Sam O’Reilly is a rare item on the Oilers first-round draft board over the last 15 years. He is a rugged player who counts neither foot speed nor offensive brilliance on his resume. I see many fans calling this a wasted pick compared to the pure offensive types chosen in recent seasons.
I would respectfully suggest that comparing O’Reilly to men like Dylan Holloway misses the fact this prospect was chosen No. 32 overall (Holloway was No. 14). I think a more reasonable comparable (in terms of draft value) is Reid Schaefer. If you expect Dylan Holloway, cut your engines and cool your wings. If you expect Reid Schaefer, I think this fellow has a few more gears. As always, waiting five years is the best idea. Perhaps look back at what people were saying as recently as (looks it up) March about Philip Broberg as a guide.
AFTER DAY ONE
KHL forward Nikita Artamonov is the lone top-20 player on my list who remains available on Day 2. The Oilers don’t draft until No. 64, Artamonov will be long gone by then. The style of the player Edmonton traded up to select (Sam O’Reilly) may offer us a clue about what we can expect today.
This shows two things: There is some weird wizardry with font size on this graph. How I had this in my computer photos and couldn’t guess Edmonton picking Sam O’Reilly is baffling. Also, there’s plenty of talent left in the second round. Among the men who are listed here and undrafted, I would suggest none fit the two-way, agitator, in your face style of Sam O’Reilly. Brock Otten compares O’Reilly to Scott Laughton, I don’t see another here. Very talented players, though.
From this list, I think Spencer Gill, Luke Ashton and Charlie Elick would fit the new world order we’re seeing the Oilers pursue since adding names like Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe.
From this group, I think Adam Jecho of the Edmonton Oil Kings might fit the bill and I hope the Oilers consider Nathan Villeneuve as an option.
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
There are miles and miles of terrific prospects available in day two. It seems NHL teams caught the “big man” fever and chose the Ben Danford Project over pure talent. It happens. The Oilers faded Shane Doan in his draft year because Steve Kelly had blinding speed and the Edmonton franchise wanted speed that summer. Just a few years later, the club was picking Coke machines left, right and center in search of Shane Doan. Still later, when Taylor Hall was the star in Edmonton, the organization pined for Milan Lucic. Now, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as the impact talent, we are watching the team chase the next Ken Linseman. Rest assured, we’ll be looking at high skill selections in due time.
For those who wonder about Michael Parkatti’s role in the selection of O’Reilly, he is exactly the kind of player Parkatti’s work uncovers. I don’t know for a certainty, but would guess that we’ll find out this player was far from the skilled linemates and made his way with fewer minutes than we might expect. There are ways to cipher this information. I believe Parkatti’s contributions will shine like a diamond today. I am also confident in the Oilers scouts. They finally have a pile of selections on a draft day, first time in years. I know these are late selections, but the possible reward (another Kyle Brodziak) can be enormously helpful to this organization.
Two things:
First, taken on its own,I really like the trade for the pick. We give up a future pick likely in a similar talent band of the draft. Assuming similar talent available in the drafts at that talent band, we get a player on board and developing earlier – a gain for us. It is top 12 protected, so we reduce risk exposure in the case of a materially poor season next year. WIth the condition that the surrendered pick becomes the 2O25 first if we trade the 2O26 first and loses the top 12 protection is also well thought out. By such time as we are likely to consider trading the 2O26 first – the 2O25 trade deadline – we will have clarity on whether we still need to consider the top 12 protection as impactful for us. If we are in a position at the trade deadline where the top 12 protection is a concern, we likely would not be in a position to consider trading the 2O26 first anyway.
Second, without knowing the better intel we can expect from a professional scout team, I like the O’Reillly pick. London is notorious for overplaying their top 6 forwards to an extreme degree, even when some of their bottom 6 forwards are deserving of more immediate opportunity. They ride their big horses HARD in London. Interestingly, this results in the more promising bottom 6 players in London often popping surprisingly well when they get increased opportunity after the previous big dogs matriculate. You really have to watch ice time allocation splits when looking at London players, more so than most other Junior teams. It is not uncommon for some London top players to be zoomed in their boxcars due to this extreme usage and some of the “big dogs in waiting” to have less than expected boxcars prior to their graduation to the top usage positions in their turn. Getting O’Reilly just before he gets to top lines in London has a high chance to be great value pick for when he was chosen.
In addition, O’Reilly was a decent defencemen for his age two years or so ago. He switched to wing and showed such good progression while keeping strong defensive play that his coaches quickly promoted him to centre. This past season as a centre was similar to his one year as a wing – solid defensive play, high hockey IQ, tenacious play and increasing offensive contributions as well. He could be a real steal when all is said and done. Context is important.
Godspeed young O’Reilly. I will watch your continued progression with avid interest!
I wanted to post just this: the cost to time-shift the same band of pick was surprisingly small, and the potential upside of the player surprisingly high.
A third point: the social media and perhaps locker room effects look pretty good. I misted up watching O’Reilly mist up reading the Draisaitl text out loud, and the kid oozes charisma more generally (unsurprisingly, the scouting reports praise his lockerroom contribution). And the team has a vested interest in selling key players on culture and team and a combined future, so a conspicuously aggressive play to foster culture again seems like a smart play.
Fine with the trade to get O’Reilly. If you have a guy siting in the 16-20 range on your board (which would be my guess) and you believe your pick next year is going to be pick number 32, then sure, do it. Bet may go side-ways but the play makes sense.
Goalie is fine at 64. Liked the Sundin pick, seems like a good use of pick 183 to grab a RHD. Liked the two C picks straight up. Well into the land of the fliers by then.
Only pick I don’t like is Clattenburg, usually a pick that far off the radar can be taken later, also, hitting is a secondary skill in today’s NHL. Meaning, they have to have some combination of good hockey sense and/or good speed and/or good skating and/or good defense to make it so that their hitting is useful to their play rather than a hindrance to the team’s play. I am wary of a player picked mainly because they are rambunctious. Late in round 5 is well into flier territory but… still.
Of course, if they had taken Sundin at 160 and Clattenburg at 183 it would have made more sense so what do I know.
Hah! And there you go, I like the Berry pick at 218 the best. Love me a shut-down d-man to root for.
Bruce Curlock loves the draft (except for the one off the board pick) and its his opinion on this I trust more than most anyone else.
Good enough for me!
I haven’t been following that closely, which is the off-the-board pick?
I think it was the Connor Clattenburg pick.
6-2 ,198 lbs. 19 years old, power forward. Makes it his mission to hit everything in his path, doesn’t score much. yet. Probably develop in Flint for a couple more seasons. Time will tell. I would say potential fan favorite in the making. Keep an eye on him for sure.
A different kind of Connor.
This looks like a draft from a rudderless ship. Only pick that seems ok is getting the top G prospect with a late 2nd. Otherwise first rounder for a maybe bottom 6 player, and a bunch of thrown away late picks.
Bah
Don’t be too quick to judge. It’s a crap shoot at this stage of the process. Bauer Berry just might be a player with the 218th pick. WOOHOO!!!
With the totality of EDM’s draft coming into view now, I think the concerns underlying the O’Reilly pick are gaining ground: what’s the ceiling?
O’Reilly (high floor, mid ceiling), Vinni (goalie), Clattenburg (19 year old that scored less than 0.5 pts/game in the OHL), and now Sundin (a soon-to-be 20 year RD with what appears to be limited offensive upside)
None of the skaters are noted as having good skating and I think it’s reasonable to question the ethos of this scouting regime.
Dalyn Wakely certainly posted some offense which is nice, but that’s another overager. Must be a particular aim for the team to fill in a bit of an organisational gap.
Okay.. I put out there trading Draisaitl to get younger, no injuries, lessen cap hell and refill the prospect pool and everyone went crazy like this is a storyline of the Fonz water ski jumping over sharks. I get it.
But listen – when your reply is loooonnnggger than LT’s blog, you lost the audience and the argument.
Somehow people think it was a waste to move up a first-round selection from a year or two away and somehow, this magical 32nd pick in a year or two will be a top 5 talent. While also complaining (LT has done this) that the prospect pool is thin. Oh… and that we should be drafting and developing (LT has thumped on the Bible for this). Oh and moreover, use analytics in the draft.
The Oilers drafted a player one to two years earlier (to speed up development), universally regarded as a player with a positive upside, with our analytics peeps at the table, and filled a need.
Rather – the argument against includes: that we should be ‘shooting the moon’ (whatever this means, and sounds more like shooting yourself in the foot), holding onto draft capital because a top-ten-rated talent might fall into our lap at the 32nd spot in a year or two (oh… and predicated that we will know what player is available at 32 in a year or two), draft, develop and fill need today (and do this in 6 months) because we cannot wait due to a window to win. Or somehow, by magic and sorcery, we should remain a top team because this will increase our chances of being included in the lottery. And because we do not have a GM or designate, we should get the NHL to delay the draft.
I am not sure how this young person will develop. But the Oilers did something to address an organizational, cost-controlled, development need. Seems to me that the nay-sayers are asking for the moon, the sun and all the stars.
Draisaitl is a top 5 player in the league. You don’t trade players like that who are under contract. End of story. This team has a 2-4 year window to win a cup or two. They have to go for it now and worry about the prospect pool later. This team will probably be bad when Connor turns 32 or 33, and that’s ok.
We were running low on Connors
I personally think O’Reilly is very similar to Philip Danault type of player, but Laughton is also comparable. Good call
Listening to his media availability, it sounds like this was also O’Reilly’s first year playing center. He was a winger previously, and a defenseman prior to that. Not sure what that means going forward, but for Hunter to put him at center on a deep team like he has shows something in there, and I hope he’s a guy who makes big jumps year to year as he grows into his role and gains more responsibility as a Knight.
In general, there are a few things I DON’T like about this pick and they have nothing to do with the player.
1. I never like it when teams make picks for a player because that’s what they need on the team now. By the time the player is ready to take on that role, that hole SHOULD be long filled. This isn’t the NFL and drafting to fill a hole on the roster is bad. It’s not even that this team has a prospect pool that’s deep and well rounded. It’s not great, and they really can’t afford to draft for a specific player type.
2. Drafting players who project to be 3rd liners don’t typically become 3rd liners. Looking at the 3Cs in the league, not many of them weren’t offensive players and top line Cs in junior in their draft years. That, or 17 year olds playing with grown men in Europe. Drafting like that is how you end up with the Kyle Chipchuras and Curtis Lazars of the world.
3. The fact that we made the pick at all. We don’t have a GM, and the guy running the draft is the head scout. Of course he’s going to be bullish about getting into the first and making a selection. But the head scout also doesn’t care about future picks as ammunition for deals to either cut salary or for making additions at the deadline. I’m not saying O’Reilly isn’t worthy of the 32nd selection in the draft. I do wonder if a GM would’ve made that trade at all though.
To your 3rd point think Schaefer to Nashville as part of the package for Ekholm.
You can increase the value of a draft pick same as you can devalue it.
I confirmed with Hart that the Oilers can still waive Campbell tomorrow for the purposes of the buyout.
It’s not spelled Hart, it’s spelled “Speeds”
Are we still doing that joke?
Yes.
artamonov to tulsky at 50.
I know absolutely nothing about prospects. I don’t follow any junior leagues. Some tidbits of info I’ve gathered from reading here and listening to a million podcasts over the years.
-A large number of players (I heard Marek say at one time that 50% of players in the NHL played in the GTHL). O’Reilly played in the GTHL. Ontario produces the most NHL players and the current team and management has tremendous ties to the province. Doesn’t seem like a bad idea to go shopping there, especially if you have scouts checking the quality and prices of all the produce.
-The London Knights are a top class Junior Club. Run very much like an NHL team. The rumours have been flying about a Hunter possibly being the next GM. I would imagine Jackson has had plenty of conversations with him.
-The London Knights were the OHL Champions and lost by a goal to the host team in the Memorial Cup final. It’s good to have players who have played in high stakes scenarios.
-O’Reilly moved from D to forward then from wing to Center. This screams High Hockey IQ.
-Parkatti is an “analytics guy” and has a voice in the room. Isn’t this what most here have been screaming for?
Just some rambling. I have no clue how O’Reilly will turn out.
Long time reader and 1st time poster. I will give you all some inside tidbit. Mark Hunter is the new Oilers GM, and he was mostly responsible for the Sam O’Reilly pick
Who are you? Who who, who who?????
long time Oiler fan who’s been reading for yrs and just had to post to share this info. It will be announced in coming days. Hunter is the GM, and Sam O’Reilly is like Tom Wilson, just not as tough. He was a rookie this yr and was excellent. Put up slightly better numbers than Easton Cowan in his draft yr and look at how that turned out. Rejoice Oil fans, we got a gem here. Better than Reid Schaefer. Mark Hunter will do wonders for this team
ok mr. back to the future, when can i expect this Kane trade?
also the majority of posters on this board are not fans of mark hunter.
Evander is not getting traded. We need more Kane’s in the playoffs, not less. A healthy Kane and we wlda won this yr
Sorry, but I healthy Kane wouldn’t have meant winning the SC. It may have, but Kane isn’t good enough to make it definite. Now a healthy Drai, that’s a definite win.
I’ll believe it when I see it. Thanks.
If you’ve been reading for years, then you know unsourced rumours are not allowed here. If this is merely your speculation then be honest and state it as so.
This is not rumour, it is fact. I know the ppl involved personally.
Ive seen others suggesting a GM deal is likely done and will be announced later, so I must be missing something, but I can’t think of a reason to delay such an announcement. Why would they?
One thing to consider on delays is the technicalities. They might not be able to actually replace Holland while he is still GM without there being potential legal/contractual issues. There are also questions of whether they are allowed to officially “talk” to the Oilers and if their contract allows the Oilers to name them GM. If the new GM is an assistant on another team, usually they can’t talk until after the draft.
If you want to have some fun, go back and read some of the Day 2 draft threads of the past
So many strong, strong opinions stated with dead certainty and conviction about 18 year old lottery tickets.
Folks, every GM in the league passed on Nicklas Lidstrom in the 1st round and there’s a strong argument to be made that he was the most complete defenceman in the history of the NHL.
Nobody knows with certainty. This is all educated guesswork with about the same degree of accuracy as picking the next great emerging tech stock.
If you think you know for a fact the forecasted fate in 5 years of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, the self proclaimed smartest man in the room is you and it’s not a good look.
This is a day for hope and speculation. Certainty doesn’t exist here.
I’m pretty impressed so far. I like that they actually did something based on their evaluation of the org. It’s bare so don’t wait till next year (get the player now so can help sooner) and jump if you O’Reilly like a player. Goalie is the most important position
Have to like what Utah is doing. Marino and Sergachev.
Not sure what Tampa is doing. Are they in cap hell or making room for a big signing.?
Clearing space to trade for Nurse? 😉
Friedman figures Guentzel.
This is a good trade for Tampa to retool on the fly, free’s up cap space to grab Guentzel and maybe Stamkos. Moser and Geekie are 2 good young players. Tampa got a much needed injection of youth with small cap hits. They cash in on an asset they’ve used for the past 8 yrs. Great trade for them. Oil need to do moves like this. If Nurse cap hit wasn’t so large and he maintained his play from a Cpl yrs ago we cld have gotten this return
Geekie isn’t tracking like anything special. Moser is underrated. Still, you’re trading a #1D for prospects? Might make sense financially, but that’s a bold move.
not tracking well? Geekie scored close to a 1 goal per game, 2 pts per game clip this yr. He’s also 6’4 200 lbs and physical. Once he grows into his frame he’s gonna be a load. And the 8.5 mil per yr they save will be used on a guentzel. Factor that in and Tampa wins this trade bigly. And Sergachev is not a number 1, he’s a number 2
The more I think about it the more the GM vacancy seems strange. Especially since the Oilers are in such a precarious cap situation. Don’t you want the man with the plan wheeling ASAFP?
Exactly. It’s pretty baffling at a critical time like this.
It’s an oligarchy (Oilgarchy?).
Even if they had hired a new GM last week, it’s not gonna be “Here’s the keys, let us know how it turns out”.
Jeff Jackson must be the man with the plan.
Pracey is running the draft. He has a plan and obviously they have talked about direction
What are we doing?
A Finnish Goaltender. Hmmmm. There have been some good ones. Hasn’t there?
Best G in the draft. I can live with that. It’s the most important position
And the most voodoo
Goalies are unpredictable, only the top of the draft is more likely to succeed, but I looked into it and posted here a few years ago because voodoo is always talked about
A lot of the best goalies are taken higher in the draft. Or first round. Like any other position the best draft eligible goalie is the best goalie at his age in the world. More likely to be an impact player than one that isn’t as good
I think they should be trying every draft to find the next Fuhr, and yes a lot of it is luck, it is with most positions and draftees, still have to roll the dice
A bit of a tangent to a different sport, but for almost every draft under Pete Carroll the Seattle Seahawks would take at least one running back; either one of the top prospects early on, a lesser known guy they were high on, or sometimes both. This was in spite of the fact that the current beliefs about drafting RBs early in the NFL are very similar to drafting goalies.
The end result has been that even though not all of the picks worked out, Seattle has always had at least one home-grown starting RB on the roster despite how common injuries are for the position, and have managed to consistently roster one of the best running backs in the league, even the 9 years post-Marshawn Lynch.
It’s like you said. You should always be trying to find the next guy, even if you already have the current one. It’s a strategy that we have seen work out very well for all of Boston, NYR, Nashville and Vancouver in recent years.
My goalie Vinni:
https://thehockeywriters.com/eemil-vinni-2024-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
Not another goalie.
The Oilers goaltending cupboard is pretty bare. Nathaniel Day and Samuel Jonsson aren’t exactly lighting it up, Olivier Rodrigue is no longer waivers-exempt, Fanti is 24 and in the ECHL, and Connor Ungar seems good but is already 22. This is their biggest area of need for prospects
You’re right, but I just don’t like it when there are names I want on the board 😛
I definitely agree with you there. It happens to me every year 😂
Oilers pick G Eemil Vinni at #64.
From reading Pracey’s interview, they seem to have a pretty well rounded approach at looking at the kids. I especially liked that they are looking at usage, and off ice things, and separate hockey skills from personal traits. He said it’s a lot of work, I’m glad that they are doing it
I think the earlier draft issues were from not having that approach, as you said speed, or skill, or size, or truculent, or huge – no balance in assessment
I prefer this direction of looking for NHL size and having some skill and some jam, and ‘wanting’ to play two ways. Because that’s what works in the playoffs regardless of the opponent
Any undersized or really oversized (slower) player has to have a significant ability to offset that, and normally it’s elite offensive ability, but that is rarely around if you are picking later
I found Bruce’s writeup at the CoH pretty informative and encouraging.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/surprise-edmonton-oilers-trade-for-last-pick-in-first-round-select-london-knights-forward-sam-oreilly
Seems like all the reporters who know the OHL like this pick. Not zoomed by PP production, tasked with playing primarily a defensive game as a rookie, yet still put up respectable (if not shining) points. Relatively recent switch from defenseman to forward, so there is definitely an asterisk there to hint that he may be better than advertised. Otten thinks he’s already the best forward prospect in our system, for what it’s worth.
Bo Horvat scored 61 points in 67 games in his draft year. Points are definitely a huge barometer of future success, but there are other variables that need to be considered. Which is what this pick is.
Sam isn’t Bo, Sam will be his own player.
I suspect if Sam wasn’t on such a deep team, he would have played PP1 as a regular and would have had more points.
I like that we add a good prospect to our porridge forward prospects.
TB trades Jeannot to LA.
All those picks traded for him and only get two back. Horrid for them.
Perfect! Sink your ship Brisebois
the first Jeannot trade was baffling.
Interesting that TB just recently traded for McDonaugh.
I think I’d rather have Sergachev than a 35 year old McDonaugh.
Looks like TB taking a step backwards
In a vacuum I like the return for Sergachev and think it was a decent trade for Tampa.
But in the context of the rest of the roster, I totally agree that I’d rather have him than McDonagh.
Seems like this might be a bit of a rash decision by Brisebois to clear cap space after seeing the fan reaction to Stamkos likely hitting FA.
The Jeannot two-parter feels like he was trying to outdo Rob Blake acquiring Dubois in the category of “horrendous trade that requires cutting bait after one season at a horrible return”.
Hoping for a Dman at 64.
I like the sound of Luke Ashton.19 years old, 6’5″ 230, two-way defenseman, shoots left.
A Burnaby boy that uses his massive body to separate puck from body and create turnovers. The type of guy required in the playoffs. I believe that is the type they are looking for in this draft. Interesting that Sam O’Reilly projects to be the same type of player.
LOL maybe they can get him in the 5th or 6th, or 7th round.
Marino to Utah.
Too early to tell about the player.
But I can’t place much value on the posts here and elsewhere that say “See! This totally proves that management is asshoe!”
When I see a decision that I don’t understand I have to assume that the people who made it have some combination of different priorities and different information than I do.
Keeps me sane.
Not a PPG in his draft year hey? We wait, obviously, just seems like a strange move.
I would suggest context is important with his team and spot in the lineup. See Easton Cowan’s ES production in his draft yr and susbequent explosion this year with more opportunity, long a hallmark of the London system. Given that O’Reilly outproduced him in similar circumstances I suspect the team is projecting similar progress next season. Not guaranteed but a big step offensively next year seems reasonable bet, and if so when added to the reports of his being a top defensive fwd in this draft could be a steal down the line.
Re-check the photo at the top of today’s post. 4 PPG.
London is notorious for over-playing their star players (Like the Oilers PP) and this actually bodes well for him. Our number 1 need is EV play and next year and the year after, O’Reilly might be over-played and have a massive jump in stats just in time to trade him in a 3 for 1 for a Pavel Buchnevich type return
TBay trades Sergachev to Utah.
Moser, Geekie and picks
I think Sergachev might pop big time in Utah – he seemed blocked a bit in Tampa.
Moved him before his full NTC kicked in
We traded first round future capital for a guy who profiles like Tyler Tullio but is 2 inches taller, and brings less offense to the table. I can understand a view where this is seen as level, but it can also appear to be negative given what’s going out and coming in. We’ll wait 5 years, but we got Tullio in the 5th round.
These are the types of things that happen when there isn’t a proper succession plan in place.
You’ve been consistent in this view for the last 12 hours, I’ll give you that – at the same time, I’ve seen essentially no others that have your view.
This was clearly a targeted player that the scouting staff thinks was under-valued due to being blocked in London due to their volume of legit older prospects – this is the type of undervalued player that Pracey has been talking about.
Your view of his ceiling, with respect, cannot really be taken as fact given, you know, this is a just-turned 18 year old kids that is coming off his rookie season in the CHL (and pretty much was the best CHL rookie).
Jeff Jackson is know for “development” and, back when he was an agent, started the “player development” early trend.
when you live outside the edmonton/canada media bubble (which i do), almost everyone shares a view that’s similar to what i’m trying to bring forward. no GM and a reach pick, and no picks to trade at the deadline in the final two years of our window, for a potential 3rd line center in 5 years. Is what it is. Feels like people don’t like a contrarian opinion. I’ll stop it at that, as it’s obvious no one agrees with me.
Some rankings were lower, but for others this was in range (vs. “reach”). That they’re taking “environment” into account means there’s some nuance involved. Lumping in succession planning feels like a reach, given the limited info we know.
I don’t believe popularity of opinion means anything at all. Jfry’s view has merit, and he has expressed it respectfully. At some level, you may fear it is true, but that only makes it more important to express it.
Every opinion out there has merit and I’m suggesting that capping a just turned 18-year old teenager’s potential (while not acknowledging the factors the head of amateur scouting has mentioned) is, well, aggresive.
finding comparables, understanding asset management into the future, and windows for success isn’t aggressive. it’s contemplative. This doesn’t appear to be a parkatti pick on the surface. Would trading a future first rounder for a player like Guentzel at the deadline be more valuable to keeping Drai and McAmazing, than trading up to get this magic bean have been more valuable? It’s a very fair question.
I’m not ignorant of the head of amateur scouting or the current president’s track record. But I am acknowledging that this is the first move of their current regime. I’m happy to be very wrong about my dialogue. I don’t believe it was a strong first move for the regime. I’m praying to be wrong.
1) I’m not sure any of us know what data Parkatti is parcing and providing to the org and how O’Riley looks in that data stream, right?
2) A very recent and direct comparable is his teammate, Easton Cowan – looking pretty good in draft +1
3) For all we know, come March, O’Riley has more value than the Oilers 2025/26 1st rounder.
re: data stream: I own a data analytics company that has hockey teams as clients and have been a twenty year commenter on this forum (under multiple names), and as a result I do believe I have a data stream that’s commiserate with Parkatti’s minus his nuances (as I’ve used his award winning models as inspiration for multiple projects) and a firm reputation of little exaggeration.
you’re creating a reality where cowan is a comparable and o’riley has value come 8 months. Both could be true. Both could not be true. But you’re throwing out my insight to prove yourself correct. i’m trying really hard to argue for a middle reality.
Consider what the value of a first round pick is? Likely close to 5m for what the Oilers gave up. That has to be part of the consideration set.
For me it’s a crap shoot because of drafting outside of the top talent. That’s what happens when you are a good team. O’Reilly might be a reach, but I prefer that they went after a player they value highly, instead of the hand sitting and lack of action we’ve lived through
I also like that this player doesn’t have big obstacles to overcome to be an NHL player. He has to do the work to make it, but that is the same for every player
We have drafted so many players with fatal flaws and it rarely works out. Tulio is listed on the site as 5’10 165lbs. His chances of being very effective at the NHL level are close to zero to me. Yama is falling out of the league now, he’s just too small for the NHL outside of being a fringe player on a team that isn’t going anywhere and wants to take a flyer on cheap skill
O’Reilly has NHL size, is not a timid player, is a right shot C, and if he can skate at an NHL level I think he’s got a pretty good chance of helping. There are no elite talents at 32, outside of blind luck
As for succession plan, Jackson isn’t a blabber mouth, but he has been active in other areas and I don’t doubt that their is a plan, but the timing is difficult. If Hunter is the new GM, it would be poor form to announce it before the draft
With Mark Hunter set to be our next GM, there is no one with more insight on the player. This is Tom Wilson light, had better stats this yr than Easton Cowan had in his draft yr. And is a big game player having helped London win CHL championship and in memorial cup. These are the type of gamers you need to wi the cup. Excellent excellent pick! considering we had no draft capital its a steal
You’re very focused on your view of Hunter and his view of two players on his current team, not the world view of players available in the draft or the current franchise situation of win now (which hasn’t promoted Drai to the most important chip — who is a known commodity vs. a magic bean, and has stated “cup or bust”).
Cowan had a very equivalent draft +1 to Tullio stats (slightly stronger – but we’ve watched tullio in real time as a prospect — he’s not going to be impactful — magic bean hopes). It’s also not valuable to use the Knights as our only landing point. They consistently overplay draft +1 players for years and years. Please see Robert Schremp as an example of growth in that team.
The knights are built for knights success (they have a financial model), not future player NHL success, is a potential narrative?
If Hunter is the future GM, picking his 3rd line center as the first pick, could appear to be barren on surface. And potentially a power play on his part in his new role. GMing the richest team in the OHL vs GMing in a cap league with global reach is very different.
— There are two reasons why I don’t like this pick:
1) It was done without a GM in place so the new GM is severely hampered
2) I alluded to this before: it tells me that JJ appears to be taking the view “hey I’m POHO and I got this GMng thing as well”. I fear he’s going to get a GM he can “control”
— So from a process perspective this is a bad pick in terms of projecting the organizational behaviour for the next tenure
— Too much power in persons hands in any multi-billion organization is worrisome. They are making GM decisions without a GM then going to hire a GM that has less levers to pull.
— And whether the pick is good or not : the philosophy of this pick : a guy who isn’t a good skater playing on an all-star team : they are dictating the philosophy to the next GM.
— This is sub-optimal
They obviously see something in him that you couldn’t possibly see. No need to take a negative view at this point.
How is the GM hampered? He would either have a first round pick (likely very late again) or he has a material prospect who, in one year, could very well be worth even more than a late first rounder.
This is the type of player that Pracey talked about – a player the staff believes is under-valued due to “environment” – being blocked by older prospects in London – likely to have his offence pop this coming year with more responsibility.
If Jackson wanted “a GM he could control”, he would just name himself as GM, Staois style, Dubas style, right?
Not to mention, Jackson has been clear he does not want a rookie GM, he is looking for someone with experience – doesn’t sound like your worry is based in what we hear and see.
There were rumours a few months back that Dale Hunter was a leading contender for the Oilers GM job. Haven’t seen that lately but that would put a different spin on the selection.
Mark Hunter not Dale.
Whoops. Old age or early morning here. I make liberal use of both excuses as I wend my way to senility. 🥸
it is Mark Hunter, and it is no longer rumour but fact and it will be announced in the coming days
Give it a rest.
The new GM DID make the pick. It is Mark Hunter. And having Sam O’reilly in London makes him the best person to evaluate him. Not any of these analysts or fans. The Oilers got a score here
terrific bullet points as always. You’ve consistently been a terrific poster on this forum
I miss when people in this forum backed up opinions with numbers. That’s the backbone of this environment.
I’m okay with the trade and the pick. Only thing troubling is that’s a first we won’t have to trade at the deadline over the next two years. 97 has 2 years left on his deal. It’s really a bold philosophical shift. Holland wouldn’t have made this move. Hopefully he turns into a solid NHL player.
Not sure I’m following re: two years. From other comments, the 2026 pick can be moved (doing so removes the “top 12 protection” on the 2025 pick).
1) We can still trade the 2026 1st rounder (it means the pick gets locked in to 2025 without the top 12 protection) – I had originally thought that both 2025 and 2026 were locked up but JP had the correct intel.
2) They could trade O’Riley and he may have even greater value in March for all we know.
What the Hell? Exactly. I like this pick. If he turns into the second coming of Kevin Mclelland. That would be terrific. He looks good in the number 24.
This pick was hinted at earlier on a bit, with the benefit of hindsight. Rick Pracey talking about looking at the environment. Looking at quality of competition and quality of teammates. Specifically mentioning guys playing on deeper teams vs guys who are on their own.
I also don’t know if Parkatti had anything to with this, but the more I read about O’Reilly, the more I wonder.
Guy playing on a deep team so not getting the big minutes but likely will next year. Switched from defense to forward in Midget. Switched from wing to centre this year. Are the Oilers looking at his rapid rise over the year & seeing a ton of potential, with a high projection because he has only recently changed positions?
To me, if they traded up to get him, it’s because the area scout absolutely loved him AND Parkatti (who was at the draft table) had a model that thought he had value at 32. But maybe I just hope that.
Regardless, it’s a fascinating pick and doesn’t follow a lot of Oiler draft tropes I’m used to. That alone makes it a fun to follow pick.
Great post. My spies tell me several Oilers amateur scouts were in Ontario rinks during the winter. I think they were either strong on O’Reilly earlier, or we could see more from the OHL today.
I think you’re bang on at the end there about ice time distribution with O’Reilly. Reading up lots since the pick, and basically zero PP time with the vast majority of his production at ES.
Willis even noted that in the same number of games he outproduced Easton Cowan at evens in his draft year. Add that to his ever important wide range of skills, including apparently elite compete and physicality, and I’m excited to have him on board!
Let’s hope he somehow learns how to skate faster. I guess with more work it’s possible
Gazzola saying that the organization was surprised that McDavid is not getting surgery – for what that’s worth.
He regrew his knee without surgery, what could be worse.
Interesting. Surprised as in they thought the injury was worse, or surprised in that they thought this injury needed surgery while Connor’s team thinks it doesn’t?
My thought was the latter but that’s just my interpretation – Tom gave no other information.
Buyout window closes tomorrow so I think Campbell would need to be on waivers today.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Ceci moved today and maybe Campbell retained – possibly McLeod as well.
I’m fond of both the trade for the pick and the pick itself. This team will need young talent bubbling up through the system at some point which is partly why I was averse to trading the 1st at the deadline after already trading the ’23 1st. The fact that he’s coming through London gives me more faith that his value at least won’t diminish over the next couple years, as well. The comparables I’ve been reading throughout the year are Laughton, Cirelli and, my personal favourite, Danault.
Aside from his skating, the concern I have is that the situation he finds himself in isn’t suggestive of a huge year-over-year leap forward in his draft+1. Just about every player ahead of him last year is likely returning: Cowan, Barkey, and Halttunen are 19 until well into 2025 while Julien and Gazizov will both be 20 by season’s start but both are eligible to return. That means O’Reilly will still likely find himself on the 2nd unit PP and perhaps less talent to play with on said unit.
If Cowan makes the Leafs and Gazizov goes elsewhere after not being draft again (possible), then we could be looking at some explosion potential, but that’s a fair bit of “if”. That being said, given the comparables I’ve read and his draft riser status, I’m quite happy with the pick at this spot and I support placing some degree of emphasis on qualities like “relentlessness” and “motor”!
I hate that pick. We just blew a first rounder on Anton Lander. You need to shoot for the moon with every pick. A skilled player that skill doesnt translate can become a defensive type. A defensive type that doesn’t translate is an Ahler
I agree completely. Shoot the moon. That is not the template adopted by the current regime. Not at this time anyway.
Gotta disagree with this. If the single is what’s available, you take the single and wait for the home run option when it presents itself. “He get’s on base, do I care how he get’s there? … You do not.”
Curious who you would’ve looked at for a home run at that stage, like a Ryder Ritchie?
Who would you have selected, or would you have not traded up at all?
I shan’t be surprised if the Oilers pick at least one LHD today.
Yevseyev may never leave Mother Russia. Münzenberger does not inspire.
Viva Leftorium!
For LD on the board in the 64 range I am very much hoping for Tarin Smith out of Everett. Scouting reports read like a slightly bigger and more physical Beau Akey
I am on the Tarin train as well, excellent edges, great poke check, positioning, passing and good physicality. He also shows very good offensive instincts.