The Edmonton Oilers are half past heartbreak with an absolute mountain of paperwork on the desk. It’s cheese whiz sandwiches, stale coffee and weary eyes for the next 10 days minimum. Who is running this joint anyway?
I’ll have my draft list for you Friday, I’m not sure I can get you to Top 125 (my normal total) but there will be a “Here Comes the Sun” with a mock draft for Edmonton. The Oilers are in good position if Rick Pracey (the new scouting director) finds the sweet spot between scouting and numbers projection. The numbers are not a difficult science, hell my Friday list is solid and a guy like Michael Parkatti will have a far better mousetrap at Pracey’s disposal. I’m very much looking forward to Pracey’s first draft, because the amateur scouts are fine and Parkatti is bona fide. This could go very well, even with many late picks.
Names I’m looking at for Edmonton with that second round pick and later are Tanner Howe, Luke Misa, Maxim Massé, Antonin Verreault and Kenta Isogai.
The Leon Draisaitl saga will roll out this summer and everyone is writing about it right now. You can get insight here, here, and here. For me, the idea of running next season with an unsigned Draisaitl heading to free agency is a bridge too far. Your mileage may vary. Since it’s about to go away, thought I’d put together my idea for the summer via CapFriendly’s awesome roster tool. Numbers are estimates for UFA and RFA and of course open for debate.
I bought out Jack Campbell, traded Cody Ceci for Alexandre Texier, and you can see the rest. I believe the Oilers might have a legit No. 2 goaltender in Olivier Rodrigue, so signing Calvin Pickard is good insurance and he can play No. 2 NHL or No. 1 AHL with no quarrel.
The big moves are getting Darnell Nurse a true partner who can play against elites, and keeping Adam Henrique (I was an am a fan of the trade that brought him here). YMMV, hammer away.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll talk to Bruce McCurdy at the Cult of Hockey about the loss in Game 7, the Leon Draisaitl contract and more. Bruce is a friend, but also a great chronicler of the game, so we’ll ask him to place this year’s team in context. A Herculean task, but he is the best person to do it. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
We had the better team… best player, better PK, better PP, better goalie, better defenders, better forward depth, and better coaches. And could not win. It should not have been close. The fact that it was makes me think that chance is unlikely to come again.
Still too many mistakes… and a league that lets stars get broken hands and ribs on no call plays. Game 7 supervised by a duo who are proven to give statistical advantage to Florida.
I could not watch The Gimp Maurice, Mr Creosote Keith and ex Flames hoist the cup. Loungo like of Sloth from Goonies, a figure head for something he doesn’t understand and could never do himself. Bill Zito the Dasani meme.
The Panthers are as gross as the sloppy slush they call ice.
An NHL where this Oilers team cannot win is not an NHL any Canadian should want to watch.
I agree that the Oilers not winning is a greater indictment of the NHL than it is of Ken Holland or Connor McDavid for the reasons you’ve listed. I wish this was the general sentiment among thinking men with microphones.
💯
People need to take the NHL at their word:
Parity means rewarding incompetence by means of the draft.
Parity means schemes of overtime and shootouts that reduce victories to coin tosses.
Edmonton benefited from the former in the decade of darkness and the latter in 2006.
But the last part of parity has to do with how the games are called and the refs chosen to tilt the ice.
The games are being called to reduce the impact of elite talent. And the ice conditions are the same. It’s 2024 and the league is not capable of providing a proper surface for play in game 7 of the cup final. And they allow severe injury to occur on players without call.
The ice sucks. We don’t know if the puck went into the net or not. But you’d better believe the player tracking systems used for calculating in game betting odds by MGM are working perfectly.
BTW, I believe that Sunny Mehta as Assistant GM will have his name on the cup. Is this a first for analytics?
I am done, give him 4/8 and walk away laughing
Super great that we found another Swedish defencemen. They are good at the job.
I am sad and scared.
Given how bad Toronto’s attempt to improve their goaltending has gone, I wonder if they would take Soup back with 25% retained to be the backup behind Woll?
it’s late now, but maybe someone can bring this up tomorrow.
17 of the top 35 Single Playoff season points all time are …. from OILERS !
Stauff straight up thinks McLeod could be moved.
I think that would be a mistake. He’s young, fast, and relatively inexpensive.
Sure he had a poor playoff performance this year, but why sell low?
A smart team would acquire him from the Oilers for next to nothing, put him on a line with two high-end wingers and call it a day.
Have we learned nothing from Ryan Strome?
Ryan McLeod is almost literally the definition of a ‘moneyball’ player.
He’s not much of a shooter and a bit of a perimeter player who shy’s away from contact. He’s not even a great play maker.
So he’s a flawed player and if you focus on his flaws, you discard him.
But for $2m cap hit, you’ve got one of the fastest players in the game who plays centre with decent defensive metrics (when healthy).
If you put him on a line with a couple of capable wingers who can shoot and make plays, he’ll transport the puck for you. You’ll have an excellent line and save tons of cap on that line with him.
He’s even good a zone entries on a powerplay if you need someone to do that. Lots of teams need a guy to do that alone.
He was also pretty good on Drai’s wing, can always give that a go again.
Why presume “next to nothing”?
The timing. Players that get traded after a rough playoffs don’t generally bring back favorable trade returns.
I think it will be very hard to get value back in trade for a player like McLeod.
4 points in 24 playoff games with a -7.
All eyes on a player who was basically a non-factor these playoffs… you’re just not going to get much back for that trading him now.
What do you hope is the return? A second or third round draft pick?
Look at Durzi from last year’s playoffs. He was flat out terrible and the Kings were lucky to get a second round pick for him.
What would Durzi be worth right now today after season of top-pairing minutes and 41 points?
He made some soft plays, especially in game 7, but also at other critical moments during this playoffs. Finished the season on the 4th line.
Great wheels, and gets back in transition better than anyone not named McDavid though.
Really tough player to evaluate. He avoids contact along the boards, and doesn’t get to the net where guys like him with an average shot have to go to score goals. Basically the same player that he was in junior but with a better defensive awareness.
I’m not sure I would discard him yet … if he ever grows some hair on his chest and starts coming to the rink with a kind of work rate that guys like Hyman do, he could still become an impact player.
The regular season is not the playoffs, and we need soldiers like McLeod to help with the grind of another 82 game schedule.
Stauff things Perry will be back on a bonus laden deal.
Better not be games played bonuses but real production targets.
Stauff wants to trade Ceci, bring back Vinny and sign Hayden Fleurey.
What’s so great about Hayden Fleury? Do we need to restock the leftorium again?
If Fleury comes at the NHL minimum…
Vancouver appears to be preparing for a big signing or two. Really do not want to see that team get better…
They didn’t. They have to gut their depth to keep the likes of Zadorov, Myers, and Lindholm. I’m OK with that.
Friedman reporting that the Nucks might be able to ditch Mikeyev’s contract on the Hawks for a 2nd round pick and the rights to Lafferty (UFA rights, no worth much – so a 2nd and 7th for a 2 X $4.75MM negative value contract).
The deal is Mikheyev, the rights to Lafferty and a 2025 second round pick in return for a 4th round pick in 2027.
Mikheyev has to approve the deal since he had limited trade protection but Seravalli is saying that is likely a formality because his agent was involved in setting up the deal.
@frank_seravalli
Here’s the full details:
To Blackhawks: Ilya Mikheyev, 2027 2nd Rd Pick, pending UFA Sam Lafferty
To Canucks: 2027 4th Rd Pick
Canucks are retaining 15% on Mikheyev.
What? No Hairy Hands to tell us all what should be noted about this trade.
No Hairy Hands telling us how shrewd this move was and that the Oilers have been left behind by the clever manoeuvring of the stink-fish?
How will we ever comprehend the magnitude of this move?
If we do land Pesce, I hope there is no trade protection. If Wanner passes him on the depth chart, we can trade him for a decent pick like Boston just got for Ullmark.
I’ve seen a bit of chatter that Pesce isn’t coming to Canada but can’t find a source. Alexander Carrier was talked about as a TDL target. He’s an FA, his puckiq numbers look alright, but so do Ceci’s, is he an upgrade on Ceci? Do we just go with Broberg and Desharnais and wait for Wanner?
The New Jersey Devils are prominent in rumours about a Pesce destination.
He is from Tarrytown NY just across the river.
Campbell has the ability to play when the pressure is off and nothing is expected. It’s fair to say that nothing is expected. What if Skinner or Pickard falter? Wouldn’t it be worth having Campbell as a backup, rather than eating his cap hit on a buyout, or having less draft capital for future trade deadline additions?
I think the context of the team determines the path, it’s not the same for all
For the Oilers, I don’t think Connor is going anywhere, I doubt Leon is. Jackson understands the player point of view obviously, and I think he probably understands the cap better than the people that were there before him. Agents, or top agents, have to know it inside out to negotiate and know the team’s ability to pay what for how long
I think they know what they can pay moving forward to the top 3. In my looks into it, they can pay Connor Leon and Bouch and be comfortable. If Nurse stays it’s tight, but they can divest when his trade list comes on the year after Connor’s new one starts. Jack’s money needs to come off
The ‘win now’ thing and depleting the org was a bad direction to me. Yes the Duo had extensions, but what lack of confidence or conversation would lead them down the path that there were only 2 years and they would go if they didn’t win? I think that was a media narrative based simply on when the contracts ended. There was no indication at all either were unhappy in that way. Drafted players rarely jump ship off a good team. Nash left Columbus but they were horrible
And, the Cup didn’t happen. Now we are here, and Leon has to make a choice or be dealt, no Cup. The poor judgement was in that Connor has years of top level hockey left, barring injury. He’s the world’s best player, not a top player that will drop off faster and more. The way to go forward was to do the best you could each summer, build the team you want, and add around the edges not using up your top picks or prospects at the deadline
Holland burnt a lot of assets, the only top player he got was Ekholm. Ekholm put them up a level, the other additions didn’t put them over, I think that’s because your core is what does that, the additions are for depth and shouldn’t be expensive. Adding Guentzel didn’t put the Canes over either. To me it’s too late to fix bigger problems at that point. Injuries are different
So how are they going to keep icing a strong team that can support the Duo and Bouch? They need all of their cap available to sign UFA depth which has no asset cost. I think and Gregor thinks UFAs want to come because they are competitive and have Connor, it’s not the DoD anymore. You can find value if you can negotiate and run the team well. Zito did a ton of that
I don’t think Henrique at 34 and Carrick should have cost a 1st, that should have been used to divest Jack. But that ship has sailed. There is more value moving forward to not have dead cap so there is flexibility. Spending assets to get rid of Jack means being stronger in the future years of Connor doing his thing, going for Cups. They have a few prospects coming along that should help in the interim, make sure you give them everything to do that – Jackson hired someone to do that. Spend a little more, go stock the farm however you can, and stop signing bad deals and wasting picks, and in a year or two it will balance out and they can compete at the top until Connor is too old to
— Carrick for a first was just bad asset management full stop. So was AA for a pair of seconds. Thats a massive amount of free options sent out the door for very little.
— The Ekholm for a first and removal of Barrie : that a good example of giving to get.
— Hopeful next GM does more Ekholm moves and less of the latter.
— I wonder when and who next GM is announced? I bet. It will be a sneaky good hire in hindsight. Our new coach was an astute move (and I was worried it was a get-McDs- old-coach-to-keep-him-happy)
The next GM needs to start finding younger players, emerging talent, and value contracts.
It’s incredible that Zito got Reinhart for a 1st and a former 7th round pick goalie.
There are much better prices for players during the summer than the trade deadline. Holland mostly made deadline trades for vets.
You may be missing a part of that transaction.
Geez.
— ? Henrique + Carrick for first = not good asset management for 34 and 32 year old on expiring contracts.
That’s not what you said. You said Carrick for a first, you didn’t mention Henrique. You also didn’t mention that included 50% retained on Henrique
I also disagree that it was poor asset management as Henrique was a perfect fit and covered his cost and might re-sign at a discount.
You know what isn’t good asset management – trading a 1st, a 4th and a prospect to rent a terrible Ben Chiarot – the move of cup winning GM.
Like, the biggest part of the transaction. Such a strange take. That was HH worthy if not a mistake. I’m assuming mistake.
— yeah as per below. They “survived” this year burying him. I’d try to see what you get on a backup less pressure role.
— A non-buyout is just so much better asset management. 10 starts before trade deadline decent then trade him salary retained for 2.5 season vs 6 of buy out …
The Oilers, this past season, had something like $3.9 m in “buried cap penalty” for Jack Campbell. I had advised buying him out last summer.
Imagine what we could have done at this past deadline with another $3.9m in cap space (+ accrued cap).
Derek Ryan’s a popular guy around here. Not to knock him, but he played 19 playoff games with a 16.7% goal share (4.41 ga/60).
I was also on the “buyout Campbell” train.
If Anaheim trades John Gibson I could see the Oilers retaining on Campbell and sending him to the Ducks.
100% No. This is straight forward. No one is trading a cap dump with term, hasn’t happened yet, not happening now. Campbell’s buyout is relatively cheap and the cap space can be more efficiently used elsewhere. The contract is a sunk cost. Buyout and move on.
if the oilers re sign all of Drai Bouch Mcdavid and only end up with 1.5 million dead cap space; sorry but thats a win in my eyes
— I’d LTIR Kane and have Campbell try to salvage backup role on a team that plays good out of gates. Goalies rise from dead
— reality is the New GM will pull out the guide rule book, look up “incoming GMing roster moves” and see it says new guy gets free pass to buy-out 1 player at start of their regime.
LTIR is not necessarily advantageous in the summer.
— who cares when it’s done. That’s not the point. It would be advantageous when it’s done if they pull a Vegas type playoff return for Kane.
So Kane is deemed out for the season?
Please….
No matter how super zombie Campbell is in a resurrected back-up role no GM is going to let him ride into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. I would hope!
Think Texier would be a smart move, has a lot of skill that hasn’t quite popped at the NHL level, went through some personal stuff that might have stunted his progression. Think he has top six skill if he can figure the league out.
Not sure Columbus would have much interest in Ceci.
They have a lot of RD options both in veterans and prospects.
Vincent got fired because he wouldn’t play the young players, particularly their young D.
Read today that Todd McLellan is the leading candidate for that head coaching job.
Apologies if this has been discussed, but I see Jeff Skinner will be bought out.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I’m getting the same “it just makes sense” feeling I got from when we signed Barrie, and later Perry.
This is a guy who still has a role as a depth scorer, made a hell of a lot of money, and has never played in the playoffs. We’re a team who could use some depth, don’t have a tonne of money, and are a playoff favourite.
I’m not sure he’s the right add for what’s missing. They need some grumpy 2 ways guys that can score when the chance is there. Maybe if they can get the right mix on a line with him, but from what I know he’s not a two way hard nosed type, or basically a playoff type
Would be too confusing for Jack M with 2 Skinners
Jeff Tamzarian?
Friend of mine just sent me a link to a poster on X (twitter) from Scottie Upshall, that Ken Holland may be talking to the Chicago Blackhawks about a role there. https://dailyhive.com/edmonton/oilers-holland-linked-blackhawks-upshall
When does the GM speak to the media?
Jeff Jackson speaks tomorrow at 11:30 (mountain).
Gregor thinks Campbell will be bought out.
He thinks Brown and Jamark will come in around $1MM (I think Brown will be higher).
He thinks Vinny may test the market and circle back.
Things the org has had some talks with Perry – they like his leadership – it would be league min and as the 12/13F. OP worries about bonuses as Perry did negotiate lame games played bonuses in to his current contract.
I agree OP, I don’t envision Brown signing for close to $1M.
I prefer they move on from Perry.
I prefer they keep him, not to rely on him as a regular, but to guide and be a leader with massive relevant experience for where they are at. 13/14 with Ryan, neither need to play every game given their ages and temperaments
Also I think they need to up their game getting to the net with better quality chances. To me it’s very inconsistent and often there isn’t really a good chance available other than a lucky bounce
We get scored on a lot with more direct and intended tactics, would be a good add to the offense. That is Perry’s wheel house if he wants to give guys some pointers, and from what I read he does. Might be a good tandem with the incoming skills coach
Holland is gone. There shouldn’t be any bonuses. The bonus is playing with Connor. That nonsense has to end, especially for a 40 YO with est. 92.5M US in career earnings
Finally back in Edmonton after a day plus of airport weirdness…ugh.
Much as “they just needed to be better”, which is very very true, the two plays that will haunt me because my seats had an absolutely perfect view of them (much like on the positive side with the Pisani game 5 goal in ‘06), are the feeling of my eyes going wide and my inner defenceman screaming NOOOO! as Brett Kulak drifted inside instead of riding his man into the boards, and Zach Hyman in front of the net with the puck within reach and nothing but air between it and the net…but the heel never got down even if the toe did. That goal was already in in my mind as soon as I saw where the puck stopped and who was in position.
Not the memories I was hoping for. YouTube clips had me conditioned that Adam Henrique would be the man to end it, probably on a tip.
Lots of beat up fans straggling home right along with the beat up squad. At least the sun is shining.
Rich memories, but painful ones all the same.
You also got to celebrate Janmark’s beauty in the building where it happened. Savour it for those of us who weren’t there.
Proud of the 5000 Oiler fans who made the trip.
I am shocked to see LT slotting McLeod in as 4C.
Draisaitl: “I love being an Oiler more than anything”
Let the good times roll
Haven’t had a chance to listen to any of the interviews yet but some quotes out there, to paraphrase:
Drai with a beauty answer to “the question”. He will talk to the Oiler and find out what they want. Loves playing in Edmonton. Its going to take time to figure out what he wants and what the Oilers want. “I love being an Oiler more than anything”.
Coach says Leon battle rib and finger issues – they didn’t know if he was going to be able to play on many nights.
Coach not sure how bad Connor’s injury is, will let medical staff discuss it.
Janmark says he doesn’t think he’ll be turning down a ton of money to say, as he doesn’t think there will be much out there – lol – he referenced 4G and 12P – he gets it. Also mentioned its ALL about winning
Brown says his heart is in Edmonton and its where he wants to be – loved the support through the year.
Henrique said it was a ton of fun. Loved Edmonton. Winning is a big factor.
Foegele talks about losing to the cup champs four years in a row and it stings. His first time being a UFA an not sure what to expect.
“Hopefully I’ll have at least one call. If not, I’ll take what I can get” – Vinny. “You’ll have some calls, bud” – Brown.
“The belief has never been higher” – McDavid.
Thanks for the quotes.
Can’t expect Leon to be thinking about contract right now. I think it’s a good sign if a player is so dialed in to the playoffs that it takes a few days to get their head straight about off-ice matters.
I hope Brown will take a discount to stay. He’s taking a lot of money off our cap next year. Would love to have Janmark and Brown back in the <$1.5M category. Given that Henrique will probably be double to triple that…is he really worth it?
I’d like Foegele back, if he’s willing to take a pay cut.
I think Des will take a discount to stay, and I’d like to see him back. You can never have too many actual NHL players.
Of all the players, Brown sounded like the one that was most locked in to being back. At the same time, if the Oilers are offering $1.5MM and another decent team is offering $3MM….. could happen.
Janamark was next – talked about the Oilers likely being one of 2-3 options – I think he’d take a couple of years of term at not much over a million.
Foegele’s availability was great – I really do like when he speaks. When talking about how great it is to play in Edmonton he even went so far to say its more than the fans and players – even the staff are all great. He also understands that its his first shot at UFA status and he did have a legit productive season.
Vinny kind of made it sound like he’s going to market to see what offers are out there – talked about, well, if I only get one offer, I’ll take what I can get but I think he wants to get paid which makes sense, he doesn’t have “life security” type money in the bank, right?
Henrique talked alot about family. Winning and playoffs was great but needs to talk about what is to be prioritized. Its not money (so he says) but I’m sure he’s not taking a 50% discount to market to uproot his family to a different country and totally different type of year long lifestyle.
Maybe it’s my optimism, but I actually came away thinking Henrique was closer to a lock for us – apart from his glowing endorsement of the team and culture in Edmonton, he referred to being in a position now where money was not his primary motivator, that there’s a price to be paid for playing on a winning team like Edmonton and how doing so has reignited his passion in the game.
But yeah, in hindsight he also did mention “trying to prioritize for myself and my family what is the most important thing”, so it probably does come down to what the family consensus is regarding living in Edmonton with a lower salary.
I don’t disagree with your synopsis – maybe I’m putting too much stock in the family stuff – His daughters are so young that they wouldn’t be uprooted from anything being moved (an baby and one under 2 years old).
No you’re right though, having a young family like that does factor in heavily here and he certainly seems like a pretty grounded, family-oriented kinda guy.
Like a lot of others I love your proposed roster. Don’t know Texier but assume he has some wheels (always a good thing). IMHO the Oilers need a little more grit so I would like to see a Kostin type brought in. Someone who’s a good skater, rugged as a rough cut plank, and not afraid to toss ’em. With Kane injured the playoffs became a free for all for opposing players on the Oilers best players. Their hands and wrists were hacked non-stop (still waiting to hear what injury Draisaitl suffered). No calls by the refs of course (because the NHL is, after all, the only *Major League* in the world that, on purpose, does not protect it’s star players) so that means the Oilers just have to do it themselves. Should be an interesting summer!
I think Raphael Lavoie ends up on the roster because of this. He’s big and seems to have figured out the hitting part in addition to having some skill. That being said, more experienced players with toughness would be ideal
I love your roster LT as it would be a massive upgrade from the Oct 2023 roster. I guess dare to dream on Pesce. 5 would be reasonable but that number is likely going to be higher and rumors are he is going to stay out east.
Returning with that Henrique line alone would be a coup
I liked watching them play, but am not sure what to think about their stats. Weren’t pretty. Could have been the lack of support from the D they played with
Bottom line is they have to get three more lines at least breaking even in goals and shots. This is where a GM with a clear vision along the lines of what seems to be coming out – didn’t like all the fly by’s and non responses to big hits and rough housing
We can LTs roster shows it. I’ve even simulated following year and it still works with Drai’s contract.
The parallels with 2006 is astonishing: going down early, injuries to key players creating negative expectations (Roloson vs Draisaitl), getting back into the series with valiant team efforts, crushing them in Edmonton in game 6, and coming up just a bit short in game 7.
This one hurts more, for me. Not because I expected them to win or hoped any more than I did in 2006, but because I truly appreciate now just how many random variables have to come out in your favour just to get the chance to play for the SC. I love this team so much and its players. It would have been a dream to see them celebrate greatness.
That 2006 team was just so unexpected, I think many of us were so thankful for every game we got to see past the first round. This year, I knew this team had the horses needed to win a SC. Knowing just how possible it is and then roaring back from 0-3 to get the chance, it’s absolutely hearbreaking to see the guys come up 1 goal short.
Losing by a goal in Game 7 is just so close to not losing. I wonder how much one could honestly criticize much on this team. We can say it ‘shouldn’t’ have been this close but unless you’re changing the way the game is played like the late 2010s Pens, crushing anyone in the SCF sure seems to be a thing of the past (unless the other side has critical injuries).
Given all these injuries and structural team flaws, they came together and played for each other. I believe their injuries finally caught up to them and its a product of having all hands on deck since mid-November. There’s no shame in this. They were good enough to win.
I love this team. GOILERS
For me, the random variable factor has me feeling better about 24 than 06. This team has found ways to get better every year, lost to the cup champs three straight times and each time put up a harder fight until this year when they were literally as close to getting it without getting it as is possible. They have a plan to improve again, and sustain for a few years at least. 06 stung, especially after Pronger bounced, because at that point it was event horizon. I have a feeling (and hope) we are more likely to see 24 as an 83 than an 06.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/watch-live-oilers-meet-media-after-cup-final/
Listened to Stauff’s spot on Oilers Now from yesterday (Escott hosted, by just came on for 15).
In response to some texts about the Oilers getting outhit by Florida, Bob mentioned the Vancouver as well. He then went in some specifics about the Oilers D getting murdered off some icing wave-offs and there was no response by the Oilers and lots of forward fly-bys. He then alluded to a possible change in the make-up of the team because of that.
No names mentioned but, to me, that screams McLeod (and maybe Foegele).
Later in the show he mentioned:
1) “will be a concerted effort to re-sign Pickard.”
2) “something has to give on defence, Deharnais is a free agent, does something happen with Ceci? Broberg isn’t going anywhere and I don’t think Kulak is going anywhere.”
3) “Jamark and Brown, I think they’ll make an effort to sign, Henrique? but I just have a feeling something else may be in play here. Logic dictates we’lll see a bit of a move”
Those are direct quotes from Bob.
Knobber also has a history of having teams ready for the season – he’ll have team playing better zone defence
Vancouver’s big dumb ogres on D were a huge problem for us. Man I wish Nashville had won that series.
Thx for posting this
Thanks for the updates on this today and all year long!
The last time management made a decision based on perceived lack of playoff physicality we ended up with Ryan Freaking Spooner.
We came up one goal short in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. I sure hope the new management group is less emotional in their decisions than the past.
I like the idea behind the roster LT
Parkatti & Co are needed in a big way tout suite. By eye the JHB line looked good. By numbers everybody was mostly getting fed not playing with Connor, Holloway, Janmark and sometimes Foegele (when he wasn’t bleeding GA and losing puck battles)
The common point here is speed. It makes a massive difference in playoffs when there is no space and hits are coming. Also better skaters keep their pace over time and keep far more pressure on the defence, can take time away
Even still JHB line ran a SF% of 37.84 and a SCF% of 40 over 49.5 minutes. I use those stats because the sample is so small but that’s the heart of the game
This is why I have mentioned that a few tweaks isn’t going to make enough of a difference. They got to SCF G 7 and lost by a goal. But we shouldn’t discount how hard it was for them to get there, historically hard, and to me with Connor it shouldn’t be like that
I also wouldn’t count on that as a plan. They need to get to the heart of why the team has so much trouble, at least in the playoffs, with Connor off. That is the key to creating a team that can win with skill and determination that doesn’t need to be lucky, just not unlucky
I think the biggest problem in general is assertiveness. A team can have a couple of players that are milder in nature, if they bring something unique or you can’t trade them because of onerous movement clauses. But as we see, a team like Florida that lacks the high end skill and wins by drive and group play will try to run you out of the rink. The Dys did. La did. They all will now if they can to try to have a chance
The Oilers weren’t intimidated, but over the playoffs the Oilers got beat up. They don’t have guys playing inside in the O zone enough. I am pretty firm on that I don’t want Duo or Bouch leading the physical charge. It’s folly. They are needed for their skill and if they are too banged up as we saw that they couldn’t do what they do when healthy enough
Leon is a bigger guy. Connor is not. He is also terrible at hitting. Leon still should avoid getting hit and use his brain and skill – 2 playoffs now he was hurt and useless before them losing. It’s too risky to hit and get hit more than necessary, if you want to win Cups, for the guys that drive the team. I didn’t see Barkov nailing people much, or Ekblad. Slashing yes
It’s also BS that they ‘have’ to lead in that way. They should finish checks and pin guys when appropriate, but not try to hit. They should focus as Wayne was on not getting hit. The greatness of a career is largely determined by how long you can play, and getting too many injuries that you might have avoided is everything
Kane should be rough, it’s his game. Hyman should do more, they are bigger guys. Holloway does. The main thing is that the rest of the team has to carry that load, especially the bottom 6 and bottom 2 pairs. I think that the best players are trying to do it because so many others won’t enough is poor roster construction
So the role players need to be more assertive and physical. And be able to skate as I see it. Could be these guys, I don’t think some are going to get there. I’m ok with Ryan and Perry as 13/14 because of unique things they have. The team needs to be faster and much saltier
The second thing is they need 3 pairs that can get the puck back and get it up to good places. Good at both bluelines. It will greatly improve the depth scoring and 5v5 GA. I said they need more rough quick players, but that never comes over ability. It’s more about attitude. I’m not sold on Bro playing RS. The numbers are not good. Maybe 3rd pair, I would be looking to move BK and CC and get 2 RS D, to get the best out of Bro
So easily they could turn over 4 players, and that’s fine if it makes the team stronger. Sather always brought fresh players in, it keeps the drive up. The season after they may look into some hard conversations, I don’t expect it this summer, and they don’t need to if they make non core improvements and build a more balanced group
Well said, too many players would not go to the hot spots looking for pucks.
Thanks
When I think about what would make them better, it always goes to that the way Sather built them back then is still how to do it now, when you have the best player in the world
Let Connor and Leon drive offensive attack and keep them on their heels, make sure they have the right help, and when they aren’t on it’s another wave coming at you either with skill (hard to do in a capped league) or speed and aggression. Give them no easy shifts against the Oilers. It tires the other team mentally and physically. It’s also easier mentally and physically to attack than defend, and more fun
It is better to be the hammer than the nail; I believe constant contact wore the Oilers out. My spouse is not a fan at all but went to a finals game for work, and she commented that the Oilers did not seem to get in front of the net much, either for chasing loose pucks or rebounds. I was very worried about flybys as well. I think they have too many soft guys (I don’t mean we need fighters), but we need more guys who hate on the other team.
Maybe the ’24 Oilers watching the Panthers forecheck will be like the ’83 Oilers watching the Islanders dressing room. We can hope.
Tinkering is exactly what’s needed here in my opinion. The shopping list (assuming JHB stays together) is literally – 2RD to replace Ceci (this is the big one), Foegele replacement, and possibly a Kane replacement. I guess you could try and replace McLeod, but given our cap crunch I think you just have to make room for him. I am also hopeful this playoff run showed him what he needs to do to take the next step, and he works on being more assertive and getting to the tough areas more.
I think Knoblauch is on record saying he doesn’t want the team to hit – that the goal is puck possession. I think this runs in line with what you said, but it seems to me that people looking for crashers and bangers on a KK team might just be disappointed. The annual injuries to our top guys is a concern – you really notice the level of play drop off by round 2. That said, if we can avoid LA next year then maybe the injury list won’t be so long.
OP put some quotes up. I don’t want bangers, I want aggressive players that won’t let anyone take a run, and want the puck more than the other guys
I am not a proponent of looking to hit first, but you can’t don’t want to take as many unanswered hits as they did. Either don’t get hit, or hit back
Also, I was going to mention to drewbot, it’s unacceptable that Connor was left alone getting mugged by Bennett and Turtle. Can’t. Happen. Ever.
They need players that know when to jump and get into it. If you delay as they did then you risk a 3rd man in and I think that is why that happened. But that to me shows a complete lack of what is needed. You can’t allow other teams to think anything but it’s coming immediately. It’s how they got players off Gretzky mostly
It should be hard wired that if you go at Connor it’s immediate. That is how they need to play all season so the tone is set by playoffs
Even just finishing checks consistently might have made some quantum of difference. Way too many skate-aways looking at the conduct of the roster as a whole.
Except for the small old guy and the two best players, who ended up too injured
That is the problem,and why they lost game7.Knobby didn’t want them to hit,but have puck protection.Hard to keeep,the puck when getting hit all the time,and not hitting back!
Even just finishing a rub out or pin makes a massive difference in getting the puck back and breaking out. I notice it a lot in games, probably because they aren’t consistent enough with it
Watching Ceci chase the puck back and forth behind the net and not getting to it or the player was hard
So what to do with McLeod? $2.1M for a 4C seems like a bit of a luxury – especially next year when you have Brown’s $3.25M bonus and Neal’s $1.9 on the books. Although he’s excellent defensively and on the PK, he doesn’t produce any offence from the middle and oh yeah he’s Captain Flyby and doesn’t like hitting. For $2.1M he has to be higher up the lineup which puts him on the wing – where he seems to play better and get more involved.
Maybe he’s part of the package that let’s you move Campbell? Does Grier take Campbell & McLeod for Kostin?
You shouldn’t move on without a replacement but I don’t think he’s right for this team. The GM could have a chat and lay it out, I don’t see him changing that much. And that’s fine, there’s a place for him, just not the Oilers
He also wasn’t good defensively when it mattered. Someone will be interested if they like analytics and his speed. I would package him to move Campbell. For me they need to be a much nastier team. It takes that option away as an easy tactic
They don’t get intimidated anymore but teams are still trying to do it. Old Oilers – the most skilled and meanest team in the league
This would make my summer! Absolutely love it.
Ryan was one of the only players,along with Holloway to finish their checks.
Need more aggressive players that are willing and able to target the other team’s skill players: hit them mostly in the numbers, skate check/trip, grab them by limb or jersey, rabbit punch after the whistle maybe knock down the goalie while they’re at it, with a ~10:1 act:penalty ratio.
Don’t bring a knife to a gun fight
If that’s what they do respond in kind
Also why I make room for Perry. If you want to learn how to play greasy learn from the best
What do you mean by “historically hard”?
It sounds like you think it was easIer for the Panthers and previous SCF combatants to reach the Finals than for the Oilers. What makes you think this?
From articles up during the playoffs. Number of games played, elimination games, down in series
Also they faced better teams based on season stats. There’s been a lot of things written. It’s always hard, but not always that hard. The cleaner you go through the better. The Panthers were so beat up last year the final was a foregone conclusion.
This year we were. That they could have won is quite impressive. I think the talent difference allowed that
It took the Oilers 18 games to reach the finals. It took the Panthers 17.
The Oilers played in 1 elimination game to reach the finals. The Panthers played in zero.
On the way to the finals the Panthers beat the league’s top team. The Oilers beat the leagues #2 team.
Thanks for looking that up. They were probably referencing the finals as well.
With a new GM coming in is their an overhaul of front office staff? Some are the new Presidents men others have Holland’s name literally all over them.
Much of the overhaul has already happened. New POHO. new coach, new head scount, new head of player development.
The Oilers have to now clear out some bad contracts.
Ceci, Campbell, Kane, Nurse (not possible),
I like Kulak, but he’s expensive for the 3rd pair.
How did Zito find Mikkola for $2.5m for their second pair?
Slowly coming to grips with the loss. I really thought we would win it, but it’s okay. Next year! I’m still majorly disappointed in how many people acted in the Ice District on game night. That was a total gong show, I had a bad feeling about everything right from 3 PM onwards because of that. Call me crazy, but I’m a karma guy, watching thousands of people act so selfishly to jam in line, cut people off, and act like assess… not good.
Optimistic about the future though. Our blue line suddenly looks a lot better going forward with Bouchard and Broberg both having arrived. And yes, Broberg has arrived – what he did would have been insanely difficult for a veteran, let alone a kid. He’s real.
This Draisaitl scenario is tricky. 100% makes sense for the Oilers to trade him if he won’t commit – they could get a haul. But how long can they, should they wait? By the time he decides, teams may have already spent their money – especially contenders who need to spend to the cap, or close to it, to get their rosters set up shortly after free agency opens.
If Draisaitl says in mid July that he hasn’t decided, have the Oilers waited too long? What options will remain? The next 5 days will be critical.
Drai will re-sign. Book it!
Can we trade Cody Ceci for a mid-round pick as oppossed to Carrier and pencil Lavoie on to the roster?
Otherwisde, I very much like that lineup but will post my quibbles/discussion points:
1) I think $4MM is about right for Henrique vis-a-vis the market but my HOPE is that he can come in a bit lower. I am really nervous about committing to real cap to a player that turns 36 in the season that has the extensions for Drai and Bouch kicking in.
2) If Broberg is at $1.2MM, I think it should be a 2-year term. If its just for one year, the new GM needs to “Holland it” and grind him down to his QO which is below $900K. He needs to give an extra season if he wants that raise, in my opinion.
3) 2 months ago, $1.2MM for each of Janmark and Brown sounded very reasonable (maybe even overpays) but GMs DO put stock in to playoff performances and often overpay based thereon.
I think Janny may sign for about $1.5MM for a few years (and likely gets offers closer to $2MM based on the the small playoff sample). I think Connor Brown will get signifigant offers.
He basically showed in the playoffs that he’s fully recovered from his injury and year off and is priming. He was once valued at close to $4MM and I think the market could offer $3MM for him. I’m not sure we can get him back dirt cheap.
4) I wonder if Pickard’s solid back-up play this season, plus a couple of playoff games, gets him a $1.5MM offer in the market.
I would love to get Pics back below the fully buryable amount and look for him and Rodrigue to share 2G throughout the season.
5) Ryan is under contract but Noah Philp might take his job once he’s back up and running – he was so good at the end of last season.
Have we heard the full extent of the injuries to Oilers? I’ve heard something vague about McDavid’s abdomen, but nothing concrete about Draisaitl, or Kane, Nurse, etc.
At ON there was a piece, Drai broken finger and rib
Nurse is who we saw. There’s been no injury
I do wonder what happened to him that game in which they shut him down after that hit. I think he played like 3 minutes total in that game
There was one player interview when asked about Nurse made some supportive “he’s playing great given what he’s dealing with” kind of statement. He then quickly made it seem health related and then changed the topic. Obviously, I may have just been reading into something that wasn’t there, but we don’t know what we don’t know and maybe there is/was something outside hockey that was in his head. And before the he’s a pro and should put that aside in the playoffs, I suggest to you that if there is something in the background it’s pretty hard to shut that out for 2 months + no matter who you are.
Either that or the extra speed in the playoffs goes just beyond his hockey IQ, because physically he should have been a positive difference maker out there.
because you say so?
A professional doctor of the comments.
Most of anything official from the org will come out tomorrow when Jackson speaks.
I like the thinking and I like the look of that lineup.
A Campbell buyout seems inevitable, but I really wish a trade could be made instead, even with retention. Fracking goalies, man…
We always see role players on cup runs get overpaid in the offseason. So as much as I love Janmark and Brown, I see the Blake Coleman effect pricing them out of our market.
Holloway doesn’t seem a whole lot less established than McLeod was this past offseason and he’s getting $2.1M. It seems unlikely he takes almost half that, though I suppose he isn’t arbitration eligible like McLeod was. Broberg as well.
McLeod was grinded down to below his QO after his ELC expired.
Holloway has zero leverage. He’ll be below $1MM unless he takes 2-years in the $1.2MM range. Same with Broberg.
Janmark acknowledges he produced 4G/12A this season and there won’t be money out there for him to turn down.
Not sure the new GM will have Holland’s grinding skills.
I’m not sure there is enough change in this roster projection to win the cup.
My bubble players are Kane, McLeod, Ceci, Ryan and possibly Nurse. Upgrades at all these positions and we are a much better hockey team.
Nurse and Kane have NMC’s. People should stop wasting their mindspace trying to move them.
I’m not too worried about either players’ NMC. Players with NMC can be moved, unless you believe that employees want to stay with organizations that don’t want them.
Some fans may not want Nurse (and Kane) but I’m confidant their teammates and coaches do.
Not to mention, both these players have young families and roots in the community.
Also and especially Perry!
I wonder if LTIR becomes a lever for us this off-season. If McDavid does require surgery for his abdominal injury and assume that surgery happens after his wedding and that his recuperation will take time. Given that, could McDavid sit out the first month of the season? Might give us an additional $1.5M or so to use on the roster. Not insignificant given the stakes
I hope none of that happens. This team needs to get ahead of it from the start next year. They need 110-115 points next season to get home ice in (hopefully) at least 3/4 rounds.
Sorry, two last things I forgot to mention. First, I would not be surprised to see the Oil re-sign Perry next year. I think Leon and Connor like surrounding themselves with former stars with cups. Play him 4th line minutes and the minimum salary.
Second, is there a low-cost way to pry Arthur Kaliyev out of LA? One more first-shot scorer in the system can’t hurt.
Kane needs sports hernia surgery as well…might not be gtg game 1
I’ve never understood why they didn’t do the Mark Stone thing with Kane last year, or before deadline this year.
Maybe because the player didn’t agree to be shut down for the season when he was able to play through and the doctors obviously cleared him to play through?
From everything I’ve heard, the recovery from that should not be 3 months – heresay, of course.
You are misunderstanding LTIR, and how it works.
How does McDavid on LTIR for a month give us an addition $1.5MM to use on the roster?
Kane’s physical presence was seriously missed against Florida. If he can’t regain that style of play Oilers need to look for guys that will. There was not a lot of pushback to the hammering we took from the Panthers.
Healthy Kane would have made a huge difference. The $5.125M question is whether he will ever be healthy again. They need to keep him off the ice until he is fully 100%
A healthy Kane would have helped, but it’s a healthy Drai that would have made a huge difference.
Take the golden knights approach keep your dry
That’s easier to do in the desert.
Does John Carlson qualify as a RHD version of Ekholm? Two years left on his contract.
2 years left……. at $8MM.
Regressed to 52 points this season (in 82 games) with over half on the PP which he won’t get in Edmonton.
I like the line up.
I think there is a zero percent chance Pesce signs in Canada. I also think Henrique signs at a lower number.
I think the Oilers will have to trade for a RHD.
I would enjoy a swap of UFA rights with Foegele to the Preds for Alex Carrier to be that 2RD puck mover for Nurse (back up option to reunite with Ekholm and have Bouch move pucks for Nurse instead at times). Given the Demelo extension Carrier might be too rich for us now either way but a guy can dream.
Apparently Henrique has a young family in California, so we should probably expect him to return home a la Bugjstad.
I am pessimistic about Henrique signing for that reason, as well. But, I suppose, you never know what’s going through his mind right now (and his family’s).
Henrique and his wife are both Canadian. A return home would be… to Canada. Not similar to the Bjugstad situation at all.
Henrique has $55M in career earnings. At 34 we’ll find out if he’s in cup chasing mode, or flip flops on the way to school drop off mode.
From the quotes (will listen soon), out of all the roster UFAs, he sounded the least “committed” to returning.
Anyone else finding two months of playoff algorithms turning against you? I’m clicking everything non-hockey related to reset the thumbnail landscape. I am not ready to look at the Cup surrounded by Panther sweaters even out of the corner of my eye.
I actually found the algorithm really painful right in the midst of the run. So much vitriol against my team on those clickbait pages and it pained my heart. Now my Facebook is flooded with these awful Calgary fan accounts, but at least I can take solace in the fact that the Flames will just have to pick a new surrogate favorite next year.
I’m having the opposite problem 🙂
My initial reaction to the G7 loss was to take it in stride, to recognize the enormity of team’s achievement in overcoming so much adversity in the regular season and playoffs, and to salute these men for their effort. But over the past 24 hours, I can’t stop dwelling on how close they came to winning it all, and on the key decisions/plays that may have turned the tide.
1. Why did we have to go back to Nurse-Ceci in G1?
2. Why did Bouch have to leave the danger man unmarked in early game 7?
3. How could the Oil let a harmless looking play turn into a game winning goal in G7?
4. Assuming the injury rumors are true, why did the hockey gords afflict 29 and 97?
5. Why couldn’t 97 or 18 get a stick on the bouncing puck when Bob was down in period 3?
6. Why couldn’t we get one *%#@! bounce? More than one power play in G7?
This exercise sucks, so here’s my hopeful counterfactuals.
1. Front office trades for an undervalued asset like D. Toews for a reasonable cost.
2. Nurse returns to his form two years ago and Bro becomes a top-4 fixture.
3. A healthy 97, more driven than ever (if possible) goes 82 56 105 161 +58 next year.
4. The team commits further to defense awareness and we see fewer “freebies” next year.
5. Like the rats this run, the Oil enjoys much better health in the post season next time.
6. The thrill of a SC victory next year tastes even sweeter in light of this year’s loss.
I like the idea of bringing Pesce in as 2RD to play with Broberg. I’d trade Nurse for Marner and let Broberg run as 2LD with Kulak as backup plan. Dump Campbell – maybe Ceci as well – but you could always keep Ceci for his last year.
Been suggesting (Nurse for Marner) for a year or so now. I just can’t understand the lack of hockey sense that Nurse projects; he has all the tools to be a real difference-maker.
I, for one, would look at cap savings, let Marner walk as a UFA, and sign a steady 2RD and a crusty winger who is plenty physical for the playoffs. Broberg takes Nurse’s minutes and keep Vinny for 3RD and penalty kill. We needed more pushback through the entire playoffs, injuries can happen any time, but I feel if your players are constantly getting teed off on, it makes it more likely.
In other realistic trade proposals how about Nurse for Makar?
TOR might very well move Marner (he occupying the same space in the fans mind as Nurse) and they are desperate for dmen. Nurse is from the area and it’s one place he might agree to move to. What’s unrealistic about it. How about pointing out how it’s unreasonable instead of just making smart a** comments?
What’s unrealistic is that Marner has the 11th most points in the NHL over the last three seasons and is a legit offensive star. He actually is worth his cap hit, or close thereto, in the regular season – ya, ya playoffs but Nurse hasn’t performed in the playoffs either.
Even if one did think they were “even players” that are overpaid, why would the Leafs commit to an additional 6 years of negative cap?
“Oilers reportedly looking to re-sign ‘three or four’ of their pending unrestricted free agents” … My take on the free agents:
Move on from:
Troy Stecher
Corey Perry
The Heart Wants:
Vincent Desharnais
Warren Foegele
Sam Gagner
Head Agrees With Heart On:
Calvin Pickard
Mattias Janmark
Adam Henrique
Connor Brown
Agree with this 100%, Janmark – Henrique – Brown formed a championship calibre 3rd line. Not quite unicorns, but they defend by playing a strong possession game, chip in some timely goals, and of course contributed to a historic PK. My only worry is what Janmark and Brown will be looking for. 1.2 mill for each would be excellent, but I could see both wanting more given the run they just had.
I’ve been thinking Janny might get closer to $1.5MM but he, himself, said today, he won’t be giving up much money to stay as he doesn’t think there will be much out there – acknowledging his 4G/12P – I think he signs before July 1 – probably 2 year deal around $1.2MM.
Brown could get offered double, if not triple, the AAV – the league saw that “he’s back”. Out of all that spoke today – he LOVES Edmonton so we’ll see.
Brown will be interesting. I suspect if he resigns with Edm. it means he’s left $ on the table to stay here
I would like to think we’re in that phase of the Cup Window by now, where players realize their interest in doing so.
Sounds like the org wants Perry back at league min for the 12F/13F dressing room buy.
I don’t think the team should run back the same top 6 as this year. If they can find a way to move Kane, I think they should run with that opportunity. He doesn’t have good chemistry with Drai and he’s on the wrong side of 30 with a career altering wrist injury.
LTIR seems more realistic than him waiving. But I agree. Was a great signing and gave it his all but I don’t see him returning to form.
Slats calls it a career.
Does Slats know there’s an opening in Edmonton!?
Even though Arvidsson is always broken down I would like to see if we can’t get him on a one year deal
I like him or Duclair as potential options, ideally a 1 year deal if they don’t find term to their liking on the open market.
I love that line up. Plus, having Hamblin is like an extra 4th line winger who can bring speed and sensibility when needed.
So, um, who in the organization is, like, making decisions about stuff?
Obviously they’ve got a transition plan in place, but it seems odd to run Holland’s “Continue?” count down to zero and just wave goodbye from the shoreline, doesn’t it?
In the world of business, Holland is out. That would Jeff Jackson has been running the show since Jack Campbell was sent to Bakersfield. The transition has already taken place.
You think JJ takes on the GM role, or that he’s got his guy in the wings?
That would be a great roster.
Although I don’t like that second line
Agree. Kane/Drai haven’t been good together. I think 29 needs speed on both sides.