Moon rise over Turtle Lake. Photo by Todd Kirkpatrick
There’s a feeling I get when I look to the west, and the earth is shifting under my feet. There was a time in this fair land when the Oilers made brilliant procurement decisions. Laughing right out loud moments, the carefree wonder of youth, as Glen Sather rifled through his friends belongings and took whatever he liked over and over again. Harry Sinden and Lou Nanne should never have answered the phone, or gone hunting or fishing.
There was a time when Glen Sather, GM of the Oilers, owned the hockey world. It’s been so long, and we don’t even know the name of the new general manager, but this organization has been matriculating in a very good direction since the Zach Hyman signing. Not perfect, mind, but then again Sather wasn’t either.
Sather was amazing. There were heavy rumours about Edmonton’s interest in NHL star Garry Unger but the price was (reportedly) Paul Coffey. Slats waited, got Unger for a seventh-round pick and it was fun watching the famous center play for Edmonton (although he cost the team in a big way during a truly famous game).
He dealt for center Laurie Boschman, who should have worked out but did not fit the team. Sather would cash him for Willy Lindstrom, who was a perfect fit.
Oilers fans did not fear what came after “the Oilers have made a trade” when listening to the sports updates on the radio. Seriously. The feeling was more like anticipation, and often the player would be Mark Napier and often Mark Napier would help the Oilers win Stanley.
He traded two failed high draft picks (Jason Bonsignore and Steve Kelly) along with rugged blue Bryan Marchment for a prime time defenseman (Roman Hamrlik) and I still can’t believe he got Boris Mironov and a first round pick (and Mats Lindgren) for big and tough Dave Manson.
Sather had balls of a pirate, pardon my French.
The current Oilers management needs to win a Stanley, have the lore of these moves build over time, but we can credit them with one thing already: that feeling of dread and doom when contemplating the next transaction has disappeared. It’s like sunshine after the rain, and should be trumpeted and celebrated by Oilers fans. It’s been a very long time.
New for The Athletic: Oilers hidden gems that could impact the 2024-25 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5635476/2024/07/14/oilers-2024-25-season-prospects-hidden-gems/
34 years, after 5 in 7 years; those were the days my friend, we thought they;d never end
Tonight is a hosting the World Cup trial-effort disaster.
Big Sport Thing that Edmonton deserves but can’t have, wasted on Miami: July Edition.
Talking about offer sheets…
Braden Schneider, RHD for NYR. Drafted 19OV in 2020.
22 years old, 6’3″, 211lbs, a rising star who plays a rugged game with defensive acumen.
Extended in the Big Apple yesterday for an AAV of $2.2MM over two years. Classic bridge deal.
Compensation at that salary tier, $2,145,062 – $4,290,125, is a minuscule 2nd round pick.
Schneider will be value at $4.29MM by the end of the deal, most assuredly. Possibly even this upcoming season. Which is why Drury would probably have matched, given they have the cap space. That’s not the point, however.
If a crafty GM could sign him for something in that range, with enough term to walk the player to his UFA contract (and thus put the player in a position to potentially maximize career earnings), then it would be value for most if not all of the contract. Especially relative to the assets spent on acquisition.
The next tier, $4,290,126 – $6,435,186, is one 1st round pick and one 3rd round pick.
These are the types of players you can’t obtain on the trade market for that cost. And rarely at the draft.
It should be a slam dunk strategy, to tender offer sheets to rising talent in those two tiers on an annual basis. Provided, of course, one has done one’s own housekeeping, and not left top organizational prospects vulnerable by prolonging their contract renewals to the last minute.
Good primer on the compensation tiers, and recent history of offer sheets (matched or not) in this article.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-rules-restricted-free-agents/gwhzvmvbcjbsmyf3qlckhdrz
There is, of course, a reason why offer sheets are so rare and that is that it is a small club with long memories.
And it is not just the GM’s with the long memories as much as it is the owners who are not interested in going to war with their fellow owners. It requires a specific need and opportunity to overcome the downside of such moves.
And this is because there are the agents always anxious to maximize clients and their own paydays.
Once a team has made itself a target by utilizing the offer sheet option any agent worth his salt would tell his young client coming off of his ELC to not sign with his draft team until he can get him to RFA status and see if he can grease the engine of revenge.
At least, that is what I would do. 😎
You make a strong point, I hadn’t considered the owners angle. But I don’t think that (peer pressure) would play into things as much as you suggest.
DK was at the helm with the Vanek/Penner offer sheets, wonder what that did to his capital across the league? Probably neutral on the balance. Still think that barn fight would have generated significant PPV sales toward HRR. Missed opportunity haha.
Most of the folks at the helm of an NHL team are skilled businessmen, I’m sure all of whom have partaken in some corporate raids and hostile takeovers in their day. This is merely another course of business, accounted for in the league rules for decades.
Seeing more regular offer sheets would add to the fabric of the game — it would generate more interest, and more eyeballs. Ergo, more revenue. Not engaging a legal, tactical tool is a missed opportunity in my mind.
I would love to see more offer sheets – unless they were on Oilers property, of course – but I make a distinction between NHL owners and their business acumen away from the league.
You don’t need to have friends in business if you are rich like these guys. There is virtually an unlimited number of companies and owners you can piss off while marauding through industries. Not so much when there are only 31 other guys and 12 or so of them have been around forever and are the real power in the league.
It has to be a special player or an important need or desperation.
Like the old adage goes – “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.”
Big business, small industry. Makes sense.
I’m not convinced that more offer sheets is going to generate interest and revenues. I mean, those interested in things like offers sheets and off-ice transactions are, well, us, people that are already vested in the game. I don’t see many non fans becoming fans or casual fans becoming hard-core fans and increasing revenues due to off-ice transactional matters.
Now they should make a trade for him since he’s signed.
Schneider has been solidly 3rd pair in terms of TOI each year of his career to this point. I don’t think it’s any kind of certainty he’ll be value for $4.3M in 2-3 years.
The reports I’ve read project him as an elite shutdown blue who can make quality outlet passes. Offence comes second to him, but the 20-30 point range comes up as reasonable. Not much a stretch to think he could do that, possibly a bit more, in the top-4 on this team.
I just can’t wait for Jeff Jackson to bust another move.To shed some more light on things.
Random Stauffer tidbits:
1) no idea what the status of Evander Kane is.
2) thinks the Drai camp is looking for an 8-year term (“we’ll see of the sources are correct”).
3 nothing imminent on Ceci or the need to open up apx $3.5MM of cap space.
4) wouldn’t expect the Holloway or Broberg deals until August but likely in the low “ones” and for two year terms.
————————-
Pagnotta mentioned on Saturday he thinks the Drai deal may be the 3-4 year term. I’ll lean towards trusting Stauffer but I actually hope its a 4-5 year deal.
2 years at apx $1.25MM is what I’m thinking on the RFAs as well but, as far as the need to open cap space, there is a path to a 21-player roster without any moves if those two come in at $1.920MM or less – they could grind them on one year deals and replace: Perry, Ryan, Brown with Lavoie/Pederson, Broberg and Holloway and be complaint – I think.
It is a mistake to wait to August to sign Broberg or Holloway, and give time for another GM to gain the courage to offer sheet one or a couple of GM’s to gang up on a tag team, with two offer sheets.
Frank Seravalli has been vocal about this suggesting some GM might offer Broberg a 6 year deal in the 4’s.
A team with a lot of cap space could conceivably offer sheet both if they have the relevant draft picks…some do.
To be clear, Frank has no inside information or heard anything on a potential offer sheet but has provided his opinion that he thinks a GM should.
Frank is fantastic, no doubt, some of the best connections in the sport and his inside information is imperative and valuable, however, this a personal thought/opinion and isn’t based on his position in the game or his connections.
Evergreen statement every July.
Last offer sheet signed, outside of the Canes/Habs 2019/21 fiasco, 12 years ago.
12 years ago?
That math ain’t mathin’, counsellor.
2013, so 11, not 12 – inconsequential to the point.
Your initial post had the correct dates, 2019 and 2021… which would be 5 and 3 years ago. Not 12, not 11 years ago.
Point being, offer sheets have recently pursued as an acquisition option by NHL GMs, if not common.
Much more recently than what you posted incorrectly (twice, now).
“outside of” the 2019-2021 fiasco. He excluded that for some reason as an outlier.
No, what I was saying is, aside from the Canes/Habs revenge offer sheets in 2019/21, there hasn’t been a signed offer sheet since 2013. A rare offer sheet accepted and then spiteful revenge for it that has turned out horribly – that’s in in the last 11 years.
The point is that offer sheets are so very rarely signed.
I have zero concern about Broberg or Holloway signing with another team this off-season
Thanks for restating your position, it’s much more clear this time. Also, my reading comprehension sucks today, must have needed a snack.
Yes offer sheets are rare, but excluding the one that goes against your point (whether it turned out well or not) ignores that they do happen. And recently.
I kind of wish they’d happen more often, personally speaking.
For young guys on the up like Broberg or Holloway, they’re exactly the type of player that should be targeted to improve a roster at a relatively low cost.
Since Penner’s offer sheet wasn’t matched by Burke in 2007, there have been seven offers matched by the parent club. A good number of which were likely at an AAV that was uncomfortable for the GM to match but felt they must instead of losing a key asset, and then resulted in some cap/roster restructuring.
Case in point — Shea Weber.
Another deft use of the offer sheet to manipulate the roster of a rival and gain a valuable player for your own roster was when SJS submitted an offer sheet on Nik Hjalmarsson. CHI matched, only to lose Antii Niemi as a free agent who became a cap casualty due to a sudden reallocation of funds. At an inflated rate.
Yes, they do happen but they are very rare.
We have this discussion every year and every year many RFAs go unsigned well in to August and even September.
There are apx 30 unsigned RFAs from Seth Jarvis to Thomas Harley to Arthur Kaliyev, to Cole Perfetti, to Lucas Ryamond, etc., etc., etc.
There is always a risk but its not a material risk, in my opinion.
Wasn’t there a blue moon that year?
What makes you think the delay is from the team rather than the agents? They can read tea leaves too.
Yes especially with our arch-enemy down the block lurking. Get out the blue book value these deals need to be signed toot suite.
I saw a clip of some TSN show (Onrait, I think?) where the guest talked about an 8-year extension for Draisaitl, and speculated about timing of the announcement after Connor’s wedding.
I think they grind Holloway down to less than $1M.
Around $850,000 on a two year.
Broberg at $1.25 for two years seems right to me.
I was told 2x$1MM each was dreaming.
There is usually a discrepancy in prognostication between those who use value to the team vs those who think it comes down to leverage. 😎
Yamamoto was squeezed.
Then when it was his turn he wanted paid, ultimately a contract he could not live up to.
I find it short term thinking to squeeze Holloway in the same manner. They agree as they have no leverage, but they don’t forget.
Then you trade them. That is what good GM’s do. They trade non core players whose cap hits exceed their value to the team. That is how the system is set up.
This is the #1 reason why roster construction speculation is in such flux this summer. Both the impact of the player and the cap hit have huge implications for the team – not just the forward group but any contemplated trades to upgrade the back end as well.
As I posted yesterday, though, I think everything is on hold pending the new GM announcement.
I say he has surgery August 19th
and it could be a reason for waiting on finalizing the Broberg/Holloway deals.
There is an easy path to cap compliance with no LTIR or trade:
Perry waived/assigned and replaced by Lavoie/Pederson for a $375K cap savings allowing $1,920,000 for the Holloway and Broberg signings (replacing Brown and Ryan).
Perhaps Jackson and his team want determination on Kane’s roster vs. LTIR status as, if its the former, he may want to grind the two RFAs to one-year deals.
The moves that Jackson & team implemented had timing issues.
Free agency waits for nobody & the McLeod trade was apparently initiated at the draft & made sense the moment Henrique agreed to return.
They were moves that couldn’t wait for a new GM to come in, familiarize himself with the team and make decisions. Broberg & Holloway can wait even as I agree that sooner is better than later.
Personally I am still hoping for a trade to get cap compliant rather than waiver wire finangling. There are still opportunities & weaknesses that could be explored.
Plus
The player must sign said offer sheet. The player and Agent are well aware of the situation, and if he signed an offer sheet knowing that the Oilers can’t match it – That would be a character flaw in the player. With the Oilers “being a real contender” would have no interest in matching. They are on the cusp of winning with this group and only desire “team players”. Even though Broberg was sounding like he wanted a change of scenery last year it was because he wasn’t playing. He can surly see he has a spot on this team now. A career defining decision for sure.
Kotkaniemi is a prime example of that, He didn’t help himself in his playing career and Carolina fooled themselves for revengful reasons.
Which is why it happens so little in the cap era.
This was speculation that was refuted by the team and player, never confirmed as fact.
Basically, Broberg wasn’t happy about being sent to BAK… but then again, what player would? Media ran with it and spun a narrative that was ultimately confirmed false (pretty sure Rishaug had the integrity to walk back his statements, not sure any other reporters did), yet still gets reposted by people trying to prove a point.
Good Morning LowTide – A salute to your way with words. Bringing back the memories of past Oilers in your way is truely original and warming at the same time. Never stop
If the Oilers do win Stanley this coming season, how much credit will be given to Ken Holland?
Presumably, Hyman will be a big part of it, likely Nuge at $5MM, Bouchard at a massive value deal ($3.9MM) – even Kulak/Ceci will have say, not to mention Skinner on a value deal $2.6MM.
It seems every time a GM with previous success if connected to the Oilers, the predecessor gets more credit that the manager connected to the Oilers (Jeff Gorton not Chiarelli, Jim Devellano and Jim Nill, not Ken Holland, Dave Tallon, not Stan Bowman).
Dale Tallon, no?
And what does Stan Bowman have to do with the Oilers, aside from the weak Internet rumours of him taking over as next GM?
As far as Groton>Chiarelli, the template is much the same in NYR and now MTL as it was in BOS. He’s pretty clearly the guiding hand at work.
Holland made as many gaffes as hits. Holland had his 4-1/6 well paid years of running the show. If anyone thinks the hiring of coach K.K who dragged us to game 7 of the final wasn’t all Action Jackson doing then all the power to you.
Does one get credit for getting to the Hillary step, but without the provisions to get to the peak?
Seems like, yes, happens all the time.
Wow getting to the Hillary step would be outstanding.
The OIlers got to the Hillary step. But failed because Holland decided to stick with Ceci, even though the main reason the OIlers lost to Vegas was that Ceci was not good enough.
Holland was satisfied with the Hillary step. When one is satisfied with the Hillary step, it makes the job easier. It means one doesn’t have to prepare for the hardest part of the climb.
The Oilers lost the Vegas series because Ceci wasn’t good enough, and because Nuge wasn’t good enough and Leon wasn’t good enough and Yamo wasn’t good enough and Nuge was good enough and Skinner was good enough and Bjugstad wasn’t good enough and Woodcroft wasn’t good enough.
Sorry OP, I think this is giving Holland too much of a pass. Holland was not a value deal signer outside of very young players or players with no better options. It was market for Bouch and Skinner as RFAs. It was also quite damaging to not find a way to lock Bouch up for 8. It will make the team weaker in the future. It was obvious he was going to get a lot of very expensive points, and he did just that
Regardless of his defensive play, he would have been a tradeable player at his age size and with that offense, there wasn’t much risk in doing it, but a lot of potential reward. The cap was doable if the decisions were made. You can try to be better for now and still think about the future, they aren’t mutually exclusive, and I don’t buy it was about keeping Connor and Leon, that’s a media construct. They don’t have a cup and they or their agents know there are cap issues that will affect the team quality on their next contracts, so the short term thinking didn’t help anyways
Nuge was said to be ~1M under market it was said at the time, maybe, we don’t know because he didn’t go to market. A mid scoring smaller player already playing wing mostly doesn’t always get top dollar. He also got 8 years with full trade protection. Love the Nuge, but he scored 70 points last season which is bottom third, very close to bottom quarter, for top line players. Playing with mostly Connor, on a historic PP. He had GF% 50 5v5 these playoffs while his most common linemates were upper 60’s. 22/23 playoffs GF% 5v5 27.27
Hyman was paid top of the market for him, more term than was reported out there for him, and what he has done given the chance to play with Connor could not have been predicted. And it was widely discussed here that the issues for both may come later because of term and trade protection
Ekholm was his best move. It had the most effect on the team. And it did because Holland couldn’t round out the D group. For the few good moves he made, the bad ones and the players he didn’t improve on in my opinion are why they couldn’t win a cup with the best player and an elite forward in prime with years of experience under their belts, and others. They played most of the playoffs with one functioning pair, until the coaches had to use Bro
Ceci McLeod Foegele and Des all struggled in 22/23 playoffs and he kept them, and they struggled again. Campbell unplayable and a cap anchor past and now into the future, where every cap dollar is critical because of the contracts coming up, exacerbated because of what they will now have to pay Bouch
Gerry Johannson (agent) was on Oilers Now a few days ago and said Edmonton has been a favoured place for years now. He would know. Holland gets part of that, but it is really Connor and Leon that are the draw, and the money the owner invests in the facility and player supports, league top. And winning, but credit for that goes mainly to Connor, because it’s his line that has driven the team, we know this because of on/off ice results. He hasn’t had a good enough team around him when he’s off
I mention that because it didn’t ‘have’ to take so long to get enough good players to get where they did, with the talent they had and what he inherited. It’s just how Holland chose to work, or was able to work, same support as JJ. It took JJ one week to not only finally get enough actual top 6 wingers, but to also restock Holland’s depleted system, this is the foil for how things can happen. Should happen given their situation
So some credit to Holland yes, but he also should wear his mistakes that I think held the team from already having a cup. We watched the GMs of the teams (and discussed it roundly) that have won the last 5 cups while Holland was the Oiler GM be very active in building their teams and upgrading weaknesses. And they didn’t have Connor and Leon
As for Talon, Zito rebuilt that team. Quenneville got them back into the playoffs and in 5 years without the first summer to make deals Zito got them to a cup. Lost his great coach dramatically, found another one that was the right fit. With 1 top player, not 3 or 4, and a terrible 10M contract for Bob that Talon signed
Pretty sure very few of the players from Tallon’s tenure remain as well, lots of turnover in the Zito era.
He had his anchors to start and quickly did what is supposed to be the easier part in getting the lesser players to round the team out
As an aside…the career arcs of Jeff Jackson and Bill Zito are remarkably similar.
Both played hockey…Jackson in the AHL/NHL..Zito at Yale.
After hockey both earned a law degree.
Both worked as agents in high profile organizations.
Both were Assistant GM’s…Jackson in Toronto and Zito in Columbus and also served as GM’s of the AHL Marlies and Monsters respectively.
Now both are showing a take no prisoners approach to roster construction.
It remains to be seen if Jackson will be as ruthless with his veterans as Zito has shown to be.
You could have also nearly identically described Chiarelli’s career arc with your post (aside from being the GM of an AHL team).
I have to agree w most points. Ken felt like a steady hand after Chia but on balance was far too passive and never did grasp strategic cap management. Kassian’s money should have been used to secure Nurse at value. Soup’s money should have been used to secure Bouch long term at value. Those two things alone set the table for the McDrai re-ups not killing team competitiveness, in addition to permitting roster upgrades in the interim.
Oil could have landed exactly where they are now, only with the assurance they can steam roll this league through the 2020s. Coulda got here sooner, stayed longer. Now, unless ongoing GM wizardry, it’s burn bright brief candle.
Oh well.
This is why I respond to things about Holland with details. He did some good, but the mistakes were so big and entrenched that I think his tenure – given what he started with – was neutral at best
I think some don’t fully appreciate what it means having Connor on the team. It’s a massive advantage. I’m relieved it’s a new day, and the difference with what just happened compared to before makes your head spin
We can argue/discuss any and all of the individual transactions made by Holland but that was not near the point of the post.
Holland’s finger-prints are all over the current roster and, if it wins the cup this year, does Holland get any credit.
We have discussed at length what a long-term deal for Bouch last summer would have done to the current team – is there chance at a cup this year as good with a $4MM player deleted from the roster?
Probably not.
If Knoblauch’s PTS% holds at .703 or better, I’m perfectly find with Holland’s name being left off the cup. Because if it’s real, and just a new coach bump, that will be a difference that matters.
Agree. Holland steadied the ship and rebuild credibility in the organization which eventually gave confidence to high-end UFA and a guy like JJ to join the Oilers. You don’t go from Tambellini and MacT to hiring JJ and signing Skinner/Heinrich/Arvidson/Brown/Janmark in one off-season. You need to rebuild credibility and confidence – which takes time – and Holland did an excelled job of that even if he was less successful in other areas. Running a large complex NHL team is not like sitting in a basement messing around with cap friendly like some people think (obviously not you).
Just picking up on our chat from yesterday. I agree that Nurse’s previous (rather than established) level of play is higher but his pairing has been a problem for 2 playoffs in a row. His play along with Drai’s injury probably cost us a cup. He might well be injured – but he never bothered to talk to anyone after the SCF – so who knows. You have to acknowledge that his previous level of play is receding into the distance and I’d rather deal him while we can since he hasn’t been part of the solution for a while.
Nurse is a quality individual, smart, and athletic – but facts are – he’s under-performing very badly given his salary and this is a performance-based business. You don’t need to adopt a Vegas-level of ruthlessness, but short and longterm team needs (the priority) dictate moving him. The guy isn’t struggling to make a mortgage and raise a family on a 5 figure salary. He’s makes $9 million a year and nowhere near earning it. Best thing is for all parties concerned is to find a mutually acceptable way to move on. Next season is not going to be a fun one for him if he stays and continues to perform poorly.
To report to “never bother to talk to anyone” – the post-game and garbage back interviews are those that are requested by the media.
They didn’t ask to speak to Nurse to, of course, he didn’t offer up a media availability.
Next season may not be fun for him if he continues to perform poorly but, on the other hand, it could be the best year ever if he re-established his play and, given his age and make-up, that is reasonably likely.
Its highly likely that, like Drai, Nurse was also playing through material injury – something that was tweaked worse in the SCF when he left the game after playing 3 minutes – Nurse being hurt enough to leave a playoff game means he was really hurt, right? Doesn’t seem reasonable he was anywhere near 100% 2 days later for the next game.
Five days ago, but still interesting that Bill Zito signed Adam Boqvist to a league minimum, 1-year deal.
And his brother Jesper to an identical deal.
The moves made by JJ linger like the fresh scent of petrichor after a long welcomed rainfall.
It’s refreshing that our new freeless leader is proactive for the now and just as importantly for the future.
Agreed! For Oilers fans under 40 like myself, this might be the first time in our life times that we can say the Oilers look like a well-run organization and that we trust/have faith in the front office. Gone are the days of worrying about the Oilers giving far too much $ and term to a player past their prime in free agency. I still remember the day Dave Nonis and the Leafs saved the Oilers/MacT from themselves by signing David Clarkson.