We’ve reached the point in summer when I begin to compile three lists. “Certain Oilers” usually numbers 10-12, sometimes more, and the cover photo is from July 2022. I also have “Uncertain Oilers” and “Distant Bells” and those charts can number anywhere from five to 20. It’s a fun thing to do, but also gives us an idea about where the team is headed. I’m not going to construct the list yet, but thought it might be a fun exercise to contemplate a few names.
We can easily name most of the expected roster for 2024-25 and will probably be 90 percent correct. Skinner, Pickard, Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse, Broberg, Kulak, Ceci, McDavid, Draisaitl, Henrique, Nuge, Skinner, Holloway, Janmark, Hyman, Arvidsson, Brown, Perry and Ryan is 20 names.
Is that your list? I’m sure we have a few disagreements, but that seems to be the group as it idles in the driveway mid-summer. One thing we need to agree on from the outset is that some of the names above will join Evander Kane on the LTIR (assuming he lands there, if he’s ready opening night the Oilers are going to be active in the trade market) or be sent to the minors. Candidates include Corey Perry and Derek Ryan.
So, who do we like in the ‘uncertain’ category? You can’t just list your favourites (mine are Matthew Savoie, Xavier Bourgault, Noah Philp, Max Wanner, Raphael Lavoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Ben Gleason), several of those names (XB, Wanner, Rodrigue) would be the distant bell category talents this fall.
One player who has an opportunity (imo) is Lane Pederson. He’s a RH center on a team that doesn’t have one at this time. He is a quality pivot in the AHL and has multiple puck touches in most every game. He doesn’t push the river offensively with the Bakersfield Condors, but he lets the river know he’s there. I think Lane Pederson will be on the ‘uncertain’ list when I present it to you.
Troy Stecher should be a lock and I do think Josh Brown belongs there, too. I very much doubt either man spends the entire 2024-25 season in the NHL, so that seems uncertain out of the box. However, there are a pile of blue who deserve consideration for the ‘uncertain’ list.
Connor Carrick was signed by current management. That’s always important to note. It’s like the George Carlin skit about staying at a friend’s house. He gets to his room and has to move the owner’s “junk” off the night table so he can put his “stuff” there. New management likes to see their choice succeed. It’s human nature.
Ben Gleason, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Noel Hoefenmayer are all worth discussion, I think Kemp is closer than the rest but a strong camp (as Gleason posted a year ago) can make things interesting.
Up front, aside from Pederson, I really like Raphael Lavoie’s chances. If you put him in a room with the NHL wingers who will populate the third and fourth lines next season, Lavoie is seemingly the only one who is not eligible for the pension. I can see a scenario where Lavoie opens up the season on the fourth line with Mattias Janmark and Lane Pederson. It isn’t likely, but it’s at least uncertain.
I don’t believe Xavier Bourgault has a snowball’s chance in hell of making the team, so he is a distant bell. It’s his time, but Bourgault (imo) is behind Noah Philp by several miles as an NHL candidate. Okay. I’ve been rambling for a time. What is your certain list? Uncertain? I’m interested in reading your thoughts.
New for The Athletic:Oilers hidden gems that could impact the 2024-25 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5635476/2024/07/14/oilers-2024-25-season-prospects-hidden-gems/
Do we get a new GM this coming week? Something tells me there are no more moves coming until that hire has been announced.
Edit to note: The following is not factual, but rather meant as entertainment.
==
Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Oilers to announce Mike Liut as GM in joint press conference Monday morning.
“I think it’s critically important that the general manager is in place before we get into the meat of that discussion because I’m sure for Leon and his representatives, they’re going to want to know what the vision is, who the GM is, all of those sorts of things. It’s a big move,”
Jeff Jackson, June 27.
8:08 PM • Jul 13, 2024 • 27 Retweets 25 Quotes 300 Likes 5 Bookmarks
I’ve seen his name in rumours but I don’t see it on Friedman’s twitter feed here yet.
because its not real!
If it’s the case, having both McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s former agents as the top dogs in the org is certainly one way of trying to keep both players around.
— the longer it lingers the more I believe it’s an internal hire: which would be a mistake IMO
— Management group would feel pretty good about what they did this summer and reason the just in-house.
— I would fear a malleable supplicant (like say Keith), but hopeful for someone who might not be considered a stud but has game and brings stuff that adds to the existing skill sets (with perhaps a different perspective as well).
Wouldn’t it linger signify the greater potential for an external hire, as opposed to internal (where the candidates would be better known before the process even started)?
Jackson did state expressly that he needed to wait a period of time prior to approaching teams to get permission to talk to certain people he had identified that were under contract.
A’s hire A’s. B’s hire C’s who hire D’s. I think the consensus is that Jackson is an A. It should be a good hire.
A’s hire people smarter than themselves.
Certain
RNH Mcdavid Hyman
Skinner Drai. Arvidsson
Janmark Henrique Brown
Holloway
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Kulak
Skinner
Pickard
Uncertain
Kane Savoie Ryan
Lavoie Peterson Perry
Ceci, Stecher, Brown, Kemp
Rodrigue
Your list of twenty names is reasonably accurate. However, I wouldn’t include Holloway & Broberg just yet because they aren’t signed… yet. I won’t include Ceci & Kulak because they are potential candidates for trade bait to circumvent the cap. Also, I won’t include Ryan & Perry because they are just really old, sorry to say. So, my list of certain Oilers is down to 14, simply because of the uncertainty of the certainty for the time being. Those six players will lead off the uncertain list along with Stecher & J Brown, Savoie, Philp, Kemp, Wanner, Lavoie & Rodrigue. Just as much uncertainty as there is certainty at this point, all tied at 14. Honestly, it’s just too early to assess. Very positive start to the off season with three months to go.
Good Lord I forgot all about Evander Kane. I guess he should be added to the list of uncertain Oilers. It’s 14 to 15, uncertainty prevails.
What if Leon decides to let his boss know well in advance that he’s moving on.
Uncertainty prevails.
I love Leon and I hope he signs for 8 years with him and Connor being playing duel G.M’s. If he’s moving on it’s up to Jackson to get a haul for him soon.
Jethro Tull better get his butt over here and post. It’s only the giving that makes you what you are.
I’m not sure any of the guys in the Bake are ready for prime time including Savoie
Lavoie is as ready as he’ll ever be – if the coach was able to find him some reps on a talented 3rd line, you never know – unlikely though.
Philp looked to be very much NHL ready a year ago – if he can get back to where he was at the end of 2022/23, I think he can take some reps away from Derek Ryan.
Lavoie may be as ready as he will ever be, but that doesn’t mean it’s NHL ready.
With Holland gone Lavoie may recieve enough of a opportunity (showcase) to get traded to Montreal.
Montreal did see Lavoie playin 6 exhibition games last year and decided they didn’t want him for free.
I’m hearing Nurse dragged down by Ceci, Nurse dragged down by Desh, and I’d like to know how the numbers parse this owing to Doc having inferior or poorly matched partners (I expect there are in fact indicators). To my eye, with the exception of that one season where we all thought he’d turned the corner, Nurse has never once played within his lane, not trusting the goalie to do his job, or his blue line partner to do his, but instead applying that size and speed and athleticism toward ill advised, ad hoc solutions to every play. I fear he’s nine years into failing to grasp that perfecting or even steadying his positional play is a question of a properly situating it within the play of his teammates. For contrast, when you watch Ekholm you can see that that aspect of the game is so obviously, innately understood. The Viking is a talent but he’s still only playing within his game, and stronger for it. I rarely see that steadiness and rote understanding in Nurse – it’s like every shift, every match, the game is born anew for him.
This is why it’s critical they get someone who fits playing with him better
Des and Ceci are exactly the wrong types
Is Makar available then? Cause that’s the type of RHD that you’d need to cover up for Nurse’s lack of defensive awareness.
I think with a player that gaps well and can retrieve and make a reliable pass to the right place, he would play better
Because he tries to do too much having a weak partner takes him out of his best game. He needs a partner he can trust and focus on doing his job well
It’s important because they will probably need to trade him in a couple of seasons, and if he is seen to be playing well he’ll be tradeable because his relative cap hit will drop each season. Especially if the better partner helps him produce more, and he can recover a more aggressive physical game. Or maybe at that point they can keep him
When guys start getting 11-12M 9.25 isn’t so egregious
Problem is this … if Nurse is making 9.25 million, then what’s Bouchard going to ask for?
I don’t see a way forward for Nurse on the Oilers that allows them to continue to ice a deep team that can compete for the Cup year after year, with extensions for Leon, Bouchard, McDavid and Stu coming up in the next few seasons.
If Nurse was carrying his own pairing then that’s a different story. When Nurse requires another 5-6 million dollar RHD to keep his pairing above water, then it’s time to ask if he’s actually the problem.
There’s not much out there for right handed d.
Unless Jackson can find an emerging talent.
OP mentioned yesterday that Larsson has an expiring contract, but he’s not a puck mover.
Calgary has Rasmus Anderson with two years left, but Craig Conroy isn’t exactly looking to help the Oilers.
Conversely, demand is high. Many contenders are short on right-handed defenders. Florida has one, in Ekblad. Colorado has Josh Manson slotted at 2Rd
Only way to get Andersson is through a third team. He has a six team no trade list though so that complicates things I would think. Hard to find a team that wouldn’t want to keep that contract for itself.
💯 Occam’s razor is such that NURSE is the primary cause of his atrocious goal share in the playoffs. Not to mention Ceci actually posted a positive share away from him. How ridiculous a conversation to have: trying to find a partner to let your highest paid veteran defender succeed. JJ knows what’s up. He’ll make the requisite changes.
I’m also sure that, JJ, professing to having watched ALL Oilers games since McDavid was drafted, knows that Nurse’s established level of play and historical norms is so much better than his playoff performance and the likelihood of being much better going forward is high,
It’s true Nurse has played better but the cold hard fact is that he cannot be a passenger with a $9 million contract. He can’t even be ordinary. At that number he needs to be able to drag a dead body around as a defense partner and be even or better. I continue to believe that Nurse plus Ryan for Ristoleinen and Peterson is a deal that works for us now and in the future if Philly is willing. Yes Nurse has a NMC – but if Connor and Drai don’t believe he’s capable – then he will probably be willing to go.
I would suspect that Connor and Leon are not of the belief that he’s not capable and, even if they were, the fact that he’s raising a young family who have roots in Edmonton likely plays a large factor in “willing to go”.
The team can’t accept a $9.25 million anchor if it wants to win. It’s a Denver boot. Bad enough that we still have Neal and Campbell on the books. Sorry I simply don’t accept that McD and Drai value Nurse as a buddy more than winning. You accept the big bucks – you accept the expectations and backlash if you don’t deliver – it’s business cold and simple.
I believe that Leon and Connor value Nurse’s on and off the ice much more than you do in your post and, even if that wasn’t the case, again, with a young family being raised in Edmonton, etc., the team may have no choice but to accept.
Also, the anchor that Nurse’s contract is, if he gets back to established levels of play, and historical norms, is highly exaggerated, even if still a material overpay.
His playoff performance this past season is not indicative of his established levels of play.
Massive year by Bourgault. He has work to do to just put his name back in the “real prospect” category.
Chaulk was on with Gregor this past week and spoke alot about Bourgault and how the two of them have had some great conversations and have a plan and Bourgault is reaching out and asking for drills for the off-season, etc.
Will Bourgault play with Savoie or Philp?
I say Philp in a true “all-situations” type line.
Stauffer mentioned Bourg the other day and seeing him before last camp. He didn’t think Bourg was fit enough, but had been working out. Sure takes some kids a while to get the plot, he’s not the first one, I hope he has a great summer training his but off, Ralph as well
I’ll be surprised if Perry is on the roster to start the year.
A. His base contract value is exactly equal to the amount that can be buried in the AHL ($1.15 million)
B. His performance bonuses are $150k for playing 15 regular season games and $100k in playoff related bonuses
C. He’s 39 years old
I think those facts are a tell about Perry being a guy who wants another playoff run but doesn’t really want the grind of another season.
Ryan is in the same boat. I doubt either one is able to play effectively on a nightly basis and yet the two cap hits amount to over $2 M.
The path to cap compliance right now is:
Lavoie, Holloway and Broberg replacing Perry, Ryan and J. Brown.
Basically $1.920MM for Holloway and Broberg.
Caveat: I guess it doesn’t have to be Lavoie, could be Pederson or any other league min player (anything above league min reduces the pot to pay Broberg/Holloway.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the roster to start the year. Perry scored at a 17 goal pace last year after joining the Oilers. I feel like he’s on the fence between certain and uncertain. I’d guess he plays ~50 games again this season. I definitely agree that the base salary of 1.15 is a tell. They know it’s not a guarantee he can cut it.
I hear you. And my position is pure speculation. It just feels like an “I’ll see you guys after the deadline” sort of contract.
The cap savings from Perry to Ryan or Perry to Lavoie are significant at the beginning of season, and negligible post-deadline. And it seems like the Oilers finally have a management group creative enough to leverage that.
Yeah, I like that thought about the cap savings. It might depend on whether we’re in LTIR and if we can/are accruing cap space. I hope Lavoie eats his lunch and makes sure it’s not even a discussion.
Perry didn’t sign to ride busses and carry his own equipment
He doesn’t have to play in Bakersfield for his cap hit to be buried.
Don’t they have Derek Ryan as the right shot center? Acknowledging they like him better on the wing these days, he did play center in the playoffs.
Pederson has a strong year in Bako last season but never got a call-up, is that a tell?
I think that Noah Philp is the natural successor to Ryan but this presumes he can back to where he was a year ago – he was VERY good in the 2nd half of 2022/23 season – maybe he never gets back there?
Ryan was torched 🔥 during the playoffs.
He sure did.
He’s still a RH Center that the Oilers have, right?
I agree that its likely that “something will give” and there will be a trade or an LTIR placement but there is a path to cap compliance without that.
I will caveat this with, while I don’t think its a coincidence that Perry’s cap hit is at exactly the amount that can be buried in the AHL fully, I doubt they will waive Corey Perry out of camp.
With that said, if they did replace Perry with Lavoie on the roster, that saves them $375K on the cap which means they can sign Holloway and Borberg at $1,920,833 and be cap compliant waiving and assigning Ryan and J. Brown.
This could be a plan even if they need to LTIR Kane as it would maximize LTIR reserves and call up a couple of player after the LTIR placement on opening day.
$1,920,833 seems a bit slight for Broberg and Holloway but this is the last time the Oilers will have all the leverage on these players – Holland had a history of grinding players coming of their ELCs with no arb rights (see Yamamoto. see McLeod) and Jackson/new GM might need to do the same.
I don’t know – it feels like waiving him out of camp is exactly what happens. There is an opportunity to assign him without passing through waivers before the start of the season. I am only speculating, but I think he and the team have an agreement for him to join them around deadline time.
He would need to pass through waivers no matter what time he is assigned.
I don’t think he would get claimed – not at his $375K over league min plus $150K for 15 games played.
Thanks for clarifying. I had it in my head that players could be assigned before opening day without waivers.
I doubt anyone puts a claim on Perry if he’s waived.
NHL_SID with a look at the D at ON
Bro was the only D able to post net positive on-ice results with Ceci in the playoffs, and the only D able to post a positive goal share with Nurse. However they ran a crazy PDO and had poor metrics other than goal share, not likely to last
To me the way forward is move Kulak and Ceci and someday Nurse. They may not be able to do anything to acquire a RD, but Bro should play LD and Ceci is as Godot says tanking everyone but Bro. But that may not last, time to move on. I think Kemp is likely to do better than Ceci at this point if need be
Experience doesn’t matter if the experienced player can’t get the job done and hurts the team. Try something else. Get another LD for depth if the think they need one
This. Broberg will the best 2nd best LHD by the end of next season. Nurse will be a 9.25 million dollar boat anchor who is 3rd on the LHD depth chart.
Maybe JJ hits another home run and finds Nurse a partner other than Bro. Then they could run the pairs more evenly keeping them fresh and having Nurse look better for when the trade comes
Maybe for reasons we don’t know like there isn’t a trade available, they use Bro RD. But all signs point to it not working well, and I want the best version of Bro, not a diminished one
Having 3 pairs that can play well would really amp things up. Playoffs especially
IF Nurse is traded, I wonder if the trade will be for Erik Karlsson. This team has a Swedish flavour going on right now, as well as massive Cup potential, so that might make it appealing to EK65.
For Nurse, perhaps a move to Pennsylvania might make his life more enjoyable, you know, for no longer getting blamed for the traffic on Whyte Ave.
Nurse has a young family with roots in the city – not sure he’s agreeing to go to the burgeoning decade of darkness that’s going to be starting in Pit.
I am hoping the internal development of the last few years for Kemp, Lavoie, Pederson, and Philp pays off and they get legit chances over the course of the year…not all at once of course …and Philp will likely need at least 1/3 of the season in the A to get back in the swing of things…but who the hell knows, really. 😁
this will be of interest for you freaks and geeks who have not seen it yet…
CapWages
http://www.capwages.com
As I found out about at the dailyhive site
The sun also rises…
Great find!
Excellent. Thanks.
A handful of teams have some work to do to get cap complaint.
For the former users of what is now the Washington Capital’s property CapFriendly, a new site called CapWages has arrived, at capwages dot calm.
Not the same, but still lots of useful info here.
Puckpedia as well. I also ran across another but didn’t like it, can’t remember the name
Puckpedia is the new top dog.
There are a few new sites out there the mimic Capfriendly but the key is how they get updated – puckpedia has relationships with executives within the organizations and agents, etc. – they will be able to accurately update the data in real time.
Not to mention, Hart is from Edmonton (currently lives in LA), has family back in Edmonton and is a massive Oilers fan.
Sorry we would have likely posted this news simultaneously but it took me a while to get through security 😜
Not worries, at all.
I was unable to post the link, since it identified my post as possible spam, so I spelled it out instead.
J.Jackson & Co. did such a great job of adding to an already Cup worthy forward group. I believe we should all be pleased.
The D-core & it’s deployment is my biggest question.
Ekholm Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Nurse Kulak
I think it’s fair to say when the playoffs ended, Nurse was the 4th best LHD on the roster. Hopefully he finds a way to be far better at defending during next year’s post season. I will cut him some slack as it’s only his 9th year in the NHL.
Nothing against Ceci as he is a fine second pairing RHD
I just believe this roster spot is the biggest area of need for improvement if the Oilers hope to
“break on through to the other side”
“Yeah!” as the kids say
I don’t see it this way at all.
I think Nurse was broken carrying Ceci And Vinny in the top 4.
I think Kulak and Ceci are ok as a third pairing, albeit an expensive one, with Ceci being the weaker link.
Let’s see how Nurse makes out with Broberg to start the season and evaluate from there.
Give them 20 games. That’s what I’d like to see.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Broberg
Kulak-Ceci
For those who say ‘why not have Nurse play RH side?’ the answer is Broberg is comfortable there. It can be done.
^^^^ this
unless a winning trade can be found.
Stecher and Brown are not the every day answer.
As much as I’d like to run back solid, veteran Kulak, if he and Ceci can be packaged for a solid RD I do it and move Bro back to the left side. Of course if there are injuries that does really thin things out.
For whatever it is worth.
From Mike Commodore’s twitter feed about a week ago.
====================
Alberta NHL hockey came up..for the record I like what Flames & Oilers did. Flames stay the course..nothing crazy…the Oilers…2 signings that stand out to me…Stecher & Josh Brown. Simple, Hard working/hard nosed defence and get puck to forwards asap. hard to play against. Oilers lacked that in playoffs IMO. I really like both those guys.
I watched him (Brown) a decent amount in AZ. I liked him right away. Simple, tough, straight forward. Gets around the ice pretty good too for a big guy.
I’d like to see Kemp and Ceci split the games roughly 50-50 with Kulak till the New Year.
Break in Kemp, while one still has Kulak. I think Kemp brings the most potential upside of the suspects (Kemp, Ceci, Stecher, Brown, Carrick Gleason).
I hope Kemp comes to camp on a mission.
The longer Kulak and Ceci play together, the worse their results will be. One could see the decline already by the end of the Panthers series.
Kulak Ceci is a downgrade from Kulak Desharnais.
How much more evidence do we need that Ceci isn’t a good fit on team whose coach wants to play an uptempo fast break game? Serevalli says there’s a market for him, let’s get going, assets or a trade
He is not more effective than Stecher to me, and isn’t physical really so no loss there. There are players that look like NHL players but aren’t good enough at core aspects of the game. Somehow it fools NHL teams, I’m not sure how anymore with all the data and analytics departments
Thankfully JJ has moved on from a couple of them, maybe more to come. I think it’s better as much as possible to start with the team settled from the start
Curious if there are stats that support your claim that Ceci at 3RD is a downgrade from Desh at 3RD?
I checked NST for playoffs and Des had worse 5v5 outcomes than Ceci with Nurse and Kulak. But, both had bad outcomes. Only Kulak Ceci approached acceptable at a GF% of 45.45
This is likely the way it starts but I do think there will be some reps for:
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Which could pretty fantastic too.
Is Ek the young stud D whisperer?
He night be and Bouchard is at the point where he’s a play driving stud no matter who he plays with (in my opinion).
The Nurse Broberg pairing is intriguing.
By the eye test, Broberg looked like our 3rd best defensman during the playoffs.
The numbers don’t quite align. He only averaged 15:47 per game which was the least amount by quite a margin. Expected goals are lagging too.
Before we give Bouchard 10M a year can we see if he can be a stud without Ekholm? I think Ekholm’s worth is being undervalued. I would do this for the first 20 games.
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm Broberg (Ekholm can play right perhaps)
Kulak Ceci or whatever is needed to be cap compliant.
I just don’t see how you mess with that pairing. Plus the Oilers have already played contract/deployment games with Bouch. I would not.
Surely this team is mature and good enough to mix and match through training camp and even into the first games of the regular season.
Deployment games?
What do you mean?
Bouchard was 55% goal share and 64% expected goal share without Ekholm this past season (274 minutes).
Bouchard was also 50% goal share but, again, 64% expected goal share without both Ekholm and McDavid.
it pains me to have to agree with your assessment of Darnell Nurse.
The Hanson brothers
they are dam fine skaters
old time hockey
Barring other moves, I can see the 22 or 23 man roster being fleshed out with some combo of Brown/Stecher/Kemp/Gleason/Bourgeault/Lavoie/Savoie/Pederson/Philp/Hamlin. Likely 2F 1D as is the general practice I suppose. My bias is towards Kemp/Lavoie/Pederson/Philp being the frontrunners…
I’m guessing a 22 man roster to start and it being Stetcher and Lavoie, without further adds to the 50 man. If we go with 23 I would be adding in Pederson as the 2nd RS Face-Off guy. I anticipate some PTO’s coming to push the pensioners in camp as I am unsure if management trusts any of the guys from the A last year. Things will become much more clear with the arrival of the New GM. Also, I would keep Ceci to start the year as there are no better options out there at RD, everyone put forward seems like a lateral move. Look at cap as positionally, yes overpaid for 3RD but between 2 and 3 RD in the ballpark for correct salary allocation.
Without any other moves (cap out or LTIR), there is no ability to have more than a 21 player roster no matter who is waived/called-up.
Love the Tull reference… Songs From the Wood IIRC?
wondring aloud…. will the years treat us well?