This is the Oilers 2016-17 training camp roster. Holy hell it’s a list. The left side of the depth chart on defense boasts real strength and sustain, while the RH side needed Brandon Davidson and Caleb Jones in order to offer balance. The current Oilers have a dandy No. 1 RH defenseman and I do like Ty Emberson as a second-pairing option. The organization has Troy Stecher as an option for third pair, but are giving Josh Brown a long look late in training camp. As you know, I like rugged players. I also like players who can help outscore opponents. Much of what we discuss in the coming days will surround those two points.
RUGGED SOUL
We’ve been discussing the rugged soul of the Edmonton Oilers since Vincent Desharnais left via free agency and Evander Kane confirmed he would miss significant time in the coming season. One of the things we need to discuss is deployment and success. Puck IQ is a Godsend for all things, if it was in Bible form I’m sure you’d see Puck IQ Kingdom Halls across the land.
Vincent Desharnais spent 29 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites. He did well, but was 6-12 goals while away from the McDavid line against the league’s best. Edmonton’s coaching staff faded him against the top opponents, and his player card shows he had good underlying numbers against the soft parade.
Evander Kane played 30 percent of his time versus elites, and owned a 3-3 goal share with the captain and 8-16 without versus elites. He was hurt much of last season but was a drag versus elites even with McDavid, who was 17-9 versus elites without Kane (all via Puck IQ) at five-on-five.
So, when we talk about rugged soul and Josh Brown needing to outscore, it should be placed in context. We are talking about adding physical players at the expense of outscoring.
Against elites, Evan Bouchard with McDavid one year ago: 11-10. Without? 9-6 goals. McDavid without: 9-3 goals.
Bouchard helps his team win. People get all caught up in the rugged side, and I get it. There’s an entire industry in Edmonton media that spends time talking about the rugged soul of the team being lost since Curt Brackenbury left town. Adding players who can’t outscore is not the answer.
What is the answer? The Oilers addressed this over the summer, but that will take time to have an impact. In the meantime, we’ll get a very good view of the coaching staff and their collective ability to assess talent and move that talent in a good direction. We need to acknowledge the truth in these Puck IQ numbers. Here’s Desharnais last season.
I think it’s fair to say he finished above 50 percent versus elites and most of the reasons had to do with his teammates. His DFF percentage (smart Corsi, like expected goals) is 50.8 percent but the relative numbers are in the ditch and his goal share against top opposition was 41 percent.
You may worship at the alter of the Oilers rugged soul if you wish, but please understand it comes at a price. Unless you’re talking about Adam Larsson as an Oiler when he was healthy.
A busy show today as waivers begins to take over the week. We’ll be live at noon, Sports 1440. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join me, and we welcome your comments. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
CERTAIN AND UNCERTAIN OILERS
We’re just about through now, I’m not going to publish the distant bells because there’s just injured guys left. I think we’ll see Olivier Rodrigue, Travis Dermott and Raphael Lavoie as the next cuts. I think Noah Philp will make this team.
New for The Athletic: Why Edmonton Oilers prospect Sam O’Reilly is a perfect organizational fit
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5810637/2024/10/02/edmonton-oilers-prospect-sam-oreilly/
Timeline is setting up nicely. By the end of this season, Philp is the 4C (handover from one Golden Bear to another – perfect). Philp then plays the entire 2025 – 2026 season in the NHL as 4C with O’Reilly back in the OHL. Training camp in fall 2026, sees O’Reilly and Philp as 3C and 4C (what order TBD) as Henrique should not be resigned.
For the 2026 – 2027 season, the Oilers 3C and 4C should not cost much more than $2m. Value contracts as required.
I don’t know. What are you going to tell Adam?
Usually, I agree with you about almost everything. In this case, I disagree on Brown as #7D. I think Dermott gets the spot, as is better at the hockey thing in general AND can play both sides… as long as we can sign him at a buryable amount to preserve our roster flexibility… Yes to Philp and Lavoie though! It is their time.
At this stage of their career are Perry and Ryan even everyday NHL players? I suspect we can expect 45ish games left on their career?? on the 4th line… for 8-10 minutes a night. 97, 29, 25, 14, 93 are mature enough and strong enough leaders to fill in on those soft skills that Ryan and Perry bring.
The risk of moving to Philp and Lavoie is so small and it has some upside.
With Swayman falling out of favour in Boston.
Would you trade Skinner for him?
Maybe something like Kane and Skinner for him, so the money works.
I love Swayman but I don’t think the Oilers could fit his likely contract of 8+ million into their current cap structure.
I also highly doubt the Bruins would trade him. And certainly not for Skinner and Kane.
I bet the oilers offered Deharnais the Brown contract or something similar (3x1M) and he tested free agency.
Good for him on getting that extra $1M- this is life changing money for most. The oilers could not afford to pay him that.
The Brown contract is a weird one but it can be buried. I think, for depth purposes, they like the muscle waiting and ready on the sidelines.
While you head down to your Puck IQ kingdom hall, I will be praying to my Georgesx altar in my closet.
The holy grail statistics are the ones that have the strongest year over year correlation because, statistically speaking, they are the best predictor of future success (or failure).
If a statistic jumps around widely year over year for the same player then it’s not really any good at giving us a prediction.
Brown will undoubtedly clear waivers and his replacement will earn league minimum.
The Oilers should start the season without Brown on the roster to accrue as much space as possible and let Brown work his way back to the NHL with solid play in the A.
The Athletic has team by team predictions coming out this week.
Looks like the Math’s agree with the take that Vegas lost an awful lot of forward and goaling depth. Bubble Team alongside the Kings. Ducks, Flames and Sharks have already been reviewed and are amongst the worst in the league. The weakness of the Pacific, really the West in general, is the reason number 1 not to worry too much about our dear Oilers.
Managing ice time in a real and spectacular way against the Dregs should be Coach K’s biggest priority. It should also be the time he runs different wingers alongside the top PP. Pump everyone’s stats just a tad more.
Are there going to be evenings this regular season when maybe the team doesn’t push for the win — let’s say keeps the top 6 to under 20 regardless — with an eye on a playoff health and playoff energy, even if it costs a divisional title (to Vancouver, I don’t see anyone else coming close) and to that point, what is the value of home ice vs. aforementioned health and energy? And, how badly will the fanbase and media hyperventilate when this team goes 5-5 over any stretch of the season?
Those are the larger narrative arcs I’m looking forward to this season.
Per Gregor:
Perry, Podkolzin, Emberson, Stecher and Pickard skated this morning so, tonight’s lineup is likely:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Caggiula-Philp-Ryan
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Dermott
Kulak-J.Brown
Skinner
Rodrigue
D pairs could be swapped.
Seems odd they wouldn’t play Emberson tonight with Nurse in and, for me, I’d like to see Stecher with Kulak in a game against a solid lineup – but Brown.
This could be the game that decides if vanilla steady eddy Dermott recieves a contract and like I posted yeasterday I think he does.
I know it’s only preseason, but some very curious lineup decisions.
Josh Brown is Will Acton. A smell that won’t go away.
Interesting they’re playing Dermott with Nurse. I expected they would have a look at Dermott on the right side. But not with Nurse.
So, LT you want to just keep Brown around because he’s big? And not sign Dermott, who outplayed Brown all preseason, plays both sides and probably could be signed for league minimum.
How on earth did you get that out of what I wrote?
Lmao.
Well, you were talking about Josh Brown being a rugged soul and you have him making the final roster. It’s confusing. I’ve been supporting Brown all along up until recently.
I just don’t now see how he makes the roster. I guess because he’s a rugged soul and he can PK, possibly as well as Vinny.
Coach keeps talking about the PK. I think the right side of the PK D is giving this guy a ton of rope.
Does Dermott not PK?
Dermott
Career: 350.4 min in 329 games
2023 – 2024 with Zona: 130.1 min in 50 games
Brown
Career: 512.6 min in 290 games
2023 – 2024 with Zona: 105.3 min in 51 games
Brown and Dermott have already been evaluated – and Dermott won. However, I cannot find what side they played when on the PK so there is that.
He played 2:45 per game on the PK last year for Arizona – other than that, he’s had a few years where he’s hovered around 1 min/game on the PK and a number of years where his PK TOI was around 30 seconds per game.
Its also tough to see Dermott as an every day player with a healthy d-core as, really, although he can play the right side, from accounts, switching over is not something that is generally ideal.
I still can’t see how they keep brown around. he is not good. At best a depth #8 dman Send him down. No one will clai taht contract.
I expect them to sign Dermott and keep him up
And Philip is going down due to waiver eligibility. he will play a lot in the minors, and be one of the first call ups. especially if Ryan loses more of a step (he has looked good) or seems to be lagging. Lavoie could be lost, so i think it’s more a waiver thing. he stays, Philip down so they lose no one. It’s about the waiver wire
Philp actually has to play wherever he is. Lavoie does not (although it would be better if he did).
Pressboxing Philp in Edmonton would be a mistake. If he stays, he plays (or better be playing).
I’m not certain what you are responding to, but Philp has earned an NHL job. I don’t see him sitting, especially since the solves the Ryan-Perry speed issue. A platoon of Ryan-Perry seems likely to me, I think Philp is a faster train. Could be wrong.
Is there room on the roster for both Ryan & Perry?
Yes.
So who are the 2RD targets? Pretty short list if Emberson falls short:
Pionk – WPG probably needs to fall out to make it happen
Ristoleinen – warts are well known but have some gone away?
Juricek – young, unproven but intriguing
lol with the Risto suggestions. Look at his toi year over year. His numbers improved because he played third pairing minutes on a weak Philly team. He is not a real second pair option.
John Carlson if Washington tanks.
Will Borgen.
Parayko maybe.
Folks have posted extensive lists many times.
Artem Zub
This is the correct answer.
Is there a reason that Ottawa would trade him? He seems like a decent contract and they are under the cap. I haven’t seen the discussion around why/how to target Zub.
If they’re out of it at the deadline and Staios wants to put his stamp on the roster, yes.
Will Borgen
Glad to see more people onboard the Borgen Train! 🙂
Agree with your take LT. I like Des as well (who doesn’t) but he’s a 6/7 d-man that is now being paid like a 4/5. Our top pair is golden and I’m pretty darn sure that Emberson/Kulak would be great as a 3rd pair. Emberson can replace Ceci at 30% of the cap and Stetcher is fine as a #7.
Nurse is very good when healthy – problem is – he hasn’t been for a long time. If he’s 100% then “all” you need is the unicorn 2RD and the defense goes from suspect to excellent PDQ. It’s the only missing piece long with some grit as you point out. But getting Kane back for the playoffs, a bigger 2RD, and a guy like Kostin for the 4th line fixes all that. It’s all about the 2RD. Any other gaps are pretty easy to fill.
Agree that Philp has made the team unless the wheels fall off in the last 2 preseason games.
The 2016 training camp RW had Ebs (#22), Kas (#13), Jesse (#4) and Yak (#1). Four mid to high first round picks, with only Ebs having a stellar career (702 pts in 1018 gms). Drafting a player is easy (you just go up and say the name) – getting it right is very, very hard.
Oilers need to draft well (and quit losing young players) to sustain the current level of success. The trade and subsequent pick of Sam O’Reilly may be a win.
I like Des the person. Great story. But he got rolled once the comp increased in the playoffs. He was also heavily sheltered.
It would be great if the third pairing could eat some important minutes. I think Kulak + Stretcher could do it.
As long as Troy is not on a stretcher he should be ok at 3RD!