Oscar Klefbom’s early fancies
Since the beginning of the 2014-15 season, the Edmonton Oilers have iced 45 “rookie” skaters in NHL games. Of those 45 forwards or defensemen, just two (Connor McDavid, Drake Caggiula) skipped the AHL completely. Several (Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, others) spent little time, while the vast majority had extended stays in the minors.
It isn’t necessarily a matter of an individual player being shy of NHL ability, sometimes the team is so deep (Leftorium!) it’s impossible to make the grade. Sometimes, as in the case of Vincent Desharnais, development time is required to reach NHL-ready levels. For Desharnais, the issue was foot speed. How often is speed an issue?
Of the men who played significant time in the AHL from 2014-15 through 2023-24, most had at least some speed concerns.
Among the forwards, Leon Draisaitl was a powerful skater, Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway showed good-to-great speed, and all three made it. For Tyler Benson and Bogdan Yakimov, NHL success did not come and part of the reason was speed. Few AHL forwards in the decade who had questions about their boots made the NHL, and those who did (Jujhar Khaira) were bottom-six forwards with a specific skill set.
Among defensemen, Oscar Klefbom was a powerful skater, Darnell Nurse could fly, Jordan Oesterle had great speed and arrived in time to have a legit NHL career, Philip Broberg has great boots.
Those defenseman who struggled were less successful but not shut out. In fact, Vincent Desharnais had real skating issues, worked hard on them and then finally emerged as an NHL defender, if a little shy on speed. Is it because the NHL runs out of defenders every year and even slower skaters are welcome when a crisis arrives? I think that’s exactly it.
Also, when we say “the scouting reports say he’s slow” what exactly does that mean? I take it as a DQ for an NHL future, but that clearly isn’t true.
One of the things we need to do in the future, and this could happen long after I’m gone, is drill down on NHL skating and find the high and low. I know NHL Edge has numbers, but do we understand them? It seems to me that we’re not really closer to knowing than we were when the eye test ruled the world. I knew Pierre Bouchard and Tom Reid were slow because I could see it. We need stronger metrics in this area.
On the Lowdown today, Sports 1440, we’ll talk to Steve Lansky live from the Paris Olympics! We’ll get a boots on the ground (Steve has very slow boots btw) report from Paris. Also, Tyler Yaremchuk returns from vacation to give us the latest on Leon Draisaitl. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Four key storylines for Edmonton Oilers fans to follow the rest of this summer
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5674969/2024/08/02/oilers-summer-leon-draisaitl/
I was so excited when I had read this. I thought the folks at PuckIQ had added Oilers news content.
Skating speed is fascinating, and it’s great to see it on NHL Edge. The videos explain the measures well enough I think, and burst counts seem to be the most significant measure. But the relative importance of speed isn’t clear.
By eye defender speed doesn’t seem to correlate with zone time, which is the essence of traditional analytics (e.g. “proxy for possession”). It’s interesting to look at actual measures instead of shot shares.
The Oilers struggled in the 2024 playoffs at even strength in terms of zone time. During the regular season they posted an offensive zone time of 43.4%, ranking them in the 93rd percentile. In the playoffs, this dropped to 40.4%, below the 50th percentile.
During the 2024 playoffs, defender speed didn’t seem to change much from the regular season (somewhat difficult to judge from count data as mentioned earlier by Ryan). However, zone time shows that the second and third pairings had decreased offensive zone time in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
Player: Regular Season OZT% (ES), Percentile; Playoffs OZT% (ES), Percentile
Ekholm: 46.5%; 98th; 44.2%; 86thBouchard: 46.7%; 98th; 44.4%; 87thNurse: 41.7%, 67th; 37.2%, below 50thCeci: 41.9%, 71st; 38.4%, below 50thKulak: 41.8%, 70th; 37.9%, below 50thDesharnais: 40.4%, below 50th; 38.3%, below 50thBroberg: 40.2%, below 50th; 36.4%, below 50th
While the top-5 defenders performed well in terms of zone time in the regular season, in the playoffs only Ekholm and Bouchard posted well. WOWY’ing centers with defenders on NST produces some expected results and firmly points fingers at the usual culprits.
Player combination 5v5 2024 Playoffs
Henrique + Nurse + Ceci: SCF% 34.78Henrique + Nurse – Ceci: SCF% 33.33Henrique – Nurse – Ceci: SCF% 50.68Draisaitl + Nurse + Ceci: SCF% 27.87Draisaitl + Nurse – Ceci: SCF% 55.84Draisaitl – Nurse – Ceci: SCF% 66.47Draisaitl + Nurse: SCF% 43.48Draisaitl – Nurse: SCF% 57.58Draisaitl + Kulak: SCF% 41.12Draisaitl – Kulak: SCF% 56.87
When the second and third pairings are dragging down your bottom 9, it’s a big problem. But beyond that, the more I contrast Nurse and Kulak, the better Kulak looks.
Looking at PuckIQ 23-24 5v5 reg:
Nurse DFF% vs Elites 49.9Kulak DFF% vs Elites 58.1
Everyone knows the second pair can’t stay as it is. The numbers suggest to me trying Kulak for an extended period of time as the second-pairing defender and that perhaps Kulak-Broberg is better option than Nurse-Broberg. Which leaves Nurse as a third pairing defender and penalty killer to pair with the best right-hand shot you can find.
RELEASE: MacTavish & Gregg to be inducted into Oilers HOF
The multiple Stanley Cup champions will be enshrined in the Oilers Hall of Fame prior to the October 25 game against the Pittsburgh Penguins
Dr. Gregg is a great choice, talk about underrated in the lore of Dynasty era Oilers.
Leon Draisaitl may have been a “powerful” skater, but he was not a good skater.
In junior he played as we see him today. Puck control, protecting the puck, exploiting lanes. His skating was described as “decent” or “OK”
His first season his skating was not fast enough to get to the puck. He bent at the waist rather than at the knees and he tired early. Not much was written about his off season, but he got help. In his usual German efficient style he improved his stride, and technique.
Today we see him jump back and forth between a very wide lumbering style to some flat out speed when he needs it.
I used to say he skated like he has no knees
Wasn’t a very popular take
Yes, it was sort of an insult to our new high draft pick. But in fact it was a story in my opinion of how he managed to improve his game. Remember Leon’s first few goals? Didn’t even crack a smile. This kid was all business. When he was sent to the AHL he was pissed to the extreme. Love him.
Yeah, he wasn’t up to NHL speed. It was a concern for me at the time.
He made incredible improvements in his skating speed and technique after that first year.
He’s actually one of the fastest players in the game now. 92nd percentile for top speed and 96th for speed bursts.
Many players aren’t able to do that. Whether that’s not putting the work in or by being rated limited by lack of fast twitch muscle in their genetics, I’m not sure.
I grew up playing hockey and competing at a high levels in many sports. Sprinting type speed, in any sport (running, cycling, swimming, cross country skiing, or hockey) is mostly genetic.
With speed it’s more about acceleration and edges talking about NHL
Most NHL players given a long enough runway can skate fast. Lucic was in skills comp
That’s not what works in NHL games. So Leon is a puck protector
Regarding NHL Edge, if players have higher speed and a lot of skating distance that may be saying something
There are limitations with this data and not having acceleration data is one of them.
In the old days, when some new stat came along, the first thing we always asked was whether or not it passed the “smell test.”
With the NHL top speed data, all of the guys who have the separation speed to beat guys wide are clustered at the top of the list like McDavid, Mackinnon, McLeod, and Point.
I would imagine high top end speed is highly correlated with acceleration.
There are certainly probably some exceptions with guys that get there but take a while to wind it up.
But yeah, it would be even better if there was some measure for quickness of acceleration from a standstill or a measure for guys who can hit the nitro button.
Leon reminds me of Peter Stastny- Jaromir Jagr- Frank Mahovlich but my closest comparison is Alexander Yakushev who was 6’3” 210 pound beast with a Reggie Leach wrist shot. Leon is in my top 5 all-time Oiler favorites. There’s nothing sweeter than watching Leon crank it up lumbering down the wing. Bowman needs to sign Leon the sooner the better it’ll be a sad day if we lose Leon like we did with Messier-Anderson-Tikkanen-Fuhr-Lowe-MacTavish etc. Wouldn’t it be special if RNH-McDavid-Leon-Bouchard-Skinner are Oilers until they retire or close to it.
When developing young players the key is always skating. Skate, skate skate. The rest will come. Those that cannot keep up with skating will fall back in levels.
My nephew was trying to get places in hockey. My bro in law would tell me learning how to shoot was cheap, learning how to skate very expensive
Except these days, this isn’t working.
The ability to shoot, pass, get your head up, find your teammates…it’s never been automatic and with less street hockey/shinny + half ice early years which reward blindly skating at the net, kids are having to learn fundamentals too late.
They don’t call it ‘ice skate’.
Yesterday, Scungilli brought up Gustav Lindstrom.
The topic of speed came up and JP had mentioned that Forsling’s speed wasn’t a major plus, but it wasn’t a hindrance. This is in line with what my thoughts were.
One way of looking at speed would be in the context of player archetypes to see if a player has sufficient speed or “good enough speed.”
Height and reach compensate somewhat for lack of speed. Brains do too. So does a good first pass.
Ekholm occasionally gets exposed by speed. He compensates by his anticipation ability (Leadfarner). He’s also six five. Top speed: 21.9 mph.
I’ve ran some AI scenarios. A player who’s 5 foot 11 would have to have a top speed 0.3 mph faster to beat a player sho’s six foot five in a puck race from the red line to the goal line. The difference is negligible for players two or three inches apart.
Forsling is six foot. His regular season top speed rounds up to 22.3 mph.
We can set the Forsling line for top speed to play effectivel top pairing minutes for a relatively shorter NHL d.
Lindstrom is 21.2 though he is a few inches taller. AI says the difference here is minimal.
Rasmus Andersson is a name often mentioned. He plays top four minutes and his height is in range. He’s 22.2. He’s hovering around the Forsling line.
Anyway, if you’re slower than Ekholm and you don’t have his brains and frame, that’s going to be a problem to play top four minutes.
Does 1 mph top speed matter?
In other terms, a player who’s top speed is 1 mph faster will be four feet ahead in a puck race from the red line to the goal line.
Another trick with speed is that it can tell you who’s injured.
Darnell’s top speed was 22.7 during the regular season but only 21.5 during the playoffs.
There goes that idea! I think the Oilers should be a fast team. There can be a few exceptions, and ability comes first, but hopefully not too many. I guess it’s ingrained from the 80’s. It causes so many problems for the other team
If Perry skates any slower, he’ll be going back wards…
heh heh
Tow him with the Zamboni to the other team’s crease
And…… Im just going to tell my kid that AI says he should be faster at mowing the lawn.
I really like Phil Kemp and have since I first saw him when he captained the USA juniors. He kinda reminds me of Kris Russell in that he is willing to do whatever it takes to win, hitting, blocking shots, defending the net, a real team first man.
I haven’t seen him play, but a quick look at the interwebs and the first thing was ‘isn’t slow but not great acceleration, edges and pivots’. That must be it, because to me Vinny isn’t a very good NHL player, more a tweener, and he got the first kick at the can. Maybe because with his height he could sort of compensate for the skating. It would be hard to do well in the NHL if your pivots are weak and you also aren’t quick
In terms of skating speed, I’m probably average for my age (in my 50’s). But I can only assume that Tyler Benson and Jujhar Khaira would blow me away in a race. It’s fascinating how much more advanced athletes are than the average Joe, even though these athletes would pale in comparison to their peers such as McLeod or Holloway.
I was thinking about this when Summer McIntosh won gold in a recent race in about 4 minutes 27 seconds. My son, who is in his 20’s, is a strong swimmer and built like an ox. He was always beating his peers when I saw him swimming laps during lessons. I asked him how long it would take him to complete Summer’s race, and he laughed and said, “Oh, maybe 10 minutes.”
The NHL data is tricky because it’s not given in a per 60 rate.
This renders the speed burst over 20 mph data fairly useless for players like Broberg who only played 12 regular season games.
JFresh has converted the edge data to per 60 rates which makes it a lot more useful. Though I’ve only seen this in sporadic tweets. It would be better if the NHL offered this.
Where we’re at is also trying to figure out what matters more, top speed or speed bursts per 60 and where to draw the line in the sand, for different player types (top six/bottom six forwards, top four/bottom pairing d).
There are players like Marchessault who should be told that they don’t belong in this league. Five foot nine. Can’t skate worth a lick.33 years old. Wait, he scored 42 goals last season? 🙂
I’m still trying to figure out why the Sabres bought out Jeff. Skinner after having a bit of a down year lighting up the lamp. Jeff still managed to score 24. I can’t recall any other player who scored at least 24 being bought out.
Cap space, and roster fit with Lindy Ruff’s style. Skinner can score, but he’s not known as Bob Gainey lite away from the puck.
There is pressure to make the playoffs this season and it opened up over $7.5MM of cap space
What did they spend it on it’s not like they went out and replaced him with Stamkos?
I get the Lindy Ruff angle but for a team in need of goal scoring I found it a strange move to throw away a 25>35 goal scorer. I’ve always found Skinner a hard on the puck player and at 6 foot 209 he’s no shrinking violet.
It could be wanting to refresh the lockerroom like Guerin did in Minnesota buying out Parise and Suter.
This is a crucial question.
In my recent search for RHD options, I noticed a peculiarity with the presentation of how defensemen are ranked for skating top speed. Ryan has mentioned something similar, not sure he’s referring to the same issue.
For example (name: top speed (mph)/league average (mph)/percentile):
Cam York: 21.78/21.67/below 50th
Drew Doughty: 22.09/21.67/below 50th
Rasmus Andersson: 22.15/21.67/below 50th
There were others, these are the ones I had quick access to with the back button in my browser tab. Haven’t checked forwards yet.
My guess is this is data entry/coding error on the part of the website, or a data binning issue in SAP which then gets automatically imported into the website in bulk.
It’s certainly technically possible to have a median too skating speed that’s higher than the mean, but there seems to be a tremendous number of players that fall in the range of below the 50th percentile, but above average.
A left skewed distribution would fit that picture where there’s some tremendously slow players that drag down the average.
But yeah, it seems counterintuitive when I look up players and so many fall in that category of below the median, but above average.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQgcUhfwdtGek10tqwIdwgAAcz8mfA80CrVgZE2XNIgdIyoCtByEXNUArz8&s=10
Is there a RHD in the KHL we could sign that could compete in the NHL next season?
He’d have to be a UFA; there are no transfer agreements between the two leagues like there are for other Euro leagues.
Did the Flyers pay SKA St. Petersburg as transfer fee to get Michkov out of his KHL deal?
Did they?
Last I read there was no formal agreement.
I believe your are right that there is no formal transfer agreement but he was released from the KHL and has signed his ELC with the Flyers.
Brennan Menell?
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=177061
Vinny Deharnais making it should provide some evidence that Phil Kemp does have a chance. I would suggest that Phil Kemp’s skating is not any worse than Vinny’s but Vinny does have the advantage of length – despite not being a great skater, he’s got the ability to close gaps fairly quickly – at least it seems that way.
I believe Josh Brown is a decent skater, he’s got that advantage over Phil Kemp.
Brown is also meaner and bigger than both, and that has value still. Especially for a skill team that really only has two snarly big forwards, one hurt and one ancient. I doubt he isn’t as good as Vinny as well but we’ll see, maybe
Yes, he is bigger and meaner but I’m not sure sure he is as good as Vinny. His usage and results on a poor/meh team, and his 6-year history in the NHL, lead to the conclusion that he is replacement level.
There is the argument that he’d be better on a better team – sometimes that proves true, sometimes it doesn’t.
Would he perform at Vinny levels if put in his position on the Oilers?
Maybe but I have my doubts.
I hope that Phil Kemp continues on an upward development path and passes both Brown and Stecher and he can apply his style at the NHL level. Far from a lock but its my hope. Stylistically, he is exactly what’s needed as a 12-14 minute 3RD plus PK.
Thing that gets lost in these kinds of discussions (and I think you have Brown well surrounded), is the aim is to improve on Desharnais. Not to merely replace him for a cap discount.
I also have hopes Kemp can make the team. I feel like he’s got a higher hockey IQ than Vinny, and is a better natural defender, with underrated puck skills that the could stand to use more. Biggest issue to sort out is the skating.
Curious how you’d see him and Broberg fare as a third pairing? Is it the right mix, or do they both lack areas leaving room for teams to exploit?
2nd pairing is where to make improvement.
Maybe the answer is to trade Darnell Nurse to find a suitable RHD to pair up with Broberg on the second pairing.
Hmmm, I’ve never really thought about a Broberg/Kemp combo as I’ve never really contemplated both Kulak and Ceci being moved for this season.
The first question is really if Kemp can play in the NHL.
Your description of him is very apt. He is a very strong defender positionally that takes very good angles and is VERY strong on the boards – he’s not quite Adam Larsson dirty but he’s not fun to battle against.
He does have solid offensive instincts and a good shot. He’s a strong puck mover.
The question is, can he do these things at the NHL level. Can he move the puck efficiently with less time and space? Can he move laterally and pivot when the speed and talent of the attackers is greater?
I really do think he’d be able to at least tread water on a 3rd pairing and, who knows, maybe he’ll turn in to next Gudas or Zub?
As far as being paired with Borberg, he did do well with mobile d-men in Bako – he does well with everyone in Bako. Broberg is a strong rush defender and Kemp a strong in-zone defender so, maybe?
That was my thinking. Considering you’ve seen most of his games, I figured it was natural to ask you if they’d be a good pair. Regardless of whomever else was traded.
My thinking was, as you said… one mobile guy and one guy to mind the store.
IMO Brown & Stecher block any chance of Kemp making the big club. Essentially, they have replaced Desharnais with two 30-year-old experienced RHD for less kahunas than what it might have cost to resign Desharnais. That’s a tidy piece of business considering Vinny was not a regular during the playoffs, mostly because of the play of Broberg.
There is no doubt that Kemp is behind them on the depth chart heading in to camp but that doesn’t guarantee the same order come October or January.
not to be pedantic but why on earth are we discussing phil kemp as a 3rd pairing option for the NHL. He plays 3rd pair in the AHL currently if you look at the TOI estimates, while he is a decent AHL player we have seen time and time again that the NHL is a much different league. He may develop into a vinny type player long term but that is a long shot.
Kulak, broberg, and ekholm have all played time on the right side and i would say Brown and Stecher are both ahead of kemp on the depth chart, and if we run into a spot where the ahl 3rd pairing dman is an option we have much bigger health concerns.
If im knobby and one of bouche or ceci or broberg is injured and stecher and brown are unavailable i am calling up gleason or dineen and playing them on the left hand side with either kulak or ekholm on the right hand side before i am calling up my 3rd pairing ahler in kemp.
From watching the Condors year after year, Phil Kemp is a very trusted and relied upon d-man on that team – playing in many high leverage situations.
Ekholm has played RD in the NHL – not since years ago in Nashville and all the numbers show he was MUCH worse on the right side.
Kulak never played any right D as a pro until this past playoffs – he said so himself (might have even included junior) – he seemed to do OK but didn’t feel comfortable and moved him off it.
Stecher and Brown are indeed ahead of Kemp on the depth chart now but that doesn’t mean it stays that way.
I think Kemp is ahead of both Gleason and Dineen on the depth chart, in particular if needing a right D – he is certainly not a 3rd pairing AHL d-man – if one watched the games, the would see that clearly.
He played RD in Montreal. He said he hadn’t much
It’s a bad idea even if Godot is obsessed with it. To be the best you need players in best positions. D playing off hand (it’s not a handedness issue LT!) is a loss of quality play
GM do your job and get a 2 RS RD better than Ceci
The Oilers have to get a #3 RS RD better than Cody Ceci, because I think Ceci in the lineup during the playoffs is a lousy bet for winning the Stanley Cup.
I have little doubt a team can with the Stanley Cup with Ceci on their third pairing.
Come on now.
I agree with you. Yes, a team can win the Stanley cup with Ceci on the third pairing, but…
I don’t think a team can with the Stanley cup if you have Ceci on the third pairing and you have Nurse on the second pairing, because then you have two pairings that won’t be good enough.
I don’t agree.
Presuming Ekholm’s game doesn’t show material regression, I expect Darnell Nurse to regress back to established norms which would make him a very high end 2LD/3D and I look forward to good health for him in the playoffs.
EDMONTON — Brett Kulak racked his brain for a moment or two but couldn’t come up with the answer.
There he was, with the Edmonton Oilers in the middle of the Western Conference final, being shifted to a position he’s seldom played. When was the last time he skated at right defence for a full game before that?
“I can’t remember a time I played the full game, that’s for sure,” he said.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5542000/2024/06/05/oilers-stanley-cup-final-kulak-perry/
I coached minor hockey for years and started to wonder if skating speed and processing speed were somewhat related. It seemed to me that kids who were above average skaters in their peer group created a bit more time and space and therefore had the ability to make more plays.
However, there were those kids who could skate like the wind but continued to make poor decisions i.e. they weren’t able to convert the extra time they created into better processing. Foegele fits into this category IMO.
I used to tell the kids to explode for three strides and ‘think the game fast’ versus burn around the ice all day.
What’s my point? I have no idea…
Love it! I think this is the kind of thought process that needs to happen around skating. What are we looking for and how do we measure it? Interesting wrinkle.
Technical skating ability and the skill of knowing when to use what is often what creates separation. Once you’re controlling your weight and your edges, upper body vs lower body etc – the playmaking gets a ton easier. Body control and decision-making – that’s why it feeds both the skating and the skill plays.
One of the biggest mistakes hockey watchers make is mistaking “speed” for skating ability. I had at least 5 kids on my team last year who suffered through at a higher level than they should have been for development because the “evaluators” simply looked at the fact that they could get up and down the ice in straight lines (and coaches unfortunately often don’t get a look at their teams before they are formed these days in minor hockey). We did the best we could to expand their skillsets and help them learn the game – but they would have had a much better time and came further along if they’d been a step lower.
Starting from speed evaluation has been a widespread hockey mistake for quite some time now. It is how you wind up with a team of “skaters” who can’t play hockey.
At the NHL level I often think ‘looks like an NHL player’ which often means big and fast
Warren Foegele comes to mind. Great athlete with size. I still marvel at his breakaway where he skated to puck into the end boards, no shot taken
The opposite being Ryan. If he was a little bigger he would have been a prominent player
One of my colleagues coached young Foegele (and another famous Oiler) on one of their youth teams in Ontario. He talks about both boy’s mirroring their father’s commitment to details.
I think you’re talking about the difference between tunnel vision, and opening up lanes.
Reminds me of how Nurse would so often burn by everyone and gain the zone with possession, only to either a) fire a muffin into the crest, or b) lose possession behind the net.
I saw the same thing too. This is precisely what lead to me calling him Warren Fumble, even though I liked him fine as bottom six player. Too many opportunities to cash that would typically lead to the puck going south.
Also, getting there the fastest is not necessarily as important as getting there at the right time.
Many talk about needing to be able to “keep up with McDavid” but a player like Pat Maroon was able to succeed by timing his arrival in the danger areas properly.