I wrote this about Leon Draisaitl in May, and for me it’s his biggest positive. Some players shy from the fierce, some overcome natural instincts to enter the fray. Leon Draisaitl greets the filthy with a smile and an axe worthy of Paul Bunyan. He’s a fearsome NHL player. That’s before we talk about his all-world skill. Yesterday was a massive moment in Oilers history.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic wrote a brilliant item on Draisaitl and it is here.
A HISTORY LESSON
Who is your all-time Edmonton Oilers player? Most would say Wayne Gretzky, and that’s a wise choice. Gretzky played in 696 regular season games for the team. Leon Draisaitl has played in 719. His new contract, plus the year that remains in his last one, makes it possible for Draisaitl to play another 719 games with the Oilers.
This is massive. The Oilers fortunes during the Daryl Katz era have been very poor (pre-Draisaitl/McDavid), improving (2015-2020) and then the spike to Stanley (2021+) all Oilers fans hope for in the future.
How many years left in the Oilers window to win? We can discuss it, but it’s sure as hell more than it was one day ago. The signing yesterday would appear to ensure Edmonton will successfully sign Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard in future days.
I think credit is due owner Daryl Katz, team captain Connor McDavid and CEO Jeff Jackson. I believe Draisaitl probably walked about $16 million or so over the life of the new contract, plus major opportunities to become a New York icon. He could have been the Marlboro man, he could have been the king of Manhattan (younger version, Henrik owns that town for the older set).
No one is guaranteed the Stanley Cup. This Oilers team has some significant issues, more than most clubs who are considered strong championship contenders. The thing is, Edmonton’s strengths are super nova, beyond the blue horizon.
Leon signed. That’s your headline for the 2025 offseason.
Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. One of my favourite elements of the show is having Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal as a weekly guest. McCurdy is the perfect voice to place the Draisaitl signing in historic context. We’ll listen to his wise words and then talk about the back end. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Projecting possible Edmonton Oilers waiver targets before 2024-25 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5739859/2024/09/04/edmonton-oilers-waiver-targets-2024/
`As someone who watched all the stars leave in the late 80’s and early 90s – this news is the best possible. It means McDavid is re-signing and we get two decades of watching these guys. Nothing else matters.
I blame Romulus Apotheosis for the Drai “overpay,” lol.
Don’t know if he still reads here but no one had the goods on Draisaitl before Rom did. Drai was to Rom what Pouliot was to LT. 😉 Hat tip to the man. He’s been right for a long time now and when we’re talking about things in the future that’s an impressive achievement.
This came out a few hours ago and I didn’t see it linked. Apologies if I missed it.
Scout’s Analysis: Where Ty Emberson fits on Edmonton’s defence
Say hello Charlie Huddy
Since he plays the right side and appears to be the quiet, solid defensive half of a pairing, I think Bukala has it right and we will see him principally with Nurse. I say this too in part because Nurse is going to play PK and Boosh won’t. Due to his age I can see Ekholm getting those minutes off too.
Probably makes Emberson closer to Dr. Gregg than Huddy.
But the question remains… can Stecher PK himself?
Will be interesting to see how the Oilers RD situation plays out.
I still expect we’ll see someone added by the trade deadline, but it would be really nice if the 2/3/4 RD can solidly hold the fort until then and cement themselves as useful pieces in the mean time. I’m pretty optimistic they can do that.
Not at all sure what will happen with the PK.
Hopefully they can cut back a little on Ekholm’s minutes, but I think that would be more PK2 instead of PK1 rather than actually off the PK.
While Emberson seems a PK fit, he only spent 1:06 per game on the PK in SJ. His numbers were excellent, but it was 33 minutes.
Stecher was a primary penalty killer in Arizona, and killed a bit way back in Vancouver too, but doesn’t have a huge history in the role.
Kulak has actually killed penalties even less than Stecher over his career.
Bouchard I wouldn’t write off of the PK quite as fast as you. He did PK for 1:40/game in 21-22 and did quite alright. It’s true his TOI elsewhere will probably prevent him doing much PK work though.
Last but maybe not least, Josh Brown. Like almost everyone, I don’t expect him to be a regular, but his penalty killing might actually help get/keep him in the lineup. His 5v5 minutes have been low, but he’s consistently been a top PK option, and his results (relative to team) have been quite solid. If you add ‘quality penalty killer’ to ‘big and physical’ it’s a lot easier to see him in the lineup regularly.
Anyway, we will see.
Man, that makes the PK picture even muddier than I thought.
Yeah, there will certainly be auditioning, and I’m not sure how the handicap the field.
Knoblauch/Coffey/Stuart have their work cut out for them.
Most have Brown penciled in at 7d, but he could play a lot more games than many think.
The Avalanche won the cup in 2022. MacDermid suited up for 56 regular season games. He was a regular until they acquired Josh Manson. I don’t think MacDermid suited up during the playoffs.
It’s easier to play a guy like Josh Brown when you have the forward depth that we do. Hopefully, if that’s the case, like Colorado, we get an upgrade so he doesn’t see ice during the playoffs.
MacDermid often played forward when Colorado needed a face punched.
Watching the new Drop episode on the draft that just Dropped. Can confirm Parkatti was in the room during scouting meetings and Pracey even asked him for analytics on specific players. Music!
So many interesting tidbits around the draft, definitely a must watch. One that stood out was on day 2 Sam O’Reilly was hanging around chatting with Pracey and some other mgmt, and was asked about Clattenburg just after he was picked. O’Reilly said they just played him in the OHL playoffs and thought he was Flint’s best player.
Look forward to watching – The Drop is unreal good.
The July 1st footage was also fantastic. Parketti definitely involved there too and Brad Holland, cleary still a strong voice on the mgmt team, spoke VERY passionately in favour of signing Skinner.
Tyson Barrie signed to a PTO in Calgary fuelling speculation Rasmus Andersson may get moved with Toronto as a possible destination.
Nic Robertson remains unsigned in Toronto and has demanded a trade.
Andersson might fetch Robertson, Liljegren and Jarnkrok to make the money work.
Funny how you have been posting for weeks that good teams lock up their young talent early and then post how one of your favorite teams has an RFA demanding a trade.
What in your opinion would of made the hometown discount crowd? giddy. Would it start with a 12 or less?
Oh, likely $12 million or so but that was never going to happen.
James Mirtle has a superb breakdown on the Athletic that shows clearly that 15% of the cap was the right number.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5743417/2024/09/04/leon-draisaitl-connor-mcdavid-oilers-contract-salary/?source=user_shared_articleLeon Draisaitl’s deal with Oilers raises big question: What is Connor McDavid worth?
Mirtle has McDavid coming in at $17 million so with Bouchard coming in likely at $10 million and Nurse at $9.25 million the Oilers would be spending over $50 million on four players with an Ekholm replacement urgently required.
With cap going up by leaps and bounds, a #1LD will likely be very costly so close to $60 million for 5 players.
Yikes.
If Leon doesn’t sign I don’t think either one of Connor or Bouchard signs as well. Our PP should be top 3 for the next 10 years which guarantees a top 8 or better league wide finish. I believe Leon and Connor will transition into G.M & Coach. The younger folks that bitch and wine about Coffey and the rest of the OBC will get it back when they age out and will hear the same OBC spiel about Connor-Leon-Hyman-Nurse. I think RNH will become the new Eddie Olczyk.
With the cap going up “leaps and bounds” the Oilers won’t be able to afford anyone.
Alright, I don’t like calling names but this really is a very stupid statement.
Pretty much an oxymoron no?
HH, you sometimes bring some decent content here and you definitely push engagement on the blog. But I gotta say these last couple months since the Oilers have proven to the world they’re legit contenders you’ve kind of been reeling with your rhetoric(and yes I noticed that you weren’t around much in June 😉)
At least when the Oilers stunk you had a leg to stand on. It’s just coming off as desperate now.
Kind of like when you watch someone doing something really embarrassing and you cringe because you’re embarrassed for them.
I know I’m leaving a trail of troll bread crumbs here so apologies to the group. And apologies to LT if this was over the line but every now and then I have to call out absolute nonsense like this.
No.
Leon, Connor, Bouchard and whoever is the next #1LD will soak up most of the cap increase.
Leon +5.5 million
Connor +4.5 million.
Bouchard +6 million
LD +3 million?
S. Skinner raise +2 million?
That’s 21 million in raises and doesn’t account for replacing other players on expiring contracts at higher rates under an increased cap environment.
Shockingly, it also doesn’t take in to account replacing players on expiring contracts at LOWER rates (i.e. Savoie for Skinner, O’Riley for Henrique potentially, etc., etc.).
None of those are projected to be impact NHL players.
Pronman has a new rating out today…check it out.
Remember when you didn’t project Draisaitl (Joe Colbourne) as an impact player?
Remember when you didn’t project Bouchard (Brogan Rafferty) as an impact player?
Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Pronman’s projections not mine.
Remember all of those times where you dismissed Pronman when his work didn’t align with your narratives?
Remember when you would post his work whenever it did fit one of your narratives?
If you tout them, they’re yours.
Pronman also projected Evan Bouchard, in his 4th tier, below:
Svechnikov
Zadina
Kotkaniemi
Wahlstrom
Boquist
Bokk
Merkley
Veleno
Kupari
Denisenko
Ylonen
Kravtsov
Iskhakov
Wow, a disingenuous response – how novel for you. Totally agree with Shane above.
I haven’t a clue who/what you really are – and also absolutely do not care one iota – but you do sound pathetic. Your schtick is old and worn out. I truly do not understand what in your psyche compels you to come on here repeatedly just to look and sound so lame and sad.
The reality is the Oilers are a pretty good team, they can play an exciting game, hopefully bring home the big prize soon and who knows maybe more than one. There is no such thing as a “perfect” team. That’s why games are played. There are other good teams and players and GMs and contracts and all that. So what. This is a community of Oilers fans and enthusiasts. We are not a collection of puppet masters controlling The Hockey. (Apologies to all the super smart analytic folks and those of you here with such a remarkable passion and enthusiasm for this sport and this team)
Next time you go to write your typical asinine petty whiny comment about this player or that prospect or contract or whatever, have a wee think about being less of a twat.
I suspect a lot of people here would be appreciative.
Replacing at higher cost is only a factor in free agency. If we get them in trade as we did with Ekholm, their salaries are not at immediate risk if they have any term remaining beyond the season of acquisition. Not a given it will entail that risk in an immediate way at all.
Savoie-Jarventie -O’Reilly-Podkolzin-Wanner-Emberson-Akey. I see a cheap future. I think we go 5 for 7 and hit for the cycle. What’s your prediction for these 7 assets?
Watch as the cap jump up like crazy and in a few years 2nd tier stars will be in the 12-15M range. Suddenly nobody will be talking about Draisaitl and McDavid’s contracts as being too much. Just like how 10M used to be only the elite of the elite.
The timing of Draisaitl and McDavid renewals might end up being perfect. Just as the cap is sharply increasing but before the player’s contracts catch up.
Inflation may be a bitch but it is doing wonders for the cap!
Yes. It’s not a contract that starts this year. It’s a contract that starts next year. The last couple years will be overpays but the mid portion will be pretty cheap
I can’t wait to see what Auston Matthews’ retirement contract will look like.
Draisaitl’s $14M will be 15.05% of the Cap next season (assuming it goes up $5M next offseason).
The 1st year of MacKinnon’s current contract was 15.09% of the Cap, and Matthews was 15.06%.
The $14M number looks large, but it’s not actually out of whack with already existing contracts, never mind ones that are coming in the near future with the rising cap.
Valid and good point.
MacKinnon was 2 years younger when that contract kicked in than Drai will be.
Including the 28 and 29 year old seasons and removing the 36 and 37 year old seasons is material I would say.
We’re currently watching the future top 3 for all-time games played for the Oilers in Nuge, Leon and Connor. That’s pretty cool for a fan base that has seen every superstar leave at some point.
I’ve spent my life as an Oilers fan watching stars leave town – if Leon raises Stanley here they might give him a statue beside Connor’s.
And while I worry about the top-heavy cap implications, this isn’t Matthews/ Marner /Huberdough money for guys who don’t elevate when it matters: 97 and 29 are worth the extra money because they elevate when the games matter extra.
It was a pleasure watching Sather masterly flip the Risto-Price etc into gold for most of the Eighties and then heartbreak seeing Anderson-Fuhr-Messier-Esa-Kurri-MacTavish-Buekeboom-Smith etc leave town. I have to say I loved the lunch pail gang in the nineties watching the dedication of grunts like Mike Grier popping his shoulder back in place on a line changes on more than 1 occasion. I believe Mikey did us a solid and will be rewarded somewhere down the line. It was a great day in Oilerville yesterday we will score 45-50 more goals and absolutely steamroll ourselves to a championship
I read from a San Jose reporter they thought Emberson was topping out at 3rd pair, so Ceci who they really needed would be an upgrade to them. We’ll see who’s right
reporter might be a big analytics guy, not
Why would they say otherwise. Coach K.K had him out East and he was a star in the A.H.L which is no small achievement. Sometimes draft pedigree means zilch especially for a stay at home 24-25 defender. Wouldn’t it be something if we end up winning in the short and long run because Broberg chased the dragon.
Rishaug said on TSN that Leon likely left a good chunk on the table. There were teams out there likely willing to go to $16M or even $17M per!
A big dominant C is the unicorn that every team wants and needs. Without one, you’re wandering in the desert.
While likely true, Rishaug (whom I quite like) is one of the primary water bearers for the organization, and commentary like this ought to be met with the highest level of skepticism.
If I’m the Flyers or Jackets or Capitals or Bruins, that’s a price I’m willing to pay. Once the Bergerons and Backstroms of this world age out, you’re hooped.
I don’t disagree, posted about his likely open market value price yesterday.
It’s just that when it comes time to soften a narrative to the fanbase in favour of the organization, Rishaug is one of the chief messengers. I’m just skeptical without actually knowing the details of how the negotiation proceeded.
If I had to guess, I’d think there’s going to be a price for a guy of Leon or Connor’s stature to join a team like SJS, ANA, CBJ, etc. Then there’s a much different (read: lower) AAV to go to a contender like EDM, TBY, FLA, BOS, etc. Simply put, the contenders have a better chance to win on an annual basis because they have so many good players already making high salaries. So everyone who joins has to take less than their open market value. We see this with the likes of this year’s UFA signings in EDM.
As we saw with the double offer sheet, it only takes 1 team to be in position to thread the needle, and poof … there goes your franchise centre.
The Leon contract needed to get done, and it did.
Yes he would have got more going to market likely. But really there aren’t good options there if winning is his main goal. He would have been traded to the highest bidder of his 10 teams, or refused the trade and hurt the team and sullied his rep I think
The team he went to would have to have a lot of cap, so they would be weakened to clear it. And it is so rare for drafted players want to leave
I just had a quick look, and I think Tampa Bay is the only team in the NHL who doesn’t currently have at least $14M in free cap space for the 24-25 season.
That would be on a 7 year contract. The Oilers are the only team that could give him 8 years.
100% true and 100% amazing.
I think some will look at this and think that he needs to change his game as he’s been injured in the playoffs but, truth be told, I don’ think his style of play led to his playoff injuries:
2022 – Mikey Andreson with the dirty slew foot leading to the high ankle sprain
2023 – Alex Pieterangelo with an egregious and viscous chop the wrist/forearm
2024 – I believe his back/ribs issue was a cross-check from behind
So happy to have this man on board for 9 more seasons. 2022 proved he doesn’t need to be able to skate to provide elite production!
Availability is a player’s main attribute. Some players seem to get hurt more than others. To me players can be mindful of avoiding what they can. For example Zadorov. If he’s on the ice you have to be aware of where he is and avoid him. He plays to injure and he’s so big he can
He broke Drai’s rib and Tkachuk’s sternum the year previous. Some players want to play tough, for me your best players shouldn’t be playing too physically, other players should do that. It’s been a problem with how the roster was built, the bottom 6 not having that type of player, enough of them, or players they wouldn’t use like Erne
All players get banged up of course, but if the Oiler’s best players are healthy enough, they will win cups. They would have beat Florida. Sometimes when I watch Connor he is so focused on the play he isn’t being aware enough of what his opponents are up to, there are some close calls. Everyone was going after Gretzky 24/7, but he made it very hard to get contact on him, and that meant he could play 20 seasons
Hopefully we see healthier Connor and Leon in playoffs in the future
Someone needed to tune Zadorov in maybe Brown will step up as Desi was surprisingly way to tame. We need a couple of players that can bring the filth. I’m not allowing the Pospisal of the league to run my 2 star 1/4 billion assets. The Rangers got tired of watching Panarin get bullied so they brought in Rempe.
Josh Brown can draw in and attempt to “tune Zadarov in” and I would expect it would have ZERO impact on Zadarov’s play against Drai and the Oilers.
It takes Zadarov off the ice and splits his attention then it helps. we all know that he won’t go hide in the locker room though.
I agree, to a point. Players like Rempe and Reaves are puck optional. You need guys with skill. Evander Kane, though injured a lot recently, is an ideal archetype of a power forward who can make the opponent pay in a number of ways.
Leon Draisatil has missed 9 games in his NHL career and zero games in the playoffs (he’s got a few less games played but I think that was end of season healthy scratch this past year and the year prior).
Sure, some playoff games have been limited due to injury but “availability” has been elite.
I put Leon’s numbers up for the last three series they were eliminated in, and he has been a non factor in a lot of games. He gets hurt, isn’t effective, he’s playing but not available to his normal level. They previously had no options to replace him on higher lines and get by
Injury can’t be avoided, I think they can be mitigated, I’ll put more responding to BIAGJ
I largely agree with this viewpoint, but it does fail to reflect that sometimes your skill players are physical. Kane, for instance, is absolutely a skill player who is also a legitimate deterrent. Had he been healthy, especially in the finals, that would have tipped the scales in a meaningful way.
And Leon is plenty physical to begin with. I don’t mind it either, gives him a bit more room when guys know he has no qualms pushing back. Connor, too, is underrated for how greasy he can be. Now, like you’ve said before, I don’t want them taking themselves out of the play looking for a Kassian style hit, but being opportunistic can make the opposition think twice just long enough to be vulnerable to being exploited.
I think there are actually players on the roster that could do with being more physical at times. Nurse comes to mind — he seems to have lost his bite that gave him an edge in years past.
I have thought for years there was a push from the org for players to play a heavier game. At the same time not really setting the roster up to be that. Some players are built for it like Kane listed at 218lbs, his injuries aren’t all related to his play, but the hip hernia things likely are
Leon is a bigger guy, and I think that push lead him to try to be more of a power forward. To me that means things like trying to reverse check which he does, play through players. But you have to be aware of who it is. Like Zadorov, just stay away and make him move. Be aware of guys coming at you, don’t let them get a whack or do something dirty
Barkov is bigger than Leon, but doesn’t really play that physically. Dirty as anything, Connor and Leon should continue to do that, give it back, but less contact. Players should always take players along the boards like when forechecking, block them etc, but that isn’t always a hard check
Connor throwing so many checks to me isn’t worth the risk. He’s a slighter guy, Leon is listed as 15lbs heavier. To me the two best players should be more concerned with being able to play at their level, let the other guys use the body. I also think they have amped up their physical play because there aren’t enough players that do it
KK isn’t into hitting he says for the sake of it, we’ll see how things go this season. I just don’t want the top skill guys too banged up when it’s go time to do their thing
Again largely agree.
But also think it’s imperative that to a man guys are willing to dish out some punishment or retribution to keep the opposition honest.
Just don’t go walkabout doing so.
I would also suggest that McDavid’s physicality in puck retrieval is a big part of his game. He leads with his shoulder and comes away with the puck and McDavid with the puck in the offensive zone is a good thing.
My goodness. Draisaitl has missed a total of 9 games due to injury/illness in his entire (almost 10 year) career.
Pretty sure it was Tyler Myers who hurt Draisaitl’s ribs, and Zadarov didn’t even play in the playoffs in 2023 – it was Kolesar who injured Tkachuk.
$128M over a 7 year contract would have an AAV of $18.3M. Wow.
He signed for another 8 = 16M AAV
I know that, but no team other the Oilers could sign him for 8 years. The max for all other teams is 7 years.
So, rounding up a bit, 16.3AAV.
Not sure where you’re getting 18 from?
NM
I remember Draisaitl’s draft year – watching highlights of his passing in the WHL – and thinking, man this guy would be awesome for the Oilers. His draft was perhaps the first for me, where I was deadset on a player who wasn’t first overall, and cheered really loud when the Oilers called his name.
Wasn’t long after that when I dragged the girlfriend down to Clare Drake arena to watch him, along with Nurse, play the Golden Bears. I remember walking away from that game with some genuine optimism for the future.
10 years later, Draisaitl has locked into what could end up being a complete career in Oilers’ silks. With it, him and his fiancée took to the media to gush about their love of the team, the city, and the community.
Sincerely hope that the other shoe (McDavid) drops next summer, but man, after the verbal beating this city has taken from the likes of Vancouver and Toronto fans, about how we don’t deserve the likes of a Draisaitl or McDavid for daring to be a bit too far north, a bit too cold, a bit too small… well, I don’t have to say what I really feel, so I’ll leave it at a sincere thank you to Draisaitl! Here’s to another 9 years in an Oilers jersey and a well-deserved Cup (or two… or three)!
Absolutely the same for me! First time I wanted him over all the others. Not cuz I’m particularly clever, but because he seemed like exactly what we didn’t have. Big strong center set up guy. Pretty dreamy. And that was before he became the number one spec basher!
The problem of course with this narrative that an elite player should leave millions on the table to help build the team elsewhere, is it assumes competent management that would spend this money wisely.
Given the Oilers have spent like drunken sailors on the likes of Nurse and Campbell and failed to get Bromberg and Holloway locked down, that’s hardly a safe assumption for the player to make.
When I see the peeps around me giving up salary to make the company more successful, I’ll believe this should be a thing. Until then, Leon’s job is to earn his contract through elite play on the ice. Optimizing the team’s cap is not his responsibility. Last I checked, they hire capologists for that.
I’d say the odds that Skinner re-signs have jumped dramatically in the last few days.
With his skating ability I’d take him for another three years or so after this one.
But can we afford him?
I guess it depends on what Skinner himself values. We’re talking about a guy with nearly $90M in career earnings who, at this point, has had not even a sniff at playing games that matter. He’s certainly never going to be short of money (assuming he hasn’t managed it like dunce), so does he chase even more dollars, or does he value the opportunity for — potentially — multiple Stanley Cups?
Skinner hasn’t had a playoff game in his career with the buyout cash he’s still making 9 million a season. Skinner has hopefully opened the door for useful players who have been bought out
Where do you come up with a figure like $9MM?
The buyout is $2,444,444 over six years, though the AAV against the cap for BUF varies for the first three seasons.
Source:
https://puckpedia.com/player/jeff-skinner/buyout?c=5078
I don’t think it makes any difference.If he plays well he’ll expect a raise, we’re not giving him one. He’s a one year rental.
Can’t be anything but a one-year rental. The impact of Draisaitl’s new deal and the hits from Bouchard’s/(goalie)Skinner’s next deal means cap space is the only thing that matters next year. I expect Kane may need to be shipped off.
Its weird, but its possible that EDM getting to game 7 of the SCF was the best thing to happen to this team.
The Draisaitl decision was forced when 29 & 97 hadn’t won a Cup together, but got as close as you possibly could.
There seems to be an ‘unfinished business’ aspect to all of this.
Had they won, Drasiatl may have thought more about moving to another team.
I still bet that he would have said (given some of his verbal yesterday), but I think the option of leaving would have not had as negative in his and 97’s minds.
I could be wrong, but it feels like this is/was possible.
If memory serves me correctly, the ‘06 final appearance was the exact opposite. They ended up overpaying for guys based on that performance. Guys like Stoll, Horcoff, and Torres etc. come to mind. They all commanded handsome new contracts after that run. Next to Pronger’s trade request, this was another big problem for management and really laid the groundwork for the DOD.
It definitely helps but I think Draisaitl and (soon) McDavid are re-signing because OEG has handed them the keys to the kingdom. Every team would make space for McDavid or Draisaitl but only Edmonton can offer building an entire organisation around them.
I think this is possible as well – although I think if that was the ultimate motivator, maybe he pulls a Matthews and only signs a 4 year deal. The 8 year deal to me really speaks to how much he genuinely loves Edmonton and the organization.
— I can’t think of a superstar winning a Cup in prime that signed the off-season with another team. That would be akin to a MacKinnon kucherov kuznetsov O’reily kane malkin etc leaving after their cup.
— It just doesn’t happen that D&D stars leave in their prime after a Cup hat I can think of: kind of against the “old school code” IMO.
— Had they finished the year like they started however, have little doubt Drai was leaving.
Seperate it’s crazy to read that Drai has played more games as an Oiler than Gretz. When I think back to a young Kinger and all these years later Gretz = Oilers that blew me away.
— Some lucky kids today get 2x Gretz Mess with McDrai For the sake of those kids: win some bloody Cups
Stamkos is the closest, and he really wanted to return to TB, but they opted to sign Guentzal instead.
— if that’s the closet : it’s not really that close.
— Stamkos is what 35, 4-5 seasons removed from winning his first Cup. No way he was leaving after winning that first cup.
— superstars in their 20s prime don’t leave their home team after winning the cup. They just don’t.
I have a favorite Oiler from each era that I have watched.
Early (must include play in the WHA): Dave Semenko (2 WHA / 8 NHL)
Championship Era: 99
Pre-97: Ryan Smyth (15 Oiler seasons)
Current: 97
Special Consideration: RNH
Dynasty: Tikkanen
Post-Dynasty: Cujo
Current: McDavid
And that’s a tough list to assemble.
Some Honourable Mentions (no order): Coffey, Guerin, Weight, Hemsky, Salo, Niinimaa, Mironov, Hamrlik, Brewer, Staios, Carter, Perron, RNH, Eberle, Grier, Ranford…
An Honourable Mention that I missed: Risto Siltenan
Dynasty Era – Fuhr, Anderson
post Dynasty-Smyth
Today – McDavid
Honorable mention – Coffey, Simpson, Weight, Cujo, Hall
Off the board favorites- Mclelland, Dave Brown, Beukeboom, Laraques, Pronger (1 year) Jussi Markanen
Doug Weight
Ryan Smyth
Ales Hemsky
Taylor Hall
Leon Draisaitl
I was a huge Kurri fan growing up. Wore #17 while playing for a lot of years because of him.
I know this doesn’t guarantee Mcdavid signs. But I think this makes it incredibly likely.
I think it all but guarantees it. Barring the team crashing and burning I’m calling 8/132 next summer.
I find it very interesting that what I’d consider shortsightedness is still viewed so simply in sports – hockey specifically.
Leon (and Connor) both likely end up with more money, more championships, and a larger legacy, if both take $10M/yr and say to the owners/management “spend that extra 10 elsewhere every year”.
Endorsements, legacy projects, future jobs beyond playing hockey, many other little things adding up…all have monetary (and other) value beyond a simple players’ contract.
What is 4 title Leon worth post-retirement vs 2 or even 1 title Leon? More. A lot more.
NFL QBs have restructured deals for this exact purpose for years and it has paid off in spades.
I don’t begrudge #29 and am glad he will be here for the long run. He’s built for a lot of wars ahead. I just think he could’ve done better for both himself and the team. Largest emphasis on himself honestly. It’s his call as it is with anyone – but are any agents speaking to their clients with the long term view? I’m not seeing it if they are.
I want to be clear – I am not suggesting these guys should be giving up something or “not being selfish” – quite the opposite actually. Get exactly what you want and deserve – it is just plenty more than the deal alone.
I guess it’s the difference between ‘likely’ and guaranteed. What if he gets injured? I don’t think you can insure the possibility of future earnings from future possible championships. A bird in the hand kind of thing.
Then he takes his $80M and works with his investment advisors/friends/business connections/the owner/whoever to become a very rich man, a very charitable man, a very innovative man…whatever he wants. We’re talking marginal gain between $80M and $112M. We’re talking much larger possible gain between 1 championship and 4.
What larger possible gain are you talking about here?
It’s the old wager of potential vs. guaranteed money. He might make more money then by taking less now, but that assumes the GM actually uses that money/cap space wisely. It assumes that the dice roll their way, and more than once. It assumes he doesn’t (touch wood) suffer a major injury before they win those championships (NFL QBs may as well be wrapped in memory foam compared to what Leon puts up with). It assumes those endorsements actually arrive, or that he even wants to do endorsements. There’s also pressure from the union not to take “sweetheart” deals because they’re mostly going to benefit the owners anyway.
Add all that up and taking the guaranteed money now seems like a pretty good deal, both in the short and long term.
The NHL is not the NFL. And I don’t think this applies to Leon at all. If the Oilers win multiple cups, Connor will get all the endorsement deals in North America. Leon is the greatest hockey player in German history, but it’s still a niche sport sport. Whatever endorsement deals he gets will unlikely add up to $32 million, winning a cup or not.
if McDavid cuts his salary by $5 mill a year and wins some cups, will it generate an extra $40 mill in endorsements. Maybe. But again this isn’t the NFL.
I’d say it could easily generate much more than both of those totals.
#97 already makes over $5M/year in deals. Without a championship and without pushing it too hard on that front.
Leon’s already got just as many deals as Connor for not as much money. The idea he wouldn’t be able to expand that with championships and profile as well is again – shortsighted.
The greatest player the game has ever seen was sold for peanuts. And the remaining greats were gone within 5 years. This is a business and loyalty lasts as long as the last GM.
‘Future legacy’ is a pipe-dream that few ever realize.
Get paid fellas, get paid.
And I think Drais likely did leave some change on the table. As will McD. Bouch won’t as he hasn’t cashed in yet.
Gretzky without Cups wouldn’t be anything like what he has become – and it has paid off like crazy.
Pocklington selling his best asset that could have kept right on making him money is a whole other discussion about being stupid at business.
This is a false correlation. There were many others on those teams that did not parlay the moments into future legacy. Anderson has 6 cups.
Gretz was a generational talent that was able to capitalize.
I’m not an NBA fan but Charles Barkley never won a championship yet is carving out a very nice second career/legacy.
I’m not trying to be completely oppositional as I do agree on some level. But there are no players leaving money on the table for future endorsements. They may take a small discount to assist the team win, but the suggestion that it is about ‘legacy’ doesn’t resonate with me.
Leon is quite obviously the Messier equivalent (with some Kurri thrown in to boot) – and he’s done very very well for himself in many different ways. Would he be the same if he’d never won or only once? Doubtful.
I don’t know. Hopefully, the script writes itself with multiple championships!
Would Messier have the same legacy if he never won in New York.
For that comparison to ring true, Leon needs to leave Edmonton and lead his own team to a championship, no?
Messier established his legacy imo when he won the Cup in 90 without Gretzky. Combine that with 3 previous Cups and the 2 Canada Cup titles and he was looked upon league wide as the consummate leader and winner. That’s why NY wanted him. Winning in New York made him a demigod in that City, but in terms of NHL legacy, the 6th Cup only cemented what was already established from his 5 Cups with the Oil imo.
The Rangers Cup is magnified because of the media market it occured in but big picture wise, Mess had already hoisted it 5 times including once as Oiler captain. 94 may have been his coming out party in the US but they were way late to the party.
Right, a key was winning without Gretzky – something Drai won’t have the opportunity to accomplish in Edmonton (likely).
Yeah, giving Barkov ‘the Messier’ is like the cherry on top.
If Gretz hadn’t won cups he wouldn’t have finished his career with the same prestige he did. It would have proven the naysayers right, and there were lots. I imagine he wouldn’t have much profile now, more than other talented players. He certainly wouldn’t be on TV, up until TNT or whatever he wasn’t exactly charismatic
Aren’t agents paid a percentage of the contract? I see your point but I can’t see an agent advising a player to do something that would hurt the agents paycheck.
Not just contract – percentage on endorsements and all that too. At least typically.
Do players retain their sports agents post-hockey career? I really have no idea. I figured they were agents that specialised in advertising and endorsements. Or maybe that is also what a sports agent does.
Name one person in the world that would give up a guaranteed $32 million dollars?
would you? If you tell me you would if you’re in Drai’s situation, I’d call you a liar. So why would you expect someone else to do it?
Post-hockey “legacy” can be had regardless of Cups … look at PK Subban and Hank Lundqvist. It depends on how good of a self-promoter you are, and not how many Cups you’ve won.
In the NFL – Tony Romo never won anything, but he’s getting bank as a broadcaster now.
Charles Barkley never won a title either, and he’s the face of NBA on TNT, and gets paid more now than he ever did as a player.
There is no guarantee that taking Connor or Leon taking less would lead to winning more Cups either.
I’m not sure that giving up $32MM of guaranteed money over the next 8 years, investible in real time over the course of those 8-years is advisable in the name of “championships” leading to even more money later.
Championships that remain FAR from guaranteed with this approach.
I’m thinking that endorsement opportunities for Connor McDavid will remain enormous and Leon will remain the King of Germany as it relates to hockey lore.
Leon signed not only the largest contract in team history, but that of the entire NHL. Kudos to him for having earned it in spades.
He’s an interesting player, in that with such high talent comes even higher expectations from the casual (and often vocal) fan.
Leon is above the 90th percentile for top speed, speed bursts, and distance covered (98th for the latter two in the playoffs). Yet many call him a poor skater, lazy, even. Tough crowd.
One of the finest 3v5 PK players in the league, but often cited as defensively suspect.
Guy is an annual lock to score 50 goals but folks will often loudly proclaim he’s too predictable and needs to change up his game to be successful.
A big man who plays a physical game, but constantly criticized for being injured in the playoffs and unable to perform. While simultaneously being #5 all time for points per game in NHL playoff history.
Top it all off that he’s admitted he reads his press and is obviously well aware of the criticisms but keeps on plugging away. He hones his craft and continues to develop.
I love that he’s elected to renew his contract here and cannot wait to see what unfolds over the coming decade.
Great post and fully agree.
From my perspective, the Leon Haters seem to be the epitome of ‘saw him bad’ anecdotal evidence types. They see a cross seam pass get picked off or a slow change when he’s gassed and that becomes the dominant narrative in their mind. Not the bottom line production.
By the numbers AND by the eye test, he’s a top 5 player in this league. But what are you going to do? Haters gonna hate.
Lets not forget the go to faceoff guy on the team, for years – and great at it.
Minor comment on formatting, but really appreciate not having the huge list of article links to scroll through. I find I’m more apt to click a new link when it’s the only choice presented (omw to read that right meow, in fact).
Still waiting for Ashley to drop By and explain how this could have happened.
I was just chatting with Ashley about that recently.
If Draisaitl had not wanted to sign with the Oilers, the only logical alternative would have been to demand a trade at the beginning of the summer (or sooner).
As a player, the risk of playing out the last year would have been too risky financially.
Different players and circumstances, but you have Pacioretty who at 35 still just signed a 1-year deal at $2m or Pat Kane at $4m.