This is the 2016 Vollman Sledgehammer. You can see all of the top players on the team atop the line, with Adam Larsson occupying the “defensive zone start” quadrant pretty much solo. I believe that’s the player Edmonton is pursuing at this time, and also believe the club should be looking for someone in the “Sekera” spot as a partner for Darnell Nurse. The time for discussion of possible is done. Starting now, as the team begins to set lines and pairings, we can begin to discuss what is probable.
All summer, Josh Brown has been discussed as an “extra” who would land as the No. 7 defenceman on the Oilers roster. No one suggested they knew this to be a fact, but logic and reason dictated as much based on what we knew. Here, let’s look at the “Puck IQ Sledgehammer” for Arizona blue one year ago.
Puck IQ runs time on ice versus elites and DFF percentage, so we’re looking at a slightly different view in this graph than the one above. The qual comp in the Puck IQ chart shows that Josh Brown resides in the least trusted portion of the graph. Troy Stecher was given more leash, Travis Dermott far more. It leads us to conclude two things: The Oilers feel there is value from the 2023-24 Coyotes depth defensemen, and Josh Brown wasn’t effective against elites despite being trusted with just three minutes a night against them.
How do we marry those numbers against Brown’s possible usage this season? Well, the Oilers signed Brown to replace Vincent Desharnais. Let’s see what the Puck IQ Sledgehammer says about Desharnais’ season in 2023-24:
So, it appears the Oilers are willing to make a bet on the qual team floating Brown’s boat in the same way as last year’s team did with Desharnais. The relative number for Desharnais, combined with the shy minutes total, are a tell about what he brought to the group. I think the Arizona Sledgehammer above should encourage fans to think well of Dermott and Stecher, and to expect Brown to play third pair with PK work. I’m not certain he is the best choice, but we do know this group values a rugged edge and Brown brings all anyone can handle.
Prepare for many unhappy comments this fall on this blog, but I’m interested in how this turns out. I love a team with a rugged soul, but they have to be good at the hockey. When Brown is on the ice, will the Oilers be good at the hockey?
A busy Lowdown today, we get started at noon. Plenty of news from all of the media avails yesterday and some interesting roster discussions across the media landscape to drill down on. We’ll be present with Bagged Milk and our own unique takes on things, and will talk NFL Week 3 and CFL Week 16. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Matty asked what Lavoie has to do to make the team: Coach talked about assembling a good hockey team and everyone needing to do the little things well all the time. Young players need to manage mistakes and do the little things right all the time to get noticed. Lavoie is a strong hockey player and tough to take the puck from – that’s a great benefit. Playing physical, getting in on the forecheck with his speed. Last year there weren’t many injuries to get opportunities to watch him.
Coach looks forward to playing him up and down the lineup in camp.
Coach:
Jarventie expected back on the ice in a week or two. His repaired knee is fine but he has some issues with the other from over-compensating.
Yes, a key for camp is finding a partner for Nurse but primary is determining the “best players” to make the team, not focusing in on Nurse’s partner. Once the players are found out, then they will figure out the partners.
Nurse will sit out the first few exhibition games – maybe later in exhibition they will get some games
Ty was the guy today in the 2RD spot with Darnell. Not set on anything.
For Leon’s wingers, the first thing is players that can get the puck in Leon’s hands, getting in on the forecheck – also scoring goals. Skinner and Arvidsson are good NHL players and coach thinks they will compliment Leon alot – may play elsewhere.
On Savoie: “I though he had a really good day”. Smart player, can score goals, great shot, can compliment skilled players. Is he NHL ready. He has the skills. We’ll find out through camp and the games – he’ll get lots of opportunities.
Akey will not play exhibition games. He needs to see his surgeon and get the clearance before he will play.
Building up confidence in Podz – showing him the things he’s doing well, not just the bad. Exceptional young player with alot of promise – saw that in his rookie year, it hasn’t gone well since but we feel we can build him back up to where he was when he showed alot of promise.
Nurse wouldn’t talk about the injury but did say “I’m pretty confident” when asked if he was confident he’d be ready for the season
Jarventie will not participate in camp due to his knee. Per Gregor.
Blah!
It’s not his surgical knee thankfully, Gregor said probably from compensating for it
Yes, just came on to post that – straight from the coach’s mouth..
Expecting him to be ready for the ice in a week or two.
It appears from the comments so far today there is no need to wait let alone time to prepare. 😎
It is very hard to compare players across teams with most available metrics. Brown will undoubtedly put up way better numbers on a strong Oilers team. Although I am not in love with the player, I doubt he is much of downgrade from Des.
Brown’s goal share wasn’t much different. Des had better DFF% but I would wager that was because of Kulak
@DetroitRedWings
IT’S MO-TOWN, BABY 🙌
The #RedWings have signed Moritz Seider to a seven-year contract with an AAV of $8,550,000.
Seider’s contract term was apparently only 7 years to keep the AAV below the $8.7 million hit for Dylan Larkin.
Larkin 8.7
Seider 8.55
Raymond $8.075
DeBrincat $7.875
The rest of their projected core are all early stages of their ELC’s so as the expensive vets contracts expire, Yzerman will have a huge amount of cap flexibility.
We’re shaking in our boots!
Funny how it was just yesterday you were saying #1 D will cost over $10 million.
You really do have an “eye” for this stuff, huh.
So you’re saying Nurse’s contract gains value each D signing!
Also, I hope it all crumbles around Steve. There can only be one
More sledgehammer! More giant blue bubbles for the Nuge!
@AndyStrickland
NHL Owners will be meeting soon to approve the expansion opening. Leading candidates/ownership groups are believed to be Fertitta in Houston and Krause in Atlanta
Atlanta…good grief. tried that twice. and failed.
Toronto area could support a 2nd team
The Atlanta team will move to Canada in 4-5 years.
This might be the play. Double dip, charge a huge expansion fee and then a moderately huge relocation fee.
They should move the Flames back to Atlanta see how the Calgary folk take getting their franchise stolen in the middle of the night 43,years ago. The best part is the Flames don’t have to change their name since it belongs to Atlanta. I don’t think younger Oiler fans know how close we were to losing our franchise to Houston in the nineties.
Literally days.
Thank god for the investment group for getting the purchase from Peter Puck completed in 1998!
Why not Phoenix?
Another Oilers PTO has been signed… Jasper Weatherby. A leftie centre, not alot of offence, but a very large body. Interesting for sure.
edit … https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-sign-forward-jasper-weatherby-to-professional-tryout/
Kind of makes the story about the PTO being offered to Hoffman because they wanted to ‘keep the numbers the same’ with Berglund’s injury look even sillier than it sounded when it was first said.
The main takeaway for me at this point is that Josh Brown seems ahead of Stecher on the depth chart to start.
Maybe that contract was indeed attributed value and not “waiver claim protection””.
Maybe it’s because they realized they will constantly lose end of the roster players when the get the good-team/cup-finals salary bump as happened with Desharnais?
Savoie/Pederson/Lavoie could be quite the line in Bako.
Given that line today and Podz with Ryan and Perry, we see the climb Lavoie has to make this team.
I thought they talked about playing Savoie at center. Have they dropped that idea already?
They did indeed talk about Savoie at center in Bako and we are getting the sense that you are right and they may be pivoting.
Savoie played wing with O’Riley as his center for all three games in Penticton and lines up on the wing to Pederson today.
I would think it’s a tell where they play him if it’s at Centre he’ll need time to learn the craft if it’s on the Wing he’s good to go rather quickly. I do hope they give him some skill in the preseason and not saddle him with Brandon Sutter
Per DVD, Hyman’s wife gave birth to their third child yesterday. Congrats to the Hyman’s.
Akey skating with group 1 today is a good note. While he didn’t play games in Penticton, he was a full participant in the practices. Here is hoping we see him in games Sunday/Monday – won’t be long before he’s returned to Barrie (and Chaulk did say last weekend he is slated to start the season on time with Barrie).
I have to admit of all the teams in the last 30 odd years it was Bowman team the Blackhawks that I enjoyed watching. They could just as easily win 2-1 or 7-6 they weren’t big on shenanigans but they could dish it out as much as take it. Bowman had some unbelievable draft years and abundance of riches in a tight cap world. Bowman always fancied puck movers the Hawks were so good at possession and keeping that biscuit moving skillfully through 4 lines and 6 D. Peter had his Beantown look with Lucic-Maroon-Kassian then we had Holland using some of the Detroit model in building his team. If Bowman in the next few years brings similarities of the Blackhawks and how they could roll 4 lines that were a threat to score especially when the going gets tough count me all in.
I liked those Hawks teams as well, Duncan Keith my favourite player. In the first or second Cup his play was some of the best from a D I’ d ever seen. Byfuglien just wreaking havoc on the Dys
We can already see a change especially back end in thinking. Bowman understands having some orangutans on the team, but values ability with the puck first. The D is smaller and more puck able to me. I’m sure if he could get a bigger version he would, not a lot out there this summer
I think he also likes more gumption in his players than Holland did. After watching 190lb Keith for years be a savage and back down from nobody, I doubt he was a fan of the lack of it from a lot of guys in the playoffs regardless of size
Looking ahead to what a playoff roster could look like – it would be great to add the forward equivalent of Markus Niemelainen to the bottom of the lineup. Need someone who can drop nukes in about 1/2 the games based on the grind last playoff.
Upgrading Ryan is always a note on my list. Love the guy, but it is also the most straightforward move to make.
This is in addition to the likely D add of course.
Same here with respect for Ryan. I expect he will be replaced either internally or via trade before the trade deadline.
Ryan received the thank-you extra year from Holland. Ryan still has value for cover or a spot start here and there. If we have Ryan playing everyday it’s because of injuries.
Whole lotta hope on that second pairing. I’m expecting the PDO pony to buoy the Oil early and then some reality ala Vancouver’s run last year unless they make a move.
That’s 20+ minutes a night of ‘i dunno’ against the 2nd best comp.
Better than Ekholm being injured but I don’t like it
I think there’s legitimate reason to think that Emerson can grow into the 2RD role, or at the least provide about the same quality of coverage as Ceci. I still wonder, as many others have, if Nurse – Bouch and Ekholm – 2RD isn’t where we end up by years end barring any other additions.
Regardless, I have no doubt we’ll be shopping for a 2RD all year long until the trade deadline. If we can get someone bonafide in that spot, then I think we will have a very solid top 6 with Emerson on third pair and Stetcher as good 7D for coverage.
Staffer saying we are talking to Philly and there’s some traction on something. Which scares the crap out of me
Say no to Risto
Anyone but Risto. Could they be considering someone else?
They sure have plenty of RHD.
The poor guy hasn’t played for a good hockey team since leaving Finland.
Did he say that though?
I listened to most of the show last night and he has the opinion that the Oilers should target Riso but never said they are talking to Philly (mentioned that they talked at the draft given the trade they made).
I’m not trying to be overly picky here but I just don’t think he said they are in talks with Philly and I do think there is an important distinction.
I’ve heard a few media talking 40G for Skinner. I think he’d have to be on PP1 to do that
Skinner does have 5 seasons with 25 or more EV goals (including 21-22 and 22-23 in Buffalo).
And they are talking about playing both PP units.
Agree 40 would be a really tough ask without PP1 time though.
Those types of lofty projections that get thrown out about new McDavid/Draisaitl wingers frequently don’t pan out.
Are they?
Knob was asked that directly last week (can’t recall if it was with Stauff or Gregor) and he basically said they aren’t changing the PP make-up. He begrudgingly was live to getting the likes of Arvidsson and Skinner some PP touches but was fairly clear they aren’t planning a material change in PP1 vs. PP2 deployment.
With #29 passing to him, I can’t see why not.
And for the record he should play PP1 even if it is just a 30 second rotation in…but we know this is unlikely given they didn’t change things even when the unit went ice cold last year.
You underestimate the importance of Nugent-Hopkins to the Oilers powerplay. Nugent-Hopkins allows McDavid and Draisaitl to be positionless on the powerplay. Nuge fills the gaps seamlessly.
Nuge is also essential to the zone entry performance – a majority of entries have the puck flow to him and he makes a smart puck play to lock down full possession and set-up.
No doubt he’s so good with the back pass off the boards to Bouchard to settle down the PP on first entry. This backpass off the boards leads to so many opportunities for the best PP in history. Nuge needs to keep the opposition D honest and walk in more and shoot as the opposition overplay Leon and now Bouchard with his bomb. Nuge needs to hit the net instead of the perfect shot there’s no reason he can’t score 15 PP goals by just hitting the net. Mike Bossy always stated the key to scoring was hitting the net.
He was the problem last year when the unit went cold, is the only one that loses the puck with any regularity, and also the first to get low on gas. Whether people want to admit that or not is up to them.
Skinner for the last 30 seconds would be just fine.
To reduce TOI (wear and tear), I hope KK reduces PP1 during the regular season.
Say PP2 gets 1:30 per game. At his historic rate of 1.88 goals per 60 on the PP, Skinner would get approximately 4 goals over the 82-game season.
Over the last three years, Skinner has scored at a 0.30 goals per game pace. So say around 24 goals over a full season.
Now, his linemates (especially at center) will be better, however to go from a projected 28 goals all the way to 40 is as real stretch. I will take the over at 30 goals though!
Bonus Prediction: 40+ games though for the other Skinner!
Barring an in-season change in availability of a more major defensive piece (like Ekholm), Will Borgen is the in-season answer that I support for 2RD. He has aspects of both the Larsson (hard minutes exp. with great results) and the Sekera (capable puckmover with good zone exit numbers). He’s also affordable and in a good age range.
His name means the castle in Norwegian/Danish. He must be a good defenceman!
Resistuonce-a is fuotile-a, yuou vill be-a issimeeleted
“Grab a holda’ somethin’ hold on tight, Betty Lou’s gettin’ out tonite !!!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsS3Q4PXIIM
Accounts are that Nurse is on the ice this morning, paired with Emberson.
I guess Nurse will be a “partial participant” to start camp which is better than not on the ice at all.
Per DNB:
Oilers are split into two groups on Day 1 of camp. Of note, here are a couple of the defence pairings:
Nurse-Emberson
Kulak-Brown
Nurse is being held out of games to start as he manages an injury. Ekholm and Bouchard are in second group along with the middle-six forwards.
Per Gregor:
As expected Knoblauch has
RNH-McDavid-Hyman as a line in one group.
And J.Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson in the other.
He wants to give those a look but admitted it could change as they go.
Per Jack Michaels:
Back to work.
Lines look to be as suspected:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
OP: that is likely the current projected opening lineup.
Ryan & Perry must be place holders for the time being . While they sort out which young players are best suited to perform in the bottom six.
I don’t think they’re placeholders, I think they’re the incumbents. But yes, maybe if the young guys have an excellent camp they can beat one or both Ryan and Perry out. It’s great that we have those bars in place for them to jump – we’re a long way from the DoD.
Incumbents until replaced.
When you get to Game 7 of Stanley I think any prudent HC puts everybody who was there back in the same spot to start.
From there it is up to each player to hold that spot or lose it or climb but to start you get the spot you earned last season. Its just showing respect imo.
Perhaps as we get in to the season but probably not for the opening of the regular season.
Looking at if the team that got to game 7 of the SCF is better or worse of now.
Forwards: Better, much better!
Goalies: Slight up arrow due to Skinner having another year under his belt.
Defence: This is where it gets tricky – basically looking at replacing Ceci with Emberson and Des with Brown. Note: very small sample size for Emberson.
It appears that Emberson is close to Ceci and has room to grow whereas Ceci was only going to get worse.
Brown does not appear to even be the equivalent of Des – but we shall see.
Going to be a fun camp to watch.
For me Brown could easily be as good as Des with Kulak as his partner, or better. We will see
The team that got to game 7 had Broberg in the top 4.
The Oilers were 3 wins and 2 losses with Broberg in the top 4 against Florida.
The Oilers have no replacement for Broberg.
That said, all of the contenders in the West have challenges somewhere.
Vegas still scares me the most because of their defense.
The team that was one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, and the best vis-a-vis rush chances against, after the coaching change, did not have Broberg on it at all (last two games notwithstanding)
Would you care to elaborate on what makes you think they are looking for a Larsson over a Sekera?
The mention of Risto Ristolainen as an option by connected media. I don’t regard Ristolainen as a skilled puck mover.
Fair enough, and you may be right that that’s a tell. Thanks for the reply.
I’m so wary of any mention of Risto, I know he had a better year last year than his career average but he’s not exactly well regarded in the analytics world.
Plus that contract. $5.1 mill per year is about $3 mill too much for me. If people are grumpy about Nurse then look out if Risto lands here…
Trading for Risto would signal to me that analytics are back to being a secondary source of information rather than a prominent piece of the equation.
I don’t know why, but I’m nervous that Bowman is going to take us three steps back from where we were re: analytics and player evaluation.
The biggest red flag with Risto is his declining toi. He only played ~16 minutes a game last year. Danger, danger!
Ristolainen’s first name is Rasmus.
There will only ever be one Risto in this town.
That is correct also for some others it’s Coffey not Coffee lol
No doubt that Stauff uses his platform to get out message and information from the org.
Of course, he also has his own opinions and thoughts and, to me, I think that one is Stauff personally, and not via the org.
I could totally be wrong but the way he presents it seems similar to the long list of players he’s mentioned in the past that never came to town.
Maybe they’re looking for more of a defensive stalwart to pair with Nurse although Sekera was certainly well rounded . A right-handed Sekera would be fabulous.
Isn’t that what Emberson is?
Risto was very bad for quite a while with Buffalo. Though he was a famous name once so it makes sense that the oilers would be all over it.
Definitely nervous about this season. Top 6 should be great. Top pairing will be great. Rest of roster is pretty scary and not in a good way
On the D
Ekholm
Nurse
Kulak
is a very good LD setup.
on the right side.
Bouchard is a top 5, top 10 for sure RHD.
there is a hole on 2RD.
I think 3RD will be filled with the internal options.
I think Oilers brass are hoping someone can ( Stecher, Emberson) fill the 2RD. But the fact they are going to put Kane on IR and try to acrue cap space, they are probably looking to fill that spot by the deadline.
I like Janmark, Henrique and Brown in the bottom 6. I think Janmark probably wont give much offense, but the other 2 should be OK. All 3 good defensively and on the PK.
The 4th line is a question mark. Im hoping Pod, Lavoie and Pederson can knock it out of the park here.
A hole above tends to exacerbate holes below
also other than Janmark our bottom 6 is slow
Brown is also fast.
And it’s only Perry who is ‘slow’.
Henrique, Podkolzin and Ryan are all average rather than slow.
Brown is in the top 20 percent of the league in +20mph speed bursts. In fact he had more than Janmark.
Yup.
And, besides when McDavid is on the ice – or maybe because of him – the team will also look slower.
They have an above average 3rd line too.
Adam Henrique, even at this stage, as 3C is very good – he had 50 points again last year.
Connor Brown, as 3RW, should be very good presuming he picks up where he left off – as the player we expected last season. A year ago he was locked in to the top 6 and now he’s locked in to the bottom six.
There are certainly some question marks with the 4th line but I think the 3rd line could shine – in particular if a Podz or Lavoie or, eventually, a Jarventie, can push Janmark down to 4LW.
Darnell Nurse as a 2nd pairing d-man should be very good. Fully acknowledge recent struggles but also recognize the long history of playing 1D, with middling partners, against top comp and getting results, even with McDavid off the ice. Arrows are down but I expect recovery in his game.
Many of these players never played together. Would this be using some players Vollman’s from other teams?
What would Desharnais numbers look like if he played with Arizona last year?
What would Browns numbers look like if he played with the Oilers last year?
My guess is that Desharnais numbers would take a dip and Browns numbers would rise, how much though?
I think this is where the microstats that Sportloqiq etc have, come into play. Board battle wins, separating man from puck, deflecting or intercepting slot passes/shots, odd man rush against pass/shot blocks, on the defensive side are numbers Id like to see. I think both are limited offensively but passes to partner, outlet passes, stretch passes, etc would be interesting to see as well.
Agreed those things and moving the puck. If any D can make the right passes well and quick enough at least assists come. Another few things are being good at the offensive blue keeping pucks in, and getting shots through, putting the puck to the right areas. Doesn’t have to be fancy, just has to happen to help keep the puck at the right end of the ice and support the bottom 6 F better
Stauff said last night that he thinks Brown will start camp with Kulak (and the plan is to get Emberson with Nurse).
Didn’t mention Stecher.
Thinks Dermott is a long shot to make the team.
I think they plan on using Brown more due to PK.
I don’t mind smaller D with the right partner. Stecher Nurse if Nurse can be physical. So on paper I Kulak Brown to get some snarl into the D group and be harder to play against. Emerson would be ok but they would be a lighter pair, Kulak Stecher I could see having trouble with physical forwards and net front even if both are pretty solid players
Quinn and Makar are in smaller pairings but it’s Quinn and Makar
And Makar looked pretty average last season without MacKinnon on the ice. Just saying.
Makar played like 75% (a bit more if I remember correctly) of his 5 on 5 time with BOTH MacKinnon and Rantanen and did, as you note, quite poor without – under water without them.
Of note, Bouchard killed it without Ekholm and killed it without both Ekholm and McDavid – 60% metrics across the board for each (including expected goals) with actual goals trailing a bit but not negative.
Only slightly more though, like a percent or two more. Stecher wasn’t exactly trusted either.
I completely forgot about Taylor Beck. I had to go find the 2016 roster to find out who that giant Beck-bubble belonged to. Why’s he getting buried in zone starts? Why does Todd McLellan hate him? Oh. He played 3 games. It’s just a case of tiny sample sizes.
I may be one of those commenting unhappily on his usage. I can appreciate hard play (its one of my favorite parts about Ekholm’s game) but a guy that hits without moving the puck is infuriating to watch. We saw way too many of those types in the past 12 years to know it will go any differently.