One of the truths about Oilers fandom goes like this: When things are going well, people either lose interest or turn on each other on social media. Currently, the name of the general manager is enough to hold most people in check, but rest assured we’re just days away from thunder and lightning verbal. I can see it like a storm heading to Regina during mid-summer. That’s something you can track for hours.
Q AND A WITH THE GRUMPY GUY
The Oilers will never win with Darnell Nurse on the team! Okay, that seems a little ragey but let’s play. According to Natural Stat Trick, in the regular season Darnell Nurse played 1417 minutes at five-on-five last season, with a 50 percent goal share. His expected goal share (53.8 percent) is the number I choose to value more, but your mileage may vary.
He sucks! Especially with Cody Ceci! During the 2023-24 season, Nurse-Ceci went 53 percent goals and 53 percent expected goals. Nurse’s expected goals without Ceci (59 percent) was better, but he owned just a 43 percent goal share without Ceci.
So you’re saying they’re fine!!?!?! Ass!!!! I’m saying that during the regular season, a long period with ups and downs, against good and bad teams, the Nurse-Ceci duo succeeded above 50 percent. Perhaps a different pairing would have succeeded at a higher level, I don’t know. I think, based on the regular season, the pairing was less than a lightning rod issue. I know many disagree, mostly due to single events that impacted games. And of course, the playoffs were a different story.
So the playoffs were the issue? Yes, although we are getting into sample size issues and I am hesitant to use the results from individual series as a hammer. Nurse, during the entire playoffs, was 36 percent goal share and 42 percent expected goal share. That’s an absolute alarm bell. You can’t run that again next spring. You just cannot. It was 396 minutes too, so that’s enough (so say the experts) to draw a conclusion.
Was Ceci along for the ride? Nurse-Ceci played 170 of those 396 playoff minutes. They posted a 29 percent goal share with 35 percent expected (all of these numbers are five-on-five). Not close to good enough. Nurse without Ceci? 41 percent actual, 48 percent expected. Ceci without Nurse? 53 percent actual, 41 percent expected.
So Ceci got lucky and Nurse did not? A little bit, but 48 percent expected goals isn’t what you’re looking for from the No. 2 LH defenseman. You need better results. Ceci was fine on the third pair, I don’t think people question a Brett Kulak-Ceci third pair. It’s the second pair we’re thinking of right now.
Who did Nurse play well with during the playoffs? Small sample size alert. In 67 minutes with Philip Broberg, the duo was 4-2 goals but with an expected goal share of 30 percent five-on-five. Ugly expected, but it’s a small sample. In 10 minutes with Evan Bouchard, he was 2-1 goals with 84 percent expected goals. In 88 minutes with Vincent Desharnais, the results were 22 percent goal share and 53 percent expected goal share.
What is the solution? I think the Oilers have a smart group working on it and we’ll see. I suspect a trade is possible, and would suggest Nurse-Broberg should get 20 games this fall during the regular season.
Why not trade Nurse? The no-movement clause makes it impossible until summer 2027.
He’ll waive. If I were Nurse, the only way I agree to a trade is the Oilers no longer having a chance to win Stanley.
What is the solution? For me, I’ll be watching this impressive group of people working for the Oilers and possible solutions. Jeff Jackson’s innovations (please read the article above) are present and real. I think Jackson, Brad Holland, MIchael Parkatti and others will be burning the midnight oil looking for trade and obscure free-agent solutions.
What about the rest of us? Well, based on what I’ve seen, trading insults, calling people stupid, ignoring no-movement clauses and general crustiness would seem to be on the menu. I don’t blame anyone, problems with no obvious solution allow the mind to wander but frustration is the key driver. You could also tune in to the Lowdown today, noon to 2pm, Sports 1440. I’ll chat with Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk, and read your comments here and on the text line. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Jeff Jackson’s first year.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5645562/2024/07/19/oilers-ceo-jeff-jackson-impact/
Nurse’s offensive zone starts dropped to 40 percent in the 2024 playoffs. He doesn’t do well with that type of deployment, and Broberg on his off side might help, but won’t fix that problem.
Riders!
I love the(obsidian) green and white! Great defense, and between “Shake n Bake” and Ajou Ajou… wow.
hey Tarkus, Go Green….that was green wasn
t it ? Not a fan of the new home unis.Ive been meaning to ask you before about your` posting photo….looks a lot like a former sports writer I watched at an earlier time….any connection to Ernie ??
I have no connection to Ernie Afaganis, other than he was one of the first sportscasters I saw as a youth (me, not him). I remember him from such programs as Par 27 and Sports Weekend on CBC.
He also gets bonus points for being (presumably) of Greek heritage.
Isn’t this the knock knock moment for:
Broberg – hes already arrived, can he support Nurse?
Kemp – big right handed defence first guy?
How about the noob Wanner right hand D?
Lets get the try-outs started!
If Wanner made it out of camp, I’d be blown away; camp ’25 feels like his first legit audition to me.
Kemp is the one I’m holding out hope for, but he’s got an uphill challenge competing against Stetcher due to puck moving and skating.
I agree, almost no chance for Wanner out of camp – listening to both Gretzky and Chaulk, they are happy with his play and development (and say he’s a great kid) but he’s still developing and learning.
Agree with Kemp but I think he has a chance to beat J. Brown out for 8D. Stecher clearly ahead but depending on “style” of d-man they may need to insert…..
I think Nurse is a very capable top pairing defenceman. Perhaps he has been misaligned?
He came on strong with Gryba.
He had lots of help and protection surrounded by Larson, Klefbom, Sekera
Then he was thrust into limelight getting 30 minutes a game.
His game or narrative became “keep him a steady defender” blah blah
Darnell Nurse when he is pissed off is a horse. You cant catch him. You cant out muscle him, he can fight, and he can shoot the puck.
Maybe it should be opposite George here. Turn the guy loose. Play to his strengths. He can dominate shifts. If this was a rookie his raw talent would be off the charts. Coach him.
Get him a partner and get this kid going, he can be a monster when he wants to be.
He was more restrained last year … not the same player since he got suspended for 1 game for fighting that scrub on Vegas in the playoffs.
What is odd is how these 3 skills seemingly disappeared (at some point) from his game. I agree and wholeheartedly suggest that these were the skills that got him paid. But something changed… was he asked to change/alter his game, did he change his game to help the dance with a particular partner, did he suffer an injury that affected his strength-abilities… I don’t know, but I believe he can recover, if he can just get the aggression & the growl back, his confidence will begin to skyrocket.
He may never be what some expect from a $9 million guy, but there is no turning back… give him every opportunity to be what he can be.
When everyone was picking on him, he got mad and he showed up. Where was that guy? Where did it go?
The game that Coffee brought, that game where he wanted the dmen to make plays and do something. That seemed to have opposite effect on Darnell. No idea why.
I thought about this a year ago that if Ekholm doesn’t fall off a cliff and gives us 2 more warrior seasons then what? Will management resign him on a 2-3 year team friendly deal. I still believe Ekholm has 4-5 seasons left in that Swede body of his.
He’d be 36 when he starts that next contract – I’m just hoping he gets through the next two season mostly healthy.
He finished last year with a flash and he seemed to get stronger as the year went on after recovering from that preseason injury. He spent all those years caged up in Nashville now he gets to roam free in Edmonton. I truly believe he loves hockey and loves playing for the Oilers.
I have little doubt that he loves playing hockey for the Oilers.
I have reservations about signing him to a contract that starts when he’s 36.
Agreed. A hard pass on signing 36 year old D men.
Nurse might welcome a trade; this is a tough town
They will all be tough at $9.25M.
$9.25M comes with higher expectations.
And Dom doesn’t care which team Nurse plays for.
It’s time to lay off Nurse, management needs to find him a partner that plays to his strengths. Nurse can skate he needs to join the rush especially with this talented forward group. I do believe he gets the green light more and will score at least 15 goals this upcoming season. I believe Nurse is just going into his peak years and has it in him to be a all-star
Bowman traded away Panarin
Cap reasons.
And Towes wanted to play with his buddy Saad again, who was originally traded for cap reasons. Casualty of winning Cups. Everyone wants to get paid.
Panarin and Saad both had 6 million cap hits
Toews had very guarded comments after the trade also lamenting that it was hard to see a close friend get traded away
Bowman promised to shake things up after the Blackhawks were swept by the Predators and looked terrible doing it
Those trades were two years apart.
Saad leaving was Animisov coming in as potential cover as a middle six centre and cap room/prospects. Saad returning to CHI saw Panarin and his upcoming raise/extension going out for a familiar veteran.
I don’t follow CHI very closely, willing to be wrong on my read of the situation. But that’s essentially how it looks from here.
Has Matheson suddenly mastered how trolling works on twitter or is it the heat?
Used to read Matty every day. He was my favourite. But the business part of the game changed a lot, and it really left him behind…he used to be the most connected guy here, him and Cam Cole maybe…but he really seems to be just throwing things out there now, and most if not all of his sources are long gone from hockey. And that would still be okay, if he wasn’t disrespectful to the players, and more than willing to help run a player he doesn’t like right out of town. He’s really pissy.
why is he pissy? because Leon has a grudge?
And why would Leon have a grudge?
He’s struggling with regaining anything resembling relevance.
After the pissy Leon incident I think he clued in that he’s lost a step.
My guess is he’s going for clickbait to get any kind of metrics bump he can to keep his post. Cutbacks are looming.
I’m saying this as someone who used to jump at the chance to read his words, for decades. It’s a doleful epilogue to watch unfolding, seemingly in slow motion.
I’m pretty sure the reason we all read every word Matty wrote back in the day is because that’s all there was for Oiler news.
Cam Cole, Terry Jones and John Short say hello 🙂
I’m probably missing some others but that’s who I recall off hand.
Not to mention Dutch on ITV. Legend.
RIP Dutchy. Beauty.
Boy, geez Louise. I said read. I meant read. Yes, there was ITV, and I loved Darren Dutchysen as much as anyone. Look, Matheson was the main Oilers writer for the Journal. Yes, John Short wrote opinion pieces, Cam Cole did indeed write some pieces on the Oilers, sometimes. Terry Jones was unreadable so I’m not sure what you mean there. Virtually all the real Oilers news in the Journal came from Matheson. That’s why we all read him. Which I think is where I started.
Oilers news left a wide range of mediums to receive information.
Rod Phillips spent more time around the team than anyone…both at home and on the road.
He was the leading purveyor of Oiler news for a very long time.
Dom’s comments on Nurse’s contract value are pretty damning, and many others on his list have been commented on, and poked fun at, on this site. This makes it hard to discount what Dom wrote.
There are only a few arch supporters of Nurse who would argue that Nurse is a $9.25M defender. Good luck to them winning such a discussion. Nurse is overpaid. It doesn’t matter how that happened; he’s overpaid.
This doesn’t mean that he is a bad player or that we should expect the results we saw in the playoffs, even though called playoff Nurse below replacement level. The stats don’t support that it was anyone else’s or everyone else’s fault. The poor playoffs could have been bad luck for Nurse, but to what extent.
What does the organization see in Nurse? Do they see a top pairing defender? If so, great, and steady as she goes. If they don’t then “cap efficiency” may determine Nurse’s next chapter as finding a replacement for Ekholm will soon have some urgency. $9.25M for a 2nd pairing Dman is too much for a team paying top dollars to McDrai, and likely Bouchard.
This has been discussed many times, but I think it’s important to remember how numbers regress. It’s easy to assume that GF% will move towards xGF% because it is built on a bigger sample of events. But, particularly when looking at small sample sizes, xGF% can also regress towards GF%, or both can move in the same direction in a larger sample.
I would say neither Nurse nor Ceci had a good playoffs. As competition improves during the playoffs, they could not keep up their regular season numbers. I’m inclined to believe that if Broberg can put up those results against the best, his expected numbers will catch up some and Nurse is usually much better. Even with that God send, the Oilers still need another championship level defender and someone has to go.
Truthfully, Nurse had a series of bad bounces, and these had significant impact on his numbers.
Things that will (and should) never happen Friday, but im putting on my cold Vegas hat:
Draisaitl for Faber and Wallstedt+.
Minny gets the best player in his prime that fits a Guerin mold to a tee and gives them a 1C in the Kaprizov window. Extension coincides with Parise Suter buyouts shrinking.
Edmonton fixes the Right side for 10-15 years, moves Nuge/Henrique to 2C with Holloway 3C. Savoie fills wing or centre. Drai doesn’t usually drive a line and the wear and tear will come ala Toews imo. He’s severely injured and plays through it every year the last 3 years. There will come a time the body breaks down. It will be during any 8 year extension.
Minny immediately wins the trade, Edmonton wins the war.
Thats why I’m team 5 year term for Leo but I get it likely won’t happen due to AAV.
Players would mutiny it won’t happen but if we’d won game 7 I’d seriously consider something in this vein. Faber is a Top 5 best young RHD in the game.
Players would mutiny? Fans would lose their shit.
As long as you’re right who cares?
I don’t really get this reply but ok.
If you make any trade and it results in winning, fans will get over it.
Oh ok I get it now.
Its the heat! The heat is getting to you!
Faber and Wallstedt were selected with picks that Holland traded away.
Only guy I’m trading Drai for is Byfield.
This is, hands down, the dumbest thing I will read today.
1- Draisatl would never go to Minnesota. He’s bound for NYR or LA if he doesn’t stay in EDM
2-You leave a cavernous hole in the top 6 that Nuge/Henrique don’t fill
3-Bouch goes down to 2RHD or you’ve just traded Draisatl for a 2RHD?
Come on. ffs
You may have read it but comprehension clearly eluded you. Dramatic response.
I think the problem with Nurse started when we acquired Ekholm. To me Nurse hasn’t been the same since. I don’t know if his ego was hurt as he was pushed down the roster with Bouchard and Ekholm moving ahead of him on the depth chart. I do believe not being the Guy on the backend has affected him negatively. It’s almost like he has lost his confidence and snarl.
Before Ekholm, Nurse and Ceci played with McDavid, and playing with McDavid masked the deficiencies of Ceci.
Post Ekholm, Nurse had no McDavid to help cover for the deficiencies of Ceci.
Playing Ekholm and Bouchard with McDavid as a five man unit is a fine idea that I approve off.
But it means that Ceci has gotta go.
You know, if Ceci IS traded, there will be a mountain of pressure on Nurse to prove the Godot correct.
Ceci + Kulak + 1st for John Carlson with 2 million retained.
That is my dream move.
Here’s some garbage, along with half a cup of coffee, topped with a pick that’s essentially a second rounder- all for your best player. Oh btw can you retain a couple mill as well for funsies?
I’m not often right on these things, but last summer, I had picked Sean Durzi and Connor Ingram to have breakout seasons.
Durzi was traded last summer for a second round pick and Kings fans were happy, at the time, for addition by subtraction.
Durzi went on to play top-pairing minutes and sign a $6m x4 year contract.
Ingram started 50 games with a .907 on a bad team.
Now, Jokiharju is certainly no Sean Durzi, but he’s my sleeper pick for a guy who’s going to take a step forward this year (albeit a perhaps a much smaller one than Durzi).
Jokiharju played an hair under 22 minutes per game in 2021/2. (His draft +5 season)
He suffered a ghastly injury in October of 2022 when a puck deflected off a stick into his face causing a concussion and facial fracture.
I think the dust has settled.
We knew Durzi, he played fantastic against McDavid. He gets credit for that.
He actually didn’t play fantastic against McDavid. He squared off against 97 in the 22 playoffs when Doughty was injured. McDavid torched him.
He played worse in the subsequent 23 playoffs against us. When he was traded, most people here thought LA was extremely lucky to get a 2nd round pick back. HH actually had the most generous view of the trade at the time (excluding me) He declared it pretty fair for both teams.
I had called the trade an absolute robbery for Arizona.
But your idea of finding the next player before they breakout is probably exactly what the team is doing. I wonder if Jokiharju is on the whiteboard?
Yes, the next Forsling.
Someone in their d+4-6 year.
played most of their NHL games on a non-playoff team.
undervalued
or buried on a deep team
I hope they do. Jokiharju was derailed by the head injury.
Even on a bad team, playing 22 minutes per game in the d+5 is something notable.
IMO most analysis of Nurse’s play only takes into consideration who his defensive partners were. But what about the forwards, and what they did, or failed to do, during the play?
Oilers fans need their d-men to be Pronger or Ekholm. If there’s any flaws they’ll find them and peck away like a flock of chickens with a wounded member of their flock.
Looking at the fate of countless serviceable or better college Dmen to pass through Edmonton, I’ll grant you that Oilers fans give Oilers defensemen a tough ride. I don’t think this conversation is happening around Nurse quite the same way without that 9.25M.
I mean, every fan can see how close EDM was to the cup. Rightly or wrongly, every fan can imagine roster alternatives for that 9.25M.
Look forward on some intel relating to Paul Coffey – When asked, Jackson mentioned earlier this week that he thinks Coffey will be coming back to coach but nothing was official and we was going to talk to him this week. Maybe we hear on this at the same time as the GM announcement?
Nurse has never had an experienced defensivelly reliable partner for an extended period of time. This doesn’t matter if the team is a non-contender. If a team aspires to be a contender and win a Stanley Cup, the lack of an experienced defensively reliable partner is a major problem.
Bear was the closest but inexperienced and a little bit slow. Broberg will probably be better. He has everything but the experience.
see the stats when he was partnered with Larson.
This is what the analytics dept is really for. See if there is an under the radar player that has the right attributes to compliment Nurse. Nurse doesn’t need fancy or a producer, he needs someone to be reliable and do the range of tasks of what a D does well, or better
It’s been shown many times by a few people that Nurse needs someone who can gap, stand up at the D blue line, retrieve, and make a good pass. Nurse used to be pretty good at all of that except the passing, he has regressed across the board
It’s about Holland acquiring many one dimensional players, and the issues they create if not doing their one thing. It’s why Janmark stood out in the playoffs, he has a rounded game, and some jam, and yes Holland acquired him. The choices were not all good and not all bad, but enough issues to hamper the team
I think with that Nurse will be better and perhaps gain a bit of offense back. Getting hemmed in all the time or the puck coming straight back in because your pair isn’t balanced and can’t move the puck quickly and well enough is tiring, frustrating and counter productive to the attack. It would help the second and third lines out
5v5 Reg season stats, Larsson’s last Oiler season 20/21
Nurse Barrie TOI 732 CF% 51.15 SF% 50.23 GF% 58.33
Nurse Bear TOI 258 CF% 54 SF% 52.76 GF% 51.85
Nurse Larsson TOI 88 CF% 46.67 SF% 44.44 GF% 33.33
Larsson is a better version of Ceci, but not a puck mover and not that mobile. He gave up the line but was very good at separating the forward from the puck. Not a good fit and the coaches saw it
19/20
Nurse Bear TOI 1152 CF% 49.32 SF% 49.04 GF% 47.01
To your point Bear did a lot better with more experience. Nurse didn’t play enough that season with anyone else to bother putting numbers up, but Barrie was the better option when signed 20/21
Barrie’s last season 22/23, 61 Oiler games
Nurse Ceci TOI 1081 CF% 50.10 SF% 48.91 GF% 48.94
Nurse Bouch TOI 139 CF% 61.36 SF% 57.14 GF% 57.14
Nurse Barrie TOI 106 CF% 58.01 SF% 61.29 GF% 46.15
Nurse Ceci not great, Nurse Bouch excellent, Barrie’s weak D got him traded which turned out very good
23/24
Nurse Ceci TOI 992 CF% 51.56 SF% 50.39 GF% 52.94
Nurse Des TOI 181 CF% 51.83 SF% 50.59 GF% 30
Nurse Bouch TOI 82 CF% 61.33 SF% 61.73 GF% 44.44
Nurse Ekholm TOI 72 CF% 62.36 SF% 57.61 GF% 60
Nurse Stecher TOI 48 CF% 50 SF% 54.17 GF% 100 xGF% 59.02
Weaker passers and weaker defensive players are Nurse’s bane. He only played 7:18 with Bro and it wasn’t good other than SF% 57.14 – 0-1 goals
It looks like Nurse Ceci played better, but I think the increased pace of play in playoffs sinks them, it has twice
Stecher is a small sample, but he looks like a good bet. Or a better bet. Maybe that’s why they signed him
Great analysis thanks
Great points. Fit is very important.
I had thought Larsson was absolutely cooked the last year he played for us, but Seattle paired him with an elite puck mover in Dunn and found new life playing effective top-pairing minutes.
Nurse Bear also ran into big trouble against the Jets. Maurice cheated the forecheck to Bear because he knew that’s where the outlet pass was always coming from. Bear wasn’t fast enough.
Nurse/Larsson also had seasons of success together. For example, in 2017/18, they played over 800 minutes together with a 57% goal share (52% expected).
How did you manage to skip over 21-22?
The year with the best Nurse-Ceci results.
And the year Nurse had ugly results with the good passers Bouchard and Barrie.
Narrative.
I know that coming in as the 9th worst contract is a pretty big indictment, but I was surprised about Dom’s take on Nurse’s level of play. Calls him a capable top pairing defender, just one who treads water as opposed to pushing results (like Bouch and Ekholm), hence his contract is overvalued by about 3 million.
Honestly, not a ton you can add to the discussion in that regard. The damage to the cap is done and it’s here to stay until, as LT points out, it’s 2027 or the team stinks enough to drive him away. If you can find a way to move the contract then that would be great, but the problem is that any solutions have to start with Nurse waiving his NMC, so trying to armchair GM a solution is almost impossible since every scenario begins with this giant asterisk. I think people trying to solve the Nurse problem by moving him are just going to drive themselves mad trying to figure it out.
So you’re left with figuring out what to do with an overvalued, underperforming asset. Well Nurse and Kulak aren’t going to slide over to the right side anytime soon, so you’re stuck with Broberg, Ceci or “replacement player” as 2RD. As far as I can see for realistic solutions, that’s it really, outside of trading Kulak and moving Bro to 3LD to try and gain some cap room for a more highly paid 2RD. But given the lack of currently available GOOD options for 2RD that we can fit in the cap, I think that nearly removes the replacement option until the trade deadline. So there is a good 90% chance that this is where we’re at for the regular season, and any move comes at the trade deadline.
All to say, in my opinion, this issue isn’t getting solved in the off season. Is there something I’m missing?
I think the only thing missing is the difficulty & cost of acquiring a top 4 RD at the deadline when 15 other teams are trying to do the same thing. 😎
The issue of a lack of 2RD doesn’t need to be solved right now, as long as it’s solved before the deadline. Ekholm was picked up for very marginal cost so it is possible. A place off spot is a sure thing, especially if the Oilers don’t give away so many early season points (most of the blame in the last 2 years can be placed on Campbell’s play).
They paid a heavy price for Ek, especially given he was 32. Worth it? Yes, but those deals don’t always work out. Shopping at the deadline is expensive. Or it was maybe the new team gets more favourable prices like others do
If they do it in summer it will be less expensive
I’m all for analytics as a piece in contributing to player personnel decision-making, but expected goal share should never be valued more. Actual goals are far more critical.
Nurse is not a smart hockey player, which leads to catastrophic errors in his game.
Watching him play for Sault Ste. Marie – he was able to use his athleticism to dominate the junior level. That hasn’t translated to the NHL.
He could do it at the NHL level, but he only does it when he gets mad.
He was pretty good in a contract year just think if he was pissed in a contract year we would have the 2nd coming of Larry Robinson.
Except the last time Nurse was extended, he still had a year remaining on his contract.
So, the year before a contract year.
So does that mean you are FOR letting Draisaitl get to UFA status?
For the record, the post you’re replying to was to set clear the record as Reja insinuated that Nurse was performing well due to a contract year, when in fact he was extended a year prior to his contract renewal deadline.
I never said anything about Leon.
These two are not the same. Nurse was coming off a career year buoyed by an uncharacteristic/unsustainable shooting percentage that the layman could (and did!) spot a parsec away with the naked eye.
To answer your question, I’d like to see Leon sign an extension before training camp so it’s not a distraction.
I’d also like Leon to set a precedent of taking a discount that Bouchard and McDavid (and others) also follow, for the good of the team as a whole.
While I’m at it, I’d also like a winning lotto ticket… but the odds are slim when you have no stakes in the game.
I think The only way forward is
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm Broberg
Kulak Ceci or preferably cheaper Ceci
try to keep Nurse afloat and use Ekholm as a mentor and someone to anchor a pairing because Nurse can’t.
I’m not sure about “only way forward” but this is something that I think is prudent to get a solid look at.
Many are loathe to break up one of the top pairings in hockey, and I get that, but the staff can always go back to it, at any time.
Bouchard has proven to not be a product of Ekholm or of McDavid – he’s fantastic numbers (goal share, expect goal share, etc.) continue to sparkle away from there.
Bouchard is turning in to a legit top 5 d-man in the league, a 2-way d-man. He may be able to “carry Nurse” or maybe, just maybe, Nurse regresses back to his historical levels of play – he’s NEVER had a d-man partner anywhere in the vicinity of Bouchard’s impact.
I didn’t say it explicitly, but there was a reason Larsson played the Shawshank minutes. At least one and probably both McDavid and the coaching staff didn’t like 97 playing with Larsson.
As far as Nurse playing those minutes, I’m not sure.
The Nurse McDavid 5v5 minutes have dropped from 543 to 280 year-over-year.
Not just those minutes but all minutes have dropped the last 2 seasons. I didn’t watch the team much this past year for various reasons but to me Nurse played his best when he knew he was going to be out there for big minutes night after night. It seemed to focus him. Big strong guys often play better the more you play them.
TOI
2019-20 – 23:27
2020-21 – 25:38
2021-22 – 25:03
2022 -23 – 23:30
2023-24 – 21:54
Something else I wonder about that is not quantifiable is what losing his place as the 1LD has done to Nurse. The reason is that I worked in some pretty competitive environments at various points in my life and I saw on more than one occasion how the ‘top dog’ losing his place affected performance.
And then, of course, there was a big change in the coaching staff and how they wanted the dmen to play. Some progressed, some fell off. It would be interesting to hear how Coffey viewed his season with respect to the personnel he had to work with.
None of these are really ‘math supportable’ but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of them had at least as much impact as “Ceci is the problem”. 🥸
I was against breaking up the top pair in an earlier thread, and especially so if such were primarily motivated by trying to bring Bouchard back to earth going into contract negotiations, but I do wonder if shifting Nurse there mightn’t rehabilitate or simply rejuvenate him. Certainly, it would work to recover his value (unless disaster. then the word would really be out). The expectation is that, at the expense of the super pair, you’re getting stronger performances through every pairing.
might work? 🤷🏻♂️
They should be a great pair, maybe now Bouch is older it might work, but both are prone to mental lapses
Broberg over the course of the last three seasons:
Only 28 minutes with Ekholm but 2-0 goals and 67% expected.
About 50% across the board with Nurse in 50 minutes.
Over 80 minutes with Kulak and over 50% across the board (a couple percentage points and 6-5 goals).
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Ceci
Kulak/Broberg
Or switch the 2/3RD
There is little doubt that he’s not a $9.25MM player but Nurse has a career history of being a top 4 d-man and one that has, for a few years, played top paring (in fact the teams #1) and some of the toughest minutes in the league. Yes, he was helped by “McDavid minutes” but he also played those minutes with Cody Ceci, Tyson Barrie and Ethan Bear.
He is not a $9.25MM 1D but he is a legit top 4 d-man in this league and has proven over his career that he is better than how he played in the playoffs. He had a tough 2nd half of last season and a worse playoffs but he was actually quite good in the 1st half of the season. I doubt the wheels fell off and his regression started when he turned 29 in this past February.
Nurse is overpaid, he always will be, but, presuming he can get back to near his established norm, he can anchor a pairing behind Ekholm and, while a couple million overpaid on the cap, its not prohibitive of winning.
Would it be “better” if he was moved and $9.25MM of value was brought in? Sure. At the same time its not a reasonable hope for so many reasons.
When the Oiler win Stanley, and its reasonably likely going to happen, the cup gets past from Nuge to Nurse as the 4th person.
Nurse’s bounce-back to established norms likely means Stanley (if all else breaks as expected).
I don’t understand the thumbs down on this.
Freedom of expression?
Thumbs up, except Nuge gets the Cup second.
YMMV.
I would like to see 20 games of Nurse-Bouchard that would include the pre-season to see how they work together.
It would be extremely misguided to put Nurse and Bouchard together.
One doesn’t pair one’s best shutdown defender with one’s elite offensive defensively suspect defenseman.
Improve on the weak link. The weak leak is Ceci.
Keep the good players. Get rid of the bad players. It is not rocket science.
Uhhh Nurse is not the teams best shutdown defender lol.
I’m no geographist, but a lot of teams pair their best defensive defenceman with their best offensive defenceman. That’s why we have Ekholm with Bouchard and why Scott Stevens always played with Scott Niedermayer.
Niedermayer was defensively reliable.
Bouchard is a very good defensive player.
Bouchard is not defensively suspect – not any at all.
Its not 2021 any more.
Like Foegele is a legit top six forward! -).
Seeing how WF does in LA will be interesting to follow.
Does he revert to his career norms of being middle six with PK ability, who can move up in a pinch? Or does he drive the bus on a team that’s going to be challenged to compete with a division getting better around them?
If he can produce at top six levels, that will be a bargain for LA, considering he’s their 7th highest paid forward.
I never said that Foegele was a legit top 6 forward – I posted the factual information that he was producing points at 5 on 5 that were among top 6 forwards.
I have posted numerous times the attributes of the 2-way game that (at least in my opinion) Bouchard is good to excellent to elite at and the areas (well one now really) where he could improve. Actual substantive opinions. There are numbers to go with that too.
You never responds to the actual substance, ignore it until your next post about him not being a good defensive player (with no basis) or a deflection type response like this one.
Are all these insider and local sports journalist whispers about Bowman just priming us for a monumentally bad decision? I hope this is just smoke and no fire.
Kulak will progressively get worse the longer he has to play with Ceci. Kulak play was deterioating after five games. Similarly to when they tried it during the regular season.
The odd game here or there is fine.
Nurse was a trooper to be able to sustain playing with Ceci for three years.
Ceci has cost two cups. I don’t blame the Oilers management, i.e. Holland, for the first. I blame Holland for the 2nd one this June.
C’mon
Ceci did not cost us a game in the SCF. In fact he made an all-world pass on Janmark’s goal in Game 7. Don’t be hyperbolic.
This has been my position since last September. Six months before they lost the second cup.
Tell me more about your likening Evan Bouchard to Andy Delmore six months ago.
I never did such a thing. That is slander. Show your proof.
Unless Mr. Chambers shows proof, I ask that his post be taken down.
I have always compared Bouchard to Larry Murphy, who played well over 1000 games, and is in the Hockey Hall of Fame.
That’s being awfully sensitive. You’ve called Bouchard one-dimensional on many occasions.
You were dead right about Kassian, however.
Come now, it’s not slander at all.
You know it’s libel.
It always surprises me when someone can remember another commenter’s position on any subject.
I can’t remember the last thing I posted.
I enjoy reading your comments, Godot; you’re well-informed and you’re certainly consistent.
But, when reading your comments, I pronounce your handle as Go Dot, with a hard “T”, and I wait for no one. Haha.
Just kidding. I’d wait for you.
I remember a lot of HH’s posts, because they were all so bad that they became memorable and comical.
“Draisaitl is the next Joe Colborne” still makes me laugh.
The Brogan Rafferty meme (wouldn’t trade for Kelfbom straight across, and already better than Bouchard who would peak at top-4) has to be a close second.
It may have been a comparison to Andy Dufresne.
That, my friends, is confirmation bias at work.
Yes we know this has been your position, that you have no objectively on the subject.
just because you repeat something ad nauseam doesn’t make it true.
Yet Nurse and Broberg played the last five games of the Stanley Cup final together, and they had a positve goal differential and the Oilers went 3 wins and 2 losses in those games.
Something about beware small sample sizes.
At the same time, it makes sense to give it a go again to start the season. See if there’s a solution at 2RD in house.
If only it were considered at camp last year, who knows what might have been…
Ekblad blew the coverage. Making a pass to a wide open forward is not a particularly difficult thing to do. It is not remotely like Bouchard’s passes to tightly covered forwands enabling them to break coverage.
My take was also along those lines and Janmark’s end of getting to open ice, and finishing. Any NHL D should hit that pass
No surprise that you are quick to cast blame and never recognize a positive when it’s a player you don’t like.
Of course when it’s your guy everything is perfect and any shortcomings are someone else’s fault.
We can see you coming from a mile away.
I think Nurse and Ceci suffered a bit from Knobber’s love of the McBoosh 5-man unit.
I imagine an improved second line will help Nurse.
I think it was daniel that posed about Nurse struggling with more difficult minutes in the playoffs. Nurse either needs more help or easier minutes.
I had mentioned during the regular season that Nurse was getting fed the Larsson minutes
Larsson was famous for suppressing offense (at both ends of the ice.) I’m not even sure Larsson liked playing the Larsson minutes.
Nurse played 1400 minutes last season at 5v5. 736 minutes without either one of the glimmer twins. Those are the Shawshank Larsson minutes.
Agreed. I think the team has to find a way to get Nurse help in both his partner and forward lines.
I think it’s a tell the team did all its work on forwards thus far and that Coach KK made his comments about Leon’s linemates at the end of the year.
Last winter and into late March I delved into just how poor the offensive generation stats were in when McD wasn’t on the ice.
Kane had the 20 game slump, Nuge had 10 and 11 game slumps, McLeod had 4 or 5 goals in 2024, Connor Brown came alive at the very end but had fugly offensive numbers alongside Janmark, who himself acknowledged he had a rough season. Even Leon had a tough time when he wasn’t with McD.
Woodguy, Curlock and NHL Sid came around to McLeod’s woes after he was traded but it was clear for anyone to see if you looked up his NST individual stats. He generated offensive at like a 3rd pairing defenseman level.
Thats a lot of the roster generating bumpkins and when that happens every mistake seems that much worse. If you aren’t generating GF you can’t dig yourself out of a GA hole.
I look forward to seeing the results from the forward offensive depth this year.
100%.
I think the reason coaches often go to the Big Line is to throw Drai a bone. He has always had weak linemates. Skinner and Arvy should be a big help.
What about the Kahun-Leon-Neal line are was it Hass on his flank. That Holland character was quite the innovator his first year at the helm.
It’s never mentioned but could Nurse of just had a down year? Almost every player has one. I’m not saying he’s value for his contract or a true #1 but he’s definitely a more than capable #2 defenceman. He literally didn’t forget how to play hockey last year.
The problem is Ceci. The problem is NOT Nurse.
How do you rate Nurse’s ability to play zone defense?
His partner sucks. Nurse will play it fine with a good partner.
Where are the statistics to support this claim?
Some of us expected him to significantly decline as he approached thirty. When the physical skills start to erode his game was gonna suffer tremendously
There are many physical defenceman who’s play doesn’t decline at 30. I think that’s a reach.
Number 1. He’s actually not physical and hasn’t been in years
Number 2. Quite a few players that are older can think the game well enough that while they’re physical skills decline their anticipation improves and defensive awareness improves so they don’t decline in their play (such as Ekholm). Nurse does not think the game well so that’s not going to happen with him.
To say he doesn’t think the game well is such a stretch. But we disagree and that is totally fine.
3. Nurse isn’t showing physical wear at all to my eye.
4 His reach and skating should limit the impacts of aging in any case.
He turned 29 in February and is likely still in his prime for a d-man for another year or two.
For me, I don’t think we are talking age-related regression at all. More likely injury (which could be related to age/miles).
Its been mentioned – his play in the playoffs was so far below his established and historical levels of play. So was his 2nd half but it dove further in the playoffs.
He’ll never be a “$9.25MM d-man” but he almost assuredly will be much better next season and, hopefully, near historical norms.
With Dom’s recent top 10 worst contract list at the New York Times, the mind does wander. Can’t recall who mentioned it first, but we’re all probably at least contemplating a trade of Nurse for Jones or Parayko.
The bottom line is that you can enter the next playoffs with one or the other of Nurse or Ceci, but you cannot have both. You cannot have both.
I agree. I think Ceci is more the issue. He played better away fro Nurse, his best metrics with Bro in the playoffs, but that would be third pair. For me it’s not the stats it’s the video breakdowns several have done and tracking done by NHL_SID
Nurse’s play overall has declined with Ceci as his partner over several seasons. Nurse isn’t going to be a top player, but on his best game he can be an impactful player because of his skating and toughness. rehabilitating his game also means if down the road they want to trade him he will have more value
A better partner doesn’t need to bring offense, just be better at fundamentals and able to make good passes under pressure. There has to be someone out there
Every team has a player or two that is over paid for what they currently bring. However, not every team has multiple high, high value contracts like the Oilers do to balance it out. Hyman and Draisaitl more than compensate for the Nurse contract.
Nurse is a fine player, just overpaid (not his fault – thanks Kenny).
Trading Ceci is the move. If Broberg plays 2RD with Nurse for 20 games or more, improvement from both should be noticeable.
Sure Kenny bridged Nurse — the SECOND time — but blame for not extending Nurse early for value falls squarely on ChiaPete. Given he recognized Kelfbom’s value early and locked him into that dreamy contract early, how could have have not done the same with Nurse?
Who extends Koskinen (at 4x$4.5MM, like WTAF) before a core player like Nurse? We could have had Nurse for 8x$5.5MM according to reports at the time. Massive fail.
The Kassian deal as well – that overpay (the day it was signed) has had last implications.
Yeah, that was a gem too.
I was similarly enthused about the Chiasson extension (should have been a 50% raise, not 2x), but at least he approached value for the short term of that contract.
For clarity, yeah, a Nurse trade is exceedingly unlikely, so we have to move Ceci.
I guess we’ll see the best version of Nurse when Ceci gets upgraded to Rasmus Andersson later this season.
You’d need a third team with a shameless GM.
Craig Conroy isn’t playing with a full deck.
He’d take a 5th rounder and a c prospect from Vancouver or Dallas before he’d trade Rasmus to us for a first round pick.
I like Nurse. I like Ceci. But they both HAVE TO HAVE a complementary player as their defense partner – they are NOT that for each other. My belief is that the combination of:
— not playing a complementary game AND
— being fed the Larsson minutes
works to amplify the lesser parts of the other players game. As one of them ‘lacks’ what is needed to make the right play at any given moment in time, the other then overcompensates to try to make up for the issue… and since neither player is able to do that for the other in the first place, it gets really ugly really fast.
Nurse is the better player and he has a NMC so he is the guy you keep. Oilers will be trading Ceci near or at the deadline as they throw 1st round picks at trying to find the right partner for Nurse.
Of course… they could go at the issue at an angle and try to find the RHD who elevates Kulak or Broberg to 2nd pair. Where is our RHD version of Ekholm?
You hope, but certainly don’t plan, that Broberg is the guy.
Cap space is tight. Certainly no Ekholm, but I had suggested Jokiharju as a player to consider.
Love this question.
Brett Pesce would have been ideal, but that was always a no go. I see the following as potentially suitable fits, who may or may not be available/feasible via trade.
Brandon Carlo (*sobs gently, curses PistolPete and Bob Green).Artem Zub.Scott Mayfield (depending on return from injury timeline).Ryan Pulock.John Carlson.Alexandre Carrier.Neal Pionk.Brent Burns.Will Borgen.
My question is a bit different.
How do we create enough cap room & what assets do we have to offer in order to upgrade to a RHD version of Ekholm?
Well the team currently sits with cap space of -$354,167 and 21/23 players.
We all know thanks to OP how they could get to 23 players and be cap compliant on day one of the regular season. So lets assume EDM starts the year right at the cap but with a full roster.
It would seem that step one would be to determine the target, then figure out the financials including ancillaries (waiving NTC/NMC, draft picks, retention).
For example (hypothetical starting points):
1) Colton Parayko, 6x$6.5MM
Evander Kane, 2x$5.125MM
Cap balance: -$1.375MM
2) Brent Burns, 1x$5.28MM
Cody Ceci, 1x$3.25MM
Cap balance: -$2.03MM
3) John Carlson, 2x$8MM
Evander Kane, 2x$5.125MM
Cody Ceci, 1x$3.25MM
Cap balance: +$0.375MM
4) Neal Pionk, 1x$5.875MM
Cody Ceci, 1x$3.25MM
Cap balance: -$2.6MM
I don’t know how doable those are, or if they’re worth it for either side. Obviously picks and prospects would have to help balance the delta in AAV, and quality of players moving. Deals #1,2,4 would see EDM adding assets, and #3 would probably see some kind of depth prospect or pick come back. Ish.
Just a way to point out there’s a big disparity in the tier of asset coming in for an upgrade (Ceci, for all his flaws, is value at his contract for what’s being asked of him) at 2RD, versus what we seemingly have available to go out.
Actually, the avenue that I suggest for cap compliance without a trade or LTIR is a 21 player roster. From the current 21, Perry, J. Brown and D. Ryan are replaced with Lavoie, Broberg and Holloway, the latter two at $1.920MM.
Ah, 21 players.
I stand corrected.
The rest I had on autopilot.
Yeah, it isn’t so much that it can’t be done as that the cap and the dearth of prospects, draft picks or tradeable roster players make this very challenging.
The best solution would be acquiring credible blackmailing information that could persuade Conroy to trade us Andersson for Ceci & a sixth but I have no idea if Jackson is willing to go that extra mile. 😎
(Just because experience tells me that not everybody who wanders by this site has a sense of humour, yes, the last part is meant as a joke.)
The way I saw Andersson get abused against us during the playoffs had me reticent to think of him as a good option.
Then last year prior to the deadline when I dug into possible RHD fits, his numbers shone like a lump of coal.
Aside from his snarl (or conversely, propensity to take bad penalties at inopportune moments), handedness, age, and AAV, what factors could you point to that would recommend him as a target of interest?
Hard no to Jones.
Parayko I have time for.
I think he and Nurse would make an excellent pairing, if that were even feasible.
Nice read LT. It has been a very astute and active start for Jackson. I am curious about the next roster moves. Given the many different looks at the Oiler’s D over the last few seasons that felt it was lacking outside of Ekholm Bouch, which I agree with, do they also see that? Or do they think it’s fine?
Given Nurse isn’t going anywhere a better complimenting partner would be great. I also would prefer Bro settling in full time anchoring a solid third pair than hoping he can do well enough off hand with a partner that has had his ups and downs
I am also quite impressed with what they have done with the prospect pool.
Kulak is too good to dump until he cannot be fit under the cap. Broberg can play the right side for a couple of years with Nurse, or with Kulak if they trade for a more experienced top 4D.
I like Kulak, but he is a little too expensive for the bottom pairing with our d cap structure, which is a mess.
Florida spent $3m last year on their entire bottom pairing.
I’d rather a cheaper option to reallocate some money to 2RD.
If Kulak is paired with Broberg that means the Oilers 3rd pair likely comes in under $4MM…..
One could try:
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Ceci
Kulak/Broberg
Ekholm/Ceci have only played 43 minutes together – results aren’t great but its 43 minutes.
If you want to blame a GM for bad negotiating that’s fine but you can’t hold strong negotiating against a player or agent. With that in mind (i.e. without being sour about it), in retrospect what contract do we think Nurse has proven to be worth?
I would put him in Cam Fowler territory: 8 x 6.5M. Maybe a bit less given the better team Nurse plays for.
I think he was worth around what he was asking for, their first ask negotiated down as should happen, his agent had it surrounded. They were asking it was reported in the low 8’s. Signing him under 8 should have been possible and would have been acceptable
I wonder if Darnell regrets his contract as Luongo did his?
He is worth his current contract. He earned it. The Oilers forced him to bet on himself. Nurse willingly bet on himself, and took full advantage of the indecisiveness of Oiler GM’s.
It’s not an exact parallel, but look at the Morrissey contract. Same draft year, but Morrissey was a little later to the NHL.
Morrisey would’ve been a better pick than Nurse
Shea Theodore, also available at #7, would have been a better choice than both.
Easy to say, with the benefit of hindsight.
Up and till two seasons ago, that would not have been true.
Don’t have to be a Nurse hater to see that he’s not covering that contract. People make that claim by eye, Dom makes that claim by metric. He got overpaid. Not his fault. Don’t see how it’s in question