The Oilers traded Ryan McLeod this week, no complaints you have to give in order to get and Edmonton won the deal full stop. There’s a tendency to devalue an exiting player, suspect it’s human nature and we all do it to some degree. McLeod is a player I valued, and I would like to talk about him.
MCLEOD VERSUS ELITES, CAREER
This is McLeod versus elites for each of his four regular seasons. The sample size varies (we need 200+ minutes, all numbers five-on-five) so we can discuss only 2021-22 (203 minutes, barely qualifying) and this past season (296 minutes) as being bona fide.
The chart shows McLeod is growing as a player and is on his way to something good. Now, his cap hit is headed north too, and for the Oilers actually paying role players bigger money is unwise with the current roster construction. We can see what is possible (in a downbeat way) by reviewing the careers of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto. Call it the “Sam Gagner Dilemma” but when young players arrive early, even modest salary increases make them overpriced by early 20’s.
McLeod didn’t hit the NHL until 20, but his current deal ($2.1 million) will rise next summer when he’s an RFA. McLeod did not have a great playoff run, and it was 283 minutes five-on-five so the smart folks say we can trust the results. McLeod’s goal share five-on-five (4-12, 25 percent) is wildly out of line with his expected goal share (49 percent) so there’s a story to tell. However, with Adam Henrique, Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson signed, and Dylan Holloway now an NHL player, you can see why McLeod (and Warren Foegele) were expendable.
McLeod brought blazing speed, the ability to transport the puck, some offense and two-way acumen to the rink. He is also the Oilers top second-round selection since Jeff Petry in 2006. His lack of physicality and ineffective postseason are things he’ll be remembered for, but I would respectfully submit he brought good things as well.
As is the case with most players, McLeod had strengths and weaknesses, the Oilers moved on. I think the most impressive thing about McLeod today, this moment, is the enormous return the Oilers managed in dealing him. Full credit to management, that was a helluva trade.
The things McLeod brings made him valuable enough to make the move. The Buffalo Sabres clearly like him. I enjoyed watching him in Bakersfield and in Edmonton. Sail on, Oakville Blade, you are fast as lightning and have a great future. I’ll be cheering for you.
On the Lowdown today, Sports 1440 noon to 2pm, we’ll talk to Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal about McLeod, and about Matthew Savoie. We’ll chat Jays (lost in dramatic fashion last night), Elks (my goodness the team needs a win) and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: What’s new Edmonton Oilers top prospect Matt Savoie’s NHL ETA?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5626735/2024/07/10/oilers-matt-savoie-trade-nhl/
Besides Schwartz, the Oilers own Victor Arvidsson seems like a good comparison for Savoie style wise.
Here’s hoping Matt smashes the AHL this year and forces a mid-season call up so instead of unicorn 3 line scoring heading into the playoffs, the Oilers will have Pegasus depth.
Arvidsson is a good comparable. The issue is that Victor has never played a full season. Small guys get hurt more than big guys it seems.
I see Savoie as the Skinner replacement for next year. Move Hyman to the left side and go with this for the top two lines:
Hyman – 97 – Savoie
RNH – 29 – Arvidsson
The skill is great, but man is that a small top 6.
Ya not my style. Reg season they’d kill it though
I think Connor needs a disruptor on his line. Hyman isn’t quite it, he’s not mean enough. Gretz had Tikk to cause mayhem and it distracted the other team from focusing completely on Gretz and Kurri
Kane could be if he stays and isn’t broken, he can still score and hits and people don’t want to get hit by him
Yes he needs someone to take the heat off of him. I’ve been calling for a pest that can play top 6 for 20 fricking years. Torres was bottom 6 and a little to nasty. Esa was great and fit the role perfect but my favourite was Kenny the Rat Linseman. It’s too bad he didn’t hang around longer but Sather received excellent value for him.
McDavid, Hyman and RNH are all 6’1″ and Draisaitl is 6’2″ and Arvidsson is fearless. I think too many people have an idea in their head that only 6’4″ players can survive the playoffs when the reality is we just watched a cup final with a bunch of players in both top-sixes that aren’t huge.
Arvidsson an absolute bulldog. Size does not stop him. Only concern is injury history.
I would prefer Connor and Leon focus on avoiding the attempts to injure them and other players do the hitting. They are too mission critical to add extra risk with. Leon has faded out of helping enough in later rounds twice now
It can be done for example hits and hits taken these playoffs
Connor 43/62
Hyman 53/71
Drai 23/68
Nuge 43/34
Henrique 52/19
Henrique was pulling his weight but isn’t getting hit back much. It would seem Nuge being a smaller guy is protecting himself more than Connor. I realize Connor has the puck more and is ‘the’ target, but still
I think it’s knowing how to do it. Connor was 5th in hits, I prefer him well down that list. With his brain hands and feet he doesn’t need to play that way. He should watch video of Slasha and learn that art instead. Or not if he’s too classy for that
During the regular season, to my eye, McDavid generally initiates contact in puck retrieval battles (and he’s very good at it). Yes, I cringe every time he leads with his shoulder but, well, he’d be a lesser player if he took that out of his repertoire considering how many of those battles he wins, no?
To me you want to think big picture. Playoffs. I think he goes into hits awkwardly a lot, sometimes almost back first probably because he wasn’t a hitter before and doesn’t really know how to do it. It doesn’t look like when the guys who normally check do it to me
I don’t think he should not use his body, just not try to hit guys. Or save it for the right moment in playoffs. I’ve seen him slam into the boards half catching guys (often back first) which seems to happen a lot these days, that half check and nail the boards mostly. The risk outweighs any reward to me, other players and players with a bigger build should take care of that
I think the better he feels the better he will play. I also think he should try to get hit less. He often doesn’t avoid hits and he can and should. Wayne did which helped him play 20 years, and it also frustrated the other guys a lot. Turns into another thing to get guys off their games
Connor sometimes puck watches and gets caught. He and Leon have proven they aren’t soft, time to take a self preservation tack. They are both also getting older, Leon has been inured out of being effective later rounds twice now, time to preserve the future as much as possible. One big hit can change careers, or end them
Connor and Leon are 100% more physical than they should be and at the same time they have no other choice. I agree a sprinkling of Tikanens or Claude Lemieuxs would help, but I don’t know where you find those guys or how you fit them in.
By this theory, Mark Messier should have dialled back on the physicality & let someone else handle it.
Or perhaps no more half measures. Leon get those elbows UP!
When I think of it If Connor was nastier he would be considered power forward.
I disagree that someone else on the top two lines has to be the designated hitter.
Just how greasy Connor can be is truly underrated. Leon can take care of himself; his propensity for pushback already gains him some space/respect until things get really tight. They’re already smart enough to not go walkabout looking for the big hit. If they shy away from contact the opposition will adjust and they’ll have less time and space to wheel and deal.
Connor and Leon Messier’s size or bigger, if not as ornery.
They need more skilled wingers who have enough jam to keep the other team honest, and the gumption to go to the hard areas and gain possession. Maybe that’s Holloway and Arvidsson, we’ll see.
possibly maybe Zach Hyman?
Big fan of what he brings. It’s more than playing a rugged game, though. To me his timing, sense of the moment in the game, is impeccable.
Need a big hit to change the momentum or send a message? Lays out Doughty clean, without taking himself out of the play. Need a clutch goal? Put me in, coach!
Hoping Arvy can be for Leon what Hyman has been for Connor.
A friend of mine’s son was playing on the same travel team as Kopitar’s son this spring. While they were having beers and watching Oilers playoff games Kopitar said to him “Leon is my buddy but he is the sneakiest dirty player in the league”
Oilers made the run because of talent. They lost because of physicality.
I think they lost because of defensive discipline. Two glaring errors in game 7 ended up in the net.
And defense quality. Pretty hard to win with mostly 3 then 4 functioning D
And secondary scoring. Paul Maurice has a system for minimizing the effectiveness of The Glimmers, and I credit both it and goaleuring for FLA taking game one and, subsequently, the series.
They lost two years in a row because Ceci “sucks”. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on you.
After the loss to Vegas, to run it back with Ceci was an inexcusable blunder.
They lost to Florida Panthers in the SCF. Remind me how Ceci sucking turned the series,
I hate to say it Bruce, but in the back of my mind, I ask myself, “Did Brett Kulak cost the Oilers a Stanley cup?
He was playing effectively with Nurse on the second pair against Dallas, but apparently complained to the coach about having to play his off wing. For the start of Florida series, Knoblauch apparently went back to the Nurse Ceci pairing to appease him.
The Oilers lost game one because of the Nurse Ceci reunion, no? This was a game they vastly outplayed Florida, but two key errors with this pairing led to 2 goals against changed the game.
Ceci had an inspired pass to set up the EDM goal in game seven, but was clearly a primary culprit on a crucial goal against. Ceci can be a productive player in the aggregate, who also makes conspicuous mistakes at key moments. Both things can be true at the same time.
To me, it’s not that Ceci is the worst player ever; more like we can do better.
Did Ceci suck as it relates to his $3.25MM cap hit as much as Nurse sucked as it relates to his $9.25MM cap hit?
Before you respond, no, Nurse didn’t just suck because of Ceci – that’s a narrative and you know it.
Even if Nurse’s poor showing was totally due to Ceci, well, a $9.25MM player should be able to do enough so he’s not totally cratered by another.
I’m one of Nurse’s defenders but, for me, his play so far below historical norms was a primary reason the Oilers didn’t win the cup. I’m also very confident there were mitigating circumstances and I expect him to be a fantastic 2nd pairing anchor next season (when he’s not playing with Bouch, I could see some real Nurse/Bouch time).
1) If Nurse was near historical norms, Oilers win the cup.
2) If Drai wasn’t so hurt he could barely play, Oilers win the cup
3) If the high end Oilers could finish their chances in games 1 and/or 3, the Oilers win the cup
They lost in Game 7 because the Coach went Hero mode and decided to over play the crap out of McD-Drai-Hyman and trust nobody else.
Same as it ever was.
The very physical Matt Tkachuk had 1 goal 2 assists and was a -5 in the finals. 5’11” Evan Rodrigues was 4-3-7 and +6. The Oilers dominated more of the games they just had bad luck and bad ice conditions.
Pencilling in the new shiny toy, he of *checks notes: one NHL game, as 1RW in a year’s time is classic DoD era fan fiction.
Hell, EDM even did it recently with Ty Rattie.
Here’s hoping the organization has matured significantly over that short timespan.
We are so overdue for a young kid to seamlessly step into the NHL and climb like NVIDIA stock. Maybe Sather when he retired gave some pixie dust he had saved from the early eighties to Coffey who handed it off to Action Jackson. This Savoie kid may come back to haunt Adams fast if he traded the wrong smaller sized skilled player.
Leon and Celeste are now engaged.
Wonder if they should have waited or the new GM to finalize…?
If you don’t love him at 8.5 you can’t have him at 12+
Ryan McLeod is a good player but his 3C spot was taken by Rico in the playoffs. That will continue next season. His 2LW spot has been taken by Skinner. So the only place for him would have been 4C and his salary is way too high for that.
You also need to look at the 3rd line as a whole which is going to come back as Holloway-Rico-Brown or Janmark-Rico-Brown. That is way better than anything we iced last year with McLeod at center.
Add a #6 overall pick who is doing well and this is a net positive deal for the team even though McLeod was a fine player (got to give to get).
Absolute best hockey smile – Ryan McLeod
Out of nowhere I find myself thinking, “will something good come from a Nurse/Stetcher pairing during training camp?”
Hard to overestimate what that would mean in terms of positives for the team.
This is quite delusional. Ceci, Brown, and Stecher are merely bodies to make sure the OIlers make it to the trade deadline.
If any of them are playing a major role in May, it will be anothe sad June.
Maybe Brown will surprise me, and be able to be an effective 3RD and PK’er…but I sort of doubt it.
Kemp is probably the best best of the four.
Stecher is 7D (presuming he is healthy). Brown is 8D, hopefully never seeing the NHL ice and hopefully being passed by Kemp due to Kemp taking one more step.
I think we could see some:
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Just reaching for straws here. As painful as it is for the Oilers to lose in Game 7 after clawing their way back, one positive is that if they’re ever up 3-0 in games in a playoff series, they’ll know not to take their foot off the gas.
With respect to all the talk about McLeod not developing a more physical game despite multiple coaches, etc., I would suggest that he has had some stretches where he did up his physicality and would note the current coach likely is a factor in what we saw this season.
Knobber clearly does not put a premium on physical play. He was asked about if routinely in the playoffs and he was always clear that, while hitting was all good and nice, the key was to not put oneself out of position and they liked checking with their feet and their sticks.
If that was the message to the team, can one blame McLeod for not developing a more physical game this past season/playoffs?
I agree, but there are different levels. If you are getting pushed out of battles you have to push back. Don’t look for hits and be out of position. Shoulder checks on the boards are very effective at stopping cycles and break outs by delaying the opponent. You don’t have to crush them though, just slow them while keeping your momentum, it takes them out of the play
Not every player is good at it though. And some aren’t good with their sticks
Im pretty certain Oilers wanted to move him and we know why. McLeods speed got him NHL work and he used it well. He didn’t make the NHL from hitting, he’s just not going to be that good at it, which is okay. He might lose more dollars to injury focusing on the wrong thing, rather than earn more dollars playing his strengths.
Checking with sticks and fast feet is fine – if you do it with intensity and win.
Kane hits to hurt, he doesn’t care where the puck is. Hyman hits to separate man from puck, he always knows where the puck is. Larson hit hard, but not at all interested in chirps, facewash, or scrum, simply his job. Guy was a robot.
McLeod did play bigger, and I remember some games you were referring to. In hockey, its usually because those around you are playing bigger. One always walks a step higher when you know you have the back up, when you know those around you will answer the bell. Its human nature. Its like knowing you have the best goalie. This is why its important to balance the team with some no nonsense players. It is rare to find those that can also skate and contribute. I liked Klim Kostin. Most folks I think missed what he actually brought to the team.
I liked that McLeod got the Sail on post today.
.
There is that.
Doesn’t matter who’s on the roster, a Slats-coached team ‘hits different.’
The clocklike nature of his inconsistency, or being streaky, is one of the primary reasons he was a candidate for a trade up by the organization. That was a particular trait that hadn’t changed, since his draft era scouting reports.
He was trending for a higher AAV due to age, but was unlikely to provide value on a regular basis at that higher tier. If he was going to extend for (say) 5+ years at his current AAV, that’s a different story.
Oilers are over the cap by apx $350K with 21 players.
As for the cap, there is a VERY easy way to get compliant without any material dispositions or LTIR.
That apx $350K over is with 21 players and included are Josh Brown and Derek Ryan.
Both those players can be waived and assigned and their the new contracts for Holloway and Broberg right around the same aggregate cap hit.
Perry down and Lavoie up saves $375K on the cap.
There is your cap compliance without any more moves.
IF Kane is slatted for LTIR, you STILL do the moves I referenced as that takes you to an opening night roster just below the gap, then you LTIR Kane and it maxes the LTIR reserves and overage for the team.
One nuance is is the team will be in LTIR most of the year, they will want Savoie on the roster at the time they enter LTIR so they can account for his performance bonuses. If he’s not on the roster at the time they enter LTIR and they recall him, his cap hit will be the $1.9MM, not $900K
While I’d be loath to trade any of Kulak, Kane, or Ceci (who has his merits many aren’t quick to acknowledge), the team is one trade away from having room to wheel and better balance the roster.
My hope is JJ is able to sign both Holloway and Broberg for 1-2 years at $1MM each, show me deals, and move a veteran or two for a clear upgrade at RD.
1 year at that price. 2 is a pipe dream.
Agreed.
And to be fair, I don’t really want to kick the can too far down the road on bridge deals.
These guys are about to show us who they are; locking them into max term, team friendly deals is the best possible path forward.
Alex M. officially out as the owner of the Coyotes. Remember, that franchise still existing under that name with the incumbent owner and I believe there was some sort of agreement to return to Arizona under certain conditions (related, primarily to arena, etc.).
Arizona cancelling the land auction a few weeks ago (I believe solely to ensure Alex M. didn’t get the land, lol) was the final nail as far as I know.
Yeah, he retained the rights to getting the team back if he could get an arena built but I think he figured out that the government was working against him and gave in.
The loss of Ryan McLeod will be felt in the lineup and I think the impact will be more than most expect.
I know, I know, there were lots of fly-bys in the playoffs, he wasn’t finishing checks and not engating in the guts of the game as much as most of us wanted. This is true and even I got frustrated with some of the “lost opportunity” to get a bang in.
At the same time, I do think the souring vibes on McLeod due to this are exaggerated and this “perceived flaw” in his game should not derogate completely from what the player did bring as an Oiler.
2024 playoffs aside, Ryan McLeod consistently helped drive positive goal share playing away from both McDavid and Drai and did so as a center with “meh” linemates against increasingly difficult comp.
There are very few Oiler forwards over the years with a positive goal share away from 97/29. Yes, this was generally due to low GAs as opposed to scoring but positive goal share away from 97/29 is positive goal share, right?
McLeod did struggle in the 2024 playoffs, no doubt, but his history of results in the NHL away from the top end players are real and the Oilers will feel this – plus the PK.
The trade made perfect sense and there was no way not to jump on that trade given the ceiling of the prospect and the depth of the Oilers’ forward group right now but the loss of McLeod will be felt.
No doubt the Highlander had a lot of attributes. His playoff performance was a bit similar to Eberle’s last playoff games here where he disappeared. The playoffs are twice as physical as the regular season and non physical players often don’t fare well. Having said that. a bit sad to see him go but excited about the potential of Savoie.
Eberle has been fine in the playoffs.
Scoring at a 20 goal 50 point pace over his career.
Beware of small sample sizes with an incompetent coach in a dysfunctional organization.
FWIW Eberle is a poster boy for not overreacting to playoff performance.
Since he disappeared in those 2017 playoffs, he’s been a better scorer in the playoffs than in the regular season.
The Pk will suffer with the loss of McLeod, Foegele for sure.
I also would expect Ryan to not play every night.
I presume they will try and get Holloway up and running on the PK early – that should help supplement his minutes when he’s in the bottom six.
I think Arvidsson killed in Nashville (not in LA though) and he’ll probably get reps.
At the end of the day, the replacements need to buy in to Stuart’s system and be “smart enough” to play it – far from an expert but, in addition to up-ice and zone entry pressure its alot of “reads” and making the snap decision on when to press on a bobble or a player on their back-hand, etc. I think Arvidsson is a quick and smart enough player that he should be able to excel in that PK system.
Much of that time with Warren Foegele!
I kid, I kid… mostly.
Losing those two, and less time with the clinical Derek Ryan will surely have an impact. But those who are on the roster going forward should be able to take up the slack by committee.
I would wager the gap between Henrique and McLeod is smaller than one might think. Speed being the greatest delta, IMO more than made up for by the increase in skill, experience, and IQ.
McLeod 6’3 188lbs 2.1M
playoffs
hits 27/44
points 4G
GF% 33.33
O zone starts 78 D zone starts 89
Giveaways 9 takeaways 16
reg season 81GP
hits 61/104
points 12G 18A
GF% 53.85
O zone starts 305 D zone starts 317
Giveaways 48 takeaways 66
Henrique 6’0 194lbs 3.0M
playoffs
hits 52/19
points 4G/3A
GF% 55.56
O zone starts 64 D zone starts 104
Giveaways 6 takeaways 7
TOI 239
reg season 82GP
hits 91/61
points 24G 27A
GF% Ducks 52.14 Oilers 56.67
O zone starts 462 D zone starts 581
Giveaways 18 takeaways 30
TOI 1370
Their reg season stats are closer, Mcleod higher event with more giveaways/takeaways. Playoffs the coaches trusted and used Henrique more defensively and he was more productive even with a higher D zone start ratio
Playoffs Henrique at McLeod’s lunch. The only drawback is age, but for 900K more that’s a much more productive physical player that kept his game up in the playoffs and the coaches trusted defensively more. Certainly him signing at that sealed the Highlander’s fate
McLeod TOI
Reg 1153
Playoffs 316
That’s how I see it too.
Henrique is the 3C upgrade we’ve been waiting for since the start of the McDavid era.
Drafting JEE/Carlo would have been the best option, but failing that, upgrading a maturing 40OV LHC due for an unsustainable raise into a recent 9OV RHC isn’t a bad play either.
The way the team is constructed, Savoie has time to develop without much pressure.
This is where I fall on the trade as well. McLeod is still young and no doubt last playoffs was an eye opener on things he has to work on to get better. I could see him continuing to improve in terms of positioning and compete level – if he does then his current contract will be an absolute steal.
There’s also the fact that what he brings – puck possession, controlled zone exits, etc – are not valued as highly as gaudy scoring numbers. There is every chance that his next contract will also be a value one for Buffalo considering he can play up and down the lineup
McLeod did not have a positive goal share 5v5 in any of his four playoff runs.
’21-‘22 to ‘23-‘24 5v5 regular season McLeod without 97 & 29: 67GA, 63 GF.
Unrelated question but why did the Capitals buy Capfriendly? Did they hire the people who ran it or something?
They did.
The Capitals bought CapFriendly because they are trying to avoid having their fans see how bad the PLD contract is.
Puckpedia next
Can’t forget the Tom Wilson contract, too!
Tom and PLD together combined for 75 point last season and make a combined salary of $15 million. And their contracts both have 6 years left on them.
The answer is that they used it as their cap management tool and feared that another team would buy it and they would lose access to it.
If we’re looking at undersized CHL forwards (below 6 feet, below 185-ish pounds) drafted somewhere between 5 and 20-ish overall over the last decade and a half drafts, there’s a surprisingly limited number of comparables. I think this speaks to the potential range that Savoie could have. There’s not as many busts as you would think.
Busts: Z. Boychuk, S. Baertschi, maybe R. Suzuki
Concerns (might not cover a McLeod/Tullio bet): K. Yamamoto, R. Fabbri, P. Krebs
Too soon to tell: H. Lapierre, B. Yager, M. Rossi, Z. Benson (but has a very promising outlook), C. Perfetti
McLeod-ish value: P. Tomasino, C. McMichael, T. Ennis
Promising: D. Mercer
Great value: S. Jarvis, T. Konecny, J. Skinner, J. Schwartz
Forsberg/Erat level value: R. Thomas, N. Ehlers, M. Barzal
Clayton Kellerage25
posRW
shotl
h5’10”
w179lbs
BirthdateJul 29, 1998
Draft Class 2016 round1 pick7
Absolutely, strong comp. I chose to avoid non-CHL players just as a filter but definitely could have included American players. Even though Keller played for the Spitfires, I think he was drafted out of the USNTP.
Been trying to remember all week:
Who was that kid from the Giants who wore the Oil drop a season or two during the DoD? Left the game due to concussion and mental health issues if I recall.
Gilbert Brule drafted 6th overall by Columbus
#5 to #14 (or thereabouts) might be more fair for Savoie drafted #9?
4 slots earlier, and 5 later, than Savoie was drafted. Fair?
2023
Zach Benson has had a nice start to his career.
2022
Matthew Savoie, TBD.
2020
Marco Rossi just had a decent (82 21-19-40) year.
Seth Jarvis. Quality.
2016
Tyson Jost. He’s over 450 games now but very meh for a #10 pick.
2014
Nick Ehlers. I’d been restricting to under 6 feet, but Ehlers is listed at 6, 172. So small, and pretty successful.
2011
Sven Baertchi could qualify, but he’s 20 lbs heavier than Ehlers (and 5′,11″).
2010
Jeff Skinner, but he’s listed at 200 lbs now, so I dunno.
Alex Burmistrov (listed at 6′,187″) should probably be included. Fail.
Jaden Schwartz. Pretty successful.
That’s 15 drafts, but we could continue:
2009
Nazem Kadri. Pretty solid.
2008
Cody Hodgson. Poor.
Tyler Ennis was also picked in 2008, but 26th.
Jordan Eberle. Gotta include him (22nd in 2008) if we’re including Ennis.
Still, Eberle and Ennis (and many others you listed) were drafted 10-20 slots after Savoie was.
Not sure if/how this list of players changes things, but I think it might be closer to a set of true Savoie comparables.
FWIW, there were zero or one CHL forwards chosen between 5-14 many years, so the modest number of players that show in a search like this isn’t only because of they were small.
That’s a very good record. 6/9 in the last 15 drafts. 9/13 going back to 2008, and Hodgson seemed to fail due to injury issues (interesting story about him coming back for half a season this year after six years away).
NHL Rosters
@NHL_Rosters
Excited for what’s next after running the @CF_DepthCharts
account and managing the @CapFriendly
depth charts for the last six years.
A new home has been found and a re-launch of the content will come this offseason.
Any help spreading the word would be appreciated.
Thanks!
And who is, pray tell, this statistical mensch?
Or is that not within the public domain?
Former depth charts manager with at CapFriendly.
According to his twitter links.
For sure, I was looking for a name to pair with a moniker… so to speak.
This is on CapFriendly’s goodbye message. Is this what you were looking for?
Tim Hiebert (Depth Charts)
Had my fill of soccer for a few years after watching this De Paul fella flop around the field like a fish out of water. Bring on the hockey season.
The Argentinians were diving like they were Florida Panthers.
I am VERY pleased with the Oilers off-season as it looks like the Oilers have improved the team from the roster from the playoffs.
Anecdotally, I think most cup contending teams often start the next season with a “decreased roster” from the one that ended the prior season due to cap reasons. Its so hard for teams at/near the cap to keep the final team together as, generally, that final team has impact players they acquired that only counted on their cap for part of the season, etc.
The Oilers 2023/24 opening night roster we “down” from the team that finished the playoffs in 2023.
I would say that the Florida Panthers are a “decreased team” from the team that won the cup.
The Oilers, in my opinion, somehow were able to keep most of their impact players, add some players AND add a high end prospect and other very good prospect.
At the same time, has the opening night on-ice team improved THAT much from the final playoff team?
At the end of the day:
Skinner, Arvidsson and Brown in for Foegele, McLeod and Deharnais and the Oilers still need to make a move for a player off the roster, be it Kane or Ceci or something else, right.
Don’t get me wrong, I think they are improved because of the fits of Skinner and Arvidsson but its not clear and dry as I think the verabal is.
Losing the speed and PK abilities of both Foegele and McLeod will be a loss. I do think Skinner and Arvidsson are upgrades overall but there are certain aspects of the game where this WILL hurt, right?
At that end of the day, Jeff Jackson did yeoman’s work to even “bring the team back” let alone improve the team AND add to the high end of the prospect pool. Wonderful work.
The Oiler did improve vis-a-vis the rest of the league (the top of which generally are not a “good” as the end of their past seasons).
Pretty difficult to argue that Nashville isn’t much improved after adding Stamkos, Marchessault and Skei.
They’ll have a few good seasons
They’re in a very interesting spot with $11.8 million dead cap this season and $8.8 million next season.
That drops to $3.5 million the following season just in time to start replacing grey beards.
The chances are better they are buying out some greybeards
Other than Saros…they don’t have another contract that extends beyond 4 years.
The Predators weren’t a cup-contending team though. They didn’t “load up” for the playoffs, they sold some players off. The also-ran teams should get better over the off-season from their final roster whereas the teams that did load up for a playoff run should have an opening roster that is not quite as good as their last season’s ending roster.
You could argue Vegas loaded up for a cup run but was sewered thanks to injury.
All of Mark Stone, Thomas Hertl, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo, Zack Whitecloud and Nick Roy missed considerable time last season.
Since they all have the offseason to get back to health plus the addition of Noah Hanifin would seem to indicate they will be much stronger next season.
Ray Ferraro was on air yesterday suggesting Vancouver will also be significantly better next season.
His rationale was that Petersson will be recovered from a nagging knee injury and the addition of Jake Debrusk on his wing will see him return to franchise player status.
He also sees the addition of Danton Heinen and Kiefer Sherwood as significant additions since they as well as Debrusk are all very fast and hard to play against.
And, of course, a healthy Thatcher Demko will make a big difference.
That doesn’t have anything to do with the substance of my post.
Nashville was a wild card team that lost in the first round.
My post speaks to cup contending teams generally not being able to keep their playoff roster for the beginning of the following season, let alone improving on it.
Nashville finished with 5 fewer points than the Oilers last season despite scoring 30 fewer goals.
It is hardly a stretch to think that adding two 40 goals scorers and a 37 point puck moving defenseman (he scored more than Brent Burns) will produce much better results.
I believe you also said it was hardly a stretch that PLD and Fiala would both put up 70 points last year on the Kings and Brandt Clarke would be anchoring the 2nd line.
That has nothing to do with his original post though. Nashville should get better because they were not a cup contender and actually sold off assets at the deadline.
Big surprise, HH has added Nashville to his list of favorite teams to be scared of.
Tavares certainly worked out really well for Toronto. We will see how Tavares x two does. Toronto also did Marleau.
Who was talking about Nashville?
A key thing for next season is just how much the Comp has lost in the Pacific and the Central as well.
Vegas and L.A. are without a shred of doubt, less deep, less offensively perky and worse defensively than the three previous seasons. Vegas is going to need a very healthy season to keep a playoff spot.
Rob Blake is my favorite GM in the NHL. Honestly, its hard to do what he’s done.
For the Nucks I think you can say at best they ran in place forward wise. But the current group is less defensively astute than last years post Jan 1, 2024. I think Jake DeBrusk was part of a similar system in Boston, but the forwards in Vancouver aren’t as good at it as Boston, and neither are the defense. Demko flattered the Tocchet System and they’ll need him and his shakey groin/knee if they plan to fight for the top. They are way slower on the backend, their guys will tire more over a full season and the bottom two pairings are going to be in tough to move the puck to their forwards.
Seattle is a confusing roster. I didn’t think much of them last year. I don’t think much of them this year. I think its risky to place situationally successful players front and center on a very different roster. But when that’s what your entire roster is made of maybe its not the worst idea? They have another season of Bubble before the age curve truly slams them. Way too many guys on the wrong side.
I see the Battle for 3rd as set between SEA, VEG and LAK. VEG is the front runner but they need to stay healthy.
San Jose is better yes but that’s not saying much. Anaheim has done nothing and with aging are likely to get worse. The Flames are worse, there is no cavalry coming and whichever prospects they do pick up will be with less than stellar cover. It could get very messy in CowTown the next few seasons.
If we zoom out to the rest of the West the story isn’t much different and decidedly in our favor.
Nashville is improved. Well, maybe, maybe not. I’m curious to see how all these pieces fit together. I think its going to be a much looser team defensively but should be more fun to watch because of the scorers. Sergachev is their Dark Horse, he’ll carry or sink them.
Utah will be interesting. Similar to Nashville, I think they are better than the last two seasons but I’m not sure how it’ll all fit together. They might gel and ride the wave now that they have an adult arena and actual fans to play in front of though.
The Blues are probably better but not by a lot. They will benefit from the
Dallas on the backend is borderline dreadful and that’s with the insanely overrated Heiskanen. Forward wise they are now in near pure young gun territory which is good and bad. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few drift sidewise, especially if there are any injuries to one of Benn or Hintz. They’ll have the capspace to chase defense after next season and they are going to need it.
The Avs are worse than last year which is tough to accomplish. MacKinnon, Makar and Toews are going to be ridden harder than Kentucky Derby horses and it won’t be for the best. I’m curious to see a full year of Middlestadt, I think the heavier teams in the Central will make his life difficult coming from the Soft Atlantic.
I don’t think about the Wild much. Probably won’t change that this season.
The Jets… might not make the playoffs and might not be close. Chevy wiffed something fierce and the contract for Schieffele has about $35 million in negative value. What a brutal offseason. This won’t inspire season ticket holder renewal. This is probably his last season in the Peg.
A key worry for our Oilers of course are the demographics. The schedule was favorable last year in many ways. Not so much this season. Lots of back to backs and lots of cramming owing to the Four Nations tourney.
I think Coach KK will be astute enough to provide adequate rest time for his aging forwards but who knows. Keeping those guys fresh and avoiding running McDrai into the ground will be keys to another long run next spring.
Sergachev was acquired by Utah…not Nashville.
Whoops, good catch. Vacay Brain and all. My bad.
Yea Utah’s backend is quite young and not Old Man big. Valimaki could provide some ooomph there but I don’t know who is going to be their guy clearing say O’Reilly out of the crease. At least they are young. The new owner should feel good about a Bubble Battle team.
Sergachev 26 6’3″ 216
Durzi 25 6’0″ 198
Marino 27 6’1″ 185
Valimaki 25 6’2″ 212
Kesselring 24 6’4″ 200
Cole 35 6’1″ 225
Appears, other than Cole, they are in their primes and are far from small.
They balanced their pairs. The RD are smaller and/or lighter for NHL D, but are the more offensive types. The LD are the size. Oilers are moving that way I think (hope) with having a puck mover on each pair with a bigger/physical guy
Yep…and they’ve got RD 6’7″ 210 top prospect Maveric Lamoureux, 1st round 2022 on the way with #6 overall pick 2023 Dimitry Simasahev, 6’2″ 180 developing in Russia.
I don’t think size will be a problem going forward.
They are in their prime for peak scoring. Defensive prime hits later. And It’s not size its how they play. Here’s hits from 23/24.
Sergachev – 36 hits (roughly 1 per game)
Durzi – 48 hits
Marino – 39 hits
Valimaki – 69 hits
Cole – 83 hits
Kesselring – 106 hits.
For comparison
Nurse – 168
Ekholm – 136
Desharnais – 134
Ceci – 99
Kulak – 77
Bouchard -71
And this isn’t to say hits are the be all end all, they aren’t. But as measures of physicality they are one of the few stats we have. Having a puck mover is only useful if they have the puck. Having pint sized defensemen who can’t break a cycle or clear the net front isn’t a winning strategy. If they get shrugged off on every cycle play it won’t matter.
6’1 185 lbs is far from small? Sounds like string-bean.
Vegas’s defense is better with Hanifin. Arguably the best and deepest in the league when healthy.
Hanifin >> Martinez.
And they still have Eichel, Hertl, and Karlsson down the middle. It will depend how good the refurbished winger core is.
Vegas has one winger… Its nice that they have 3 good defensemen but they won’t be able to score.
Hanifin is overrated.
Teams keep moving on from him cause he’s overrated.
not sure if this has been discussed over the past few days
https://www.eishockeynews.de/nhl/artikel/2024/07/01/frage-nach-leon-draisaitls-zukunft-agent-jiri-poner-wird-deutlich/d4566cd4-6dd0-4c55-b49a-8a892b4967ba.htmlAnd
https://thehockeynews.com/news/nhl-rumor-roundup-the-latest-on-sidney-crosby-leon-draisaitl-and-mitch-marner
google translated:
Hopefully that means Drai knows he was paid at the top of the range even if he outperformed the deal
Going by what people here were talking about he earned an extra 8-12M or so
Maybe he’s in a good mood when he resigns
No. Draisaitl’s contract was smack dab in the middle of the range for the dollars paid to legit young centres in the 8 years after the ELC as a percentage of the cap. I posted the analysis at the time when I argued that the contract would be 8 x $8.5
I remember those conversations and I remember never being convinced that Drai wasn’t right at the top of the range of comparables when he signed.
That’s not how I interpreted Poner’s comments. He went on to say “Today he would be celebrated for that deal.” In his opinion, Draisaitl “has been playing at least 30 percent below his value for three years. But that’s not a complaint.”
To me, it sounds like they feel Drai was underpaid by 30%
Reading between the lines, the Oilers know Leons number and he’s going to free agency if they don’t meet it before camp. It must be high if they haven’t signed him yet. Can’t walk Leon to UFA, not an option.
Jackson said the new GM will do that deal
This quote is giving me $14.5M AAV vibes. Man do I hope I’m wrong.
I’d be sad but then it’s a sign and trade. Gotta be.
That’s the math of they feel he’s outplayed his 8.5 by 30%
I saw snippets of this a few days back and assumed it had already been discussed here.
When I saw it mentioned, the quotes also included this from Jiri Poner: “Very confident that there will be an agreement with Edmonton in the end.”
Ending on that note is obviously far more positive than the spin given here (and the THN link above acknowledges the positive without including that specific quote).
So I took Poner’s words as great news rather than the ominous sounding quotes/comments we have in this little thread. FWIW.
The draft and develop model for Edmonton’s current roster
Good
Stew
Bouchard
Holloway
Broberg
Not So Good
Schaefer
Bourgault
McLeod
Yamamoto
Samotukov
Puljajarvi
Benson
Jones
Bear
Lagesson
McLeod is certainly in the “good” category
I think you’re undervaluing the results from some players selected from the back half of day two of the draft.
McLeod was a home run.
Schaefer (nearly a second rounder) had barely begun being developed and was a major asset in the Ekholm coup.
Samorukov for Kostin was a win.
Jones/Bear/Lagesson all went out for roster improvements. All were depth players who were successfully developed on the farm post draft. Just because they didn’t turn into 1D doesn’t make them a bust — they outperformed their draft spot just by playing in the league, let alone being trade capital for legit NHL players.
You’ve also missed Marino, Niemelainen, Desharnais. All wins.
I think all of Schaefer, McLeod, Yamamoto, Samoroukov, Jones, Bear, and Lagesson could be moved to the Good column as they either outperformed their draft position or were used in trades that improved the team.
In the last 10 years, draft and develop hasn’t been the problem imo. It’s been poor trades (Chiarelli) and bad signings/cap management. (Chiarelli and Holland)
I agree with this. Yamamoto has the 13th most points from his draft year and that is about what you would hope for from drafting 22nd. I think it’s really misunderstood what a good/positive result is but the Oilers actually have more than their fair share of draft “wins” that they unfortunately turned into losses.
2nd round dude. He covered the bet.
What is not good about McLeod, Bear, Jones, Marino, Desharnais
They werent’t first round picks?
to me the Day 2 guys who make it to the show are a success of one of drafting or development, typically both.
Yamamoto scored the series-clinching goal against LA last season. After the playoffs it was time for him to sail on, but not after he had his moment as an Oiler.
Ryan McLeod had the series-altering goal in Game 4 against Dallas that helped get the Oilers to the cup final. His Oiler destiny fulfilled, he sails on to his future in Buffalo.
For every ex-Oiler I like to remember them for their biggest contribution while wearing Orange and Blue.
I like Mcleod, but I guess the Oilers decided they can’t wait for him.
Henrique re-signing sealed his fate, as Henrique has usurped McLeod’s spot on the roster.
Adam was -3 5v5 on the Ducks over the last 3 seasons. The team as a whole was -159.
Henrique has outperformed his xGF% 6 of the last 7 years. He’s a stronger two way player than Mcleod.
I’ll be rooting for Smiley in Buffalo.
I’m not sure there is anything to wait for. He is the player he is at his age. Which is fine. I think there’s a change in direction
The McLeod deal was an asset management deal. They sort of blocked him by signing Henrique, so to maintain asset value, they traded him for another asset whose timeline better fit with the current asset profile.
In addition to LT’s excellent summary, this “may” have been a contributing factor…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-f5YbqT885I
McLeod is gonna have nightmares about that for the rest of his life. It’s like Bouchard off the post in game 7 but this one McLeod really should have had. Lift that puck and it’s a different result.
Sure, and at least once in the finals, I can remember him not finishing a check and it led directly to a goal (after a couple of other mistakes from other Oilers). Not to mention the one awful giveaway…
However, I’ll remember him for being benched and then first game back he scored a huge goal. That is the way a man responds to adversity. That was one of the moments that really endeared this team to me, as he and others (Foegele, Holloway, Bouchard, Broberg, CFB) consistently responded to adversity.
Way to go young man! Keep on moving forward.
McLeod’s scouting report at the draft is why I never held his perimeter play against him. That lack of willingness to engage in the slot, and add a dash of inconsistency, is what had him available to us at #40 and not selected in the first round.
He was a fine second round pick, and I’m thrilled the organization was able to develop a prospect into a bona-fide full time NHL player deserving of a raise beyond the salary structure of the team. That they flipped him into an upgrade is manna. A fan could get used to this…
Fair to remember him as Marchant-lite? Or is that a tad nostalgic?
Stone-hands Marchant was so good at getting chances/breakaways and just could not score as much as you wanted. There was a series against Dallas in 2001 that had 4 OT games and if Marchant and Grier had scored on every breakaway (as opposed to 0 goals each) the Oilers would have won the series. I liked Marchant but man was he frustrating to watch.
Marchant, stone hands and all, scored more (on weaker teams, to boot) than our recently departed Highlander cum Sabre.
Buffalo employed the ‘draft high skill to trade for need’ strategy, so is that considered a success? They gave up the higher ceiling player for certainty and a young player who can fill and grow his role on their team right now.
I think time will show the Oil win the trade but many here wanted this type of strategy (Draft skill, trade for need). The fact that it’s small skill is a factor too. If this was 2012 we’d bemoan the fact this team has no snarl and no size. In that vein, it’s always so fascinating how organizational needs change in the NHL.
How are you supposed to know what will happen 5 years from now? Like the Oil’s defence and the eventual Nurse overpay. I say every odd year do what Dallas did and draft all right shot D just to have trade pieces for playoff runs (cough, Lindholm trade for Brusceiwitz).
— To me a bunch of things can be true at the same time. We don’t know what McLeods ceiling is but have a pretty good idea and the floor is pretty good.
— LTs draft comment captures who he is.
— Savoie could be good couldbe a flop. We do t know untill if/when he plays the same amount of games as McLeod had.
— We haven’t seen the oilers do a trade like this in forever: I can’t think of the last trade for a high draft back for an emerging bona-fide. This was different shopping ailes than previous management regimes
That is because the Oilers haven’t had any extra “emerging bona-fide” players in forever.
The Oilers have a lot of Right Hand shots at the Top and throughout their prospect pool (Savoie, O’Reilly, Lavoie, Kemp, Bourgault, Pederson, Philp, Stefan, Wanner, Akey, Berezkin, Copponi, Wakely, Sundin). I suspect this is part of their approach to drafting and acquiring prospects.
Well said, LT.
McLeod was an excellent second round pick who delivered on both his projected strengths & weaknesses. Got a good return. No reason to crap on him as he heads to his next destination.
Well said. He more than covered the bet, but it’s human nature for some to focus on what a player isn’t instead of what he’s very good at. Highlander will be in the league a long time, too bad a chunk of it will be in BUF.
Probably pretty happy with the destination; close to home and a spot on the 3rd line. His friends and family can get down to Buffalo for games. It is only a 1 1/2 hour drive to Buffalo from Mississauga.
Absolutely not. He can be helpful, just not a good fit on the Oilers now
I remember when we drafted him that the main knock was that he played on the perimeter of the action. That he wasn’t someone who would engage physically. It’s just interesting to me that after all these years of development, different coaches and systems and teammates, some things are just a part of someone’s makeup and can’t get coached out. I mean that genuinely, not that it was a failing of anyone in particular.
I wish him the best, and I wish us the better!
I too wish him well. If a player does not have physical contact ingrained in his mindset by the time he comes out of Juniors, doubtful if it will ever happen. You need to be wired for that.
I am impressed with the return. Top 10 draft picks are hard to come by. JJ has been on a roll. Now for 1 more physical forward and some tinkering with the D…..
Well put. I liked this draft because they drafted players that are like what they are looking for more of, and in the forwards mostly also looked for skill. Hoping players change who they are is not a good bet. They can all learn to play two ways better, but if you want aggressive physical players they need to be that way in juniors I think, has to be in their nature