Tracking Shut Down Blue From Obscure Leagues

This is the NHLE defense for July of 2017. The eye, assaulted by the color scheme, manages to find NHLE and sees Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. That’s the conversation piece. Wander a little farther down the list and we see Hahvahd defender John Marino, who wasn’t getting any playing time on the PP but would emerge as exactly the player I was looking for with NHLE in summer of 2017.

A journey deeper into the list would uncover the shutdown blue, routinely under 10 pts-82GP NHLE. Do you see Vincent Desharnais right at the bottom? The problem with NHLE is the problem with the French in war: All of the cannons are inevitably pointed in the wrong direction. When it comes to evaluating young shutdown blue, look for the word “speed” and learn to be patient.

BAUER BERRY

The scouting reports on Bauer Berry resemble those of Matt Greene 20 years ago. Elite Prospects writes about Berry “is a suffocating defender with a physical style and clean retrievals. He wins body position early. If he’s given a bit of space, he picks the puck up with speed, draws pressure, and ignites the rush. A punishing down-low defensive game rounds out the core of his game.” Please click the link there is more there.

Greene’s bio was similar, I remember distinctly the words “rugged” and “speed” along with size and winning battles from the Greene scouting report. Now, it doesn’t mean one damn thing because there’s only so many ways to say rugged and speed and there’s a lot that goes into being an NHL defenseman. Additionaly, and you may not remember or have been old enough, but Greene struggled plenty before establishing himself as a bona fide NHL blue.

All of which is to say I don’t have much to tell you about Bauer Berry save for the fact that “speed” appears in his scouting reports. He’s a big man already, he has genetics on his side, and we’ll see.

Here are the men who Edmonton drafted over the years with similar circumstances. How many do you recognize? How many were worth the draft bet?

2000—D Jason Platt in the 8th round. Drafted out of Omaha (USHL) after 18-year old season. Attended college at Providence and signed with the Oilers after full four years in NCAA. Turned pro at 23, peaked with 109 AHL games.

2002—D Matt Greene in the 2nd round. Drafted out of Green Bay (USHL) after 18-year old season. Attended UND for three seasons, turned pro at 22 by signing with the Oilers. Greene would play in the SCF’s that season and enjoyed a long NHL career (615 games).

2009—D Troy Hesketh in the 3rd round. Drafted out of Minnetonka (USHS) after 17-year old season, he did not progress.

2009—D Kyle Bigos in the 4th round. Drafted out of Vernon (BCJHL) after 20-year old season, he attended Merrimack College (NCAA) for four years before turning pro at age 24 by signing with the San Jose Sharks. Peaked with eight AHL games.

2014—D William Lagesson in the 4th round. Drafted out of Frolunda (Swedish Juniors) after his 17-year old year, he played the following season in the USHL before heading to the NCAA UMass-Amherst for two years. Once turning pro he developed by sundial but has played in 100 NHL games. This blog recognizes 100 NHL games as being a draft success for a fourth-round selection, your mileage may vary.

2016—Matt Cairns in the 3rd round. Drafted out of Georgetown (OJHL), he couldn’t get into the lineup in the USHL (not a good sign) so played in the BCHL to complete his year. Played sparingly in freshman season with Cornell 2017-18. Did not sign in Edmonton. Has played in 14 AHL games since 2021.

2017—Phil Kemp in the 6th round. Another player drafted out of the U.S. National Development Program. Kemp has a defensive reputation, he was effective at Yale and has established himself in the AHL as a reliable defender. Has played in one NHL game.

2021—Luca Munzenberger in the third round. Drafted out of Cologne, Germany, he played for the University of Vermont last season. He’s a perfect example of this player-type, Munzenberger has been playing college for three years and remains mostly a mystery. He is big and can skate, so never say never.

I know some of you look at the numbers for a player like Munzenberger and draw the conclusion that he has no value. I would respectfully submit that as you track this type of prospect more and more, your view will change a little. Always remember we don’t know what we don’t know. Munzenberger’s goal differentials have improved markedly in three years, he’s still a big fellow who can scoot. Best to track him through his senior season, find the remnants and roll ends of information that come available, and then see if the organization signs him. Making an early call on this player-type is just useless. Example: Poor Vincent Desharnais on the NHLE list above. Using offensive metrics to track shutdown blue is like pissing in the wind and that’s a fact. Honestly.