There is plenty of luck and hundreds of great plays that don’t get noticed involved in winning a game, let alone a Stanley Cup. Last night, the Oilers contested a goal scored on a marginal offside and won the the review. It might sound funny, but that was a major pressure point in the game. If it went the other way, the entire game would have developed differently. In the ‘great plays no one will notice’ department, Connor McDavid took a penalty that was the definition of a worthy infraction.
The Oilers have three wins in a row, have forced a Game 7 and we’re watching the impossible develop in real time. I don’t know how history will remember this moment, but in real time it is truly mind blowing. In a season that is so improbable, the impossible is happening (thanks to Vin Scully for the quote). What a Stanley Cup final we are witnessing.
I’d like to start by mentioning Stuart Skinner. He is playing so well and the organization has handled his playoff spring brilliantly. Those two things are vital to Edmonton’s current run. In the month of June, Skinner owns a .920 save percentage in all game states, that’s .910 five-on-five and (incredibly) .966 on the penalty kill.
I’m thrilled for him, and for the Oilers scouts who believed in him, the coaches who helped him and for the death of the ‘fire Dustin Schwartz!’ movement. Skinner is a player I’ve admired for his improvement, both in junior and in pro. His performance coming out of the pandemic showed real progress, and I think we’re seeing a similar step forward this spring. I know that dumping on Oilers scouts is a passion for many, Skinner is one of several current Oilers uncovered by the scouting stafff and developed in Bakersfield. Music!
Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm delivered again last night as both have delivered all year. Such smart players. Hyman’s goal-scoring prowess has been a key item for Edmonton during this playoff run. Most of the other stalwart scorers have been plagued by one malady or another, so those goals (Hyman has 15 in 23 games) have been vital to the cause.
Connor McDavid’s playoff numbers (8-34-42 in 23 games) could win him the Conn Smythe even in a series loss, but his 200-foot play has been a highlight of this playoff spring. What a fantastic talent. Fellow Glimmer Twin Leon Draisaitl is clearly fighting something (my guess is more than one something) but for me he played his best game in weeks last night. A good sign for Game 7.
Kris Knoblauch and his coaching staff have handled the defense expertly throughout the playoff spring, and last night was amazing in terms of mix and matching. Here are the pairings by five-on-five minutes and expected goals last night:
- Ekholm-Bouchard 15:16, 49 percent
- Nurse-Broberg 13:01, 34 percent
- Kulak-Ceci 13:01, 22 percent
- Kulak-Bouchard 2:52, 100 percent
There was some wobble (Broberg’s outlet, Nurse getting caught like a house on the side of the road at the blueline, Ceci ineffective in clearing the puck on the backhand) but Skinner saved the day with help from McDavid on the penalty.
That was a great game by a great team, and for me another chapter in the most enjoyable Stanley Cup final in decades. This team has one more step to go and I’m here for whatever my come in Game 7. What a beautiful hockey spring.
Elliotte: This is the first post-Covid game seven in any major league championship.
Sorry for spamming the joint. Busy day and I’m just getting to hockey now
Elliotte: Someone told me that the revenues–gross revenues not net–for Edmonton’s home game [last] night would have been enormous. I heard Game 4 was a massive number, one of the biggest nights in the history of the NHL, I gotta think game six was even bigger.
Pretty sure if Holland wanted to stay, he could.
If one was conspiracy theorizing…
In the “New Normal”–flat cap, inflation like the world hasn’t seen since the early 80s, and all that…
The League have not been a disinterested party in the Oilers playoff push, nor in their Finals comeback. And the Oil have gotten some calls. One could claim game-changing.
Game Seven could be framed as max revenue. Financial interest could be replaced by other motives. One might see the gloves come off from the point of view of officiating. There’s a material chance we might see what they really think about small town Canada, about the boonies, about The Team that Gretzky Built, which stole many Cups from establishment teams that thought they were entitled to them.
I would say to them:
The State of Florida has their Cups. You’ve done a good job spreading Cupdom around the US South already. It’s Canada’s turn. We’ve waited long enough. And giving us the most epic comeback of all time is a reasonable price to pay for the stretch you’ve held us off the board.
And keep in mind the bills Oiler fandom is paying. About the salary cap increase we’re adding to. Bring us the Cup, and we keep buying shit. Screw us over and… not so much.
If one was conspiracy theorizing…
Stauffer revealed the other week that Janmark chose the Oilers and took a pay cut to do so. He picked the Oil because he thought they were the best chance to win the Cup. I have no idea who else had their hat in the ring, but likely Vegas was not re-signing him.
And then he accepted a pay cut to stay. Thank you, Matty. Even if you had less options that at-bat.
I was surprised by his first camp despite him being overweight, even more surprised by his demotion (probably argued with OP about it, IIRC) and he has fast grown into one of my favorite players. I’ve always liked the Tikkanen-Dvorak types.
He has become such a key to the success of this team despite having as little natural finish as Marchant. I wonder if he can be convinced to stay again for a reasonable number but sheesh he sure deserves more than $1 Mill per year.
He’s waay more useful than a Klim Kostin. But if it comes down to one of Rico or Janny, who do you re-sign? Or, if you can do 2 out of 3—Rico, Janny & Fogs—who are you re-signing?
And win game 7, maybe there’s a premium? Or can we hope for some hometown deals?
Whatever the no-cap hit equivalent number is ($1.25 million?), I offer him that for 4+ years.
I think that Janmark may have increased his value from $1MM to the $1.5MM range but Rico is simply in another tier as 20+ goal/50 point player (plus the rest). He’s a “huge discount to $3MM” range type of guy.
I have them in separate tiers on the salary structure – big time – and its tough to compare direct.
I’m not asking for a comparison of salaries but rather where do you spend your money
Could you imagine the pressure the media would be placing on the Oilers going into game 7 if they blew a 3-0 lead. It’s been a running pastime to shit on the Oilers especially the boys on the bus for the last 15 years. Its time for the media to do their jobs and start squeezing Maurice and his squad for possibly being the biggest choke artists in any of our lifetimes.
Then you’ll like this article from The Athletic, penned by Sean McIndoe.
It was almost like McDavid gave the rest of the team led by Drai the room to win G6 on their own and make their mark in this series after going all Hercules in G4 and G5. I expect a larger than life McDavid will re-appear in a very significant way on Tuesday.
Valid point.
Would rather he “re-appear” Monday though.
It seemed like he said, “I’m just gonna go play D for a game, be the high guy in the OZne, the low guy in the DZone.” I mean on the Hyman breakaway goal, 97 is standing in his crease watching Hymes and Nuge scoot through the neutral zone.
And then with Drai putting the focus on himself. And I swear to Gord the core decided pre-season they were going to push Hymes for 50 goals. One year it was Connor’s year to go, at least one a Drai push. The push for Nuge last seaason. This year it was Zac-Attack’s turn.
I don’t doubt something similar was going on in Game 6.
The first goal in Game 7 will be crucial.
The team scoring first has won 5 of the 6 games so far, the exception being Game 2.
Agreed. Chasing the game is not where you wanna be with everything on the line. I like Oil’s odds of not relinquishing an early lead better than FLA’s though. 1st goal for Oil would be a total mindfk for the Panthers, especially an early one.
The Oilers were robbed in G2 by the officiating.
— so this morning I wake up and my wife looking at her phone : I ask her “what are you doing”.
— “looking at flights to Florida for you silly. Of course you want to go it’s your childhood team”
— mother to my 4 children doesn’t even wait for me to ask if I could go. So awesome.
— so haven’t bought ticket to game yet by flight secured. I’d love to meet anyone going at a bar near arena pre-game.
— what say you fellow LTers. I texted Meanashell who I’ve gone out with in Miami before. No doubt he’s going to game.
Unfortunately I cannot make it. Just too busy here in NYC. Plus my kids would not be able to go and I want to watch the game with them! Not sure there is a bar near the rink, the rink is in the middle of a parking lot in the middle of nowhere!
Great to hear. I clearly shopped in the wrong aisle.
The biggest thing that keeps me from feeling overly confident about the next game is that it’ll be played on Florida ice. Of the last three games, the two in Edmonton were the ones we clearly dominated start to finish, and I think a big part of that is the fast ice making for easier breakouts. As the puck slows down, it gets easier for Florida to swarm the puck carrier on all parts of the ice. We might be more used to the travel, but they are more used to playing hockey on a slush pond.
Still gonna call it 4-1 Oilers with the empty net from Stu
Agreed. The Edmonton ice enabled them to break out faster, get the hard rim pass from Ekholm to to Janmark to Henrique for the first goal of the game. The slush in Florida will be a challenge.
But I think the wings are doing a better job of chipping pucks to the center staying low which is helping them to break out faster and that will be key. Would expect more “9-iron” shots out as well to relieve pressure. They’ve been doing that much better since the 3rd period of game 3.
Just. Win. One. Game.
Panthers fans selling their game 7 tickets in droves, apparently.
https://x.com/v3ktorious/status/1804554591951798475
When cheapest tix are going for over $1100 I wouldn’t say in droves. People trying to make a buck.
Currently only 495 listings on Ticketmaster
Beautiful weather today but I’m enjoying the afternoon reading LT, all the articles and videos I can find on the Oilers’ game 6 win. Glorious. Job’s not done but the journey so far has been epic.
BELIEVE.
I don’t post much, as I enjoy Lowetide and the writing that follows. Today springs hope for us long time Oiler fans, and whatever may come on Monday, we know this team excelled to the best of its ability. So I am tapering my expectations, as anything can happen in a one game scenario. I will be pleased regardless, and clearly over the moon if they win. I was over at the Panthers blog (cats litter or something like that?!) and those fans seem sensible, as they are describing their team as one that is collapsing and in need of a heart transplant. Overall those fans, I think, are responsible and see how the Oilers are for real (cause they are) and that their team is out of options. Let me also pose this to this informed group. My wife and I tried to get the game watch tickets for Monday night, as that’s all we can afford…and in particular, my wife is over the moon excited, more than I am and who doesn’t want to make their bride happy right?! So we diligently wait in the queue after getting on at exactly 12:00. It sells out very quickly. Fair enough. I go over to Stub Hub as something tells me the greedy crowd of scammers are out and I see they’re reselling these $20 tickets – for charity for crying out loud – at hundreds more than their face value when it is specifically prohibited. Now no blame to the Oilers organization at all. There is not much they can do. But tons of blame goes to the despicable and greedy bast…d’s. Shame on them. Karma’s a bitch. A tiny example of the greed that saddens my heart, particularly when these tickets could be used by families and other legitimate fans who patiently waited in line and followed the rules. It’s a good thing there are other shining examples of the good things people do, as it restores the faith! As for Monday, let’s know that the team will leave it all on the ice, and if they do, they will be hoisting the Cup!
Lowetide, Ladains… Now we just need a Lawrence Taylor.
This is my hope and my prayer
Let getting to Game 7 not be the Game 7,
Let the game be what it should be, the two best teams playing their best,
Let not malice or ignorance mar the affair
May my team prevail if this be so
Amen
This is the sole source of any anxiety that I may experience over the next couple of days… No repeats of ’06 game 7. Pretty please. With sugar on top.
Yesterday morning after my toolbox talk, many of my workers here in Calgary wanted to talk to me about hockey. Out of roughly 50 guys, about 5 don’t watch sports, so they don’t care one bit, 20 have a passing interference and 25 are avid hockey fans, 4 are Flames fans, and I am the only Oiler fan. Out of the 50, 34 are actively cheering for the Oilers. I think, based on what I’ve seen, more than 50% of hockey fans in Calgary are cheering for 97 & company.
interestingly, one fellow, a guy originally from Portugal and an avid soccer fan (but not a hockey fan at all) told me he had dreamt that Edmonton would win the game 3-1.
I think he called it, no?
I look after a couple utility construction crews in Calgary and all our daily hazard assessments say Go Oilers in the notes, and both foremen have been wearing Oilers jerseys to work 🙂
I live in Calgary. I can’t really comment generally as I was in Toronto for the first 3 games (watched one game in a sports bar, everyone was cheering for the Oilers), and I’ve been in Canmore for games 5 and 6 (Oilers vibe here). But, a friend of mine in Calgary who has Flames season tickets is very actively cheering for the Oilers.
Clearly they are football fans.
Lol, damn autocorrect defeats me again!
Have seen many people in their gear and working their way south on a wide variety of flights during my airport time today. Might be a pretty large contingent once we’re all there Monday night.
Safe travels and enjoy the ride! Will you be sneaking in a nice hunk of Alberta brisket to throw on the ice?
I’d probably need a small trebuchet to get it on the ice from where I’ll be sitting, but perhaps if there’s enough of us we can at least out-chant them.
Had to run back to Saskatoon today for a funeral. Edmonton might not be Canada’s team, but judging by all the cars from Saskatchewan and Manitoba with Oilers gear, we are the Prairies’ team.
I was in Saskatoon a few weeks ago, similarly noticed Oilers gear all over town.
They could write a song about that.
Did The Guess Who already do it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCTvu1U45kA
Offside call was karmic payback for Cale “Sure I had possession of the puck” Makar 2 years ago.
Going in to each of the Dallas and Florida series the talk was all about how deep those teams were.
Dallas was the deepest team in the league, 4 lines strong coming strong, in waves.
Once the Oilers dispatched of the Stars, all of a sudden, the Panthers were the deepest team in the league, “a true team” in the more impressive sense of the work.
OF COURSE, McDavid drags this team around, we know that. At the same time, this is the NHL and teams win championships and its the full depth of this team that is proving to be the tops in the league. The role players are impacting this series HUGE.
I have “the PK” as the “second Conn Smyth” to be honest.
Cody Ceci has played 51 minutes on the PK, against playoff teams, and is 2-0 goals.
I don’t give a shit that Dennis King chooses to point out that, if the Oilers win, they are doing it with the weakest defensive group in decades, this is a FULL EFFING TEAM!
We’re all excited, some also nervous. I am sure almost everyone is doing the LT and enjoying the ride. But given the nature of this blog some are going to challenge narratives that are heading away from reality, and yes that is often me
Mr Ceci has given everything he has for sure, they all have. He’s a part of a historic PK performance these playoffs. He also has no PK points so I don’t see how he has had any effect on 2-0 goals, the work of Jan and Brown, in fact the only 2 players with PK points are them, it’s all them
This series 5v5 Ceci is one of 7 regulars with over 30min TOI with a GF% under 50%, the heart of the game. The others are Drai, Perry, Kulak, McLeod, Nuge, and Brown. Ceci also has been on for the most GA at 6 on the team
The players who have been scored on this series 4 or more times are Ceci, Drai, Kulak, Foegele, Nurse and McLeod. The players who have outscored the best are Connor +5, Zach +4, Bro +3, Jan Henrique Holloway +2. These fellas and Stu getting better as the series goes, and Jan and Brown opening 2 games with shorties, are why they and we are here, 100%
Players can do things that really help like Brown getting a goal and an assist on PK, but his GF% of 25 at 5v5 has also hurt. If not for the huge impact of those shorties to me he would have been a hindrance more than a help. His linemate Jan has GF% of 75 as does Henrique
The players with +GF% are +22. The -GF are -18. This series the players playing well have managed to outscore the ones giving more goals up. Other than Foegele and Nurse at 4 GA all of the other players with higher GA are also -GF
Foegele has stepped up in the finals thankfully, managing a GF% of 60 despite the higher GA. He was leaking bad the rest of the playoffs, still at a GF% of 37.5 for the playoffs
Connor in my opinion has taken this team on his back and carried them here. Without his epic performance it wouldn’t have happened, with so many of the players getting outplayed at 5v5, but he willed it
I’m not sure how you turned this in to a post about you and your ability to challenge narrative.
This is a post about the contributions of the entire roster, the players up and down the roster.
I don’t know how a statement about Ceci play 52 minutes on the PK and not giving up a single goal and being 2-0 is turned in to a narrative about him not having any points on those goals and negatives about his 5 on 5 play.
I didn’t read the rest of the response given the response was taking in to a place that had NOTHING to do with the original post – start your own thread about Ceci’s 5 on 5 goal share and Holland’s epic failure to upgrade.
Having fun yet?
The disallowed goal was within the 1st minute of the 2nd period. More than enough time for the whiners/divers to have a good chance to mount a comeback. So panther/phlegm fans stop complaining
After the miracle recoveries by Bennett- Luostarinen-Barkov-Rodriguez and that obvious dive from Tkachuk that was called a penalty I believe was game 2 has the Refs on the side of caution when doling out freebies to the rats. Refs font like to be shown up they see replays as well as the social media frenzy and the Rats have gotten caught in the cookie jar.
Regardless of time of game, it was offside. Or does that not matter in their version of hockey?
The review wasn’t long either.
I dunno who’s complaining about the no-goal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they also find it unfair to start each game tied at zero.
Rishaug/Struds and Zubie had a poll on their post-game pod last night, essentially, which of the following has been the most impressive in the SC Finals (other than McDavid):
1) Skinner’s play
2) Janmark/Henrique/Brown
3) the rookies, Broberg/Holloway
4) Coach Knob
I think the “obvious choice” is the 3rd line, including their PK work but, truth be told, I can make an argument for all four.
I mean, Skinner was OK for the first few games but he’s been an absolute rock + the last 3 and has clearly out-tended the opposition through the last number of games and probably through the series.
I’ve posted about the coach, every lineup/deployment decision seems to come up aces but the in-game and game to game adjustments seem even more brilliant – I mean, there is a reason the Oilers have come on as series have progressed and dominated games 4-7 so far, each series.
Holloway has been a bit up and down but he had a massive 2-goal/3-point game and, notwithstanding some blue line mistakes, has impacted the game. Broberg has arguably been the team’s 3rd best d-man. Playing clear 2nd pairing, on his offside plus 2 minutes of PK per game. Some clear wobble, but some clear positive impact including 5-2 goals at 5 on 5 (and 9-2 goals overall, with no PP time and legit PK time- there is empty net goals in there which shows trust defending at the end of games).
WOW!
Despite the 0-3 series start, Florida’s vaunted forecheck hasn’t felt as dominant as stretches we faced against Dallas and Vancouver. There were stretches against those two that the ice tilt made Edmonton look like a junior squad.
Maybe we are just better against it now than we were in those series, the only edge I give to Florida is they were better at generating slot shots but knobby/Coffey has cleaned that up for most of this series.
Anyhow I’m quietly confident about game 7. It’s tough for a systems team to bring any different looks, they are what they are, and are facing a team that brings more dynamic problems for them to deal with.
Florida can absolutely win it, but I think they are up against a confident, formidable, and dynamic opponent bent on making history, that just happen to have the two best players in the world.
I think I agree with that. Florida is an excellent team with a system that appears to be great against most of the NHL, most of the time. But their system doesn’t look very flexible or adaptable. The Oilers have been preparing a large cookbook of different configurations and systems for the past several seasons, so they always have another option at the ready when confronted with a challenge. They also have some pretty deep cupboards full of healthy players with different skill-sets, which makes it all a bit easier.
I am blessed enough to be flying to Sunrise tomorrow from my home in Berlin, Germany. I’ll be wearing my signed Oiler Drai jersey, with my signed Germany Drai jersey in my carry-on for my Dad to wear on Monday.
Quick backstory:
I haven’t been to an Oiler game in many years.
My last Oiler playoff game was game one vs. the North Stars at Northlands in ’92 with my Dad.
For most of my childhood I grew up in Edmonton. I lived and breathed Oilers. So much so I would wear my Oiler toque to bed. Before my Dad would go to bed, he’d come into my room and find me sweating and take my toque off.
My Dad would build little hockey rinks in our backyard every winter in West Edmonton. I spent many hours with my Dad on that ice. Fond memories all of them.
One of my earliest core memories was going to Joe Louis Arena to watch what would be Gretzky’s last game there in an Oiler uniform (during the regular season!). It was with my Dad. I vividly remember the whole game with him. 6-4 Oiler victory.
At its best sports brings people and relationships together. For me its brought together my Dad and I.
A couple months ago my Dad lost his wife tragically and he’s been heartbroken. Living in different continents is challenging.
Before the SCF began I somehow scored 2 tickets to game seven. I called my Dad. It took him two seconds to say yes, he’d come.
This epic three game streak to force a final game, in which I can meet up with my Dad, at this pivotal time in his life, is a once in a lifetime thing. EPIC STUFF. I am so thankful and blessed.
Win or lose on Monday night in southern Florida, I’ll be creating another core memory with my Dad.
This is the beauty of sports. This is the beauty of this Oiler playoff run.
Let’s go Oilers!
Safe travels and rep the Oil Drop HARD!!! Hopefully, they provide a storybook ending for you and your father (and the rest of us!).
Wonderfully told, have a great game and reunion. I’ll do an extra cheer for the German Draisatl jersey if I see it in the crowd.
Awesome! Enjoy and cheer LOUDLY!! 🙂
I am so happy for you! What a wonderful development.
I hope this experience is everything and more that you hope it to be!
Does anyone know who the Refs are for game seven?
Kozari and O’Rourke.
This could be painful, then.
Congratulations Oilers. Game 7 Stanley Cup coming up.
well done.
I keep watching the Hyman goal, over and over.
Hyman starts in a dead heat with Ekblad and gains 5-7ft of separation on him pretty quickly. If you watch Ekblad, he doesn’t have it in him to push as hard as Hyman. Same as Barkov and OEL on other similar plays, the Oilers seem to just want it more. I am not sure how you measure that, but watching Ekblad stop skating and coast, watching Hyman score that dagger and you have to wonder about their mentality going into game 7.
When a leader of your team like Ekblad, gives up on a pursuit for a 50/50 puck, the rest of the team sees it. You can guarantee that will be looked at when the team is going over video and everyone will see on of their leaders giving up. Pretty wild.
FLA is Wile E Coyote! Oilers are the anvil.
That anvil is unstoppable and inevitable. Exactly.
IIRC, Ekblad also let up on the empty net goal 97 scored after that great save by the turtle onG5. Probably wouldn’t have changed the outcome but it showed Connor wasn’t gonna quit on a play and Ekblad was
It just might be that Ekblad isn’t that fast. Drai talked about Hymans acceleration in his first two steps are incredible.
What a magical goal Forsling to his credit was coming like a bat out of hell. Hyman listened to Gretzky and went blocker side.
I took a bit of extra glee seeing the sprawling Forsling smash into Bob after the goal!
Ekblad has never been known for speed. I think it was in game 2 he got tied up with 97 behind his net and 97 fell on his ankle. It bent heavily (eversion) and he limped off the ice. I thought he was done. He came back and played the rest of the game. Eversion ankle sprains are nasty. It could be part of his slow down.
It is more how he just gave up. He quit on the play and just watched Hyman score. Even if he knew he wouldn’t catch him, you can’t just give up on a play like that, in an elimination game.
Cody Ceci has played 52 minutes on the PK in the playoffs and is 2-0 goals. Darnell Nurse the same in 38 PK minutes.
THAT is AMAZING!
I will hang my head in shame when the Oilers win the cup for all my negative Ceci comments. Winning fixes everything.
I’ll lift my head in amazement at what Connor did, it’s all about Connor and the Oilers helping Stu out enough and some timely PK goals
What in the world does McDavid have to do with Ceci (and Nurse) on the PK?
McDavid is nowhere near a Stanley Cup if his team hasn’t had an elite and historic PK run.
I responded because they way you commented insinuates Ceci had something to do with the PK goals, neither player had much or anything to do with them, they have no PK points. I agree the PK has been killer, obviously, but I found that misleading
Except that’s not at all what you said. You made it all about McDavid, which has nothing to do with the awesomeness of the PK.
You’ve become a real ass around here.
Pretty random OP. Neither has a PK point
You know I saw you as a fair commenter for a long time but I think I’m beginning to prefer HH.
We all have our views on things. It’s not personal to me
It quite clearly is.
What the eff are you on about?
Random?
No more random that ANY other post.
I’m not sure where you think this team is without the PK being where it is.
Your McDavid response to my post about the d-men on the PK, how THAT is random, and petty.
Why u heff to be so mehd?
I mentioned McDavid because while the PK has been awesome, go have a look at the numbers at NST. His performance has covered a lot of the top players losing the 5v5 battle. That’s what lost it last year against the Knights. He’s the reason they are where they are, far more than anything else
The PK has been a huge boost, but is that really the heart of the story? YMMV
Why sideswipe a post/thread about the amazing PK with talk of 5v5 and the awesomeness of 97? Neither is in game 7 without the other. Newsflash: it’s a team game.
No idea what narrative you’re correcting—or why you feel the need to do so—but it’s misplaced to discount the PK. I didn’t see anyone measuring comparative contribution, until you brought it up.
Not my intention to do that. Of course the PK has been stellar, so has the Panther’s
The gist of the comment is comparative contribution is it not? – ‘Ceci 2-0 goals on PK’. This is technically true, but it makes it sound like they are his or Nurse’s goals or that they were a part of them, and neither were directly
Bottom line is this post comes across to me like a greater defense of Ceci (and Nurse) who OP takes the side of often, as is his prerogative, without saying it directly. Then wrapping it in a mention of the great PK (‘who can argue with that!’), and lending the short handed goals they had little to do with to give more weight
To me it’s framing a narrative. OP made another comment against D King calling out the D group. The numbers say there are some players making this happen, and some that are struggling, despite the team doing what it has. It’s why I mentioned Connor, who is the main driver of the success in this round, despite some things hindering
Ceci and Nurse have helped on PK, but have not been good at the heart of the game, in fact a problem to overcome. To me that what was at the root of the comment, an obscured indirect defense of the players
Do I know for sure? No, but it’s along the lines of many such comments. It’s why I called it random, the specific mention of two players on the PK that has many, and a misleading attribution of contribution. For what reason? We can only go by what the words seem to indicate, and to me it seemed off
It’s not a big deal to me as some seem to take it, and I’ll take the heat for bringing it up
Got it. Rather than taking a post at face value, you’re connecting dots from all over the place to create a worst possible scenario, and then you’re compelled to “correct” this “narrative”…
OP did not mention:
OP posted some numbers that *are* amazing.
Of course similar numbers are also true of pretty much everyone on the incredible PK.
Did you say that? Or ask if there was additional meaning? Or scroll past?
No, the real or imagined “narrative” must be smote with the reply button and tangential references to “random” and “Connor” (Brown?…no, in later responses you mention McDavid and that he’s driving the bus 5v5). Connor at 5v5, your very own “who can argue that?”. Pot, meet Kettle.
BTW, the numbers OP mentioned could be considered even more astounding if the players involved came out of retirement and posted them. Imagine the Oilers are short staffed and K.Lowe and Coffey had to suit up, and the PK pitched a shutout….THAT would be AMAZING. Doesn’t mean they’re perfect players (or should come out of retirement), but AMAZING numbers.
So yeah, there’s more than one way to read things. Maybe ask for clarification next time. Or scroll past the post. This community doesn’t need to devolve into everyone reading the worst in each other’s posts. That’s easy to find elsewhere, in real life or on the “Al Gore”, both have it spades.
It’s true they don’t have points but the structure and aggressiveness of the entire unit allows for battles won at pinch points which leads to either zone clears or odd man rushes.
I’ve been thinking, and am becoming more convinced, the Oilers win the 2023 Stanley Cup if Mattias Janmark didn’t get hurt (twice).
I have been thinking about this for a few weeks. I think his absence really hurt the Oilers during the Vegas series last year.
Janmark was the player who had the careless high sticking penalty to put the Oilers on the five on three powerplay in game 5.
Who hasnt had a careless high stick?
I’ve enjoyed watching Broberg get his chance finally and he’s made a number of noticeably good plays with his stick, his reach, his skating, and a surprisingly good shot. He’s rocking a 75% GF, (see below) but his on ice metrics are among the worst on D (along with Ceci). Part of that is playing on his offside, part of that is dealing with some of the chaos in Nurses’s game, but it makes me a bit anxious going into G7. I hope coach runs 2-14 25-30 minutes and elevates Kulak’s minutes over Bro.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=3&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&team=EDM&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
If he was a Canuck posting a 75%GF we would HHave a full explanation of why this is due to coaching and deployment.
His skating is what I notice the most. He gets the puck behind and to one side of the net stationary with a Panther right there. 2 steps later there is 2 feet of separation. Good draft pick.
And he doesn’t even look like he’s working hard at it. It always appears that he’s confident in his acceleration advantage (and having the puck way out in front on his giant stick). It looks like there’s no hope for the forechecker because he’s not even at 100% effort.
Knoblauch tries to run units of five. i.e. he wants 2 out with 97 as much as possible. This means all the pairs are going to have roughly the same 5 on 5 ice time, if all things are roughly equal.
The pairs that are playing better in any game get the shifts with the 4th line (or the pair which gets Bouchard back in rotation with McDavid). Bouchard’s minutes boost comes from the power play and the fact that the McDavid line gets extra shifts (or doesn’t lose any shifts) over the course of the game.
Ekholm/Ceci Nurse/Broberg are the PK pairs. Kulak takes the post PK shift with Bouchard and McDrai if Ekholm is playing the end of the PK. Kulak is the 5th PK D if one of the other four is the guy taking the penalty.
It is unlikely that that is going to change. The Oilers have been doing this all year.
Mostly all year it is Bouchard with McDavid, Nurse with Draisaitl, and Kulak with the 3rd line.
After game 2, I told my wife and in-laws that they just need to solve Bob and they’ll get the confidence to get back in the series. After game 3, I reiterated it after they nearly clawed their way back in during the third period. Last night, my mother-in-law shouted out, “Kara called it!” And boy, was that a good feeling 🙂
What a ride. LT, thank you for this blog. It’s been a ride!
Dear Oilers:
Take Doughty’s advice and go and win it.
Win it for little Ben Stelter and all of us fans who bleed blue and orange.
Win it for the scouts who drafted Skinner, Broberg, McLeod, Holloway, etc.
Win it for old guys Derek Ryan and Corey Perry.
Win it for the Nuge.
Win it for us fans who are still hurting from 2006 against Carolina.
Win it for this northern outpost that is Edmonton.
Win it for LT and the gang here.
Win it for yourselves.
Show us sex on a stick Monday night.
Win it for all of Oilers Nation.
Re the Corsi challenges of game 5 and 6: how much of that is related to score effects?
A lot of it. As I mentioned I compiled numbers and things are kind of all over the place. What stood out is the Oilers are blocking more shots than the Panthers, but have been outshot 2 of the last 3
My kids and wife have been after me to put a pool in the backyard. They asked me again when we were down 0-3 and I told them that if the Oilers win Stanley, I’ll do it…
Expensive victory.
I told my son he’d have to wear my Oilers jersey to school. We live in Victoria so there’s a lot of detractors, not the easiest thing for a teenager to do. . .
I’m in Victoria too. Driving downtown this morning I saw someone walking in a Paajarvi jersey and it made me so happy.
Yeah, I see a few Oilers jerseys. My son says at his highschool he sees around 10 or 15 or so in a day, kids of parents from Edmonton.
If you ever see a weiner dog in an Oilers jersey, the human beside him (if male) would be me. Otherwise it would likely be my wife. We’re up in Cordova Bay.
There’s some excellent low tides (pun not intended) these past several days. Sunday and monday should be good, too.
Low tide at the beach is one of my puppies favourite things.
Nice!
I thought I had the only one.
I had high hopes for Magnus.
Cheers!
From Crazy eyes Zito, to Coach Maurice to Tkachuk/Barkov the Panthers body language says they are defeated.
Anyone who tries to tell you the pressure is on the Oilers is not being honest. FLA is absolutely shocked and playing tight … they will be the 4th team up 3-0 in the cup final that has to play game 7.
i love the fact the Oilers are on the road with 0 distractions to worry about. Florida is in a state of confusion … no fear Oilers .. no fear … this is a chance to be LEGENDS.
I think it’s telling that the Panthers families flew down for the game 4 blow out, but didn’t fly down for game 6 to try to keep things “normal”. If it’s too much pressure or too distracting playing game 6 with their families around, how will they feel playing game 7, at home, after choking a 3 game lead and at risk of becoming a laughingstock across professional sports?
The amount of pressure on both sides is equal in game seven. There’s absolutely no way you can count Florida out, one game decides it. I like Edmonton’s chances. BUT….
I take 97 vs the field.
I think the panthers are under more pressure. Of course the Oilers have it as well, but they won’t have anything to answer for regardless of the outcome. Not so for the bad guys. Come back kids vs epic choke
I’m still in shock. Incredible. Absolutely incredible.
I’m guessing you could hear a rat fart on the Panther’s flight back home. Poker anyone?
Meanwhile, on the Oilers’ flight to FLA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BGDoiKQ4Qs
On to Game 7 #4!
I have not read a lot of the tactical reviews this series, but I would say my observation is that Oilers’ coaches learned from Dallas and are employing their tactics against Florida. Getting it out quickly against strong pressure and having one forward ready to fly the zone. It’s been very effective and has led to most of their best rush chances.
Watch hockey psychology on YouTube. I feel the same way and they broke down why.
https://youtu.be/0L6z3hWETrU?si=yAVbaixPS2-Uhojz
Last loss against Dallas where I think everything changed.
Knobby deserves the Conn Smythe.
Discovering Hockey Psychology (and Tactical Review on Oilers Nation) has added a lot to my understanding – today’s HP breaking down how the Oilers are handling the aggressive forecheck is excellent (Oilers 7-0 on goals off the rush in the last three games .. I think). It also reckons Bob is creaking.
And add to that the discovery that Bob is not good when its a shot off the rush and when its high.
Yes, esp his blocker side
I know it feels like Broberg has been playing forever already.
Game 4 Dallas: 3rd pair with Ceci
Game 1 Florida: 3rd pair on the right side with Kulak
Game 3 Florida: 2nd pair on the right side with Nurse.
Nurse, zero plus games, without Broberg. Nurse zero negative games, with Broberg.
Optimizing the deployment of the defensive pairs is the most significant move, was always going to be the most significant move. Knoblauch has made a lot of other significant tactical moves, but without getting to Broberg, I don’t think the others prevent the losing to Dallas or losing to Florida.
One more game.
BroB has been excellent. Perfectly marinated before being thrown into the fire!
My wild speculation is that Draisaitl has been nursing a back issue. In the LA series he took a crosscheck to the lower back and when he came off he clearly said “my back” to TD Forss. His mobility has been a bit all over the place all playoffs.
I remember him saying that, thought it was in Game 1 vs Vancouver.
I am honoured to receive a Bruce McCurdy Oiler history correction
There have been rumblings of broken ribs as well.
Not to mention he had been taping up that finger.
There have been 204 series in the NHL history go 3-0 ahead 9 of those series have made it to a game 7 and 4 have managed the 4-3 series comeback.
If I heard it right, the Oilers were the first team in SCF history to be down 3-0 and then win Game 5 on the road.
One game at a time!
GOILERS!!!
God and what about Henrique? Some commented yesterday that he’s exactly what you hope for in a deadline acquisition. Filled a major role, has scored big goals, and meshed with the team perfectly. Beautiful.
Oh, and one more shout out to Janmark. I have an old 1990s Dodge diesel pickup that reminds me of him. Nothing flashy, just a pure torque-addled workhorse. Goes out and gets the job done every time you need.
Henrique-Janmark-Brown has been by far the best line to not have McDavid or Draisaitl on it since McDavid and Draisaitl have been Oilers.
Henrique was hurt for much of the playoffs. Anyone know with what? Maybe that means he is recovered and fresh as he just came back online?
ankle injury iirc
I am as happy as anyone about our Oilers. I have compiled a bunch of numbers for the series we can look at and argue about all summer after it’s over
Way back in the 2024 playoffs I said Lady Luck would need to smile on our Oilers. They have been slowly building up some key things better than the Panthers. But please Ma’am, smile one more time, as wide as you can, show us your pearly whites again
I’m also impressed that built a team only 1 win away despite having nearly $7 million in wasted cap space with Campbell and Neal. Imagine if that money could be spent on useful assets
Yes sir
FLA has more wasted cap space paying Bob and the turtle 😂
Well, Bouchard and Hyman might be the two best value contracts in the entire NHL and Drai is right there too.
Lowetide, I’ve been reading this blog and listening to your show for so long, I have these moments in time of being a reader/listener and an Oiler fan that are just imprinted on me as markers on this journey.
“And The penalty kill can go to hell!”
That morning after that God awful game against Buffalo, I remember thinking to myself, why the hell do I love this team!? And then listening to Lowetide rant about how brutal the team was, really gave me a feeling of solidarity that there were others suffering through it the same as me.
”Kris Russel is a defenceman in the national hockey league”
I believe that was a title of an article after Russel scored on his own net. I didn’t love Russel. But I understood why the team used him the way they did. There was so much vitriol out there about this player between the blog and twitter (Especially after a game like that) it was always Lowetide that could speak to the reasonable and keep me from absolutely losing my mind.
To go from what it meant and felt like to be an Oiler fan then to what it feels like now… my only words are joy and gratitude. Thank you Lowetide. Win or lose Monday, I’ll be reading the blog’s comments all game, and reading Tuesday mornings article with a cup of coffee to share the Joy with you or the sorrow with you.
Never change my friend. Never Change.
To be fair, if I remember correctly, that own goal game by Russel, he had scored a beauty earlier on. Against the Leafs, right?
my recollection is of KRusty bombing a slapper into his own net with 1 minute left in regulation of (what had been) a tie game. Against the Leafs of all teams.
Maybe my memory has exaggerated it?
6-4 loss with an empty netter?
Was a good shot. Picked a corner. Top shelf, where Dad keeps the nudie mags.
KRusty was arguably the toughest Oiler ever! He is what you want from the players – giving everything they have all the time. The current team is that but just with more talent. All time respect for the Carolina cowboy.
Anyone who downvotes the Carolina Cowboy should turn in their Oilers Fan card.
Gotta think that all those ex-Oilers that spent significant time on the McDavid Oilers are going to be pulling like hell for our boys: KRussell, Keith, Smith, Barrie, Kassian, Archibald … all were flawed and limited players during their time with the organization, but to a man they were terrific vets that I’ll remember fondly.
This
I am wondering about coaching in this series. Maurice’s system has clearly given the oilers trouble in the past. Swept us in the Winnipeg series and then the first three games of this one. But it seems like the oilers have figured out how to avoid the forecheck relatively well.
Are the panthers making any adjustments? I feel like they are constantly getting burned with four guys swarming the puck. That rim play to Janmark I swear lead to identical chances and goals in the last three games.
I wonder if Florida’s pressure has overwhelmed teams in the playoffs, and now that an opponent has come up with an effective strategy against it, they don’t know how to react.
Maurice has been steadfast with his approach always as far as I can tell. I can see him making adjustments, but to make any sort of drastic systems change in the very last game of the year and abandon the system that got them there might not compute in PoMo’s brain.
Look at the Oil, they majorly changed their system after G1 to adapt to Florida’s forecheck, but it took two full games to get the team fully understanding their Xs and Os for proper execution—and that’s for a team that has made major changes to the system they play already. Does Paul Maurice risk a bold move?
Knoblauch has made excellent adjustments these playoffs whether it was adjusting to the Dallas Stars’ cherry picker strategy or the hard Panthers forecheck.
I don’t recall an Oilers coach since MacT that was so adept at this.
Most Oilers coaches’ strategy during the McDavid era has been simply to just shorten the bench.
I think Maurice is smart because he has them play for what they are built for by Zito. Also it’s probably why they hired Maurice, they share a vision. Aggressive, hard, and fast. It’s essentially hockey blitzkrieg
But, what adjustments can they make? They don’t have many top end players, their strength is decent depth, a goalie that was hot, and team commitment to their way, top to bottom. They have good players and some talented players, but outside of Turtle I’m not sure how many players that can change games. I guess Slasha, but he is more understated. If they sat back more and played a lower risk game, I think that would play into our hands
It ain’t over ’till it’s over. They are a hard team to play because they counter attack hard and attack low to high hard, and defending that isn’t the Oilers’ strength. One more lads! Leave it all out there
That’s the only way the Panthers know how to play. It has been successful for them, and they won’t change anything. They still only need to win one game. But so now do the Oilers. It’s 50/50 and what a game it will be.
I think the Oilers have made more fans worldwide. I bet they’ve even converted some Panther fans. Do the Panthers have any fans left?
Yes, the same 6 from before 2023.
I think Maurice was thinking that with a 3-0 lead, regardless of what the Oilers do to improve, basic statistics will be in their favour to deliver a win in four games.
And he would be correct. However, the Oilers had a chip and a chair and have doubled up 3 times to tie at heads up. Momentum is a real thing in poker as you get in the other players heads. FLA players are feeling the heat and doubting themselves. Oilers win 5-1
This series is very close. The breaks went Florida’s way in the first three games. The OIlers made more mistakes.
Game 4 was a blowout.
The Panthers would have won game five if not for Oiler special teams.
Game 6 was very even, but the breaks went the Oilers way. And the Panthers made more mistakes.
Game 7 will be the first do-or-die game for the Panthers, and the first game the Oilers can win the Cup.
I don’t think anything that happened in games 1 through 6 will matter once the puck is dropped in game 7.
wrong, recent history is important to mindset and execution. Oilers 5-1
It may seem like the coin is loaded for game 7, but it really isn’t. Florida is a really good team and worthy opponent.
Game 7 at puck drop is a coin flip. Random events can decide things.
Game 7 in the Stanley Cup final is next level. What happened before probably/likely does not matter at all. It is its own singular thing.
Well you take the coin flip – I’ll take the Oilers 100% of the time. No math just Oiler fan passion.
Stuart Skinner is living the dream of virtually every kid who grew up in Canada: playing for your hometown team and getting your team to the Stanley Cup Finals and winning two must win games on home ice. He’s one of the most key pieces to this entire Oilers season. If he didn’t find his game, the Oil never even sniff the playoffs.
All the storylines coming out of this season are hard to even fathom. Regardless what happens Monday this has been the most epic season of sports I’ve ever witnessed. Like watching a nine month long rendition of Friday Night Lights. Thank you Oilers!
Totally agree. You couldn’t write a better script. This is the greatest season I’ve watched.
I’ve been telling lots of people that it feels like the 2016 NBA LeBron comeback. The narrative about it never being done before, combined with the greatest player of his generation. That made it the best series in sports I had ever watched.
If the oilers pull this off…. It tops that one a hundred times over for me.
The crazy thing is that win or lose, the Oilers will have the horses to run it back next year as top level contenders.
Top 10 goalie – Skinner (check)
Elite defense pairing – Ekholm-Bouchard (check)
Top 5 centres – McDavid, Draisaitl (check)
Top 10 wingers – Nuge, Hyman (check)
Young players ready to take the next step after getting baptized in the playoffs – Holloway, McLeod, Broberg (check)
They’ll have 10 million in cap space to work with + 3.9 million of extra cap space if they decide to buy out Campbell. When free agency starts and everyone else is going to be focused on inking deals for top of the roster players to monster contracts, the Oilers can focus on reloading the bottom of the roster with good pros who want a shot at the Cup, and are willing to take a little less.
The cap space is required to sign both Holloway and Broberg and also sign or replace the following players on the 23: Foegele, Henrique, Janmark, Brown, Deharnais, Pickard.
A month ago the presumption was, if Janmark or Brown would be brought back, it would be near a min each and that may not be available for either.
Maurice calling in the CIA is peak entertainment
Paul ‘Contra’ Maurice. But shouldn’t it be Flowers By Irene on the continental United States?
I don’t travel enough to know this answer. Is the travel for this series an advantage to the Panthers or Oilers or neither for game 7? Florida hasn’t left there time zone I think since February. So to much travel for us or are they used to it. To much jet lag for the panthers or is that overplayed?
The Oilers are at the top or the top of the league for travel. They have to be more used to dealing with it
I travelled YEG to US many many times per year for a couple of decades. Advantage Oilers as it just becomes the norm.
I am pretty sure both teams have been living on EDT since winning the conference finals. The games all start at the same time EDT.
When I saw the look on Warren Foegele’s face while he was sitting on the bench after scoring that awesome goal on an awesome pass from Leon, I knew it was game over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxWvQR-iUNo&t=75s
My tension dropped steadily as that game went on. It was certain the boys were not going to lose.
This team, coaches, and management have silenced ALL of their critics. They’ve proven they have the hearts, minds, and skill of champions regardless of what happens Monday.
This is (was?) a math first group so it’s hardly surprising some wheels fell off the bandwagon after game 3. The odds were not encouraging. But that is the beauty of sports. You can shut up every naysayer by simply playing your best. I LOVE the belief this team has in itself. In these fractured times, unity is a beautiful thing.
And man this city is unified! My 2 lads have been in the Moss Pit for every single game and i can rest easy knowing the next generations of Oiler fans are now as addicted to this team as us old fogies who lived the jubilation of the 80s. Win or lose I will be downtown Monday night because you just can’t beat this experience and the more people you share it with, the better it feels. Music!!!!!
Keep your head up Lord Stanley. We’re coming for you!
Saw this post today on a Sportsnet story that resonated with me big time… “I expect McDavid to put on an incredible performance Monday night. His entire, extraordinary, hockey life has led him to this moment.”
Hyman 16 in 24, LT.
One more would put him in pantheon of Lalonde, Gretzky, Bossy.
Lots of good old fashioned ribbing on the way he scored goals as a backboard, but the combination of intelligence, determination, and yea, skill, goes unnoticed. Skating is great and he admitted that he has spent a fair bit of time working on his shot since coming to Edmonton. Major kudos and we are so lucky to have him. Rivaling Leon for value forward contract
Hyman might have been a bit un-noticed by the east-coast media a few months ago, but after he passed every big-ticket Leafs player in NHL scoring I think that narrative died.
“All” the talking heads of hockey had the Panthers significantly deeper than Edmonton; Bob better than Stewy; and apparently Barkov about equal with McDavid.
Edmonton’s draft and get into the NHL
McDavid, Nuge, Leon, Nurse
Edmonton draft and develop
Stewy, McLeod, Holloway, Desharnais, Broberg and Bouchard
If Holland had not come along, I would bet 50% of the draft and develop players on this list, don’t grow to be NHL Players.
I view Barkov as RNH with extra meat. Excellent player. Oilers would love to have two or three RNH’s.
Henrique is kind of like Nuge light – a Swiss Army knife
From scouring the web for info on eligibility for inclusion on the Stanley Cup, it seems that anyone who has played either 41 reg season games or 1 game in the final series is eligible (also coaches, management, staff). This is the best resource I’ve found on the matter.
There’s room for 52 names altogether.
Foegele
Kulak
Draisaitl
Bouchard
Nurse
McLeod
Hyman
RNH
Ekholm
Ceci
Desharnais
Kane
McDavid
Janmark
Brown
Ryan
Perry
Holloway
Henrique
Carrick
Broberg
Skinner
Pickard (just had to dress as a backup for 41 reg or 1 final)
The winning team can also petition the league to add names, usually in case of injury. I wonder if EDM wins, they’d petition to get Gagner (28 reg GP) for being a good soldier for so long.
Or, who would insert Gagner for Ryan?
No way! Undrafted, former Golden Bears star! He may be American but he is an Edmontonian through and through
That can’t be a serious suggestion, can it?
It wasn’t a suggestion. It was a question to see if anyone would consider it, like Weight in 2006 sitting on the bench and taking a short shift when he was too injured to play.
There has been discussion about some hope of getting Gagner’s name on the cup.
It would take some overconfidence to make that move.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Karma is a bitch.
Kinda like flying all the friends and admirers in for Game 4, to watch the Cup being awarded. What could possibly go wrong?
There is very little doubt the Oilers wouldn’t have done the same thing if the roles were reversed. I’m sure that the Oilers’ friends and family will be in South Florida on Monday.