Lots of chatter yesterday about preseason not being important, but the depth chart for the season is seeing some subtle changes. Noah Philp has shown well early, and that may not mean a roster spot (he is not a waiver worry) he could hasten down the wind and inspire an earlier recall. Josh Brown appears to be the No. 3 RH defenceman on the coaching staff’s depth chart, but the on-ice performance is allowing a large group of contenders a sliver of hope.
I keep hearing ‘the roster is set’ and opening night looks certain. When it comes to the season ahead, are you sure? I don’t believe you should be certain about this roster at the fringes.
LINES AND PAIRINGS
The club spent yesterday with the lineup one could expect to see opening night. Connor McDavid was in the middle on the top line, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman on the wings. Those three men scored 63 percent of the five-on-five goals when they were on the ice together last year. I think a coaching staff would need a good reason to check down from that trio. Modern hockey is miles away from the NHL I grew up with, when lines stayed together for years. However, I do think McDavid-Hyman will last the entire season.
The second line features Leon Draisaitl and two new substantial wingers in Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. This group should fill the net this season. I’ve read here and there that the hope is Draisaitl can outscore five-on-five without McDavid, like it was a problem a year ago. For the record, No. 29 without the captain delivered 58 percent of the five-on-five goals. What you might look for is an increase in goals-60 at five-on-five. Last year, McDavid w/o Leon was 4.07 goals-60 and Draisaitl without 97 was 2.89 goals-60. Perhaps that gap can close. By the way, McDavid-Draisaitl together five-on-five scored 4.89 goals-60 and owned 64 percent of the goals. Incredible. We are seeing peak NHL with these two men.
Kris Knoblauch has stated that he’ll run with the playoff third line of Mattias Janmark-Adam Henrique-Connor Brown. You can’t blame the coaching staff for doing it, that trio was golden after what seemed like 20 years of randos on the No. 3 unit. Many is the time when I watched an Oilers game and thought about Ethan Moreau-Todd Marchant-Mike Grier and their accomplishments. In just under one hour during last year’s playoffs, the line scored 67 percent of the goals (2-1) but had a 44 percent expected goal share. All three men can PK capably, so that’s an added benefit.
The fourth line opening night looks like Vasily Podkolzin-Derek Ryan-Corey Perry but results matter and I do believe the coaching staff is building a Ryan and Perry succession plan. When people say “training camp doesn’t matter” I think this is the area where I disagree. At center, we have Ryan (who can move to the wing) followed by Lane Pederson (good speed, skill, also RH), Noah Philp (something close to a perfect fit for the No. 4 C role and displaying less rust than anticipated) and James Hamblin (LH, doesn’t have a lot of offense but owns great utility). We can ignore what is happening in front of us, or we can acknowledge that the play here is moving Ryan to the wing (he can still PK as a center), moving Perry to the pressbox (I don’t think he gets many regular season games with Ryan as his center) and then elevating one of Pederson, Philp or Hamblin. The games these men play over the next several days may put the depth chart in the order we will see them over this season. That’s important and is not settled. So, training camp does in fact matter.
On defense, the top pairing is among the best in the NHL. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are both healthy from all reports, and I can see this duo playing half of the games some nights if the wheels fall off the second and third pairing. During the playoffs, the duo owned 65 percent of the five-on-five goals. They were 4-5 goals without 97, but the expected goals percentage (55) matched the eye test.
Darnell Nurse and Ty Emberson look to be the second pairing. Nurse hasn’t played yet, recovering from a playoff injury, and Emberson lacks experience and hasn’t played one minute with Nurse. It isn’t a story because the organization keeps saying it isn’t a story, but this is a team expected to win Stanley. The second pair is going to be a big story either way. If they’re successful, that’s going to be a helluva feat. If they are not, the heat will be on right away. If the Oilers lose games early due to defensive issues, there is no obvious fix for a second pair that struggles.
Brett Kulak and Josh Brown appear to be the third pairing and we’ll see. Brown didn’t play well in the first game of the preseason, but that’s a small sample size. The larger sample, from a year ago, is also not encouraging. I suspect Troy Stecher is the safety net (here and for the second pair) but his impact has been shy this camp due to injury recovery.
Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp and Ben Gleason are also in photo. Cam Dineen doesn’t get much love but he looked good when I saw him. Max Wanner is impressive but is heading for Bakersfield soon. My question: If this team gets desperate, and Wanner continues to be a quality Condor, would a recall before Christmas be possible? My suspicion is no, but that means Stan Bowman makes a trade and Rasmus Ristolainen is the only name I’ve heard. Bad idea.
I wrote about Stuart Skinner at The Athletic today, I think he’s an ideal Oilers goaltender. He’s from here, knows the lore, has a calm demeanor and has saved the club for two regular seasons running. He has also played a lot of playoff hockey, been a stand-up guy when things didn’t go well, and has solved the stopper issue to the point where fan anxiety is at a low ebb this fall. The only downbeat I’ve read is about Calvin Pickard, but he was rock solid in big moments one year ago.
Training camp matters. You can look at the waiver eligibles and assume they will make the club, but it’s an uneasy roster with Brown, Perry and Ryan in everyday roles. Change will come.
The Lowdown hits the airwaves at noon today, on Sports 1440. We’ll have Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, we’ll discuss the Elks decision to fade Tre Ford in the starter’s role, and talk about an amazing triple play on the left coast last night. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Can Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner deliver a complete season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5791053/2024/09/25/oilers-goalie-stuart-skinner-stats-2024/
Doughty may be injured. Left the game against Vegas with a leg injury.
This should be a telling game. When you are outmatched, who workers harder to get the puck back? Who can still battle on the boards and win their one on ones?
Who keeps up with the speed? Who floats?
If you don’t have the puck, you should have 10 hits in the game.
This isnt a game about showing offense, its a game to show off determination and defensive awareness. Maybe show a flash of offensive turning something out of nothing.
With this in mind, who looks like they can contribute in NHL?
Noah idea
This is NOT verified info (he indcates a source) and I am skeptical:
Klima’s Lid
@thackattack41
·
11h
This season, expect Harnaryan Singh to do more regional NHL broadcasts leaving @EdmontonJack
available to do national Oilers broadcasts (Saturday night). OEG also wants Jack doing more Oiler playoff games and it sounds like it will happen.
That, if true, would be a blessing.
Id love Jack over Sing
Don’t make Louie stand in the dam isle the whole game. How does that even make sense??
That means Cam Moon doing more radio – works for me.
Delia with his “worst of Mike Smith” giveaway for a Jet shortie.
Caggiula has had multiple opportunities from the slot, but no finish. Philp with one as well. They’ve done a nice job of finding the soft spots but no one is finding the ocean.
Do you have eyes on the game? Or just radio?
Watching the game.
Just an atrocious goal given up by Delia for the 5-0 – just gross.
Yup. Pretty weak.
Hamblin had a chance to clear and couldn’t get the puck out just before that.
O’Reillys been overwhelmed, Understandable.
Kulak has been the best player imo. Savoie has made some high skill plays but his lineys are weak.
Stu getting left out to dry. Swimming but he’s under fire.
Emberson has looked small, slow, and ineffective. Im a doubter until im not.
Better have a sit down with Tyson Barrie
I don’t think we were watching the same game
Do tell
Emberson looked physical and effective to me, other than his bad pinch, I thought he played a strong games, despite the failings of others.
Case in point, FWIW, Kulak ended up -3, Emberson -1.
Plus minus still eh.
FWIW, but still it illustrates something to look at closer, often it is a superficial sign of a potential issue.
In this case it is, mediocre goaltending and below-NHL team defense.
4-0 Jets.
I’m not able to watch the game, but we’re at the 2nd intermission… 13 shots on goal (Jets 27 sog)… W.T.F.?
Strength of lineups. First period actually was pretty good considering the imbalance. In the second the superior line up asserted themselves.
SKinner beat clean by a Miller snap shot on the PP from the VERY high slot (i.e not far from blue line) – Skinner had been quite good prior.
Yeah that was a stinker on the glove side.
Ryan is pretty much done and didn’t even play much in the latter part of the playoffs. The 2nd year of his contract was a gift for service but doesn’t include any guarantees of NHL time. If Philp is doing well then play him and get the bumps out of the way before the playoffs.
As opposed to LT – I think Risto is an option as his play seemed to spike last year. Buy low on a rising asset (if indeed he is a rising asset – TBD). I want to go into the playoffs like this with Kane on LTIR just prior to the deadline (max cap accrued) until season’s end:
Kane McD Hyman
Skinner Drai Arvi
RNH Rico Brown
Jani Philp Kostin/Perry
Ek Bouch
Nurse Risto
Kulak Emberson
Skinner Pickard
I’d need to see some kind of evidence Ristolainen can handle the job moreso than feelings.
He’s got to be one of the worst famous defensemen in the league.
Take a look at his numbers from last year – intriguing improvement – the evidence is there (as I’e pointed out a number of time) if you choose to do a small bit of work. We can discuss after.
Why add a questionable player and pair him with a partner who needs more help?
Holding out hope Pionk tells Winnipeg he isn’t coming back.
I think Risto’s cap hit makes him a non-starter. Would Philly retain? Maybe if we give them a good prospect, but we don’t have too many of those. Who wants to trade O’Reilly for Risto ata 50% retained at the trade deadline? Would that even get it done? I doubt it.
Emberson with a goal saving block on a PK – Schifele had an open net.
.
Emberson (who had looked good), caught pinching up ice, a couple quick passes and Kyle Connor is in all alone with full speed, 2-0.
I realize this is preseason and all that but every game I have watched parts of seem to be the same. Oilers running around chasing opposing players and losing puck battles with very little physical engagement.
D is not good, smart or strong enough to stop the attack. Any offence we have (not really playing this game) is negated and their shifts spent chasing or waiting.
At the game here in Winnipeg and I cannot convey how impressed I am with Philp
.
Back deep in his own end.
Same goes with O’Reilly some smart plays in his own end.
Im in an Ebs jersey waving. Can you see me?
Savoie with a very nice defensive play after a terrible defensive zone cross-ice pass by Noel H. – saved a high danger chance – then Savoie on his horse through he neutral zone, sets up Philp for a quick strike chance.
Huge point blank save by Skinner on Vilardi!
Philp winning draws on the PP, winning puck battles against Pionk and setting up Caggiula for TWO high danger chances that Drake can’t finish.
Philp!!!!!
Emberson continues where he left off last game against WIN – solid defensive zone plays.
Pre-Game Cuts:
Released from PTO and will report to Bakersfield:
Loaned to Bakersfield:
Disappointing that Petrov did nothing through prospects camp and main camp to make a case to stay longer. Hope he gets his game going early in the AHL season.
Sometimes guys have a good draft+1 and then fade indefinitely. Greg Chase (another late-rounder) had a nice draft+1. Then never scored more than 14 points in the AHL. Anybody remember him anymore?
Granted, Petrov did have two good years post-draft. But his AHL career high remains at 14 points. He’s probably only got one year left to change that.
Lineup:
Janmark/O’Riley/Brown
Hoffman/Hamblin/Ryan
Caggiula/Philp/Savoie
DeJong/Pederson/Griffith
Kulak/Emberson
Dineen/Wanner
Hoefenmayer/Carrick
Skinner
Delia
Goalies to split.
What has Stu done to Knoblauch to deserve this?
Goalies split early games, every single preseason.
Weak Stanley Cup winning goal against…..
We needed a couple of goals from the grunts only got 1 from Janmark.
Ouch! Three months later, being reminded of that still hurts….
His sideburns are a bit long
From Gregor at ON who adds he is not certain of the lines but this is the roster for tonight’s game in Winnipeg. Skinner to play at least the first half of the game.
Savoie – Pederson – Arvidsson
Janmark – O’Reilly – Brown
Hoffman – Philp – Griffith
Caggiula – Hamblin – Ryan
de Jong
Kulak – Emberson
Dineen – Wanner
Hoefenmeyer – Carrick
Skinner
Delia
The Oilers owe it to De Jong to play him with someone named De Restless.
Or with
Andy Restless 😳😳
That’s a beaut! Ranks right up there with the preseason when we had Miro Satan and David Pope on a line….
I love the O’Reilly push, Jackson identified this player went after him and now they are throwing him a bone before a jacked up kid heads back to London to tear it up under Mr. Hunter guidance.
Folks, how confident are we in the proposed Nurse Emberson pairing?
One guy has 30 NHL games under his belt. The other is coming off injury and a difficult playoff performance.
I have no problem with inexperienced players to start with. They make inexperienced mistakes perhaps, vets make mistakes as well. To me it comes down to talent and skating, play the better player. Off hand Bro took the place of Ceci and Des deep in the playoffs, because he’s a better hockey player
From reports Emberson is better at many things than Ceci. Gapping, standing up at the line, good stick, more physical though smaller, boxes out well. He’s also good at getting shots through at the O blue line for rebounds and tips, mobile 4 directions. He feels he’s good at moving the puck to forwards. If he can stay healthy I think he will improve things as it goes, from last year
People were pretty comfortable with Broberg in this role and he has 80 games of experience.
I feel the situation will be evaluated and addressed (as needed) at some point during the season. There really is no urgency as the team should outscore most opponents with this lineup.
I am 95% certain that Emberson will work out well.
Besides, we’ve be looking for that guy for sooo sooo long,so it’s just gotta work out perfectly this time around….right?
Dennis King
@DKingBH
Sep 25
Dennis King
Huh?
Apparently the verbal from Stauffer has changed on the Athanasiou trade, now that Holland is no longer with the organization.
Shortly after the trade, the verbal was about that we couldn’t afford to keep him because of the flat cap due to Covid.
Does Dennis know you can turn off the caps lock button?
I’ll say it again, huh? Stauffer’s name isn’t mentioned in the tweets posted.
And the tweet makes no sense no matter how many times I read it.
Most people with kids try to do the best for them Holland was trying his all to win a cup while at the same time he was mentoring his son to take over as the Edmonton G.M for years to come. This all fell apart the day Jackson was hired Wright was pretty much immediately let go. I would say popping the bed on the Bourgault pick with the possibility of a franchise Goalie sitting on a platter was Wrights final undoing. Anyhow I do believe the Holland clan felt a bit a distaste on there departures. I also believe the offer sheets from Armstrong was a nice gesture to his buddy Holland.
Speculation, of course, but all very plausible.
Just think, one game away from winning the cup, while we had $4m in buried cap penalty with Campbell.
Wright had a bad run at the draft table in Detroit, setting the table for a stalled Yzerplan.
Hiring Wright along with the Jack Campbell contract were two of Holland’s biggest errors, amoung others.
Agents say all sorts of things, of course, but Broberg’s agent was pretty clear there were other GM’s who were prepared to make offers but St. Louis went to the maximum number before increasing compensation above what would make sense. The fact that they went max leads me to believe there was competition from other teams.
Possibly on the Broberg front but the Holloway offer sheet was almost personal like. Armstrong opened up a can of worms on the Holloway offer sheet. Why put a target on your back? What say you?
There was considerable chatter that Brad was pissed the his Dad was being blamed for bungling the Broberg/Holloway signings.
Could explain why his departure came so late in the offseason.
I think it’s the other way around Holland was a dead man walking the moment Jackson was hired.
Why in the world are Dennis King’s Oilers bashing tweets being posted on here?
Maybe go out of their way to NOT see what he has to say.
Am I misremembering?
There was a guy that LT used to have on his show years ago. I think he was from NFLD and really colorful and funny. I thought that guy was Dennis King, but I could be wrong?
No idea.
Dennis King online thinks he’s colorful and funny but is more insufferable. He’s free to post his opinions here on his own, which would suck, as I wouldn’t be able to avoid them like I (and various others) are generally able to do on other platforms.
I apologize for that. Debating the merits or lack thereof for the Athanasiou trade, was one of my favorite conversation pieces here.
I find it’s hard to find enough volume of Oilers content to consume lately, so I have been reading Twitter.
I once had a heated debate with another poster here (who had vehemently defended the merits of the trade) that culminated in them calling me a “middle manager.”
Those were good times. 🙂
Dennis King is a smart guy and has great insight. His tweets are welcome here. I don’t see any issue at all, especially after Ryan explained the context.
In my opinion, that’s an aggressive use of the term “great insight”.
He is extremely arrogant, pretentious and condescending and his contributions to the Oilers’ community are majorly bashing Ken Holland or Stauffer – of course, when he’s not posting screen shots of posts on this site to twitter to make fun of – yes, he’s done that ALOT – chicken shit move
It sounds like you have some issues with Mr. King. I do not. If the tweet posted was offensive, or contained bad language, a slur, or was bullying, I would remove it.
I don’t believe the quoted piece qualifies in any of these areas. Of course, we can disagree on whether or not Mr. King offers intelligent views or insight, but I’ve known him for years and can say with authority he is in fact a bright fellow and does have great insight.
You may not like his style, but that’s another matter entirely.
I would think any poster is free to repost an Oiler fan tweet that stirs conversation whether it’s to your liking or not.
Dennis if reading this thread at least knows of your opinion of him now lol
OP has expressed his distress many times.
That’s him.
And he has some unique “politically incorrect” insights that stray from the company line.
20 years of randos. Good name for a band, that.
or the title of your sex tape…
that’s a wonderful photo, LT – brings back stirring memories of prairie autumns – thanks!
Yes, it is imperative that the coaching staff has to be building a Ryan & Perry succession plan. They have plenty of chess pieces to move about. Try (Hamblin-Philp-Podkolzin) for example.
Coach advised that the plan for all the locks for the team, including the likes of McDavid, Ekholm, Drai, Bouch, are to play 4 exhibition games and they will look for “their lines” to play 2-3 games together.
training camp absolutely matters; winning pre-season games bot so much
— Pre-season in professional sport might not “matter” while still being important:
1) So that players get into game shape
2) new teammates get acclimatized to their team, systems etc
3) the group bonding that every sports team and most work environments foster.
4) Coaching staffs get to implement new strategies tactics set tone for team.
5) Opportunities to evaluate progress of those who aren’t going to be playing in the big leagues to see how the pros work, work out, diet, approach etc.
6) It’s how professional teams get fans and press engaged and looking forward to the new season to sell tickets buy stuff etc. Remember this is entertainment, they are being paid crazy sums by the fans to play a game for those who almost all make fractions of what they earn. More than anything else training camps are about access for promotion purposes, where they don’t actually get paid. They mostly hate it.
7) The economic impact on whatever town the team practices in can be significant for that town
8) If there are injuries they can go to plan B and have those players integrate into the team
— Every year ever player shows up in the best shape of their life, looked at all facets of themselves and what to improve
— Every coaching staff every year learned from last year and ready to implement new tactics and or new coaches come in. Because you know the guys that were touted last year weren’t any good and now they are better.
GOILERS!
I think point number 4 is the most important one. We’ve seen coaches come in part way through the season and due to the compact nature of the schedule not get any practice days where they can try their hand at what they want to see done. It can’t be underestimated how well Knoblauch did in that situation last year.
— It’s been a real problem for this organization how the coaches come in and the disconnect between what they are trying to do and what the team actually accomplishes.
— My antipathy for the hyperbole of pre-season in sport: just the Oil last 3 years: can point to Tippet: who was fired 43 games into a season when it was clear that despite having a pre-season after his first season to “learn” his team wasn’t ready
— Then Woodcroft saves the season gets the off-season to “learn” only to get fired after 13 games because the team sucked again
— Now KK has had the off-season to “learn” and everyone is just as excited about how great he is and how the team “learned” and is ready.
— It’s something that hasn’t really been discussed much here. Maybe the players have “learned” and this coach won’t have to be fired but the Oilers have burned through a lot of coaches : all who the fans and media said were awesome and all the players were “ready” and “learned”.
— This is just a small sample size of why I tune out pre-season in any sport. It just has no bearing on what happens when games matter. It just doesn’t.
— Hopefully KK and coaching staff will do better than his most recent predecessors: but we don’t know and this pre season gives no insight (they never do!)!
No arguments on the uselessness of preseason for fans to learn anything of value for the team. It may simply be a task that has to be accomplished in order to fulfill contractual obligations at the end of it all.
I expect a better start. Last season up to Nov 12 only 2 players had a positive 5v5 GF% (by one goal), 3 broke even. Gagner had 5 games as an above water, the other 4 had GA of 14,10,10,12
Holland left his team thin because he didn’t want to move anyone and clear cap, and took a risk on C Brown that didn’t pan out reg season. And overpayed him while at it. Some that had rough playoffs kept on struggling at the start
KK and coaches seem better with the players and will promote and fade based on play in real time, while Tippet and Woody were pretty stubborn on the things to me. This roster has more depth. There is more on the farm now at D that can stop gap like Gleason and Kemp who is probably as good as J Brown and not small. Centre depth is better with Henri and a climbing Philp if Ryan struggles still
— Hope so.. There was nothing but positivity when Tipp had the off season to prepare and the team way better and players in best shape of life and learned. That beget Todd : same playbook. Everyone best shape of life coach and staff ready. That begets Kk: same story.
— Never not once any inkling from any source or media that everyone wasn’t I. Same page and this is the year.
— 3rd times a charm we hope. But I just can’t get into any of the propaganda spewed by any sport team in their pre-season.
— Puck drops in a few weeks. I’ll just hate post a few times untill then about the inherent nonesense and “theatre” that comes with pre-season anything if it used to be able to make forecasts or provide glimpses into actual results for any sport!
The NHL is as unfriendly to it’s fans as possible. LT may develop MLB distaste at some point
At some point I hope this team can still play at a high level missing some guys. Other teams do it regularly. Boston lost it’s two top centres for crying out loud. The Oilers would get relegated if that happened
The relegation line is a sick burn, but I actually think the NHL would be better off if we had relegation. Colby Cosh had a good column about this 15 years ago. (It’s too bad he rarely writes about the Oilers anymore – he has a golden pen.)
I actually saw him quite good in the first game against the Jets but, from accounts, he was the opposite in the 2nd game in Calgary (and I did see him make a terrible below goal line giveaway for a goal against).
Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp and Ben Gleason are also in photo. Cam Dineen doesn’t get much love but he looked good when I saw him
Similar to Brown, Dinnen showed well against Winnipeg (although he did have a couple poor puck decisions that didn’t cause harm but could have) and, from accounts, not so good in Calgary (and, I believe -3).
I agree with this 100% but hope (although do not expect) Phil Kemp to have his name in that call-up conversation.
For years you’ve been one of the best commenters at the site. Honest, original, and well reasoned posts. Not a collection of regurgitated line items read elsewhere as is so often the case. How that gets you two immediate downvotes on every post at this moment is a puzzle. Clearly, we have a couple petty and vindictive readers who have nothing better to do. Upvote.
I downvote him every time he makes a post without ending it with a “Case closed!” Or challenges someone without saying “I object!”.
It’s petty of me, but I have high expectations for posters who are lawyers.
Agree, it’s petty.
Appreciate that but, of course, not everyone’s style is everyone else’s cup of tea.
There are a few posters that have every post downvoted simply due to their name.
The up/down votes are of absolutely no consequence and, as I’ve opined before, should be completely disregarded – I don’t understand why some get in feelings about the votes.
Agreed, not sure why they brought them in at all. I assume they are the same posters that quit or threaten to quit the site because HH, among others, are allowed to post here.
I actually find the up/down votes to be helpful feedback. (And more helpful with the up/down separated out than simply an aggregate.)
Sometimes I post knowing that I’ll get hugely downvoted. Helps me to develop a thicker skin – a necessary part of debate.
Sometimes I post expecting to get downvoted and it doesn’t happen.
Sometimes the opposite happens.
I think we all agree that neither Perry nor Ryan should play nightly but, the issue with suggesting press box is the team is unlikely to carry a 13th healthy forward for cap reasons. They have the room but using it would crater their daily accrual and the manager has talked up that accrual big time.
They could carry the 12 healthy forwards generally and just call up a Philp or Lavoie to sub in (and take the accrual down for a couple days here or there before re-assigning).
up and down on paper; wouid be easier if Edmonton had AHL team here
That would solve the waivers factor but, yes, logistically, it could help alot – in particular given the “rule” that a player re-assigned needs to take prompt steps to re-locate to join their assigned team (of course, this gets stretched in reality).
I think Edmonton is the only Canadian team that doesn’t have their AHL affiliate very close now.
We know that Ken Holland was very much against moving the AHL affiliate to Edmonton – he was big on a call-up being more meaningful with real re-location and the AHL/NHL teams not really “mixing daily”.
I don’t know what Jackson’s thoughts are but I do know that the Condors are a very successful business operation that they may not want to mess with.
It’s up to the Coach to make hard decisions when needed these players are humans with ego’s so it’s not all glory being the boss. Anyhow I do hope they give the green light to Nurse on activating while Emberson stays at home. It’s imperative that we don’t start like last year. The big dogs wasted way to much energy getting us back where we belong. This is the shortest offseason we’ve ever had but sknner-Arvidsson-Emberson-Podkolzin-Lavoie-Brown and hopefully Stecher are all fresh and need to come out the blocks hard.
Kris Knoblauch has stated that he’ll run with the playoff third line of Mattias Janmark-Adam Henrique-Connor Brown. You can’t blame the coaching staff for doing it, that trio was golden after what seemed like 20 years of randos on the No. 3 unit.
Don’t disagree from a high level. I don’t have an issue with keeping that trio together but I do think that Janmark at 4LW and a “higher potential impact 2-say player” like Podz or, moreso, Lavoie, at 3LW could optimize the lineup. Of course, Lavoie has to make the team in order to play there and does anyone think that he makes the team over Podz or Perry?
As you mention, lets not forget, that 3rd line played 52 minutes in the playoffs and, despite 2-1 goals, were under 40% CF and 46% expected goals – that is while playing a high pressure style that likely isn’t sustainable during the regular season. Of course, they also won’t be playing Dallas and Florida nightly.
In any event, totally understand the coach starting with this trio – I don’t think its unbreakable early though,
Apologies on missing the quote on the first paragraph – a mistake and too late to edit – sorry!
Agree that they deserve to start together.
But there’s recency bias at play here. 52 minutes together in the playoffs? That’s basically the last four games of the SCF. That’s a hugely important sample size, and one for which we’ll remember them forever. They were effectively our second line, with ultimate glory at stake.
But it’s a small sample size all the same. And probably not a representative one, for the reasons you list.
That’s me and, yes, subject to injury (or Bowman carrying a 14th forward, in addition to Kane), I am reasonably confident but, of course, can’t be certain.
I just don’t think its reasonable to think that management will waive Cory Perry in early October. I think it SHOULD be an option but I don’t think it realistically is. That essentially means the likes of Lavoie and Savoie don’t really have a chance, right?
I do think that Derek Ryan could be at risk – that’s one spot up front. If they are going to sneak him through waivers, doing so during the barrage in the first week of October likely makes sense. At the same time, the natural replacement, Noah Philp remains waivers exempt.
I can see them waiving Ryan but keeping him on the roster – provides some flexibility to move him up and down for the first month of the season.
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On the back end, I don’t think there is a reasonable chance that anyone displaces Emberson as opening night 2RD. Both Troy Stecher and Josh Brown have underwhelmed early but I don’t think Dermott has outplayed.
Realistically, again, I don’t think Philp Kemp has a real chance at opening night although I think he should.
I don’t think there is much room for any tweener or prospect to break camp with the team subject to injury (or Bowman wanting to run with an extra healthy forward and not accrue much cap space).
In that regard, I think the 12F (plus Kane), 7D and 2G are all but set.
At the same time, of course, preseason is definitely important – players are leaving impressions, both ways, they are setting themselves up for potential recalls, etc., etc.
Noah Philp is highly likely putting himself ahead of Lane Pederson, and likely James Hamblin as well, for example.
Raphael Lavoie is showing that, if Cory Perry has lost another step, he may be the right guy to recall, if not claimed.
I don’t understand how running with 13 forwards plus Kane on IR effects accruing cap space or even if they should decide to go with 8 Dmen & 12 forwards plus Kane?
Adding that 23rd player (inluding Kane) adds their cap space.
With 12 healthy forwards (plus Kane) and 7D, they look to have apx $945K of cap space and, each day, will accrue the daily portion thereof to bank.
If they added a 13th healthy forward, reduce that cap space by at least $775K.
Ok I wasn’t sure how that worked Thanks.
I would waive Perry and Ryan.The fourth line should be the next kid line.Philp,Lavoie,and Podzkolin……6ft3,6ft4,6ft3.lots of size to intimidate,and provide energy.Back to 1990 with Graves,Murphy,andGelinas!
I’m not so sure Lavoie is a fourth line type. Hamblin’s utility & speed might fit in better IMO giving them two centers (Hamblin LHC & Philp RHC) playing together along with Podkolzin who can play either wing, also all three can PK. Three pieces that fit together to form a fourth line with speed, tenacity and functionality.
I agree that those two SHOULD be at risk but am not sure they realistically are, in particular Perry, I think Ryan is more at risk.
If they did go with that fourth line, do you think the coach would trust them to play more than a shift or two later in games that are close?
Do you think the coach would trust (Podz-Ryan-Perry) to play more than a shift or two later in games that are close?
Yes, moreso than the rookie plus Podz line.
I’ve been watching Hamblin tonight and he has the same utility to his game as Ryan with way more speed.
Philp has been impressive as well. Podkolzin is probably a better bet than Perry as a fourth liner at this stage of his career.
I feel a little like Don Quiote tilting at windmills, but I see no way Josh Brown starts with the big club outside of an injury. he is $225k too expensive (and cap is a premium). he has a 3 year deal at $1 million, so they can waive him and no one claims him. Giving us an experienced call up without fear of losing him (why it’s a fear makes no sense, but here we are). He is overpaid and extended way too long for his skill set. So he is ticketed to Bako!!!!
Dermott will get a one year minimum deal to be our 7th dman. He can play both sides, is a vet, skates well and is a lesser version of Brett Kulak (with a chance to be Kulak based on history and pedigree).
Brown will only come up if we see injuries. And even then I don’t expect it. I am working on faith that this management team is smarter, and simply having More Size will not be enough to stay up with the big club, especially in a tight cap situation!!!!!
I agree with all you have said, but it was this management group that signed him to the 3 year deal. I want him to go down to Bakersfield, but I think he starts the season here.
THIS is why training camp matters. Plans change. The coaching staff can run Brown on the third pairing, but if it starts costing regular season games, they will make a move. If Knoblauch were a more established coach, I’d have more confidence in a change before the season begins. As it is, I am encouraged that Brown is playing a lot. Sink or swim before it counts in the standings.
One of the things that should/could/might help with this would be that Bowman is not responsible for signing Perry or J Brown. He didn’t give Ryan that 2nd year.
As you point out with prospects these signings were not made by this GM & Jackson is back in Toronto, I believe, as TC and exhibition games are being played. I think that means that Knoblauch & Bowman are the ones most likely to have the greatest input into the final decision on who starts the season.
I don’t know if that is enough for immediate change but it should shorten the timeline if change needs to be made.
Have we seen the Kulak-Brown pairing in exhibition season game yet? It could make all the difference in the world if he’s paired with an NHL veteran defenseman. I saw him good in the first game against the Jets and didn’t see the second in Calgary which from some accounts wasn’t very good. But who was he paired with? Did he have different partners in both games?
I thought this at the time of signing and for most of the summer.
Through a week of camp, it looks like that is not the initial plan of management and coaching but we’ll see after week two!
If we are going to hasten down the wind, are we doing it Warren Zevon style, or Linda Rondstadt style? Both will work for me, I just need to figure out what to wear for this.
I was thinking of Mr. Zevon when I wrote it, but Linda Ronstadt owns my heart. So, tough call.
I hope Stecher gets to 100% soon. Between the three new D they should be able to cobble enough out of them as things settle. The tiny sample Nurse Stecher stats were smokin’
I though Stecher is 100% after his minor surgery to remove a syst from his ankle.
Not sure, LT mentioned it in his article above. Maybe Bruce Tanya Harding’ed him, flying to Winnipeg to say sorry
Janmark 31 years old
2023 25 points 14:40 TOI
2024 12 points 11:54 TOI
Henrick 34 years old
2023 38 points 18:11 TOI
2024 51 points 16:00 TOI (ish)
Brown 30 years old
2022 39 points 20:03 TOI
2023 0 points 16:46 TOI
2024 12 points 12:48 TOI
A this point Janmark and Brown are very good 4th liners. Perry is probably a very good 13th forward.
I expect Janmark to slide down if someone is playing well enough to slide up, because offense. He’s a playoff gamer and that’s fine
Brown though might recover more offense. Now that he can get around normally it should make a difference, a guy his size has to have his boots to be effective at all. Just ask D Ryan
I think once Jarventie is up to speed he’ll get a good look on the bottom 6 his rambunctious style may be needed.
I don’t think Savoie or Jarventie see more than a few games. Roby has to work on his two way game still from most reports, they aren’t going to have an iffy bottom 6 player as a regular. Savoie needs to get stronger, dominate the A, stay healthy
Injury is the wild card, but unless one of them blows the doors off, next season
I don’t think he’s known to be overly rambunctious, is he?
I was heartened by Stu’s interview a few weeks back. Talked about working on conditioning, skating, lateral movement and the like. Excellent stuff and exactly what you want to hear from a young gent taking deliberate strides. I thought his movement let him down last year. Saw him overcommit at time and play to deep in his net at others. The lateral work should help on the rush chances too. 2v1’s are dangerous plays yes, but NHL goalies still stop somewhere in the market of 65-70% of those shots.
For the season stability from week to week is what I hope to see. The best NHL goalies are consistent. Stu had as many months of hockey below .900 as he had above last year. We don’t need a Shesterkin, we need a rocking chair. Steady as she goes, game after game after game. If we don’t hear about Stu this year and he can tilt the consistency to 70/30 months above .900 we’ll be cooking with gas.
I hope it helps his glove, or he worked on it. I noticed last season when he was getting beat there he was carrying his glove pretty low. Most seem to have it up higher and open facing out
Skinner has been there done that he’s faced the most pressure that’ll he’ll ever face and has made through in one piece. I think we see a more mature Stu that knows the importance of consistency and will thrive on it. I hope Stu and his D especially Nurse make a conscious effort to alleviate the Own Goal daggers that we have seen the last couple of playoffs.
It is worth discussing that the 4th line is an area which should receive some focus this season. Having a bottom 6 that can outscore is valuable, and the team should look at the guys who will deliver that. I hope the GM and coaches are willing to tweak the guys on the 4th line regularly to find the combination of speed, PK ability/potential and scoring to make opposing teams have to pay attention when McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice.
Great post LT. Thanks for the ideas to chew on.
The 4th line has to be able to do something, not just fill time for 6 minutes a game hoping not to be scored on. Score, pound everything in sight….do something meaningful.
I count keeping the puck in the opposition zone, cycling and getting chances as the metric I’d use to define success. I do like the physical play and I think guys like Hamblin and Philp bring the heavy play along with the cycling ability. Ryan doesn’t do that, although Perry can bring it in spurts. I agree with those saying Perry needs to be a 13th fwd who comes in for spot duty. Podkolzin should be a lock for the 4th, and I think will be a fan favorite considering how much he likes to engage. I’ve been pleased with how he has played in preseason so far, but I don’t count on him reaching 15 pts this season.
Outscoring is always the goal, but a physical 4th line would really add an element to an otherwise tame skilled team, outside of Kane and Perry – if he can play. This is why J Brown is getting a push
I think Podkolzin does that for the 4th too.
He does engage. Pod and Philp would get it done. If Perry can play that might be an interesting line
Is Roby Jarventie physical?
Early indications are that he is physical. Needs to work on his hockey smarts though. I think we will get a better sense of him once he is in Bakersfield.
No he’s just fairly big and plays hard on the boards, has some skill from what I’ve read. Not a banger or pugilist
Actually looking at the link Bar_Qu posted I’m not sure how much offense he will have in the NHL. He only approached 1PPG in the A draft plus 4
So Wright’s drafting turned a 22 OV pick into a likely role player
I think the risk with Jarventie is worth the upside. Whereas they had Bourgault figured out and decided that what he was going to be was not a benefit to the organization. His usage/progress last year made it clear there was not a path forward for him. We can quibble on the pick and whether it was well founded, but the choice of what to do this summer was well handled imo.
It was. I have felt that they didn’t do this in the past much was wasting picks. Swap a problem with another team and roll the dice. Better than folding
1PPG in the A draft plus 4 is not chopped liver. I think that’s fine progress for a second-rounder. Will Bourgault ever get close to that?
Knoblauch has said he wants to look at Podz as a PKer. Plus, Podz is very interested in adding the PK to his repertoire.
The problem with teaks on the 4th line is the cap space.
Its likely the Oilers have 12 healthy forwards to start the season.
They will have space for a 13th but it would take their available cap space down to under $200K and really crater their daily accrual.