This is a list of the ‘uncertain Oilers’ from September 2015. What a list! You know, every damn one of these cats played in the NHL over the next decade, and one of them is going to be in the Hockey Hall of Fame someday. Oh to have that list now! Of course, the 2015 pool of talent was made possible by poor play over an extended period. The current Oilers are miles from this time in the winning cycle. Before we get to the ‘uncertain’ we must agree on the ‘certain’ Oilers. Can we?
THE CERTAIN OILERS 2024-25
There’s no use pussyfooting around the large number of impact veterans who are 100 percent going to make the roster. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the way among forwards, but the list of high quality players that follow is unprecedented in the McDavid era. This team has guys!
Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown, all locks. That’s nine forwards. Evander Kane, Derek Ryan and Corey Perry are also in the mix, and could bring the total to 12 if all are healthy and win jobs this fall. My suspicion is we’ll see some or all three of them spend time unavailable due to various maladies throughout the season.
Among the young set I think we can place in the certain pile, I’ll include only Vasily Podkolzin. Raphael Lavoie and Roby Jarventie have a chance, but are uncertain Oilers at this time. It’s a stark reality about this team: Much of the youth has been cut off at the pass. Most of what we see coming through the other side is horses with no riders.
Matthew Savoie is going to play for the Bakersfield Condors this season, and I’m going to call him the most important ‘uncertain’ Oilers player in the group. We might see Noah Philp too, and perhaps James Hamblin and Lane Pederson. Savoie is the marquee name here. When you look at the right-wing depth chart, it’s easy to imagine he sees the light of day in the NHL this coming season.
On defense, the locks are Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Troy Stecher, Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson. After that, I’m going to suggest the uncertain list will include Josh Brown, Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Ben Gleason, Noel Hoefenmayer and Connor Carrick. I haven’t decided if Max Wanner is ‘uncertain’ or a ‘distant bell’ but I will mention him here.
I don’t know if we see additional PTO’s this fall, there may be an appetite to see what the current group can do. I will say that history tells us if you have six candidates for the No. 4 spot on your defence you have no good candidates for the No. 4 spot on your defence. If they’re all different shades of grey, you’re in a spot of bother. I’m fine with looking to the future with Ty Emberson, you can bring a young player along on the third pairing with ease.
That Stecher spot is going to tell us a lot about this season. I would not have been completely satisfied with any of the options (Philip Broberg leading the way) and Stecher’s track record is significant and has some good indicator lights. I don’t think there’s better in the PTO pile, and if any in this PTO group is looking for a guaranteed contract or guaranteed playing time, well, that’s a conversation to walk.
In goal, the depth chart of certain Oilers is Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. I have Olivier Rodrigue as the number three man, with Collin Delia (‘s gone) and Connor Ungar as the distant bells.
It’s September! Time to look at the certain, uncertain and distant bells. Whaddya got?
It’s the Lowdown, Monday edition on Sports 1440 and we start at noon sharp. Jason Gregor will drop in to talk Oilers, Elks, NFL weekend, US Open and more on a day when it seems every sport is alive. Your comments feed the show, so make sure to send in your opinion! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Can the Edmonton Oilers ice three scoring lines in 2024-25?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5753444/2024/09/09/edmonton-oilers-scoring-lines-2024/
One more round!
As Mentioned, coach confirms a D PTO will be announced soon.
Stauff shuts down DeAngelo, Shtternkirk and Shultz. He does say he would have Shultz as #1.
Mentions Dermott as having not heard his name connected anywhere.
Coach does want to get some of the young players that have a good shot at making the team getting time with some good players in exhibition (in addition to the projected lines to get them together).
Said min 3, prob max 4, exhibition games for most of the top guys.
Coach told Stauff that they will not be relying on PP1 less – they will play the most but it is important for PP2 to get a bit more time. skinner and Arvy need time PP touches but they will still rely on the main unit.
Plan on having Arvy and Podz help on PK. Emberson will get used on the PK and coach mentioned Bouch with more PK minutes and using kulak on his off side on the PK.
From OilerAlert a few hrs ago, FWIW.
Seemingly directly from Knoblauch (I guess he was on Oilers+?).
He was on Oilers Now with Stauff.
I haven’t listened yet as I’m out east on business and it just happened. Will listen at gym tomorrow.
Coffey was unofficially confirmed a month ago or so but Knob was in ON today and confirmed the entire coaching staff will be back.
Jarventie is not listed on the Rookie Camp roster. Maybe he’s “aged out” but there are pros like Wanner and Petrov that will be there.
less than enthused about this.
Still injured I guess? That was mentioned as a possibility when he was acquired, wasn’t it?
There was never any official word from the org on the nature of the surgery or timeline and even some differing accounts from the masses on when he had the surgery.
I believe I recall Keith Gretzky talking about him and not fully discounting he gets cut from the big club but talking about him playing big minutes for the Condors. Gave no indication of any issues.
Beryozkin with a PPG and 5 shots on net in a 2-0 win.
Now 1G/2A in 3 games.
Fun interview with Perry. Nothing new really but fun.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers-corey-perry-still-going-strong?taid=66df724b6e39f60001aa5ac1
Adam Larsson staying out with an ugly 5.25 x 4 contract. Seattle is no Vegas
Oh wow.
Remember when Ryan didn’t want to give him $4M x 4 back in 2020?
He’ll be 32 in November, so he’ll turn 33 very early in this new deal.
I guess that sucks the wind out of one narrative for a 2RD pickup at the TD.
Nice for both him and EDM! Helps open the door for the possible acquisition of pending UFA Borgen if SEA isn’t in the hunt at the deadline. He checks a lot of the boxes and would also be a great offseason target next year!
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Borgen
Kulak Emberson
Larsson will be 33 a month in to that deal.
I can’t imagine it ages well – it could go bad before it even kicks in.
Leon mentions:
1) He could have used an extra 3 weeks or so of the off-season to get ready but excited to get going.
2) He hated playing against Arvidsson and is looking forward to playing with him.
3) Yes, a long ways to go to the playoffs but first they need to get there. They will learn from their early mistakes from last year but they need to get to the playoffs first and look to be up the standings.
4) Not the same team as last year. Yes, alot of the same pieces and they want to do alot of the same things but they need to find this year’s identity and be better.
Somewhere out there is a big 23 year old winger who is waiting for a chance. They are full of promise but due to injury or being blocked, has fallen out of favour. That guy is hopefully identified right now by Parketti, and they are watching him for the opportunity to grab him.
Or maybe he’s already here?
Vasili Podkholzin is 23 years of age.
What do think about his new opportunity? I believe he’s freshly married, hungry and wants to show the N.H.L that he belongs He does have the pedigree and will get a huge push by Bowman and the committee. Bowman pegged Panarin Tocchet doesn’t seem to like Russian dressing. I still don’t get why they traded for so little against a division rival. If Podkolzin goes on a heater early this will bite them in the ass immediately.
A very low risk bet for the Oilers that could pay off.
His opportunities in Vancouver were very limited after they signed DeBrusk, Heinen, Sherwood and Sprong.
The Canucks top forward prospects also project as wingers so very little room to allow him to grow.
Raphael Lavoie>
V. Podkozin?
Zero evidence to support that.
That > was supposed to be a question mark. That post was not meant to state that Lavoie was better than Podz although he was better last season in the AHL.
The Oilers will feature a PlayAlberta logo on their jerseys this season.
Outrage ensues.
https://x.com/thecultofhockey/status/1833262700241052117?s=61
I don’t gamble and don’t like what’s happened, but since they went this route what does it matter? Just don’t have athletes promoting the various companies because kids, just like cigarettes or whatever
So, does this mean the illegal MGM ads featuring Gretzky and McDavid will stop? When does in-game betting hit NHL 24?
Everyone wants a cut the Alberta Government partnered with the Devil 33 years ago when they introduced VLT’s everywhere.
Tom Gazzola
McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Hyman, Henrique, Ekholm, C.Brown, Arvidsson, Perry, Kulak, S.Skinner, Pickard, Savoie, Stecher, Bouchard, Lavoie on the ice.
EDIT: Jeff Skinner also on the ice.
Just looking thought the pics in this article from a few days ago: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-oilers-begin-to-arrive-in-edmonton-for-informal-skates
Looks to me like ‘also present’ would include: Hamblin, J. Brown, and I think also Philp (a big forward, #48, featured pretty prominently – and it would make sense for him to be present and ready to go).
Kane, Emberson, Nuge, Henrique, Kemp, Janmark & Ryan still to come?
Seems that way (though the article is also 4 days old, and it’s quite possible I missed a player or two).
I got sidetracked on the 50+ photos included in the article.
If you read to the end (as I finally just did) it clearly says Hamblin, Philp and Josh Brown were present.
Also mentions that Perry and Ryan were in town and part of the skates.
Presumably further additions since the article was published last Thursday.
Yeah, Gazzola’s tweet was from today.
1 there is no way we break camp with Stecher and Emberson as certain. We are 99% trading for 2RD before camp. Book it.
2 the 4th line can look doggy when you list it based on tenure. But I’m confident in the depth of tweeners and competition for making the team and playing time, that some young speed will emerge to make us forget about Holloway. feeling more like 75% certain on that piece.
If we trade for a 2RD, I still think Stecher and Emberson are certain to be on the roster as #6 and #7
Stecher is going into his 12th full time NHL season. He is what he is. My only problem with him is size
Emberson is a wild card, had solid numbers against higher comp, but got hurt 3 times last season so that’s a worry and he’s not proven. Having not been too high on either Des or Ceci I’m not too worried about a loss of quality, they did lose size though
Curlock at ON looked at Emberson, and his style should help Nurse out more than Ceci or Des could. Stecher too
Stetcher also has a considerable injury history.
Maybe that’s why they got so many of them
Stecher only has 8 seasons in the NHL. Because he has been traded at the deadline 3 times, his stats page has 11 lines which may be why you think this season will be 12. He just turned 30 so not old for a guy given only a 2 year deal near league minimum.
Tough to get a full read on him. Undrafted, Vancouver signed him as a free agent out of college at 22 and he only spent 6 games in the AHL before being recalled and he has been in the NHL ever since.
It is a positive sign he has been picked up by playoff teams (or teams trying to get in, the Flames fell short in 2023) at the trade deadline 3 times. LA wished they had played him right for the start of the 2022 series against the Oilers instead of rookie Jordan Spence. Stecher played well the last 4 games of that series.
Too had about his cyst last year. The team could have used him. Shouldn’t be an injury that impacts this season.
I would opine that the chance of a trade for a legit 2RD in the next two weeks is in the apx 5% range.
I would put it at < 1% myself. Maybe we see a PTO but even that is looking less and less likely by the day.
we are Old small and slow up front….I see Ryan and Perry gone, either waived or coaching on the farm…..make way for Lavoie on 3RW and my personal favourite for Rookie of the year….Philp at 4C…we save another $500M and are bigger and faster.
Foegele-McLeod-Holloway we lost speed and size but all 3 had cement hands as well as the jitters playing inside hockey. Skinner-Arvidsson-Henrique all 3 go to paint and are a real threat to score. I don’t know how Jackson did it but he managed to replenish our forward pool. O’Reilly-Savoie-Jarventie-Podkolzin-Philip. This is a exciting group to cheer on there’s anywhere from singles to home runs in this crop.
I don’t think Holloway was perimeter, not sure about the hands though
Holloway has expectations now how will the new group in St.Louis take to him. He has 9 career goals and is injury prone he also disappears for long periods of time. The Blues will not be patient like the Oilers were if he doesn’t produce he’s going to find himself in the dog house looking for a new agent. Anyone that parades around in Flames paraphernalia should be escorted out of the City.
Heh heh
I don’t disagree on some of your assessment of Holloway (although he certainly plays on the inside and is very physical) – he could always shoot the puck but his puck skills were always in question (I mentioned this back to his Wisconsin days) and I’m sure the scaphoid has NOT helped.
With that said, my goodness has your tone changed on this player since they moved on from him. It wasn’t long ago that you were convinced he would have been the difference in a playoff series the Oilers all but got swept in.
He jumped on the short-sighted 2 year contract like a dog on a bone. Plain and simple he sold out it was never about opportunity. I’ve said it before he reminds me of Tyler Pittlick who scored some nice goals but like him he’s injury prone if he’s to be effective. When interviewed it was like listening to a young kid who was snookered in by his agent.
You’ve had that comparison to Tyler Pitlick very recently – your prior assessment of Holloway has been VERY different. One can definitely change their opinion on a player over a time – its clear you have completely.
Drive by McLeod is in the East he’ll be lucky to score 15. Foegele the fumbler should give half his salary to Leon because he won’t score 20 ever again. Holloway should of shown more by now without Leon he was beyond ineffective and St.Louis has some talent being blocked by his acquisition. how much patience if he doesn’t produce?
Yes, replenishment was almost as good as could be done, and I hope it continues. To your first point;
Let me comment on losing speed and size. Everyone cannot be all things. Give them fine hands, take away the speed and they are not in the NHL. Give them all 20 goals and they cannot be afforded.
The puck comes off only 1 goal scorers stick. The work prior to that point is considerable effort by (generally) many skaters. The application of speed, effort, physicality combines to get the puck onto the shooters stick. I say this as performance cannot be measured just by points.
Besides cosmetic what good is speed if it’s not used property. McLeod and Foegele have not only speed but size yet they had few breakaways and would rarely bust down the wing aka Glenn Anderson. Both were benched and now that Foegele has his contract he’ll become a total cream puff like McLeod. Skinner Arvidsson Henrique are clearly upgrades when it comes to going to the paint and scoring. As nice as it is to watch Barbara Ann Scott I’ll take scoring thank you very much.
I’m just glad they got some guys that can shoot. Seems a priority now. After years of mostly playmakers and few that dangerous, trying to bang the puck in on the ice, not being able to get it up over the goalie
Being a threat from distance opens things up by stopping the goalie from cheating pass, better shooters means converting more close in plays as well, which is harder on the goalie than if they know you are going low or trying to deke mostly
Look what a difference Bouch makes because he is dangerous. Opens the PP up because they have 2 shooters to worry about. Get a RS for the left wall and things get really fun
Now that Bouchard is a weapon the opposition only has 1 place to cheat and that’s on Nuge who needs to keep the SH crew honest walk in and hit the net. Mike Bossy the best ever (Fuk I hated the Islanders as much as the Flames) anyhow Bossy said you can only score if you hit the net.
I cannot see any way both Perry or Ryan make it 82 games. Maybe 40 each at the most but doubtful, so if the plan is to have some veterans ready then that is fine.
I also do not see Henrique, Janmark, Brown playing at playoff level for 82 games.
And I would like McDavid and Draisaitl to not have to go at 100% for 82 games.
Because of this, I like Savoie’s chances to play 30 games. Podkolzin to play 65, and Jarventie to get 20. Emberson at least 60 games.
I think Lavoie gets a chance because the Oilers know they need size so he gets 12 games to start the season, then ends up as a trade piece to bring in more size. Somebody yet to be named comes in as an energy winger similar to Klim Kostin and gets 45 games.
Just my thoughts.
I have more questions than answers going into this season or at least more questions than I think a contending team should have.
There is an extremely strong group of forwards on this team but skill up front replaced size and speed to some extent. Individually the players coming in are stronger than those who left but is the mix right?
And then there is no identifiable fourth line. Sorry. Ryan is not a centre in this league anymore no matter how much you have to love the career he has carved out for himself. Perry is old enough to have a son in training camp with him and he is not Gordie Howe.
There are four strong dmen set to break camp in spite of the long discussion concerning Nurse and his cap hit. And two spots that are at least a question if only because they are new to the team.
Knoblauch and Coffey are about to run their first NHL training camp. That is different than arriving in season with the house on fire. Add in a new management group with unknowns of their own.
So I have questions.
The post today is about who will break camp with the team but I think that is the easy part. How the parts fit together is far less certain imo.
From season to season there’s always a turnover of rosters not only with Edmonton, but every team in the league. Name one team that doesn’t have questions heading into the season. Every team in the league is looking to improve their roster one way or another, it’s the nature of the beast. I would have to say though that Edmonton most likely has fewer questions than most, considering their roster is nearly set except for who plays 2RD, 3 RD & who’s going to be the 7th and whether they go with an 8th D. And I’d rather only wonder about the fourth line than the first, second or third lines. Also, Knoblauch & Coffey have no shortage of good players to coach, and they want to win, because they can.
Yeah, but other team’s questions wasn’t the focus of my post. I listed the questions I think management should have going into TC. That’s all.
There are lots of reasons to be positive no doubt. Edmonton will for many years to come, have less questions.
To me it comes down to this.
First, why did they go to game 7 with Vancouver?
Why did they soundly beat Dallas?
And why did they lose to the Panthers?
This isnt just about assembling the best skilled players you can find. It is about recognizing what limited you and addressing it. I do have questions about this roster as well.
They have a lot of the same pieces from last year’s team. But they won’t be the same team . Last year’s in the past and this year they need to be better . That’s all there is to it.
That is kind of the message that GM Bowman has been preaching as well.
I’ve heard him say it like 3 times. Something he learned over the years is the mistake of thinking that next year’s team will be the same as the prior team and just needing to “fill in the holes”.
Each year is its own year with uniqueness. Some players will have regression years from the prior year, some will have better years. There will be different injuries, etc.
This team is this year’s team, not last year’s team with some changes.
Tho not yewts the new veteran wingers have boots. No (minimal) loss of speed there.
I also prefer to see what we got with all these RDs before calling them failed or insufficient out the block. Could be they’re more than enough for the 82 games slog, and if so maybe you can sit tight until the TD.
I’m sure that is the plan. I didn’t mean to imply that they can’t get the job done – I know nothing about Emberson – just that they are questions.
I listed the questions I have – and that I think Oilers management should have – going into TC.
This will be the shortest offseason of these players and management careers. In saying that with the savvy upgrades I see no Stanley cup losing blues. This team finally has a healthy 3rd line centre which will have us running on all cylinders. We are going to see 45-50 more goals no more Jacques Lemaire 2-1 low event games. let the horses run free let’s get back to 7-3 beatfowns the Oil way
If a teams question marks are fourth line and third pair, it’s a good sign imo.
Especially fourth line, which rarely affects the game 5 on 5 imo. Nice to have a couple of PK guys on that line to keep the ice time down for players further up the order. Ryan and Janmark fit the bill. Perry, not so much.
2RD remains the big question mark in my mind
I’ll be interested to see who they give first crack at it. Emberson or Stetcher.
Health and readiness will be a factor. They know Stetcher can do it a pinch. I think they’ll go with Coach K.K who turned Emberson into a all-star at a young age in the A.H.L. He surely doesn’t have the Broberg pedigree but could this be a blessing if he meshes with Nurse.
The off season looks a lot better if Emberson can seize that 2RD spot and grow into it.
Not disagreeing with you, just adding my 2 cents.
The questions I see entering camp are 4C (not so much ‘4th line’) and 2RD (not so much 2/3RD). Also mix, though to some degree that’s always a question.
The bottom 6 default (if Kane is not playing) is:
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
A 4C to push Ryan/Perry to 4RW would make things ‘look right’ for me. There’s also a reasonable amount of hope that one or more of Savoie, Lavoie, Jarventie or Philp can add to that group and/or step in for injuries.
2RD is clearly a question. I think there’s enough cover that 3RD isn’t a question, even though we don’t know who will settle there.
Your mention of ‘four strong dmen’ also reminded me that if Emberson/Stecher fail in that role, Kulak is still an option on the 2nd pair.
That doesn’t really change 2RD being the major question for this team, but it does add to the cover at that spot.
Yup. I originally wrote all of this and more and then decided it was approaching thesis length and cut it in half. 🥸
And I lost Kane when I did that. If he can start the season it is going to make the decision on who plays 3LW very interesting.
If Kane is healthy then does that mean Nuge drops down to play 3LW because Kane really isn’t suited to play there on a defense first line with Henrique and Brown or do they put Kane there and put Perry on 3RW and try to make it a top 9 offense first team with Brown & Janmark 2/3 of a defensive 4th line?
I see the strength in the individuals but how they form the lines will make TC intriguing imo. And who gets first shot at 2RD? Stetcher or Emberson? That will be a tell as well I would think.
I need Philp to show up. I can’t find any way to make a fourth line look like a line if they put Ryan in at 4C. Sorry.
Philp is key. If he’s playing with Janmark & Brown on a fourth line that might ease his transition to the NHL. But then who plays on the third line with Henrique? Fun times.
I suspect the bottom six will be fluid.
Lavoie/Henrique/Brown
Janmark/Philp/Perry (Podkolzin)
Yeah, I wrote more and pared things down as well.
First off, I didn’t mean to say a 4th line with Ryan at C looks sustainable. I agree a 4C is needed. I meant that after adding a 4C that Podkolzin and a platoon of Perry and Ryan looks reasonable (you may not agree).
And where Kane plays if healthy is definitely a big question (as are the possibilities if he’s not). Someone may drop down, but I also think they aren’t likely to run a dedicated 3rd checking line for most of the season (I don’t think Janmark-Henrique-Brown on opening night is likely – I called that the ‘default’ but I more meant the ‘fallback’).
Given that, I’d be less surprised than most (seemingly) to see Kane on the 3rd line. And it’s not like Henrique is a defensive 3C, he’s been almost exclusively a 1/2C thoughout his career aside from the 2024 playoffs.
Kane-Henrique-Brown or Kane-Henrique-Savoie would be intriguing IMO (potentially Perry and others too). That’s acknowledging that Janmark being there, and a more dedicated checking role for the 3rd line, becomes more likely as the playoffs approach.
I’d add that Ryan as a 4C stopgap looks more palatable to me if Janmark and Brown are his wingers.
Also agree that Emberson vs. Stecher starting at 2RD will be very interesting and informative.
Clearly Philp earning the 4C spot would be a godsend.
Yeah, quite a few questions, with a couple of them being significant (missing players in the starting 18). Some optimism for solutions as well, though HOPE got us nowhere.
I think we see things pretty much the same way. As I said in my original post this morning I have more questions than answers at this point. The pieces are encouraging but how they fit together is intriguing. Can’t wait for camp to get going.
All the talk about defence being a problem may or may not be true. If we swap out Emberson for Ceci then basically replacing Desharnais on the 3rd pair. That doesn’t seem to be problematic to me. Desharnais was good on the pk but at the end of the day he was a big , slow 3rd pairing defenceman who I think is readily replaceable from within.
NHL_SID had a PK piece up at ON, turns out Des had 2nd worst GA/60 behind Nurse, and was worst in the playoffs. To me 3RD is better now with either Stecher or Emberson, hopefully PK doesn’t suffer
It is a problem if Emberson doesn’t outperform Ceci. The team required an upgrade at 2 RHD last year.
No kidding right. Seems everyone wants to gloss right over this and assume that Emberson is not only better than Ceci, but also a better match for Nurse. There is zero evidence to support either.
I think most are cautiously optimistic that he can handle the 2RD role and maybe be a “better fit” than Ceci was with Nurse the last few years.
I think there are few that think its a lock or assume it just will be the case (except for the exaggerated Ceci-haters).
There is some evidence to support it though – the numbers on Emberson show him very much helping his team against strong comp – the sample size is just too small but there is only one way for small samples to become big samples.
1) does anybody know if Gio plays on the right side much? When he played with Brodie in Calgary, which one played left and which one right?
2) how many NHL contracts do the oilers have? i think its 45 but not sure
3) if the oilers sign Gio or Schultz to a league min deal for $780 and send Brown to the minors that cap saving of $220 is worth $880 at the deadline. Not sure why that isn’t getting more press…
4) for all the people who hate the 3 years Brown got, that is the free cap space way of sending a vet to the minors without having to worry about losing him on waivers
1) Don’t care
2) 43 of 50
3) No and no
4) Yes
The three year term for Brown must have been to reduce risk of waiver claim.
I remember Brodie playing RD. As of 19/20 they weren’t the first pair anymore either
I think the roster is set. Training camp will be for pecking order for call ups. They want to accrue cap and can’t carry 23 and do that. If the last 4 forwards are Janmark, Pod, Ryan and Perry, I can’t see anyone taking their jobs to start, and no AHL D can take a job at the moment either
Opening Day Roster of 22 players. Protects Podkolzin, Savoie and Lavoie from waivers until other rosters are a little more settled. Also, to get Savoie’s ‘bonus’ money on this years cap. This assumes Kane in on IR not LTIR.
Forwards (13)
RNH, 97, Hyman, Skinner, 29, Arvidsson
Janmark, Henrique, Brown, Podkolzin, Lavoie, Savoie, Kane
Defense (7)
Nurse, Bouchard, Viking, Kulak, Emberson, Sketcher, Brown
Goal (2)
Stu / Captain Picard
Can’t see any team claiming Ryan or Perry
That wouldn’t get Savoie’s bonus issue taken care of it Kane is on regular IR.
The key time for that is when they go in to LTIR. He would need to be on the roster at the time they enter LTIR to set the bonus pool.
The roster shown above has more than enough room for Lavoie’s bonus.
The roster shown above has more than enough room for Lavoie’s bonus.
I presume you are talking about Savoie, not Lavoie, as it pertains to bonus.
Savoie’s performance bonus does not count against the cap for this season but, if he vests any of it, its added to the year end cap and, if it puts the team over, it will be a cap penalty next season.
As far as performance bonuses being an issue for cap space this season, that’s only an issue if the team goes in to LTIR and to ensure its not an issue, a player with performance bonuses needs to be on the roster at the time the team goes in to LTIR to create the LTIR bonus pool – if they don’t, and they call up Savoie while in LTIR, his performance bonuses will hit this year’s cap.
In your scenario, with Kane NOT on LTIR, dealing with Savoie’s bonus at opening roster submission, is not a thing – that’s all I was getting at.
Phil Kemp should have every opportunity to take Josh Brown’s spot – unlikely though.
would prefer Schultz… if Bouchard or Stecher get injured there are no RD puck movers
Kemp can “move the puck” at the AHL level. He’s not flinging it around “Bouchard-style” but he’s a smart and efficient outlet passer – don’t know if that will translate to the NHL level.
I think its more important that the d-men can defend. I don’t think Shultz’s ability to “move the puck” at 34 years old is that great and won’t be impactful vis-a-vis his inability to defend against mid-top comp.
Schultz’ defense wasn’t terrible last season, according to the data. Overall his GA/60 was 2.47 (50 percentile) and an xGA of 2.12 (13 lowest in NHL minimum 500 minutes played). Both of those appear fine. The on-ice GF/60 is what was down driving his poor 5 on 5 results.
His advanced stats looked fine against elite, but the on-ice save % for him was 87% vs 92% or more for every other Kraken defender. Is that his play or just bad luck? He didn’t cough the puck up much. He also had the lowest on ice shot% of his career, netting him a PDO of 95.9 (and it was 91.9 against elites) also the lowest of his career and lowest on the Kraken. How much of the terrible on-ice shooting percentage is on him when the rate of scoring chances and high danger chances were only slightly lower?
He will have if he’s at camp. Not sure if he can be that much better to offset why they signed Brown. As LT says he’ll tell us
I think there is a decent chance that Brown’s contract was structured as is to mitigate a waiver claim. The signing was pre-offer sheet and I think it was on the premise that he’d start in the AHL and would be a good vet depth injury call-up.
I agree with this with the one proviso – which is more hope than expectation – and that is that Philp uses TC to make it impossible to send him down allowing Ryan to fade into retirement and maybe player coach in Bakersfield.
I know it is just the 4C spot but still.
I think he will do that, not sure how soon though, he has to be rusty after a year off
Its likely that Ryan and Perry are 11F/12F with Kane as 13F until healthy.
At the same time, at some point:
1) Philp in for Ryan saves $125K (and accruing the daily portion) and might make the team better (MIGHT); and
2) Lavoie (if Podz wins the job and he clears waivers) or maybe even Jarventie in for Perry saves $375K on the cap.
I don’t think they waive Perry but, at the same time, his cap hit at $1.175MM, being the exact amount that can be buried in the AHL with zero dead cap, cannot be a coincidence, can it?
Unless there’s a blockbuster trade before the start of training camp, which still remains a possibility. I think what we see is what we get and that’s not too bad at all, in fact it’s pretty darn good. The top nine forward group is improved, the defense remains a work in process. But when has ever not been the case and most likely there won’t be any raw rookies being broken in, which is bonus. The goaltending was solid enough to make it to game seven of the Stanley cup final remains intact. What else can you say? And the coaching staff IMO is top notch.
Wonder if it will be Lavoie and a pick for a retained David Savard.
My Habs fan buddy is not a fan of good old Dave. Slooooowwwwww
I’m not a fan of big play Dave but a veteran RD that’s ufa at seasons end will eventually show up.
That and they are going to have to deepen LD as well
Does Lavoie have an iota of trade value as a guy that slid through waivers last season and is potentially on the same route this season?
Savard at $3MM plus is not an easy fit.
I’d prefer for Lavoie to earn the open 3LW spot.
Don’t think big play Dave has all that much value either, yet can never have too many veteran D for the stretch especially in a right handed depleted market.
Also, retained on the Habs side.
Imo Lavoie is 4LW or in another market, he’s not beating out Janmark. He’s got to out perform Pod, can he? I’ve been a fan of Lavoie and think he should of gotten more reps last season, especially after he stepped over the boards and murked a guy just by slowly skating forward lol.
If Savard has little or no trade value then I wouldn’t want to be giving up a pick and then making a cap move to fit in his $3MM, right?
Lavoie has all but no trade value but he MAY have value to the Oilers on the ice. For me, he isn’t competing with Janmark who, in my opinion should be locked in to 4LW with Lavoie and Podz competing for 3LW (maybe with Jarventie), assuming no Kane to start.
Can Lavoie beat out Podz? Well, Lavoie was better in the AHL last season and is better on the left side (opposite for Podz, I think – better on the right.
There is the perfect spot in the lineup for Lavoie, LW to Henrique, just waiting there for him to grab. If he can’t grab it, well, then I don’t think he’s an NHL player.
Wasn’t Lavoie a left shot RW who was better on RW until the Oilers switched him to LW as he turned pro?
That just to say I don’t think Lavoie has any advantage based on being ‘better’ on LW vs. RW.
Time will tell on Lavoie vs. Podkolzin. I’d give the edge to the new guy based on prior NHL success, pedigree, age. And there very well may be room for both of them if Kane or anyone else is out of the lineup due to injury or otherwise.
Lavoie is a right shot, always has been.
He’s played both wings but his best offensive success in the AHL has come as LW.
My mistake, I recalled the debate about which wing Lavoie should/would play incorrectly.
Relatedly, what is the evidence is for Podkolzin being better on RW than LW?
My understanding is that Podz is the opposite of Lavoie, left shot that prefers the right shot – I believe I’ve read/heard that.
With Bouch playing 25 min you don’t need a big minute #2 and you probably gonna play essential two 3rd pairing D but I don’t know if we have that.
Are Emberson, Stecher, Brown & possibly Dermott not 3rd pairing defensemen?
And an injury to Bouchard?
Why what have you heard?
He always just says shit like this to get a response. As if injuries don’t impact any other of his “current fancrush” teams. It is a lame, worn out, tired, whiny, pitiful demonstration of a flawed character. Sad really.
You forgot childish and petulant. 🥸
Any team loses quality when one their best D gets hurt. Or a top forward. Stecher and Emberson both played 2nd pair quality comp last season. Given the experience on LD they’ll get by if the team all play the system. Which sometimes they don’t
Just pretend the Oilers are another team and you will say it’s not a problem because the organization has 4 Norris quality D waiting to step up.
Oilers will sign Brogan Rafferty in case of dman injuries and ride that acquisition to the SC.
About as bad as any team losing their stud players
If they stick with the incumbent pairing, not sure Ekholm can play that much (same 5 on 5, switch Bouch’s PP minutes for arms PK minutes).
The 2RD spot reminds me of 10 years ago arguing for a defense by platoon approach. Not having anyone good enough to play up at that spot means you are using guys above their ability, but using the group to cover off for one spot. That will require creative coaching, line matching and zone usage. Will Knoblauch/Coffey and co have the chops to do that? If they can cover the bet to trade deadline (or near it) someone should shake loose who will do the job for the Oilers into the playoffs.
I was listening to 32 Thoughts, and there was a discussion of Cam Fowler moving on. Is he still good or is he cooked? I honestly don’t know and welcome feedback.
If Cam Fowler was an RHD that would be wonderful.
Isn’t he over $6MM for term?
You’re probably right – since I’m back at work/school I don’t have the luxury of time to suss stuff out. Plus, I figured if Anaheim sends him out it would be with $ retained (I have no idea if they still have retention slots open) since it is after when most teams have filled their cap quota.
Although, if the Sharks still have cap room, they are woefully thin on D and he would be a good vet presence to help the young stars. Plus, he doesn’t really have to relocate too far.
*update* He has a $6.5M cap this year and next. Not a good fit for the Oilers for that reason alone.
I went through this in January. Cam Fowler has a lot of RD experience. But as a defender he is not a top defender.
The response here was mostly negative. He skates great and moves the puck well, but will bleed chances against.
That’s a surprising take. Was it based on Fowler’s raw numbers (ie – cutting him zero slack for playing on a terrible team)?
I don’t think he’s a fit for the Oilers because of salary and handedness, but I don’t think he’s a pretty good Dman.
Not sure LT’s use of the words “no use pussyfooting around” is a nod to the Fripp/Eno electronic masterpiece from 50 years ago, No Pussyfooting.
I can’t disagree with LT’s list. The only tweak I’d have would be dropping Hamblin, Pedersen , Dinesen, Gleason, Hoffenmeyer, Carrick, and Wanner from uncertain, to distant bells.
This roster is 80% set imo with even the open spots somewhat spoken for by established players. The fact that there are few question marks should give us confidence that we are a serious contender again.
Now what do we do about 2RD?
I thought about it, but injury could take several Oilers out of training camp and preseason. There’s some real age on RW and at C if Derek Ryan plays there. Adam Henrique is no spring chicken.
Yes, the shades of grey on the right side are concerning. And the PTOs don’t inspire more confidence than Stecher or Emberson. I prefer waiting for a few months, even to the deadline, and then go for the brass ring. Hopefully, we’ll be close to top of the West and can make a more informed decision.
And unlike Broberg, they have to play Emberson due to lack of quality options. So we will actually get a good test run.
I understand health is a reason that Kane is not a lock, but the way you wrote the sentence, it seems like you effectively lumped Kane is the same category as Ryan and Perry. Maybe you didn’t mean it that way. Seems like a healthy Kane is a lock and doesn’t need to win a job.
If Evander Kane is completely healthy, he could play on one of the top two lines. He’s uncertain only due to health.
Even if he’s 100% healthy he will need to earn top six minutes.
He won’t play as much, but Perry is a certainty too right?
Perry and Ryan could be waived for cap reasons to start the season.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them slide back and forth from the the A, similar to Gagner last season, however Perry less so.
I’d be quite surprised if Perry was sent down. It’s different for NHLers like Ryan and Gagner who don’t have the career rep and are marginal. NHL players also don’t sign to be demoted, it will interesting to see what happens with the D. Stecher and Brown could have gotten contracts elsewhere
I think we see Perry on LTIR before going to lovely Bakersfield.
That would be an awful scenario for cap structuring and ability to improve the team.
I think both of Stecher & Brown are looking to resurrect their careers in Edmonton. They will be battling to make the team as the 6th & 7th D. Plus, there’s no doubt Stech will be battling with Emberson for that slot beside Nurse. That trio of defensemen will be competing, only good things can happen from that. Perry is hanging on to win another cup, he will be highly motivated to prove he’s got something left in the tank.
I see it as Stecher and Brown are 6/7 D and Stecher usually works his way up. They want to be with a good org. Perry can play still, but he has to be put in the right spot. He was never fast, so they shouldn’t expect him to be skating all over the place. I think he’s still money in the O zone if his mates can think with him – sometimes last playoffs they weren’t. You could see the play he was going for and they didn’t pick up on it quick enough. Holloway was getting there
I always thought Perry could see some minutes in the top six. Probably more useful there than in the bottom six. Then they could spread the talent around more.