If we’re looking at the most experienced RH defenseman available to play second-pairing minutes with Darnell Nurse, the answer is Troy Stecher. Is Stecher a good style fit for Nurse? Who is a good style fit for Nurse? You know, it’s a difficult question to answer.
NURSE WITH CECI
Everyone agrees that sample size is important until the playoffs. When the postseason hits, even those who worship at the feet of analytics deny reason three times before the cock crows. Cody Ceci with Darnell Nurse played 2576 five-on-five minutes over the past three regular seasons. Corsi was 51 percent, Fenwick and shots were 50 percent, goals 51 percent and expected goals 52 percent. Now, I’m not arguing for that pairing, but the two men did deliver 50 percent (or a little better) of everything and represented a solid fallback position in times of trouble.
Nurse with Evan Bouchard have played 747 minutes together since 2021-22. The two men delivered 59 percent Corsi, 58 percent Fenwick, 57 percent shot share, 46 percent goal share and 59 percent expected goal share in those minutes. Everything but he goal shines like a diamond. Is that bad luck? Positioning? Slow to recognize danger? One offs that should be disregarded? I want to express a thought and could mangle it, but I think it’s worth discussing. Many of these minutes involved Bouchard before the spike, and I’m not certain the two men would deliver the same numbers now that Bouchard has emerged as an impact defenseman.
Nurse with Tyson Barrie played 414 minutes over the last three seasons. They were 52 percent Corsi, 49 percent Fenwick, 51 percent shots, 49 percent goals and 53 percent expect goals.
I’m struck by two thoughts: It doesn’t seem to matter who Nurse plays with, 50 percent of everything seems to be the bottom line. Second, the styles of these men are different enough that I think we can conclude a specific “style” match being preferred might just be an idea or fantasy as opposed to reality.
I don’t like the idea of Nurse-Emberson, but don’t believe in Nurse-Stecher either. However, in a small sample, Nurse-Stecher (48 minutes) had a 50 Corsi, 51 Fenwick, 54 shots, 3-0 goals and 59 percent expected goals. It isn’t much, but it’s worth a discussion.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Thursday on the Lowdown, so we’ll talk CFL, Oilers and MLB between noon and 2pm on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will be out feature guest, and we’ll discuss Nurse-Stecher as a possible solution. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
JP, here are some microstats for Borgan.
https://x.com/ShutdownLine/status/1677454189436325891
The Oilers have precious few holes and only one (2RD) is important.
Kane McD Hyman
Skinner Drai Arvidson
RNH Rico Brown
Pod/Janmark xxx/Ryan Perry/Savoie
In terms of forwards.- the top 9 is utterly stacked. I’d like a younger RH 4C who can PK than Ryan who has pretty much aged out. I’d only count on him at the beginning of the year but not for the playoffs. Let Perry and Savoie split 4RW. There is a ton the wily old vet could teach the kid. Let’s see what Pod can do in TC.
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm xxx
Kulak Emberson/Stetcher/Brown
I think you have to play Nurse at 1RD and let Ekholm babysit someone with easier minutes (maybe Stecher). Kulak and Emberson sounds like a good third pair. 2RD is the only significant hole and we have all season to fill it. The target is Larsson to play with Ek on the 2nd pair and I think Larsson might find that appealing for a few months. We will also just happen to have enough accrued cap space after January 1 to pull that deal off.
Skinner/Pickard with Rodrique in waiting – nothing to do here
So get get Nurse/Bouchard established on the top defense pair, Kulak-Emberson sorted on the 3rd pair, and let Ekholm babysit a lesser player at 2RD in the short-term. The hard target is Larsson, and if he really wants to play in EDM short-term, the price might be less than expected.
Willing to be wrong here, but to fit Savoie on the opening roster and account for his bonus, they’d have to be in LTIR.
Adds an interesting wrinkle, if accurate.
Would be a solid test of the new GM and his team building philosophy.
The bonus issues, as far as this year’s cap, is only an issue if they are in LTIR and it would be important to have Savoie on the NHL roster at the time they go in to LTIR
Yes. For sure.
I had read a tweet about needing to use LTIR just to fit Savoie. Although now that I think of it more, they could just send someone else down who they think would clear and recall them later.
99% sure that as of now, after the various recent moves, that Savoie would fit under the cap as the 23rd man on the roster even if Kane is not on LTIR.
No need to waive anyone who’s expected to be on the roster.
https://puckpedia.com/team/edmonton-oilers
Get nurse mad and turn him loose. You get one most physically gifted skaters in the league. Strong, aggressive, good shot, fast.
Who is this guy??
Why can’t somebody manage Darnell? Bring out the best? Control the chaos?
Man I’d like to see the player this guy can be.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Kane-Philp-Podkolzin
xxx-Pederson-Perry
xxx-Savoie-Ryan
xxx-xxx-Lavoie
Maybe we should take a break from the defence and spend a minute piecing together one more line that’ll work? Do we need another LW? Or a C?
Yes please. Find a third line. With speed and aggression.
Kane-Henrique-Savoie / Podkolzin
Janmark-Philp-Brown
I have Janmark as 4LW and one of Podz or Lavoie as 3LW (or Kane if he can play).
Yes, I have no hesitation “breaking up” the 3rd line from the SCF.
The last three playoffs don’t look great for Nurse’s fancies, with the last two being more problematic. Across the last three playoffs many measures are close to 45. On-ice numbers from natural stat trick are mirrored in zone time, which dropped below 40% for all defenders with the exception of Bouchard and Ekholm this playoffs.
Nurse’s playoffs were foreshadowed by these regular season measures:
1.Nurse’s Hockey Viz expected goals WOWYs
2.Nurse’s PuckIQ scores vs elites, especially GF%.
A lot of the problems come from bad habits and poor decision making. I don’t think a partner changes those aspects for Nurse. Only Nurse himself can change poor decisions on 50/50 pucks, large gaps, or as commented elsewhere by Ryan, the direction his skates point when he’s in front of the net.
There are a lot of factors that influence zone time. One that bothered a lot by eye during the playoffs was an inability at times to exit.
We tend to look at Nurse, and want to pair him with a different defender in order to improve exits. While a puck mover like Bouchard can help with the big play, the creation of odd man rushes, more pedestrian breakouts fall to forwards to execute, with the defenders retrieving the puck and supplying it to the wingers to move it into the neutral zone.
I mention this because under Knoblauch Nurse’s most commonly partnered winger was Kane in both the playoffs and regular season. Draisaitl was the most common centre. The corgis with Draisaitl were quite brutal in the playoffs.
Any thoughts on the systems play and the extent to which Kane and Draisaitl may have been party to Nurse’s struggles in terms of zone time?
A lot of a D’s issues – if they are not Pronger or Hedman – are decisions they make because of the partner. If the partner is weak at the line, not great at retrievals or exits, plays a bit slow, it can lead to a player like Nurse doing things to cover that and creating other problems
He needs to have trust and focus on a straight ahead game. Also to have the correct support from the centres, which over the years comes and goes. Having to make long passes because the forwards are too far up, or not in a good position to take a clean pass is going to cause problems for most D
As was mentioned here during playoffs, flying the zone is a tactic now. But you still need to do it right and with timing
It seems to me we haven’t paid enough attention to Paul Fischer as a potentially good prospect.
He played 22 games with the USNDT and went 2-4-6. He was apparently injured which according to Bowman affected his draft position. This rings true as he was 68th on McKenzie’s list but was taken 138th by the Blues.
The scouting report at the Hockey Writers raved about his Defence and Skating, noting that he had offensive potential which if it was realized would rank him much higher. ( I know you have to take scouting reports with a shaker of salt, if you can find it.)
https://thehockeywriters.com/paul-fischer-2023-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/
He went to Notre Dame to play with the Fighting Irish and as a 18 year old freshman he was the 3rd highest scoring defenceman with 16 points in 34 games. Since we have limited information, his +/- was -3, which was within the great unwashed and didn’t standout positively or negatively. The two defenders that beat him in points finished the season in the AHL and were 22 and 23 years old. Both ended up with 20 points. One of the two was -4 and has signed an NHL contract with the Bruins.
In any event, if we had a prospect picked outside the first round, I think we would be raving about the positive arrows of an 18 year old freshman who showed such prowess.
Bowman spoke very highly of him at his presser – said he’s watched him play 100 games.
He’s young (19) and will likely be in college for 2-3 more years but he’s got a chance – a long-term project likely.
I wonder how he’d compare to Wanner.
Both seem to be on a similar development timeline.
I think Wanner would be a couple of years ahead. After college Fischer would likely sign and go to the AHL. Wanner should be in the NHL by then.
Wanner is bigger and reportedly meaner. I’m guessing there style is different but I’m no expert.
Yeah I was musing about stylistic comparisons. Could have probably been more clear.
I like that there’s some jam to Wanner’s game. If Fischer lacks that attribute, I just hope his skating, hands, and IQ are top tier.
I would suggest that jam is a primary attribute of Wanner’s game.
That boy is is already a man – wait until he becomes an actual man!
Surely is. Big part of what makes him so intriguing as a prospect.
What about Fischer though?
He sounds like a very good prospect, I particularly like his skating and that he isn’t small. I don’t worry about having too much offense because that will mean they can’t keep him. They need there Huddys and Gators that stick around
Demko reportedly not ready for Training Camp according to Vancouver Sun. Surgery during the summer is speculated but for what the story doesn’t say.
Ya, this news started coming yesterday – weird that the “NHL News Breaker” did not post it.
Injuries have become more than a thing with Demko….
Yup. If it was the knees again . . . not so good.
Apparently needed another procedure in the early summer and is now rehabbing.
While the Canucks are confident that Silovs can hold the fort, he doesn’t have a proven record in a starters role so they are exploring backup options.
Kevin Lankinen is still available…11W 6L .908 last season with Nashville or perhaps Martin Jones.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canucks-lankinen-demko-injury#google_vignette
Source of mine is saying that Barrie is going to sign a PTO w/Edmonton.
It’s not out there yet, but says it’s coming. Will see how good the source is for this (he’s usually got most of the NSH stuff).
Someone mentioned Travis Dermott too. I believe both could be coming to camp on PTO’s.
Dermot actually plays both sides. Might be an option for the 7th D. They both might fit in well as depth defensemen .
It will be ironic if Travis Dermott ends up being Nurse’s partner playing the right hand side as a left shot.
Dermott could be the seventh D man they’re looking for. Might even be able to play with Nurse on RD in a pinch and so could Barrie.
I’ve heard the same thing, was a few weeks ago over a pint looking out across the pacific. Source is usually never far off when it comes to island connections.
Another big question is what we get from our man Stu this coming year. Not a crafty vet but no longer a green rookie. I hope he worked on some of that lateral rush work and his short side positioning.
Season long stats can mask variation and its where Stu can round into form. Last year Stu posted a .906 and 2.62 GAA, in the regular season and .901 and 2.42 in the playoffs, which isn’t bad. A little shy but not bad.
But in nine calendar months of hockey he had four months of a <0.890 SV% and > 2.85 GAA., which is very below NHL level tendering. A month is a small sample so we have to be careful but aside from June and October, each of those months is 8 or more games so a relatively decent chunk of the season in each. What I’m concerned about here is consistency, of you’re that volatile month to month its tough to get into a rythyme and for the team to catch its breath. What do we make of this idea of consistency with other goalers? Lets use .900 as a line and lets pick starters so guys in the >55 games category, for last year and see.
Hellybuck had one
Demko had two
Swayman had one
Goalie Bob had none
Shesterkin had one
Binnington had one
Lindgren had three
Hill had four
Sorokin had one
Saros with one
Oettinger with three
Luukonen with two
Kochetkov with three but two by .001 and .002 respectively.
We have goalie wobble for the guys you’d expect, less than journeyman and less well known. Them Oettinger numbers are interesting. But as you’d expect, guys vying for Vezina or known as very solid NHL goalies are consistent. Not many consecutive blowouts. Not having that happen multiple times a year. Seems reasonable no?
Much like non-McD based scoring I’m waiting and hoping for consistency as the Big Theme from Stu this year. Limit consecutive blowouts so you don’t have to run a .945 for a month to make up for it.
This is the way and I believe to be a very reasonable expectation as he grows into his role.
It’s very hard to detect the effect that defensemen have on a team’s 5v5 GF%. One way is to compare the results with the defenseman on the ice vs the results with the defenseman off the ice. You would expect the results for a difference making defenseman to be noticeably better with him than when his teammates are playing without him. The problem is that very, very few defensemen have WOWY results that are different enough that they can be detected by simple statistical tests or regressions. You need multiple years of data to even spot these effects, for example with players like Lidstrom. (I can’t remember the other guys I found when I did this a few years ago.)
It’s much easier to statistically spot the effect of forwards: McDavid, Crosby, etc. There are way more forwards that win their minutes at a rate that’s noticeably better than the rest of their teammates. (Why this should be so is an interesting thought exercise.)
So, in general, I think that forwards have more of an effect on winning and losing than defensemen. The way to get better results from your defensemen is to get better forwards. Which the team has done this offseason.
Interesting. Forwards are much more often in the prime scoring areas so it makes sense. Finishing to me is really why they didn’t win the Cup last year. Leon being hurt took his finishing out by the end
But they missed so many good chances it made Bob look seem Tretiak. There was a lot of net open, they just couldn’t get it there for whatever reason. It makes sense what Jackson went after
I’ve come to think over the years that if your D are good at what the basics are – deny entries as much as possible, retrieve and move it up quickly and well, that makes the offense better for forwards, more opportunities and less getting tired chasing in the D zone
Also momentum, keeping the ice tilted to the other guy’s end. Big is nice, I like assertive players, but these other things have to come first. It seems with the changes on D they also see it this way, and want more of a puck moving D
How is that calculated, though?
If a defenseman makes an outlet to a forward who gains the zone, and the puck ends up on the stick of a defenseman before two more forwards and ends up as a goal, is that saying the defense doesn’t drive offence? Or a cycle back to the blue line goes to two forwards before the back of the net, are we discounting the defenseman’s puck distribution acumen?
Put another way, does this heuristic account for proverbial third assists?
“How is that calculated, though?”
Two ways:
1) Difference of proportions test using GF% with player on and off the ice
2) Logistic regression model with goals as the response variable and players as binary predictors (1 – on ice, 0 – otherwise). The LR model, during fitting, calculates coefficients for each player included in the model and reports whether those coefficients are statistically different from 0 (ie, the default hypothesis that the player has no effect on GF%).
Forwards stand out because they can score. Forwards differ more in their ability to produce offense than to play defense. The variance for forward GF60 is higher than the variance for GA60. The ability to produce offense seems to be an individual trait as well. (Whereas defense seems to be a team trait.) Some forwards (Draisaitl) can reliably produce above average offense. Most (McLeod) can’t. Defensemen usually play with a mix of forwards on their team, so things basically wash out. They’re less responsible for producing offense; they end up taking on the average offense producing ability of their team.
Interesting, thanks for taking the time to give me the run down on the calculations.
I still have an aversion to the claim that defensemen don’t drive offence. It doesn’t jive with the eye test. Maybe most don’t, but some definitely do.
Apologies if this has been discussed but what is the situation with Niemelainen? I mean I k ow he is UFA but is there any interest in him signing here again?
Here’s a description of Niemelainen.
A complete all-around defenseman that makes the game look easy. Natural size & strength compliment his smooth stride. Very mobile skater who moves up the ice quickly, with acute recognition of puck and body position. His maturity and poise is actualized in his high percentage decision making, with and without the puck, as well as his proactive stick and body play. Very stable defensively and always takes his lane but is quick to rush the puck up ice as he recognizes and accounts for how much time his team is spending in their own zone. All in all, a quick-thinking defenseman that, honestly lacking nothing, has the potential to develop into a reliable two-way defenseman.
Wow!! Isn’t that all we ever wanted Darnell Nurse to be?
How did they ever let that guy get away?
Apparently he’s had concussion problems and I’m guessing he retires or heads back to Europe.
Thanks. Sounds like he would have been a consideration but injury/concussion has got the best of him. Too bad. But at least it isn’t a case of “they let him walk”, more of a “he won’t be able to do the job now” sort of thing.
There were account months ago the Oilers were not interested in bringing him back.
He’s spent more time out of the Condors’ lineup than in it recently and, when in, hasn’t been near his previous levels.
Matty with some updated on the depth right shot d-men and their end of season injuries:
1) we know Emberson miss the last few months of the year with a skate laceration – it was on his foot and required surgery. He’s 100% good to go, training hard and will be in town in a few weeks.
2) Stecher, on the other hand, just started skating but will be ready for cam.
I had wondered allowed about Stecher’s recovery. Great he’ll be ready for camp but I wonder how much training he was able to do during the off-season?
My guess is he could train just not wear skates until his skin healed up enough
Evander Kane also had a skate laceration. His new 100% reminds me of Ryan Whitney’s new 100%. That’s not good.
I hope it’s not the same with Emberson. Is this why Grier was so willing to part with him?
I would presume that physicals and stuff would/could be done as part of the deal, however, given its summer, players are not necessarily available, etc., maybe not.
Kane’s was particularly gruesome though – with arteries and tendons slices, from accounts.
I’m presuming Emberson’s wasn’t quite that bad but that’s just a presumption.
This post today is good because we’re looking at Darnell.
One thing I think is the discrepancy in play for Darnell between the regular season and playoffs.
In the Winnipeg series, Maurice quickly learned that Darnell almost entirely relied on Bear for the outlet passing and adjusted his forecheck to cheat to Bear. Bear didn’t have the boots to create enough time for himself. The series winner was an errant breakout pass by Bear under pressure that was picked off by an aggressive forecheck.
In the Vegas series, Cassidy found away to exploit our man-on-man d system and Nurses proclivity to chase the puck carrier everywhere.
Last year, I think it was the Vancouver series where they realized Nurse stands with his skate blades pointing to the goal.
This is an important point for those of you who did not play hockey growing up. I played d growing up. One of the first things I was taught over thirty years ago was to not stand in front of the net with your blades angled to deflect pucks in.Teams were shooting pucks at his skates all throughout the playoffs.
Hopefully he works on his skate blade positioning.
Knoblauch had to try Kulak then Broberg with Nurse to help counter the aggressive forecheck and help with puck retrievals and outlets.
Prior to that, Nurse was relying on Ceci for puck retrievals.
Over the past three seasons.(playoffs)
McDavid plus Nurse: 56.8% GF. 218 min
McDavid alone: 66.7% GF. 701 min
Nurse alone: 39% GF. 625 min.
Excluding last year.
McDavid plus Nurse: 58.6%GF. 167 min
McDavud alone: 63.2GF. 317 min
Nurse alone: 45.5% GF. 280min.
Nurse w/ Leon w/o McD: 10 GF – 12 GA (45%) 214 minutes.
Nurse w/o Leon or McD: 15 GF – 27 GA (35.71%) 410 minutes.
Last three seasons in the playoffs.
Nurse w/ McD and Drai: 13 GF – 5 GA (72%) 100:01 min.
Nurse w/ McD w/o Drai: 8 GF – 11 GA (42.11%) 118:42 min.
Last three playoffs.
I am not going to defend Nurse’s contract but he has been thrown to the wolves with poor help for the past three years.
It would sound like Nurse relies heavily on his partner to make up for his inefficiencies, if Ryan is correct with his observations.
I think for Nurse finding the right partner would allow him to focus in his game. Or a helpful enough partner. Like executing hockey 101 things. I’m sure the coaches are telling all of them about such things as they come up, how couldn’t they? Also screening the goalie
I think when there is too much noise he doesn’t take it all in well. I see him as a physically gifted instinctive player. When he gets into trouble is when he tries to do too much – process too much. At his best he is a physical player getting to the puck quickly and at times skating it out
With Bouchard he would be able to simplify his game and focus on being physical, getting to pucks quickly and helping his goaltender. Like any defense first defenseman and pick his spots offensively wisely. LOL just give the puck to Bouch in open space.
For sure. They would have lapses especially at first, but I also think that playing with Bouch would help Nurse’s timing with his own passing. Playing with better players helps anyone play better. I think it would be far better than it was last time because Bouch is established
Might also help Bouch get even more agro in his game which we are starting to see, as Nurse is more aggressive than Ekholm and will back Bouch up (Not that Ek wouldn’t, he just doesn’t fight much)
Ekholm doesn’t need help with anything so can help others get better, as with Bouch
I think we’ve already got it all figured out.
Your assessment of the Winnipeg series is off. Nurse spent close to 75% of his 5 on 5 time with Barrie. That pairing did very well. Nurse and Bear spent 30 minutes with Bear in that series and they gave up one goal, and it wasn’t the Bear big oops one either.
Bear played the other half of his time with Koekkoek, who was out there with Bear for the tying fateful tying goal against. Bear made 2 mistakes on that goal: The outlet pass and then panicking and covering the wrong guy after his first mistake.
Maurice going after Bear had nothing to do with Nurse.
It was a wild series.
I did watch all 4 games a single time. That’s fair. The numbers are skewed, in part, because of Bear getting benched and the triple OT in game 4.
Game 1 – Tippett went with Nurse and Barrie, but the Oilers lost 4-1.
Game 2 – Tippett went with Nurse and Bear. The Oilers lost 1-0.
Game 3. Tippett went with Nurse and Bear. The Oilers lost 5-4 in overtime.
Game 4. Tippett benched Kulikov and inserted Russell. Bear mostly played with Koekkoek. Both got benched. Nurse played with Barrie mostly, but he had some shifts earlier in the game with Bear..
Game 4 went to triple overtime with Bear benched for much of it until the end.
You’re correct, it doesn’t appear that he was on the ice with Nurse for the last goal.
Per Naturalstattrick, game 3 was the only game Nurse played any meaningful time with Bear at 5 on 5, 23 minutes including overtime. Bear Nurse at 5 on 5 were at around 2 minutes in each of games 1, 2 and 4. Game 3 was also the only so so game statswise Nurse played and he was still 50% goal share and expected goal share in that game. From a defense standpoint point the big weakness that series was Kulikov paired with Larsson. Too bad Russell was hurt to start that series.
yes. thumbs up
@rwesthead
Hearing CCM’s private equity owner is close to finalizing the sale of the hockey equipment company.
I’m told by people involved in the sale process the price will eclipse $570M, and be more than eight times EBITDA.
Birch Hill Equity Partners paid $110M seven years ago to buy CCM from Adidas. Since then, CCM, one of hockey’s biggest equipment companies, has more than doubled revenue and boosted profits.
Bankers say they expect owners of Bauer Hockey and True Hockey to also explore sales in coming months.
Industry source tells me the price of skates and hockey equipment may increase significantly under new owner(s).
McDavid has single-handedly saved that brand – hope he has some equity.
There’s not much room to increase gear and stick costs without losing market share – so much competition now and the tech is equivalent between companies.
No way you split up Bouchard-Ekholm and the McDavid trio. Have Nurse on the 2nd 5 man unit with a stay at home like Emberson and let Nurse run free his greatest attribute is skating. This will be the 1st time Leon will be running such a talented 2nd line.,These 2 five man units will wear the opposition down so my favourite unassuming 3rd line Centre in 20 years can feast over a 82 game schedule. We have the best forward group since the mid eighties no more 2-1 low event games this group scores 45-50 more goals than last year.
Good point. ‘without McDavid’ isn’t what it used to be.
I can’t recall what player are game where the Panther player skated through Nurse at the blue line like a pylon. The Panther didn’t score and I think we had a big lead but ooh my Nurse I I instantly felt a cold shiver go through my body.
Happens to injured players….
The more I think about it the more it seems like players on-ice numbers are largely the result of a coach’s deployment of players. Are on-ice numbers, for example, xGF, really useful metrics for evaluating individual player performance? Even Corsi or fenwick numbers.
Yes this is going to have an impact on a players numbers. There will be issues with every statistic the deeper you get into it. The most basic flawed statistic is +/-.
Avoiding the use of small sample sizes and being able to use WOWY’S also help dial it in. This is currently the best advanced stats we have. At one point it was just points and +/-.
Once digging into the advanced stats you can usually tell who is the higher calibre player. The cream rises to the top in most cases.
Dumb question but how do I look up a players most common linemates?
Dobber frozen tools has a thing
Natural Stat Trick
Under the Players Tap, click “Individual”
Find player and click on him.
Change Player Summary to “Teammates”
Boom!
You’ll need to sort by playoffs vs. regular season and you can do one season or rolling 2 or 3 seasons.
At this point, someone who’s a better defenseman than he is would be a safe bet.
We were talking about his poor on one ice save percentage (playoffs) yesterday.
JP is a believer in positive regression.
I’m a believer in Nurse needing to watch some tape to improve his positioning so that he’s not screening the goalie and tipping pucks into the net.
Does Fenwick positively regress too?
When in one playoff season a 29 year old player posts the worst FF%, GF%, on ice SV% and PDO of his entire career (regular season or playoffs), then I will wager yes to all of them positively regressing. But that’s just me.
To me, when folks here use the term, “positive regression,” it implies that the player just went through a stretch of bad luck or variance that’s likely to resolve.
While bad luck or variance might have impacted his on ice results, there’s no question that Nurse actually played very poorly.
Poor play itself doesn’t positively regress. Sometimes it’s due to injury or decline or perhaps a psychological funk like losing confidence.
You and I are still waiting for Campbell’s positive regression. If it happens, it will be as a Red Wing unfortunately.
In the 2024 playoffs, Nurse had the worst on ice numbers and ‘puck luck’ of his entire career.
Whether due to poor play, due to bad luck, or a combination of both (which I’ve stated I think is the case), a track record of better play/luck/results would be a strong indicator that the issues are likely to resolve.
Nurse 2024 Playoffs:
44%FF 36%GF 42%xGF .878SV%
Nurse last 3 regular seasons:
52%FF 51%GF 53%xGF .916SV%
Nurse previous 3 playoff seasons:
50%FF 53%GF 53%xGF .911SV%
I don’t see any reasonable way to argue that Nurse isn’t highly likely to ‘positively regress’ this coming season, and through the 2025 playoffs.
How do you tell the difference between when a player’s fallen off the cliff or when they’re going to positively regress?
Let’s say PK Subban. I’m honestly not sure exactly when he fell of the cliff, but he was cooked for sure by the time he arrived in New Jersey.
His last playoffs. 113 min which is a small sample from Nashville.
FF% 60.
GF% 36.
xGF% 61
On ice SV% 0.865, PDO .911
Those numbers are literally screaming Positive Regression is around the corner. (but it wasn’t)
I’m just trying to figure out how you can look at numbers and tell the difference with such conviction between “cooked” and “positive regression” is coming.
Right, you think Nurse may have fallen off the cliff when he turned 29.
Sure, it’s possible, though I don’t think likely.
And how do you tell? I’m not sure you can.
I certainly wouldn’t assume ‘cooked’ over ‘likely positive regression’ for a player who just turned 29 though.
I am surprised that Stecher isn’t getting more love around here…last season he played 16 minutes a night ES and was +4, the team without him was -16 ES. He had a 60% defensive zone start, and was 48% HDC against elites in 27% of his ice time. These are above average second pairing numbers, and those fancies are quite a bit better than Sean Durzi’s. He also played almost 3 minutes a night short handed. He is fast and a good puck mover. He had similar numbers the year before in Arizona and in a short time in LA. He also scored twice in the 2022 series against the Oilers in the playoffs and played well away from the puck. He is the ideal partner for Nurse imo…not saying he’s the guy who will win us the Cup but he can get us to the trade deadline if he can stay healthy.
My theory is that Stecher doesn’t exist. Or maybe that his past doesn’t exist. He has a long history of being a competent 2nd pair d, but when we traded for him all of a sudden he was labeled and shelved as a 7D.
I don’t know how he will handle recovery from surgery, but I’m higher on Stecher than anyone on here other than you that I’ve seen.
Stecher had minor surgery. I believe it was a syst removed from his ankle. The syst no longer exists, but Troy Stecher certainly does. He’s a warrior.
are you his brother ? 🙂
Perhaps this is cap and LTIR structuring.
Kane continues to rehab, plays some games early in the season – Oilers accrue some cap space. Kane decides to have surgery mid-season with an end of April return date.
A Stan Bowman masterclass!
Stan Bowman is Tambo level. Nepo baby master class.
You should remain anonymous.
This post may be from a Russian (or Calgary… or Vancouver) troll farm…
Effing “nepo baby” is the most ridiculous term used in discussing professional sports.
The entire league is based on “nepotism hires”.
Effing Kris Knoblauch was a nepotism hire.
At least I know that you are unable to discuss Oilers moves based on merit given your emotion towards the GM.
Wrong, nothing emotional about it. If his last name wasn’t Bowman, by track record he wouldn’t be a gm. I’ve stated this before the hiring. Just because he’s an Oiler now, unlike some lemmings, it doesn’t change my opinion. But, carry on, as you always do.
Using the term “nepo baby” as part of you 8 word non-substantive passive aggressive post shows otherwise.
Not that should even bother but:
1) yes, Bowman inherited a contending team – he was also part of management, in various roles for the decade prior including upper management that helped build that team.
2) He inherited the team in 2010 – well, he also retooled the team materially to win the cup in 2013 and again in 2015 – 3 and 5 years after he inherited the team. He also had the team in 1st place in the West in 2017, 7 years after inheriting the team.
His track record would 100% get him another GM job in this league.
100%nepotism hire his whole career. He moved into the nicest house on the street and traded down for a paper clip.
Good job with responding to substance with no-substance.
Not everyone has the time you do.
No no no. you must not insinuate that bowman could do anything competent.
anything bad is his fault.
anything good is jacksons doing.
Yup. I suggested this last week when the offer sheet was being discussed other than that in that scenario Kane would have had to go on LTIR to start the season.
If Kane is amenable all the team has to do is say that Kane prefers to try rehab for now and line up the surgery date so that the recovery date aligns with the end of the season.
It would help all of us in trying to figure out what the options are if we knew precisely what the injury concerns are but to date I haven’t heard anything but rumours.
the other side of this is kane can focus on growing his off ice brands dovetail wine and defy clothing for several months whilst rehabbing from the surgery.
That may be how the team wants to handle it. They don’t want him on LTIR. That’s fine with Kane, he likes to be a man of mystery.
Truth be told, its August 22 and still summer – it would not be normal to receive specific injury updates on players unless its the Tory Krug type “out for the season” or that something major has happened.
We’ll find out when camp breaks and the coaching staff and players start speaking officially to the media.
Yes. I think it was the ‘sports hernia’ morphing into the ‘hip issue’ that has clouded the situation.
I was thinking about this the other day. If the Oilers accrued cap space until the deadline and then put Kane on LTIR for the remainder of the regular season, how much deadline cap space would they have? $8-10M?
I don’t know much about how to pair D-men.
But I have to ask why no-one is suggesting that Darnell Nurse and his roving ways should be based on the right side. He’s over there half the time anyways.
Anybody want to try Kulak Nurse? Ek Nurse?
Maybe because Darnell needs to get away from his roving ways to be successful at the NHL level. IMO they would like him to be an all-around defenseman on his natural side.
I wanted to see Nurse-Ekholm given a shot, but that was back when I thought Broberg and Ceci would be on the team.
e: with Nurse on the right, to be clear
The Oilers only have 3 left d-man that are NHL players – the drop off to 4LD, Gleason, is material.
The Oiler have an issue with no locked and established 2RD but they have 5 players that are considered NHL right shot d-men.
I don’t see a left show guy moving over to the right side and, if there was one moving over, Ekholm would be the last choice, in my opinon.
Our defence has holes, but it’s not the end of the world. This is a very good team. Take a look at Florida’s dman depth chart. It’s not exactly stellar.
How much of that was Goalie Bob?
Goalie Bob really wasn’t all that good against Edmonton. Inconsistent at best, got lucky in game seven.
The first 3 games he was phenomenal. Have to give credit where it’s due. The next 3 games not so much. 7th he was good.
Bobrovsky had a .906 save percentage in the playoffs. The Panthers were third lowest in shots against per game at 25.3 which was right behind the Oilers at 25.1 so I would assume we can say that defence played very well.
Their forwards were excellent – Florida forechecked the Oilers relentlessly in their wins; the Oilers couldn’t muster up a second line that could score. Florida’s defence bent but did not break … the refs helped by swallowing their whistles in game 7. And Bobrovsky stole game 1.
All very good points.
Relentless forecheck and backchecking makes the Dmen’s jobs much easier. The Oilers have not done the backchecking part consistent enough.
I remain convinced that had Drai been remotely close to being healthy the Oilers are Stanley Cup champs!
That RHD depth chart is really really bad. Not sure what we do to fix that but need someone to carry Nurse
It might be Bouchard’s job to carry Nurse and Ekholm’s job to mentor Emberson. But that might only make sense to me.
It’s not the worst idea. Realistically this team is one RHD away from a better D than we had last year behind a better forward group and the same goaltending.
which part of Stecher’s advanced stats in Arizona last year suggest to you he won’t be a good partner for Nurse?
Stecher might possibly be a good partner for Nurse. But not as a top pair, such as a
Nurse-Bouchard pair. Ekholm & Stecher might be a consideration. However, again IMO
Ekholm mentoring Emberson is their best option moving forward.
Kulak can carry a solid 3rd pair.
but Nurse/Stecher wouldn’t be the top pair.
Whoever is with Bouchard is forms the top pair.
I’m assuming Nurse & Bouchard will be the top pair with Ekholm & Emberson the second. Does that make sense?
If Nurse and Bouchard are together, yup, they will be the “1st pair”.
Whoever plays with Bouchard will be the first pair, even if its Kulak (that seems unlikely though but I do have time for Nurse, Bouchard and Ekholm each anchoring their own pair).
This is not known.
If it’s not broke don’t fix it, that’s how I view the Ekholm/Bouchard tandem. They provide such a significant swing in on ice advantage for the Oilers imo it’s blasphemy to break the tandem up.
Yes Nurse needs to get sorted, the Oilers needs a RD to pair with him as always but breaking up the best tandem in the league to solve the Nurse equation.. It’s absolutely insane.
At some point put together a package for Neal Pionk as cap space builds.
Ek/Bouchard
Nurse/Pionk
Kulak/Em
Barrie
Post deadline.
Pionk is his agents biggest name, so unless Pionk falls in love and takes a bit of a discount on his last time to cash in he probably moves on in the summer.
Maybe Emb shows well enough after a season of running alongside Kulak the Oilers feel comfortable promoting him to the 2nd pairing. Maybe they’re left searching for another solution but those would be next summers issues after hopefully a long successful cup run with a legitimate defender in Pionk providing what the template should be.
They certainly could use a defenseman like Pionk beside Nurse. Unfortunately, they can’t afford him. That’s where Emberson comes in. They have their fingers crossed on him.
They can afford him when it comes to the deadline.
If the Jets were to trade Pionk at the deadline, what Oiler assets would they want?
Given the Oilers have no first round pick, the ask would likely start with the top prospect plus.
They don’t have their 2025 1st, but they do have a 2nd and 3rd. They do have the 26 and 27 1sts.
Akey, Stetcher, 2026 1st, 2025 Blues 3rd.
Lots of ways for it to play out, yet we know what your opinion on everything is. Yawn.
They won’t need to. LOL they will be fine with.
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Emberson
Kulak-Barrie PTO
Dermott PTO-Stecher
Gleason-Brown
Dineen-Carrick
Hoefenmayer-Kemp, Maximus Wanner & Beau Akey.
They have all those young RHD to work into the line up with Mattias Ekholm. Not a bad gig for Mattias.
Agree they could do it, but why the hell would they pay that much for Neal Pionk?
The oldest team in the league is going to have player/players on the LTIR come deadline.
That’s why they need depth at a price they can afford. Much like every other team in the NHL.
I’d say every coach before KK had that same opinion when it came to Mcdavid and Leon on the same line.
Good thing the season is 82 games and you can try out different ideas,
Is there any realistic way to pry Doughty from LA, wouldn’t imagine it cost too much, of course LA will have to eat some salary?
That would be ideal 2 RHD we need.
A doughty type RHD would be excellent.
I’d like to see Nurse -Bouchard as our “top pairing” while Ekholm – Emerson try to form a competent 2nd pairing. Ekholm and Bouchard are solid puck moving guys, good at preventing zone entries with control, which I think would complement Nurse’s and Emberson’s style.
Lowetide’s look at Bouchard’s results with and without McDavid also gives me hope that Nurse – Bouchard could help the Drai line dominate, while McDavid can help cover for whatever defensive woes Ekholm’s pairing may encounter.
You could argue that good teams will target whichever defenseman is weak on preventing zone entries, and that is almost certainly true, but I’d rather have one weak spot on two pairings than one whole pairing that can be isolated like Nurse – Ceci was (imo). Based on play style, I’m pretty sure this is what would happen if we rolled out Ek – Bouch and Nurse – Emberson.
I guess this is a post about Stetcher though… the short answer is no, I don’t think he can hack 2RD. To be honest I see him as more of a capable 4RD who is excellent injury coverage than someone who can move up and down the lineup. I know Kulak was uncomfortable on the right side, but I’d honestly rather see him moved up than Stetcher if it comes to that, though I know that will never happen.
The tricky bit now with Bro gone, is if Kulak goes to his offside (that he does not enjoy playing) at 2RD, who plays 3LD??
I think ~8-10 game windows of trying different RS D with Nurse and Ekholm to see what works as a serviceable “Top 2 pairings” is warranted.
Keep Kulak in his lane at 3LD and he’s solid.
Stretch him and you’ll see the cracks.
I think no matter who Bouchard plays with, its the first pairing – he led the team in 5 on 5 ice per game by close to two minutes (apx: 1:40 I believe).
Bouch elite and bordering on a top 5 2-way NHL d-man.
Bowman has until the trade deadline to find 2RD. In the meantime and regardless of math I look forward to seeing all the different permutations in action: Ekholm Bouchard; Nurse Bouchard; Ekholm Emberson; Nurse Emberson; Ekholm Stetcher; Nurse Stetcher; Ekholm Wanner etc.
Eagerly awaiting what the numbers will look like now that we have two legitimate first lines for our top-4 to play with. We’ve had Draisaitl propping up the 2-line and he’s a king for sure, but he’s been playing with 6s and 7s while McDavid has had the face cards. Adding Skinner and Arvidsson will surely help improve the counting numbers for their most likely D-pairing (Nurse-X).
I’m also onboard with Nurse-X deployed with Connor, leaving Ek-Bouchard to make that second line an absolute house to play against.
If Nurse-X can’t get it out of the zone, Connor and Zach will be expending a lot of time/energy trying to bail water.
I’m basing my blue-sky situation on Connor swinging down incredibly low (as a C should), presenting a stick on the ice a-la Red Green, and Nurse being able to make a 2-foot touch pass.
There are still concerns with this plan.
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Elliotte Friedman:
Working on more, but hearing Rutger McGroarty is being traded from Winnipeg to Pittsburgh
https://x.com/friedgehnic/status/1826651306356080895?s=61
That’s a great name. If he doesn’t hit like a tank I will be disappointed. Otherwise, I’d never heard of him before
Highly regarded prospect drafted 14th overall in the 2022 draft.
52 points in 36 games at NCAA Michigan last season.
Brayden Yager is going to the Jets.
One has a name that conjours images of hitting players like a tank, the other to me conjours images of a man that can slam down a pint.
14th overall picks from 2020, 2022, 2023 all moved in the same week.
Isaak Rosen and Sebastian Cossa shaking in their boots.
With the Arizona forfeited pick it could be either.
I love that many people were crucifying the Oilers for not giving Broberg more opportunity because he was blocked by veterans, but the response now is give Stecher the 2nd pair RHD because he is veteran. We can’t have it both ways. I think we all feel immense discomfort having 2 spots to be filled by Emberson and Stecher
If we’re asking who is the best fit with Nurse, neither of these 2 are ideal, because neither will be able to cover Nurse’s weaknesses in the D zone (defending entries, exiting)
How can the Edmonton Oilers fix the glaring hole on their second defensive pairing? – OilersNation
We all know in an ideal world, Emberson/Stecher would be fighting for 3rd pair RHD, and we’d have an experienced #2 RHD. I am also not sold that Broberg or Kulak would have been ideal.
The big question will be can the Oilers survive long enough, with enough accrued cap space, to make a play for a real #2 RHD? In the interim, they are going to have Emberson or Stecher playing beyond their depth with Nurse, all having a heck of a time getting it out of their zone OR you break up the best top pairing in the NHL last season to cover for deficiencies. OR you have a guy in the minors take a giant, massive leap forward into that role, which is exactly what people wanted to do with Broberg when he never proved that he could handle it
Agreed. Stretcher and/or Emberson at 2RHD scares me.
That’s the spirit, and if they do prove worthy, you’ll be over the top.
Especially when 2LHD makes them look bad!
Emberson played 2 pair minutes in SJ (4th in TOI) and did well compared to the others. It’s just he hasn’t played much in the NHL. But he played college and two years in the A and he’s 24, so he has experience against men and isn’t a kid. I’m am concerned about injury after reading SID’s piece
This is what happens with poorly done team unfriendly contracts. Nurse’s precludes them from having a better situation like Pesce. Really what they need to do is move a 5M forward, but can’t easily. It gets trickier from here unless they get lucky and Nurse wants to move
Survive long enough?
The 19-20 team was close to winning the Pacific in the Covid year with Bear playing 1RD. That team lacked this team’s firepower up front. It lacked Bouchard and Ekholm. It lacked KK and a coaching staff which navigated a series of puzzles on the way from 31st overall to Game 7 of the SC Finals. Much too much is being made of how precise the fit has to be for 2RD. Try stuff.
I too want them to try stuff. Got the whole season. Let’s see what’s what.
I think the Oilers will be fine during the regular season. The concern and worry for me is about the playoffs.
Even the dreaded Nurse -Ceci pairing was fine during the regular season.
Didn’t Joel Persson play 2RD for a stretch in 2019?
The only thing is you really have to hope is that the Kraken don’t make the playoffs. There are not many other teams with decent right-handed defensemen on expiring contracts.
To me the answer is who would play to Nurse strengths the best. I’m not sure who fits that bill if anyone we have but that seems like the solution.
It seems all Nurse’s partners are deficient, according to some.
Why does everyone assume that a slowing aging Ekholm will perform as well if he is moved away from Bouchard and McDavid? Bouchard may be helping Ekholm as much as Ekholm is helping Bouchard.
Remember Nashville felt that they could trade Ekholm because he was aging and slowing.
Maybe Ekholm is thriving because he has to defend so much less and has more space and time playing with Bouichard and McDavid, creating the illusion that it is still a 26-year old Ekholm.
Nurse can carried every sort of deficient partner (inexperience, slow, defensively suspect, small, etc) to acceptable regular season metrics, and the deficiency of the partner doesn’t get exposed till the higher level of competition in the playoffs in a matchup scenario. This season is here we all go all over again doing something similar, and expecting different results.
Kulak has failed every extended 2nd pairing test in his career. Perhaps people should just be satified that the Oilers have an elite #5D anchoring the 3rd pairing.
I think people assume Ekholm will thrive without Bouchard because he does.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480803&p2=8475218&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
250 minutes spread out over 1.5 seasons …two and a half minutes a game, most of it probably accumulated during line changes, and with Nurse when PP#2 is mopping up at the end of a PP, or at the end of a PK with Ceci or Vinny.
Yeah…that is a sample size to be trusted.
He showed you his reasoning. Where is yours? Or just cranky rhetoric? 😉
Ekholm wins his minutes with all combinations of with and without Bouchard and McDavid. Bouchard doesn’t win his minutes away from Ekholm, with or without McDavid.
Ekholm doesn’t just help Bouchard. Ekholm helps everyone. It’s easy to spot when you watch him play, whatever the sample size. Ekholm is different.
.
This is 100% factually incorrect.
Bouchard was 60% across the board (although 50% goals) away from BOTH McDavid and Ekholm last year – 153 minutes I believe it was.
Eye test too. I’ve yet to see him struggle anywhere.
No qualms with Ekholm’s performance without Bouchard. Breaking them up to allow Nurse-Bouchard another go would be interesting, but you are going to accept that you are going from 1 supernova pairing to 2 pairings (the 2nd being Ekholm-Emberson/Stecher) that may be treading water
Do you honestly think Ekholm was traded because he was aging and slowing?
It was the previous GM who traded him for a boatload trying to set up the future GM for a rebuild or retooling. They weren’t in a win now situation so they took a leap and traded a great defenceman for futures.
As for your sample size comment, you can only use the information you have, there is no reason to assume the opposite. Ekholm has not struggled in really any situation since arriving in Edmonton. I would personally assume Ekholm is a top pairing play driving defenceman until proven otherwise.
This isn’t a situation of Cheechoo coming out of no where and paired with Thornton to score 56 goals. This is a player who has had success before Bouchard, success with Bouchard as basically a rookie, success with Bouchard as he has grown and would probably have success (may not be at the same level) without Bouchard.
The new guy in Nashville just signed a whole bunch of old men. Ekholm would fit in nicely. With the new guy’s strategy, trading Ekholm turned out to be a mistake.
Poile was assuming a rebuild. Trotz went straight into Holland mode and signing a whole bunch of guys past their best before date. Askarov is asking for a trade.
Nurse also gets exposed in the playoffs. Is that because of his partner? If Nurse is so good, shouldn’t he carry his supposed deficient partners to acceptable playoff metrics as well? It appears Nurse needs a partner to help Nurse during the playoffs. That’s the one constant in this situation. Oilers only really have a top pairing Ekholm & Bouchard.
Why risk putting Bouchard with Nurse? Is he better than an aging Ekholm? He should be.
But is he?
Great post.
$9.25M….
Thanks. But I’m beginning to think that they will need to play Bouchard with Nurse.
Maybe Bouch can make Nurse look more like that $9.25M defenseman. It might be their best option. I only hope it works.
I don’t get the logic in breaking up Bouchard-Ekholm. It’s one of the best pairings in the league. Don’t screw it up. This is a good hockey team. A Nurse-X pairing isn’t ideal, but this team will win despite the shortcomings on the second pair. They have 60 games to figure it out, and make a deadline trade if it’s not working.
Who knows it may be beneficial to play Ekholm with Emberson. For obvious reasons.
To me it’s all eggs one basket. Connor doesn’t need much help to crush. They could play Ek Bouch with Leon, but then Nurse is playing the toughest comp more with someone over their heads
I bet they try a lot of things to see how it fits together now
If you want to see Nurse/the second and third line numbers improve, do not play Bouch with McD.
It is an interesting problem no other team has in that we have a player who’s so good he makes everyone look bad.
The Mcdavid minutes are the hardest minutes the other team plays nearly every night, and theyre not great at it. The teams that are okay win Stanley.
Coach K’s decisions aren’t how to mitigate an opponents best, it is how to best maximize the time on ice where you have an absolute advantage. 20 minutes per game you should be the best team by a wide margin.
Now that you have the sample size of what works, like Leon line 1, Ek Bouch, the rest of the season should be finding other mixes that work. Injury can derail that plan ala last year, but i think the total road would have been easier if there was a proven alternative to Nurse-Ceci; it just wasnt working for that stretch.
Teams can only beat us with depth, and the natural structure of salaries means you need to plan around not losing to another teams 2nd and 3rd best. Toronto hasn’t figured it out, we were close.
The idea behind the nuclear weapon is you can sleep at night knowing you have the bigger stick, not that you use it.
LT, I don’t think you have the correct on ice numbers for Nurse-Bouchard (57% shots, 46% goals).
I do agree that Bouchard is a more mature player now and that could (positively) impact the results.
FIxed it and I thank you. Even more of an endorsement of trying this pairing with the correct numbers in my opinion.
Yes, the Nurse-Bouchard fancy numbers are just as strong as those for Ekholm-Bouchard.
If those can translate into real goal shares going forward it definitely opens up more options for the team.
One of the more instructive lessons about how dman pairs work was the one I learned watching the early games when Pronger and Marc Andre Bergeron were paired together.
I had season tickets so I could watch the game rather than the puck and it was fascinating how few games it took Pronger to figure out what his far less talented and erratic partner was up to on the ice.
What first attracted my attention were Pronger’s errant passes to nobody under no pressure whatsoever. That was not what I expected from somebody with his reputation.
It was, of course, Bergeron who was not where he was supposed to be according to the school of how to play defence that Pronger had mastered.
So I started watching Pronger watching Bergeron on the ice while the play headed up ice. It only took him a few games to figure out how Bergeron thought the game and adapted himself to how he played rather than trying to teach Bergeron to play the conventional way.
They were a funny combination. One of the best ever paired with a marginal 6-7D playing against other team’s best but Pronger made it work.
All of this rambling is to say that judging dmen individually tells us a certain amount but the pairing is really the unit is what the coach is looking for and to me Ekholm is a guy who can make any partner look better. He is an ice coach for his partner.
I know nothing about Emberson but if the scouts and numbers guys did their job he is Ekholm’s next project. Bouchard has completed the course and graduated with flying colours. It is time for him to be the lead dog on his own pairing.
If Emberson is not the right guy for 2RD the Oilers will have to make a move at the TD but there is nobody else that has any chance of holding that position for a playoff run. Ekholm has until then to make Emberson a top four dman on a contending team.
To me there is no other plan currently available.
Great story. And yes, next to Ekholm may well be the best spot for Emberson.
I also agree Emberson is the internal candidate with by far the best chance of elevating to legitimate 2RD by playoff time.
That said, my assumption is that all involved with the team are fully expecting to add a Dman for that spot during the season (using the cap space they’ve afforded themselves).
If Emberson over-performs sufficiently, perhaps they don’t end up add anyone, but I suspect that’s a distant hope rather than an expectation.
Both of things could turn out to be true. 😎
Yup. It will be up to Nurse to adapt to playing with Bouchard.
Cool post. Let’s hope that’s Ek. Def ain’t Nurse.
I was going to make a post that those numbers were likely propped by McDavid minutes but thankfully I checked.
In the past three seasons, Nuse/Ceci WITHOUT McDavid were 52% goals share (51% expected goal share) with possession being in the 49% range – 1800 minutes.
That’s quite good without McDavid, no?
Not for a $9.25M defenseman it’s not. If he’s playing away from McDavid, he’s not playing the other team’s best of the best. Those numbers from a player gobbling up that percentage of the cap will keep this team from ever winning the Cup.
Puckiq.com numbers don’t jive with your narrative.
TOI v Elites
McDavid: 34.5%
Draisaitl: 32.4%
McLeod: 30.5%
It looks like there was plenty of Elite comp in the “without McDavid” minutes.
At some point you need to get over the salary. It isn’t changing and he isn’t going anywhere. Everyone and their dog knows he is overpaid.
Now join the conversation and be productive with it.
50% goal share is good, Nurses expected goal share came in at 55.5% (17th) for defencemen who played more than 750 minutes last season and was 50% goal share tied for 93rd so exactly where is he playing as a #3 defenceman. Obviously this doesn’t take into consideration level of competition or teammates but it gives a good look into that he is a valuable member of the team.
Multiple things to mention:
1) He isn’t going to be traded.
2) He has a NMC.
3) If he were to be traded you would be retaining at least 2 million or taking a large bad contract back, say at least 5 million.
4) You are not going to find a better defenceman with the 2.25 million that you saved if that was the circumstance.
I will not “get over” the contract. Value per Dollar spent is the entire equation in salary cap world. That’s it; that’s what matters. As long as he continues to underperform by such an alarming degree, the team is hindered. Once they have to pay Bouchard, they will be working with a lot more $1M D-men. If he can’t carry the second pairing with a cheap partner, they’re screwed.
I don’t think that is necessarily true.
There is all sorts of line matching going on – 1) getting McDavid away from the other team’s elites and 2) as much as Darnell struggled for 4-5 months this past season, he was the team’s #1 choice to play elites for many years, with or without McDavid.
It’s not ideal to me. I would prefer the second pair not lag the first so much. Nurse Ceci TOI 23/24 5v5 with the C’s
Drai 387
Mcleod 269
CMD 181
Ryan 129
Henrique 55
These aren’t bad centres
Anyone who isn’t McDavid isn’t McDavid. Part of the evaluation of Edmonton’s defensemen has to factor in time away. It’s the biggest skew job going.
Yes I agree playing with Connor is an unfair advantage. I was getting at that the those pairs not playing with Connor still should do somewhat better than they do
Other teams D don’t have Connor. Playing with Leon and McLeod who transported the puck so well, followed up by Connor isn’t a disadvantage they had to overcome or the like
Last season 5v5 for Nurse Ceci WOWY’s the worst possession numbers were either Ceci or the pair. Nurse was better without and closer to the group average. I’m hoping a new look helps things for Nurse, and Kulak as well, but of course it looks iffy
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2024-04-18&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8476879&p2=8477498&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
I’m sure you’re right, and Nurse will adapt to whoever he plays with. I do hope Nurse and Stetcher can get a chance to cook a little bit, though.
It feels to me like Nurse would be able to play more to his strengths with a partner who can make an outlet pass consistently, as he’s not very accurate at those.
I think he would also thrive with someone who can defend reasonably well, because otherwise he is prone to “over-defending” and gets himself out of position.
Stetcher would seem to fit those criteria.
I have no doubt they will exhaust all options with Nurse until they find a solution. They’re investing a ton for this player. But I think Nurse needs to adapt to be the player the team needs him to be, not the other way around.
Maybe the answer is, Nurse needs to be the second best d man on his pairing, to deliver anything better then 50 percent.
GF% 100 how can you argue with that!