Man Of The Hour

by Lowetide

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Reja

I think by mid season Jarventie should be up to speed and can carry some of the physicality we need in the dog days of winter.

AsiaOil

If Noah Philp looks ready and better than Ryan – he should play now. If you want a bigger 4th line RHC who can PK and kill penalties – you get him up to NHL speed during the regular season – not April. Ryan was sitting on the bench the latter half of the playoffs and is clearly just hanging on. He’s been great, like the player a lot, but his time is almost over.

OriginalPouzar

Don’t disagree and I do think Ryan could be at risk for opening night but they likely make the easy play and assign Philp, who remains waivers exampt.

nelson88

Nice to see Tulio with a couple of apples this evening. Liked the pick/player and disappointed he was included in the trade

1952barry

pre season means nothing

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Unless someone important gets hurt or sick.

OriginalPouzar

Fun interview with Drai on the NHL @The Rink pod from a few days ago.

OriginalPouzar

Coach confirms straight up that he’s planning to start the season with the Janmark/Henrique/Brown line – he really likes what they’ve done.

Personally, I would like to see Lavoie/Podz with a real opportunity to play 3LW with Henrique and the other being a real risk to Perry’s 4RW job but I’m not surprised at all by this.

I think Janmark is a perfect regular season 4LW/PK guy that can move up situationally and, of course, when the game changes in the playoffs.

I think a “more dynamic” type developing 2-way player like Podz and/or Lavoie should have the opportunity to play on Henrique’s wing – I think their styles could be good fits and a solid 2-way vet like Henrique could really help them but I’m not surprised with the way the coach wants to go and, at the end of the day, I’m typing on a computer and he’s making real decisions.

Reja

Janmark played like a bat out of hell can he physically keep up that pace on a everyday 3rd line. I agree Janmark is a dependable utility infielder but he’s not a everyday player. This line played balls to the wall and it looks like coach K.K rewards players for doing just that.

OriginalPouzar

The success of that 3rd line in the playoffs was based on a style that I don’t think is close to sustainable for a full regular season, even for young and energetic players with motor lets alone the likes of the 30-35 year olds.

jp

Janmark is a dependable utility infielder but he’s not a everyday player. 

Janmark’s not an every day player?

What the hell are you talking about?

Reja

I love Janny but I don’t think he’s a 82 game 3rd liner do you?

jp

I don’t think he’s a 82 game 3rd liner do you

You said “not an every day player” though. 

An 82 game 3rd liner is an entirely different question, and I’ll agree the answer to that question is somewhat debatable.

Scungilli Slushy

Spector on Gregor mentioned that gifting spots to young or unestablished players ahead of incumbents can breed discontent. Human nature. The third line was very good in the playoffs, so they stay together until something isn’t working or somebody takes a spot on that line. To me that sets the right tone and is good people management

Knobby rewards good play and fades when it’s not there pretty evenly. Players are not put in bad spots as they once were on this team, but they have to earn promotion. There are no bad players on the team, everyone has to play two ways, so if a more offensive guy like Ralph has to start on the 4th line, he should play his butt off, and should also be able to make hay if he’s good enough to promote. If he sticks it will be as a shooting power forward, so do that wherever you end up. Same for all, do your thing if you get to play. This is the way

Reja

I do think Skinner finds a spot with Connor where as Ardvisson could also slide down to the 3rd line. I have visions of Podkolzin-Lavoie or should I dare say Savoie ending up as the trigger man for Leon by mid season.

defmn

Yup, I’ve made this same point several times since TC started.

You don’t lose your spot from season to season just like you don’t lose your spot when you come back from injury.

You get to start at the same place and only if you can’t hold it does change come. As you say doing it differently breeds discontent.

OriginalPouzar

Janmark wouldn’t be losing his spot – he was a 4th liner most of last season, averaging under 10 minutes per game at 5 on 5, 12th among forward.

defmn

Irrelevant. What matters is where he was playing at the end of the season. Henrique talked about how the chance to play with Janmark and Brown played into all of their decisions to sign back here as UFA’s.

It would be very bad management to not let them start as a line. If it doesn’t work everybody on the team will see it and changes will be made.

OriginalPouzar

I understand your point but don’t agree that its irrelevant.

That was last year’s team, this is this year’s team – both Bowman and Knob, and even Leon, have talked about this year’s team finding their identity.

Lets also not discount the fact that the 3rd line trio played 52 minutes in the playoffs and actually got caved with some metrics below 40% and an expected goals of 45% – and that is playing an all out style, pressing on every puck, pressuring up ice, etc. – a style that I don’t think is sustainable for a long regular season.

In any event, my position is minority, I acknowledge that. I understand keeping the line together to start, I personally think that are other set-ups with the potential for more optimal results.

OriginalPouzar

I wouldn’t suggest at all the a spot is “gifted” but I do believe that a developing young player can earn the opportunity to move past an incumbent in on the depth chart.

Janmark was 12th among Oilers forwards at 5 on 5 TOI/G last season, playing under 10 minutes per game – he was mainly a fourth liner.

I understand what Janny did with Henrique and Brown for, what, 2 rounds of the playoffs, and understand the coach wanting to start with that line but I don’t think Janny playing on the 4th line is going to hurt his feelings. Lets not forget his post-season interview where he talked about his 12 points and not expecting many calls.

Holloway played more per game last season than Janmark – I don’t think a potentially more impactful/dynamic player taking some 3rd line reps is going to rock the boat – of course, if he earned it.

I understand its not happening and i understand why as well, even if I disagree from where i sit and type.

Reja

Wouldn’t that be something if Janmark has a career year playing with a hungry healthy Brown and a real fine pro in Henrique. If Brown and Janmark continue to have rhythm it would sure be a huge bonus. We finally have a penalty crew that’s a threat to score dagger goals against the opposition I truly believe Janmark has found his niche, a happy worker is a productive worker.

Scungilli Slushy

The key word being earn. I think that these coaches reward who is doing what is asked and pressing to score. Too bad Ralph can’t skate better

Holland sure liked the milquetoast types. Lavoie isn’t by nature a power forward, and that hurts him. His drafting almost reminds me of DoD years – lots of small guys and large guys without proper NHL boots

jp

Holland sure liked the milquetoast types. Lavoie isn’t by nature a power forward, and that hurts him.

Holland didn’t draft Lavoie (nor did he really play this milquetoast player in the NHL).

daniel

Why are we talking about Lavoie playing the left side? No way they let that happen – especially for a rookie with questionable defensive abilities. His competition is Brown

Pretty certain these preseason games are Lavoie’s last in an Oilers jersey.
He could go all Perlini and Rattie but won’t dent the lineup for all the obvious reasons. Do we really need to state them?

Last edited 1 month ago by daniel
OriginalPouzar

Meh – he’s played a ton of the left side as a pro and he played left wing last night with Drai and Perry for 6 minutes.

daniel

Sure, in preseason as part of a trade audition with Draisaitl who could feed him some
ofnthe sweetest passes in history on the off wing. It’s a beautiful thing no doubt.

Last edited 1 month ago by daniel
OriginalPouzar

Coach expressly talks about not needing guys for the PP – looking for guys that PK (as we lost some guys), speed and being tenacious.

Rishaug mentions Podz and Knob was all over that idea. He said he’s a guy that can play the PP but maybe later in the year for that as they get more familiar. We need guys that can kill and hopefully that is something that he can do. Good hockey players that are focused and bought in to doing the job – they can PK. He’s going to get every opportunity.

Listening to the above and Mike Hoffman is clearly trying out for other hockey teams.

OriginalPouzar

Lines and pairings from the main group are the exact same as earlier in camp and the likely opening lineup if healthy.

4th line is Podz/Ryan/Perry

3rd pairing is Kulak/Brown (Dermott/Stecher together).

OriginalPouzar

DNB reporting that coach has advised that Lavoie will be held out for a few days with a lower body injury – he left practice today. Was scheduled to play in Winnipeg.

cowboy bill

Bad luck.

Reja

Did Staios or Hughes see enough of Lavoie to pluck him off waivers and try him on a skill line or PP-2. I think they did.

OriginalPouzar

Coach says he expects him back skating on Friday.

daniel

A lower body injury? Sounds like bubble wrap trade stuff to me.

Last edited 1 month ago by daniel
daniel

Stauffer said on Oilers Now “oh, it’s probably a core injury.” Bubble wrap. Draisaitl was successful in converting prospect to pick.

OriginalPouzar

From Tony B (this, for me, says that Derek Ryan remains in poll position):

First on-ice group today is composed of players primarily who spent their time in the AHL/Junior last season.

Mike Hoffman — who scored last night in Calgary — is also on the ice with this group.

Other notables: Noah Philp, James Hamblin, Matt Savoie. #Oilers

defmn

As expected with Ryan, I would think. Nobody from last year’s team is going to lose their job off of a couple of exhibition games. That said Philps has looked pretty good to me so far.

I’ll bet he at least has Ryan looking over his shoulder.

Last edited 1 month ago by defmn
Elgin R

Philp, if I am not mistaken, does not have to clear waivers. Send him down and see how long it takes him to get back to where he was and then improve on that performance.

There is a $125k difference between the two in salary. So calling up Philp a few times during the year to give Ryan some days off should help Ryan, Philp and the cap accrual.

Reja

Yes this is what needs to happen start rotating players get some fresh players to do the lifting during the dog day days of winter. I’m glad Bowman didn’t get flush with the cap immediately placing Kane on LTIR then running out and spending the money like a drucken sailor on leave in Singapore.

Last edited 1 month ago by Reja
cowboy bill

Ryan has been playing on the RW more often than not. Starting Philp at 4c and having Ryan on his RW would make sense. Perry could sub in as well, Janmark on his LW wouldn’t hurt either. Let Podz, or Lavoie play with Henrique & Brown. There you have your bottom six IMO. Although having Pery in the lineup is a head scratcher.

Last edited 1 month ago by cowboy bill
OriginalPouzar

There is no cap space for both Philp and Ryan on the roster, well, unless they are removing Perry or Podz or other (or wanting to crater their daily accrual down to a nominal amount);

cowboy bill

What happens when Kane is on IR?
Don’t they need another forward to replace him on the roster. They also have $945,833 cap space available.
Philp makes the minimum $775,000.
I would think they’d go with a 22 man roster,13 forwards, 7 defensemen & 2 goaltenders.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, they likely run with 13F, including Kane, and leave the $950K of cap space to accrue until an injury forces a call-up.

OriginalPouzar

That would work if they send Ryan down when calling up Philp, not just adding Philp to the roster.

To counter your point re: waivers, easier to sneak Ryan though in the first week of October among the masses than in early November when other teams have injuries and could maybe use a Derek Ryan, right?

defmn

The #Oilers have returned goaltender Nathaniel Day & forward Connor Clattenburg to the
@FlintFirebirds
, forward William Nicholl to the
@LondonKnights
& forward Dalyn Wakely to the
@OHLBattalion
. Best of luck this season, fellas!

Tarkus

Wakely’s return to North Bay for his overage season brings the number of NAmateurs this season to a baker’s dozen.

kinger_OIL

This is what I’ve “learned” about the training camps/pre-season for every professional sport always, forever:

— When fans team loses : “it’s just spring training, pre-season it doesn’t matter”

— When fan team wins: “team looks awesome ready to make an impact once the regular season starts”

— When fan favorite players don’t do well “it’s just training camp, no issues here, they will be ready once the season starts”

— When fan favourite players play well “he’s shown up on best shape of his life and looks primed for a massive season”

— There’s always a few prospects that surprise and extrapolations are made that rarely happen

— All good teams already know exactly who is making their team for day 1, except if injuries during camp.

— All teams tell media and fans that there is lots of competition for spots.

— There is absolutely no correlation, none, between the results when the games don’t t matter and how teams do in the regular season.

— I like following the off-season to see who gets signed traded fired etc. but pre-season just not at all for me (except going to spring training in baseball in Florida where the access to players is so fun).

GOILERS!!!

Last edited 1 month ago by kinger_OIL
Bar_Qu

Dennis King pointed out (rightly in my opinion) that Pickard struggled last night as he did against good teams last year. I do not think he should be counted on as a solid back up for Skinner. Having said that, Rodrique needs to light things up for me to start having faith in him too.
The Oilers can’t afford to have sub standard D and goaltending to start this year.

leadfarmer

I definitely would have preferred Lankinen

The Great One

Amazon already upping the anti.

Sports on Prime Canada

Debuting Oct. 10: Your one-stop whip-around covering all things NHL.

Every Thursday, we’re going Coast to Coast to bring you live look-ins, highlights & analysis from every NHL game happening that night.

https://x.com/sportsonprimeca/status/1838297432175612337?s=61

daniel

Amazon is able to convince investors to stick with them through years of massive losses. It’s part of their model (I wish that worked with my banker).

It won’t take them long to own as much of whatever they want to up here for hockey. Bell’s losses are losses. Rogers’ losses are losses. Amazon’s losses are future profits. It’s like US fiat currency.

Munny 2.0

There are no future profits to fiat currencies. Only accelerating losses from beginning to the inevitable end. Like hockey prospects though, this development doesn’t necessarily occur in a straight line.

defmn

Hehe. You beat me to it.

daniel

I said US fiat. Not fiat simple.

Which has had success as the petrodollar since 1971 precisely because of the size of the federal debt. Yes its power is fading. The losses were profit (over simplification). You can read Volcker and others on that. The debt was purposeful. Which is something that Ron Paul has never managed to understand. It causes inflation. It damages real wealth. But too big to fail is a thing in the global markets, and when there’s a military industrial complex behind it, the fiat remains compelling.

And so it is with Amazon. It’s one of the most power corporations in the world. It doesn’t make a profit. Its stock holds value.

These things work until they don’t. But they’re working a lot longer than end the Fed and Satochi figured.

daniel

Nice. The revenues are enormous. Always looking to expand. No profits. Polar opposite of Apple it seems. Reads as too big to fail to me.

Last edited 1 month ago by daniel
Elgin R

Lavoie put himself in good positions, played well but did not cash. Shooting at the crest on the goalies’ jersey is not a recipe for success in the NHL. If he wants to make the NHL he needs to score in THIS preseason – especially getting the push to 29’s line.

Hoping for him but he is looking more and more like a tweener / career AHL player.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Anton Lander looked godly in the preseason.

I’ll reserve judgement until I see Lavoie play in the regular season.

JJS

I thought he scored the other night

OriginalPouzar

One notable play from last night was McDavid exploding in to the slot and ripping a shot through the d-man and in the net.

That was something that McDavid seemed to add to his game on his 64 goal season and he scored goals like that consistently.

To my eye, that essentially disappeared last season and it was rare to see him shoot in that position. I think most of us presumed that was injury related and I hope we see a lot more of that this year.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Connor said somewhere that he trained too hard last off season, that probably had something to do with it.

OriginalPouzar

This is true but I also think he was dealing with a “shooting restricting injury” for most of the season.

Traveller

Something was definitely off with his shooting. Per NHL edge, his average shot attempt speed from 22/23 was 36 mph with 91 attempts over 80 mph. In 23/24, these dropped to 29.3 mph and 72 respectively. This is based on 500ish attempts each season. McDavid also played 6 less games.

His accuracy was off too dropping from 18% to 12% shooting. At 5 on 5 his actual shot attempts were the same from 22/23 to 23/24, but he had more blocked or just missed the net more often. However, the team actually scored at a much higher rate and more often at 5 on 5 as defenders focussing on McDavid’s shooting led to a career year for Hyman.

His shooting was way down on the PP though with the rate of Corsi, Fenwick and actual shots down by a lot with a higher percent blocked or missed as well. The decline in attempts is partially explained by Bouchard full time all year on the PP shooting more often than Barrie ever did. Overall the rate of success on the PP (G/60) with the big unit on was down from an unreal 16.2 to a still impressive 13.0.

Reja

Connor definitely had a ongoing injury all year that hampered his shot and stick handling. Your eyeballs don’t lie they rushed him back for the ching-ching heritage classic and I believe he played with it all year.

OriginalPouzar

I only watched a handful of shifts of the game on the road (when the home game was on break) but Josh Brown has a bad giveaway for a goal against and, the accounts are that he struggled all night. I saw him good the night before so this is a disappointing arrow. The accounts are that Stecher struggled as well – double disappointing.

Its September 24 and it was a split squad game – remind myself of that.

By eye, Philp has looked better than Ryan for that 4C spot but, at the same time, it was one game for Ryan and, of course, remind myself that veterans are simply doing what they need to do to get ready – Ryan’s performance in his one game is no indicative of, well, anything.

Noah Philp is coming though.

YYCOil

I just watched the Ice District game. From the non-NHL players Lavoie, Philp and Hoefenmayer in that order were additive to the cause and Should hang around for more games and training with KK,

Podkilzin and Petrov finished checks but did not contribute in any meaningful way.

cowboy bill

Lavoie had seven shots, no goals playing with Leon Draisaitl. What does that tell you?

Rugbypig

Means 39 to 23 sometimes goalies steal a game

CruJones

Hit up the game in Calgary with the kids last night. Tickets listed for $3 online, still worked out to $50 for 4. Go figure.

Can’t say there was a lot to take from the game other than O’Reilly continues to look good and Flames fans continue to be annoying.

winchester

I stated last night. The best choice for that last defenceman position was playing for the Flames. Barrie looked quick, steady, effortless with the puck.

I also liked Gleason.

CruJones

Still time for Barrie to pull a Versteeg on the Flames and come north.

Bar_Qu

The way the Fan960 was talking in Calgary is that there isn’t really a spot for him in Calgary either. He’s auditioning for somewhere else.
I am still against the Oil signing him though.

Oddspell

I didn’t watch the game, but reading this comment gave me the “aha!” moment on why I’m a bit anxious about this new era of Oilers.

In the preceding era, Holland rarely tried to be too cute with his mission critical solutions; gambling that he knew better than the room. He was conservative with his acquisitions and departures, and any time he made a move I feel like there was an easy (not necessarily correct) argument for it given the knowledge at the time. The exception to this might be the 2021 draft.

In comparison, I followed a lot of the Dubas Leafs and the narrative always felt like “if our theories are right, we’ll be the best team in the league.” Using critical problems to beta test innovative thinking. I think about the carousel of cast-off goalies, or their acquisition of Jared Mccann during the Seattle expansion in order to give cover to Kerfoot, when they could have protected both and exposed Holl. I call the phenomenon “getting-too-cute-itis”.

Trading our 2RD before camp (in an already turbulent off-season) for an analytics gem still shrouded in the dense muck of small sample size strikes me as pretty classic “getting-too-cute-itis”, especially when there were vets without even a PTO.

Pretendergast

Agreed. I call it ‘replacing in the aggregate’. That’s not how it works in hockey.

defmn

What would you have done to become cap compliant?

Oddspell

I’m not sure. Too much information I’m not privy to, and debating specific counterfactuals is not a conversation I find interesting any more.

It’s the philosophy of management that worries me. Surely there is a cap compliant 2024-25 Oilers that has an upgraded F group and a D group that’s at least as good as it was on July 5th? and didn’t deplete the cupboards to get it… no?

I liked signing Skinner and I liked trading Ceci for a younger, higher potential player… but in 3 months time, is there a chance we’re looking at our team’s weaknesses and thinking “I would trade Jeff Skinner to get a Cody Ceci type”?

To me it seems more possible than I’m comfortable with, and it would be a real shame.

jp

but in 3 months time, is there a chance we’re looking at our team’s weaknesses and thinking “I would trade Jeff Skinner to get a Cody Ceci type”

I think there is that chance.

But even then I think in the worst case you can most likely re-acquire the Cody Ceci at the deadline for minimal cost.

Everyone hopes that Emberson is an improvement, or that someone better than Ceci can be acquired at the deadline, but the prior status quo (the actual Cody Ceci) will almost certainly be available as a fall-back if all else fails.

Reja

Holland had 5 years he couldn’t get it done. If not for the immediate coaching change whose Jackson fingerprints were all over we are having a different conversation. The team looked liked it was ready to implode with the Cup or Bust unnecessary pressure placed on them by Holland.

Scungilli Slushy

Ceci was going anyway I think. They removed vanilla players that had been awful in the playoffs especially by GF% two playoffs running. They needed cap, and the only reason he was even playing last playoffs was Stecher was hurt and Des worse as it went, I don’t see him as a good 2RD on a team like the Oilers anymore

Holland couldn’t fill out a proper top 6. They went and got 2 good 5v5 wingers one of who plays with some jam, that can shoot the puck. The team has lacked enough shooters for a while. Leon has underwhelmed 5v5 for a while, needed help, he got it finally. To me every move makes sense and I see the team as better overall. All solid analytics moves

Losing the RFAs was bad, but that goes back to before this summer, and having to use them in the playoffs showcased them. From what I’ve read their agents knew offer sheets were probably coming. Really they were already gone post playoffs because matching would be poor cap management

JJS

The challenge with new coaches/GM every few years is they want to see the prospects in action and therefore may not pull the final roster together until the 11th hour in pre-season. It crushed us last year.

Add to that the hole on RD and questions for the 4th line.

Wonder how Knob/Bowman will handle it as the entire City is desirous of a quick start this season.

OriginalPouzar

At the end of the day, the roster and the lines are known.

We know Emberson is going to be Nurse’s parter and 2RD to start.

We know the fourth lines is going to be Podz/Ryan/Perry to start.

There is no room for a 13th forward as that cap is allocated to Kane.

Really, the only “battle” is between J. Brown and Stecher for 3RD.

As much as Kemp should be competing with Brown, as much as Lavoie should be competing with Perry, as much as Philp/Hamblin should be competing with Ryan, I don’t think there are any open spots unless injuries occur.

Last edited 1 month ago by OriginalPouzar
jp

Gheez it sounds like you’re really down about the practice groups remaining the same today after 1-2 games of hockey (depending on the player).

1) I do think Lavoie, Philp, Savoie and maybe even Kemp can make the Edmonton Oilers if they legitimately outplay veterans through the next 5 games.

2) Injuries will happen. That’s usually how young players get their chance. Even if it isn’t before opening night their play in TC is setting the order of replacements for when a veteran falters or is injured.

OriginalPouzar

Not down about anything, just stating what i feel/think is reality.

I don’t think any of those players listed have a real shot of making the Oilers except for maybe Philp over Ryan but I also doubt that is reasonably realistic. I don’t think Lavoie can replace Perry on the roster even if he continues to show better, not out of camp.

The only real avenue I see, aside from injury prior to the season, is if they do determine they want to keep a 14th forward (in addition to Kane) and take their daily accrual down to a nominal amount.

Of course, I never said these games don’t mean anything for the prospects, I just think the opening roster is all but set subject to injury – their play matters for in-season call-ups, never stated otherwise.

jp

Yeah, I guess you went pretty abruptly from posting for an extended period how those players should get a real chance to now that they have no real chance.

We can agree that their chances of making the Oilers are and were slim, but I don’t think anything the coaching staff has done in the last 2-3 days ought to have changed that assessment.

Which is to say, something pretty significant would have had to happen to expect (for instance) Ryan with the AHL group today and Philp with the NHLers. I don’t think we should read really anything at all into that switch not happening at this stage.

OriginalPouzar

Yeah, I guess you went pretty abruptly from posting for an extended period how those players should get a real chance to now that they have no real chance.

I still believe these players should get a real chance but I don’t think they practically have a chance of replacing the incumbents for opening roster.

Chris!

What a bizarre signing Josh Brown was.

Bar_Qu

Weird then, even weirder after watching him struggle against AHL laden squads.

Reja

It’s like Jackson thought it was Connor Brown agent that they agreed on a million per year for 3 long years.