Sometimes a story takes time to land. A player can seemingly while away the years in the minors without ever resembling a recall and an NHL success. I’ve mentioned many times that the difference between the bottom 50 NHL players and top 50 AHL players isn’t large, and that luck plays a part in (say) Taylor Chorney playing in 166 NHL games and Phil Kemp playing in one. Chorney had draft pedigree, but Kemp was a famous player in college and international play. The big difference came in the quality of the NHL team. Chorney had a much easier time than Kemp because the Oilers are far better now. Damnable luck, but it isn’t over.
Kemp
Among Condors defensemen last season, Phil Kemp delivered the top even-strength goal share (58 percent) and has been strong in this area for years. I don’t have minutes or qual comp, and there isn’t a Connor McDavid to play against in the AHL, but based on all available math Phil Kemp can play.
I think he’s as capable of playing in the NHL as previous Oilers picks like Alex Henry (177), Chorney (166), Theo Peckham (160). I believe the Oilers current depth chart is one he can take advantage of this season. Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Cody Ceci, Josh Brown and Troy Stecher are all ahead of him, but an injury to any of the top three would open up opportunity.
Josh Brown’s Puck IQ player card from 2023-24 suggests he may not hold an NHL job all year.
He played over 600 NHL minutes a year ago and did not overperform in any category compared to the rest of the Arizona Coyotes defense. Edmonton signed him as a ruffian, but he is replacing VIncent Desharnais and that player could do more that Brown. There’s an opening here. Let’s look at Troy Stecher.
This is a much better player card and I do think Stecher is a far better defenseman. However, his style (like Brown’s) is very specific and coverage defensively (like Brown) is not a strength. Stecher is also a smaller defender. I’d like to see him spend some time with Darnell Nurse during preseason and if he gets it, Stecher could spike and become a big solution.
All of this to say that I think Phil Kemp is a better defender than either of Brown or Stecher. I think it would be foolish to suggest he’ll earn a roster spot in training camp, but do believe he’s closer to an NHL job than most believe at this time.
Pederson
I liked Pederson before he signed with the Oilers, and am small s surprised he didn’t see NHL action last season. Pederson delivered a 54 percent goal share at even strength with the Condors in 2023-24, and is a quality offensive center in the AHL. He scored 22-30-52 in 66 games last season, that included 11-17-28 on the PP, 2-1-3 on the PK and 9-12-21 at even strength. He was impressive and consistent and frankly earned a recall that did not come. He is a RH center, and was recalled this spring to be part of the taxi squad during the NHL playoffs. I think he has a chance to play with the Oilers next season.
Lavoie
I wrote about him twice on the weekend, the 20 prospects and 2019 draft review above. Suffice to say it’s been covered but I do think it is wise he signed the deal (NHL friendly) and it’s good the organization rewarded him for the AHL time he’ll spend in Bakersfield this winter. Lavoie has NHL talent, but needs some luck. For me, it doesn’t take a massive amount of creative writing to get him on Edmonton’s roster during the 2024-25 season. He’s big, strong and should hammer any opportunities made available due to his last chance Texaco status. Lavoie’s time to stand and deliver will be this coming season, and he can play either wing. Edmonton has wingers who are almost as old as Methuselah signed for the coming year. Almost guaranteed there will be opportunities.
The Lowdown hits the air at noon today, Sports 1440. We’re going to spend much of the early afternoon putting together the Oilers opening night roster. Some of the lines and pairings are obvious, but there’s room to mix and match, plus the possibility of (gasp!) three scoring lines! Stay tuned, and chime in! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I also like the move to swap next year’s first rounder to get into this year’s first round and grab Sam O’Reilly. I know nothing about him, but I think if things go as expected next season (fingers crossed) our first round pick would have been in the range of 28-32. So they get a guy they have identified and must like into the system a year earlier. I hope there isn’t much risk of next year’s pick being a lottery pick. If it is, we have much bigger problems to worry about.
Cap Friendly has finally gone dark.
R.I.P.
I feel like I did when Extra Skater went dark. That site was glorious.
Losing Cap Friendly is a huge loss.
Vic Ferrari, how could you do this to us?
I’m hoping Puck Pedia will become more user friendly.
Savoie, Lavoie, Philip floated as potential centers.
What about Holloway? He has played center as a pro in BAK.
He has more tools than the other candidates to be a good NHL center. Won 57% of his faceoffs in the NHL last year albeit only 47 draws.
Hopefully the Oilers get off to a good start this year so they have some latitude to experiment.
Lavoie is not a center – never played center as a pro and barely played it (at least after he was drafted) in the Q.
Holloway did play some center in the AHL but Chaulk said yesterday they moved him back to the wing because they thought he was much better on the wing. He could get some chances at center at the NHL level but I think the org likes him on the wing better (I do as well)>
Fair enough, but when healthy the Oilers are currently stacked at wing, and Holloway may not ever bring top six offence. Exploring his versatility could serve the Oilers well down the road.
I’d like to see it at the NHL level.
When are we going to talk about the elephant in the room?
That Nurse contract.
NHL_Sid on Twitter is already penciled him onto the bottom pairing for next season.
We haven’t heard much since those playoffs, but wow did he play poorly.
Years ago JP and I discussed my concerns on how Nurse might age when he had signed that contract.
I had brought up PK Subban and OEL as guys that really fell off the cliff hard as they aged.
Nurse is 29 and has six more years to run.
Subban is 35 and hasn’t played since he was 33. He was finished by the time he arrived in Jersey at 30 and probably a year or two before that.
OEL had a good playoffs on the bottom pairing at 31. He just turned 32 now. I’d have to look closer, but the days of him being a top-pairing d probably ended after he was 28.
Yup some us called it at the time.
when Father Time starts eroding his skills around 30, he doesn’t think the game well enough to remain a good player
He is not quite as mobile as he once was. He’s also lost his physical edge.
It’s easy to forget he used to fight guys like Lucic.
I think he really struggles with zone d. He used to thrive with the height, reach, and speed playing man-on-man d.
With zone d, he’s already poor at defending entries. In the zone, he gets lost puck watching. He doesn’t really box guys out, but he either screens the goalie or deflects a lot of pucks. He isn’t positionally sound. His outlet passing isn’t great.
During the playoffs, he seemed to defer to Ceci a lot for retrievals. I’m not sure how much of that is injury related.
I’m not sure how injured he was before but lets not forget that Nurse left a game early in the series and only played like 3 minutes. He essentially missed the entire game, in the playoffs – there is no chance Nurse doesn’t come back in a playoff game unless the injury was somewhat serious and highly likely to be something that did not fully heal over the course of the remainder of the playoffs.
I do not think that Nurse’s poor second half of the season, and worse playoffs, is related to age-regression at all.
Injury is related to age regression.
When? Pretty much every day since before the playoffs even finished.
Nurse has a NMC and is part of the leadership group, tight with the core and has a young family with roots in Edmonton.
I believe his on-ice game is respected much more by his team-mates (and coaches) than the fan-base.
He had a poor second half of the season and a terrible playoffs.
It was so far below his historical norms and established levels of play that I do think there were some mitigating circumstance and I look forward to a bounce-back season anchoring a strong 2nd pairing.
The mitigating factors are a less offensive, shut-down role with defensive zone face offs against second line competition that he could not handle.
Poor performance aggravated by deployment and ice mates at defense and forward with poor GF%.
If his deployment remains consistent he’s unlikely to improve.
Nurse Playoffs 5v5
20212022: OZS% 54.29, GF% 53.66
20222023: OZS% 49.15, GF% 47.62
20232024: OZS% 40.59, GF% 35.90
It is more a reflection of the decline in Ceci’s play, than the decline in Nurse’s play.
The difference between the first two years is much less deployment with McDavid in the second year.
The difference between the 2nd and 3rd year is Ceci fallinf off of a cliff.
It’s the 2024 playoff stats that are really bad, and non-coincidentally where Nurse faced more difficult starts.
Nurse and Ceci were -7. Nurse without Ceci was -6. Ceci without Nurse was +4. Ceci had a positive goal share without Nurse.
But is wasn’t just Nurse’s +/-. Most of his advanced stats and the Cult of Hockey counts 5v5 were also bad.
Nurse was a good contributor on the PK. As was Ceci.
You wrote a pithy description of Nurse’s play the other day which is probably the most accurate and succinct that I have ever read.
I was surprised not to hear much on the injury front.
Pretty much all I’ve heard is that Nurse needs to learn how to play zone defense and that was from Staples.
But yeah, I don’t even think action Jackson can move that contract.
Nurse (-13) 5v5 most common forwards goal +/- WITH in the playoffs: Kane (-5), Draisaitl (-1), McLeod (-6), Holloway (-1), Janmark (0), Foegele (-6).
McLeod & Foegele gone. Kane ?
The ‘Kane Watch’ has to be the most intriguing story of this off season.
The days of OEL being a top pairing defenseman ended when he had a serious knee injury.
This list just makes me realize how awesome 34 year old Ekholm has been.
It took multiple GMs to make the non call on Nurse
I could care less who he or anyone else are friends with. What an immature way to run a billion dollar operation in the world’s best league. Are the friends any less heart broken losing a Cup they should have won except for poor play from highly paid players and others that should have been moved on according to stats we see? What is the team looking at that they didn’t get right?
When folks try to whitewash Holland it makes me ill. This is an albatross horror contract signed after a covid weird season of isolation. Inflamed by an incorrect attitude towards the organization in terms of contracts, while also being the highest paid GM. Holland’s ‘work’ inflated the contract and now Nurse has a contract he probably hates like Luongo said he hated his bloated contract. Who can tell the difference between 6 and 9 million US in their life? If any player I was negotiating with said that it was about more money at that level, gone. I don’t think Nurse did that, but the point remains
Money is great but stress sucks. Now Nurse gets maximum stress as he can never meet his contract’s demands. He never could. Terrible player assessment. Campbell also crashed with a bloated contract. I hope the sentimentalism is finished. Play well at the right price or go, as a professionally run team in a capped league demands. The only players on the Oilers who should have any significant trade protection are Connor and Leon
It seems so far Jackson gets it
It’s not personal it’s reality. Proceed to downvote truth
Doesn’t get much more pretentious than this. “I’m right, everyone that doesn’t agree is wrong” or “I’m the smartest man in this room, in every room”.
Combine this with the insensitive comment on Philp and someone’s having a night.
FYI – you say, right after
“The only players on the Oilers who should have any significant trade protection are Connor and Leon:
That
“It seems so far Jackson gets it”
Note: Skinner has a NMC and Janmark a modified no-trade clause – signed by Jackson.
If I’m pretentious or SMITR, I will offer up that I am one of the few here that will respond and discuss things more in depth. Or put bigger sets of numbers up as a reference point of discussion. My opinions are strong for sure, so are yours
But you like to take jabs at me, and I make an effort to show you respect and not make things personal. I know I have been more personal towards you in the past, I changed my behavior because LT asked all of us to
As for the contracts you refer to, Skinner 1 year, Janmark 3 years at a low cap hit with a 10 team list. I don’t see these as legitimate comparisons
Also, please learn how to use quotation marks properly to refer to a specific thing someone wrote. The way you did that makes it look like I said those things. You have a university education you can do it
Agree with SS … this is how teams like Vegas or TB would frame it.
Notorious summed up Nurse’s situation … mo money, mo problems.
If Nurse doesn’t fix the issues that have plagued him which Daniel very astutely highlighted in his post, then he’s going to get run of town, and will be begging Jackson to ship him somewhere where the pressure to win and live up to that enormous contract is not as soul crushing.
I was enjoying the break from such talk, it was discussed daily during the playoffs.
Nurse is a plus skater. He’s fast and mobile. He had a nagging something in the playoffs. His fastest burst in the regular season was 72nd percentile. Playoffs was 51%.
In the playoffs last year his best burst was 86%. 21/22 when injured 50%.
PK Subban and OEL were smooth, but never fast skaters.
I think a healthy Nurse recovers nicely. His underlying stats in the playoffs were his worst by a mile compared to any other recent regular season or playoff runs.
The improved forward depth should help him as well. A good portion of the Oilers depth guys got crushed this year in the playoffs at 5v5.
Most of the worst offenders in Desharnais, Mcleod, and Foegele are gone. I think Ryan is also a healthy scratch come playoff time.
Personal opinion, anyone talking about Philip as the 4th line centre is not really thinking about how he just took a year off hockey. He may surprise and be great but I highly doubt he is ready at all for the NHL after taking a year off.
I was going to comment along those lines as well
He may not have the desire/mindset for what it is. He was in position to make the team and didn’t want to do it
Without actually knowing the context surrounding his personal leave of absence, we should probably avoid such commentary. Making up false narratives doesn’t help the player’s journey, nor is it a good look on part of the fanbase.
You clearly don’t know the personal issues that he was (is) dealing with. I was provided that information and, if you did know, I’m hopeful you would realize how insensitive a comment this is.
“Didn’t want to do it”
I think most (all) that think he has the chance to play in the NHL this year also have their head above the sand and think this will be a mid-season thing knowing it will take him time to get to where he was at the end of 2022/23.
LT, I’m not familiar with the song in your title but based on the name I’m going to guess Townes Van Zandt?
A lot of folks having a bit of a time coping with the fact that this team now has some luxury items.
This is what good teams do. Get used to it!
I would love to see Lavoie & Kemp get good looks at camp. From my recollection of his few NHL games,
Lavoie played feisty and went to the front of the net. He seems to know now what he needs to do. I also think Kemp fits the bill for 3RD. They have competition because the oilers have depth and that is a good thing. I also look forward to seeing Savoie Pederson and Philp battle it out for a chance at 4C. Philp seems to fit the bill for the 4C role and hopefully he can get back to where he was ASAP. I don’t expect Savoie to make it out of camp but hopefully he gets some significant reps over the season.
If I understand correctly Buffalo had Savoie primarily playing wing in the minors and Chaulk said last night that management has instructed him to play him as a centre.
To me that pretty much announces that they intend to have him spend at least the majority of the year in Bakersfield barring an extraordinary run of injuries in Edmonton.
Re Savoie = agreed.
It seems wise to marinate him in the AHL particularly since they seem to want him at C and he is traditionally W (OP post on the message to Chaulk and your post). There is no need to rush him b/c the team is well stocked in the top 9. I was a little surprised with the messaging to move him to C. After the trade, and assuming he develops to his reasonable expectation, I originally saw him as the Skinner / Arvidsson replacement.
I also thought he was the Skinner/Arvidsson replacement but easier to move him back to wing than the other way around I guess.
I think Kemp is battling with Josh Brown for 8D (presuming Stecher is healthy and good to go) and first call-up. Personally, I have no interest in Josh Brown being in the NHL lineup – everything I’ve read and heard about him lines up with the numbers – replacement level at best. Kemp may not be an NHL d-man but we don’t know that yet.
Stauff last night was discussing his prospect ranking and, well, doesn’t really feel Kemp is a real NHL prospect.
I do think that, if given equal opportunity, Lavoie MAY be able to “out-perform” Perry at camp but I don’t imagine they intend to waive Perry early in the season (and, of course, outplaying a vet in camp/exhibition doesn’t mean a prospect is better than for the regular season).
On Savoie, Chaulk told Staff yesterday that the org has already chatted to him about Savoie and essentially expressed that they want him at center. Savoie will impress at camp, no doubt, but I think they fully plan on having him start the season in the AHL.
Well, despite Stauffers assertions, I hope Kemp gets a good look at some point in the first 1/2 of the season. I believe Broberg has usurped Ceci as 2RD and 3.25M is too much to pay for 3 RD. I suspect we have seen Ceci’s last game as an Oiler. I would prefer Bro play his natural side. Depth in D is required. Maybe Stetcher can complement Nurse but Bro seemed to manage especially being thrown into the fire.
I’ll relax when they sign Broberg. I know offer sheets are rare but we are a target now.
Fair enough but we should note that we do talk about offer sheet risk pretty much every off-season and aside from the Habs/Canes offer sheet was (2019/21) the last sighed offer sheet was in 2013.
It really is all but a non-factor in today’s NHL.
All true that it is unlikely judging by history but would make perfect sense judged by reason given how tight to the cap the team is and how much they need Broberg this coming season. Not to mention how much they have invested to get him here.
And, of course, we only hear about offer sheets that are accepted. We really don’t know how often they are made.
This is the key.
I imagine many more offers are extended than are accepted.
One hopes Broberg has that top 4 opportunity square in his sights, but he may not be as amenable to a team friendly 2nd deal as McLeod was, for instance.
And he might prefer a team where the opportunity is on the left side.
Anyway, we wait, but as I said, from the perspective of logic this would be the off season to screw with the Oilers while potentially improving your own team so I will relax when they announce his new 2 year contract for reasonable dollars. 😇
It is possible Broberg may see a better hockey situation elsewhere, but there is lots to like about his current situation so I’m not sure.
And while I agree lots of teams would be happy to put the boots to the Oilers, I’d think last offseason with Bouchard and McLeod as RFAs would have been as much or more ‘the off season’ to screw the Oilers.
But yes, we do have to wait until the contract is in hand before we can be fully comfortable.
Lots of story lines this summer. So far, so good.
That is how they finished the season (Broberg at 2RD) but I’m not convinced the organization is convinced that Ceci has just been passed.
Sure, $3.25MM is too much for 3RD but so is $2.75MM and so was $4MM when Kris Russell played on the 3rd pairing at times and $1MM (apx) will be quite amazing for 2RD (if Brobeg plays in) and $3.9MM for elite 1RD as well.
I understand the concept and the need to shed some cap but struggle to see the organization taking the risk of going in tot he season with Stecher/Brown/Kemp competing for 3RD while having the risk of Broberg at 2RD.
Yup
not ideal. Some tough decisions.
I don’t think Ceci is going anywhere with our limited depth at RD. His salary is manageable and only runs for one more season. LD is where we have depth to move a guy (Broberg is ready and Ekholm/Kulak provide plenty of backup) and my choice would be Nurse for longterm cap reasons.
I think Nurse and Ryan for Ristolainen and Petersen gives us a big RD plus $1.25 million cap space this year if we send Petersen to the AHL (more if we can dump him in trade). Next year we would clear over $4 million in cap space if we can’t move Petersen this season.
Skinner McD Hyman
Kane Drai Arvidson
RNH Rico Brown
Janmark Holloway Perry
Ekholm Bouchard
Broberg Ristolainen
Kulak Ceci
Skinner/ Pickard
Kid line?
RNH McD Hyman
Kane Drai Skinner
Brown Henrique Arvidsson
Holloway Savoie Lavoie
Do you really think Savoie is a 4C?
Likely not, but with this forward depth it’s fun to come up with different combinations. The above line up is sitting some pretty good players out. And why can’t a 4th line have some offensive potential? Maybe they take advantage of opposition 4 th line grinders and actually score a few goals.
Maybe Holloway-Philp-Savoie/Lavoie. There will be plenty of options as usual.
As you can see, I’m big on Noah Philp in the 4C slot.
I see the idea, but my problems with this lineup are:
– Skinner, Brown and Lavoie are all slotted on their off side
– A line of Kane – Drai – Skinner has zero defensive conscience
– Janmark (right now) is a better player than either Savoie or Lavoie
– By most accounts Savoie hasn’t regularly played centre in awhile. If he’s going to play in the NHL this year, I imagine it’ll be at wing, but most likely he’s in the AHL for at least the first half of the season
If Kane doesn’t go on LTIR, then I’m interested in seeing what Kane – Henrique – Holloway could do. Lots of swagger with a mix of skill that I think could dominate the softer matchups.
I have a feeling Janmark – Pedersen/Ryan – Brown would be a strong fourth line
A couple of things on this:
1) Lavoie has played a ton of his off-wing and is more dynamic offensively on the left side (both shooting and driving the net).
2) I’m sure you are right at the NHL level but, for now, Chaulk said the organization wants him at center in the AHL.
I am in the “why do they sign Perry?” camp. He’s old, slow, and didn’t show well in the playoffs. Add to that he blocks some of the youngsters coming in, which, in an era where every cap dollar matters, matters. Isn’t there someone on an ELC that could do his job?
Connor and Leon don’t care if there’s a younger player on an ELC that can take Perry’s spot. They told Jeffrey Jackson to re-sign Perry and he obliged. Nothing more to it than that.
Ya think?
Agree. If they signed him for his influence on younger players and his hockey wisdom, why not offer him a job as an assistant? Seems like a waste of cap, was it a mistake by JJ or was he listening to someone?
Im convinced they signed Perry because of issues with Kane. Kane is not gonna play another game for oilers and they want a guy that can be a bit dirty.
They like Kanes physicality. But that’s about it.
Pretty sure his 24 goals were liked
I guess I didn’t make it clear. But what I wanted to convey is that I don’t think they want to incouage dirty play.
That would be a mistake. I don’t like it, but the league won’t protect it’s best, so by default sanctions it, and selectively and subjectively hands out token discipline. Kane taking out Slasha would have been perfect. Or the sociopath Bennett
The best deterrent is the distraction for the bad guys of getting hacked as much as they’re hacking, and you trying to take their best out as hard as they try to take yours. The next best thing is having a Messier who will guaranteed even the score, but they just don’t know when or how, or how bad
Same as it ever was
Let’s look at 5v5 G/60 for the top 12 TOI/GP forwards ranked in order of TOI with GF%
McD 4.38 / 61.22
Drai 3.63 / 60.80
Hyman 4.38 / 64.29
Kane 2.38 / 49.44
Nuge 3.27 / 56.73
Henrique 3.64 / 68
Foegele 2.78 / 51.09
McL 2.41 / 56.52
Perry 3.11 / 51.11
Holloway 1.86 / 48.15
Brown 1.28 / 41.03
Janmark 1.95 / 50
Same for playoffs
McD 3.87 / 66.67
Hyman 3.68 / 67.57
Drai 3.36 / 51.16
Kane 2.32 / 42.31
Nuge 3.54 / 50
Henrique 2.60 / 60
Holloway 2.97 / 58.33
McL .91 / 25
Foegele 2.38 / 34.62
Perry .95 / 33.33
Brown 1.61 / 50
Janmark 1.99 / 57.14
Change
McD -.51 / +5.45
Hyman +.05 / +6.77
Drai -.27 / -9.64
Kane -.06 / -7.13
Nuge +.27 / -6.73
Henrique -1.04 / -8
Holloway +1.11 / +10.18
McL -1.5 / -31.52
Foegele -.4 / -16.47
Perry -2.16 / -17.78
Brown +.33 / +8.97
Janmark +.04 / +7.14
I did this to see if Perry is as bad as is being said. Regular season he was productive but playoffs he fell off a cliff, the biggest drop in production, 2nd biggest drop in GF%. It will be interesting what happens this season. I expect as good a reg season as he won’t have the disruptions he had last season. Playoffs, who knows?
His most common 23/24 playoff linemates:
Perry Drai McLeod 37:55
Perry Foegele McLeod 35:46
Perry Kane McLeod 35:43
Perry Mcleod Holloway 20:01
Perry Ryan McLeod 19:21
Perry was played with all struggling players, and injured Drai. I’m not sure even Connor could have survived that. Outside of Drai only Holloway and Ryan have a clue in the O zone, and Ryan was not good most games (GF% 16.67 5v5), and Perry isn’t going to do well with players that don’t know how to play inside and to the net, or won’t, and can’t keep possession forcing him to skate back
We know McD Drai and Kane were injured. I said before I think Connor dragged the team as far as it got, a little drop in production, but still good and teams were focused on him system wise and trying to hurt him. He managed to increase his GF% doing this while hurt, crazy. Lead in 5v5 G/60, definitely a Conn Smythe performance. Hyman along for the ride being Connor’s most common linemate
Holloway knocked it out of the park, upped his game a ton. Jan and Brown too. Drai, Nuge, Kane, Henrique all dropped in GF% and only Nuge didn’t in production, that’s probably the loss right there, might have won despite the D problems if they had even stayed even in GF%. Many players drop some in production in playoffs
McLeod and Foegele collapsed. The dagger
I see Perry as 13F most of the season and sprinkled in when needed in the playoffs.
I don’t disagree but, if that is indeed the case, then the $375K over league min continues to be a “mistake” by Jackson in my opinion and the $150K bonus for 15 games (which he’ll likely play) more of a mistake (as the Oilers will likely incur an overage penalty for that).
Ugh, the worst part about Jeff Jackson is not knowing when he will strike next. It’s quieted down which I’m hoping means something else is coming soon.
It would kinda add to the legend if he made those 13 epic signings on July 1st, plus 2 beauty trades in the 8 days bookending it, then never did anything again.
I have never seen Lavoie as an NHL player. However, he may well be, and he certainly is a fine player and an Oilers asset. I think they get him through camp and a few games and try to turn this asset into something the team has greater need for.
He needs to be more of a two-way type. He won’t play in the top nine, his only niche to make the team is on the fourth line. He needs to adapt.
It sounds like he made really big strides in his play last year. When he was up last year, he had 13 hits in 7 games playing 7mins a night so I think he knows what he has to bring. He has a bullet of a shot so he might get an opportunity to be the 13/14F if he has a good camp.
Send out a high energy physical fourth line with speed. And the ability to wear down the opposition and score some goals. That’s (Holloway-Philp-Lavoie). As long as they are responsible defensively, how could they go wrong?
Someone must have seen something in Josh Brown beyond the terrible numbers. The 3 year term suggests that someone thinks he is going to get more expensive. I’m interested to see what his role is in camp.
Yes, great point. They invested at least a little into him.
Personally I think it comes down to being pissed that their star players took on so many injuries. Oilers are tired of this, they ran out of patience with McLeod.
They want to have some size and nasty available. I see another player type like this coming in as a forward.
They remember Josh Brown as a physical shutdown defenseman who was very effective against Connor McDavid in the Memorial cup. That is what he is and that is his role as an Oiler. Some of you are counting him out. But not this cowboy. I believe he will be a solid fit beside Brett Kulak.
Yeah, Brown has several seasons about 60% defensive zone starts which will really tank Corsi/Fenwick/Expected goals numbers but would also indicate that his coaches have seen something to suggest he’s strong defensively. Plus, the Oilers really do want/need a big mean player that can be an answer to the Zadorovs of the game.
Josh Brown has never played more than 28% of his TOI vs. elites, and only twice has he been above 25%.
I’m not positive his past coaches have seen him as that strong defensively,
The three year deal is to facilitate moving him between Edmonton and Bakersfield without worrying too much about waivers.
It is the wealthy owner advantage.
They are all wealthy. I would say it is the generous, committed to win no matter the cost owner advantage.
I would also suggest that waiver worries played only a bit part in signing Brown to a three year deal, regardless
Was there any specific reason why Carter Savoie wasn’t qualified? He did seem to stagnate, but it seemed like he might have been a draft “steal” where we got him. I do recall reading that maybe he wasn’t as dedicated as he needed to be to be a good pro. Maybe he didn’t take his fitness as seriously. I’m not sure, but I haven’t really heard why they showed him the door. Is it possible he comes back on an AHL contract, especially with his brother likely to be a Condor this season.
My recollection is he never really got on track due to injuries.
I think this is the Oilers doing the player a favour and letting him find his own deal because he was never going to get an opportunity with the Oilers. I think it makes sense to not have him remain blocked on the team while having his brother here because Matthew probably would not like how his brother was being handled by the team.
He was released prior to the trade so this is a bit revisionist in that I doubt the management put those parts together. Player didn’t produce enough over the ELC, new fresh opportunity. I agree it probably helps but in Savoie’s interview he just said he’s happy he’ll get a fresh opportunity elsewhere.
From accounts, the Savoie/McLeod deal talk started at the draft, before QOs were due so there was some talk of Matt S. joining the org while they still had Cater’s rights but I do agree that these two being brothers did not factor in.
The Oilers have an unofficial policy against employing siblings. It’s why they traded Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings back in 1988; they knew that Keith Gretzky would one day join the organization.
I agree with this.
From a high level, he’s competing with Perry for the 4th line right wing spot, right?
Truth be told, while Perry was OK in the regular season (in stretches) he was the most ineffective forward in the playoffs to my eye, often a liability, and i think that Lavoie could very well bring some positive impact.
I know that Lavoie on the 4th line doesn’t make sense, he “needs top 9 time”. I get it. At the same time, the 4th line should not be a black hole on this team – this team is deep and the 4th line can make an impact in possession and offensive zone time, etc., etc.
While i don’t think its a coincidence that Perry’s AAV is right at the amount that can be fully buried in the AHL with not cap hit leftover, I find it touch to see them waiving him out of camp for Lavoie.
Lavoie should also be competing for Derek Ryan’s spot – but that’s a center/PK spot so its tough to see that move.
Lavoie is in a tough spot it seems.
Perry will end up getting in the way this season. While I do believe in the value of team dynamics, intangibles, etc; it gets harder and harder to lead from the back.
Lavoie was drafted as a RHC, how has he been on the dot for BAK?
Is he a realistic right side option at the NHL level?
Yes, he plays both wings. He hasn’t played center at the pro level.
I don’t believe that they played him as a centre in the AHL. If they had, I think he would have gotten more than 7 games but it seems he’s been almost exclusively a winger in the AHL.
He has not played center at all in Bako and he barely played center in the Q. I recall him filling at center for Halifax for 4-5 games when they had a injury run but he’s a full time winger.
He’s better offensively as a LW but, for the role he will likely play in the NHL if he makes it (which isn’t a player that is going to be firing shots from his off-wing off the rush, he’s probably best suite to RW where he can be more comfortable on the defensive boards, etc.
Thanks OP. You are obviously more in tune with Bakersfield than I am. You say you commented a couple of times on why Carter Savoie wasn’t qualified. So far our Lavoie and Savoie hasn’t worked out. Fingers crossed for the younger will break that mold.
I thought Perry was fine in spurts. He won more board battles than the likes of Foegele or McLeod (who was allergic to contact), and was one of only two wingers (the other being Hyman) who would park himself in front of the net and take abuse there. he can’t bring that night in and night anymore, and there is no shame in that. It’s why he’s on a contract that can be buried in the minors.
He’s slow is the criticism that is always brought up … but he’s always been slow, and yet he has a HOF career despite that limitation.
His gamesmanship is off the charts, and that matters during a long regular season and especially during the playoffs.
Corey Perry in the twilight of his career is more of an NHLer than Lavoie has ever been.
I do think that Derek’s Ryan job is “up for grabs” and, while Ryan likely breaks camp in the NHL, I don’t think he can play nightly at this stage of his career. We saw him have quite a poor playoffs as his legs seemed to be giving out as the grind went on.
I do see Noah Philp as the clear “Ryan Replacement” – 6’3, right shot center who is a plus defensive player and has some real skill to go with it. Of course, he hasn’t played pro hockey in a full year and will very likely take some time. A year ago, he was close to a lock for NHL games, he finished the season at like 0.8 P/G over his last 40 games – he’s real.
Pederson is a more skilled player and likely the opinion early in the season. I liked his game last year, I just don’t see him as a stylistic fit as 4C.
Also, we lost McLeod and Foegele from the PK and, if Ryan is out of the lineup, well that’s 3 of the 6.
I presume they will get Holloway PK reps early but we’ll see how that goes. Probably Arvidsson as well. Philp, more than Pederson, is an NHL PK option going forward, right?
Noah Philp is the new and improved Derek Ryan with size & grittisity.
I think if Ryan gets replaced at centre (they seem to be looking hard for a 3/4 RHC) then he likely gets played on the wing. I also suspect they will do what they did last year and not play him in all of the games to manage his total ice time. I suspect we’ll see one more RHC get signed or a PTO before the beginning of the season if they can find a better option in the wild.
My hope is that Josh Brown plays zero NHL games on his new 3-year contract. He can play the Ryan Stanton role in Bako.
I think its clear that, presuming he’s healthy and ready to go, with the current roster, Stecher is 7D/4RD and Josh Brown is 8D.
For me, I have Kemp competing with Brown for 8D and I am very hopeful Kemp wins that call-up, when it comes. I think we know who Josh Brown is and, well, he’s not a player that we want in the NHL lineup – he’s Vinny’s replacement as far as size but I’m not sure he is a good defender or really an NHL player on a good team.
We don’t know that Kemp is, or can be, but we don’t know that he can’t, like we do Brown.
I’ve watched alot of Phil Kemp as a Condor and he’s a very smart defender, he’s not as physical or as nasty as Adam Larsson but he does play a truculent game and his defensive positioning is top notch. He’s a fine puck mover at the AHL level and with an under-rated shot. We don’t know if he will be able to move the puck with the speed of the NHL or if he can defend with his “improving mobility” but I do think he’s so smart that he can defend better than Josh Brown.
Hail Phil Kemp!
How’s Kemp’s mobility compared to the likes of Vinny or Niemelainen?
Quick pivots, edges are where Kemp has some issues (to my eye, and I’m far from an expert in this area) – I would say that he’s not as mobile as Vinny.
If he’s less mobile than Vinny there is no way he makes the show IMO
Agreed.
Well Josh Brown already has 290 NHL games. So, it’s fair to say you underestimate him.
Yup, 290 games of getting caved and scored on…..
As I said, we know what Josh Brown is – a replacement level NHL player at best. I haven’t read or heard anything that suggests he is more than that (and from “the experts” and those they cover Arizona, etc.).
You heard it from me. And if the Edmonton Oilers only consider him a useless replacement player they wouldn’t have signed him. Regardless of what you behoove.
Ryan Stanton role – sharing it with Connor Carick.
Get caved and scored, and mostly with poor teams. There’s a big difference playing 55 games for the Coyotes and playing for a serious Cup contender
I’m a longtime reader but infrequent poster. Was just curious about “last chance Texaco” as a description of a last chance for a prospect player. Reminds me of the dying Texaco gas station in Fort Sask. downtown I saw as a kid. Does “last chance Texaco” refer to the last gas station before heading somewhere remote or the last chance for a dying brand?
Keep up the great job on your blog. I’m sorry to hear about your tragedies and happy to hear about your triumphs just like with the Oilers.
Last Chance Texaco is a song by Rickie Lee Jones, a damn fine singer and artist. In the lyrics she talks about the Texaco as being the last stop before the long run through the desert (or at least that’s my impression). She talks about herself in vehicle terms (“her timing’s all wrong”) and the last chance in her song is love.
For me, I use the phrase to describe that period where things aren’t looking fab for a player who has had a full and proper audition. Lavoie is pulling in to the Last Chance Texaco now. He didn’t run out of a gas a few miles down the road, but he does need some luck and the Oilers are willing to have one more look under the hood.
As a group, the Oilers D last season was incredibly fortunate wrt injuries. The top-6 missed only 12 games total as a group. I do not know what the league average is, but would assume that given the physical toll, most d-men would miss more than 2 games.
Stecher and Brown do not move the needle – one is really small and other is slow, and as noted above, gets crushed by all opponents.
If / when an injury occurs on either side, it would behoove the team to see what Kemp can bring. For reference; last season with the Condors, Broberg was +11 and Kemp was +13. I know that +/- is not a great stat but it does show contribution when viewed over a large sample-size.
From what I’ve read Brown moves pretty well. I’ve wondered why they haven’t tried Kemp properly, maybe it’s a skating issue. They don’t need offense from him necessarily
If Brown moves well, why does he get crushed by Grintensity? Could be just the team he was on, but man those #s are not good.
The team for sure. Just like the Oilers D if the forwards don’t help it looks bad on D and G
Could be a processor issue at the NHL level
The Holland regime didn’t try Broberg properly. There wasn’t a chance in hell they would try Kemp.
New regime. I think Kemp will get a shot. The competition, Ceci, Brown, Stecher, all leaves much to be desired, and Kemp is actually best suited to the role of #3RD
Kulak & Kemp for third pair. Could work. There will be plenty of competition for that coveted spot beside Kulak.
Agree 100%. You have an advantage going into the season and I think it would be smart to see what Kemp can do if given the opportunity. He’s proven himself in Bakersfield.
I can’t see Rapheal Lavoie not being a better on ice option than a 40-year-old Cory Perry.
Likewise, I can’t see Noah Philp not being a better on ice option than Derek Ryan. Old as Methuselah you say. Well, I have to agree.
I don’t disagree but, at the same time, we don’t have certainty on what Lavoie is doing this summer and what type of game he’ll provide come the fall.
He fell back in to his inconsistencies last season.
He stared off the season bullying the AHL but, after his call-up and subsequent re-assignment, he did have a lengthy slump and he also had other long slumps during the season when he was not as much of a factor at 5 on 5 and was really just a PP shooter.
I agree on Philp subject to how this year away has effected him and how long it will take him to get back up to speed.
People have been thinking about Larsson, a player I liked as an Oiler quite a bit
Thing is if Brown has weak DFF%RC at -4.3, Larsson’s is -11.50. I think we need to aim higher. He was never that mobile or great at outletting and it looks to me like he’s declining
Defend the blue lines, move the puck is what the doctor is ordering for Nurse
Yes Lavoie has it right in front of him. Time to execute what they are asking him to in the A
The Oilers need an absolute bowling ball to play 4RW.
Hard on the forecheck and punishing opposing D. Cycle, drive the net, filth and nastiness.
Lavoie has the physical tools but he may not have the edge. Can he adapt?
Corey Perry can teach him.
He couldn’t ‘teach’ Highlander to do what needed to be done. Here’s hoping Lavoie has the killer mentality and will do anything to make the show with the Oil.
Nobody could teach MacLeod what needed to be done. That’s why he is a Saber now.
Lavoie has no choice if he wants to play for this Oiler team. He’s 6’4″ & 215 lbs. he has to play that way.
He’s supposed to be edgy. He will have to play both ends and be fit enough to skate hard for 60. Usually the issue when guys with size and talent can’t make the jump
Yesterday someone posted Chaulk took him off PK which he asked for because it affected his overall game. Sounds like an energy issue. Bear said he had to up his fitness after getting sent down after a couple of camps
That was me and that was directly from Chaulk during last season.
Can’t say with certainty it was a “fitness issue” but, well, if 2-4 extra minutes per game crater the overall game……
Lavoie had 13 hits in 7 games playing 7 mins a night. He knows that he has to play that role and seems willing to do so.
Unfortunately, most of those hits were “a split second too late” – Lavoie struggled with the pace of the NHL game. That’s not prohibitive though as long as he acknowledged, learned, took steps and improves in that area.