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The Edmonton Oilers management group is settling all family business this summer, and that includes the prospects who played one year ago for the Bakersfield Condors. It’s my belief the organization did Xavier Bourgault an enormous favour. As I mentioned in the recent top-20 prospects article at The Athletic, the young man wasn’t progressing through two AHL seasons. A new city and a reset is manna from heaven I’ll bet, and I wish him well. Now, about the return.
PROGRESSION (NHL equivalencies)
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On his draft day, Bourgault was a more impressive player. He has not been able to deliver as a pro. Bourgault does some things well (short, adept passes, and he’s great at anticipating and intercepting passes) but his lack of even-strength scoring in the AHL was a major concern for me.
Last season, in 55 games, Bourgault scored 4-7-11 at even strength. That’s .2 pts-game. He was 21.
When he was 21 and in the AHL, Mitchell Moroz scored 5-4-9 in 40 games (.23 pts-game).
I don’t know what happened to Bourgault and I’m not going to bury him here, but getting a new start is a fine idea for all involved. I can’t believe this is all he has, and will remain true to the math of the draft. It was a weird draft year due to the pandemic, but the QMJHL kids played enough games to trust in my opinion.
For the record, I had Bourgault 14, Stankhoven 16, Wallstedt 19 and Wyatt Johnston 47. My rankings are here. I can’t join in the “Coffey told them about Johnston and they wouldn’t listen, idiots!” because all of that verbal came after the fact. I don’t doubt Coffey advised them, and have zero doubt they should have listened.
On draft day, math loved Bourgault. It didn’t work out for him in Edmonton. Math is now wondering why this young man hasn’t made any progress. Me too. I hope he blossoms in his new town.
As for Jarventie and the fourth, I think it was a solid return. There are injury worries, but this is a player who has been able to tame two very good pro leagues (Liiga, AHL) and (if healthy) has a good chance to play NHL games this coming season. Don’t look past the fourth-round selection, either.
One final thing: One reason for the mass outrage on the Bourgault pick is the fact Edmonton passed on Jesper Wallstedt. He is 21, had a .910 save percentage in the AHL this season and is progressing. We should let him tell us who he is, but this isn’t Alex Debrincat over Tyler Benson. Not yet, anyway. It’s important to be honest about the reality of these things. I would also caution about putting too much weight on stories that come out after the draft. It’s human nature to frame the issue. This blog is more concerned about the reality of the situation.
Sail on, Pointe-Lévy Corsaires Bantam. We never got to know you, and we hope you find a home in your new town.
A busy show today, noon to 2 on Sports 1440. We’ll talk about the major change in the Elks front office yesterday and examine the Bakersfield Condors new roster. After a one day delay, we’ll also look at those Oilers general manager candidates, too. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Okay, here’s a wild trade idea that I will repost after the new article is up.
Codi Ceci +/- ? for Henry Jokiharju .
Why the Oilers do it?
Why the Sabres do it
I’ve always seen Jokiharju good. He’s only 25, so there’s projectable improvement to expect. He’s a subtle player that doesn’t do anything flashy.
I don’t think Jokiharju would cost much and if he doesn’t work, you need to make a move at the deadline.
The Sabres just signed him 2 weeks ago. Now they’re trading him? Not a great look for the org. Deadline sure.
Krug may miss the season, St Louis has 2 RD. Maybe a 3 team deal? It wouldn’t make sense for them to trade one of their 2 RD, I don’t like Faulk and they are both too expensive anyway
LT declined comment on the radio today…
Last night Ingrid Andress had an AutoTune fail, singing somewhere in the left field of F# while Antares was firmly rooted in the right field tonic of F major.
Hey, it happens: when nervous singers push they typically go sharp. Especially if their in-ears are assaulting their basilar with the velocities of a Paul Keynes fastball.
But the real problems originated in the production meetings for the event. Maybe well-timed fireworks during the anthem was a perfect choice. But the choice of accompaniment for a weak vocalist under the influence of a songwriting degree from Berklee was definitely a poor one.
“Let y’all know how rehab is I hear it’s super fun.”
The cover-up, brilliant to the outsider, leaves the victims of aural assault feeling sympathy for the poor country artist who has a tear in their beer. But to the real friends of Bill W, who are many and powerful in Nashville, the apology reads as disingenuous and as fake as the portamento in Buy U A Drank.
Michiganders might very occasionally say “y’all” but they don’t tweet it; and maintaining anonymity means something to those in the rooms. Certainly the first step should never be used as an excuse for tripping-up on the Opry stage.
Her daddy ain’t an MLB coach, but where’s Hawk Tuah Girl when you need her? Were she given the anthem there would have been authentic fun, and real drunkenness, and of course an evening of commentary replete with innuendo about “the third coach base not waving you in.”
Don’t get me wrong. I am worried about Andress. But not because of the factors that led her to the masquerade that is popular music in the home of brave. I’m worried because of the twilight approaching. If she does need rehab she should be worried about her life, not her career. And I can guarantee you one thing: it ain’t f-ing fun.
With respect, to be honest, I have no idea what the meaning of this post is or the message its trying to get across.
What i do know, with absolute certainty, is that the disease of addiction is real and its relentless.
I don’t know her actual circumstances. I don’t know if she suffers from the disease or not but, if she does, I wish her luck in her personal journey of recovery – its not easy, nor fun.
There’s a lot of things you don’t understand.
So I will simplify them for you: that was not drunken singing. That’s what happens when AutoTune is in a different key than the key that the singer is trying to sing in. It happens a lot in popular music, particularly with poor singers on stage. She’s lying about drukenness being the cause of the poor performance on the advice of handlers – handlers who include her father who was an MLB coach. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have a problem.
She tweeted: “Let y’all know how rehab is I hear it’s super fun.”
Really OP, you need to stop treating this space like it’s your own.
I don’t know why you felt the need to post what you did, all the power to you, but to be brutally honest, it’s not the type of comment I normal pay attention to. I do not recognize the names you used, nor am I interested.
However, your last sentence directed at OP got my attention. I am trying to be as respectful as I can here, but that sentence could easily be directed at yourself.
Peace
“don’t know why you felt the need to post what you did,”
Lowetide broached the topic on his radio show, then backed away.
I don’t comment that much, and I don’t police comments from others. Thanks.
Hold the phone.
I had to lie about drunkenness being the cause of poor performance one time… maybe two…
This is great writing though Daniel, but not an area I know much about.
I, once again, have no idea what you are trying to get at.
You feel the need to police this space like it’s your own. It’s not. Stop policing.
If I had to bet I’d bet she was lying too but I don’t care. Just stop with anthems at sporting events. It’s unnecessary and anyone who’s isn’t indoctrinated yet isn’t going to be by playing a national anthem at a sporting event.
Nation anthems: Good Lord if you aren’t standing at attention you’re a monster — unless you’re watching on TV, then you can sit there and listen with your hand in your pants and chip crumbs on your chest.
Anthems are the original virtue signaling. Nationalist chest-thumping and dick-waving.
I’m good with Bougault getting a fresh start. Maybe Lavoie needs one as well
Lavoie would likely get a better opportunity to make an NHL club in various other organizations but, unlike Bourgault, while still highly inconsistent, Lavoie has improved and makes positive impacts at the AHL level and is pounding on the door of NHL opportunity – Bourgault has, well, not come close to that.
I am becoming convinced that rhd will ne solved in a trade with a young player going back.
Ie Broberg for Faber from Minny.
Keeps cost low and addresses right vs left.
Gotta pay to get the needs filled.
You need to rein in your expectations.
Brock Faber led all Wild players in TOI as their established #1D at age 21.
He was also a finalist for the Calder Trophy and got dozens of first place votes despite being up against Connor Bedard.
He’s not going anywhere.
Yeah, there’s no chance that Faber gets moved at all.
Jackson will have to get creative because there’s a fair amount of demand for right-handed d among contenders and not much available.
Of the teams that missed the playoffs last year, many are trying to take steps forward (Utah, Ottawa, New Jersey, Buffalo, even Seattle.)
Which teams aren’t even trying yet? San Jose, Calgary.
Chicago and Anaheim will probably be bad.
Which teams are likely will to trade a top 4 RHD in that they won’t be competing for the playoffs? Which teams, if any have a surplus?
Some speculation today that San Jose may sign Tyson Barrie to run their PP.
They’ve loaded up with young forwards through the draft with Celebrini, Will Smith, William Eklund but lack a PP QB and they just let Calen Addison go UFA when they didn’t qualify him.
Neat!
I hope you’re correct. Barrie’s a good guy and he can still contribute on the PP. He’s not going to be in the top 6 of a contender, but he’s had a heck of a career for an undersized guy without great foot speed. He’s a cerebral player that has overcome those shortcomings to play 12 seasons in the show and put up over 500 points. Good pro. SJ could use more guys like him.
Bougault is a pure winger, he lives along the boards and in his lane. He is the opposite of big Jessie who swooped across ice to disrupt, but was hard to find. You know where Borgault will be. He was good along the boards, quick outs, quick passes.
Being a pure winger, he needs a good center.
His step back coincided with the coaching change. It happens, as does injury.
Also, he is just not big. He will not be a power forward and this is absolutely a thing with the Oilers right now. They recognize one of the reasons they come up short the past two seasons. I feel he will recover and get better, but he wont get big, and that is a large reason they are trading him in for 6’3″ forward. Its the plan.
Both of Bourgault’s seasons were under Chaulk (Chalk replaced Woodcroft mid way thought the previous season before Bourgault turned pro).
Otherwise, I agree with your post. Change of scenery, and Bourgault is not going to be a power forward.
Jackson was on the Bob Mckown podcast today – I’m still working my way through it but he did say he’s talked to a number of candidates and there should be a hire in the next 7-10 days. He doesn’t want the GM job as he isn’t at a place where he can be with the team full time but he is an “active CEO” and involved in the day to day.
That’s really too bad, I’ve liked what he’s done so far
As long as he can recognize a person that can do what he did. The thinking part it looks like he will still be involved in, but not everyone is good at negotiating or ‘selling’ good deals and contracts. Pretty obviously given the massive swing in things in a couple of weeks
He did say that he is an active CEO involved in the day to day.
I think he’ll remain be very involved in all player transactional matters.
I like that Jackson recognizes this.
Holland to me gets a lot of credit for getting the people and systems in place. This year there was pent up energy from these folks to get their picks, their free agents, their youth recruitment. It exploded.
All that information flow I think Holland should get a lot of credit for. Thing is, he was not instrumental to act on that information flow.
Jackson pulled the trigger, made things happen. He negotiations made easier by recent success but many of these moves still creative, turning up opportunity.
What he needs in a new GM is another person who knows how to capitalize, be creative. As he knows what he wants to see, I think he goes internal with the hire and stays involved.
— said this before I’m not a big believer in “remote” CEOs. I can think a few times in my career where hotshots get hired but don’t actually move and it never works out.
— Maybe hockey culture is different: I wouldn’t want to work for someone who isn’t putting on the same office hours the rest of management is. He’s not the chair of the board: he’s presumably interacting with the management team daily and should be grinding IMO
This is management of a professional sports team and straight and direct comparisons to other types of businesses are not necessarily productive.
The CEO of hockey team is not akin to the CEO of an oilfield services company, for example.
Also, not being physically “in the office” does not mean that one is not grinding and i think we can give Jackson the benefit of the doubt regarding how much grinding he is willing to do.
— I think a more collaborative professional environment is a more appropriate analogy than an oil fields service company (whose clients are all off-site).
— anyway it’s just my perspective: capital markets guy. I can’t imagine the president not being present daily as part of the culture:
— Doubt there are many presidents of other professional sports organizations that don’t live in the team town. If I recall Chia didn’t live full-time in Edmonton.
— Doesn’t take away from what he’s done to date: but it sets a tone IMO. Will see over time.
— There was a good interview with Horowitz who’s been one of few nice things to happen to the Jays this season. He was a mid to late teen draft pick (we are talking rounds)
— He was alluding to “math” and how in baseball scouts get enamoured with players who have 1 or more 60+ rankings on ability: hitting speed arm, etc, body type projections, frame, etc.
— So he didn’t have those plus ratings he just “knew how to play baseball and get hits”
— Math doesn’t help get whether a guy actually has game. Are they athletes? Are they actually hockey players? What is their work ethic? Their desire? IQ? Resiliency ? Does their upbringing either good or bad give them a leg up.
— “Math” no doubt very over rated save for all but the best draft picks IMO. Even those: all these other variables contribute and explain the difference between success and fail. Some you can due diligence some you can only look back at.
— that’s not to say “just draft good guys and ignore the math”. Rather the variance in outcomes outside of the clear top probably has a lot more to do with all those other factors.
Agreed. The smart piece to me of what LT does is that he doesn’t have a scouting department and a million contacts
The math does inform a lot of aspects of a player. Any player that makes the NHL outside of a small few will be stand out players in lower leagues. In any sport. Their production speaks to skill, durability, at least some drive
But definitely you need more info to draft well. Sometimes the level of drive a player has to do very well because they are much more talented than peers still isn’t enough at the NHL level
Or they aren’t suited to the physical nature of the NHL, especially playoffs. Or they were very big and skilled so dominated peers, but can’t skate well enough to do it a step up. Lots of factors for sure
I like that now they are looking at competitiveness/assertiveness more. I think better NHL players are like that. Connor isn’t that way by being physical, but he is the most competitive player on the ice, every time he plays. Just like Wayne was
— yeah for sure it’s a good filter.
— You can’t as easily quantify all the things other than scoring eq when making selections but they are way more important in aggregate
— Reminds me a little of when MacT got all horned up in the Oil Change when he asked Hall why do you want to be the number 1 pick and Hall banality answered something to the effect of “because I want to be the best”
— Thar was all MacT needed to know to make his decision. So obviously you need some scouting that has individuals that can suss out all those other aspects while not ignoring the math
— some professional teams do all this “qualitative” stuff as well.
You do remember it was Tambellini who drafted the three 1OVs, right?
MacT had recently departed the organization at the time of the Hall draft, and would be coaching the AHL’s Chicago Wolves just following the Nuge draft.
— yeah that’s right. It was the wrong gh$t eating grin I remember from that oil change.
— Just recall how silly it was that based on some trite answer you could tell the Oil knew they had their man.
— reminded me of MacTs “tenure”. The only head coach in hockey to get fired from a team only to come back and promoted to GM (with no experience, but hey you got a lot of losing seasons under your belt as coach why don’t you try GMng!)
I’ve long agreed with this … “math” doesn’t adequately explain the Zach Hyman’s of the NHL that keep developing long past their draft selection into star players, while other guys in their peer group who stood out based on pure numbers alone on their draft day don’t.
There is something to be said about the maturity needed to persevere at the highest levels and become that kind of star player that “math” doesn’t capture. In statistical language looking at NHL equivalencies does not have very strong positive predictive value.
But it is a pretty good filter for who not to draft … aka NHL equivalencies has much better negative predictive value.
Is this a thing that’s actually been looked at? Or just an idea?
An idea but one that’s rooted in a lifetime of Oiler fandom. We’ve known for a long time what LT has espoused … you don’t draft guys like Moroz in the second round. Might as well just give the pick away for free, cause a player like that simply doesn’t have the skill to be anything more than a career minor leaguer. If one bets against math in the first three rounds then you’re likely not going to have a very successful draft.
But math alone doesn’t guarantee success. Case in point … Arthur Kaliev … great numbers in junior … oodles of talent. But is struggling to consistently play a pro style game. Maybe he puts it together eventually but he’s 23 now and hasn’t really popped.
For me the value of statistics is that it gives you two perspectives from which to make a judgment which means that if the two views agree you have more certainty & if they differ you have a reason to dig deeper.
In the end I think a talented scout beats the stats & the stats beats the average eye test.
Well the whole point of hockey analytics is to look past things like arm speed, body type, projections, frame, work ethic, desire, etc.
Scouts fall in love with that kind of stuff all the time and maybe look past the fact that a player doesn’t actually get results.
The whole point of the analytics is to find the guys that “know how to play baseball and get hits.”
If a player’s mental make up helps him get results on the ice, then it should show up somewhere in the stats.
In hockey it is a lot harder to judge a player using stats than baseball, but the solution to that is to find better stats rather than throw out the whole process.
— just opinions but strongly disagree. Just as diablo says above: nothing in the “stats” explains why a Hyman outperforms while others with better “math” early don’t.
— Those quantitative things like the mental make up you cite, don’t show up in the math. That’s the whole point.
Why Hyman outperforms others didn’t show up in points.
Maybe it would have showed up in something like puck battles won.
We can’t really say whether or not analytics are currently being used to outperform at the draft table, because if some teams have found an edge, they aren’t sharing it.
Hyman has gotten better every year he’s been in the league. He’s the kind of outlier that NHL equivalencies at age 17-18 just can’t measure. One would have needed a crystal ball to predict that a 5th round pick from the OJHL was going to score 50+ goals in his age 31 season.
How do you quantify leadership? Pre-game speeches per 60? How about determination, resilience, focus? It’s exactly these qualitative areas that many teams in the NHL seems to be behind on. Experienced scouts are also pretty damn good pattern recognition machines who can synthesize a lot of disparate information into a meaningful results.
The 2022 draft with it’s lack of games was a year when this type of information was most valuable. Some teams adapted and excelled while others just doubled down on even more limited data set. I would have traded out for instead of down to be honest if a good deal was available.
Bourgault could turn it around – he has pedigree – but it’s much likelier to happen in a new environment than in the Oilers system IMO.
This looks like another great, logical trade. A guy falling down the depth chart and who had burned through opportunities, not scoring like an NHL option, for a guy with injury concerns but who is projectable as a complementary NHL winger and is much more likely to get games in Edmonton this year. If nothing else, the depth is improved.
Toss in a 4th round pick and clearing up a spot on the 50 man (those ECHL total for an NHL contract are ghastly, hope this helps Chiasson too), this looks like a nice piece of work.
I understood the rationale of taking Bourgault over the goalie at the time although I don’t think I was in favour of it – he’d be more likely to help during the current Draisailt and McDavid contracts – but 3 years out and it’s actually the goalie who looks like he could maybe help at the NHL level this year.
Wallstedt fell in our laps. Goalies are a crapshoot but when one of Jesper’s pedigree is there on the board you take him. Bourgault will become a utility winger at best where Jesper was always tracking to be a top a 10-15 homegrown cheap stopper. Jesper was the safe and smart pick in our draft hole. There’s a reason Wright was let go when Jackson hired on.
Yep – Wallstedt becoming an NHL goalie was as sure a bet as anyone in the draft at that point in the draft. Goalies that can play in the NHL within 5 years of their draft are quite rare. Even if he doesn’t become an elite goalie right away, that draft pedigree will keep his value high for years. Always draft best player available.
Not sure if he’s been mentioned in connection with our GM vacancy, but Vaughn Karpan’s name was tossed around a bit in connection with Calgary before they hired Conroy. He’s the Assistant GM – Player Personnel of VGK and was a longtime scout who was the Canadiens director of scouting. We’ve all noticed how unorthodox Vegas has been over the years…he could bring an interesting perspective. (Bonus points for being a Western Canadian guy)
If Jackson isn’t going to be directly involved in the day to day, whomever they hire needs to be a deal maker first or able to make that happen, willing to move on problems or weaknesses quickly and reasonably, and run the cap well, not deplete the system and leave it there
It’s always a fluid situation and things can change fast in a lot of ways, so to me those skills are paramount to keep things going as well as possible. There is no time to waste, never was, but especially now
That is where they have been weak for so long until Jackson. The player assessments and drafting have been ‘on par’ from what they were, getting better through Holland’s 5. I’m not sure what Karpan’s skill set is, but that’s what I would like to see and keep this train rolling
Jackson said just today (on the Bob M. podcast) that we is a very active CEO and involved in the day to day.
I presume that he will remain involved in all player transaction decisions.
Kind of like Puljujarvi, Järventie was part of a Finnish super line at the world juniors. In 2022 Finland lost to Canada in the final, but Järventie had 4g 5a, Räty had 3g 7a and Kemell 4g 8a. Both of the other guys just finished pretty good seasons in the AHL, so it will be interesting to see which one ends up being the Aho.
There’s always an Aho in every bunch.~
And if you can’t tell who it is….
There is no Aho.
Puljujarvi is the only one of the original three who played even one game in the AHL. And all three of the younger crew have already blown past his career total.
When I see all the aggressiveness from the revamped front office, I feel confident that this group is gonna find a shrewd and inventive way to upgrade the back end in time for the playoffs. I have zero doubt that it’s on their to-do list.
Anybody else impressed that the Oilers are supposedly engaged in a search for a new GM and there really hasn’t been a peep out of the media on who has been interviewed or who is lined up to interview?
I know there was the obligatory Bowman kerfuffle & people have mentioned contenders but to my knowledge not one legitimate report of any actual activity.
As anxious as I am to know who is being hired I always think that an organization that can keep information internal until they are ready to announce is a sign that it is well run.
And I just heard our host here announce on his show that he will be making his top 5 contender list known at 1:00 pm today for anybody interested.
His list of candidates:
#5 – Keith Gretzky
#4 – Brad Holland
#3 – Shawn Horcoff
#2 – Mark Hunter
#1 – Lawrence Gillman
5) Keith could have made some moves when he was AGM to restock the cupboards prior to the draft, and sat on his hands. Better suited for player development than GM, to me.
4) Analytics adjacent, not new to the scene, but no track record with primary decision making. Would not be surprised, nor inspired if he assumes the role.
3) Longish tenure with player development in DET. Good exposure to top flight execs and insight to how their processes differ. No idea on the deal making chops. Not my ideal candidate.
2) Well known for running the best franchise in best juniour league in the world. Rumours swirling. Previously mentioned as a candidate, before Holland was hired. I’m not averse to him coming aboard, but probably not my first choice.
1) Do not understand the hype – would genuinely appreciate if someone can spell out his appeal. His tenure in VAN was not inspired. Less enthused about the trajectory in TOR while he’s been there. WPG/PHX is self-explanatory dumpster fire.
My question is how do we get someone of Jeff Jackson’s calibre? Guy can make deals, runs a solid draft, builds a quality crew of management professionals at various levels, knows a ton about player development, analytics forward, etc. No complaints about his interim tenure so far. It’s too bad he doesn’t want the job himself.
All the talk about Paul Coffey as GM have quieted down, wonder if he’s still in the running.
Drafting from the QMJHL is problematic as the numbers / math from this league do not seem to translate except for the really high draft picks.
NHLe from Frozen Tools – 40 pts in 40 games
WHL: 25
OHL: 26
QMJHL: 23
In the five (5) drafts from 2017 to 2020, twenty-one (21) forwards from the Q were taken in the first two rounds. Excluding players taken with high lottery picks (top 6), there were 17 taken (7 in RD1 and 10 in RD2).
Of the seven (7) RD 1 players taken:
There is only one (1) who has hit it out of the park:
A couple of ‘OK’:
The rest of the first-rounders are busts.
Of the second-rounders, Comtois at #50 in 2017 (211 gms 38-49-87) is the only one to cover the bet.
Need to stop drafting in the Q for scoring forwards except for the high end.
I haven’t looked at the value charts for picks in a long while, but isn’t the expectation something like a 20-30% chance that a mid- to late-first round pick turns into more than an average NHLer? Especially if you’re excluding the top picks, I imagine this performance isn’t that far out of line with what you might expect.
Good stuff!
Now do all the leagues 😀
One thing that we may want to focus in on is the even strength scoring in the AHL and that is where Jarventie currently towers over Bourgault I believe.
As an aside to that, this is also an area where Lavoie stagnated last season a bit I believe – coach Chaulk spoke about him needing to create more at 5 on 5 and not be reliant on the PP as much.
Coach Chaulk needs to really start focusing on developing players for the Oilers and quit giving the good assignments to career tweeners. I give him to the end of the year – if he does not change I would expect JJ to make a change.
With respect, do you watch the Condors games on a nightly basis?
Coach Chaulk 100% provides opportunities up the lineup and on special teams for the real prospects. Pehaps the rope is a bit shorter in certain cases (but the short rope is generally due to repeating mistakes and mistakes made out of lack of effort).
Noah Philp started as a 4th line winger and healthy scratch and spent a good portion of the second half of that season as the 1C.
Ty Tulio saw legit top 6 time and PP1 during stretches of last season when he was playing well and earning.
Lavoie asked for PK time when he was re-assigned and received it – his overall game suffered and he was taken off the PK to focus on creating at 5 on 5.
If anything, Bourgault was given too much rope given his stagnation and ineffectiveness in tough areas of the ice.
———-
Jeff Jackson seems to be over-hauling the prospect group and is clearly engaged in Bakersfield (player development has always been a bit part of his skill-set) but he re-hired (or agreed to re-hire if Gretzky was the main guy) Colin Chaulk. That seems like a very unlikely move if he had issues with the way the Condors had been run in recent years.
He is a lousy coach at developing players. Zilch so far. All the guys who have transitioned so far are 1st round draft picks, or products of Woodcroft/Manson.
One of your favorites, Raphael Lavoie, would probably disagree – he floundered under Woodcroft and re-established himself as a real prospect under Chaulk.
Noah Philp would also likely disagree with you.
I know you a smart guy and know hockey but I also know that you don’t watch the Condors games. I challenge you to spend the U.S.$60 this season and take the time to watch the games and see how Chaulk actually runs his team.
Good coaches win games in the AHL, and graduate prospects. Chaulk’s teams have show little, and there is nothing in Chaulk’s pedigree that suggests he is a good coach.
Good coaches lose games – the dude that just won the Stanley Cup has lost the most games in NHL history.
In Chaulk’s first full season as Condors’ coach, he put Raphael Lavoie back on the radar as a real prospect, he took Noah Philp (an undrfated CIAU player) from 4th line winger to 1C and on the cusp of NHL employment and he developed Michael Kesselring from a d-man that only a handful of Oilers’ fans had really hear of to NHL player.
Not to mention getting James Hamblin 40 plus NHL games.
One thing to consider is the coaches don’t populate the team the GM does
If you have Malone etc there they also need TOI. This summer the path has been cleared, Bourg, C Savoie moved out, to give the young guys opportunities for key roles
Gregor has a Chaulk Talk up at ON, I think he’s on it
I think the org and the fan base might need to show some patience with Jarventie.
We know his season was cut short in November and he had knee surgery. It wasn’t a Connor Brown type thing where he tore ligaments but a nagging thing he got fixed, however, he still has not skated in full equipment – this was put out on The Oil Stream yesterday where Dusty and Tommy had the host of Locked on Sens on.
Who knows if he’ll be fully ready for training camp bit, in any event, his summer will be continued rehab vs. full hockey training.
I hope the fam base doesn’t call the player a bust if he has a rough first half in Bako.
This fan-base just watched Brown go through series knee surgery and some (most?) were ready to shoot him to Robidas Island up until March, 2024. He finally got his mojo, confidence and speed back for the playoffs. It took over 18-months!
With this experience, no expectations for Jarventie until training camp 2025. Bar is low for this year – hope he exceeds it!
I heard that as well. He has hardly been skating at all. It looks doubtful he will be skating in any significant way by camp.
January 10th was Jarventie’s last game, actually. I also heard the interview with that “Locked on Sens“ guy, and he was talking out of his @$$ just a little bit…
Fair enough – I took him at face value as, well, I don’t know anything about the player or his history.
Seems a pretty damning trade for how Bakersfield is run. You have a kid with talent and promise and he gets stuck on third line minutes with a bunch of grinders.
Something has to give with the new GM, if we can’t keep seeing Griffith and Caggiula given the high end 5×5 ice time over Savoie and Jarventie. Bakersfields first priority need to be developing out prospects, not pushing AHL lifers and grinders
Throwing a prospect to the wolves against men before you’ve fully developed is another way to look at it. Sink or swim is not the point. Keeping confidence and teaching the kids how to be pros if those habits are lacking should be top priority. Many college kids get that experience but the resources aren’t there for many junior clubs (London aside).
There’s also a scarcity issue. What high offensive player can you pair with X that plays in the A and hasn’t bailed to Europe or Russia for the better paycheque and (by accounts), higher amenity lifestyle? The Brad Malone’s of the world are coveted for exactly that reason.
Apropos to say the CHL development model is incredibly dated and puts the kids coming from it at a steep disadvantage unless you’re at a high end program. Here’s hoping the CHL College gap can be bridged and they get more development time before having to ride the bus through ‘The Jungle’
I agree. You can make an analogy with the Oilers. Not very long ago it seemed like every prospect that was brought up to the team would struggle, as the expectations placed on them were far too high. But now that the Oilers are a winning team, it’s magically as if every prospect that comes up is some brilliant draft pick.
The same could be said for the Gretzky Oilers. They had a bunch of iffy players that the rest of the NHL wasn’t certain would turn into great players, but having the shelter of an elite team, they developed fantasically.
Sometimes its on the player.
Bourgault started his AHL career in the top 6 and with PK time and PP2 time. He was given a TON more rope than any of the other young prospects.
Bourgault was passed for ice time, on occasion, by the likes of Philp, by the likes of Tulio and by the likes of Cameron Wright – because they all earned shots up the lineup with their play.
I do think Chaulk could have done a better job with his PP deployment but the vitriol he received on his lineup deployment is often uninformed.
One reason I’ve heard is he put on a bunch of weight the previous summer to bulk up and he did not adjust well to the extra pounds and maybe a bit less breakaway speed.
At this level, small adjustments can have big impacts. You patch a hole to better handle the rigors of Pro hockey and you end up not the player you have been for years.
Maybe he slims down and gets that high skill avoidability back. Maybe he learns to play in his bigger body better.
In any case, sail on and good luck.
I hope Larsson makes an impact here. Connor has had world class help with off season training. The regular young guys I’m not sure what they were getting
There are different ways to get stronger, and just adding bulk isn’t great for such an aerobic sport if that’s what happened
I’ve heard NHL guys referring to the young guys as having chicken legs. To me priorities should be leg strength first because leg strength is where the first steps and being solid on your skates comes from, then improving skating technique which most seem to need, then try to get stronger upper body