These are the Leon Draisaitl “comparables” in May of 2018. How many players on this list would you rather have on your roster at this time, or for all-time?
THERE’S SAVINGS, BUT NOT DOWN EVERY AISLE
In reading yesterday’s comments about the Leon Draisaitl contract, I’m reminded of what happened in baseball years ago. As salaries increased and owners grew angry at having to pay the help large salaries, there was a day of reckoning for middle and lower mlb players.
After the 1993 mlb season, the Los Angeles Dodgers offered light hitting (but everyday second baseman) Jody Reed a contract for $2.6 million times three years. He turned it down. No one offered Reed much in free agency, and he eventually signed a one-year deal for $350,000 with the Milwaukee Brewers. That’s a market correction.
So, with Leon Draisaitl’s contract, arguing over a small amount of money isn’t the smart way. Even $500,000 annually isn’t as important as getting him under contract. I agree that an 8-year deal holds risk, but when this thing crashes it’s going to get ugly because the Oilers are trading draft picks and prospects a baker’s dozen at a time.
If the Oilers sign Draisaitl and McDavid to eight-year extensions, there’s a good chance we’ll be talking about ‘the dirty 30’s’ and an era of rebuilding.
In the NHL, that’s the circle of life. Someone texted the Lowdown yesterday suggesting the way to go this summer is dealing off LD and acquiring better depth. I strongly disagree. The top end of this roster is out of sight. If you ask the question “can the Oilers win with x playing x role?” the elite slots are covered with the best possible answers.
Who doesn’t want that? Sign Leon. Eight years, $14 million. Save your money at the other end of the roster, where the hockey Jody Reed lives. This is the way to do business, and thrifitng in the Draisaitl aisle is not the play here. All you’re going to do is angry up the blood and ensure the McDavid era is fruitless. Spend wisely in other areas.
The Lowdown hits planet earth at noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll talk about the jobs that are in question on the Oilers roster, about the Jays offseason that may bring surprises, the Elks trying to put together a winning streak and Canadians rolling at the Olympics. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I just thought of one more player for Drai’s comparables… Joe Colbourne.
Drai is my favorite current Oiler, and probably third fav all time after Gretz and Mess.
I say pay the man and keep him here, I would love to see him retire an Oiler, but, if something happens and talks break down and we start spitballing trade scenarios, thoughts on looking to Buffalo as a potential trade partner?
Dahlin, Power and Byram is just an embarrassment of riches for LD, and undoubtedly the Sabres would love a franchise superstar C, would they perhaps consider something like a Drai/Nurse for Dahlin/Tage Thompson swap?
Adding Dahlin wouldn’t solve our RD issue but would sure strengthen our overall D corps, and Thompson is no Drai, but a big C that can score would still pencil in nicely behind McDavid as our 2C.
It would also free up Kulak as potential trade bait to get a 2RD upgrade.
Skinner McD Hyman
Nuge Thompson Arvidsson
Janmark Henrique Brown
Holloway Ryan/Philp Perry/Lavoie
Kane inserted as necessary when healthy.
Ekholm Bouch
Dahlin New2RD
Broberg Ceci
Obviously lots to overcome re: NMCs etc, but for toots and tickles, thoughts? Would that make us better? Worse? Equal to?
Draisaitl is a better player than Thompson is … but is he twice as good? Thompson is a RHC who is locked in for 7.1 million for the next 6 seasons, this being his age 27 season. Leon is 3 years older, and by all reports about get paid almost twice as much for the next 8 seasons. As great of a player he is now, the last couple seasons of that deal are going to late-career Malkin-esque.
That’s before we even get to a Dahlin for Nurse swap. Dahlin is the better player now, and that delta will only get more pronounced as these players age, as Dahlin is entering his prime seasons at age 24, and Nurse is basically what he is (a highly overpaid 2nd pairing LHD) at age 29. Dahlin is locked in at 11 million for the next 8 seasons, and was the number 1 pick in Bouchard’s draft year, which should help to cap Bouchard’s next deal around 10 million.
We should also consider how recent Cup champs were built by pilfering the Sabres talent, and the likely 5 million dollars difference in salary cap space we would gain, which helps pay for the new 2nd pairing RHD.
Another way to look at things is … Leon for Dahlin, and Thompson for Nurse … the first deal is a win for Buffalo, but as those two players age, Dahlin may end up being the more valuable player over the next aggregate 7 seasons. Thompson for Nurse is a landslide victory for the Oilers today and for every day after.
Taking the emotion out of it … the team may take a step back next season, but would likely be better off in the future. BUT … I really want to see Leon Draisaitl get handed the Cup from Connor McDavid in June 2025
And that’s the thing … it’s so hard to win the Cup, and Oilers are absolutely stacked … there’s just no way I’d trade Leon this season.
So just sign the man, and then figure the rest out later.
I see the logic in “pay them what they want” but for the past few years this team has been tortured by pressing up to and into the cap and I believe it has limited the teams success. A few hundred thousand dollars here and there add up and make a significant difference in what this team can accomplish. If the goal is Stanley as stated then these players should help bridge the gap. They will have $$$ in their families for generations.
Team and player friendly contracts like
15.5 – 97
13.5 – 29
9.5 – 2
a bit of a “deal” for the team. $1.5M/y will pay for some significant upgrades elsewhere in the lineup. Their career actual earnings will be marginally less while the likelihood of 1+ SCs is significantly improved.
Excuse me for going a bit off-topic here. Long-term (10+ years) readers of this site will recall LT frequently posting a short video of a bouncing, ebullient hurdler before a race. She is an Australian named Michelle Jenneke who is also a model. She is 31 now and still competing, having set a personal best earlier this year. She also ran today at the Olympics, but didn’t make the final as she was slowed down by an injury from an earlier race. Just thought the old-timers might appreciate the memory.
.
Michelle had the best warmup routine in track and field. For those of you that haven’t seen her prepare to race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iborxEd070o&pp=ygUOamVuZWtlIHdhcm0gdXA%3D
Legend
Just popped in to read some LT and add my two cents about the minutia discussed by the regs.
McDavid 16
Drai 14
Bouchard 10
Max deals
Done.
This is not the teams preference or the players preference. This is just what it will be when its all said and done (imo… though I’m sure that’s evident).
Going out to play some basketball with the fellas (and a gal with a great three pointer).
Enjoy the summer.
I would squeeze Bouchard down to $9 million. No one else will pay him that much for McDraivid inflated numbers. Where else is better than here? He cannot find a better situation for his skills. Squeeze him.
I suggested $8.9 the other day and was responded to with derision. I still think it will be in that neighbourhood depending on his coming season.
$9.35M
You realize that the ice remains tilted big time in the Oilers favor (apx 58% across the board, goal share, corsi, fenwick) with Bouchard away from McDavid.
In fact the Oilers do better with Bouchard and no McDavid than with McDavid and no Bouchard.
$14MM on a max term deal would very much be Drai’s preference I’m sure.
Klefbom officially retired in an interview with the local news in Karlstad where he now lives. Not exactly shocking news and he explains in the interview why it took him so long to make it official(it’s almost on the day four years since he played his last game against Chicago in the Covid playoffs).
“It’s a choice I made. I talked with the Oilers that I wanted to lay very low with what was going to happen and what the situation was. And they were completely fine with it. From my perspective it was also because I had a real hard time talking about it.”
“So that’s why I kept the lid on, even towards media. A lot of people have asked over the years what was happening and if I’ll ever play again. It’s been mentally tough.”
The reason he quit was, as is pretty common knowledge, his shoulder injury that he got in 2012. It haunted him the rest of his career and he played the last five years injured. Constantly. As in every practice, every game.
Eventually his stomach broke down due to eating NSAIDs every day and taking cortison shots, that’s when they decided to have surgery and get complete shoulder replacement. He was told one bad hit to the replaced shoulder could mess it up for life.
“I didn’t love the idea of having issues for the rest of my life, not being able to lift my kids or enjoy things in life. On the other hand I was almost prepared to risk anything because I enjoy being on the ice more than anything-especially in Edmonton since I felt we had something special going.”
“I’m really happy with my career. I’m just glad I got the chance to play as many games as I did-even if I played them injured. I was trusted with a lot of minutes, got the chance to be on a fantastic journey. It’s really two sides of the coin-because even though I’m truly grateful for my career I’d loved to have been able to be on the ice today. As a player.” (The interview was made at Färjestad’s first practice on ice for the season)
In the interview he also mentions that he’s barely seen any Oiler games since he stepped away four years ago since it hurts too much.
He wants to get back into hockey in some form eventually.
He’s just had a kid(born with a six pack, obviously) and is building a house in Karlstad where he was born.
Edmonton’s first full-career Oiler.
Loved watching his silky smooth stride and his big brain at work.
The org is well ahead of us here. They know the Leon cost and they are well aware of upcoming contracts.
Thus we see the obvious moves to grab some younger skilled players to fill roles and draft some role specific (aggressive) players. They can see what is needed.
Unless they have identified someone in Bakersfield, you just know they are scouring every league for that young, inexpensive right hand d-man.
Jody Reed = Darnell Nurse
If we want to keep Leon, Connor and Bouch long term, then Nurse has to go … probably for peanuts in a year from now.
Nurse is more important to winning the Cup than Bouchard.
Nurse needs to bounce-back to his historical norms and established levels of play and be an elite 3D but lets not kid ourselves – Bouchard is the #1 d-man on this team and his elite play is essential to team success.
Bouchard played 11 minutes per game more than Nurse in the playoffs – ELEVEN.
Power play time, and the OIlers were playing mostly 5-man units.
Like Coffey in the eighties, I would prefer to have Bouchard than not, but elite offensive D are a luxury, not a necessity.
Bouchard played over 4 minutes per game more than Nurse at 5 on 5.
Bouchard also played more than Nurse when the Oilers were leading.
Bouchard is an elite offensive d-man, he’s also an elite 2-way d-man. He’s one of the best defenders of the entire d-group.
“Bouchard played 11 minutes per game more than Nurse in the playoffs – ELEVEN.”
2024 Playoff Points (all):
Draisaitl 31
Bouchard 32
2024 Playoff Points (5v5):
Draisaitl 14
Bouchard 16
2024 Playoff TOI (all):
McDavid 575:48 (23 min per game)
Bouchard 525:27 (25 min per game)
”2024 Playoff TOI (all):
McDavid 575:48 (23 min per game)
Bouchard 525:27 (25 min per game)”
Bouchard played 625:27. Not 525.27. 50 more minutes than McDavid. 50.
By this time next summer, Nurse will be the 3rd best LHD on the roster after Broberg shows the coaching staff that he has more hockey sense in his own zone than Nurse has ever demonstrated.
You old punk. Argumentum ad a dad dad na na na nausem. Don’t you think that society could do with a few more cow cow co c co cowards?
This should be taken as an inside joke in reference to godot10’s avatar.
You are right that Nurse is, but just not for the reasons you think.
I could be wrong – but unless Nurse reclaims the 1LD slot this season – he never will. Broberg may be the better overall dman soon and you can’t pay your 2LD $9 million plus. Of course you can keep him and pay half our cap to 5 guys and give the bottom 6 forwards and bottom 3 dmen minimum wage – but how’s that going to work out? Badly would be my guess.
There was an article at the cult of hockey regarding the cap hits of the top 2 players.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/memo-to-edmonton-oilers-no-team-has-won-stanley-cup-with-a-player-earning-more-than-10-million
Out of this I focused on cap % not dollar value. I have to say it’s pretty rare for a team with close to 30% cap for 2 players to win the cup.
I guess this means that Connor & Leon are going to have to sign for $10M each for the next 8 years, along with Bouchard. Okie Dokie.
Never said that. I do think signing both Leon and Connor to what they are worth will mean we enjoy a lot of good hockey over the next decade but reduces our odds at cups past this next season.
Even if they moved Nurse, if it’s 16/14/10, that’s 40M 41% of the cap when Connor’s kicks in if the cap is 98M. That would be the highest % ever I would think. With Nurse 4 players 49.25M 50% of the cap
The Leafs top 4 forwards are 46.6M for example,next season that’s 50%, but the year following Tavares is coming off and Marner
Not necessarily .
OK. So here is the very early best guess 2026-27 roster.
It is based upon two more years of $5M increases in the cap taking it to $98M.
That is not the maximum because the maximum increase is a % of the previous year but it is close enough for this exercise and based upon increased revenue across the board as well as Utah vs Arizona. It is important to remember that the cap does not control costs. It is designed to guarantee the split between capital (owners) and labour (players) while ensuring that it rises steadily since increasing operational costs drive revenue streams to higher levels.
This is based upon the team not trading anybody currently under contract for that season.
That said, here we go.
For the 2026-27 season the Oilers have fixed costs of $24,811,667 consisting of the contracts for Hyman, Nuge, Savoie, Janmark, Nurse & Campbell.
I signed Draisaitl ($14M), McDavid ($17.5M), Bouchard ($10M), and Skinner ($5.2M) as the big ticket items amongst those currently on the team for a total of $46.7M and I now have a 9 player roster costing $71,511,667.
I then projected contract extensions for those currently Oiler property – all signed as soon as possible to lock them in.
Philp as 4th line centre for 3 years at $1.25, Jarventie at $.8 for two years, as a 3rd line player, and Holloway at $1.8M for 2 years also on the 3rd line for a total of $3.85M. I then scoured the UFA market and picked up a 4RW and 13th forward for a combined total of $1.65M taking my payroll to $77,011,667.
I now have a 14 man roster.
Amongst the forwards I am missing a 1LW and 3C,
I then re-signed Ekholm for two years at $3M and Broberg at $2.5M to fill out the LD. Wanner signed for 2 years at $.8 for the 3RD & went to the UFA market for a 7D at $.8M leaving 2RD unaccounted for.
This added $7.1M so I am now at $84,111,667M and when I add my backup goalie at the bargain price of $.9M I now have an 18 man roster costing me $85,011,667 leaving me with $12,988,333 to find a 1LW, 3C and 2RD.
I left Akey and O’Reilly out of this exercise as long shots but deserving HM.
1LW – $5M
2RD – $5M
3C – $2.8M
All a little light so maybe one of those spots has to be a TD pickup but nothing most contending teams wouldn’t be dealing with.
Suggestions?
The league has been operating under a M.O.U. that expires September 15 2026.
It is expected the NHLPA, under new leadership in Marty Walsh, will be more militant.
This may lead to substantial increases in compensation for players on ELCs and league minimum deals making projections very difficult.
“The league has been operating under a M.O.U. that expires September 15 2026.
It is expected the NHLPA, under new leadership in Marty Walsh, will be more militant.
This may lead to substantial increases in compensation for players on ELCs and league minimum deals making projections very difficult.”
100 percent. But this could equally create a situation where a longer contract is not in a player’s best interest if there are radical changes to HRR and revenue sharing.
Since 2018 there’s been a 20 percent increase in NHL revenue and a 5 percent increase in cap. During the same period, the Oilers’ valuation has gone from $540M to 1.9B. Something is going to change. To what extent, I’m not certain.
I honestly think McDavid & Draisaitl will come in at a lower cost than you suggest. I’m going to say the duo sign for somewhere less than $30M. This will allow the team a little more leeway to sign not only Bouchard & Skinner, but the rest of the team also falling into place at a reasonable pay scale from top to bottom. Making the number work is an ongoing process.
However, both Connor & Leon understand what it takes to win and will sacrifice some to make it happen and the rest will follow suit. I have faith it will come to be as long as the cap keeps increasing at a healthy rate. Your post confirms we’re close to the same page.
I went higher than I think on McDavid, Draisaitl & Bouchard just so that it wouldn’t be possible for those who think we are on the verge of cap disaster to dismiss the other projections.
The disaster is much more likely to be due to aging curves.
I can’t see Leon aging out more than say Kopitar-Malkin if Leon is injury riddled later in his career you play the Stone LTIR game where you have 13.5 million to play with and then old man Leon is ready for the real season.
The N.H.L. Is somewhat of a brotherhood especially the higher up you go on the food chain. If Leon and Connor take too much of a haircut it’ll piss off players renewing contacts after them. Don’t nickel and dime Leon when it comes to money and years. Pay the man he deserves it and so do we. The alternative will be your trying to trade Leon in season which could become nasty.
Crosby took discounts on two contract extensions leaving room to pay Malkin.
I don’t see the brotherhood pissed off at him for trying to win.
That said, I also agree about not pinching pennies with Leon… pay the top end talent and everyone else can take a discount to ride their coattails to glory.
Bouchard has sacrificed tens of millions in career earnings already.
Would you suggest he do more?
Holland cock blocked Bouchard for almost 2 years. The reason Peter drafted Evan over Dobson was that Bouchard was closer to being N.H.L ready. Bouchard should be way more advanced he just learned how to be a 2 way D the 2nd half of the year. Thank heavens for his mentor EKholm ( Hollands best trade ever) it’ll take a few extra million on his next contract to catch up to Dobson with Evan looking to be the pick soon over the entire excellent field of D-men in his draft year.
cock-blocked him? Well, that is an interesting management style. Poor guy.
For those of you who may be newer to the site, The Great One, aka, Harpers Hair, suggested just two years ago that Bouchard was not an NHL player.
How can Bouchard be so good that he “sacrificed” tens of millions of dollars but also be so bad that he doesn’t deserve to be in the NHL?
Great question – but no one knows the answer, not even HH.
Wasn’t Andrew going by DSF prior to HH?
The if is if the management can pull it off with the others. JJ has shown acumen, Bowman is a mystery
It’s not a foregone conclusion that just because they want to do the right things in broadening the look for helpful players they mentioned wanting to do, that they can execute
This deal defines the end of Connor and Leon’s careers, and the Oilers fortunes for nearly a decade. It’s easy to say Leon is a great player and scores goals, but there is plenty of evidence that there are issues still
Maybe having better wingers will solve the problems. Just like getting Nurse a better partner will bring his game around to where it should be. If these things don’t happen there are big obstacles to overcome
Given the situation signing Leon is the best course of action, there isn’t really a trade that is a better choice. If there was one I think it would be a discussion to take seriously
The player’s priority is to win some Stanley cups. That’s the organization’s goal as well.
Somewhere along the away both sides need to come together and do the right thing.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t the highest paid player in the NFL, he’s not even top 6 in guaranteed money for QB, and he’s the best
At the end of the day, Connor and Leon are entering their 10th full seasons, and the furthest they have gotten is one finals. It’s not their fault, but they have a part in it, taking so long to learn how they have to play to win a cup. The best players lead the way. This playoffs and last were the first ones Connor got over GF% 50 5v5 in the last round, this time the two last, Leon hasn’t yet. Regardless of reasons, these are their results at the most key moments so far
Because it’s taken a decade, they have no time to waste. Future deep runs aren’t guaranteed. They can’t sacrifice a few seasons and wait until their cap share is reduced by cap inflation, so there is more money to get more better players, that ship has sailed. If they want a shot at more than one cup, or even one
So yes, Drai Bouch and Connor need to be at least somewhat team friendly. For me given that Connor left millions on the table last time, he will again, so that is the Oiler standard, and like Mahomes he wants a legacy and cups more than anything else
There is no better chance elsewhere if winning is what they want, it’s best together. But the roster is 23, not 3, and leaving it up to management to find good cheap players while they get paid in full, well that’s a bet that recent Oiler history says may not be a good one
Proceed the downvoting
The NFL cap is weird and complicated. In terms of actual cash flow..i.e. dollars in hand…Mahomes will be highest paid NFL’er this year.
That’s what I’m talking about.
He sure did maybe he gets a little gift when he becomes management after he retires. I hope Leon&Connor sign max deals then become partners as G.M’s in Edmonton after their playing careers are over. I’ll be dead and gone but the newer Oiler fans will be bitching and complaining about the OBC with Connor-Leon-Nuge not winning Cups just like McTavish and Lowe couldn’t get it done ancient history ago where that MacTavish fellow played with no helmet.
I agree with this – the important thing is to get the man signed, however, that doesn’t mean that some outcomes are more preferred than others.
I have gone on record as stating that preferred term for the org should be around 4-5 years and anything over 5 years SHOULD reduce the AAV.
In year 6, he’ll be 35 in the October of that season. 35-38 year seasons should cost less than 30-35 no?
5 years is preferred for me but I have ZERO issue with him signing for 8 – get it done and I’ll be so happy that this giant will be an Oiler for life.
I think that 8 years SHOULD be $13MM or even lower but I appreciate that the Matthews $13.25MM may be the floor.
I don’t think the Matthews AAV should be comparable to a Drai 8 year deal given, well, the Matthews contract is for pure prime years whereas the Dra contract will contain many regression years and 3 over 35 years – that shouldn’t be comparable.
So, I think this contract SHOULD be 4-5 years X $14MM OR 8 years X $13MM (or even below).
At the same time, I understand we are trending towards 8 years X $13.8MM and I’m not going to bitch and complain about that “extra $800K” (in my opinion) but will definitely acknowledge that it wouldn’t be the ideal contract as it relates to winning.
If its over $14MM then, again, I’ll be happy that he’s signed but that would be getting in to “uh oh” category when you think about McDavid coming over the top.
Another factor to consider is the NMC status as the contract hits those 35 and over years.
I’d be surprised if there isn’t a full NMC for the entire terms.
For me, that’s kind of just a given.
And signing bonuses.
The Nurse contract is structured in such a fashion that it is buyout proof.
We can only learn from our past mistakes.
I don’t get this 4-5 year contract talk. Why would Leon sign that when he can go long with basically the same Money. Leon and Luit aren’t brain- dead they want a max deal with full control of a trade destination if it ever comes to that.
Maybe a team friendly contract is desirable for both sides.
If Leon and Connor want to be greedy they’ll hit the free agent frenzy. You can’t expect to see Leon and Connor take a huge discount. Take for example you on your job would you take a 25% reduction so that Dave whose lazy and quite frankly useless gets overpaid with the money saved off of your back.
Ummm, strawman argument I’ve been very clear that a 4-5 year deal is best for the org but the player will want 8 because he’ll get more in those last 3-4 years per season than he would if he was signing at 34-35.
The point is the extra years should bring the AAV down given the player will be 35-38 in those years.
The advantage is we can offer a extra year where as if Leon goes into free agency the offering team can only go 7 years. So no matter how good Leon is at 37 no team is offering him 14 million for 1 season. I’m pretty sure you already know this. The talking heads for the Oilers will paint it at 14.5 per year Leon will settle in the 13’s and they’ll be a big party for Bowman and Action Jackson.
Another strawman.
We are talking 4-5 year term vs. max term.
The AAV on a 7 or 8 year deal SHOULD be less than a 4-5 year deal for a player this age.
I’m not so sure its going to be.
Again Leon is not signing a 4-5 year deal for 16 million a year when he can get 8 years at 13.5 with NTC. You pay your big 3 and pick-up the Skinners Henririque Arvidssons on team friendly deals and you make shrewd deals like Savoie-Jarventie-O’Reilly all 3 that will be cheap and be a factor if we’re to win multiple cups.
Again, no-one said he’s signing for 4-5 years.
I apologize I don’t know why I’m going on about 4-5 year contract? Someone or something triggered me with this Walt Disney fairy tale scenario.
I think the only slam dunk is obviously Patrice Bergeron.
Pasta, Mark Stone (when healthy), and Rantanen are all formidable players but forced to choose just one, I’d take Draisaitl every day.
Havlat was a beauty, but I still take Leon. Nash was electric but he didn’t have the sustain to make a fair comparison. Filip Forsberg marvellously skilled, but a tier below with the likes of Duchene, Benn, Gagne, et al.
It’s not Draisaitl who needs to take the major hometown discount, it’s McDavid.
Draisaitl was a major value contract 6 of the 8 years of his previous deal. He deserves to get paid a 9-figure contract.
McDavid, while also a value contact from the very beginning, can afford to sacrifice dollars for the Oilers to maximize their competitive window.
If they both sign for $13.5M they’ll be the highest paid players in the sport while giving their team a shot to win every year.
Trying to tell the best player in the world to take a further discount while carrying the team on his back for the better part of a decade is folly.
Everyone else can take a cut to be on his team.
That’s how I see it. I also don’t ignore Leon has not been healthy enough in later rounds three seasons running. I have previously put up his production and it has declined pretty steeply. It’s pro sports, championships are all over that matters even if you can’t win every year , it’s every team’s goal, the point of it all
I see where you’re coming from, but I don’t quite follow. Correct me if you’re wrong, but it seems as though you’re suggesting that Leon has peaked?
Personally speaking, I won’t count out Leon still being able to put up career years going forward. As in plural.
Not saying he’s peaked, but that when the chips are down Leon hasn’t been there. It’s been injuries, but those are his results. If you can’t get through playoffs healthy enough to pull your weight, that’s a part of the story
That being said while I can see Connor continually adding to his game, I don’t see Leon as having changed his game much in the last few seasons – other than saying he thinks he’s learned to do more doing less because of the ankle sprain, which I don’t buy at all – so I expect this is him at his peak
The whole team needs to take a discount to make the money work, in order to win the cup.
Except Leon signed at the top of the range then, that was a risk for the team. Contracts gain cap value if the cap goes up, nature of the beast
Connor did team friendly. Nurse also took more than full value. I think if Connor did that everyone should a little, showing their commitment to winning cups
Leon extended at the top of the range of his comps, at that time. His continued development put him into another tier of player, the cream of the elite, which in and of itself was enough to make his contract a value deal. Probably even more so than relative value based on his AAV’s percentage of the cap.
His contract turned out to be value, but he was paid at the top when he signed the deal, so he didn’t miss out so to speak. He doesn’t need to make up on missed money or the like
Disclaimer: I am not specifically endorsing the following comment. It’s simply an alternative to LT’s verbal I’ve quoted. A thought experiment, if you will.
There is a path to victory through trading Leon, but the crucial part is manifested through several key factors: an elite player returning, gaining value on the cap, player must be just into or entering his prime years, and adds balance to an imbalanced part of the roster.
As far as I can tell, the only player that ticks all of those boxes is Charlie McAvoy. Perhaps there are others who fit the bill (interested to hear, if that’s the case).
That top-4 would be absolutely lethal, although I’m not sure the resulting drop off of depth in the top-6 at centre would be worth the trade.
Having said that, $14MM-$9.5MM is $4.5MM, which goes a long ways for a quality 2C.
Food for thought.
This certainly is an option if Leon’s negotiations go nutty. The math needs to work out, not only for Leon, but for the team.
I think you just explained why Boston would not make that trade. ????
Perhaps, but name a viable player worth trading Leon for (hypothetically, of course).
A player who satisfies your parameters is Quinton Byfield.
21 years old…locked up for 5 years at $6.25 million.
The $7 million difference in cap hit plus other assets obtained in a trade (a RD?) would have enormous benefit.
Doubt LA would bite.
Any trade of Draisaitl would need to completely satisfy team needs and more.
MacKinnon
MacKinnon makes $12,600,00 for the next four years. How about if Draisaitl takes
$12,700,00 for the next four years? That’s a fine comparable. Is that reasonable?
They’re both 28 years young.
Teams rarely win trades they have to make because of money. If they are in their window to win and don’t want picks & prospects it is pretty much impossible. I was just pointing out that Boston has always been a team careful to control their internal roster cap hits.
Rebuilding after watching the full careers of 97 and 29 in Oilers uni’s will be similar to having a nap after downing half an ice cream cake. Easy peasy.
14×8 whatever.
$14M AAV seems to be the over/under here. Anything less represents a hometown discount, and anything over represents Draisaitl hard-balling the team.
Is $16M AAV the equivilent figure for McDavid?
Anything under combined AAV of (gulp) $30M is probably a bargain.
Once I type that out I get anxiety about the rest of the roster, but this is the reality.
I don’t agree that high $13s represents a hometown discount on an 8 year term. It does on a 5-year term but they are not the same.
That’s my opinion though – others have differing opinion and there is no “right answer”.
IMO the supporting cast needs to be able and willing to contribute. Scrimping on their level of pay can only make it tougher to fill out the roster with the quality of players that is required to win a Stanley cup. We’ve seen the level of play drop off quite noticeably when the stars aren’t on the ice, only this season things have leveled up and the result was game seven in the cup final one goal loss. The stars realize this, the verbal from Leon was that he would be willing to take less if others did as well. if the guys at the top are taking less well obviously there’s more for the fourth line center who’s taking less too. It’s a simple concept. But no selfish team is going to win a Stanley cup, that’s this team’s goal and they want to do it together. That’s all I have to say.
Didn’t someone ( maybe Stauffer) report that Drai,McD and Bouchard were all willing to take discounts in order to be at the top of the heap for years to come.
I don’t recall that coming from Bob, think it was a c-grade podcast like Two Mutts or similar. Encouraging, though, if true.
It was the podcast twitter that put that out a couple of weeks back. The fact that they were first to essentially confirm the Bowman hiring before it happened makes me more inclined to believe them and that they may have legit sources, including Bob himself who is a regular on their show.
It was 2 Mutts but they are also an extension of Stauff – convinced that’s where they get their info (Stauff is on their pod multiple times per year).
Stauff intimated $14MM plus AAV for Drai earlier this week.
Sure, someone said that. So, is $14M to Drai a discount? I don’t think it is.
Its not and its actually an over-pay on a 8-year deal.
Great post LT. IF HE WANTS 14/8 pay the man. It will probably make he and his buddy extra happy. Happy stars , equals happy team. I do wonder what the hometown discount that some of the local media have talked about and where and if that comes into the equation.
I am really interested to see where Bouchard’s contract is going to come in at. If Drai is wanting 14 – 14.5 mill and thinking that is a team friendly deal, he may want 10-11
McDavid 16. Sure those guys deserve to get paid , but those are really not team friendly deals .
Team friendly deals would be ( this is my opinion of course)
Drai 13.3. Puts him above Matthews
Bouchard longterm ( 8 years) 9.3. Puts him above that Nurse contract or do they bridge him again at 2 years per 7. Or does his agent even go for that .
McD 14.5/8
i really have no idea where any of those contracts will go
Amen. $14 million x 8 plus or minus a bit for Draisaitl is fine and the way to go. One squeezes elsewhere.
Its “fine” but its far from ideal given he’ll be 30 when that deal kicks in and 38 when it finishes.
I think we can, and should be able to, discuss the ranges of what we consider acceptable.
Wise words LT. At some point, everyone has to pay the piper for success, so the key is to maximize success while the window was open and you do that with Drai.
The point you and Bruce McCurdy made on the show yesterday about lesser depth helped (words to the effect that they can’t all play at the same time to replace Leon – or words to that effect).
Also, thanks for including the tidbit about Jody Reed. Played 2nd base at Florida State in the early 80’s (while I was at school there). Definite fan favorite. The TV show “Dallas” was big back then and we’d chant and cheer for “our JR”. Good hitter, solid fielder and when he made it with the Bosox, we cheered like mad for the guy.
Yes sir. We are lucky to have a bunch of quality veterans with a few good years left in the $4 to 5 million range (yes Kane is fading, but he is gone at deadline if needed). The bottom 3 to 4 forwards, and #6/7 dmen need to be entry level or below $1 million. Only way a two superstar lineup can win.
It’s also why not making massive overpays (Nurse at $9 plus million versus $7 million ish) is the number one job of the new GM. Keep your true top stars and be cut throat on your middle stars. Take a lower number to try and have a true shot to win, or leave (Henrique a perfect example).
Kane was pretty much banged up all year. Remember the bad loosing streak he was the only guy playing quite well . He scored most of his goals early. Let’s hope when he steps back on the ice he is at 100%. I think he will be fine if he is
Yes, I do remember Kane playing very well to start the year.
Part of the reason Leon can’t get $14M is because of Nurses massive overpay. It’s the new GM’s job to get the money under control and reasonably fair for the complete roster as a whole. That Nurse overpay was on the old GM.
It was on Chiarelli as much as Holland. If not more. Going long on Nurse to the tune of 8x$5.5MM was the obvious play from day one.
And while we’re at it Bob Nicholson’s hands aren’t clean in this regard, either. Remember, he is on the record saying he approved the disastrous 4x$4.5MM extension for Koskinen the day before he fired Chiarelli.
The past doesn’t even exist anymore, come to think of it the future doesn’t exist yet either. Whoa!! Deep.
I know Nurse was on old GM. Point is that Bowman has to avoid the overpay to middle range players. Do that and we have the money to pay top end talent without sacrificing as much on the bottom end.
Example. Bouchard will get around $10 million. Plus or minus a bit if it’s 8 years. And I love Ekholm. Resigning him at 4 mill, not 6 5 mill is the smart play. Overpay Ekholm on his retirement deal and we sacrifice the bottom pair too much.
I’m right there with you. Though I don’t think anyone would resign an aging Ekholm to the same deal he got through his prime years. 4x$4MM seems about right.
Whoa – he’ll be 36 to start the deal.
He’s likely worth a re-sign but not until he’s 40 and I’m not sure if $4MM x 2 will be warranted.
2 more full seasons of tear when he’s 34 and 35 coming up.
Good catch, I had it in my head he was a couple years younger. My bad for not double checking (as I typically do) before posting.
One or two year deals after this one would seem more prudent.
Holland could have signed nurse at around 8 as his ask was in that range.
Not sure why they would even consider paying Nurse more than Draisaitl in the first place?
And Chia could (and should) have signed Nurse 8x$5.5MM before that.
This is a much different team with Nurse on that deal.