The Process

by Lowetide

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Ryan

Thinking outside of the box, here’s a wacky trade idea.

Codi Ceci +/- ? for Henry Jokiharju .

Why the Oilers do it?

  1. We already know Nurse -Ceci doesn’t work. Try something new.
  2. The joker is $150k cheaper on the cap.
  3. Jokiharju is right-handed. 
  4. plays 18:58 per night.
  5. decent puck iq elites relative to team last year.

Why the Sabres do it 

  1. Both contracts align close in cap
  2. Both contracts expire in 1 year
  3. Ceci can regale the sabres with stories of the playoffs, Draisaitl playing through broken ribs, and Connor McDavid.
  4. The Sabres won’t make the playoffs either way.
  5. Ceci averaged a minute more per game last year.

I’ve always seen Jokiharju good. He’s only 25, so there’s projectable improvement to expect. He’s a subtle player that doesn’t do anything flashy. 

I don’t think Jokiharju would cost much and if he doesn’t work, you need to make a move at the deadline.

Jokiharju has a better first pass than Ceci.

Too lateral move?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I don’t hate it. After scouring puckpedia, there are not many good solutions for acquiring a natural RHD.

Scungilli Slushy

If he gaps tight do it!

Ceci is the type of player that looks like he’s doing good things but is lacking at the most important things a D does, like break outs

He’s not a bad player, he made some heads up passes in the playoffs, it’s the overall body of work. Like Tippet said about the awesome defensive D he had in Arizona that they ended up moving. He was good defensively, it’s just he was always defending ie – not good enough defending entries and moving it out, hemmed in too much

Scungilli Slushy

I also keep wondering, given the dearth of RD options, is there no experienced RD in Europe, Japan or England that might be able to handle 2RD in the NHL? That can skate, gap and make a pass? Is every single one over here or not good enough?

godot10

No way Buffalo does it.

Ryan

No way Buffalo does it.

Most of the Buffalo blogs view Jokiharju as player that they’ll sell at the deadline. He carries a bit of injury risk as well. From reading their blogs, I don’t think he’s projected as a long-term solution for them.

Teams love that veteran influence who’s had a recent taste of playoff hockey.

Jokiharju doesn’t show up as a world-beater by any metrics.

Buffalo would absolutely trade him, it always just a question of cost. I don’t think you’d have to add too much to Ceci for the deal to work, but that’s a matter of opinion.

There’s also the view of team fit.

Ceci doesn’t work well with Nurse, because neither player makes good outlets.

Buffalo has Byram, Dahlin, and Power, just an embarrassment of talented left handed puck movers, so that’s not a concern for them.

Ceci is more durable, bigger, and might be a better fit for Buffalo.

€√¥£€^$

The solution should be in the form of a cheaper player in the offseason, so I don’t see He Joki as a viable target. I think the player would have to be cheaper and they would come in as a 3rd pairing RHD.

I scoured every roster and considered 41 players, then crossed out LHD.

*Warning: This is not an exciting list….

Here are who I think could be considered as targets from lowest to highest salary:

Gustav Lindstrom UFA
John St. Ivany 3x $775,000
Nick Blankenberg. 2x $775,000
Grant Hutton 1x $775,000
Ronnie Attard 1x $850,000
Max Crozier 1x $867,000
Daniil Miromanov 1x $1,250,000
Michael Kesselring 2x$1,400,000

I really like Miromanov as a target. And Kesselring would be an exciting add for me, with still lots of room for growth.

€√¥£€^$

In the end, as OP speaks to, the solution (3rd pair RHD) might already be inside the house in Kemp.

My preference is a puck-mover, but those are hard to come by.

Ryan

The solution should be in the form of a cheaper player in the offseason, so I don’t see He Joki as a viable target. I think the player would have to be cheaper and they would come in as a 3rd pairing RHD.

There’s literally no chance you head into the playoffs with Ceci as your 2RD again.

Broberg looked the part, but we’ll have to see how he fares on his off wing.

As I’ve said before, Broberg looked like our 3rd best defenseman during the the playoffs, but he actually had the lowest average toi/game and the worst xgf%.

You’ve posted a lot of names I have never heard of (which is good), but I don’t image any of them could move the needle at 2RD.

€√¥£€^$

I didnt speak to it, but I doubt a 2 RHD can be had.

I see the path forward as:

Ek Bouch
Doc Bro
Kulak Cheap RHD

AsiaOil

There are so few options which is why drafting a ton of these guys is a great thing to do. I’ve looked at the options over and over – and feasible options are few – Risto in Philly and Larsson in SEA (only at TDL if SEA is out). I know I’m not alone being sour on giving up Kesselring a year ago for a few weeks of Bjugsted.

But the good news is that we have an elite 1RD and Ceci is decent enough as a 2/3RD. Wanner is coming. Ceci is actually a pretty high-end 3RD if over-paid. The problem has been Nurse and his inability to push the river with a mediocre (but still decent) RHD partner. At $9.25 million cap hit a year he absolutely has to do this.

OriginalPouzar

I think we might see some:

Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg

AsiaOil

Sure it makes sense to see how that goes on both top pair. If it works it sure fixes some problems with Ceci-Kulak a very strong 3rd pair (if wildly over-paid). Have to see how we address the cap to do that though.

The Great One

I’m beginning to wonder if Laurence Gillman might be the logocial top candidate for the GM job.

It seems that he and Jeff Jackson could share a lot of progressive ideas on maximizing team performance.

When he was VP of Hockey Ops in Vancouver he and Mike Gillis instituted a raft of moves aimed at using non-cap dollars to boost results.”

“Gillis doesn’t want to talk about details, but hints that parts of the puzzle have percolated over the past year or two. Some pieces: the deal (exclusive in hockey to the Canucks) with Fatigue Science, a sleep-management company that uses technology created by the U.S. military; a radical on-ice deployment strategy of certain players, such as the Sedins, who start an inordinate number of shifts in the offensive zone; the use of advanced statistics, far beyond plus-minus and goals for and against, to assess potential player acquisitions; the analysis of fatigue through games, using data and academic research from sports such as soccer; a special juice for players formulated by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles; compression machines to flush lactic acid from tired legs; psychological counselling from MindRoom Sports Science Inc.”

The above is from a Canucks Army article that featured Craig McTavish’s impressions after he spent a year in the Canucks organization coaching their then farm team the Chicago Wolves.

MacT himself was a bit dubious:

The one thing I got from Vancouver was be open-minded, seek out new ideas, try and give yourself as much of a competitive advantage as you can. But at the same time there’s definitely a balance there. Sometimes you can go to far, and demand too much of your players that they’re burned out. And I think that’s something we really have to be careful about in the NHL in general

That Gillman resigned from his position as Senior VP of Hockey Operations with the TML at the end of the season could also be a tell.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Maybe Jackson can trade for Werenski before he hands the reins over. Do it! Coward!

Reja

Nine months ago I thought we would see a tandem of Coffey-Jackson as G.M. The minute the Oilers swapped 1st rounders and chose O’Reilly I switched over to the Mark Hunter camp but since it’s taking so long to name the new G.M I’m now thinking it’s a younger less known candidate.

DevilsLettuce

Paul Coffee or Geoff Jackson is my bet, for those concerned about location Geoff already lives in the headquarters in spirit.

OriginalPouzar

Jeff Jackson has said multiple times, including yesterday, he will be hiring a GM that is not him.

Jeff Jackson is meeting with Paul Coffey this week to see if he is willing to come back as coach – Coffey also live in Toronto with him family there and business interests out east. He agree to coach for a year as a favor to the org – i don’t see him interested in an even more involved job.

OriginalPouzar

Its interesting, looks like the Condors are going to be very veteran on the back-end and have a bit of a youth movement at forward.

On defence, from last year’s group they have “lost”, Niemo and Broberg (who certainly is done with Bako) but are bringing back most of the vet gang (Dineen, Gleason, Peters, Hoeffenmayer, etc.).

They have also added Connor Carick and its likely that Josh Brown will, at least start, in Bako and maybe even Troy Stecher will be there at time.

Only really Wanner and Kemp and Kemp COULD pass Brown and Stecher on the call-up depth chart, could.

There are some vets coming back up front like Griffith (AHL deal) and Caggiula but McKegg and Malone are gone and they didn’t add any real vets to fill those roles.

Tulio, C. Savoie and Bourgault replaced with youth in M. Savoie, Roby J. and James Stephan.

Philp is a bit older but still a young pro.

I expect the likes of Petrov and Grubbe to get bigger roles this season.

Scungilli Slushy

They are quite a skilled team, but with the A being a pretty rough league they seem somewhat vulnerable, not many big and tough players. I guess if Brown is down there that helps

DexandRuby

This is everything Ryan Holt said on LTs show yesterday. Great listen if anyone missed it.

dulock

I’m curious as to Jackson’s timeline of 7-10 days for a new GM. That would imply that they’ve already met with everyone they want and are in the “final decision” phase and not the “final interviews” stage. Given that we haven’t heard about anyone interviewing either they’re playing things incredibly closely or we’re about to see someone hired they are very familiar with.

defmn

Or he has known for months who he wanted to hire, everything was arranged and the wait is all about optics.

Pardon my cynicism. It comes from watching how it is done at the top end in government. 😎

Gerta Rauss

I would think some of the ‘secrecy’ surrounding the hire might be related to Jackson being in Toronto

I get that some/most of the interviews would have been done remotely, but at some point the principles involved would meet face to face, and we’re not getting the “my buddy works at YEG and he just saw so and so get off the plane’ type of intel trickling out

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

LT, I feel like this is a list of who you think the Oilers top Candidates are in order, and if that’s the case what how does it differ from a lost of who YOU would like the top Candidates to be?

YYCOil

I am not sure I am seeing the Jeff Jackson leadership the same as many on this site. I am NOT loving that he has not moved to Edmonton!

My off-season issues to address were;

1.New GM to ensure the club transitions from a very experienced Ken Holland.
2.Shore up the Right Side of our defense.
3.Secure a backup goalie, in case they have to play +40 games
4.Shore up 5×5 scoring with the perfect winger for Leon
5.More “snarl” to our overall game.

On my list as of July 17, we have the 4th priority checked in spades and very little on the other priorities.

Elgin R

#3 is covered with the signing of Calvin ‘Captain’ Pickard

2023 / 2024
Reg Season: .909 / .245
Playoffs: .919 / 2.21

The above are fine #s for a backup (or even a starter for some teams). Also, showed he can play high-pressure situation playoff hockey.

YYCOil

If Skinner had a long-term injury, I would not feel comfortable with Pickard as my starter for 66% of the games.

dulock

Pickard has already put up a season of 50 games at a .904 behind a much worse team. Skinner’s .905 last season was good enough to contend for the division lead. Pickard is ideal as a backup and Rodrigue will likely be able to hold his own as well. Number 1 will be done soon, number 2 is a deadline move and 4 and 5 (yes, even 5) have been done.

Mayan Oil

And your point is??? The same could be said for large majority of teams if their starter went down…

Pretendergast

1.That’s gonna happen, you’d rather they rush that decision?
2.Top 4RHD is what you mean because there’s plenty of righties on the roster who can likely hold it down until deadline day. Ceci, for all the warts, still played every game for a team that reached game 7.
3.Pickard
4.Skinner + Arvi
5.The Oilers are already very filthy from the top down and traded the one guy not named Nuge who wasn’t. Arvi is filthy, Jarventie and Savoie have ‘snarl’. Raffi Torres is a phonecall away.

It’s wildly ironic to me the perfect solution to 2RHD is down the road and by all accounts they refuse to deal with us no matter the return. Hoping for a Hoffman situation.

Mayan Oil

#3 is filled with signing Pickard. #4 done twice over. #5 is evidenced by recent prospect trades, more to come. #1 is in process and expected to be completed in 7-10 days. #2 is waiting on new GM hire and clarification of Kane injury situation. Lots already accomplished, and Rome wasn’t built in a day. Hold your water, indications are good things will continue to come this offseason.

Last edited 4 months ago by Mayan Oil
kinger_OIL

— yeah there are a few of us who have tremendous reservations about the CEO not working out of HQ.

— Chia apparently didn’t. It’s sub-optimal. It would be unacceptable in leaf nation for them not to live here, or Masai being remote. Or any major team in professional sport in North America to not be there.

— It doesn’t take away from what’s been done but it’s sub-optimal no matter how strong one’s fan allegiance is. Most organizations wouldn’t accept it. Full Stop.

defmn

I have no idea who the new GM will be but I do have questions about the division of responsibility and authority between the new hire and Jackson.

To forestall Godot’s assertion that the new management model is collaborative – which I agree with – there remains, always, the question of who is in charge of what and at what point does that decision making power evaporate.

This is, after all, the reason for Holland’s departure imo. With his resume he was unlikely to be interested in continuing on in what has essentially been reduced to the position of AGM after so many years as a GM.

The last month, in particular, has to have left the field of those interested or approached with the impression that what is being offered is a middle management position in spite of the title it would carry.

So who will be in charge of what?

Will this be a Shanahan/Dubas situation? It certainly appears so. If so, would Mark Hunter or Larry Gilman be interested having already witnessed how that turned out? Likewise it would seem a lateral move for Horcoff in many ways. Not being in charge while being responsible is the curse of middle management positions as anybody who has held one well knows.

I don’t have a name to offer but I wonder if the new person will be from the rank of agents – a pool Jackson is very familiar with.

How that plays out with the current AGM’s will be interesting to follow.

greenshifter

I doubt the $$$ will be a lateral move lol.

defmn

None of these guys is lining up at the food bank.

I can see one of the internal candidates accepting the position but I am not convinced that the others would.

I see Staples just posted his opinion that Lawton would be a good choice – an idea that has been mentioned by others as well. I have no idea what kind of relationship he has with Jackson.

Last edited 4 months ago by defmn
Scungilli Slushy

From things I’ve read over the years I don’t get the impression any GM is anything other than middle management

At least major deals are approved by the owner and/or someone higher up. Major decisions. It’s collaborative. But someone will have final authority if the owner doesn’t want to be actively involved and make those decisions like some are. There may be a couple of GMs making final decisions like Lou perhaps. But I don’t get the impression there are many

Jackson was made CEO to be above POHO, I wonder if he is going to do that job or also hire a POHO again, or give it to the New GM. It seems right now in hockey ops there is CEO Jackson, 2 special advisors, 2 alternate governors

We don’t know how they have set up their structure in terms of reporting and managing information. To me it seems good given what happened, so it always boils down for me to can this person go out and find what they need or direct it, and get good deals done? Like Jackson did?

kinger_OIL

— That’s another reason articulated different and better to why I fear an internal hire : it’s perhaps not as appealing job for someone external who doesn’t want to be a supplicant.

— By all accounts KK was a terrific hire: they clearly did their due-diligence and that he coached McD might have been a factor but he clearly had the right tools the team needed

— so maybe they don’t get a “name” GM but hopefully someone who has the tools but for all the reasons you cite it’s not a job for everyone and depending on who they get that’s perhaps a great opportunity.

— But the new GM is coming in after all the heavy lifting has been done : his “impact” would only be longer term, under a CEO who has shown acumen in the some of the job of a traditional GM

Scungilli Slushy

The work JJ did to me was work needing a timely response, but isn’t the hard work. The draft was Pracey, free agency was straight forward, they knew what they wanted and there were players wanting short term show me deals or wanting to stay

Trading non NHL players is low level stuff. McLeod was probably the hardest move

Dealing with cap issues, RD, Drai, Kane are bigger deals and I think more involved and more impactful. New GM will be busy with important work

OriginalPouzar

— By all accounts KK was a terrific hire: they clearly did their due-diligence and that he coached McD might have been a factor but he clearly had the right tools the team needed

I’m not sure this is actually true with regard to “clearly did their due diligence”. Its come out that Jeff Jackson has been talking about Knoblauck for years, lauding him as a future NHL coach, etc. Jackson had a ton of clients come through Eerie from back then.

If anything, that hire was Jackson hiring his guy, without doing a fulsome search.

defmn

That would be my take as well and is why I suspect he has known who he wants to hire as GM for some time and is just waiting for reasons of logistics or optics to make the announcement.

I mean, he has known he was going to have to hire a new GM for even longer than he knew he was going to have to hire a new HC.

OriginalPouzar

I tend to agree with this!

kinger_OIL

— of course we don’t know what we don’t know. I suppose it’s a good point in that he little time given the sh$t show to do a fullsome process.

— The “due diligence” done previously and JJ would have come to the conclusion that KK was his guy. Which is different than just reaching for someone.

— JJ his DD on KK..

One-Timer

So it will be Mike Liut after all, then.

godot10

NHL management is being professionalized. It is now big business.

POHO is the CEO. the GM is the COO. With various departmental operating officers.

The GM is NOT a freelancing or omnipotent position anymore, anywhere.

Essentially why Belichek was not offered a job anywhere in the NFL. No owner wants to take key man risk anymore in the GM position.

Last edited 4 months ago by godot10
defmn

Professionalized or bureaucratized.

Companies with CEO’s and COO’s usually have hundreds of employees if not thousands. NHL teams are more just small businesses with big bucks.

There’s a difference.

Last edited 4 months ago by defmn
kinger_OIL

— yeah that’s why a few bad hires scupper most organizations in hockey for a generation

— See MacT and Chia. Holland righted the ship but he was the wrong hire if you believed that prime McDrai ought to have won a Cup.

Munny 2.0

Thank you. I’ve said essentially the same thing a few times over the past year. It’s not going to be a major name under the structure DK and JJ have created. We’re just waiting to see who will be handling the thankless grinding end of the job and whether we have a media robust enough to extract what the boundaries are from the people involved.

And I agree. He has likely known for some time who he wants.

Everything he has done so far seems to scream OHL connections (which is a pretty big damn umbrella). I will be surprised if he brings in an outside voice. He will want someone who thinks like him and can speak for him when he’s not there.

OriginalPouzar

I mentioned yesterday that Jeff Jackson was on the Bob M. pod (with John Shannon) yesterday. I was still working through it but the main piece was that he was working his way through GM candidates and thinks the time from will be a week to 10 days so we are getting close.

I’ve worked my way through the pod and a few summaries:

1) As mentioned, working his way through GM candidates and decision should be within a couple of weeks.

2) On 1 above, he was pretty clear that he is “an active CEO” involved in the day to day.

3) He’s had some conversations with Mike Liut on the Drai contract and both sides are happy with the process and how its going. Once the new GM is in place “WE” will engage further – I note “we” and it sounds like Jackson will very much be involved.

4) When asked if Paul Coffey would be back the answer was along the lines of “I think so” but nothing official yet. He will sit down with Coffey this week and discuss. Its really up to Paul they do want him back.

5) They will be engaging George Mumford again this year – he developed some excellent relationships with various players.

6) Lots of talk about player development and building out the group under Kelle Larsson.

—————————

After Jeff left the pod, John Shannon did mention a few things on the GM. He mentioned that Bowman is in consideration and he also mentioned Mark Hunter as someone he thinks would be perfect (that 2nd part seemed opinion more than inside information).

I have a feeling we’ll see both Shawn Horcoff and Mark Hunter in this org – given Jackson’s clear focus on player development.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Who’s George Mumford?

defmn

I think he is the sports psychology guy.

OriginalPouzar

A fairly famous “Mindfulness and Performance” expert that was retained by the team for most of the year.

Apparently he would come to Edmonton once a month for about a week and also meet them on the road on occasion and was with the team for the entire playoff run.

From accounts, many players formed really impactful relationships with him – you can see him on the ice after game 6 vs. Dallas hugging some players.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Thanks guys, that’s a key cog to get right. Glad they seem to have done so.

defmn

Credit to an owner who cares more about winning than how much it costs.

Side

Some notable superstars Mumford has worked with:

-Michael Jordan
-Kobe Bryant
-Shaq

And I believe Jordan has publicly credited Mumford for helping him with his leadership abilities.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

In that case, I think Mumford can keep his sideburns… for now.

kinger_OIL

— The problem IMO with the last two names is their last two names.

— For sure they feel deserving of the shot. My bias though is that if they were applying for jobs outside this organization they would have topped out.

— Since Sather and Muckler I can’t think of an executive who after leaving the Oil got promoted up. (Except MacT who after many years of not making playoffs as coach he came back promoted as the GM with no experience, after a stint as AHL coach whose team didn’t make playoffs, and no merit, and mostly didn’t not make the playoffs but that’s Oil specific) Dallas Kruger Todd did become coaches again, deservedly so. But on the executive level the Oil don’t attract up and comers.

— will be interesting to see who they get. If it’s internal it’s because they chose a supplicant that can do JJs bidding while he’s remote. Hopefully they bring in someone whose skills augment what the current group has.

Last edited 4 months ago by kinger_OIL
Scungilli Slushy

I’m not too worried about the hire because Holland departed and Jackson did some good work. It looks like they have a distinct plan and some ability to get good things done. But this hire can’t be a dud, or wrong about things. They have wasted too much of Connor’s time already

Melman

Your comments on the last 2 names feels right, although I’m not in the room so what do I know. Good orgs avoid the Peter Principle and there’s nothing wrong with someone reaching their potential at “upper-middle management”. Keeping valuable people in those spots is important.

OriginalPouzar

— The problem IMO with the last two names is their last two names.

— For sure they feel deserving of the shot. My bias though is that if they were applying for jobs outside this organization they would have topped out.

The problem the second point is you come to that conclusion based on nothing but their names.

Perhaps if they had different last names they’d be even more successful as they are now.

kinger_OIL

— they came along in two different regimes and there is a new leader. That’s a tougher situation for any middle management. Neither were great “gets” when they were hired and make no mistake they were nepo hires.

— I can see why perhaps one of them gets the shot: as some have alluded to it’s not a GM position for someone who is used to or expects more autonomy. The existing group would feel pretty good about themselves and an internal hire would be very appealing.

— I don’t think either of them get AGM roles elsewhere (well unless Holland becomes GM in Columbus). The only GM role available to them is this one IMO.

OriginalPouzar

Maybe they were “nepo hires” although Brad Holland had various other positions in the league (including working for the league) and had resisted offers to work with his dad in the past but lets also make no mistake, the majority of hires in the NHL are neps hires – shit, the can go for many many business out there.

The Oilers current D-coach is a nepo hire – a move almost universally hated at the time it was made and almost universally lauded 8 months later.

Jeff Jackson turfed a previous nepo hire of Ken Holland pretty quick (Tyler Wright) and I think he’d have zero issues with turfing anyone in the org he doesn’t feel is doing the job.

At the end of the day, you posit that neither Keith Gretzky nor Brad Holland would be able to expand their careers outside of the Oilers organization and base that solely on their last names.

jimdewger

Regardless of who they choose, it sure seems like the front office has plotted an excellent direction for this team. I suspect that the GM will be hired because his vision fits within that.

Last edited 4 months ago by jimdewger
Jaxon

Matt Hendricks? Bryan Helmer? Troy Brodie? Pat Verbeek?

Jaxon

That sounds like work, haha. Hendricks, Helmer, and Brodie are all AHL GMs with some sort of Edmonton connection (some very tenuous)? Beyond that, I don’t know much about them except that Hendricks (and his cup) was a fan-favourite in Edmonton

Jaxon

Brodie (drafted by the Oilers and played in their farm system) is from Western Canada (Kelowna) and seems pretty well connected.

Jaxon

Helmer had a 2-year stint with the Oklahoma City Barons when he was assistant captain. And he won AHL Executive of the Year award in 2023.

Scungilli Slushy

I think Pat has a job

Scungilli Slushy

It’s early, I think he’s done a pretty good job. He’s in the same boat as DoD Oilers, not easy to get established players to balance the young players

Also, Cali state taxes are pretty bad, so he’s not getting any deals. Terry was a bit long for my liking, and a bit rich

Scungilli Slushy

Does Sather have any kids in hockey management? If we are going the familiar family route that’s my choice. The Elks should have hired Rick Campbell as well. Much better than what they have had

I of course jest. Except about Rick

Jaxon

Sather’s nephew, Graig Angarella, is the head coach at Rhode Island College in the ACHA II. His son, Justin, was a pro scout for the Rangers until 22-23. Not sure what he’s doing now.