This is the Oilers 2016-17 Woodmoney via Puck IQ. We see that Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell and Andrej Sekera took care of the most TOI versus elites, that Matt Benning was a little shy of those men but performed well, and the least likely options in the tough minutes belonged to Darnell Nurse and Eric Gryba. What about this year?
OILERS BLUE V ELITES WITH KRIS KNOBLAUCH AS COACH (REGULAR SEASON)
This is the top group, absolute edenesque results against elites. The Oilers correctly ran this duo against top opposition and with the Connor McDavid line. I don’t see a reasonable argument against the practice. I don’t know if Knoblauch, Paul Coffey or Mark Stuart deserve credit, and it doesn’t matter really, but this pairing is the best in memory wearing Oilers colours.
Here is the rest of the pack, the new coaching staff ran Nurse-Ceci one or two more shifts per game, that isn’t a huge amount. I’m bringing all of this to you (via PuckIQ, the eighth wonder of the world) because I think the Oilers organization might run them back (with one change).
Philip Broberg will work in there somewhere, but I think we might see this group (Broberg over Desharnais) in the fall. Reason? The options that were available (Brett Pesce) didn’t come here, and Broberg might be better than the rest come the spring thaw. Thoughts?
New for The Athletic: Oilers still have busy summer ahead after Week 1 of free agency
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5620206/2024/07/07/oilers-free-agency-offseason-nurse-kane/
And what of the “Sail On” series. Holland, Desharnais, Foegle, and McLeod want to know?!?
This video is very well done and really clarifies why I’ve been obsessed with acquiring this player for the past 8-9 months. I I really encourage everyone with a passion for numbers and/or player deployment to watch it:
https://youtu.be/riUQ3AgdqCM?si=3qUZ3ThPVzh8POI6
It breaks down perfectly why Nic Dowd should be a priority target for a role as a hard-matched, Dzone heavy 4th line center with Janmark and Brown as his wingers.
The video is certainly well produced, thanks for sharing.
Washington is an interesting case for zone deployment.
They were a bad possession team this season and as such they had a high number of defensive zone starts which drives DZS%.
I would guess the extreme deployments have more to do with Ovechkin being a defensive liability than Dowd being “the best defensive forward in the NHL.” This is about sheltering certain players. This isn’t to say that Dowd isn’t a very responsible or a solid player.
Some coaches are more consistent with deployment than others.
One of the techniques used by Sutter, for example, is to give his best players more defensive zone starts and his worst players offensive zone starts. There was one season with CGY where Gudbrason, Lucic and Zadorov were leaders in offensive zone start percentage, out ranking forwards like Tkachuk and Mangiapane. Zadorov’s xGF% and CF% were golden (thanks coach). Sutter had a conservative approach that prioritized sheltering over scoring and together with volume shooting caused his teams to have great analytics. But it seems the approach was not appreciated by his star players.
BTW, one way to help Nurse and the second pair is to give them more shelter, more offensive zone starts and more McDavid time. Ask 14 & 2 to carry the puck out of the zone more often.
Part of Nurse’s poor plus minus in the playoffs was due to increased defensive zone deployment. This combined with him not being paired with a decent puck moving defender caused issues.
Sutter would have deployed Nurse to score and Bouchard to move the puck up the ice. Knoblauch did the opposite.
Dr 25’s GF% follows his OZS%
Nurse Playoffs 5v5
20212022: OZS% 54.29, GF% 53.66
20222023: OZS% 49.15, GF% 47.62
20232024: OZS% 40.59, GF% 35.90
I agree
I spent many hours watching Dowd play this season, his positioning is sublime. He reminds me of Henrique in how he plays the game. And he has a bit more speed than AH.
While I am at it, Sam O’Reilly plays the same way as these guys. On top of this, he plays a more aggressive Ozone game. At least that is how I see it.
Me… I’m looking forward to seeing Noah Philp.
So am I, I follwed him closely at U Sport & Bakersfield, but he is no Nic Dowd and Philp was away from Pro Hockey for 1 season, after only playing 1 season of Pro Hockey.
Hope is great to have, but realistically, it is possible that he could have a very difficult time and may not be what he once was.
I am hoping for Kane and Ceci for Parayko . If we can get St Louis to retain 2.5m we can run 23 men. If they retain 1.5 we run 22.
may take other pieces to balance it out but that is bones of the idea.
Imagine… Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Parayko, Kulak-Broberg….
For some reason I also think Kane ends up in St. Louis
Kane would have to waive his NMC. It’s the same problem as dreaming up Nurse trade scenarios.
Parayko’s contract now looks like a bit of a bargain by comparison to some of the deals that were signed by RHD on July 1.
This has been something that I’ve been expecting since before the Ekholm acquisition.
He was the guy I was hoping for at the TD last season. The contract is long but our time is now.
And how does that affect the 3 big signings we have in the next 2 years?
Kind of strange that Kane is deciding if he should have surgery as he’s been replaced on the roster as if he’s a goner
There’s certainly an understanding of some sort there.
What exactly it is, is a different question.
Kane is currently having a time at the Stampede here in Calgary.
I was thinking about goals and Jackson doing what he did getting Skinner and Arvi actually may turn out to be more important than I thought. Foegele who got too expensive for them and was a liability in playoffs scored 17 5v5 goals. Kane scored 15
If Kane does start LTIR that’s 32 down. S and A scored 27 and should probably see increased production. Skinner was on a pretty good line but I believe Arvi had Danault as his main C. That might have been a big problem. Both are also better scorers than Foegele and actual top 6. If and when Kane comes back that’s a good boost
What a coup
Skinner-Arvidsson-Henrique can all score at least 20 goals in their sleep. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 80 plus goals between the 3 if they go with a 2nd PP.
Aggregate the last three regular season and Foegele has 0.83 G/60 and Arvidsson 0.77 G/60.
Foegele play 677 minutes with Drai and 2005 minutes without Drai during that period.
The LA depth chart is shaping up to have Byfield centering the second line with Foegele and Fiala as wingers.
Depending on Byfield’s continuing development, all three players could approach 25-30 goals.
Doesn’t matter when your team has replaced Matt Roy with Joel Edmonson.
He should be a perfectly acceptable , although pricey, 3LD in LAs lock down system.
He’s a pylon. Overpaid with too much term. The cap space they saved by trading PLD, Blake lit on fire on July 1.
LA is worse than they were last season, and they were already worse than they were the season before. When Kopitar and Doughty fall off the age cliff, the Kings are going to be a lottery team for the next decade with Blake at the helm, with Marc Bergevin behind the current pulling his strings.
The lockdown system that allowed 22GA in 5 playoff games?
LA’s depth chart should keep them fighting for a Wild card spot and a quick goodbye in playoffs
What do you think of Blake’s work in LA?
I think he told Chiarelli to hold his beer.
This sounds almost like a carbon copy comment from last year from HH when the Kings got PLD. That PLD would unlock Fiala and PLD and Fiala would tear up the league together.
HH, is this your new alias?
Found the comment:
”
Harpers Hair
Reply to SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!
August 16, 2023 8:54 pm
The only concern I have with LA is their goaltending but I’d be just as concerned about SkinnerCamobell.
Skinner was exposed in the playoffs .883 3.68 GAA.
Campbell is a box of chocolates.
PLD should easily score 30G 70P since the plan is to play him with Fiala and Arvidsson and of course that allows Danault to play on a shutdown line and he’s much better than McLeod.
Adding a full season of Gavrikov and phenom Brandt Clarke will make the Kings D among the the best in the conference.”
That aged poorly.
and PLD producing 70 points is alot more realistic than Warren Foegele approaching 30 goals.
I can’t think of a single thing that would suggest Warren Foegele would approach 30 goals in that situation.
Why do you keep changing handles?
Skinner McDavid Hyman
Henrique Drai Avidsson
Kane RNH Savoie
Janmark Holloway Brown
Ek Bouch
Nurse Bro
Kulak Stecher
Wonder if Perry getting 1.4 seems high because both sides anticipate some serious AHL time and it takes some sugar to send a hall of famer to the farm.
My guess is it’s I only have to play enough to be able to when needed, no buses
His actual cap hit for this season is right at the amount that can be fully buried.
But there’s no RS C. They usually want at least one
Probably the only reason Ryan is still playing is winning RS faceoffs
FWIW, Savoie is technically a RHC
Noah Philp will replace Ryan this season.
Savoie may play some games this season but might replace Skinner in the top 6 for next season.
Most prospect evaluators are projecting that Savoie will be a wing in the NHL though.
So much better discussing roster tweaks for a team that was a game away from the cup, that has significantly improved its roster in the last week instead of trying to convince ourselves how the top pair of Nikitin and Fayne should be able to hold up as long as Scrivens has a good year. ????????
Preach!
Whatever happened to the notion of trading everyone’s favorite Greyhound to the Penguinos for Erik Karlsson?
That would Woodguy’s idea, IIRC.
I am on-board with the trade – I’m one that always evaluates moves as they effect the medium and long term and have long-stated that having players on ELCs and cheap second contracts that they out-perform is critical.
I like Warren Foegle, and have long-opined that he’s proven he CAN produce at top 6 levels when playing with high end players. At the same time, I’ve also stated for a while that the Oilers won’t be able to afford to bring him back on his UFA contract – he earned the big ticket and he’s price.
There is little doubt that swapping McLeod and Foegle for Skinner and Arvidsson is an upgrade to the lineup – its more dynamic and skilled and has unreal offensive potential.
Adding two big time 5 on 5 players is massive.
At the same time, while Arvidsson and Skinner are fine skaters, there is little doubt the the Oilers have decreased team speed. Yes, I know, sometimes McLeod “was just doing cardio” but those two were both VERY good skaters, McLeod being a top 3 in the league skater, and they did push back the defence, in particular McLeod.
They were also both solid members of the PK, a PK that was intergral in the Oilers playoff run
Losing those two off the PK, plus the fact (or my opinion) that Derek Ryan cannot play nightly, well, that is something that will need to be dealt with.
I would think that they start to work Holloway in to the PK but there will be some work to do to it back near the level it has been recently. I think Arvidsson did some killing back in Nashville (he didn’t in LA). I think the PK is largely structure based as long as the players are able “think the game” as a good level (i.e determine when to press, etc.).
I’m sure it the PK and the team speed will be OK but it will look different, that’s for sure.
We need to stop saying that McLeod is anything other than a passable defensive player. He often misread the most threatening opponent in the neutral and defensive zones and struggled to control the puck along the boards or make a simple clear when the team was under pressure in the defensive zone. While he is certainly an NHL player, his speed helped to mask some of his weaknesses. While Feogle showed more flashes of offensive talent this season his inconsistent effort, specifically in the playoffs, was a concern added to his D-zone coverage and clearing problems similar to Mcleod’s.
I don’t think I (or we) need to stop saying anything because you have a differing opinion.
We can certainly discuss the subject.
You say “his speed masks some weakness” but, on other hand, his speed is part of his game and positively contributes to play on the ice and part of that might just be “masking weaknesses” – if he uses his speed to mitigate a weakness, is it still a weakness?
McLeod struggled at time this playoffs but, for all those weakness, when he’s on the ice, the Oilers get scored on less, to a tune of 1.85 GA/60 this season (and he did play 30% of his TOI vs. elites and sawed off to a 50% goal share).
McLeod and Foegele had positive GF% the last two reg seasons and both cratered to bad GF% the last two playoffs. WF did do better in the finals and broke even to his credit but had high GA
Janmark was opposite and still around. You have to play well when it counts the most, and the former two didn’t get it done defensively two times
There’s a reason both players were benched in critical playoff games. I liked both players speed keeps stone handed players in the league. I myself would of pumped and dumped Foegele during the season. Look what we recieved for the speedy McLeod.
Dave Pagnotta thing the Oilers are actively working on a move for the defence.
3 days ago, I was getting somewhat convinced that Kane would at least start the season on LTIR, now there are reports of him golfing and doing activities around town so who the eff knows (aside from Kane and Jeff Jackson)?
Man that’s weird. Kane may be able to do things but perhaps not NHL hockey, or he’s an amazingly fast healer
Working on D, JJ does not sit on his hands. New GM is going to be bored, if there is one after all
Andrew Ference was running triathalons in his last year with the Oilers and he spent the final year on LTIR
It was a hip/leg injury, and the public explanation was he could perform triathlons, but not play hockey/skate at an NHL level
But you’re right, who the hell knows
As for the D, I can’t see Jackson trading Ceci and running with the current group – that would leave the Oilers exposed at that position and that runs counter to everything he’s done so far this summer
If he trades Ceci for salary cap reasons, someone else has to be coming in to backfill the position
Agreed – I am NOT comfortable with Josh Brown being one injury away from the lineup (and a lineup that already has Broberg on his off side in the top 4 and Stecher as 3RD).
It would be nice if Phil Kemp could step in and be a 12-13 minute plus 2PK guy but, of course, we just can’t hope that’s the case and need to ensure there is cover.
Be nice to have Kesslering to kick the tires on
Oh, yes, I was immediate in my reaction when the trade dropped – I did not like the Kesselring inclusion (I think the Kesselring for Dineen swap was the price for the retainment).
Holland under-valued Kesselring in my opinion – massively
The answer is probably trading Nurse for a cheaper 2RD in the $5–$6 million range. Then you can keep everyone else including Ceci which gives great depth. My idea is Risto (if he has fully recovered) but this will not be an easy deal in any way shape or form.
The answer lies in moving both Ceci & Kulak. Ceci for an upgrade at 2RD and Kulak for cap reasons as well as Broberg. That gives Jackson $6M of cap space to go shopping with and the obvious place for Broberg to spend his first full year in the NHL.
Yes, I know. Kulak is a fine dman. A quality 3LD who can move up now and then.
But that does not mitigate the fact that on a cap tight team his position has to come in for less money.
You don’t trade either guy unless you have the 2RD in hand but the moment that position is upgraded Kulak becomes not only expendable but a must move if they want to keep Broberg – which I would hope they do.
Good point. We’re so conditioned to the glacial pace that Holland worked at, that we’re assuming that Jackson and the AGMs would only make one move to address the defense, when it would be more in keeping with what we’ve seen so far for them to continue being aggressive and rebalance the defense by moving out both Kulak and Ceci.
Neither guy has trade protection and both players have value, having just come off a Finals appearance. 6 million in combined salary.
Broberg-Stecher would be a decent third pairing, with Brown subbing in when a little more muscle is required.
But who do they a target as the 2RD to replace Ceci? That D-man would have be able to make a good first pass and replace Ceci on the PK.
I think the best option is just down the road in Calgary but we both know Conroy will never make that trade so it would have to involve a 3rd team.
I really don’t follow other teams so I generally try to not embarrass myself by making proposals but on CapFriendly here is the list of right shot dmen who are
Seth Jones – too expensive
Parayko – I like him more than others
Severson – don’t know enough
Pulock – don’t know enough
Zub – don’t know anything
Andersson – my 1st choice
Savard – not an upgrade imo
Ceci – ????
Roy – just signed so not available
Seider – not available at any cost
Ristolainen – intriguing but don’t know enough about his injury for one thing.
That’s it as far as I can see for aisle #1.
I’ve liked Andersson for a while, but they’d want either a pick in next year’s draft or a top prospect like O’Reilly or Savoie. Love Parayko but he makes too much to salve our cap space issues. Columbus would have to eat at least 2 million and take Ceci back … Kekalainen would have done that deal, but I doubt Wadell would. Risto is like a RH version of Nurse … the two of them together would be bad comedy.
Yup. No doubt at all that any trade other than Andersson would have to involve retention and only two or three look like an upgrade worth exploring.
It wasn’t just “Holland sitting on his hands”. This is a hard one to make work.
Dobson escaped the CapFriendly search because he is listed under 195 lbs but I assume he isn’t available at any price either.
Yeah, it’s slim pickings.
Severson is signed for $6.25m for the next 7 years. He turns 30 this August. I’d pass.
Zub is the Twitter analytics darling, but I don’t know why Ottawa would trade him.
I had mentioned Andersson last year, but man, Craig Conroy’s mission in life is to create road blocks for the Oilers.
He gave away all his good players to any team we could face on the playoffs. I’m guess he has us playing the Devils in the SCF next year.
Zub has been my RHD of choice since the year we played in the North division. He’s a nasty bit of business who’s not puck optional, the new/young Gudas. All but guarantee Steady Steve wouldn’t sell him off but for a franchise altering overpayment.
What about something along the lines of Kane for Parayko? What would worry me is taking on the increased term, as both players are somewhat injury prone so that comes out in the wash.
I think it would have to be Kane and Ceci for Parayko with 2.4 retained for the dollars to work if we plan on running 23 men. YMMV, of course
Gets St Louis out of a five year commitment on Parayko, gets Ceci with 1 more year and Kane with 2 more years…
That would be bold
But, as we’ve seen so far this summer, JJ doesn’t shy away from bold
I like this a lot. Good idea.
Trading Ceci for an upgrade when there is no current room to take up cap seems like an unrealistic task.
Which is why I said Kulak has to go as well in order to create the cap necessary to acquire an upgrade.
You did read that part, no?
Trade Ceci & a prospect for a top RHD prospect, similar to what they did with the MacLeod for Matthew Savoie deal.
Ceci and Bourgault for Simon Nemec….?
Could work. Risky moving out three guys one off season. You just never know how new blue will work themselves into the mix.
I was wondering if something else could happen. This regime seems aggressive enough to find an upgrade at D. It will have to be ultra creative at this point. Expect the unexpected is new to us, so exciting!
Ference was doing athletic stuff too, and he still went on LTIR because he couldn’t do hockey.
Ference retired, dressed up as LTIR.
I think Kane plans on playing hockey again.
I see a material difference in the scnearios.
I think one of the biggest pluses for this coming season will be Darnell Nurse getting back to established levels of play. He was so far below it in the playoffs that I believe there was more to it than just a slump or a poor season.
I understand that previous levels of play and numbers were bolstered by McDavid minutes but, at the same time, he was literally playing some of the toughest minutes in the league for a few years with TOI vs. elites bordering on 40+ percent and with the likes of Cody Ceci and, prior, Tyson Barrie as his partner.
I believe that Nurse should be able to anchor a high end second pairing.
If Nurse can’t anchor a high end second pair, then Broberg can.
$9.25M needs to be able to anchor a high end second pair. Cap efficiency, right.
Absolutely. Good to hear they are still working on the D. They have to find him a partner that gets him playing well again to minimize the damage of the salary. And also of course so the team is better
Between the two of them, one should be able too.
Agreed, the one who makes $9.25M.
Can he adapt to a shut-down role? His deployment in the playoffs shifts more to a shut-down role as Knoblauch deploys 14 & 2 to score.
Playoffs 5v5
20212022: OZ% 54.29, GF% 53.66
20222023: OZ% 49.15, GF% 47.62
20232024: OZ% 40.59, GF% 35.90
Did they not run Kulak with Nurse at one point – maybe against Dallas? If I recall the results were actually pretty good and I thought they might continue running the pairings that way.
In my mind, Broberg is essentially training to take Kulak’s job as 3LD, so I don’t know why you would break him in on his off-side. Whoever plays 2RD should be a temporary fix, in which case a veteran makes sense as you’re not then stunting a young player’s development. Then either at the trade deadline or next year we get a permanent fix for 2RD and everyone slides into their usual spots.
Kulak is smart and quick enough to scoot and cover breakdowns when they happen.That would let us run Broberg on his strong side with Ceci as a bottom pair. If Kulak knocks it out of the park as 2RD you can then slide him to 3RD and make Ceci entirely expendable.
Kulak had never played RHD since peewee and although they didn’t bleed much, the pairing got absolutely fed. Whether that’s because Dallas was just quality and Nurse was in his tailspin could be debated, it wasn’t strong results.
We’ve done this before with Kulak moving up to 2LD pre-Ekholm. Below-average results.
They prefer Broberg over Kulak on his off-side with Nurse. They’re going to find out if they prefer Stecher & Brown with Kulak on the third pair instead of Ceci very soon. I suspect they already know the answer to that.
From NHL_SID
“Nurse and Kulak may have been Edmonton’s best second pair. Kulak is naturally a left defenceman, but following a loss to the Dallas Stars in Game 3 of the WCF, Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey decided to try Kulak on his off-side alongside Nurse. While the pair was out-scored 1 to 3, they finally controlled shots, expected goals, and high-danger chances, unlike the other defensive pairs.”
“Unfortunately, per Rob Brown on 630 CHED, Kulak was reportedly not as comfortable playing on his off-side. This is likely why Edmonton split Nurse and Kulak heading into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, despite winning three straight games in the WCF with that pairing.”
This is kind of what I recall, thanks for finding that. Makes sense if the player wasn’t comfortable with it that they wouldn’t want to keep going with the experiment, but I did at least remember that the underlying metrics weren’t terrible. Getting outscored 3-1 is pretty bad though
I started writing this in response to BRUS but it got too long
Balance is a thing. We know that playoffs are a different animal. The previous regime accumulated quite a few players that were one or two dimensional, but didn’t work to balance those traits out. I think that also contributed to the problems with the other lines doing enough, along with the bottom pairs not being good enough
They also accumulated too many players that wanted to pass first, and weren’t aggressive or hungry enough to score. I think that is why the further they get into playoffs the more trouble they had, and against the Knights they Duo would start pushing and doing what they could get away with reg season, but it sunk them in playoffs. Against the Panthers they were less risky, but again couldn’t get enough goals, and as it went it wasn’t because Bob
Jackson helped the lack of shooters in a fell swoop, Arvi and Skinner like to shoot and shoot well, or better. As for D, I think that they need a meaner back end. In who ended up playing in the end, they weren’t hard for the Panthers to play against, and weren’t taking players out of the play enough
It’s not about nailing guys all the time, but finishing a check that delays the forward really helps breaking the attack and breaking out, it is so apparent when it happens, doesn’t happen enough. After reading all the great work by NHL_SID, B Curlock, CoH, people here and others, and using PuckIQ, it’s pretty clear what they need, and not surprisingly it’s the same as it ever was in what makes NHL D good or less good
Good team D starts in the other end, and KK has improved that and they will keep improving. A good forecheck and F3 higher in the O zone messes up the other team coming out. For D outside of their zone the best thing they can do is be good at the blue lines. Don’t let the puck out, and take shots that help score or create chances. Outside of the top pair they aren’t good enough consistently at that. Bro will help a lot as he settles, and Kulak isn’t bad if he stays. Who knows with Action Jackson what’s brewing
If the other team is coming, the D need to not just give up the N zone. They have to be smart enough to know when and what to do. It’s a lot easier on the team if they don’t have to even go to their end, or the attack can’t make it in clean
If they get through the N zone standing up at the blue line is so important, and this is a problem as it stands with the D they have. Nurse used to be good at it but has had issues two seasons now. Ceci is not good at it many looks into it have shown. Kulak is ok, Bro will be good at it
Standing up gets the puck or forces a dump. The top pair does well, Kulak pretty good, Bro great already. Again it’s Nurse and Ceci that have issues – Nurse used to be pretty good at it, I wonder what is going on with him
And this is where the problem lies. Is it Ceci or is it Nurse, or both? Nurse isn’t going anywhere soon, but there is no way they can go into playoffs again set up like this and keep all the kudos earned by JJ, they shouldn’t have these playoffs. I don’t know what they look at internally or see when they watch but it’s obvious to a lot of people not working for the team
Ceci’s strength is in zone D. That’s good because he ends up playing a lot of it, and that’s bad. I think he’s a decent NHL player, but doesn’t fit in this group. I also think given what his game is he’s not physical enough and he’s not a mean player. He’s easy to play against. He made some checks these playoffs, but he isn’t consistent at it. I also felt as it went he couldn’t break up the attack, he was trying to stay in position, but was chasing around not getting to a player or the puck. He was also letting players get out front and the puck through him out front. That is a tiring way to play, takes a lot of energy and is stressful
LT always says young D will break your heart. Don’t develop in a straight line. Bro did very well, but to my eye was far from looking like a smooth NHL D making routine plays. He will be, he’s not now and given how little he’s played up it makes sense. It would is risky to have him pencilled in as 2RD. He and Nurse got crushed in everything but GF%, but that will regress to the meat with those possession numbers
Being hard to play against is so important in the playoffs. So to me you balance pairs with that in mind. Vinny to me was not good enough and can’t play a high enough tempo game (I think Ceci also struggles here). The Brown signing was surprising. I haven’t watched him play or noticed him much. I read up what I could, and he was the fella that shut Connor down in the CHL playoffs. I guess that’s why they got him. And he’s a huge mean dude. Stecher is ok, I think better than Ceci overall, but he’s smaller and not fast, it’s said he can move the puck
I wonder what the plan is? I thought last summer they should have reset the D group and signed some depth D. I would have moved Kulak (cap) and Ceci and tried to go long with Bouch. Would have saved millions down the road. It keeps getting mentioned that they like Kulak and I do too, but he is in Bro’s spot and doesn’t like playing RD. The top 2 LD aren’t going anywhere soon
If Bro is RD I would have him as 3RD with Kulak. I still prefer more physicality and someone that can play tough net front. They would probably move the puck well, but would struggle against a physical playoff opponent. I think we will see many teams try to run them in playoffs, it’s the easiest tactic when your outgunned
If this is what they are starting with, I don’t see a spot for Ceci. If the rotate Ceci Stecher Brown it devalues Ceci. Let’s not do that anymore, he probably has the highest value he’s ever had right now, off a finals and made a few good offensive plays, lower contract, not old, RS. Assuming they think these are all playable NHL D I would set them up
Ek Bouch
Nurse Stecher
Kulak Bro/Brown
I don’t like the idea of not playing Bro as much as possible, they need to get him as much experience as possible before playoffs. They ended up needing Holloway and Bro in the playoffs in key roles, let’s not go down that road anymore of not getting them enough experience. If Nurse gets back to his meaner self, it’s probably enough physicality and size especially if Brown is in, for playoffs, and enough puck moving if Stecher plays well and actually can move the puck
It’s a better group I think. I’m not for deadline pick ups just because, it wastes assets and guarantees nothing. Acquiring depth for low picks or lower prospects is fine, but keep your first and seconds, unless you are doing something like replacing Stecher with a significant upgrade or the like. But significant. If last year’s group got to the finals this one would, especially given the forwards were upgraded quite a bit
I totally agree. But why not keep Broberg with Nurse and play Stecher/Brown with Kulak?
There are numerous other options to look at too. I too think it’s a good group.
Nurse Bro got fed and got lucky with GF% in not many games. Way too risky for a team in this position. But I bet they try it for a while. Bro may knock it out of the park, but the odds aren’t great considering everything
Just hope Bro wouldn’t pick up bad habits from him!
Heh. Maybe it’s contagious
IMO Broberg is the best available option with Nurse, within the organization that is.
Truth
The were playing against Florida where Florida’s 2nd and 3rd lines dominated the Oilers 2nd and 3rd lines.
Yes but really they play as a unit, the D play a big role in getting the breakout going, making the right first pass. The forwards were ‘usually’ supporting the breakout coming low enough so Curlock says
Although G7 they weirdly stopped doing what had won them 3 in a row
Wow.
So your solution is to trade Ceci and go with Stecher at 2RD and Brown at part time 3RD? Seems very optimistic.
I would not trade Ceci, because he is significantly better than Stecher and Brown.
If this is the dcore we start the season with I see three options.
1. Eckholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Kulak Ceci
Start the season with the same defense you ended the playoffs.
2. Eckholm Bouchard
Nurse Kulak
Broberg Ceci
I think they tried Nurse and Kulak for 1 game in the playoffs, and went away from it because Kulak wasn’t comfortable with it. Might be something to revisit in training camp.
3 Nurse Bouchard
Eckholm Broberg
Kulak Ceci
If Nurses best results came with McDavid, maybe they should put him back there. Also, Nurses best results came with Bear, so maybe they should pair him with another puck moving right shot partner.
None of these configurations are optimal, but at least they dress the 6 best defensemen on the roster each night.
I think the thing you need to realize is that Josh Brown is signed for three years @ $1M and Troy Stecher is signed for two years @ $787,500. While Cody Ceci is signed for one more year @ $3.25M. This is significant.
Stecher can play Ceci’s role (third pair rd) for less than a third of the cap hit. Plus you get assets back from a Ceci trade. I don’t agree that Ceci is significantly better. I could buy marginally better, but the cap hit difference justifies the down grade imo
Ceci’s role from last year will be taken by Broberg who imo is trending to be significantly better than Ceci moving forward
To me there have been so many breakdowns of the Oilers D it’s too much for me not to accept what they all say. Ceci isn’t good at moving the puck overall, or anything but in zone D (good positioning usually) which means he defends a lot, his pair can’t get the puck out, and he doesn’t break cycles well
I checked and Stecher has better stats with the Coyotes and in the Oiler games he played than Ceci. His GF% was better on the worse Coyotes and especially Oilers than Ceci. Ceci reg season had the worst SF% on the D group except the few games Bro played
To me it seems Stecher is a better player. Ceci is a lot bigger but doesn’t use it much. That’s how it seemed watching Stecher as well to me. He’s more aware and more assertive
I get what your saying, and I imagine they try Bro with Nurse, I expect it won’t be great because of the stats they had. Bro is the only D that has a chance of playing well off hand, so if it doesn’t work given who they have lead to my pairings. Of course there could be other moves. With Holland we knew there wouldn’t likely be, Jackson who knows
I also agree that if they can get a better functioning second pair they should use Bouch with Drai and help him out at least half the time. Connor can do it without and might get help with one of the new wingers
Actually I was suggesting they play Nurse and Bouchard with McDavid in my 3rd option.
I think you value Stecher a lot higher than I do. And maybe Oilers management does too. Maybe they are planning on trading Ceci without bringing in a replacement.That would explain why they signed Stecher AND Brown. That never made sense to me.
I was scared reading the suggestion of trading Ceci with Stecher playing 3RD. I don’t think there is any evidence that Stecher can be a strong 3RD of a serious contender.
Counting on Stecher to be 2RD would be incredibly risky…possibly foolish.
Nurse Bouch is something they should try. Easier on Ek at his age
I don’t value Stecher highly but he has been 2nd pair and is closer to what Nurse needs than Ceci. Stats say pretty similar. I’d prefer a young Trouba stylistically who doesnt score a bunch of points so is affordable
I agree that as of now, I wouldn’t mind seeing:
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Stecher
Kemp/Brown
Nurse/Bouchard have had success in the past for stretches and I think Nurse with McDavid will help drive Nurse’s confidence back up and his game to where it has been in the past.
If the Oil decide to stay status quo on defense, they line up with four LHD (Ekholm, Nurse, Broberg & Kulak) And four RHD (Bouchard, Ceci, Stecher & Brown) Whereas it’s not ideal,
there is functionality and they could go into the season with seven of those eight Dmen, sending one down to be cap compliant. They nearly won it all last season without the extra depth of Stecher & Brown. But sooner or later something is going to shake loose. I don’t think JJ is one to sit on his hands. So, I expect something sooner, rather than later. The days of Kenny Holland are gone, gone gone.
Here’s a thought I haven’t seen before, please tell me if I’m crazy. If we are pairing Nurse with Broberg, why not tell Nurse that next season he will be the one on his off-side? Broberg is the younger one, Nurse is the vet – have him adjust to accomodate Broberg and maximize his ability to move the puck.
Agreed, Nurse greatest strength as a defender is his skating which should help on his off side. His greatest weakness is his passing, if he finds this hard to do and focuses on skating it out of the zone or deferring to his partner it could be a win-win.
Broberg’s greatest strength is his skating, and he has experience playing the right side.
In my opinion, we don’t switch because Broberg is younger, more adaptable and faster in moving the puck.
Abd that we need Nurse to bump up his performance by 20% so let him run with whatever he needs to get going.
The combination of these two things will lead to a stronger pairing.
I’d rather see them pair up Broberg with Bouchard and move Ekholm with Nurse. Let Ekholm adjust to playing on his off-side, which would no doubt be a quicker adjustment than Nurse’s.
I have my doubts they would separate Ek & Bouch. So, you’re crazy. LOL
Ekholm is too slow to play the right side anymore, except for penalty killing.
For me because there is no clear D that plays well off hand, I wouldn’t go there. There have been looks into it in the past and almost every D off hand has a pretty fair drop off moving the puck. There are also issues at the offensive blue line keeping the puck in or stopping clears on the boards because your stick isn’t on the boards
These are things they need to improve over last year, so put everyone in the best spot to play their best. The margins are very thin in the final 4, you need to maximize everything as best as possible
Broberg has played the right side often in his career. Why do people insist on making it more complicated than it has to be.
Cooper moved Sergachev to the right side in the top four to begin with. He didn’t move McDonagh from his strong side to his weak side.
Shout out to Cody Ceci. He gets discussed a lot but I have to say he played really really well in game 7.
Shout out for the nice pass. How well he played depends on what you value
He made the pass to set up a scoring chance which ended up as a goal and was on for a goal against. SCF% 37.5, CF% 36, SF% 42.86. If you lose the possession battle you often lose the game, you get scored on more
The others that were on for a GA in game 7
Bouchard 1, Nuge 1, Drai 1, Foegele 2, Kulak 2, McLeod 2
The stats for the other guys who were scored on
Bouch SCF% 75 / CF% 67.27 / SF% 73.68
Nuge SCF% 44.44 / CF% 45.16 / SF% 55.56
Drai SCF% 66.67 / CF% 64.29 / SF% 55
Foegele SCF% 45.45 / CF% 42.86 / SF% 40
Kulak SCF% 25 / CF% 34.78 / SF% 35.71
McLeod SCF% 0-3 / CF% 16.67 / SF% 25
He stood tall.
He also was one of the major culprits on the GA that lost the game.
Ceci? On the Reinhart goal?
Surely you are joking, right?
We know that he is not.
In 2020-21 Nurse was 48.7% DFF and 37.5% TOI (Bear was 58%!). In 2021-22, Nurse was 54% DFF and 41% vs elite. Now Im sure he road shotgun with McDavid a lot but recent trend isnt good. 2022-23 he was 49.1% DFF and 34% TOI. Last year, 49.9% DFF and 30% TOI. So the team is improving and they are fading his qual comp and the results arent improving.
So it looked quite promising in 2021-22 but the overall body of work doesnt scream 9.25m unfortunately (thanks captain obvious ha). Id consider going 25 with 2 and seeing if Ekholm the D whisperer can unlock Broberg. The play at the TDD is v likely to upgrade Ceci. Or keep Ceci (hed be UFA) and have 7 quality D.
The money is tight but Id also really consider a 4 years x 2m offer for Broberg. If they can offload Kane they have enough money to do so and these type of moves will make the 97/29/2 extensions easier to absorb (similar to getting Savoie and OReily).
Go Oilers!
I think you are onto something here. If Nurse can improve his game that could be the biggest bump in performance for the d group.
And the answer may already be in house in the form of Broberg.
I like Broberg a lot, and he was a revelation down the stretch in the playoffs.
That being said, expecting a 23 year old with <100 games of NHL experience to be a Top 4 D on a playoff contender while playing on his off side is a risky bet. I get that Kulak/Ceci can slide up if Broberg struggles, but history has shown us that Nurse-Ceci/Kulak is not a recipe for sustained success.
Running a 3rd pairing with a combined $6M cap hit (Kulak: 2.75M, Ceci 3.25M) doesn’t seem like an efficient use of the Oilers cap $. I get that Top 4 RHD don’t grow on trees and the acquisition cost would be dear, but packaging Ceci with prospects/draft capital for a player like Alex Carrier would be an ideal solution, allowing Broberg to slide down to the 3rd pairing (maybe playing his off side with Kulak), with Stetcher/Brown the #4 RHD in case of injury
I do think that the plan for the Oilers will be to run Broberg as the #2 RHD at the start of the season and address the position before the trade deadline if necessary.
It does feel (finally) like the Oilers are a well run organization, so I feel less anxious/nervous about roster construction. Gone are the days of banking on prospects with moderate AHL success to step into feature roles on the NHL roster.
If Broberg was able to be a revelation down the stretch in the playoffs, as a 23-year-old on his off-side. Then why wouldn’t he be able to do the same during the regular season? Besides he’s a year older and has probably found his confidence.
Because young D don’t always develop in a straight line, like LT always says
Small sample size?
underlying stats weren’t good?
There you go being negative again. LOL
Small sample size against the two strongest teams in the NHL, where he literally leapfrogged over three D in the pecking order.
Broberg also had two months of strong 3rd pairing play the previous series, stabilizing a Bouchard who had gotten off to a horrible start.
McDavid made Tanev looked pretty bad. And also showed that Forsling was not superhuman on D. In small sample sizes. And also had several moments against Heiskanen, the best all around D in the NHL.
That’s the thing though … when McDavid turned Heiskanen inside out on that highlight real goal, Heiskanen was playing his off-hand side cause Tanev was in the box. Even the best all around D in the league got exposed. There are too many good forwards in the league now.
TB won their Cups in the bubble … Sergachev was seeing the same players game after game.
Yes they could use Broberg as the 2RD next season, and may very well have to. But I like that Jackson and the AGMs are still trying to find a better balance.
After the first couple of games, DeBoer moved away from playing Tanev against McDavid and changed his D pairs, moving Lindell to play with Heiskanen, and predominantly trying to match Heiskanen against McDavid, at even strength.
Heiskanen always played on his offside with Dallas this year, and he regularly PK’s on his off side.
How is it possible to gauge the affect the forwards have in the defensive pairs?
To measure defence on breakouts, holding the blue line, clearing the net etc.?
Generalizing, I think the group can pass the puck up fairly well, we seen this from all but Desharnais.
Weaknesses to my eye are breaking the cycle and clearing the net front.
Individual weaknesses backing in too far.
As a group offence was very good, contributions from everyone and adapted well to other teams systems.
Of course they can come back with same group, but don’t underestimate how big a deal it would be to get another Ekholm.
In a salary cap world, you can optimize your team by getting more value per dollar spent.
I think trading Ceci for picks/prospects gets us the closest to optimized and is the best solution
-Broberg is almost a lock to be better this year at 2 rd than Ceci was last year
-Stecher can play 3 rd effectively for less than a third of the price of Ceci
-Dropping Ceci,s contract allows them to become cap compliant after signing Broberg and Holloway and including Kane’s cap hit
-Avoids LTIR, which allows us to accumulate cap space through the season for potential trade deadline additions
-Kane can be activated and help the team as soon as he’s healthy and without the need for more roster moves
-High likelihood that Nurse’s game recovers and he can provide solid to excellent second pairing minutes with Broberg
-Jeff Jackson has just proven he can execute a roster player trade with a return that nobody expected. What can he get for the rare “Second pairing, right shot d man” on a reasonable and expiring contract?
Adam Larsson’s heading into the last season of his contract with the Kraken and would check a lot of boxes as a rental.
Larsson will never be a Oiler again.
I’m fine with moving on from Ceci with the right plan. I don’t think there is evidence to support the notion that Stecher can be an effective 3rd on a Stanley Cup contender.
Mr. Hart from Sherwood Park, might be able to be secured for creatively structured contract at good value for the Oilers.
$1,125,000 x2 on a two way with a minor league guarantee of $300,000 might be something to think about?
I wouldn’t go near any of those players until after their trial.
I believe in innocent until proven guilty and I also believe in redemption.
But I agree these players are stuck in no man’s land right now, nothing can be done, or should be done.
even if you had irrefutable proof of innocence or outcome, you still can’t do anything because of optics, plus, it’s just the right thing to do.
Hopefully, Jackson is someone who recognizes that you don’t damage a billion-dollar brand to save a million or two at a single position.
It’s telling that even desperate teams like the Leafs, who among other things needed a goalie this off-season, and signed a RHD in Haakenpaa whose knee is so arthritic that he may never be able to play in the NHL again, didn’t go anywhere near Hart.
No one is going anywhere near any of those players right now. They should go sign contracts in some obscure Euro league and stay off the radar under their trial is complete.
Although innocent until proven guilty, I wouldn’t sign any of these players for the same reason I don’t want them to consider Bowman for gm. I don’t think Bowman was even charged with a crime was he?
You can’t be serious, can you?
I am ok with running back the six D from the SCF.
That said, I think the bottom two pairing’s inability to outlet the puck suppresses a lot of Oilers offence. My theory is reflected in the puckIQ numbers.
I am skeptical that Broberg will be a serviceable 2 RHD. I will be happy to be wrong.
All that said, I am content to address the issue in season when other teams are more willing to wheel.
Agreed on the bottom 2 pairs and offense
Nurse literallly went from about -1 per game to +1 per game playing with Broberg.
The OIlers went from 0-2 against Florida to 3-2 vs Florida with Nurse playing with Broberg.
The Dallas series litterally turned when Broberg was inserted into the lineup.
We are talking about the Conference finals and the Stanley Cup finals here, after sitting for over six weeks.
If is frustrating to think what might have happened if the Oilers had gotten to Nurse Broberg earlier.
Yes, in a perfect world, Broberg would play left D. And that is where he may play three years from now. But that is not where the OIlers need him to play now.
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.
Yes. You have made your position clear. I am concerned because Broberg’s fancies when he plays RHD are not good.
How many good teams have a left shot D play the right side in this league? I’d say quite a few. I don’t see a problem. I think his speed compensates.
There are some interesting potential in-season RHD additions on expiring contracts next year: Larsson, Neal Pionk, David Savard, Petry, WIlliam Borgen.
I think Jeff Jackson is probably working on it as we speak. Why wait for next year, do it now.
It’s cheaper now, deadline is the worst time
Larsson won’t come and has a no trade list we’ll surely make, Savard and Petry are done
Pionk and Borgen are interesting, but I bet they are resigned, Borgen for sure, unless they want to go UFA
I’m not sure that is true on Larsson.
Yes, he decided to move on for personal reasons and I believe a large part of that is his mom not being able to come back to Edmonton due to the pain.
Larsson has expressed gratitude to the Oilers’ organization and helped sell Arvidsson in coming to play for Edmonton.
I’d actually be surprised if he wasn’t willing to come play for the Oilers for a stretch run and playoffs – its a few months not a term commitment.
Maybe he would. He’d be a good partner for Bro, not sure what to make of his PuckIQ though