Raphael Lavoie has played in the AHL for parts of four seasons, and totaled 202 games in the league since 2020-21. Looking at this old list of players from the AHL over this century who did manage to make it (Tyler Benson aside), it seems five years is the outer marker—and at that point another organization may want to take a shot. That may be where the Oilers and Lavoie are heading this season.
Waive Babies
At some point during training camp, the Oilers will have to send prospects through waivers. I mention this every fall, partly because it causes a worldwide eye roll and that’s how I get my kicks.
Lavoie leads the group of men who are likely to play in the minors and could play in the NHL this season. The two advantages for the big winger? His contract is easy to slide in under the cap and his competition is old, older and oldest. Someone in that projected opening night lineup is going to pull something in September.
Lane Pederson has a clear shot at a job, and could make the opening night roster. In fact, I’m preparing my reasonable expectations series right now and have him on the Oilers roster to start the season. If the club waives him, and he gets claimed, RH center becomes a dire situation (until Noah Philp gets rolling down the highway). Drake Cagguila is the other forward who is waiver eligible but I don’t think a waiver claim is likely. James Hamblin is not yet waiver eligible according to my math, I stand to be corrected.
On defense, waiver eligible players include Troy Stecher, Ben Gleason, Phil Kemp, Connor Carrick and Cam Dineen. I didn’t include Josh Brown because he’s the odds-on favourite to make the team based on quality of contract signed this summer. I understand some of you would prefer Brown play in Bakersfield, but the organization felt a need to replace Vincent Desharnais and put money down on the idea. By excluding Brown from the Condors list, I’m respecting that fact, not trying to irritate you. I hope you understand.
The one player I am hopeful clears is Olivier Rodrigue. I believe he has an NHL future. Among goaltenders, only newcomer Connor Ungar is protected from the waiver wire. I wrote about the Condors this morning at The Athletic, it’s the unofficial start of the ‘reasonable expectations’ series and I hope you enjoy it.
Please refresh my memory…
I have been making notes on when we have to sign our unsigned players.
i see nothing indicated so far on our drafted Euros and one other player. Hos long do we have to sign Yevseyev, Berezkin, Denezhkin and Ty Taylor? Anyone help me out here?
CapWages has a list on the Oilers page. No idea how accurate it is. They are still trying to re-create CapFriendly but not there yet.
I got much of my recent info from CapWages after CapFriendly went dark. They don’t list a sign by date for these players, which is why I ask. I thought the rule fpr drafted Euros was 4 years after draft date, but if that wwas true, why wouldn’t CapWages have listed that easily calculated info? Am I missing something?Is there a wrinkle due to a lack of a transfer agreement with the KHL that muddies this up or something?
The really confusing one is Ty Taylor. Drafted in 2018 by Tampa, Edmonton got his rights in trade back in March 2024. 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons at U New Hampshire, 13 games with Grant McEwen in 2021/22 and 1 game in ECHL. 2022/23 with Glasgow in EIHL and last season with Evansville in SPHL. Even if you count the
Grant McEwen year as a college year in addition to his time in New Hampshire, he would have been a FA if unsigned by end of 2022/23 season, you would think. How did Tampa still have his rights for the 2023/24 season to trade us under that interpretation and how do we still have his rights(or do we? Is CapWages wrong perhaps?)
Did he not graduate from Grant McEwen and thus his rights extend even further to one year after the date his class would have graduated, even though he already spent three years at New Hampshire? This is not making sense to me that we would still hold his rights…
Yesveyev and Berzokin each have one year left on their KHL deals.
I hope we see them sign in May (KHL deals end at the end of April I believe).
thanks, but that part I know from CapWages. I am more interested in when their NHL rights expire, as I have yet to see info on that on any still publicly available hockey resource website…
Notwithstanding any provision of Sections 8.6(a) or (b) to the contrary, if a Player drafted at age 18 or 19 is drafted from a club outside North America, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the fourth June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights. (ii)
Notwithstanding any provision of Sections 8.6(a) or (b) to the contrary, if a Player drafted at age 20 or older is drafted from a club outside North America, his drafting Club shall retain the exclusive right of negotiation for his services through and including the second June 1 following his selection in the Entry Draft. The Club need not make a Bona Fide Offer to such Player to retain such rights.
On it!
I’ve just texted Dale Tallon to clarify.
I honestly believe the only reason Brown got 3 years and 1M was because nobody would pick that up off waivers.
Org gets beef when needed, say 35-40 games a year, fully buryable.
Team gets the Desh replacement for a few years and player gets 3M for a niche role. Box checked, moving on.
Very much agree.
He’ll play some NHL games, for sure, but I would suggest, over the course of each season and the 3-years, he spend more time in the AHL.
The one bright spot of Sir Holland cleaning out the top and bottom cupboards and having very little homegrown talent is the risk of not losing anyone to waivers.
When was the last time the Oilers lost anyone to waivers?
Probably Nathan Walker or the goalie debacle during the Covid year.
This is an infrequent occurrence, for most teams.
Does Anton Forsberg count as a serviceable Goalie.
Just think if Anton finds a home in Edmonton we may never see Jack Campbell.
I literally called it a “goalie debacle.”
Every part of that situation was a boondoggle from the start. To me it was Holland’s greatest error, or perhaps second only to not extending both Nurse and Bouchard as early as possible and for max term.
To your question of if Anton Forsberg was likely to be the goalie of the future? No; not likely.
He wasn’t good enough in CAR who have awesome defensive systems. His results in OTT have decreased year over year while he’s been deployed less and less.
Anthony Stolarz was probably the better bet and they let him go for sweet eff all.
Colorado signs Oliver Kylington to a one year $1.05 million contract.
A potential bargain.
Flames fans are twitching how low he signed for. Excellent bargain no lose signing he’ll be going hard showcasing himself.
Could be but I have Troy Stecher as 7D on the opening roster and Josh Brown in the AHL – firstly, Troy Stecher has had the better NHL career and, secondly, he’s over $200K cheaper on the cap.
I understand the defensive group his lost some size and presence moving on from Vinny and Josh Brown could fill that gap but I think Tory Stecher has proven more at the NHL level than Josh Brown.
Caveat: Stecher may not be 100% come camp recovering from surgery. I believe at the beginning of July, the intel was, recover was going great and ahead of schedule so there should be no worries but we’ll see next month.
Other caveat:
If they send down Brown and (when) he clears, then he doesn’t require waivers to come back and forth between BAK and EDM for, what, a month?
Any player that clears waivers can go up and down without re-clearing untill they have either (a) played 10 NHL games or (b) been on the NHL roster for 30 days – each case aggregated.
They may not want to risk losing Brown or Stecher to waivers.
I see Stecher as 7D and Brown as 8D.
If they are both on the healthy NHL roster then there its likely a lineup problem. They are both good depth.
Tough to see anyone picking up Brown at 3 years – that contract was a headscratcher to almost everyone.
By the end of year one everyone will be looking at it as nice value contract.
You need at least 1 D-man that doesn’t need cue cards when to drop the mitts. Brown is signed for 3 years the organization likes what he brings and Brown could instantly turn into a fan favourite.
Is there anything tangible to back up this opinion?
I hope its true but doesn’t seem likely based on his NHL career as I understand it.
Understood, and I think differing views are important to discussion. I’m just making sure people don’t think I’m targeting anyone with the idea that Brown is the 7D. He is paid more and the site I use for the depth chart has both Stecher and Brown, while the other has only Brown. So, there’s certainly room for conversation, but for the purposes of discussion, I’m using Brown as NHL and Stecher as AHL (mostly because of contract quality).
https://capwages.com/teams/edmonton_oilers
Kulak & Brown third pair or Broberg & Brown. Kulak & Stecher or Broberg & Stecher.
They are both better skaters than Ceci & Desharnais. If Ceci is moved there really isn’t much of a drop off because Brown & Stecher are third pair NHL defensemen and that’s about all that Ceci is moving forward.
Brown is a better skater than Ceci? How sure re you about that?
How sure are you that he isn’t? Because it’s not saying a whole lot.
It’s actually very easy tell. I was going to post something earlier but didn’t bother until now. Sierra is totally correct.
Neither Brown nor Stecher are better skaters than Ceci. Ceci covers more ground, and is physically faster.
Ceci
vs
Brown
vs
Stecher
It was like baiting a trap, then at 10:43, trap is sprung,.
Every off-season and training camp Oilers fans worry about youngsters getting claimed on waivers and every season they slide through.
Most recent worries were Lavoie and Benson – some convinced, with certainty, that the Habs or another would claim Lavoie last season.
They always clear.
They will also clear this October. Including Lavoie. Including Rodrigue. Including Kemp. Including Gleason.
Lavoie at league min this year, as opposed to $100K extra IS a factor. If he was $100K over, that would have given the likes of Hamblin, Philp and Pederson a real leg up – in particular if they go with the 21-player, right at the cap roster with no LTIR or trade, as possible.
So your saying there’s a zero percent chance that Lavoie or Rodrique get picked up off of waivers.
There is never a zero percent chance of anything but I think the chances of either getting picked up off waivers are very very very slim – as they were with the likes of Lavoie last year and Benson before him, etc., etc., etc.
I sure hope Lavoie is claimed or better yet, traded. I see no love for him in the organization, I think he has no chance to play in Edmonton.
Can’t see him having any trade value until AFTER he clears waivers, similar to Kostin/Samorukov, so the acquiring team can place him in the AHL.
He has a CHANCE to play in the NHL but the org has told him to change his game to be that fourth line grinder.
At the same time, Kostin created an NHL career out of that spot in the lineup…..
He’ll end up in Montreal or Ottawa by years end. He pissed in someone’s cornflakes within the organization. It makes zero sense not to give this big man that can score a opportunity.
You were adamant that Montreal would claim him last October…..
I do see a path to Lavoie on the opening roster if they are willing to waive both Perry and D. Ryan – he’s a $375K savings over Perry and that is a path to cap compliance without LTIR or a trade.
At the same time, Philp and Pederson and Hamblin are also a $375K cap savings to Perry.
Maybe its another organization – I mean, the organization has told Lavoie he’ll never play top 6 or PP in Edmonton and, essentially, he needs to turn in to a grinder who finishes all checks and plays hard on the defensive zone boards.
I think he can do it and will try and do it but really isn’t suited for that role nor wants to do it.
I see it as very unlikely Perry gets waived. Why sign him with to do that? He’s too storied to do that to and why would he sign in Edmonton if there was the AHL as a possibility, he doesn’t have time to waste
Ryan is the only vulnerable vet IMO. The only reason he’s till in the league is being a RS C that can win faceoffs. But who replaces him? It won’t be Philp for a while at least
I don’t think any prospects make the team because there isn’t a spot. Maybe Savoie later if his offense demands it
The D plan has yet to play out I think as well. I think someone is going at some point, unless Stecher and Brown were ok going down, but neither has for years now, just get scratched but are on the roster
I don’t think they’ll waive Perry right off the bat but i don’t think its out of the question.
Do you think that his cap hit being right at the amount that can be fully buried in the AHL is a coincidence?
I don’t think this will be the way they go but its the way forward if there is no additional trade or LTIR placement (unless they want to go with a 20 player opening night roster…..).
I think both Stecher and Brown signed knowing there is a good chance they will spend time in the AHL over the term of their contracts. They are both on one-way deals and will get paid in full during the AHL time.
I sure hope the plan doesn’t include Stecher/Brown as 6/7 or 7/6 – if both are on the healthy roster, well, that’s an issue, in my opinion.
Could Perry mentor in Bakersfield equally as well as Ryan? AS you say, it’s no coincidence Perry’s cap is the right amount to be fully buried in the AHL and I would say there’s no doubt both sides understand the situation.
I could see a path to them both being assigned to start the season for cap compliance reasons but it does seem unlikely that will happen.
I’d have to go through rosters but it would likey create, or add to, a “veteran issue” in Bako….
I dont think they waive him, but they do park him for long stretches.
He could be the 13th forward (although, right now, without LTIR or a trade, they don’t have room for a 13th forward, 12/7/2, and both Perry and Ryan need to be off the roster for compliance – of course, presuming Broberg and Holloway sign).
They don’t need to be cap compliant until the opening game of the season. I not sure why they just don’t sign Holloway & Broberg. They’ll probably be over the cap by somewhere under $3M. But as you well know there’s multiple ways to meet compliance before the season begins.
Holloway and Broberg will be signed in due course.
There is no real rush and these deals often get done in very late August or September.
Stauff did suggest that Broberg likely signs a 2-year deal in the next week or two but Holloway may drag a little longer.
It might make sense to wait if they are actually unsure on Kane’s status (I presume they have a solid idea of his status but aren’t providing official info) and aren’t planning on making a trade.
Holloway could get ground down below his QO to take “what’s left” similar to McLeod a few year’s back.
In that sense, it does make sense to wait as it could be an “every dollar matters” scenario come end of camp.
If they need to waive Perry, they will. At this stage of his career there won’t be many teams willing to risk claiming him if he’s only good as a locker room presence. He needs to perform on the ice.
Unless injuries …. there are very few vulnerable veterans on the roster. 2 forwards, rhd and maybe the backup goalie.
When Derek Ryan signed 2 x $900K last summer I thought: “that’s one year underpaid at the NHL level, and one year overpaid to mentor players in the AHL.”
Agree completely. I am personally rooting for Philp to take that rh4c w pk ability job.
Yup, it was the Holland ‘Mike Smith, one for the price of two’ contract special.
Kane’s health remains the wild card in every discussion regarding the makeup of the opening night roster.
.
Ive often appreciated but not sure if ever complimented you regarding:
Your deft ability to premptively address the most nonproductive narrative from overwhelming dialogue of post.
Hail LT “the preventer of dead horse beatings”!
Hope summer’s treated you kindly good sir. Much like yourself, at least i believe is your case, im getting there -> constructively forward because there is no other sensible path.
All good things,
Chris
P.s. personally cheering thst pederson gets a chance here first, above the rest. I just get a sense he’s likely the one that recognizes it will take everything, every game to not just make it but stay. He’s lived that since no one thought even worth betting on him having a chance to make it.
The movie “Rudy” may over exagerate value but like a undrafted guy reminding more gifted teammates what a priviledge it is to skate on that ice game in game out is far from non negligible IMO.
Pederson sure does have more offensive talent than I thought a year ago – not sure how much of a fit he is on an NHL fourth line though.
Interesting take on Brown. I have tried to read enough to get a feel for him, but it’s vague and I don’t have the time to watch Coyote games
His GP each season suggests a player that is a top end tweener and can’t establish an NHL level game. With his size and willingness to fight and that it seems he is mobile enough if he was a decent player someone would want him. Maybe that’s us
We wait
Yeah, the Oilers want him. He’s as good as Desharnais, in some areas better. When you look at Stecher the only thing he doesn’t have is size. IMO the team is way better off with the duo of Stecher & Brown then what they are with just Desharnais.
What tangible evidence is there that he is better than Deharnais aside from having more NHL experience (although notably less games in the NHL than Deharnais this past season).
He does not have good, even passing, results over the course of his career.
Either does Desharnais. Brown is more experienced and is also a better skater. And they certainly didn’t miss Desharnais on the PK during the playoffs. If anything, it may prove Vinny was overrated by many. A blessing in disguise that he’s now a Knucklehead
Needless to say, if Troy Stecher had size to go along with the rest of his game, he would be a top four Dman.
From accounts, yes, Brown is a better skater than Vinny.
Of course, McLeod is a better skater than Henrique, doesn’t make him a better player.
Josh Brown has often a healthy scratch on the Arizona Coyotes and the market set his contract at half of what Vinny got per season (and most aren’t sure why/how Brown got that much).
FWIW, Brown’s last two contracts, over four seasons, both had AAVs higher than the contract he signed with the Oilers.
Fair but I think we have to note they were for AAV’s of $1.275MM and $1.2MM so marginally more and, looking at the numbers, he underperformed them – healthy scratched on a poor to meh team and he was negative relative to his team across the board and all years.
Sure, though I also don’t know whether ‘most aren’t sure how he got $1M’ is fair or reasonable.
Brown is not a better skater. Source?
Brown
vs
Desharnais
Vinny also covered ice in the range of the 73rd percentile during the playoffs, so he ramped up his intensity when it mattered most.
Good morning LT, just wanted to say I hope you are having a great summer and thank you for your continuous efforts during these Ziggy days between seasons. Cheers!
Ziggy, you’re a beauty!
I see we’re at that part of the summer where we downvote dog appreciation comments.
Who downvotes a dog? Especially Ziggy
Must be a Flames fan… or HH
HH has two rescue dogs.
Same here TGO.
Anyone who loves animals, especially those who take in critters that have been mistreated and abused at the hands of others are alright in my books.
See HH! Didn’t that feel great! It’s way more gratifying to simply counter complete nonconstructive narratives with clear bias created for malicious intent than it is to create and defend them.
In the words of vader
“Join me and together we can rule the galaxy!!”
Methinks HH has a new identity…HOHO TGO!
Yet no one to rescue him….