I was struck by several flashes of deja vu yesterday, as the Edmonton Oilers changed draft direction. New scouting director Rick Pracey put his stamp on the Oilers and it’s decidedly rugged. The calculation seems to be that the Oilers have enough skill, so surrounding that skill with men who can dig pucks out of the corners and stand their ground in high-danger areas was the need in 2024. History tells us that the Oilers will have an extreme need for skill in the next several years, and bemoan the assets spent on players who were not offensive difference makers.
THE PICKS
I think there are players to like in this group, and (unlike 1990) the Oilers will get one or two men to play in the NHL down the line. The trick with the draft is to go skill, and then watch the offensive drivers develop into two-way types. Shaun Van Allen is a classic example, he was an outstanding junior scorer who developed into a substantial two-way NHL player. It’s important to remember he began his pro career after a strong run in the OHL as a driver.
Sam O’Reilly has some good things on his resume, and I do think the rankings reflect a player who was taken in the correct range. I don’t consider him a reach selection and he was chosen in an area where future checking centers begin life. I am a fan of this player-type and even though it’s good to generally disregard things like “he didn’t get much power-play time and was far, far away from the real roster skill” those things appear to be actual factual. I think the even-strength production is an interesting thing to track for next season. He might be Van Allen, or Marc Pouliot. I like the pick.
Goaltenders are voodoo, so we wait until this one shows up or not. I do think drafting Finns is a grand idea, the presence of that nation is all over Oilers lore in the best possible way. He shows well to his fellow goaltenders on his Finnish team, and is a teenage goalie with miles to go.
Connor Clattenburg profiles in a similar fashion to Mitchell Moroz and Travis Ewanyk a dozen years ago. It isn’t a stretch to suggest he will struggle in the AHL. One wonders if there’s a hidden piece to the puzzle, but considering he was chosen so late, I think we have it covered with the Moroz comparable.
Albin Sundin’s resume reminds me a little of Filip Berglund, who landed just shy of the NHL. We have to wait and see about the skating and coverage, but I think we can assume it will be an upset if he plays NHL games. Doesn’t mean he will not, only that we can’t see it from here.
Dalyn Wakely is a solid comp for Van Allen, and even chosen in the same general area. I think Michael Parkatti is all around this selection, less so the others. Wakely has a real chance, folks. I ranked him on my list and felt he was a good NHL bet. Still do.
William Nicholl could be the best NHL player chosen by Edmonton this weekend or we may never hear from him. I will say his speed/skill/resume has the most potential and it’s encouraging he went 1-7-8 in 18 playoff games. I mention ‘draft and follow’ often and he’s one for sure.
Bauer Barry has genetics on his side and is good at suppression. That’s a solid resume for this portion of the draft, and if I’m honest his verbal speaks to me more than that of Sundin.
I would encourage you to read my article at The Athletic today, I give my opinion about what the draft direction tells us about summer. Don’t lose faith, the Oilers will be drafting skill again by the end of the decade. This was a shortsighted draft, but in fairness they didn’t have the picks to use when the river pushers were in play.
Guentzel was very expensive for Tampa Bay.
Stauffer:
On top of taking care of business on some of their own UFA’s don’t be surprised if the @EdmontonOilers add a top 6 FWD (preferably a RW) to play with Leon Draisaitl and a 6th/7th D (preferably a right shot).
Free Agency coverage
@OilersNow will be on at 1-3 today on @630CHED
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1807769899474760041?s=46&t=yOjgX7Dc1NV_ZnMv2aFPKQ
Arvidsson, Debrusk or Marchessault, please 🙂
Latest is Debrusk is going to the Phlegms, Marchessault to NJ.
Brown 1 year, 1 mill. Good deal
Are they not going to re-sign Janmark?
I would’ve wrapped him up good; he was money in the playoffs.
Looks like Carrick will be signing with the Rangers (per Andy Strickland).
Puckpedia just posted Brown resigned for same 1m aav as Carrick but for 1 year.
@TSNRyanRishaug
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7m
Oilers working on a few of their own UFA’s today, but also looking to add a winger to compete in their top 6 alongside Draisaitl. Henrique, Foegele, Desharnais, Carrick seem longer shots to get done, keeping an eye on Janmark, Brown and Perry.
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I expected Henrique to non re-sign and Foegele is too expensive (although less expensive than someone like DeBrusk and more productive in recent times).
I hold out hope for Jeff Skinner very cheap (one year, $2.5MM range) as he’s a legit top 6 winger, one season removed from a couple of 30 goal seasons. Not sure he’s the best stylistic fit but, for all we know, he’s the best playoff performer of all time that just hasn’t had a chance.
I’ve got a feeling Arvidsson is going to be Draisatl’s new winger and I think I’m okay with that
Debrusk, mate.
I’m not sure DeBrusk is more value at $5.5MM than Foegele at $4MM.
I know he’s “more skilled” but his scoring rates (goal rates and point rates) were dwarfed by Foegele this season and the prior season.
I know there is a Draisaitl factor but Foegele played only 1/3 of his time with Drai this season and still put up those numbers.
This isn’t to advocate for Foegele back at $4MM but more to note that I think DeBrusk is quite over-rated in these parts and I think he’s going to have a contract that would be VERY tough to live up to.
LOWETIDE!!!
Well the “best” UFA starting goalies available in the summer of 2022 were ancient (Fluery) cap dumped (Kuemper) flopped (Husso) or bought out (Campbell) .
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3380170/2022/06/24/nhl-free-agent-goalies-darcy-kuemper-marc-andre-fleury/
It was a bad year to be in the UFA goalie market – everyone lost.
Developing your own guys is the way to go and we have finally done that with Skinner and Rodrigue. The young Finn from the wilderness we drafted yesterday looks promising. Hope he heads to the CHL this season and I look forward to following him.
There were some that did not want management to sign one of the “top UFA goalies” but to acquire one of the 3-4 established vets with one year left on their contracts to play 1A with Skinner as a one-year stop gap.
In hindsight that would have been more prudent if only to reduce risk. Might not have worked out any better but only one year. Still you need two to trade – and assets the other teams wanted are unknown – so that option may have been considered and deemed to expensive. Who were you thinking of (both options that might have worked and those that would have failed).
I believe my list was Reimer, Varmalov and, to be honest, I can’t remember the other two (knowing Varmalov wasn’t realistic). Oh, I think Jake Allen was one of the other two.
Tough year. They certainly got it wrong with Campbell but I can’t see any team in the goalie market that year getting it right. I guess Vegas with Hill – but the Oilers at that time would never deal for a guy who had only played 25 games once in his career. They already had Skinner in that category. Lesson learned should be to develop your own guys.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5606160/2024/06/30/patrick-kane-red-wings-contract-return/
Patrick Kane signs in DET
1 year
$4M base and $2.5M bonuses
$1.5MM is for 10 games played.
Bonuses only hit the following year’s cap if they vest and, when added to the cap at year’s end, put the team over the ceiling. Wings have tons of cap space right now but Sieder and Raymond will eat up ALOT!
Tim Pell
@TimCPeel20
It’s truly amazing what #NHL players go through. Talking to @evanderkane
today. He had to give 6-8 injections everyday to give him self a chance to play in the #NHLPlayoffs2024 #LetsGoOilers
Warrior. Get well Evander.
Yeah, not thrilled about this aspect of the draft.
JJ does realize that the menace, Sam Bennett was a #4 OV who had 91 points in 54 games in his draft year.
Bennett incidentally was acquired as a rental IIRC for two second round draft picks.
If you want players who play a rugged game, it’s usually more efficient to skip the draft and development risk and just trade a pick for the player.
When is the Ceci trade gonna be announced? Free agency opens tomorrow.
I doubt Ceci moves until maybe later in July … it’s really hard to move money and the prices being floated out there for the available RHD are pretty high. Some team will be left without a chair, and maybe that opens up an opportunity to trade Ceci. And until we know whether Vinny is going to sign it would be folly to move Ceci.
I wonder if they have plans for Stetcher as well. He seems to be the forgotten guy.
I would have thought the draft but now I’m not positive its going to happen. Would management spend his cap space presuming they will be able to move him later? Dangerous game.
Could trading for Nick Robertson be of interest? He’s not his brother but maybe there could be something there.
Any of the young RFAs that were not qualified seem of interest? Rather than giving up assets? Is nick any better than some of the guys not qualified?
Lots of names. Not sure how many are worth pursuing, Barrett Hayton is an interesting name. Probably not a fit for us though.
Hayton is listed as an RFA on CapFriendly (RIP). But he’s exactly the kind of buy low target I’d like to see the Oilers target.
The score has hayton not being qualified.
Not sure how reliable that report is though…
I only read about some of the other unqualified RFAs after I had the notification about Robertson’s trade request. I think yes, I agree, I want Edmonton to looking that market. It’s a good place to look.
Hayton was qualified
I dunno – I’m not sure he’s skilled enough to make up for his diminutive stature – I don’t think he could play in the top 6 – he’s played less than 25% of his TOI vs. elites last season so this isn’t Drai’s winger.
Hayton reminds me a bit of Bennett. He was playing with Keller a season ago, then got bumped down to the 4th line last season, with some injuries providing further context. Florida did a great job shopping in the heavily discounted section. With extensions for Bouch and Leon coming, and dead cap from Campbell’s buyout together with Brown’s bonus money, we need to be doing the same.
Sounds like tbay are signing guentzel…
Which I like that he isn’t signing in vancouver etc.
Although im unsure his actually ability? Is he an 9mil player? I havent watch much and figured he road crosby, but he did well in car too.
Leaves the Nucks the cap to circle back to Zadarov at $6MM per.
Amazing deal if it happens. I’m going to be applauding Vancouver if they do this tomorrow.
Aidan McDonough, who we were told was going to be the next “Great One”, not qualified.
Wonder who said that?
It was sponsored by the Brogan Rafferty fan club.
Who is also a UFA … we could sign the HH … er, sorry the Great One’s All-stars, and then BOOM … Stanley Cup.
Prior to that, the Joe Colbourne fan club.
How is Carter Savoie doing these days?
Free as a bird. Admit a fail and move on
There are a lot of comments I’ve made in the thread about size so I’ll put this here
Holland said the only reason they went overseas early was that they were never in position to draft a big Canadian C, or they would have done that
So they found Dat and Zett, smaller skill guys (although Zett put on an amazing amount of weight?)
He also said the slow play Detroit did was because they had a full roster and could get any UFA they wanted. Otherwise they would have played youth sooner
In Edmonton the decisions he took were about his previous MO and short term goals. He went after free agents as he had, but they won’t sign cheap like they did for Detroit, capped himself out. He slow played players trying to get a Cup, especially after JJ came and he knew he would leave. And in the end had to use them green anyway because they weren’t used when NHL ready
The Guide and Record Book seems to suggest a healthy resume for a gentleman by the name of Stamkos. His club were league champs in back-to-back seasons recently.
Stammer, and to a lesser extent Carrier, is where I’d be hunting free agents is I was Jeffrey Jackson.
Except for the cash SS seems to want
I believe JJ did check on Stamkos but Nashville went long and high and is likely to sign him.
A lot of projections on Carrier are saying around $4mil, so while I personally would sign him, that’s going to be too much coin.
I think I’d rather have Martinook than Brown. If he was cheap enough
I’ve seen lots the past few weeks about Kane being a bad contract. Genuinely curious about this – he has averaged .69 points per game/ 56 per 82 games in his time here and has been a beast in the playoffs when healthy. Fights, hits everything. Brings an element we don’t have and would have been great to have against Florida and is always great against LA in playoffs.
I know health has been an issue the past couple years but sports hernia should be healed by fall? I say keep the man
A lot of people struggle making these types of distinctions between the player themselves and their contract.
Kane historically has been good as an Oiler. Even last year his boxcars weren’t bad at all.
On the other hand, osteitis pubis, in a player over 30 is a complicated injury with no clear predictable endpoint like say a broke rib or finger.
Kane turns 33 this summer and there are two more years left on his contract paying him $5.125m.
Turn it around, if Kane were playing for another team on that contract, given his age and injury, would you want the risk in that contract or would you rather spend your $5m on a player that’s healthier and likely to be more reliable?
While he puts up points his effort in the defensive end is lacking so he gives back a lot of what he produces.
Father time hits power forwards sooner so wheels could fall off any year
We are in cap hell
Health has been an issue the last couple of years but also, well, his entire career and its tough to expect him to all of a sudden be more durable as he approaches his mid-30s…..
His production rates are fine (very streaky, but most non elite wingers are) but he is also a highly questionable defensive zone and neutral zone player at times which often leads to giving most of it back.
I like the person, and the player, and a healthy Kane is a solid 2nd liner that brings other elements – I’m not positive that player exists any more.
Ryan and Lead beat me to it, but if the Oilers are looking for some cap relief, Kane’s contract is one you’d have to consider moving on from
And yes, he has a NMC, but that doesn’t have to be a showstopper, especially considering it transitions to a NTC just prior to the deadline. Kane may view this summer as an opportunity to pick his landing spot now, (while teams have a little more flexibility) rather than a smaller pool of teams in March
I’ve liked Kane, he’s been good in his time as an Oiler, and we may actually be able to get an asset back in a trade(including cap relief)
I think his cap can be used to sign 3 or 4 useful players
Friedman reported in his podcast that Kane had been asked to waive his NMC.
No, Friedman noted the rumors and then was clear that, as of Saturday, Kane had NOT been asked to waive.
I would like to see a list of every team’s “dead” cap space if there is such a thing. Seems like the Oil have been fighting this for years. They can’t be the only team like this.
Here you go: https://x.com/AzorcanGlobal/status/1807460080432091395
I don’t love heading into the draft and free agency without an appointed GM. I am sure they have several minds working on it.
Holland did a fantastic job with this team and I will miss his measured approach in most areas. I will also miss the big swings he made in free agency and medium to big swings at the deadlines. I will miss the man and wish him all the best. Thanks Kenny!
Since we’re losing Foegele, I was looking around the league at affordable players that also rank highly by individual scoring chances (iSCF/60). Hyman and Foegele ranked 3 and 4 by this metric during the regular season. Does anyone have any thoughts on what it would take to get Josh Doan, Mark Jankowski, Olle Lycksell, Carl Grundström, Ivan Miroshnichenko, Joshua Roy, JJ Peterka, Martin Pospisil, Shane Pinto or Radim Zohorna?
Any fresh UFAs we could turn into the next Forsling? Still don’t understand how he became incredible after like 1.5 years in FLA off waivers.
Anyone else worried that our UFA haven’t been signed. I mean Brown will probably test the market but I’d hate to lose Janmark
Eh. I bet the Oilers try to nab higher priced players first. I cannot imagine Janmark or Brown get significant offers.
Janmark was the only one I expected to re-sign prior to Monday.
with such a short turnaround from the Finals to FA and letting the players decompress a bit before approaching signings – which is smart- I would not be surprised if they are working late tonight to try and get some of them done by morning or shortly after. It has been a full week LOL.
I will be watching the signing tracker early tomorrow to hopefully see some traffic on them.
I am thinking a full first day before they resign here. Gives them a chance for some first day crazy deal. If someone offers Janmark a 3 by 3 contract, he would jump on that and good for him.
We hoped for the best but it turned out as always. The 70’s furniture store is undefeated.
New Coke Machine for the staff room. Some sweeping up of the mess from where the last guy spilt the soup.
No ruthless purging of slow moving stock, or lighting strikes. Means no shinny new stock tomorrow. Same as it ever was.
Interesting youth being let go it sounds like…
Brannstrom, jake bean, amoung others. Man some of these guys were highly touted…
Anyone out there we would be interested in?
Nils Lundkvist, too. Adding a cheap, young puckmoving D never a bad idea.
Probably not with the forwards they aren’t great
A few years ago the latest fad was ‘modern defenceman’, remember that one? Well now they are starting to be let go
I was never a fan. There are realities to every sport. There is a reason linebackers are within a size range and linesman are different
In a contact sport like hockey, undersized players have to be elite players to be helpful. They have to succeed with their skill because they can’t play physically effectively, with the odd exception. The other thing is if they are physical they get hurt and wear down like Gallagher
It’s one thing to be Q Hughes at 180lbs, and another to be Adam Boqvist at 190. The D getting let go wouldn’t be what we need either. Nurse needs a proper defender that can pass, Bro needs a veteran partner that is physical I think
If they roll the dice and play Bro with Nurse despite the poor metrics, Kulak needs a capable partner that is bigger and more physical than he is. For me that’s not Des because they didn’t use him when it counted. They need a more mobile quicker playing better puck handling player. The size doesn’t matter if there isn’t enough game
As I remember it, the 2018 draft was a referendum on small, skilled dmen. Doesn’t look like many of the small guys are doing so well.
That’s what I was getting at. You have to be a pretty special player to be helpful undersized at D
If you’re average why not use a regular sized player? That’s been my argument and it seems to be panning out
The “modern defenceman” is not defined by size but by elite skating and offensive skill.
All of Hughes, Makar, Fox, Morrissey, Karlsson and even Josi are among those with those traits.
Josi might be considered the “linebacker” of the group but he’s only 6’1″ 200
I don’t agree. You imply skilled defensemen are a new thing. They aren’t
What was new was small skilled defensemen being taken so widely. There had been a few, but it was rare, and they were elite or top level players. A lot of the ones taken after so may jumped on board aren’t succeeding now
It’s reverse Lucic hunting. The outliers remain outliers
And to think that Brannstrom was the centrepiece of the Mark Stone trade…people thought he would be the next Karlsson.
Boquist was a top 10 pick in the Bouchard Dobson draft
The team who passed on Parekh and Buium will feel the same way, having selected middling talents over impact defensemen.
It’s a crap shoot. Big win if they pop at the NHL level, leaking badly if they don’t
And the two who are succeeding are not small
Puckpedia showing 12.9mm in cap space but I don’t thisnk this accounts for the 3.5 mm in bonus overages for this year does it?
thats the cap space we signed Pickard for 1 mill yesterday
Nuge, McDavid, Hyman,Kane, Draisaitl, McLeod, Ryan are the forwards signed for a total of $39,750,00.
Nurse, Ceci, Ekholm, Bouchard,Kulak account for $25,150,000.
Pickard & Skinner are the bargain at $3,600,000.
Bonus overages for Perry, Brown $3,550,000.
Buyouts for Campbell & Neal $3,016,667.
Add them all up and you get $12,933,333 left.
Got it now. Thanks
We don’t know the amounts to expect from our qualified RFAs. I am trying to guess based in the Cap Friendly QO calculator and come up with the following guesses:
Hamblin 2O24 CAP 8O75OO, min QO 81875O max at 12O% of AAV 959k. Could go to 959k if necessary as is still able to be fully buried. Has little leverage to ask for max so perhaps a raise from last year to reward a good soldier and give him 9OOk?
Holloway 2O24 CAP 925k min QO 874125 – NOT going to poison the well by offering him a haircut. Previous AAV 1.44m max @ 12o% of AAV 1.73m. Bridge 2 yr at 1,5?
Lavoie 2O24 CAP 874175 min QO 917831 max at 12o% of AAV is 1.O5m. 2 yr at 1m?
Broberg 2O24 CAP 853333 min QO 874125 , max at similar to Holloway at 1.77m? 2 yr ar 1.5?
Hoefenmayer 224 CAP 845k min QO 81375O not going to offer a cut. max at 12O%of AAV 1m? Offer raise to 9OOk?
How does that look to you?
Neither Holloway nor Broberg should be getting much (if any) more than Podkolzin’s 1mil * 2. Everyone else ought to be at or close to league minimum as they aren’t established NHLers with bargaining power.
I am trying to err on the side of caution. I don’t think they risk poisoning the well by offering less than their current salaries and am keeping the likely non roster players to small but still buryable raises to keep them happy. We might keep the raises to a minimum if we can upgrade either Hoefenmeyer or Hamblin or Lavoie to one way contracts so they have no risk of salary falloff if they spend more time in the AHL . For them I am guessing a little higher than league min or no raise on their past contract as would still be fully buryable.in the AHL.
For Holloway and Broberg, again I am going for the higher end of what to expect as both committed themselves well in the playoffs and should be locks to make the roster in some fashion next year. Neither should ever see the AHL again, barring catastrophe. Need to squeeze a bit , but not so much that we poison the well for future negotiations when they have ARB rights for example.We might come in a little lower on all these, but I am trying to put a ceiling on what to expect. Does that make this look more reasonable in that light?
I get erring on the side of caution but I don’t think your reasoning maps. Every other team in the league is out there re-signing their ELCs that aren’t NHLers to 775k contracts left & right. Names ranging from Alex Turcotte to Gage Goncalves are out there taking 775k (with higher AHL salaries than their ELCs) because they haven’t made it yet.
It’s not poisoning the well; it’s standard practice.
Interestingly Hoefenmeyer, Lavoie and Hamblin all have arbitration rights this year, but no leverage to make it a likely scenario. Broberg and Holloway won’t have arbitration tights until next offseason, making 2+ year deals more likely for them I would think as long as we don’t take them too close to FA…
Podkholzin had zero leverage since he was playing mainly in the AHL.
And yet he’s had a better NHL season than Holloway has had. I feel that evens things about enough to suggest it’ll be close to that.
While not very likely, the Oilers are very susceptible to offer sheets for Broberg and Holloway.
The compensation for an offer of up to $4.58 million is only a second round round pick.
Given that Broberg in particular expressed concern with his development path earlier, you have to wonder if his agent might urge him to play hardball.
Broberg and Holloway should both be below $1MM on one-year deal or in the $1.1MM – $1.2MM for two year deals.
If Lavoie was smart, he’d signed for league min with a higher AHL salary – the deal that was offered to him last season and which is agent advised him to take (and he went against his agent’s advise and “bet on himself”.
I’m not sure why a non-NHL player would get over $1MM and term?
Arvidsson, Brown, Janmark, Desharnais, Fleury IN. Ceci traded. Sail on Warren.
That would be a modest success for the first week of July.
I think McLeod would have to be traded to free up enough money for Henrique. Don’t know if that is worth it.
Exchange Desharnais and Fluery for Walker/Roy and I agree.
Agreed on McLeod. He has come a good distance since arriving, and has room and time to grow – we haven’t seen the finished product from him yet. While Henrique is very useful and I would love to have him next year, he is at the tail end of his career, so with him we are looking for him to retain his already established level not grow from it to something greater… to retain Henrique would have to be done along a different path than McLeod.
I don’t understand the fuss about the lack of a GM.
The era of the all-powerful-GM-centric run team is over. The main qualifications for a GM now are interpersonal skills and information management.
Most teams have a POHO. There is now an amateur scouting departmet, a profession scouting department, a player development department, an analytics department, a cap management department, a coaching department, a health and wellness department, and an operations department.
Decisions are now concensus decisions with the GM as a facilitator and coordinator, and providing input from agents and other GM’s.
Arguably, hockey knowledge is less important than being a good manager and information processor. A good GM today will be empowering surogates, and then listening to them.
And that was Holland’s strength—great communicator and facilitator. He empowered his experts and relied on them heavily. But sometimes empowered experts get things wrong, which was Holland’s (and this committee style’s) weakness. Because many fans have no tolerance for anything other than the impossibility of perfection.
Except he relied more on the NHL Guide and Record Book than his analytics department. He also was soft on duration of contracts for UFA’s. I doubt Jack Campbell was an analytics department recommendation.
He was the goalie coach’s recommendation
AA came from the scouting department.
The whole Guide and Record Book thing is nothing more than a meme. If you’ve been following the Oilers, you’d know it wasn’t actual praxis.
Do you have a source re: Campbell? I do not remember that.
Holland himself stated that Campbell was Justin Shwartz’s recommendation.
Word. Thank you!
Campbell wasn’t recommended by Schwartz, he told Holland that he thought JC had better rebound control than Kuemper, the two highest profile UFA goalies. I don’t think much due diligence was done on either
Yup. Holland’s sense of humour more than anything.
If Schwartz said Campbell was the guy, shouldn’t there be a consequence for that?
Goalie Coach don’t know Jack!
I can’t think of a move that wasn’t completely obvious, or related to the Wings or Leafs somehow. Definitely didn’t dig up any outside of the box gems like some teams have done like Forsling
He also didn’t care about cost. From what he said he felt capped out, which is more a choice than an unsolvable problem. He either cornered himself like with Nurse, or had to get his guy regardless, so gave the term to get a lower cap hit, and trade protection
IIRC the Guide Book thing came out when he was spitting mad at getting challenged about the Keith deal
Jack Campbell was recommended by Dustin Schwartz IIRC
When it works, a collegial committee approach can be very effective. It requires technical prowess from all members, respect for each other’s areas of input, and a willingness to keep egos out of it. When it doesn’t work, it is a case of a camel being a horse designed by committee…
I think a lot of fans would settle for less than perfection but getting the obvious done well. When Holland came on a GM was quoted as seeing him as mediocre. I thought it was probably just taking a poke, but that guy was correct
I’m not sure how many GMs in the position of having a contender and the world’s best player would roll into the playoffs with a 2nd pair that was struggling all season and didn’t do well last playoffs, and a guy on 3rd that had trouble last time with the pace and has puck handling issues
It’s not like it was a surprise, nor was Campbell, at least to an awful lot of people here and analysts. The misses can’t be that big, the margin of error is too small if you want to win a Cup
I think the GM’s most important strength needs to be negotiating first. Good contracts and good deal making
That’s also often delegated
I imagine many GMs want to handle the major deals, with input of course on cap etc
I’d like to see the Oilers clear up space somehow.
Ceci, Kane, or Nurse, and then augment the team in a meaningful way.
This is our last year of Drai and Bouch on dream contracts. The competitive window will never be more open than 24-25.
IMHO, Ceci is likely. Kane possible, as we haved resurrected his value since his departure from San Jose somewhat and his style of play, recent spate of injuries and his age may make it a good time to cycle younger – the best ability is availability. His NMC may make such a trade problematic though. I don’t see Nurse going anywhere for at least two years though, and even then not too likely. By then with Cap inflation his contract will look less onerous as more D pass him on the salary rankings…
I have no real quarrel with this draft. We have a 1st round pick to be excited about and I wasn’t anticipating that. And I am excited about him. Definitely wish there were more shoot the moon picks though. It’s like they saw Wanner is the best prospect in the system and figured 0.24 points per game as an 18 year old in junior is ideal.
I’m looking at RD free agents who could be good second pair options, and I’m only seeing Pesce and Montour. If they cost over 3-4 million the Oilers can’t afford them without trading Ceci or Kulak based on my back of the napkin estimates. But you’d have to trade one of them anyway to make room. But there really aren’t a lot of top 4 options and I’m hoping the plan isn’t Broberg on his offside in the top 4.
Carrier has better PuckIQ numbers than Montour. Not perfect but I think an upgrade at RD
Also should be affordable
Roy and Carrier as well.
In my world Roy is signed as the 2RD and Carrier the 3RD, both Kulak and Ceci are traded.
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Roy
Broberg – Carrier
Coghlan.
Maybe trade Kulak to Carolina for Dylan Coghlan, giving them an experience 3LD and get a very low-cost RHD RFA who has only scratched the surface.
I know Bob has floated Haydn Fleury, but he’s just big and fast and a failed top pick. He hasn’t shown much as an NHL player, IMO.
The only issue is that both Roy and Carrier played 2nd pair minutes
Roy is better higher up the line-up and Carrier would kill playing lesser competition
Boqvist was bought out by Columbus. He might be a inexpensive option for depth.
Adding Hayden Fleury and Adam Boqvist for one million each.
Would be great adds for that amount of money
Stauffer was projecting Fleury last week…..
London’s starting goalie this past season is an ’03 so will not return. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if they picked Vinni during Wednesday’s CHL Import Draft?
I rather doubt Sundin gets taken in said draft, but one never knows.
In addition to the Kniggits, there are three other amateur teams with multiple Oilers prospects:
Flint (Day, Clattenburg)
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä)
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi)
I don’t agree with the Doom and Gloom projected by Lowetide and some others. I don’t think these picks are Pure Coke Machines, and even when the Oilers draft for skill as has been the last few years, they sometimes take years or aren’t quite like their peers (yet, or forever). But they might end up useful, in the end.
The Oilers can always sign other skilled players and draft skill players (not that the players in this draft don’t have skill, either) in the years to come. They did surprisingly well for not having a GM or concrete plan yet.
Sorry prof, but this doesn’t make as much sense as drafting skill and signing useful player types (who are generally cheaper) when needed.
Oilers finally draft the consensus pick in their spot (Bob McKenzie list) and fans are falling over themselves to pan the selection as foolish.
Can’t win for trying, it would seem.
Won’t the actual value of the pick be somewhat dependent on whether or not the Oilers can repeat their playoff success next season?
If they falter, the pick they forfeit next season could be much higher and thus more valuable.
It is protected
Top 12 protected, right?
A pick anywhere lower could have significantly more value as long as it’s not 32.
I suppose it will depend on how deep the next draft is.
Top 12 protected. Also, it locks in without protection if the Oilers trade the 2O26 #1. However, if they do trade the 2O26 #1 it is likely at the trade deadline, which likely means we are in a good position in the standings and are loading up. That would make the loss of top 12 protection in that scenario rather moot.
I think that was the carrot that JJ dangled to the Flyers to entice them to make the trade – ‘make the pick at 32 today or wait a year and maybe the pick is 22/24/28 or whatever’
The top 12 protected is a nothing burger imo- I doubt the Oilers miss the playoffs, yes..?
The Oilers
-liked the player (obviously)
-added a player to the prospect pipeline a year sooner (as opposed to keeping the ’25 pick and making it next year)
-after trading away the ’22 pick (Schaefer) and the ’23 pick(Ekholm) perhaps the Oilers wanted to add a ’24 pick knowing they’ve got a bit of a gap in their prospect pipeline
Of course all that makes sense however I don’t think you can make any definitive statements about the strategy and pick until the cost of acquisition plays out.
There are some already saying the 2025 draft class is much deeper so it will be interesting to see what this looks like a year from now.
Plus LT has him at 35, and LT’s process would have faded him a bit because of less opportunity for new and depth guys in London.
MacKenzie aggregated list of 10-20 actual scouts with nailed 28 of the 32 picks in the first round had him at 32.
LT had him with enough offense to be picked right around where he was picked. The best list had MacKenzie’s, had him right at 32. The Oilers picked him at 32. He may be a hard-nosed right shot centre.
Cannpt understand why people are complaining.
“Clattenburg almost sounds like Clutterbuck. Are they related?”
“Close enough for me.”
-source: Oiler’s draft huddle, probably.
Clattenburg is bigger than Clutterbuck. He’s a high energy guy that isn’t afraid to drop the mitts. Check him out in Hockey fights. He will no doubt be a fan favorite if he makes it to the NHL.
If Toronto signs Tanev for 8 years I will chug a bottle of Talisker. Tanev is a good player but old and a band aid. More than 2 years is asking for trouble.
We can hope!
Watch Tre waste the assets on Tanev’s rights, miss out on him, then offer Zadorov the Tanev deal.
I guess they needed a partner for Reilly.
Interesting that they did this shortly after Utah went for their new top pairing, too.
I think we should mentally prepare for the Oilers to run back almost the exact same line up. Maybe Arvidsson signs for cheap on a one year deal.
If they do that fire the GM! Oh wait
This is good. The lineup from last year played in a one goal game in the Stanley Cup Final. There is no need for a major overhaul. It’s finding 1-2 upgrades that provide a boost. Arvidsson may just be the answer.
They can’t really do an overhaul because the players you would do that with all have movement clauses
They do need to do some things though
Status quo is death when every competitor is addressing areas of need.
Even if they won, adding better players is always the right course of action.
I think we will see 1-2 roster changes from the Playoff roster. That should break the status quo.
We also get a full season with Bro and Hollywood. That’s a win based on last year.
Get Drai some help on his wing! The guy dragged Foegele (!) to 20 goals, someone who can shoot the puck will get 40.
Paging P. Kane…please take a discount for McDavid and Draisaitl. Not going to happen but could you imagine?!
Is that bad though. I mean Arvidsson on a 1 year deal would be fantastic!!!!
Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Kane Drai Arvidsson
Holloway Henrique Janmark
mcleod 4c. Brown
Thats a big improvement on opening night roster. Arvidsson is a real pain to play against although he gets beat up often
It’s not necessarily bad given their cap situation. I would like an improvement at RW and 2RHD.
Arvidsson will have multiple suitors.
The OIlers have his buddy Ekholm, and an open spot beside Draisaitl, and one of the best chances to win the Stanley Cup.
I like Arvidsson better than Toffoli because of speed, and the fact that he is likely cheaper with less duration.
same same
Why do you keep changing handles?
What was wrong with HH?
I presume you mean the playoffs line-up? Do they have the cap room to run it back with almost the same line up?
Sam O’Reilly is like Sam Bennett. A type of Centre we haven’t had in forever. And the beauty is we got him at 32 overall instead of 4th overall like Bennett. Excellent pick
Dale Hunter, is that you?
Lol
Sounds like he might be Dale Hunters son or daughter.
Bolts acquire negotiating rights to Guentzel.
There’s the Jack Campbell buyout we were all expecting
https://x.com/edmontonoilers/status/1807444076897456602?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
Hello Dead Cap my old friend
Didn’t like our draft. Seems like we’re back to the coke machines. I was hoping to see a move to more analytics type move.
It seems like they think we lost the final because of lack of coke machines. I think strong chance they move Mcleod
I am not opposed to moving McLeod pending the return but it is the type of trade that is tough to win. McLeod’s skills are generally undervalued on the trade market.
One thing to consider is that usually the higher skill guys deeper down are undersized, or don’t like the physical side of the game
LT doesn’t mind that, for me I just look at how few make it, at least for long. Savoie now on his way somewhere else, couldn’t find his way against men. The Oilers have had quite a few of them. This draft is more like how Dallas drafts, and outside of lottery picks I prefer their record
May I ask what you consider “an analytics type move”?
I mean, do you/we have any idea what data Parkatti and his team have on these players and what their selection was based off of?
For all we know, these selections were based primarily in analytics?
Thanks again for the draft coverage, LT (and everything else through the year!).
I’m curious to see what players your math list would have delivered at the spots the Oilers picked (to get a better sense of how much offense they did leave on the board).
Personally, Clattenberg is the only pick I’d take issue with.
The Oilers certainly didn’t chase skill with every pick, but it’s hard to evaluate the Dmen with boxcars, and the goalie looks to have some positives on his resume.
For the other forwards, Wakely is obviously a high offense pick, Nicholl scored well in the playoffs and a year ago in the GOJHL, and O’Reilly does bring offense along with the tenacity in his scouting report. Easy to see the offense (Wakely) or see it growing with more opportunity (O’Reilly and Nicholl).
So yeah, I feel like Clattenberg is the only guy where it’s hard to see a path from where he is to an NHL roster.
Under wright, it seemed like the first round selections were underwhelming while later round picks had promise. This year feels like the opposite. I personally like the O’Reilly pick, although I’ll admit to not really knowing who they left on the board at that spot.
The interesting thing to me is, like LT alluded to, you can almost see the different voices in the room winning out on different selections. One analytics-type pick here, a seen him good gritensity-type pick there. Maybe the focus improves next year when we have an established GM.
A common thread I see in these picks is mostly good hockey IQ and high levels of compete. Not shrinking violets or positionally unaware players, Mostly they have a high understanding of how to play in all three zones, aren’t show of the tough areas, and compete like crazy. Could be interesting in two years or so…
I had mentioned yesterday when someone suggested the Ryan McLeod could go play with his brother that his brother won’t be playing hockey this season and, unless the NHL is offering up some sort of risk-mitigating agreement, he’s likely to be an unqualified UFA as of today.
Chris Johnston tweeted out last night that the league was NOT offering any sort of mitigating agreement for the teams so I believe the likes of McLeod, Dube, etc. will go unqualified and become UFAs – noone will sign them but I thought this was notable.
This is worrying. We shouldn’t be drafting for what we need now, but what we need in 5 years time.
Agreed. I’m also concerned over the skating of the draft picks. I haven’t read any reports that those drafted are quality skaters.
Curlock said O’Reilly’s skating isn’t a problem for one
Based on several reports O’Reilly seems to have good, and according to Button and Wheeler even plus speed, but consensus is moreso the edges and balance in tight spaces that needs work. As noted by SS here Curlock had a great breakdown of his stride and lack of concerns in his article today.
From what Ive seen Nicholl appears to be a terrific skater and not that it is the same at all but our Finnish tendy apparently is a great skater as well haha
How do they know what they’ll need five years from now? However, they did draft two RHC’s, an LHC (I would assume they can all play on the wing) a promising Goaltender, a rugged winger and a couple defensemen, one RHD & one LHD. It looks like they have their bases covered.
Because with these players being low draft picks, that’s the time they should be coming through the system.
Pracey said that he doesn’t think drafting for need is smart because needs can change quickly for the big team
As you said they drafted in all positions which makes sense as the org is depleted. They clearly liked a certain style with the forwards. To me other than Clatt they did what Pracey said and looked for skill that was under the radar because of the team, or usage
That seems to me to be analytics involved with choosing right? Finding not completely obvious skill especially later in the draft
I’m also on board with drafting forwards like these. They play two ways and have NHL size which increases their chances of making it. I never liked the small skill guy picks, they so rarely work out
To LTs point that former junior scorers change to play in the NHL, most of those guys are bigger players. They have to be to become bottom 6 players on most teams. Yama isn’t going to make it as a checker. Even Akey was a risky pick because if he doesn’t make it as a scoring D he’s too small to change into a more defensive type
My wish list:
Alex Buchnevich and Brett Pesce. Doubt we get them 🙁 ..but dear to dream.
Pesce will almost assuredly be a devil and PB will almost assuredly be much too expensive, no?
I can only see a bigger contract coming in if one goes out
Along with Campbell’s
Yep. Pesce is not coming to western Canada.
A few D-men are being bought out already, so (presumably) at least a couple could be cheap signings. Not the flashiest names, but always good to have a bit of cover
A note on O’Reilly and Nicholl.
Both played in the GOJHL last season (a year ago) and were among the top scorers, mostly against players 2-3 years older.
These two do have real skill, and I think their scoring in the league below the OHL gives credence to the idea they were buried on a strong London roster.
Hopefully with more ice in the next couple of seasons they post some crooked numbers. In the meantime, we wait.
Hopefully. I think that their games are very translatable to the NHL, at least as much as higher skill junior players taken lower in the draft that have to change their games to stay in or make the NHL
And both will be valued parts of a strong London Knight roster next season after attending training camp with the Oilers.
Almost don’t want to see Campbell on waivers and, truth be told, I hold out the fantasy that they can trade him, with some retained salary and not have to eat too much of a poison pill – would be great to see a trade that surprises us in a good way.
Stauff was fairly confidant on Friday that there would be an impactful move by the Oilers this weekend that didn’t include re-signing internal free agents – very much alluding to a cap out move and I was thinking he was getting at something other than a Campbell buyout – maybe a Ceci trade (although I thought draft for that) or a Campbell + McLeod trade out.
Friedman was clear this morning that, as of yesterday, the Oilers had NOT asked Kane to waive his NMC and, for me, I think there is close to zero chance that they approach Nurse.
As for Nurse they don’t need to trade him now, and it is better if they can upgrade the two D that are clearly not a good fit and restore Nurse’s value and confidence. I think at some point it will have to happen because of the cap, and it could also bring some quality assets into the org
However, they have to make those D changes. Have to. It’s the biggest problem the team has with the roster. SID’s last piece confirmed it, again. UFA or trade, but something. Time to finish the job Holland didn’t, or didn’t think he needed to
Somehow, even being so banged up, they almost won the Cup, and to me the thing that was the biggest drag on the team were the two RD not named Bouchard
I like the O’Reilly pick. Worked his way up to 2C on a dominant London team in his first year playing centre. On paper, he should have lots of room to grow his game. Plays a structured style that should translate to pro. But before that has the opportunity to be the guy in London.