Lots of chatter yesterday about preseason not being important, but the depth chart for the season is seeing some subtle changes. Noah Philp has shown well early, and that may not mean a roster spot (he is not a waiver worry) he could hasten down the wind and inspire an earlier recall. Josh Brown appears to be the No. 3 RH defenceman on the coaching staff’s depth chart, but the on-ice performance is allowing a large group of contenders a sliver of hope.
I keep hearing ‘the roster is set’ and opening night looks certain. When it comes to the season ahead, are you sure? I don’t believe you should be certain about this roster at the fringes.
LINES AND PAIRINGS
The club spent yesterday with the lineup one could expect to see opening night. Connor McDavid was in the middle on the top line, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman on the wings. Those three men scored 63 percent of the five-on-five goals when they were on the ice together last year. I think a coaching staff would need a good reason to check down from that trio. Modern hockey is miles away from the NHL I grew up with, when lines stayed together for years. However, I do think McDavid-Hyman will last the entire season.
The second line features Leon Draisaitl and two new substantial wingers in Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. This group should fill the net this season. I’ve read here and there that the hope is Draisaitl can outscore five-on-five without McDavid, like it was a problem a year ago. For the record, No. 29 without the captain delivered 58 percent of the five-on-five goals. What you might look for is an increase in goals-60 at five-on-five. Last year, McDavid w/o Leon was 4.07 goals-60 and Draisaitl without 97 was 2.89 goals-60. Perhaps that gap can close. By the way, McDavid-Draisaitl together five-on-five scored 4.89 goals-60 and owned 64 percent of the goals. Incredible. We are seeing peak NHL with these two men.
Kris Knoblauch has stated that he’ll run with the playoff third line of Mattias Janmark-Adam Henrique-Connor Brown. You can’t blame the coaching staff for doing it, that trio was golden after what seemed like 20 years of randos on the No. 3 unit. Many is the time when I watched an Oilers game and thought about Ethan Moreau-Todd Marchant-Mike Grier and their accomplishments. In just under one hour during last year’s playoffs, the line scored 67 percent of the goals (2-1) but had a 44 percent expected goal share. All three men can PK capably, so that’s an added benefit.
The fourth line opening night looks like Vasily Podkolzin-Derek Ryan-Corey Perry but results matter and I do believe the coaching staff is building a Ryan and Perry succession plan. When people say “training camp doesn’t matter” I think this is the area where I disagree. At center, we have Ryan (who can move to the wing) followed by Lane Pederson (good speed, skill, also RH), Noah Philp (something close to a perfect fit for the No. 4 C role and displaying less rust than anticipated) and James Hamblin (LH, doesn’t have a lot of offense but owns great utility). We can ignore what is happening in front of us, or we can acknowledge that the play here is moving Ryan to the wing (he can still PK as a center), moving Perry to the pressbox (I don’t think he gets many regular season games with Ryan as his center) and then elevating one of Pederson, Philp or Hamblin. The games these men play over the next several days may put the depth chart in the order we will see them over this season. That’s important and is not settled. So, training camp does in fact matter.
On defense, the top pairing is among the best in the NHL. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are both healthy from all reports, and I can see this duo playing half of the games some nights if the wheels fall off the second and third pairing. During the playoffs, the duo owned 65 percent of the five-on-five goals. They were 4-5 goals without 97, but the expected goals percentage (55) matched the eye test.
Darnell Nurse and Ty Emberson look to be the second pairing. Nurse hasn’t played yet, recovering from a playoff injury, and Emberson lacks experience and hasn’t played one minute with Nurse. It isn’t a story because the organization keeps saying it isn’t a story, but this is a team expected to win Stanley. The second pair is going to be a big story either way. If they’re successful, that’s going to be a helluva feat. If they are not, the heat will be on right away. If the Oilers lose games early due to defensive issues, there is no obvious fix for a second pair that struggles.
Brett Kulak and Josh Brown appear to be the third pairing and we’ll see. Brown didn’t play well in the first game of the preseason, but that’s a small sample size. The larger sample, from a year ago, is also not encouraging. I suspect Troy Stecher is the safety net (here and for the second pair) but his impact has been shy this camp due to injury recovery.
Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp and Ben Gleason are also in photo. Cam Dineen doesn’t get much love but he looked good when I saw him. Max Wanner is impressive but is heading for Bakersfield soon. My question: If this team gets desperate, and Wanner continues to be a quality Condor, would a recall before Christmas be possible? My suspicion is no, but that means Stan Bowman makes a trade and Rasmus Ristolainen is the only name I’ve heard. Bad idea.
I wrote about Stuart Skinner at The Athletic today, I think he’s an ideal Oilers goaltender. He’s from here, knows the lore, has a calm demeanor and has saved the club for two regular seasons running. He has also played a lot of playoff hockey, been a stand-up guy when things didn’t go well, and has solved the stopper issue to the point where fan anxiety is at a low ebb this fall. The only downbeat I’ve read is about Calvin Pickard, but he was rock solid in big moments one year ago.
Training camp matters. You can look at the waiver eligibles and assume they will make the club, but it’s an uneasy roster with Brown, Perry and Ryan in everyday roles. Change will come.
The Lowdown hits the airwaves at noon today, on Sports 1440. We’ll have Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, we’ll discuss the Elks decision to fade Tre Ford in the starter’s role, and talk about an amazing triple play on the left coast last night. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Can Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner deliver a complete season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5791053/2024/09/25/oilers-goalie-stuart-skinner-stats-2024/
— Pre-season in professional sport might not “matter” while still being important:
1) So that players get into game shape
2) new teammates get acclimatized to their team, systems etc
3) the group bonding that every sports team and most work environments foster.
4) Coaching staffs get to implement new strategies tactics set tone for team.
5) Opportunities to evaluate progress of those who aren’t going to be playing in the big leagues to see how the pros work, work out, diet, approach etc.
6) It’s how professional teams get fans and press engaged and looking forward to the new season to sell tickets buy stuff etc. Remember this is entertainment, they are being paid crazy sums by the fans to play a game for those who almost all make fractions of what they earn. More than anything else training camps are about access for promotion purposes, where they don’t actually get paid. They mostly hate it.
7) The economic impact on whatever town the team practices in can be significant for that town
8) If there are injuries they can go to plan B and have those players integrate into the team
— Every year ever player shows up in the best shape of their life, looked at all facets of themselves and what to improve
— Every coaching staff every year learned from last year and ready to implement new tactics and or new coaches come in. Because you know the guys that were touted last year weren’t any good and now they are better.
GOILERS!
I think point number 4 is the most important one. We’ve seen coaches come in part way through the season and due to the compact nature of the schedule not get any practice days where they can try their hand at what they want to see done. It can’t be underestimated how well Knoblauch did in that situation last year.
I actually saw him quite good in the first game against the Jets but, from accounts, he was the opposite in the 2nd game in Calgary (and I did see him make a terrible below goal line giveaway for a goal against).
Travis Dermott, Phil Kemp and Ben Gleason are also in photo. Cam Dineen doesn’t get much love but he looked good when I saw him
Similar to Brown, Dinnen showed well against Winnipeg (although he did have a couple poor puck decisions that didn’t cause harm but could have) and, from accounts, not so good in Calgary (and, I believe -3).
I agree with this 100% but hope (although do not expect) Phil Kemp to have his name in that call-up conversation.
I think we all agree that neither Perry nor Ryan should play nightly but, the issue with suggesting press box is the team is unlikely to carry a 13th healthy forward for cap reasons. They have the room but using it would crater their daily accrual and the manager has talked up that accrual big time.
They could carry the 12 healthy forwards generally and just call up a Philp or Lavoie to sub in (and take the accrual down for a couple days here or there before re-assigning).
Kris Knoblauch has stated that he’ll run with the playoff third line of Mattias Janmark-Adam Henrique-Connor Brown. You can’t blame the coaching staff for doing it, that trio was golden after what seemed like 20 years of randos on the No. 3 unit.
Don’t disagree from a high level. I don’t have an issue with keeping that trio together but I do think that Janmark at 4LW and a “higher potential impact 2-say player” like Podz or, moreso, Lavoie, at 3LW could optimize the lineup. Of course, Lavoie has to make the team in order to play there and does anyone think that he makes the team over Podz or Perry?
As you mention, lets not forget, that 3rd line played 52 minutes in the playoffs and, despite 2-1 goals, were under 40% CF and 46% expected goals – that is while playing a high pressure style that likely isn’t sustainable during the regular season. Of course, they also won’t be playing Dallas and Florida nightly.
In any event, totally understand the coach starting with this trio – I don’t think its unbreakable early though,
That’s me and, yes, subject to injury (or Bowman carrying a 14th forward, in addition to Kane), I am reasonably confident but, of course, can’t be certain.
I just don’t think its reasonable to think that management will waive Cory Perry in early October. I think it SHOULD be an option but I don’t think it realistically is. That essentially means the likes of Lavoie and Savoie don’t really have a chance, right?
I do think that Derek Ryan could be at risk – that’s one spot up front. If they are going to sneak him through waivers, doing so during the barrage in the first week of October likely makes sense. At the same time, the natural replacement, Noah Philp remains waivers exempt.
I can see them waiving Ryan but keeping him on the roster – provides some flexibility to move him up and down for the first month of the season.
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On the back end, I don’t think there is a reasonable chance that anyone displaces Emberson as opening night 2RD. Both Troy Stecher and Josh Brown have underwhelmed early but I don’t think Dermott has outplayed.
Realistically, again, I don’t think Philp Kemp has a real chance at opening night although I think he should.
I don’t think there is much room for any tweener or prospect to break camp with the team subject to injury (or Bowman wanting to run with an extra healthy forward and not accrue much cap space).
In that regard, I think the 12F (plus Kane), 7D and 2G are all but set.
At the same time, of course, preseason is definitely important – players are leaving impressions, both ways, they are setting themselves up for potential recalls, etc., etc.
Noah Philp is highly likely putting himself ahead of Lane Pederson, and likely James Hamblin as well, for example.
Raphael Lavoie is showing that, if Cory Perry has lost another step, he may be the right guy to recall, if not claimed.
I feel a little like Don Quiote tilting at windmills, but I see no way Josh Brown starts with the big club outside of an injury. he is $225k too expensive (and cap is a premium). he has a 3 year deal at $1 million, so they can waive him and no one claims him. Giving us an experienced call up without fear of losing him (why it’s a fear makes no sense, but here we are). He is overpaid and extended way too long for his skill set. So he is ticketed to Bako!!!!
Dermott will get a one year minimum deal to be our 7th dman. He can play both sides, is a vet, skates well and is a lesser version of Brett Kulak (with a chance to be Kulak based on history and pedigree).
Brown will only come up if we see injuries. And even then I don’t expect it. I am working on faith that this management team is smarter, and simply having More Size will not be enough to stay up with the big club, especially in a tight cap situation!!!!!
I agree with all you have said, but it was this management group that signed him to the 3 year deal. I want him to go down to Bakersfield, but I think he starts the season here.
THIS is why training camp matters. Plans change. The coaching staff can run Brown on the third pairing, but if it starts costing regular season games, they will make a move. If Knoblauch were a more established coach, I’d have more confidence in a change before the season begins. As it is, I am encouraged that Brown is playing a lot. Sink or swim before it counts in the standings.
One of the things that should/could/might help with this would be that Bowman is not responsible for signing Perry or J Brown. He didn’t give Ryan that 2nd year.
As you point out with prospects these signings were not made by this GM & Jackson is back in Toronto, I believe, as TC and exhibition games are being played. I think that means that Knoblauch & Bowman are the ones most likely to have the greatest input into the final decision on who starts the season.
I don’t know if that is enough for immediate change but it should shorten the timeline if change needs to be made.
If we are going to hasten down the wind, are we doing it Warren Zevon style, or Linda Rondstadt style? Both will work for me, I just need to figure out what to wear for this.
I was thinking of Mr. Zevon when I wrote it, but Linda Ronstadt owns my heart. So, tough call.
I hope Stecher gets to 100% soon. Between the three new D they should be able to cobble enough out of them as things settle. The tiny sample Nurse Stecher stats were smokin’
Janmark 31 years old
2023 25 points 14:40 TOI
2024 12 points 11:54 TOI
Henrick 34 years old
2023 38 points 18:11 TOI
2024 51 points 16:00 TOI (ish)
Brown 30 years old
2022 39 points 20:03 TOI
2023 0 points 16:46 TOI
2024 12 points 12:48 TOI
A this point Janmark and Brown are very good 4th liners. Perry is probably a very good 13th forward.
I expect Janmark to slide down if someone is playing well enough to slide up, because offense. He’s a playoff gamer and that’s fine
Brown though might recover more offense. Now that he can get around normally it should make a difference, a guy his size has to have his boots to be effective at all. Just ask D Ryan
I think once Jarventie is up to speed he’ll get a good look on the bottom 6 his rambunctious style may be needed.
I was heartened by Stu’s interview a few weeks back. Talked about working on conditioning, skating, lateral movement and the like. Excellent stuff and exactly what you want to hear from a young gent taking deliberate strides. I thought his movement let him down last year. Saw him overcommit at time and play to deep in his net at others. The lateral work should help on the rush chances too. 2v1’s are dangerous plays yes, but NHL goalies still stop somewhere in the market of 65-70% of those shots.
For the season stability from week to week is what I hope to see. The best NHL goalies are consistent. Stu had as many months of hockey below .900 as he had above last year. We don’t need a Shesterkin, we need a rocking chair. Steady as she goes, game after game after game. If we don’t hear about Stu this year and he can tilt the consistency to 70/30 months above .900 we’ll be cooking with gas.
I hope it helps his glove, or he worked on it. I noticed last season when he was getting beat there he was carrying his glove pretty low. Most seem to have it up higher and open facing out
Skinner has been there done that he’s faced the most pressure that’ll he’ll ever face and has made through in one piece. I think we see a more mature Stu that knows the importance of consistency and will thrive on it. I hope Stu and his D especially Nurse make a conscious effort to alleviate the Own Goal daggers that we have seen the last couple of playoffs.
It is worth discussing that the 4th line is an area which should receive some focus this season. Having a bottom 6 that can outscore is valuable, and the team should look at the guys who will deliver that. I hope the GM and coaches are willing to tweak the guys on the 4th line regularly to find the combination of speed, PK ability/potential and scoring to make opposing teams have to pay attention when McDavid and Draisaitl are off the ice.
Great post LT. Thanks for the ideas to chew on.
The 4th line has to be able to do something, not just fill time for 6 minutes a game hoping not to be scored on. Score, pound everything in sight….do something meaningful.
I count keeping the puck in the opposition zone, cycling and getting chances as the metric I’d use to define success. I do like the physical play and I think guys like Hamblin and Philp bring the heavy play along with the cycling ability. Ryan doesn’t do that, although Perry can bring it in spurts. I agree with those saying Perry needs to be a 13th fwd who comes in for spot duty. Podkolzin should be a lock for the 4th, and I think will be a fan favorite considering how much he likes to engage. I’ve been pleased with how he has played in preseason so far, but I don’t count on him reaching 15 pts this season.
Outscoring is always the goal, but a physical 4th line would really add an element to an otherwise tame skilled team, outside of Kane and Perry – if he can play. This is why J Brown is getting a push
I think Podkolzin does that for the 4th too.
He does engage. Pod and Philp would get it done. If Perry can play that might be an interesting line
Is Roby Jarventie physical?
Early indications are that he is physical. Needs to work on his hockey smarts though. I think we will get a better sense of him once he is in Bakersfield.