One of the fascinating things about writing an Oilers blog is observing the self assuredness of fans. I write everything down and because of it have a track record of predictions wrong and right. Not everyone writes things down and that allows for chaos and no real conclusions beyond “I’m right, you’re wrong” and that got very boring about Grade 4. What shall we do?
Every few months someone I’ve been in contact with for decades will pop in to my dm’s on twitter and express frustration with my positivity toward Oilers general manager Ken Holland. I tell them what I tell you every day: The idea of this blog is to draw conclusions that do not have emotions attached.
So, we get some counter trey statements. These two sentences are true: Holland should have received a first-round pick and Duncan Keith for Caleb Jones, with the Chicago Blackhawks retaining at least a little of the money. Holland made an incredible deal in acquiring Mattias Ekholm.
How we weigh those two sentences is basically the state of Oilers fans online today. There is no middle ground, which makes things very boring for me. One on side are the bullies (“I can’t believe how stupid you are, apologist, addle minded dickhead!”) and on the other we have the goody two shoes (“Holland has never made a bad move, don’t know why you carry on this way”) and I’m looking for the middle. That’s where, in my opinion, the truth lies.
Has Ken Holland earned another contract with the Edmonton Oilers? I don’t believe so. Should he receive credit for getting this roster to within an eyelash of a Stanley Cup? Yes. Yes he should. Both of those things can be true, and we can discuss them, without name calling and outrageous verbal tirades.
I think it comes down to Oilers fans believing in the new math, and the Oilers believing in doing it the way it’s always been done. One is the tip of the spear, the other is a 1975 furniture store.
Here’s the breaking news: The 1975 furniture store, I believe, is mostly gone now. We’ll have to see how the Bakersfield Condors develop players next season, but the NHL roster rattles and hums with goodness. If the team can find a way to bring back Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown, Adam Henrique and Vincent Desharnais without breaking the bank, I think this club could be in the SCF again next season.
Here’s the breaking news for the ‘tip of the spear’ brigade: You better be right. The analytics dogma that is being preached online currently comes with the most noxious attitude in hockey history. I’m thrilled Eric Tulsky is the general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes. I’m hopeful Tyler Dellow will become GM of the New Jersey Devils, Tim Barnes will become GM of the Washington Capitals, Rob Vollman will become GM of the Los Angeles Kings and Michael Parkatti will become GM of the Edmonton Oilers.
Here’s the thing: With each of those men, should it come to pass, the line in the sand for evaluation should be the same as it is for Ken Holland. I’m not sure every corner of the internet will treat the Tulsky era fairly and that’s a shame. It’s also a shame that the Holland era in Edmonton has been framed in some circles as all bad. It simply isn’t true.
You know, Tulsky was part of the Hurricanes when the club dealt Warren Foegele for Ethan Bear. I felt, and I wrote, that Holland didn’t get full value for a unicorn (RH defense) when acquiring a middle-six winger. As things turned out, Holland won that trade. I was right about Bear’s value, but the deal was a loss for Tulsky’s side.
If Tulsky makes a deal and loses the trade in the fullness of time, it’s completely possible to criticize it without calling for his firing. I think those humans who represent the tip of the spear would consider that good form. I believe it will be very difficult for the Lords of Math to call foul if the Eye Test Jets hammer the Hurricanes for sins real of imagined. There can be no claim of high moral ground from the Mathletes. That portion of earth was abandoned long ago. The Sharks will be out for blood from go. That applies to Tulsky and all who follow. Godspeed, Tulsky, I’m cheering like hell for you.
Lowdown hits the air at noon today, Sports 1440, with two hours of fun and frolic. We have some time before the big game to discuss it, so Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will pop by and we’ll have some other folks, too. It’s a time for you to be heard, so don’t hesitate to reach out. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
In a YOLO moment I bought two tickets to the game for my soon to be 18 year old son and I. He’s off to University in the fall so this really is a one-and-only opportunity. We leave from Halifax in a couple of hours. I have visions…dreams really…of slamming Bud Lights with Connor Brown at an Oilers post game party.
Anyone have any insight on the Oilers scene in Florida or even where to pregame?
Whatever happens tonight, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the journey that has been the 2023/2024 season…can’t believe a few months ago people were declaring the McDrai era over. Hopefully we’ve got another W up our sleeves tonight.
PLD trade proves anything is possible to me.
Whoever gets the next year or two shoukd be in good shape as long as they grab their shine box and go to work properly.
My orders of business:
Campbell probably walked (fundamentals over athletics this club is good enough not to need everyday heroes type tenders just can’t burn games on absolute zeroes type nights).
Kane shuffled off. His defence isn’t going to get any better and his offense/health will continue declining.
power forwards:
Love em just don’t own them after best before dates, at full boat price tags.
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So let me try understand this. It’s the night before G6 of the SCF and people are trashing the GM who made the playoffs each of his 5 years at the helm (lost in R1 twice, lost in R2 once, made the WC final twice and SCF finals once). GM not good enough because he had McDavid which is the lamest, most unprovable position ever. Sad to see this type of pointless negativity at such a happy occasion. Kind of like talking about divorce rates at a wedding ceremony. Fun crowd. Do try enjoy the moment for your own mental health.
There is the BECAUSE of Holland part of the story.
And there is the IN SPITE of Holland part of the story.
Both are true.
Holland had to pick up the pieces after Chiarelli and with very little room to manoeuvre. He has made the team better every year.
Campbell was a big mistake, but then Hyman and Ekholm were huge wins. He has made far more good decisions than bad ones and is record is strong on the big calls (including Woody in, Woody out and Knobby in).
And if you think it’s all because of the gift of McDavid how do you feel about Chiarelli having McDavid on his ELC for 3 years and a very cheap Draisatl? It is mind blowing that we couldn’t put out a better team in Year 3 of McDavid’s ELC…
Your last paragraph hits it. Holland wasn’t as bad as PC but while some are content others see another that couldn’t get them high enough. The mess was there, didn’t take Zito 5 years to get to 2 finals with no all time greats on his team
Da-aaad, are we there yet???
Connor McDavid you watch like your life depends on it.
Just ask Florida, led by ex Flames stalwarts Ka-Mouthpiece and can’t do a pull-up Bennett. They will be pumped for info about the team that drove him literally out of Calgary. No way was he going to want to be stuck on a second rate team facing the juggernaut up Highway 2.
Come to think of it, this reads like a hockey horror movie story: Matthew, runs as far away as possible from his arch nemesis Edmonton Oilers only to face them in the Finals but with a 3-0 lead. Now, followed with a pair of kickings to remind them that the series isn’t yet over.
Anyone else Nervous? Excited?
Thumbs down if Nervous.
Thumbs up if Excited.
make a quick comment if both 🙂
It won’t let me press both.
I would say mostly nervous.
I lost all hope after game three.
I now have a sliver of hope again.
I have been binging pepto since game 5.
Yes
I’m more just tired of waiting so long between games.
Not sure I catch what you’re saying. There are plenty of open source LLMs that are being trained by common folk.
I absolutely could train an existing open source model on the blog data with little to no resources only time.
If you mean the government/corporations are going to tighten the grips on future AI development, it’s certain they will have more resources to be ahead of the curve, but as Open AI and google have learned, mass open source piggybacking quickly duplicate their innovations at pennies on the dollar. It’s a race to zero for them.
AI is going to quickly become a basic human commodity as ubiquitous as electricity, mainly because any country that doesn’t adopt an open and free AI revolution will get left behind in the dust on the global market. Imagine if government took strict control of the steam engine.
AI is an energy hog. Nuclear energy is back baby! (And oil and natural gas ain’t dead yet). Can’t run AI on windmills.
The big bottleneck resource in AI isn’t so much the power requirements, it’s the computational resources. Both are intertwined somewhat I guess, but large corporations won’t face power issues at the magnitude they’re facing computational availability
I wonder about that. I’m a professional mathematician and more often than not, the problem is finding a way to turn a problem into something computable, than anything else. I have people offering me free time on the Amazon cloud, but the problem is I often can’t reduce problems to something the Amazon Cloud can handle, and even if I can, often my code isn’t something that’s readily compilable for the Amazon cloud. I suspect a lot of AI will eventually have the same kinds of problems. There’s certain “standard apps” for this generation of AI, but more often than not people will simply be doing “more of the same” rather than really doing interesting or useful things.
I don’t know anyone that designs nuclear power generators but I imagine a concerning issue in the initial design is ensuring there’s enough cooling available. Rivers going dry for weeks at a time is becoming more of a problem, with less glacier volume up-stream. Putting generators beside the ocean brings another form of danger, as in Tohoku.
molten salt reactors.
As far as I know these don’t exist. Cold fusion, small modular, laser fusion, toroidal fusion, etc, they’re all ideas in various stages of development but not production-ready.
The obstacle to nuclear energy (fission) is not technological, it is political.
The AI tech bros know they need nuclear now. The political obstacles in the developed world will quickly fade away.
Solar energy is the leading source of new electricity generation capacity, globally, and has been for nearly ten years. By far, recently.
Oil is likely on the way out too: Ferrari of all companies, in a recent interview, believes that by 2030, only one-in-five of its new automobiles sold will be internal combustion engine powered.
So AI only in the daytime. I don’t think so.
There is going to be a lot of solar, but it is still just going to be a small fraction of global energy usage. Solar has yet to make a significant increase in its share of global energy use.
Many countries in the global south are just on the cusp of the energy usage hockey stick. They have gone from bicycles to e-bike and motorbikes, and China is now producing $12K EV and ICE vehicles for these markets. These markets are not going to predominantly use solar and wind for electricity production. Until nuclear ramps up, it will be coal, oil, and natural gas.
The US, Europe, and Canada are going to deny us access to these $12K vehicles. So, apparently the climate crisis is not really a climate crisis if the developed world is going to block $12K EV’s. And try to transition with expensive EV’s.
Canada has made a foolish $100 billion dollar bet on trying to create an EV industry requiring 100-200% tariffs for the indefinite future.
Get real, solar PV is only a component, and fast-growing one at that, of Canada’s and other country grids. Our system, and that of most/all countries, is part of an integrated portfolio of different sources, that’s only going to diversify, especially as electricity storage systems evolve.
Nuclear will always play a role, but there is a reason why countries are betting moreso on renewables than nuclear, predominantly cost. Eighty-six per cent of all electricity capacity added to the world last year was renewable. Nothing is going to change these economic forces.
To go back to your oriignal point:”can’t run AI on windmills.” There aren’t many/any one power source grids in the world, so it’s a moot point since current and future grids will have an array of sources, and will predominantly be renewable. And, a computer doesn’t care when it works – when energy is abundant (e.g., peak wind and solar generating hours, or hydro dam capacity full), you let those babies rip. When power is expensive, you ramp back.
Pierre LeBrun on Overdrive today (paraphrased by moi):
“I spoke to Steven Stamkos about Connor McDavid. Stamkos said he trained with Connor over the summer and Connor spent a fair bit of time quizzing him about the TB runs. What it took to get it done, how to handle different situations etc. Stamkos said that coming into the season, he had a feeling Connor was ready…”
Great to hear things like this. Can’t say I’m surprised though.Extroardinary people have extraordinary minds and dedication.
An old friend of mine was doing his PhD in robotics, 4 months before graduating with his doctorate he started a company, dedicated himself to reverse engineering team building and sales for his new company. 15 years later they sold the company for nearly 3 billion.
Crazy stuff!
Yes they do. His on ice play aside, publicly, McDavid looks and sounds more evolved as a leader this season, at least to my eyes/ears. Much more assertive, eloquent and confident in dealing with the press. His “I’ll take that…” moment defending Stuey from criticism was most excellent.
This is hilarious to me. Connor McDavid has been doing Connor McDavid things for quite some time now:
https://x.com/Morgan_C_Ross/status/1802075197719159001
I get the mistakes Holland has made for sure. But when I read the criticism some justified some not you’d think these were the Chiarelli Oilers and we just turned Eberle into Spooner. The reality is we’re playing game 6 in the Stanley Cup Final and some would make you think we missed the playoffs. It’s not a fluke. Some good managing happened along the way. I’ll just enjoy the ride.
Holland has done nothing as close to egregious as giving away Barzal/Eriksson-Ek for magic beans.
Part of the verbiage from Holland detractors is that McDavid has been here for 9 years and this is the Oilers first trip to the SCF, dammit we should have 3 cups by now with McDrai.
When he took over or shortly thereafter, the wingers had been decimated, Hall and Eberle gone. Two of their top defensemen gone through no fault of Holland, Klefbom injury and Larsson personal reasons. A goalie had been signed at what may have been a bit of an overpay. What should have been a very strong youth movement, set up by McT, had been decimated to get Griffin Reihart. Covid happened which hit all teams but it hit cap teams the hardest.
So to say the Holland should have three cups by now because McDrai is ignoring that the first four years of McDrai were Chiarelli, who many do not consider the best GM ever. It ignores that in early Holland years the Oilers lost Klefbom and Larsson and as a cap team were hard hit by covid and the long stagnant cap.
Has Holland made mistakes, absolutely, hell even I am not perfect. It is certainly fair to analyze any move he has made and offer criticism based on our opinion of whether or not he got the optimum result.
What makes me wonder is criticizing him for moves he did not make, on the basis that another GM came out ahead on a player we may have coveted. As we know from reported items he was in on players who were traded elsewhere but the other GM preferred someone else’s offer.
He overpaid all free agents (“all” implied if not stated). Tell that to Hyman and Nuge.
He should have traded Player C because he should have known he wasn’t good enough. He should have upgraded Player F because he wasn’t good enough. He should have done this. He should have done that.
Most of us on here, if not all, do not know what he tried to do, what may have been available, and what he did about it if he was not successful in landing Player X or upgrading Player Y.
With the start he had, I don’t think taking till now to get to this point is a hanging offence.
Would you rather the Oilers defend a lead or chase the lead?
Is scoring first critical to success for you?
Eye test, impressions, intuitions all welcome. Just want to get a sense of people’s feelings on the matter.
When I personally think about it there’s a depends involved.
I’d prefer to be down one than up one, but vastly prefer to be up two then down two, which is somewhat working against itself since you have to be up one to be up two.
I’m just not all that comfortable with us defending a small lead. Now some of that discomfort stems from the rope-a-dope games earlier in the playoffs, and I don’t think worrying about a first intermission increase in intensity is really an issue with the Cats. They seem to bring it from the opening whistle as best they can. So maybe just go score first.
Your thoughts?
Always better to be up 1.
There is no guarantee the Oilers score no matter how well they are playing from behind.
I don’t know any player that would tell you different.
You have to be up by 1 before you can be up by 2.
Always better to be up than down.
Lol, almost seems like a direct quote…
My feeling is always is incorrect. I’d buy usually though.
See game 1.
First goal. For sure.
While the Oilers are prone to playing some ugly prevent defence, having the lead forces the opposition to open up. E.g. game seven versus Vancouver.
Also, not scoring first leaves you open to getting goalied.
Note: I have had a few so not sure if this reasoning makes sense or is in anyway coherent.
No, that makes sense. Break the goose egg as soon as possible so you have belief you can get to him. I don’t mind that line of thinking.
For tomorrow, the energy difference in the building vis-a-vis which team scores the first goal will be real and substantial.
I anticipate, the “belief” in the Panthers would also be almost quantifiably different depending on 1-0 vs. 0-1.
I’ve been hard on Foegele during the playoffs yet with him being rested and the chaos he brought to the 1st line allowed clean air for Connor. Kris is doing the right thing and giving minutes to the players going well whether your Kane Leon Brown Ryan Henrique Nuge Nurse Broberg Ceci it doesn’t matter it’s only 1 game give the minutes to whoever is the most effective at this very moment.
Aside from some of the individual performances the thing that’s most impressed me with this Oilers run is the coaching.
In every series the other team straight out-of-the-gate would find some weakness with the Oilers team and hammer them on it. The most glaring was the Dallas forechecking and stretch game, but it seemed like every team had a play or two that caused the Oilers to struggle.
But after a few losses, the Oilers appeared to acknowledge the problems, then maybe re-tool the team using some of its strategic depth, and make adjustments to its own game being variations on defensive strategies or employing new strategies, re-tooling lines, etc, and then their opponent starts to look human.
Dallas gave the Oilers no respect when the series started and it looked like they were drowning. But after a few games, the Oilers started to see clean air and were making plays. This series has a bit of a similar feel to it, albeit Miami is a stronger opponent than Dallas.
Didn’t anyone watch Moneyball?!
Thefe is of course the information part of the job, but there is also the deal making side. As the GM, you need how to work with or work on people to make a deal.
Have we forgot that Kenny’s a grinder? Those vacuum cleaner salesman days help him out!
Moneyball was excellent. I was on the verge of tears several times in that movie.
Such a low-key film, too. Almost like My Dinner With Andre. No special effects or fantastic scenery.
Kenny stomps on the powerless, but bends over for everyone else. He didn’t grind on Keith and he doesn’t grind UFA’s.
That is not a recipe for success in hte new hard cap NHL. As we saw in Detroit where he did not have McDrai to make a merely decent risk adjusted performance look above average.
Vacuum Salesman – didn’t he only do that for only a week? If it was longer, it wasn’t more than a month.
I’m pretty sure he only has brief experience of getting doors slammed in his face, lol.
He gave it up. The job sucked and he was always bagged.
Jim Ignatowski at his finest . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywibBYucL5U
There is a human element to the GM job that is also important – valuing the voices of others in your organization, forming good relationships with players, having a clear vision for what the team needs, being able to navigate negotiations with other GMs, etc. A guy like Tulsky may be equally qualified in this regard, but simply promoting math gurus to the top of the organization isn’t a guaranteed success.
In my opinion, I think it’s important for GMs to be fluent in analytics and what kind of information they provide, but they don’t need to be a Tulsky or a Parkatti. Probably most important is having those guys in prominent positions, such as an AGM or something, where their opinions are valued and heard on a regular basis and the GM can tap into their expertise with specific questions or problems. I think the oilers can be wildly successful thanks to a guy like Parkatti even if he never becomes GM, just by involving him in identifying acquisition targets and evaluating trade proposals and contract negotiations to make sure they’re getting fair or better value.
the fact that Ken Holland decided “we need to be better at generating chances on the cycle”, and then this year they were number 1 in the league at just that thing, tells me the oilers are currently operating under this model, and I would say doing a pretty good job at it.
This is not going to be a popular take, and there’s certainly some generalizing here, but one thing I’ve noticed with folks that make decisions based purely on quantitative data is they often refuse to recognize or acknowlege mistakes as readily as those who also factor in qualitative data and contrary viewpoints.
In assessing mistakes, the default option often becomes “That was what the numbers were saying at the time so the process was sound. If we just keep doing it this way, regression will eventually work in our favor.” That could well prove true but an unwillngness to more fully reconsider ineffective process is not a great trait for a manager imo.
Analytics liked Yakupov. Analytics liked Puljijarvi. Those kind of results need to be kept in mind before we anoint analytics acumen as the be all and end all of mgmt skills.
This is a big straw man argument. Anyone I know who understands statistics and risk knows that there is no such thing as a 100% certain outcome. All you can do is factor in your due diligence, try to avoid exposing yourself to unnecessary risk, yet have the courage of your convictions to go hard when you think a decision makes sense.
The most frustrating people I work with go from their gut and use their authority as the benchmark for who is right and wrong. If you’re not allowed to talk objectively, how do you ever tell your boss they’re making a mistake? You have to convince them they’re wrong, that their gut is misleading them, and they should follow your intuition instead of their own – but who does that? This is where facts and logic and objective numbers help open up two way dialogue among people throughout an organization, and this is what has been lacking in the oilers organization for decades.
IMO a tool the analytics people should probably develop is something that brings in some accountability. i.e. make a list of analytics projections at various historical times: how well do various tools predict teams will do in the coming weeks or season. How beneficial would any of the possible trades be to each team, etc. Then a few months or years later, check to see which predictions came to pass and for things like the trades, how beneficial were they compared to predictions?
You could develop tools that say something like CORSI-based trade predictions have a 66% success rate, etc.
i.e. the idea would be to develop a 2nd order analytics that evaluates the success of analytics-based decision making.
I would be very surprised if teams don’t already do this.
I don’t think we’re as far apart on this as you’re assuming. Whether it’s gut or data leading to them, bad outcomes need to be re-examined because either side is absolutely capable of acting like the ‘smartest men in the room.’ We’ve all met numbers guys who are drinking their own koolaid and letting it go to their heads and as kinger points out in the golf industry example, sometimes the mistake is as simple as focusing on the wrong dataset.
At the end of the day, hubris is the enemy of sound decision making. And gut and data both can be the drivers of hubris.
Fair enough, you did mention you were generalizing, it just seemed like the insinuation was that numbers guys as a rule hide behind their spreadsheets and are unwilling to accept that they made a mistake. I think we can agree that anyone who thinks they have “the answer” is probably wrong, regardless of where they pulled that answer from.
— There was a good article about the ball that callaway spent they say $100mm developing
— They asked for feedback from a few top players and I e of them talked about how the ball does funny things in the wind
— So callaway dismissed this “what does this guy know that doesn’t show up in any data we use”
— But the golfer kept insisting he was right : so this one engineer did some other series of tests and tracked the data using different technologies and process and realized “wow this guy was right, we just didn’t have the data”
— That in a nutshell is where data is in sports: your only as good at the data you collect and how you do. Just because you have smart people and awesome models doesn’t mean your coming up with optimal solutions.
— But the data guys know how good their model is and the old school guys know how good their eyes are, neither of them capture all the information and mistakes and bias get made.
Also back tests may only work if the macro regime does not change. At least 95% of North American money managers have only worked in an era of structural deflation (where passive and 60/40 or risk parity are all one needed), and not structural inflation. And even many quantitative backtests don’t go back beyond 40 years to when we last had structural inflation.
This is not true. Quantitative analysts almost always bake in a stop loss, or a decision tree that tells them that there original decision was wrong. i.e. risk management tends to be build in with quantitative analysis.
That risk management ‘backstop’ worked out really well with the mortgage crisis as I recall.
The Tulsky story needs to be made into a movie.i loved his blogs back in the day.
Carolina is an exceptionally well-run organization. One critique perhaps is that they don’t have a trade history with the ruthless brilliance of the Colorado Avalanche.
I’m going to defend Tulsky here. No, not because Bear got injured or long Covid…
The spreadsheet boys abhor wasted cap space. The utmost importance of cap efficiency is everything to them.
The Oilers Cap Friendly page is the 1970’s furniture store and Carolina’s is the tip of the spear.
The reason that Foegele was available in the first place was because he had a high qualifying offer that Carolina did not want to pay. I presume it scared away other GM’s as well.
Carolina got one yea of Bear at $2m and his contract was off the books after that.
For the first two years of Foegele‘s contract, the question was what would the Oilers have to pay to move it.
In the end, Ken Holland got the better player, but Tulsky got value back while walking away from a contract that he didn’t see as cap efficient.
But the ‘spreadsheet boys’ ended up paying Bear $2.0M-$2.2M to be their 6/7D.
‘Tulsky’ re-signed Bear after his 1st season for $2.2M, then traded him at the end of camp with $400k retained.
How did ‘Tulsky’ get value back? How was all that cap efficient?
How did Tulsky get value back? Bear was value at $2m cap hit at the time he was acquired. Injuries and Covid changed things.
The Oilers got a forward who played 12:36 per game in 2021/2 for $2.75m. Is that good value by your measure?
The Hurricanes got a right shot d who played 16:04 per game for $2m that same season.
Bear had some injury and Covid issues and the Canes packaged him with a career AHLer for a 5th round pick while retaining $400k.
In Foegele’s second season, the Oilers paid $2.75m cap for a guy who averaged 12:42 per game.
If you think that’s the whole story then I guess that would change the evaluation.
You’re also jumping between ‘at the time of the trade’ for Carolina and ‘what they got from the trade’ for the Oilers.
What the Canes got in Bear was a 3rd pairing Dman. Bear played higher up briefly, but finished 6th in TOI/game and ended up healthy scratched down the stretch and through two rounds of the playoffs.
I don’t see how Carolina got value for cap hit from Bear, or how Bear as 6/7D is somehow more cap efficient than Foegele as a 3rd liner.
Bear’s 2021-2 season was derailed by long Covid.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-ethan-bear-hopes-roller-coaster-career-is-back-on-upward-climb
Bear was actually playing top 4 minutes for the first 8 games before he got Covid.
18:09 per game.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20212022&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=CAR&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2021-10-01&td=2021-10-31&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
The most valuable quality you get with a GM like Holland is he has a vision for the compatible parts needed to build a cohesive team. This is important because it helps a GM recognize specific attributes a team may be lacking and match those with the specific strengths a player offers. Who knew Connor Brown was a PK savant? I’ll bet Kenny talked to his peeps and he knew.
Data analysis is like any discipline for a GM. Great if it’s a core strength that augments a larger and broader overall skillset. Not so great if there’s a slavish devotion to analytics to the point it becomes dogma for an org instead of insight.
For example, what if you’re convinced BPA regardless of position is the smart analytics approach and you expend 5 consecutive first rounders drafting wingers with that philosophy?
Does that philosophy properly appreciate the relative scarcity and thus increased value of other positions relative to the wing? Does building on the edges compliment the system your HC is keen to implement? How does the positions you’re drafting dovetail with the plan to build and retain a cost controlled nucleus? How is the different development timelines for each position group factored into your drafting philosophy?
I wish Kenny was a stronger analytics guy when it came to contract negotiations. However when it comes to having the broader team vision as roughly defined above, I’ve always felt those fundamentals were in place with the Dutchman. Contrast this with a guy like Dubas who lands the big marquee players like Tavares and Karlsson but can’t seem to build out a more complete and competitive roster.
So we’re completely ignoring that he went into a second playoffs with a non functioning 2pair, again? They essentially are operating with 3 D playing well. Multiple forwards underwater these playoffs?
The numbers do not back up that he has built a strong team. He has the world’s best player breaking record after record, and another one, and a goalie playing well enough
Not ignoring it all. The contract deficiencies are a massive weakness in his arsenal and as I pointed out a few days back, his mistakes in that area have had a huge knock on effect throughout the roster. His bad contracts undermine much of his good work elsewhere imo.
In many ways, Holland couldn’t finish this build properly because he painted himself into a corner with the cap.
“The numbers do not back up that he has built a strong team.”
OK man. Enjoy Friday night.
You can keep beating this drum but Edmonton had experienced goaltending and better outputs from Leon and 97 was in the same range up until 2nd and 3rd rounds just the past couple years. Pretty good team with amazing stars. Now all Kenny did was as he said he would: make the team a bit better every year. Connor McDavid doesn’t get the greatest assist in his career feeding that puck over to Yamamoto I’m sorry.
I can’t imagine watching this very NHL Finals with a line of Henrique, Brown, and Janmark doing what they are doing and coming away with the conclusion that this is not a well constructed team and its all McDavid.
It seems by your posts that you’re expecting a perfectly built roster.
In this cap system, it’s not possible. No team in the league is perfectly built with value contracts, generational player, another top 5 player, 3 solid dpairs and a top 5 goalie.
As for not upgrading the 2nd pair, how do you know he didn’t try? Who should he have upgraded with? How do you know other GMs didn’t say nope, we’re not letting you do another Ekholm type deal, we’d just be handing you the cup?
I see a lot of your posts talking about what you think should’ve been better, but no suggestions on how you think those improvements could come about.
I respect Scungilli as a very smart poster with high end knowledge of various aspects of the game. I also think his expectations are about as high as I’ve encountered for a reasonable fan (not the pure Holland haters that will provide zero credit for anything).
I shouldn’t “speak for him” but I’m not even sure if he’d be in favor of another Ekholm trade as he believes, while still a good trade, Holland overpaid.
We do KNOW that Holland tried to upgrade 2RD – the accounts that he offered a 1st plus Ceci for Tanev is all but confirmed by the main insiders.
I wonder if the extreme attitudes on evaluations of players stems from the glorious success of the 80’s. Players like Gretzky and Messier we maybe forget their mistakes and it looks like they could do no wrong, in hind-sight.
So we adjust our expectations and we’re hoping to find those players we expect will also be perfect.
That said, Messier started off as a highly flawed player. A **lot** of GMs passed on Messier (48th overall in the draft). And Gretzky did make mistakes. It’s just his glorious successes came so fast and furiously, we largely forget about them.
RIP Donald Sutherland
https://youtu.be/2ieh7BQWCkI?si=cpyMZZo45oxMwupU
People ask “Has Ken Holland earned another contract in EDM”
or
“Should Oilers extend Holland”
The man came here, and committed himself to being the GM for 5 years. He completed his contract and his obligation to the team and the city. He is 68 years old.
He’s been a GM since 1997, won 4 cups as a manager w/ Detroit, and led this team to the SCF.
Maybe the man is ready to retire.?
And he sure as h e double hockey stick earned it.
We can discuss his tenure as an Oilers GM, but I’d leave it at that.
But if they win the cup would KH try one more year?
I presume that whoever will be managing the team next season is already plugging away hard at preparing for QOs, the draft, BO period, etc.
We know negotiations with Drai’s camp and the org are going on, at least at some level.
Re Holland: I was just perusing Oilers roster lists between 2007 and 2012 and was struck by the overall paucity of excellence.
In plain words these teams were appallingly terrible. Existentially bad. Little wonder Edmonton Oilers were seen as the worst destination in the NHL for so many players.
Holland came into Dodge and immediately settled the front office down. Oilers weren’t even managed back in those days before Ken Holland.
And now the team is in the range of potentially winning their next 2 games and entering the highest pinnacle of NHL playoff history. Holland is gone either way. Therefore, why try to catcall him as he walks out the door as at very least a reasonably successful Oilers GM?
I was gonna write something similar. I remember the days we had no farm team to develop players and half our NHL team were AHL-quality players. After we won the 2015 lottery, we were still stuck trying out Ty Rattie on McD’s wing.
Theres stuff to criticize along the way, but the Oilers have come light years from where they once were
When these discussions come up, I always like to look at what Holland inherited in his first year as GM. There really was not a lot going on outside Draisaitl, McDavid and Nuge for a loooong time. Losing Klefbom and Larsson for nothing, the Sekera buyout leaving the team with a bunch of dead cap, and then a freshly signed stinker of a Koskinen contract and an albatross in Lucic…
You can pick apart individual moves and bemoan cap inefficiencies, but he took a cap-strapped tire fire of a team and improved it every year despite working in a flat-capped world for most of his tenure. You can say “sure, but he inherited all the good players”, but the fact we actually, you know, KEPT those good players, has also been such a refreshing change from the Lowe/Tambellini/McTavish/Chiarelli horror years.
I hope Edmonton wins the cup so some of the players can leave and get ridiculous contracts handed to them by idiot GM’s seeking to replicate Andrew Ference and Ben Eager into star players.
There was only one team that tried to turn those two into stars
.., and one coach comes to mind
Thanks for your wise words, LT.
We can respectfully disagree with different moves under the Holland regime. Some moves have been great and others less so. When it comes to the Keith trade, I look at it a bit differently. Was the price paid for Keith too high when you consider it in light of the tutelage that he provided to Bouchard? Would Bouchard be the player he is in these playoffs without that experience? It all comes down to how you frame the issue.
It is also possible to look at each decision that was made by Holland and quibble or find fault. The details matter but only to an extent. Ultimately, we are in the Stanley Cup finals and we can stand tall. Compare today with where we were when Holland arrived, and I think it is tough to argue that he hasn’t been successful.
I think we can also all look in the mirror. I don’t know anyone who has never made a mistake. You hope your good decisions outweigh the bad and we trend in a positive direction. But why would assess someone against a standard of perfection and be critical of them for not achieving it is over the top. We all make mistakes and are human.
I don’t comment often but there are few things, if any, which be judged objectively good or bad. We live in a world of grey and it all depends on how we see the world, frame it and our own personal bias. Just because you think something doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true.
Just my two bits worth . . .
Different between the guy in the organization that signs the deal, and the guy in the organization that has input on all the options for the deal is about $4M a year for a good reason.
RIP Donald Sutherland. Man, the original Hawkeye.
WOOF-WOOF. I’ll always remember him in Kelly’s Heroes in that tank. He was a classic.
Legend.
We can think we know everything but the truth is we can’t. Bear was already showing signs of struggle off the ice while in Edmonton. The worst that I’m aware of was on the Europe trip. Bear broke the team code and punched Yamo in the face in a bar. I believe he was a goner the moment this happened. I heard this directly from eye balls that witnessed it so don’t come at me. There was a group on this trip with ON that’s all I’ll say.
Talking eye balls? Dude don’t bury the lede.
— I read an interesting article about how the Celtics had a huge advantage in 3-point attempts
— They highly favoured the positioning and circumstances for those attempts rather than getting it to their best 3-point player, which is how it’s been done in the past. They had run a bunch of projections on this: applied the data to come up with a different solution.
— so in hockey parlance king of an advanced “Corsi” in that it wasn’t just shot volume rather shot quality
— As for Holland I guess it goes to expectations and we have nothing other than belief to support a point of view.
— For those that think that a Cup appearance (and pray to god for the most unbelievable comeback) is a good tenure then great. Holland is a great GM in your eyes
— It’s hard to quantify what those who do t rate Holland highly to quantify what a different GM would do.
— He’s made some good moves. He’s made some bad ones. We are 2 games away from winning the first Cup under his tenure.
— Just depends on your point of view but hard to quantify mathematics: other than summing up some value of good vs bad sum of the parts.
The great and the scary about running the Oilers is that it’s not a typical situation. Some don’t seem to put a lot of weight on having Connor on the team. It reminds me of before his draft when a lot of people didn’t get what a special player he was. I eventually did and literally jumped around yelling when Daly flipped the card. Dogs were not impressed and luckily they were the only ones home
I think it’s a massive thing having Connor. So one appearance is great but I feel they’ve left a lot of cash on the table. It doesn’t have’ to take a long time to move forward
— I agree with you. We just don’t have a way of quantifying this to “prove” our point of view that Holland left a lot on table.
— Because yeah McDrai @ 21mm for Hollands entire tenure is so massive head start.
— Tippett then Woodcroft I suppose you give credit he didn’t hold on.
— But KK it’s clear that wasn’t Hollands guy and it’s clear his approach is what was needed. No way Holland finds him IMO.
— One thing is for sure : everyone will be happy and toasting Holland’s success if we win the Cup in seemingly his last year with the organization.
Expectations indeed.
My bar for him is that this would be a run at title #3 – not #1.
So yes there has been good and bad as with nearly all managers.
Not near the bullseye though. Somewhere on the board at least.
Then again – I’d also say hiring anything below a top-5 GM in the league is also failing and beyond Holland’s pay grade.
Isn’t this run #3? Lost in 3rd and 2nd round to eventual cup winners in 22/23.
— In 2017 we lost in 7 games in the 2nd round.
— in the 5 years of Hollands tenure twice we did better than that.
— Hopefully we win the Cup but some will feel we left a lot of money of the table regardless, as delightful as the Cup would be and all the accolades Holland would deservedly receive
3rd Cup. Not third playoff run.
Tampa had prime Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman plus a whole cast of strong players throughout their roster – and they won twice while also contending for many years. I think you could argue that trio was close to as good as our top three, and those teams were likely as strong if not stronger than the current oilers throughout the rest of the roster. The reality is, in a 32-team league with a hard salary cap, you just aren’t going to see any dynasties like you used to.
— Pitts, Tampa, LA, Chicago have won multiple times post lock-out in a few years.
— Oilers aren’t done but those teams were my “proxy”. McDrai certainly as good a duo as any of those teams IMO.
— Hopefully our next GM puts us in that category and/or adds to this years Cup.
Kinger, I just don’t think you are putting any weight into the mess made by previous GM(s). (yes they also made some good choices, but overall, I characterize it as a mess)
Holland came in a steadied the rudder. I believe that was needed. NOW, we are ready for the next man.
—. Yeah there was a mess. And he brought decency and lack of hubris and did a lot to improve where we are vs 5 years ago.
— I felt that the organization believed that Holland would take them over the top. I was hoping I was wrong when I felt he wasn’t the optimal hire.
— That’s the issue though : other than saying McDrai was a fantastic start and he did some good moves there is no way to “prove” that my bias that he under performed is true.
— And a new GM if they win cups many would say “yeah the old regime set the table for him”
— it’s an interesting discussion but ultimately who cares : just win baby!
Just win baby!
For me KH has gotten some good players. I haven’t seen much creativity, all obvious, usually he paid top dollar, org depleted. Carolina isn’t depleted, it’s not a given that has to happen even if it’s not easy to accomplish
I find when this is debated the facts keep getting lost and everything circles back and starts again
With the Foegele deal, there is a reason Tulsky moved on. He’s way under water these playoffs and makes tons of mistakes and loses battles according to many looks into it including Curlock, and Holland paid a promising young RD for him. I guess KH ‘won’ because Bear didn’t grow, but what an overpay
The biggest problem these playoffs is the same as last year, he went into a he playoffs with 2 RD who aren’t good enough, leading to half the D core underperforming. I don’t see how people overlook that. Ekholm has been great but doesn’t stay healthy and it has caused some issues, even now
The team is still weak at even strength and can’t hold leads. Two historic performances are driving this run.The underlying numbers aren’t great many games, my biggest worry. Definitely it’s despite a lot more than because to me
Don’t let it stop you Connor
Are you talking about this team? The one in game 6 Stanley Cup?
I mean the team you are imagining does not exist. It would be a team that wins Stanley in 16 games. Thats not going to happen.
Certainly the goal is continuous improvement. But I think you are being too harsh, if the team wasn’t good, they would not be here.
Why couldn’t it happen?
The ’88 Oilers, who didn’t even win their division, had a losing road record and had lost Paul Coffey, went 16-2.
It is highly unlikely – but someone could actually do it.
Yeah yeah cap era etc etc.
The scary thing is just how good this team could actually be with a couple levers pulled.
I guess it could.
But crapping on the players that got you here in the hopes of creating the perfect team, that could just as easily go the other way.
The Hurricanes are an excellent example of “seeing what we want to see”. They too had a “decade of darkness”. They missed the playoffs every year from 2010-2018, they even picked at #2 overall in 2018, traded their first in 2021 and 2022, Paid full price for 27 point player Jesperi Kotkaniemi, full freight on Sebastian Aho, don’t have a good goalie, they have a whole 6 NHL regulars signed past next season, and their prospect system is rate 13-16 by various sources. Don’t get me wrong, they’ve made some good moves too but if you’re a Carolina fan, you’ve thrown a few things after a player move too.
Beware the offer sheet might be my takeaway from that whole affair. Habs offer for Aho but go low, so the Hurricanes get him at a bargain price point.
Carolina – for some reason – decide they’re still mad at the Habs so offer sheet Kotkaniemi. Montreal ended up with a 1st and 3rd from Carolina which they used to trade for Dvorak. The third they used on Adam Engstrom, Defenceman, (Swedish Poster might be able to fill us in on this one) who seems to be progressing well in the Swedish league (22 points in 51 games this year).
I have to say, your comments the last couple of days have been pretty whacky, but the “Ekholm has been great but doesn’t stay healthy and it has caused some issues” is just way, way out there.
You mean the guy who played 79 games in the regular season, all 23 of this run, and is a collective +51 between it all.
I encourage you to take a deep breath and settle down. One of your comments yesterday said you were calling out “untruths”. Please critically evaluate your own.
He specifically call me out for down voting a bunch of post which was nothing but speculative on his part and completely false and wrong an a dick move too.
Apart from Tanev (who lost to the Oilers again) there was no obvious 2RD solution at the deadline. Yes, previous cap mgmt prevented them exploring more expensive options, but every team has weaknesses. What is true is that we’re told the leaders in the room wanted to keep Ceci – presumably they know better than us about his strengths and shortcomings. It’s also true they are in the SCF and it’s coming home Monday.
Before re-signing everyone like Henrique, Janmark, etc… I would propose that perhaps a different approach be taken.
Regardless of whether the Oil win it all, they’ve proven to be a Cup contender and that has to mean something in the market. I like some of the players that have been mentioned but the drive to Stanley is a hard one. Turnover of a few pieces here and there might entice a few players to come willingly, at a reduced price, etc…
I personally believe a team needs a bit of turnover as it helps keep the ‘hunger’ alive. Success breeds success and Sather was quite good at this sort of approach. I hope the new GM comes at the FAs and RFAs with a more business like outlook (a la Vegas perhaps).
I agree. Simply signing everybody again is much too easy. I would still like to see some patience, some evaluation, try to uncover some 23 year old talent.
I can’t remember which of the old Red Wings said it (I think it was Shanahan or Chelios) but he said that once you win it once you think of it as “yours” and the hunger grows to keep and defend “your cup” and it was a bigger drive than the first time. I do think Edmonton will become the destination for “old guy wants his cup” but if you look at Corey Perry right now, he has one and he very much wants another
Specialists are rarely the best minds to also run things.
With rare exceptions – GMs should deploy the ‘math guy’ (and the rest of the team) rather than being the math guy.
The thing is, they also shouldn’t be the classical ‘hockey guy’.
Aim ludicrously high for your leadership team. You’ll be rewarded.
This is correct.
This was the first thought that went through my head while LT was raving about the math guys above.
Oh boy does the YouTube algo “get” me. Showing me highlights from Game 6 in ’06.
A few keys to that team were the in-season trades on D. Spacek and Tarnstrom were amazing for depth. I’d call Broberg as being somewhere in between those two. What a wealth that ’06 team had on D. Pronger-Smith-Spacek-Staos-Tarnstrom-Greene-Bergeron.
Henrique has really rounded out that 3rd line and was a great pickup at the deadline (for his versatility, above all). He had a soft play on the Cats’ 3rd goal last game but he’s a smart player and can clean that up. I hope that line keeps rolling.
As it looks now, I don’t believe the Cats have an edge in depth on the Fwd lines so long as Leon can be on a non-McDavid line. It sure looks like Nuge has ensured that’s possible. Foegle treading water well on the 1st line. The second line vs second line is key to the series. I think if Leon can saw that off to a stalemate, they’re in good shape.
Great article.
Almost every single one of us is also very guilty of calling things far too quickly, and from too close up, rather than letting things settle and viewing again through the lens of time.
Using the Keith trade as an example, count me one of the folks that was in the camp of thinking it was overpay, but, also came round in time to see that it was useful in helping to bring Bouch along. I was grumpy about the lack of retention by Chicago, but heck, didn’t the retirement a year later with zero cost to the Oilers help out a bit? Or am I forgetting how that part worked.
The Bear/Foegele trade seemed a loss to me on day one, but I agree now that we’re further on in time it’s a clear win for the Oil – injuries playing a part in that.
Even the Conor Brown signing. The bonus almost seems palatable now but that had me very eh day one, then with the obvious slow start to his Oiler time had me in fits. I’ll admit that I’m now personally hoping he signs again for next year.
OK Mr.Lowetide, you asked for middle ground, here it is. I don’t agree that all the math guys you mention, from Tulsky to Parkatti, should become GM’s. Now, to be fair, I don’t personally know any of them, but pure statistical knowledge does not a winning GM make! The best attribute of Holland is his humble roots and the way he values opinions of those around him. Also, that many of the trades he makes are often wins for both sides. He has made some moves that didn’t work out (Athanasiou for eg) and he has made some expensive trades that were brilliant and just what this team needed (Ekholm). He has made some excellent bets in free agency (Hyman, most of line 3), and slow played, to the point of frustration, some budding stars in Bouch (already in full bloom) and Broberg (just beginning to show his worth).
I feel confident that Jeff Jackson will hire Hollands replacement with all these attributes in mind, as Knoblauch was an ‘out of the blue’ hire that seems a perfect fit for this team. I believe that the attention to math is coming in the org, but it MUST be mixed with attention to the human element that is Holland’s calling card.
I’m absolutely biased, but I do think the Cleveland Browns approach to their Front Office has been a great merger of Math People and Football People.
This is a comparison of apples to oranges, and not a fair one at that. The argument for a foundation in analytical analysis of player future value is not mutually exclusive with other qualities integral to a great GM. Mr. Tulsky could have the relationship-making skills of Holland. That’s not yet known. The best current GMs bring a combination, in whatever ratio is optimal, of the old-school and new-school thinking. Clearly analytical player models are not a perfect representation of the real world but there is predictive power in there. To ignore that or to say that it’s best left to an analytics department foresakes its value. Having a GM that stays on the cutting edge of the “math” and uses it in a way that scales with its predictive power has a competitive advantage over any GM that has identical qualities but doesn’t use analytics.
What’s weird is to call Tulsky a math guy, when if you look at his bio he is overqualified to run most major corporations, let alone a sports team. If the basic rationale for hiring past players is that they “know the game” it seems like a poor proxy for a major role in a billion dollar company – akin to saying someone from shipping and receiving can head up Amazon.
This isn’t me wading into math vs athletes, it is me saying that giving out a GM role (one of 32) shouldn’t be done solely on a narrow focus. Managing an organization, handling complex contract negotiations, determining hires in multiple roles, all require a complex skill set and determining that on the basis of spreadsheet knowledge/competitive guy is reductive and unnecessarily handicaps an organization.
Holland has multiple years of GM experience, Tulsky has an incredible range of experiences, including a lot of years behind the scenes in Carolina. Judge them on their results, not your biases.
What? On what planet?
We should train an A.I. on the blog’s data and have a chat assistant to keep people’s opinions in check.
“Which Oiler may or may not be LT’s secret offspring?” “Marc Antoine Pouliot” ✅
HHs floundering might be a bit much for A.I. to handle though.
If the AI can fact check and review previous comments to evaluate consistency, it would be brilliant at keeping him in check. Still, our friend Side does a great job at this already.
You will not be allowed to have a personally trained and owned AI. TPTB learned their lesson with the internet and will never allow the decentralization of power to the people in their lifetimes again.
A government-regulated, corporately-trained and licensed to you AI is the best you can hope for. Think of a funnel with blinders on.
Here we are. June 20. Summer solstice. It’s a damn fine day. Birdies are a chirpin’ and the sun is a shinin’. The Oilers are in the thick of a helluva SCF, which, back in November (hell, even last week) seemed as likely as The Turtle winning the Lady Byng… Now here they are, flaws and all, scratching and clawing their way towards immortality.
Damn fine day, indeed. Enjoy it!
I think the Bear for Foegele trade was an even trade.. I think the Oilers would have been better with Bear, so I would not have made it.
Tulsky traded surplus forward depth for defensive depth. It was a win for Carolina. They didn’t need Foegele. They needed to load up on options at depth defense for Brind’Amour. It didn’t work out for Bear there, but he played well in Vancouver, and okay for Washington.
Two analytics focused shops were (Carolina and Washington) were saw Bear as a legit option for a depth D.
When healthy, Bear is a competent 3rd pairing right D who has a better skill set to complement Nurse than Cody Ceci.
A top 4 defender with or without Nurse is the skill set that Nurse needs to be playing with.
Saddling him with 3rd pairing defenders does not complement him in any scenario regardless of skillset.
I disagree.
Nurse played his best hockey when paired with Bear. He actually deferred to Bear on breakouts a lot of the time. That pair was Edmontons first pairing for much of Bears time here.
I too, would have preferred keeping Bear and signing a free agent winger instead of Foegele.
Carolina won the trade the following season, but Edmonton won the longer term trade. Just look at the stats from this season.
Bear – 24 GP
Foegele – 82 GP 20g
Carolina won the trade from their perspective. They were trading a player they did not need and did not want to pay for cheap defensive depth.
Calling Washington analytics focused is a bit of stretch after yesterday. Buying Cap Friendly doesn’t make you analytics focused if you then go and completely ignore the albatross of a contract that Dubois has.
Bear was too small and too slow to be a 2nd pairing D-man. He would not play over Ceci or Desharnais.
Tulsky is very deserving of a GM job, but not just because he uses analytics to inform his decision. He was a leader in industry before he became a hockey executive, and has experience managing teams of people.
Bear would be better with Nurse than Ceci. He WAS better with Nurse than Ceci.
Was and is can be very different
How does one build a team like the 2022 Avs? 16-4 record, never looked even close to being in trouble in any series they played.
Either team that wins this year will have a minimum of 7 losses and had moments of wobble (Florida was a goal away from being down 3-1 to NYR, Oilers could have lost to Vancouver).
The Oilers have the horses on offence and defence now as a good starting point, but probably not the depth that Avs team had. Can the new GM work some magic?
No Injuries would really help a team.
Noteworthy too that the Avs have leaked good players since their cup. Not easy to stay at the top. The Nichushkin situation is going to be very tricky for them
I think it was discussed before, but I’ve just realized how great of a Yogi-ism the Principal gave us:
Just wanted to archive it for all time….or until the site crashes again and we lose everything.
In respons to Kinger.s investing take on Holland yesterday in the activity my response to the Athletic article,
Holland has a decent Sharpe ratio, but NOT a great Sharpe ratio. i.e. Holland has good results, but not great risk-adjusted results. Stopping the sinking ship and getting into the actual race is a success. But being a contender consistently requires a lot more than the NHL Guide and Record Book and relationship GM’ing with the shrinking pool of old school management and agents.
Chiarelli (and MacT and Tambellini) had both a horrible Sharpe ratio and horrible results.
Use Sortino, punishes downside more.
— haha I like that. I think the concept of alpa generation is valid as well.
— To expand on that you could figure this out by comparing the salary paid vs performance adding in costs of acquisitions, the performance of what you chose not to invest I. (Ie what you traded).
— My bias is he’s a “buy and hold dividend stocks” and doesn’t use the same tools that more advanced GMs do as much.
— He for sure did some good things. He’s also a decent person wasn’t OBC and widely respected.
— I’d buy him a beer one day. Just as I’d buy MacT one but for different reasons. Without MacT stewardship we would not have accumulated the Steve Austin’s THEN get McDrai. That epic incompetence was the building blocks for where we are today.
Is it bad argument by analogy week?
I ask a favour, or two or three…
LT – keep posting. I enjoy the read – especially when you reflect on your family. I really enjoy the story of your dad, winter time, driving a truck, not knowing who will survive.
Two, can everyone be normal with your posts. Stop the juvenile shenanigans (I love this word).
Three, try to find agreement while offering a disagreement.
Otherwise, I am packing up my computer and there will be NO haikus. That is a promise.
Boy coops, these are all good suggestions. This is exactly what Ms. Ranger preached in kindergarten at H.A. Gray School circa 1974, along with how to make a shiv (rough school). In fact, I would upvote this, but alas… I am unable to.
You went to H.A. Gray?
I agree, that explains a lot.
I will disagree
In what form will I agree?
All shenanigans
I upvoted this. Thank you.
— so when are we meeting up and where to fight? I will go you. Name the place.
***this is intended to be ironic ****
After recess at the monkey bars of course!!
Definitely a tall task for this bunch to win 2 games in a row against a team this good with basically no 2nd defence pair to be found, but they have a chance. Hopefully the coach comes up with some adjustments for the next game.
I still can’t believe we spotted these guys a 3 game lead to start the series. 18 years to finally get back here and they dug themselves a huge hole. If you play this series 10 times, the first 3 games are a 2-1 split in either direction 9/10 times. Frustrating!!
A tall task, one which they just did. So just need to do it again
One game at a time.
Blame the forwards for lack of support rather than the 2nd and 3rd pair.
Knoblauch also gave Maurice the opportunity several times to get Bennett and Tkachuk out against the 4th line.
Bennett and Tkachuk were really good in game 5.
Ekholm and Bouchard were immediately dinged for a GA when they were not on the ice with McDavid against Bennett and Tkachuk. The 2nd and 3rd pairs had to deal with that most of the game, each only broke once.
Knoblauch didn’t ice the puck to give them those matchups. Home team last change gives them the advantage. Expect 97 to avoid Sasha as much as possible Game 6
The much maligned Ken Holland has put together a decent d-corp. Drafted Broberg, traded for Kulak / Ekholm and singed Ceci. That is 4 of our top 6!
The Nurse bridge and signing shows that Holland does not work well under a salary cap. Should / could he have done a better job – of course! We all could in our jobs – even LT!
The Oilers should not resign him in any capacity. However, when the Oilers win the 2024 SCF he will be the GM of record and deserves all the accolades that come his way.
Well said. I don’t think there is such a thing as a perfect GM. Even ones that have built some pretty good teams on a long term basis lay the odd egg once in a while.
LT – I agree that the Keith trade was a big overpay, but I sometimes wonder if there was an understanding that Keith would retire after one year, sparing the Oilers the two-year cap hit. If that’s so, does that modify your opinion about the trade?
I agree, I think there was an informal understanding that Keith would retire.
Informal understanding aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on. I don’t think this is a thing when millions of dollars and ramifications of future deals are on the line. That’s exactly the kind of thing you formalize.
I agree but I’m not sure the league would have allowed any type of formalization of that scenario.
From what I’ve read, Keith has taken on some sort of guru role with the team. Basically advising them as back in his Blackhawk days they found themselves down 3-0 in the playoffs and came back to win. Interesting if true but at this point, I think everything helps.
The Blackhawks forced a Game 7 in 2011… but they lost to Wangcouver.
Perhaps. But we know that Keith wanted out of Chicago. It was an overpay and I believe that KH has a sense of ‘over respect’ for veterans and what they bring. He loves veterans. He would trade for Chelios if he could.
I think KH wanted Keith so that Edmonton could go deeper, knowing there was little chance to win the cup. And… have Keith in a player development role.
So, Keith = go deeper = more experience when the Oil are ready.
But still, could have gotten a veteran, with less name recognition, but much cheaper
So Maurice stated in his GM5 post-game press conference that his team needs to stay out of the penalty box. Are the cheap-shot, diving and hand-slashing Panthers going to sundenly change their entire modus operandi?
I suspect that most of the players will listen to their coach – Bennet and Turtle probably not. Asking a team / players to change what got them this far, this late in the game appears to be a sign of panic.
So, either the Panthers back off; which means the faster, more talented, Oilers will have clean air and do some damage.
OR
Panthers continue a parade to the box and the Oiler PP does them in.
Oiler win GM6 going away (would love to hear a ‘We want 10’ chant)
With Connor Brown on the ice, they probably don’t want the Oilers taking any penalties either.
We’ve seen this before, primarily against LA and Vancouver – some teams rely on being on the edge of legality to compensate for less skilled players. When that’s taken away and it’s skill vs. skill, then advantage Edmonton.
BTW, after watching Florida, are they just a better version of the LA Kings? They seem to thrive on the chaos their forecheck creates.
LA never forechecked like this, did they? I remember them fleeing the zone and setting up the trap in the neutral zone.
Florida is kind of like LA in the sense that they have been coached to strictly adhere to a certain style of play, and have difficulty adjusting when the other team starts to figure them out. The Oilers have been able to adapt their tactics to their opponents, which reflects the higher skill and hockey IQ that the team has.
This comment reflects what has occurred in every series to this point. Early games, teams hack and wack, and bully. The Oilers pp eventually gets going and the open ice that results from teams not being able to continue to abuse gives McDavid the space he needs to excel.
I think refs gave certain players a chance to behave at starts of series then are calling them. Kings game 3 the shenanigans were escalating and they gave Oil a 5 on 3. Florida game 4 same, a 5 on 3. And I believe it was Chris Rooney #5 both times.
And so, agree, add a daunting PK too, I expect more room to wheel. And with better ice. Having said that the Oil adapted well given the slush in Florida.
On ON Everyday Yaremchuk had a fan clip of McD following Ekblad around duriing a tv timeout, calmly saying some things to him while he tried to avoid Connor. Interesting.
No offense LT, but I am glad the Oilers didn’t listen to you for that draft class 😉
What a haul. Let’s give the team credit with their scouting, picks AND development that year. I think that is your point. 3 of those 5 have already or will break the >200 GP plateau. I suspect Rodrigue will be getting several NHL reps next year. He and Stu minding the crease for the next 5 years or so would be a great story. Home grown tenders.
I am also glad they didn’t listen to me. 🙂
Lady Luck is a Fickle Mistress.
Playing the odds is the safest bet over time, just ask a Vegas casino manager.
To me it’s very funny when a person gets lucky in a prediction then attributes it to skill or superior GMing.
The Oilers have beat the odds (McDavid draft as an example) and lost to the odds (2006) so it goes both ways.
Im not sure the Panthers, or the world for that matter doesn’t realize that the Oilers have been playing desperation hockey since NOVEMBER, and being in a pressure cooker is really just business as usual for Connors and company.
The Math Stats God said the Oilers goose was cooked after game 3, which just proves Math is for losers 😉
Errrr, maybe. I’ll check back tomorrow…. Or Sunday maybe.
OR Ty Smith may have just been picked by the wrong team and the wrong situation which messed up his development.
A lot of things have to be aligned for a prospect to develop properly, particularly defensemen.
I thought that the Oilers’ development of Bouchard was negative – I swear I’ve read that. Something about eating Cheetos on a hotel room or something.
😎 – Good one.
👍
An awful lot of short memories around this place, right.
For sure. All the recency bias forgets the state of the team before Holland showed up.
So much is “assumed” now that certainly wasn’t BH (before Holland)
It is a beautiful day for the solstice and right now hope fills my mind. I even get to go to the driving range with my students, which sets up my weekend even better.
Fair comment on Holland, who I am generally negative about. Getting Ekholm and Hyman in Oil silks has changed the face of this team, even if I do believe adding Walker should have been a priority this spring. We are where we are, and no amount of second guessing is going to ruin my enjoyment of today or tomorrow.
Go Oilers!
Walker had an awful playoffs for Colorado, no?
I do think he would do worse than Ceci.
I think he was a stylistically better fit for Nurse than Ceci. I can’t say I watched enough of his playoffs to know either way, but he did do well in regular season for Colorado. Like I said, it was my preference, but I’m well aware it is water under the bridge.
I’m not sure an undersized d-man that is more pick moving than solid im style would be better – for me.
Thank you for your calm, even handed approach, LT. It is your guidance that prevents this comment section from descending into the cesspool of stupidity that characterizes every other sport commentary on the Al Gore.