was the thing that caused serious swelling). I’m no health practitioner though.
I imagine Tanev will be hopped up on painkillers and will play.
But I have a feeling it will be one of those situations where it may be best for Dallas if he doesn’t play.
Doesn’t seem ideal to have a defenseman who possibly has a broken or fractured or sprained foot that is playing against a fast team like the Oilers.
I’m fine with it.
Bobby Clarke would give Tanev a nice little subtle 2 hander to his ankle when the Refs weren’t looking.
When I did the Power Wins I believe in one of the first I didn’t think Dallas was a tight defensive team or that dominant based on the concept, had a lot of one goal games
Their strength and their success comes from staying in games and not quitting. And that they have a lot of players that can score on their opportunities
Yesterday after the gimmies was how to play them, hard and tight and attack the net directly and first before heading to the cycle. Loved the killer instinct
DeBoer saying they think it’s their time to me means more of yesterday might well rattle them
Wonderful game last night. The Oilers kept their composure after the rough start and cuter some blatant missed calls (again). Just can’t say enough good things about this team, except for WTH McDavid being stymied by a floating goal stick (I kid).
I am wondering though, do KK’s line-up moves still reek as desperation as was claimed?
Hockey is a funny sport. If that puck doesn’t bounce right to Brown on the PK, the conclusions on KK’s lineup decisions might sound a lot different today.
Maybe try giving Brown some credit for being in the right spot at the right moment, not to mention the execution that he and Janmark displayed while scoring the game winning goal.
He absolutely deserves credit, everything about his play on that goal was flawless. I only meant that in a game of bounces, that puck could’ve gone in the corner instead, and then who knows what happens. It was more of a commentary on how thin the margins are for a coach being ridiculed or praised for his decisions.
In the exact same thought, if Stankoven’s shot doesn’t bounce off Nurse and into the net, KK’s lineup decisions might even be more celebrated today.
That was an amazing save. McDavid needed to roof it.
The McLeod goal was unexpected and changed the script. If Hintz hits the top corner on the breakaway I hate to think how ugly it could of gotten.
Interesting silence from those who called the moves a “reek of desperation”
One of the things Coach K has going for him is that he’s coaching a team who’s been to hell and back. This isn’t to diminish his role, he’s made marvelous moves, but he’s coaching a group that’s been together for a few years, one that cares about each other and is willing to battle for each other.
That gives you some flexibility, it allows you to take risks, it allows your leadership core to assuage concerns or egos should they arise. It allows you to have the benefit of the doubt when sticky decisions have to be made. He has a great feel for his team and his team has bought into what he’s selling. Its a veteran team now.
With the first four games in the books you can see why I liked this matchup for the Oilers so much. Dallas doesn’t play the same sort of “shell,” system that Vegas did last year or the Canucks did last round. A shell team allows you to hammer away at them. They only take chances when you let your guard down. It can be effective if you have a hot goalie and its immensely frustrating for the oppo if that goalie is dialed in.
Dallas plays looser than that. Their defense is younger, smaller and more willing to take offensive risks. Their forwards aren’t the greatest defensively either. That doesn’t mean they can’t dial it up for a shift, but they aren’t always selling out for defense either. Skill players being skilled. Its like the late 1980s.
To quote Dom from last night (amending an earlier tweet) “this series is cool because its the Oilers and Stars just taking period-long turns completely annihilating each other.”
This is a very fun series. Whoever moves on will face a similar system against either the Rags or the Cats. This is the type of hockey we should all want to see. Its exciting, its fun, and its back and forth. THIS is good for the game and I have no doubt Gary and his team will be pointing this out to the BoG in the offseason.
All Gary and his team are worried about is a Canadian team winning the cup.
Ryan has been playing like a demon but with Henrique looking healthy I would rest him for a game and insert a hungry Foegele.
I’m very sympathetic to the idea if only to keep Ryan fresh. I think Coach loves Ryan for his handedness though. Needs him as a RH faceoff man for PKs and dzone draws. Dallas has had an edge on faceoffs at home in particular and not having that option would be a bridge too far.
It sorta pains me to say it but if you’re looking to sub out someone at this moment I think its going to be Holloway. Now I don’t think he’s played bad. But with the switcharoo that Coach K pulled off last game I think Hollywood and Foegele is your natural swap there.
We read/heard about the depth of the Dallas team.
What about the depth of the Oilers team? The bottom six has been positively impactful in every game of the series. Yes, the third line has been some wobble but this team has healthy scratched a former 50-goal scorer and Hart Trophy winner, a forward that scored 20 goals this season and is good on the PK, and a developing 3C/2LW that has high end defensive skills and elite skating – not to mention a high end PK d-man.
Is the Oilers depth at forward more substantial than the Stars at this point? I mean, Is Joe Pavelski playing? Was Tyler Seguin any better than Mattias Janmark last night?
The Oilers healthy scratched a strong PK d-man that played almost every game last year. The Stars might have to play, in addition to the Alex Petrovic, who had one NHL game in the last 4 season prior to two weeks ago, a d-man who they didn’t trust to play even 4:30 per game for the first two rounds – both those guys.
Right now, the Oilers depth over Dallas is prominent, no?
I pointed this out to start the series…..Pavelski and others are not moving the needle.
And the depth of the Stars D is a problem. Hoping Heiskanen is getting worn down.
I keep hoping we -Absolutely – wreck Petrovic.
But so far…he has kind of held his own. I assume Lundkvist draws in if Tanev is hurt.
Petro has played 5 games: ( granted limited, sheltered minutes)
CF 52.5%
SF 52.8
GF 2 / GA 1
DeBoer threw on his dblender in Game 3 (a bit in game 2 but came back to it).
He swapped Harley and Lindell. Added Harley to Tanev for some speed and for outlets. Sent Lindell over to Heiskanen to help with the defensive side of things. Tanev was getting rocked this series in the GA department and Heiskanen has had troubling breaking the ozone pressure from McD.
Smart coach but I’m not sure he has the horses on the backend for the Oilers depth…
Philip Broberg (11) almost has as many playoff games as Klefbom (16). Wild thought for the day. Also, Klefbom is only 30. What a loss.
Oil back from the dead once again, and I feel alive! Wooooo
Oilers have 1 or more cups already if his shoulder doesn’t turn into dust. A true #1 D man making $4 million for 7 years would’ve been insane value that even KH couldn’t mess up.
Klef wasn’t a true #1D, didn’t have the offensive chops. He was a #2 or #3 on a championship squad….he would have slotted behind Ekholm and Bouch on today’s roster…not saying he wouldn’t have been immensely valuable but I don’t like revisionist history.
Do they even go get Ekholm if Klef is on the roster?
Would probably stop the Nurse contract too.
It wouldn’t have shook out this way, but:
Ek-Bouch
Klef-Lars
Nurse-Desh/Kulak/Bro
Is championship quality, multiple championship quality.
Klefbom wasc captain and voted the #1D in the WJHC on the only Swedish junior team to win and not choke in the finals.
The #1D in the WJHC has a pretty strong correlation with being a legit first pair NHL defensemen.
The loss of Kelfbom and Larsson with no assets in return as well as fantastic cap hits would set any franchise back for years.
^ this, all day.
One of my pet peeves is LT and Others looking at the Nurse-Keith situation and refusing to add the massive contextual piece of losing two Swedes in their PRIME for zilch in the 9 months before. Very frustrating.
Yup, Holland has done well to get the wagon through some pretty rough road
These playoffs have been the best stretch of his career as an Oiler.
He’s really really solid out there and is making positive impactful plays with the puck. Of course, the PK work – wow!
I think his injuries in last year’s playoffs hurt the team more than we realized at the time.
Final side rant of playoffs (sorry for any annoyance LT. Not bitter tasting beers everything’s sweet just busy working in west virginia after 4 years of crisis life…busy)
Was just chatting in bud group about bieska slamming yeg local sports pundits.
My distaste for click baiter troll of the decade connected squarely to home run type hit…I think at least some if this rag tag band of merry mainly men might enjoy.
Gist is yeah someday soon local troll X surely going to be exited off property. Just a few more:
“So draisaitl. Do you think maybe if you scored more than they did a couple games in a row no one would be talking about you looking like you’re choking again?”
To go…if there is a hockey gord.
La Bamba baby 1 more, than hopefully only 2 more at home needed to Stanley tool these boys!
Btw, since I had to go hunting for it, here’s the clip from Bieksa on the Edmonton Media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wP1AiFpwviQ
The best 52 minutes the Oilers have played all season. Keep this roller coaster on the rails.
Two more wins, one on the road & one at home. Oh, La La, La Bamba.
There was some strong criticism of coach prior to the game for saddling Leon with two wingers with a combined zero points in the playoffs. A reasonable position but, as it turns out, the ballsy move by the coach was, again, the “right move”. McLeod to the wing, taking some responsibility off him and Leon with a speedster which he has had success with before – way to go coach and way to go players.
I agree that Leon was great overall except a 5-minute stretch early in the 2nd where he had consecutive shifts with high risk/low reward plays (I think 3) – no harm done but that’s not always the case – he was exceptional for the rest of the game.
A day ago I had floated pairing Leon with McLeod, citing past playoff success…mitigated only by the fact that Holloway seemed to have earned that spot. Glad it worked out.
Maybe Holloway can develop into the 3C that McLeod doesn’t quite seem able to?
(You’d think with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/McLeod/Holloway, we shouldn’t have a shortage at 3C.)
The only trouble is, what do you do with Kane? We have too many good left wingers, which I guess is a good problem to have. Is it really out of the question to play Nuge as 3C, especially if Kane/McLeod/Holloway are fine LWs? Kane shot the lights out two years ago as McDavid’s LW, and Nuge has never really been an elite 5X5 guy anyways.
Kane-McD-Hyman
McLeod-Leon-X
Holloway-RNH-X
There is mounting evidence that MAYBE McLeod is better suited to the wing. I’m still not convinced given his high end transition abilities and his high end defensive abilities – both center position type skills.
At the same time, as you note, Holloway could fill that 3C spot if McLeod is on the win but, at the same time, Holloway’s current style of play seems best suited to the wing as he’s becoming a high banger/crasher “first on the forecheck” type of player. I’m not sure we don’t want him to evolve his game (i’m not sure he’ll stay healthy playing this style) but, his current game, is power forward/winger, right?
Henrique can center the third line and Carrick & Ryan can center the fourth line. Again, it’s a testament to the Oilers forward depth. It doesn’t hurt that (MacLeod, Holloway, Henrique, Carrick & Ryan) all play center or wing.
Yeah, good points all.
We have a Connor Brown Heater.
My goodness is Evan Bouchard not an elite d-man in this league.
Even with the entire team coming out flat for the first 8 minutes, Evan Bouchard was magnificent that period. He touches the puck so many times every shift and he just makes play after play after play, in all three zones.
He controlled the pace and flow of play like few can do (Makar and, maybe Fox, not even Hughes) to the extent that peak Erik Karlsson did (different styles, of course).
Yes, he’s going to get paid BUT for this year AND NEXT he may be the best value contract in the league
We saw Brown’s play improve through the season and was quite good heading into the playoffs, just missing some scoring. Some of us mentioned this good play, while others only wanted to talk about the missing scoring. Fantastic to see Brown hitting the score sheet to add to his all-around game.
For a presumptive Norris winner, I sure wasn’t impressed by Hughes against us. Not as good as Bouchard and nowhere close to Makar. Maybe he earned his Norris based on regular season play, but he looked underwhelming to me in the playoffs.
I agree but, if I’m being honest, the speculation that Hughes was quite banged up is likely a big factor.
No doubt Bouch outplayed Hughes in that series, shit, Bouchard may be the best player in the entire playoffs through 2.5 series. Even if Hughes was at the top of him game, I think Bouch is right there with his current play, in fact, maybe even more impactful (that’s tough to say, I’d need to watch Hughes at the top of his game nightly, which I haven’t).
I am not sure previous versions of this team – would have been so calm and cool – going down 2-0 on home ice like that…..
Our players are more mature now + Perry, Ekholm…?
Either way, their composure was incredible.
( mine was not in the 1st period)
Not a big Broberg fan – at all.
But that was a very clean, smooth. game from him. One where his skating and getting to pucks – mattered.
Well done young man.
I can’t stress enough how impressed I am with Knoblauch. The stones to start Pickard was one thing, but the lineup changes (or lack of changes in Skinner’s case) have been very gutsy even for a veteran coach.
I thought dressing Broberg was a panic move when it was announced, but here we are at 2-2.
The tactical brilliance was spectacular. After two 2 goals leads and then the fake Texans scoring a few and stealing what’s ours, KK goes to spotting them 2 and kicking butt. Psy Ops
I’m kidding of course. When they out it together that is one juggernaut man. Love it
Bro was really good I thought. Has to stay in until he can’t. I like that KK usually rewards a winning line up
ha ha KK Ultra
I love elevated conversation, I love ideas thrown and caught and thrown back again.
Bit of a poet yourself, LT. This place is a treasure.
Oilers must be feeling good after putting in 5 against Norris Heiskanen, Vezina Oettinger, and Canada’s Darling and Master Shutdown Defenseman Tanev.
I don’t believe Heiskanen has ever been nominated for the Norris.
He doesn’t get much respect from the Norris voters.
Fox and Lindgren are allegedly already pretty beat up for the Rangers.
Definitely the matchup the Oilers want if we can pull this series out. Fingers crossed.
A glance at last year’s SCF tells you all you need to know about playing an injured team in the finals…
True, because Florida looks dominant against the Rangers. Plus Oilers-Rangers are two classic teams. By contrast, Florida is a place where the climate literally prevents you from playing the sport outdoors. And the Canadian snowbirds that prop up regular season attendance are long gone by this time of year.
But LT, Leonard Cohen also said “You want it darker – we kill the flame”. 😉
surely he meant to say We kill the Flames.
Beautifully said, LT. More poetic, empathetic discourse, please. With regards to the series, as Elliot Friedman said, “As soon as you think you know what’s happening, it’s not.” (I quote loosely.”
The window is officially open. I remember in 1991, loosing to the North Stars 4-1 in conference finals. The Oilers were good but there was another level to be a contender, the Oilers weren’t there and Stanley was not possible; the run was over. 1992 and a 4-0 loss to Chicago confirmed it. 2006 was the only real contender since and CFP was an essential piece. This is the first time we have been in contender territory since 1990 aside from 2006 but we are here! Woohoo!
I was astonished by the 1991 loss to Minnesota. Still am. How on earth did they do it? How did a team led by Dave Gagner, Mark Tinordi, and Jon Casey beat out a team led by Mark Messier, Kevin Lowe, and Grant Fuhr? Paging historian Bruce McCurdy.
It also denied us the deserved Edmonton-Pittsburgh final, even if Gretzky was gone by then. I could have handled losing to Mario Lemieux. But to Dave Gagner?
4 Games. 13 Periods. The series is 2-2. Edm one POWER WIN.
5v5 Goals. 10-10 Evem.
PP Goals. 0-0 (9-6 Opportunities Dal).
EN Goals. 2-1 Dal.
SH Goals. 1-0 Edm.
Dal 5v5 Goal scorers: Robertson (3), Seguin (2), Benn (1), Marchment (1), Johnston (2), Lindell (1).
Edm 5v5 Goal scorers: McDavid (2), Hyman (2), Brown (1), Draisaitl (2), Henrique (1), McLeod (1), Janmark (1), Bouchard (1).
Dal EN Goals: Lindell (1), Heiskanen (1).
Edm EN Goal: Ekholm (1).
Forward goal scoreers: 7-5 Edm.
DMen goal scorers (not including EN): 1-1.
With injuries and lineup changes by both coaches it is tough to perfectly distinguish top and bottom 6 forwards. The Oilers have now used 21 skaters to Dallas’ 19 in this series.
If Tanev is actually unable to go (hard to say with a hockey player that dedicated), the forwards need to absolutely lay into Heiskanen and Lindell. Make their 30+ minutes feel like a boxing match instead of a game of rubber chasing. We wait.
Last night I was thinking wow what a masterful stroke by KK, Nurse breaks the puck out, dishes to Perry, Nurse drives the net, Perry shoots, McLeod cleans up the garbage and puts it top shelf. KK believe in second chances and has it ever worked… now I just spew the words out but LT he makes it beautiful, the Poet amongst us. Where are the Haikus?
Nurse drives the net and induces Lindell to take out Oettinger.
Early misfortune
soon turns to hometown delight.
Sh*tburgers for all!
Figure out what you are good at and do it well.
Darnell Nurse skates well, rushes the puck well and he is excellent at being mean ,,, MORE PLEASE
Last Night Nurse did what he does well, very well and that is a good thing.
How loud did everyone yell when the shorty went in?? Lol. Haven’t yelled that loud since 2022 when McDavid scored on Calgary round 2.
Buddy had a dB meter – 106.
From the Googs: Boeing 707 or DC-8 aircraft at one nautical mile (6080 ft) before landing (106 dB); jet flyover at 1000 feet (103 dB); Bell J-2A helicopter at 100 ft (100 dB).
I actually think it might have been louder when Draisaitl scored shortly after. Crowd was still cheering from the Janmark goal and then it was built ontop of that. Pure unbridled energy from everyone there. Surprised my voice isn’t way more hoarse today.
I enjoyed the comments last night.
Was peotic for sure. Total gloom and then rising from the ashes like a Phoenix….
I get as down as many. But with my 13 and 11 year old watching I have to have a more measured approach. Which actually has been good for my mental health!
There was a lot more hate and anger than there was gloom. That’s LT’s point, I believe.
With the game Broberg and perry played, how do you take them out?
Foegle back in for? Ryan? Holloway has been solid…
Do you rotate ceci out for a game for Desh?
Good problem to have. Seems most guys who have sat have come in refreshed. So tempted to get Foegle back in. But no way janmark or brown come out…
I cant really fine a way to get foegle back. If you take ryan out mcleod needs to move back to centre unless carrick draws in. If carrick is in someone else is out.
I guess holloway out for foegle might happen but i wouldnt do that.
Thoughts?
I’d give Ryan a rest, because like Perry, I think the older guys benefit a lot from the extra day of rest.
Why rush Foegle back? Other changes came after losses, I’d expect minimal changes after that game against same opponent.
Can’t have both Carrick and Ryan out I don’t think – need at least one right shot faceoff guy.
Deharnais will get back in at some point but Ceci had a strong game beside Broberg last night – I don’t think that change is now.
No chance Holloway comes out I don’t think – he is the most aggressive forechecker on the team right now.
The Oilers controlled the play for 52 minutes last night – that was their most complete game of the playoffs – I think you run it back again.
I now know why Lowetide always says don’t trade your young players. I didn’t realize the Expos traded Randy Johnson early in his career only for him to become the greatest left hand pitcher of all time. Yikes. Just saw a documentary on him last night.
Wasn’t Sandy Koufax a left handed pitcher?
Should say one of the best left handers of all time
Peak vs. longevity.
Why do you hate Al Hrabosky ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂
[This will likely get caught in the filter but I hope LT reads and approves it if it makes him chuckle]
I can’t take credit for this because I found it on the internet, but maybe the single most remarkable thing about Randy “The Big Unit” Johnson is that his name, in other words, is Horny “The Big Penis” Penis.
So far our playoff MVP is whatever was done to the pk. I’d be very curious to know how it went from liability to strength