In his draft year, Matt Savoie scored 35-55-90 in 65 games (1.38 pts-60). He was chosen same year same round (but earlier) than Edmonton selection Reid Schaefer (66, 32-26-58 .88). Schaefer is just three months older than Savoie, but has a full AHL season (63, 7-14-21) on his resume. What should we expect, in terms of boxcars, from Matt Savoie as an AHL rookie at 20?
WHL TO AHL PROGRESSION (DRAFT YEAR TO ROOKIE AHL SEASON)
Leon Draisaitl was having an impact in the NHL by Halloween of his rookie pro season, so should be considered an extreme outlier. Tyler Benson had one of the best AHL seasons by a 20-year old in Oilers minor league history, and that was the peak of his career. I know he didn’t make it, but my goodness that was a strong enough season to warrant a recall.
The comparable for Savoie is Yamamoto. I think people have soured on him, injuries have had an impact and that’s a worry for Savoie, too. As an AHL player, Yamamoto was a screaming success. He carried the play, he was a magician with the puck, he tracked down opponents like a rabid dog, and he turned over pucks by the score. Seriously, if Yamamoto had been gifted with an exceptional AHL center, I think he could have delivered a point-per-game.
I’m guessing Savoie will have an exceptional AHL center, as the Condors will have more than one (Lane Pederson, Noah Philp). I suspect he’ll wow fans and be the biggest thing to hit town since Buck Owens. Traditionally, when a young player hits the AHL and scores extremely well, a recall is the next step. The Oilers have been a little wonky with the kids (see Benson, but also Philip Broberg and even Evan Bouchard) and that may continue even though the Ken Holland era is over. Stay tuned, we’ll be tracking this young man closely all winter.
WAIVERS TODAY
I think the Oilers path is clear. Sign Travis Dermott, make sure all the regulars have 10 fingers and toes, then get after it. A strong start is vital to this Oilers team, and they sure as hell earned it (but did not get it) based on the possession totals one year ago. I like this team. This group could win Stanley but will need a Kevin Lowe 2006 deadline.
My picks to win postseason awards are Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard. The heat is on Darnell Nurse and Stuart Skinner. The coolest outcome is Ty Emberson having success on the second pair. The top two lines are stacked, the third unit should suppress enough offence to play at par, and the fourth line is missing a piece (Noah Philp) but I expect he’ll be along shortly.
It’s waiver day so you know I’m in a great mood! We’ll have all the news that’s fit to vocalize at noon, Sports 1440. Our guests will include Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN. We’ll chat about trade targets on defense and preseason records as a predictive tool for the regular season. Jason Gregor will drop in to talk Oilers, Elks, NFL weekend and MLB playoffs. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: Where does the 2024-25 Oilers opening-night roster rank in team history?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5822487/2024/10/07/oilers-roster-ranking-team-history/
The NCAA was slated to vote on allowing CHL players to play ins the league today but can’t find news of the results.
If approved as expected this will have a major impact on the NHL Draft.
A great explainer here:
https://thehockeywriters.com/ncaa-to-vote-on-chl-player-eligibility/
So with the cap structuring and Savoie on the opening night roster the Oilers now have a ‘performance bonus pool’.
Can that be used to cover Cory Perry’s bonus?
If so, that would be a solid piece of business.
Perry’s performance bonus will be included but this will not take away the cap penalty next season if the bonus vests and the Oilers don’t have room to fit it in.
This simply ensures that the bonus does not hit this year’s cap calculation if the team is over the cap in LTIR – it doesn’t effect any bonus overage calculations.
Yeah, my mistake. Thanks.
Some savvy maneuvering by the Oilers.
Ya, can anyone explain it in simple terms how the cap accrual works now, with a Kane LTIR?
Apparently with what they did today, they can accrue.
My limited understanding after reading Hart Levine tweets is that they will continue to accrue space daily moving fwd even with Kane on LTIR as long as they remain under the cap and not extending into the LTIR reserves.
The Coles notes version is:
-22 players totalling $83,374,947.00
-add Kane $5,125,000.00
equals $88,499,947.00 with a 23 man roster and $53 UNDER the cap-this roster was submitted to the league
The Oilers then declare that they are putting Kane on LTIR, and the league calculates their reserve pool including bonus ($5,125,000 minus the $53 so a LTIR reserve of $5,124,947.00 – this amount the Oilers have access to if/when they go OVER the cap)
Because they are UNDER the cap (and subsequently will return Cam Wright to the AHL), they gain his salary $952,000 as cap space as well, so they have $952,053 dollars of cap space on day 1 and will accrue daily until the roster needs changing ie:injuries/trades/demotions/signings(Dermott)
They’ll gain Savoie’s salary too when they return him to the Condor. So, $952,000 + $887k will equal around $1.8M worth of cap space less whatever Dermott signs for.
yes, it’ll be Dermott in and Savoie out and a 22 man roster until injuries etc etc
my bad
my math was based on a cap of $88,500,000- not sure why I thought that but I may have been high at the time
The cap is $88,000,000
The premise is still accurate however, just subtract $500,000k from the total cap number- you get the point
Thanks, that’s a great explanation.
I’m not defending anyone for anything. But I’m damn tired of reading negative everything. Holland sucked. Bowman sucks. Jackson sucks. Blah blah blah.
Mistakes will always be made. You’d think we are still in the decade of darkness. How about some excitement for opening night Wednesday? We still have a damn good team
— people are allowed to be critical (or worse) about how Holland has no players under his tenure that play for the Oil, or that Bowman was not high on any list for GM or point out some massive fails already by remote-POHO, and still cheer our team.
— We certainly aren’t decade of darkness bad, but they didn’t have McDrai. Amd if you sift through the posts: most of the “sucking” had been identified as potential issues by some over the years. There’s some smart people here: fans to be sure but critical ones.
GOILERS!!!
If one is being critical of no players drafted playing for the Oil, should the same, if they are being honest, not acknowledge the players on the team the draft capital was used to acquire such as Henrique, Ekholm, Kulak, Podkolzin, Stecher
— different things can be true at the same time. But your examples don’t hold water.
— Henrique involved only picks. Ek was traded for Barrie and an AHLr. Kulak for draft picks and a guy drafted before Hollands tenure. Podz: just a draft pick same as Stretch.
— Suggesting that we don’t have D&D from his tenure because we traded away draft capital seems very charitable.
— It’s a better argument if we traded away actual D&D players. Oh my bad : he didn’t actually have any of those to trade.
— Whether those trades were good or not is another discussion. Holland did not D&D a single player on this roster. One ought to be critical of this, and not use weak counters.
— It’s a brutal indictment: quite confident that no other GM over 5 years had no D&D on their roster
I would suggest that no discounting the players on the roster acquired for draft picks and drafted prospects, in a discussion regarding drafting (and developing), provides an incomplete conversation.
From accounts, Schaeffer was a “must have” in the Ekholm trade.
There’s the thinking that the player has to climb above his competition and make the team, and then there’s the onus on team management to make room for a player who’s ready.
There was no winning for Lavoie. What a waste.
The Oilers never gave Lavoie a legitimate chance even when he was hitting the cover off of the ball in Bakersfield. No early season callup. No midseason callup. No late season callup. No callup when the team was winning. No callup when the team was losing.
They never gave him a legitimate trial. When he was up, only five or six minutes on the 4th line. Fill out the roster scrub. We don’t give a damn seeing if you can do anything.
If ripping the cover off the ball is what Lavoie has doing in the Bake, then I’m underwhelmed. He put up decent numbers. And that was after having the coaching staff down there call him out for lack of effort.
Samuel Fagamo potted 43 goals in 50 games last year … that ripping the cover off the ball. And he’s not on an NHL roster either.
I doubt Lavoie plays 50 games total in the NHL. His offense is not that special.
And he apparently doesn’t want to do the rest. Or not at an NHL level. We will soon see, Wegas loves the big with some kind of talent, speed not necessary
Lavoie was indeed ripping the cover off the ball to start last season in the AHL – he was bullying the league and got a call-up on merit.
After he was re-assigned back down, he never found that early season form. Yes, he scored 28 goals but he wasn’t a dominant player from shift to shift and his 5 on 5 offence was way down – he was reliant on the PP last season.
What you call “ripping the cover off the ball” I call a hot streak in the minors. Big deal. Lavoie is just another in a long line of highly over-rated prospects.
I stand by what I said … he’s not going to play 50 games in the NHL.
I can’t agree with your first sentence.
Lavoie has had many hot streaks in his AHL career his play in those first games last season prior to his call-up were on another level – he really was bullying the AHL at that time.
That’s a fair assessment, so why not trade him for something?
Trade him for what?
18 teams (I think) passed on him for free and chances are teams lower than Vegas in the claim order would also have passed on him.
With Lavoie gone we are basically down to Wanner and Akey making the roster on Hollands 5 year 25 million dollar watch. This has to be a record has any other team not have at least 1 roster player in a 5 year window. Maggie the monkey would have at least a couple or better.
— Put that way – stunning…
Two picks for Ekholm. If Poile knew Trotz was NOT going to blow it up, he never would have made the trade.
And frankly, I think Trotz should have blown it up. Unlike seemingly everyone else, I’m still not that impressed by Nashville. I think they’ll be good enough to squeak into the playoffs for the next few years. They’ll kind of be like Minnesota for the last few years. A proper rebuild might have given them a better ceiling.
I still think the buyout of Matt Duchene was crazy. I think Duchene is one of the best value contracts in the league with Dallas.
Plus LaChance, plus Berezkin, plus Jarventie (drafted player traded for him) plus Philp (signed by him as an undrafted)
Just yesterday I mentioned that Cam Weight was earning himself and NHL 2-way contract. I didn’t expect it quite so soon but well deserved. He was a most pleasant surprise in Bako last season and has had a strong camp and 2 games in Exhibition for Bako.
Wright.
The door slides a bit further open for Roby Jarventie.
Of course, not in the near term, maybe not even until next year depending on how quickly he can find his game but he’s moved up the depth chart for middle/bottom six winger with size and a shot.
I think this will become a savvy trade.
And Jarventie is probably a better fourth-line guy than Lavoie. Lavoie basically had to be a second-line guy or nothing. But we didn’t really have room for more second-line guys.
Lavoie’s a guy who could probably put up 20-20-40 on the second line in San Jose, with a plus-minus of -30. Is he a guy who can play on a fourth line on a Stanley Cup team? No. And Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown are those guys.
Lavoie’s ceiling is Mike Hoffman.
I actually think 3LW with Henrique would have been a great place for Lavoie.
So it looks like the Oilers are going to place Kane on LTIR and set their LTIR salary and bonus pools (i.e. get as close to the cap as possible including Savoie on the roster) and then, even thought Kane is on LTIR, given they are below the $88.5MM cap and not using those reserves, they will be able to accrue cap space.
Probably why Brown is on roster, to get as close to the cap as possible to maximize the reserves.
I think Savoie and Brown will be re-assigned tomorrow.
So they’ll try to get as close as possible to the cap then what?
Yes, they signed Cam Wright to a $952K NHL contract and which gives them $53 dollars of cap space!
They will surely put Kane on LTIR, freezing their cap ceiling at $87,999,947. Then they reassign Savoie & Wright to the Condors, opening cap space of $886,666 + $952,000= $1,838,666 add in Kanes cap hit of $5,125,000 and they’ve got about $7M in cap space. Interesting.
I wonder if Pronger would come back for one last run at Stanley. Let’s make it happen Action Jackson.
The opening cap space will be reduced by whatever Dermott signs for.
I wouldn’t be spending Kane’s cap space quite yet – they are a long ways away from him being out for the entire regular season. Also, they can’t accrue and use the LTIR reserves – they can accrue, spend the unused cap space and then the LTIR reserves though.
But they could spend Kane’s cap space if the right guy becomes available for the right price.
They could, yes, but I don’t think that is the current plan at all.
Brown isn’t on the roster.
Wasn’t the messaging all along that the Oilers didn’t want to be in LTIR? That this isn’t ideal?
They are simply setting their LTIR reserves – effectively setting the amount they can go over the cap if they ever want to use the LTIR reserves.
While Kane will be on LTIR, they won’t be using the LTIR reserves to start so it will be business as usual being under the cap and they will accrue the cap space.
Ah, understood. Thanks.
Calling Savoie up has to mean they are planning on setting their LTIR pools including the bonus reserve. If they are doing that Brown likely stays on roster to get as close to the cap as possible to maximize. They can send those two down after and would then have a cap ton of cap space and I think they might be able to accrue if not over the $88.5MM cap even if Kane is in LtIR
They also called up Cameron Wright to get within $53 of the salary cap.
After signing him to a 2 way NHL deal for the very specific sum of 952k. Happy for him, well deserved!
Glad to see that young fellow get the contract.
From the ECHL to this contract the kid must be beaming wth accomplishment.
Why didn’t they just keep Lavoie up for the same reason OP?
Not saying I know they should of kept him, just makes me wonder when Vegas obviously sees something.
Edit- the bonus right? Is that why?
Savoie needed be called up to set the bonus reserve pool.
They could have kept Lavoie as part of trying to get as close to the cap as possible but, instead, they signed Cam Wright to $952K to put them within $53 of the cap – Lavoie didn’t make enough to maximize the cap/LTIR structuring – lol
I also presume they thought they were more likely to slide Lavoie through today than tomorrow.
There is a chance Lavoie is back on waivers very soon – Stauff is saying that Vegas might not have thought they’d have two successful claims….
OK interesting. Thanks for helping me understand. Totally makes sense now.
I like the Wright signing, I was expecting them to sign him last year.
At least Holt doesn’t have to deal with calling Savoie to Lavoie all year. Could see that being rather tongue twisting.
They weren’t expecting Lavoie to get claimed.
Maybe but they’re smart enough to know it was possible. If they REALLY wanted to keep him, it wouldn’t of happened.
Yeah, they’re smart alright.
Having Savoie on the opening night roster allows the Oilers a performance bonus LTIR pool of $1M. As you said they won’t have to pay Savoie’s bonus so he only counts for $886,666 against the cap.
I’m glad for Lavoie but pissed that they again got nothing for a higher pick used. Has to stop, no more bleeding out
I imagine Lavoie is thrilled today.
Vegas has a few more attractions than Bakersfield.
It’s horrible asset management. You can say they are unlucky, but are they really? To me it’s a pattern of mismanagement. If you are going to slow play these kids to the point that they don’t want to stay, at least know when it’s time to cash them in via trade for something in return.
For sure, it was no secret that Broberg and Lavoie were both unhappy with their lack of opportunity, and Holloway’s comments around contract negotiations with the Oilers is telling
Another poor move by our crap management team! If they didn’t want him why not waive Perry,and keep Lavoie.At least then they could have got a draft pick for him.Same old crap…..add Lavoie to Broberg,Holloway,and many other picks given away for nothing!
He was Holland pick he must of pissed in someone’s cornflakes because he was treated like he had leprosy.
They didn’t like him much after he signed his Qualifying offer last year.
The #MNWild signed 21 y/o G Jesper Wallstedt to 2 year $2.2M Cap Hit extension starting 25-26
https://x.com/puckpedia/status/1843380171648446904?s=61
Year 1 $2.4M
Year 2 $2.0M
On expiry, will be RFA with $2M Qualifying Offer
Just dismal. Good teams lock up their talent to long term deals. The Wild just reverse Unoed themselves by signing Jesper “Patrick Roy” Wallstedt to a bridge deal.
He is just 21 and hasn’t established himself yet.
Goaltenders take longer.
Knight to king five.
Has played a total of 3 games in the NHL.
He will likely be the backup in 25/26 when MAF retires.
The Wild didn’t atttempt to grind him down to $1 million like the Oilers attempted to do with Broberg and Holloway. They paid him on expected performance, and did it early.
Yep..they paid him enough to show their faith in him a year before they had to.
As the massive Parise/Suter dead cap fades, I expect the Wild will surge.
He should be a Oiler as he was sitting on a platter for us.
This was the biggest miss IMO. Rodrigue is decent but I’d rather have another strong option in house if Skinner wants Swayman money one day.
Rodrique looks like he’s scared of the puck not a good quality to have if your a goalie.
Rodrique has a two year track record of solid AHL play. Judging him off of one preseason game, or preseason when the team and the defense in front of him was disinterested and/or a tire fire is rather harsh.
Yeah I wouldn’t over react to that game either. Skinner looked awful in his first few NHL games too. But having Rodrigue and Walstedt in the system would leave me with greater confidence that a successor to Skinner was in house, should Skinners next deal (all UFA years btw) be unaffordable cap wise.
Even if Holland didn’t want him he could of drafted him for a trade. The value of Walstedt the moment he was picked was 3 fold Bourgault value. A possible franchise goalie that was sitting there was a gift from above. What the hell was Wright thinking no wonder he’s kicking rocks down the road instead of scouting for a top 5 team in the league.
He’s not a kid anymore he looked terrible in the preseason I thought he was ready to play a few games this year. If I’m the Coach this guy is not seeing a game this year until he tears the cover off in the A.H.L
Eemil Vinni.
There must be a Wild fan forum to discuss theIr players on
I think Jeff Skinner was a mistake. He’ll be fine as long as the team is fine. An early slump and he”ll quickly be a whipping boy. Same as every where else he played.
Watching him here in Buffalo it was the same thing with three coaches. Doghouse, luckily they kept firing the coach so he was afforded many prime opportunities. Yes, I know he was a good five on five scorer. He won’t be the highest paid or highest profile player here like he was in Buffalo, no floating. Again, he will be fine as long as the team is fine.
Bad move, rather have Broberg.
Yeah unnecessarily risky bet IMO. At least it’s a year
More than a year, because Broberg and Holloway are in St. Louis, and Desharnais is in Vancouver.
The Oilers could have paid for all three with Skinner’s money.
Anyone doghousing this guy doesn’t know how to watch hockey.
https://youtu.be/mF7XcJ2JNVM?si=47EOAiiOGgtRY17m
Everybody talks about Skinner’s skating, but boy do I see a guy who can shoot the puck. Wow – an elite finisher.
Also, love those Sabres black-and-red retro unis. The best of the ’90s uniforms.
Skinner is a stone cold goal scorer that we haven’t seen since forever. I do believe he’ll end up with Connor who will give Skinner a bushel full of open looks.
I’m truly shocked at posters slagging this signing.
I don’t consider it a slag, just think it might be a mistake.
Skinner is not a perfect player for sure. He the biggest problem the Oilers had last playoffs was finishing. Skinner can finish. So can Arvidsson. Give the contracts I’m not sure what else they could have done to help that without rolling the dice on unproven players
Once Bro signed that sheet no way they could keep him without a major trade. And it’s still risky because he will be getting paid a lot in two years, but nobody knows where he shakes out. Big and fast doesn’t guarantee anything
Signing a forward to a 1 year value deal has nothing to do with a RFA diva defender that’s been working on getting his way out of town for a few seasons now.
Nothing is done in isolation with a hard cap.
On the Oil Drop they actually were really surprised they got Skinner. They did not have the most money on the table at all and didn’t expect that signing. Weird situation like they had to know if he signed they were screwed out of Bro.
The Lavoie meltdown is in full effect I see…
I don’t subscribe to this panic. At all. You could sign 10 of him.
What I will mention is that this is exactly why I advocate for trading prospects that don’t show a serious spark early. Always.
The Oilers were in danger of becoming old and slow before this offseason. They’ve lost three of their top recent picks, of which they’ve had very few to begin with.
I wouldn’t say its time to panic but the danger is real.
Same old shit!
Lavoie is exaclty the type of player that will randomly score 20 goals on an expansion team given lots of PP time but end up as a -30 and will have a lot of outrage when realistically he was never going to get a top-six opportunity here because he wasn’t going to be better than any other option.
He’s exactly to type of player you find on waivers
…which is what makes it even weirder that Vegas picked him up.
San Jose, Anaheim, Columbus would have made more sense.
I’m not overly concerned that they lost Lavoie. He wasn’t going to move the needle anyway. The problem I have is the trend that is emerging of the Oilers mismanaging prospects to the point of losing them via offer sheets and waivers, for almost nothing in return
Its just a poor way to manage a team if you hope to extend the winning window
Broberg and Holloway are both severely overpaid while putting St.Louis into difficult conversations with their own Rfa’s for years to come.
If veteran professional players keep signing value deals during the duration of McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s contracts they’ll be in the winning window until retirement.
Enjoy the ride.
If Holloway plays in the top 9 he is NOT overpaid.
The Blues have Broberg playing 2LD.
If he succeeds, he is underpaid.
I don’t disagree, but have to stop losing these guys for nothing or next to nothing. Make a trade
Thomas and Kyrou got paid. Buchnevich got paid. All they have to worry about in the near future is Neighbours, and they will easily have the money to do that. The rest of the young guys are years away. Bolduc is starting in the AHL. Devorsky is on the 1st year of his entry level in the AHL. Their other and many high end prospects are still in college or Europe.
Broberg and Holloway filled a gap between their current players and the ones who are still a couple of years away.
I’ll take Podkolzin scoring more goals then Holloway in the next 2 years.
This is what ‘going all in’ looks like. Remember when folks were crying about the team needing to maximize the best years of McDrai? This is it. On the other hand I like watching the “Lowetide Journey”. Watching young players get drafted, develop, hit the NHL and make their dreams come true while I get to see my team win Stanley. But seeing these young players blocked and traded for the NOW is the way of the cap, especially when your team is built around generational talents. We wait. With nails chewed and beer in hand. Until Stanley is raised in triumph.
Ryan and Perry is definitely not what “going all in” looks like. Neither is the mismanagement of the Holloway and Broberg contracts. Getting rid of Ceci was the right move. I am glad that I will never have to see the Nurse-Ceci pairing ever again – except in nightmares. But it’s still one step forward and two steps back. We’ll see what the trade deadline looks like with this cap saving strategy and no first round pick. I am prepared to be underwhelmed. As for raising Stanley, everything has to go perfectly, especially on D and in goal. I don’t think either is championship quality. There is a good chance that McDavid never sees it happen in EDM.
I appreciate your take and your nom de keyboard. Cheers.
Ryan is a stop gap to give Philip some bigger minutes for a while in Bakersfield and will spend a decent number of games eating popcorn.
Perry is there to provide some filth
There will be at least one bottom 6 addition at trade deadline, Kane remains a possibility later on although I personally doubt it and Philp will be on the roster for last 50 games
What I’m getting at is the bottom 6 is going to look very very different at trade deadline
You don’t think Kane will recover by deadline or later?
They might want to send Klim Kostin in to fix that Sports Hernia.
“Both Lavoie and Schwindt figure to battle for playing time on Vegas’ fourth line with Keegan Kolesar and Brett Howden. If the Golden Knights want to send either player to the AHL, they’ll both have to go through waivers again.”
https://oilersnation.com/news/golden-knights-claim-raphael-lavoie-off-waivers-from-oilers?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
After looking at the VGK depth on the wings. I wonder if Lavoie can crack their roster.
They lost Aston-Reese to waivers who is probably a more useful player than Lavoie.
He’ll most likely be coming back to Edmonton anyway. LOL
1.Oh come on. Losing Raphael Lavoie is not like losing Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo.
2.Every team overvalues their own prospects. Especially those of us on a blog that specialized in prospects. Lavoie wasn’t even listed in Pronman’s top 10 potential waiver wire pickups.
3.You take chances on waivers, and 98% of the time there’s nothing to worry about. This was mostly just bad luck. Chances were that we were eventually going to end up trading him for a 5th round pick anyways.
4.If we’re so convinced that Lavoie’s 28 AHL goals really meant something, we could have picked up Adam Gaudette on waivers (44 AHL goals last year). Neither player is well-rounded, but Gaudette is a better scorer.
5.This happened because we have forward depth that’s the envy of the league. You can knock Perry’s slow boots all you want, but he’s the kind of guy that’s proven to get you to a Stanley Cup Final. Lots of other teams would love to have him on their 3rd line, and we’ve got him on our 4th. He’s a gamer, especially come playoff time.
Losing Lavoie, Broberg, and Holloway in the same offseason for a few draft picks is stunningly poor asset management. As bad or worse than the Reinhart trade.
Yeah. I guess someone would have given them a 6th round pick for him.
Oilers almost always draft players with a major defect in their game. I am more upset at the fact that they drafted a guy with slow boots. And while McCleod could skate like the wind, he was afraid of contact, which they also knew. On ice intellect is a thing that, in past, has seemed to also elude Oil drafting gurus. I really hope they crap together.
I agree and gave commented about that
100%. In a vacuum losing Lavoie wouldn’t be the end of the world, but it’s part of an appalling trend of Bowman giving young assets away for pennies on the dollar or nothing at all, when we already had one of the shallowest prospect pools in the league going into the offseason.
Bowman has a trend established already? I like Ralph but he’s clearly aging out of the prospect group and entering the wort filled roam of 4th line and career AHL group of players.
Sucks he went to a team that I wouldn’t spit on to save from a fire.
In a vacuum, Broberg and Holloway were given away for pennies on the dollar but, practically, a player’s value is vis-a-vis his cap hit and both of those players have marked reduced value when they signed their offer sheets for more the double and triple their market values.
Anyone blaming Bowman or JJ about losing the prospects is blaming the wrong group. This is clean up in aisle 3. Maybe they tried moving Lavoie, but it wouldn’t be easy unless someone wanted him in particular, wait for waivers
If it keeps happening no bueno, but what we have seen overall is orders of magnitude better than Holland
There is no trade value for Lavoie – 18 teams passed on him and, given the teams behind Vegas in the waiver claim order, they were likely the only team.
We just gave away Lavoie, Broberg and Holloway for draft picks and nothing and we have Perry, Ryan and Stecher on the opening roster.
AND
Brown and Janmark signed for the next years.
Good for Lavoie, he will be a good fit on that team. Going to a great organization.
Or maybe they have amongst the worst forward depth amongst playoff bubble teams?
What would that, even if true, have anything to do with my comment?
Sid
@NHL_Sid
·
2h
I’m not sure Lavoie will amount to much, but losing him so that we can keep a 40-year-old Corey Perry seems foolish.
I would have matched Holloway.
https://x.com/puckpedia/status/1843353246368444660?s=61
Waiver claims:
Aston-Reese from VGK to CBJ
Reimer from BUF to ANA
Patera from BOS to VAN
Schwindt from CGY to VGK
Lavoie from EDM to VGK
Everyone else cleared
I apologize I had him going to the Habs or Sens. The Vegas scouts must of seen him good in the A.H.L to warrant this pick-up. Lavoie finally will get a opportunity as Podkolzin was the last nail in his coffin in Edmonton.
Definitely have to question the asset management. There is being in the”Championship Window” and also proper asset management.
Make a trade.
Nothing to really question … it’s pretty piss poor.
Seravalli’s 32 thoughts are..uhh.. something else:
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/32-bold-predictions-oilers-will-finally-end-canadas-stanley-cup-drought
“14. With a little help from Gaudreau in heaven, the Columbus Blue Jackets will win the 2025 Draft Lottery. It’s the only consolation prize on a brutal year, but hope and help is on the way. Bananas that the Blue Jackets have never won the Lottery.”
Wow just wow.
They removed it now. My goodness.
The first version before the edit was also something else:
Originally it was:
“With a little help from Gaudreau, the Columbus Blue Jackets will win the 2025 Draft Lottery.
…”
Terrible all around.
Knights claim Lavoie.
Good opportunity for the player – lets see if the Knights keep him on their roster for the season or if he’s re-waived.
What is with this management team? Sign an old and further deteriorating Perry and lose Lavoie for nothing.
The organization thinks that Perry gives them a better chance to win this season – maybe they are right, maybe not.
Lets see how long the Knights keep him on their roster.
They must have a crappy roster if they claim two players off waivers.
They probably would have claimed Derek Ryan and Cory Perry if they had the chance.
Typical Oilers.
Also: typical Oilers fans catastrophizing the loss of a 24 year old tweener with was an offensive player with no NHL points (who is not a center and who cannot kill penalties)
Just brutal.
Oilers lose a top prospect so they can keep 400 year old Ryan on the opening night roster.
Short term the team is better but the loss of young talent this offseason is going to haunt this team over the next 10 years. It is like Reinhart trade redux.
Lavoie was Hollands pick once Bowman picked up his man Podkolzin that was the end of Lavoie. Lavoie should of been given a honest opportunity but Holland kept blocking his own pick with old Vets that were less maintenance.
This team is frustrating!!
cupboards get MOAR bare.
Who comes up when the old guys break?
a 20 yr old??;
Philp for sure, maybe Savoie, Hamblin, Caggiula, Pederson, maybe Jarventie when ready. It’s not the end of the world.
Yes Philp of course. He is already slated to be on the team from what I see. I am thinking more about wingers. My guess, the call up for W for injuries / the Metamucil isn’t kicking in will be 20 yr old Savoie and if he isn’t working out so well we can have Caggiula back with the team. I would rather have Lavoie right now so Savoie can develop some more and we are not downgrading. It is not the end of the world.
Podkolzin also made the team and was in direct competition with Lavoie.
Podz is a better all-around player than Lavoie.
I don’t mind Skinner at 3LW at all. In thinking about the Savoie question, I felt like if he lights fire to the AHL and gets a call-up, Skinner’s spot on the Draisaitl line could be a great spot for him.
Not only that, but Henrique is not your average 3C. He’s more of a 2C who just happens to be playing down because of the depth at the top of the roster. Same for Brown. This guy had a tough year while recovering from injury last season, but was a bonafide top 6 forward up to that point, and showed that during the playoffs.
Wonder why the short rope with Skinner? He is a proven top even strength scorer in this league over many years. Janmark is a proven depth, mostly fourth line player.
Realize Skinner didn’t light the world on fire in exhibition, but his line only had 1 game and a bit together the entire time. A little patience and benefit of the doubt is in order in my opinion
Very strange how the coach is handling his new second line so far
Maybe a little message?
@DNBsports
Knoblauch said this was more about having flexibility and options. He said Skinner could be back with Draisaitl at practice tomorrow.
I think Skinner will mesh better with McDavid if this two have chemistry look out N.H.L
Practice lines today have Janmark with Drai and Arvidsson and Skinner with Henrique and Brown.
I do not like that. I would swap Skinner with Nuge, if anything.
DNBSports
Jeff Skinner in the bottom six to start Oilers practice. Mattias Janmark up.
Light a fire under Skinner’s butt.
This team does not need a 06 Lowe deadline.
Mostly goalie ✅
Complete top 9 ✅
What they need is a right handed Ekholm deadline, which may be over the top depending on how young Emberson’s play holds up.
Maybe just a right handed Kulak.
Ty Emberson has come as advertised in the exhibition season – a very strong defender who closes gaps, has great positioning and a very good stick.
He gave up so very little at evens in exhibition. 65% metrics across the board including an expected goal share over 70%.
Yup, just exhibition but, for me, he has furthered the hope he can be a legit 2RD. I don’t understand those that have his arrows down based on exhibition – he defended so very well.
I think the whole team has been given down arrows and some people are still upset that they didn’t go whale hunting
Lots of folks are still pissed because Holland was a lame duck the minute Wright was canned. I do think this new management will have a better development path for the youngsters. It’s all about the crest for me if they sign McDavid and Bouchard we are in for a ten year run of 10th or better
Spec reporting that the Oilers did not submit any waiver claims yesterday. No surprise at all (at least to me) that no external add is coming today.
I think this will lock in the Dermott signing at some point. I presume in the next couple of hours to days but perhaps they want until they actually want to play him – keep him off the roster until then – would kind of be a dick move to the player so I doubt that.
So, if they sign Dermott to league minimum that leaves them with just over a million in cap space. How much does that accrue daily?
I think it would be closer to $1.2MM and, if there were no changes through the season, that would give them close to $5.5MM at the deadline (rough math).
Of course, no changes is not feasible.
You go through the league and there are so few established RHD potentially available. The list is pretty damn short:
Pionk (pending UFA but WPG obviously tries to resign)
Andersson (CGY unlikely to deal with us)
Ristolainen (checks a lot of boxes but has he turned a corner?)
That’s the list if we are talking about being reasonably available. Everyone else is unavailable or 3rd pair. Sure Zub would be nice but why would OTT trade him? Build JJ a statue if he can pull that off.
This is why Emberson is such a big deal. If he can hang with Nurse on the 2nd pair it is absolutely massive. Could be a franchise altering trade if it works out. Wouldn’t mind another big Bobby Clobber on the 3rd pair either but maybe Brown can fill that role (yeah I know unlikely).
I would suggest the Oilers will continue to search for less established RHD’s along the lines of Ty Emberson. They tend to be less expensive. And there’s more of them around the league.
Sure but how many more 3/4 RHD do we need? We already have Stecher, Dermott, Brown, Kemp. Draft and develop is the way to go. Still unhappy we dealt Kesselring for peanuts.
Huge opportunity for Emberson and the team if he can fill that 2RD slot beside Nurse. Main storyline of the early season.
Emberson has looked good. He can either fill in beside Nurse or Kulak depending on if they need to further upgrade 2RD. So, it remains to be seen if they need a 2RD, or 3RD. Stecher & Dermott (if signed) are good insurance for the time being. They seem to be in an alright position, and they have a whole season to sort things out.
There are unexpected defencemen who become available every year. No need to start narrowing things down right now.
You can also always go out and make a hockey trade if that’s necessary.
Looking out too far ahead.
Yeah exactly this. Who had Ekholm as an available trade target when we got him?
My point is that the options are very limited. Plus how many “Ekholms” are traded every year. Very rare. Whatever dumb stuff Holland did this trade was franchise altering.
So yes you can make a hockey trade – but what does that look like? You can go down to hfboards and find all sorts of ridiculous trade proposals. Put some names down and we can have a conversation. Otherwise you are conjuring unicorns as a solution.
Utah has an abundance of RHD. Durzi would be really nice. They also have two guys named Kesselring and Marino.
None of those guys (including Marino) moves the needle for us at 2RD. All traded before (Marino twice) for a reason.
IMHO the Emberson gambit was a very sharp piece of work (thanks Rosie) which could make this discussion mute. Fingers crossed for the guy as Emberson working out would be massive.
Will Borgen is an option.
Risto is not a 2RHD anymore. Please look at his toi. Huge red flag. Plus a bad contract.
Borgen is 3rd pair. Risto was sick and injured until mid-year so TOI is simply an indicator of that. Not saying he has turned it around – just saying there are signs.
Brown didn’t show as well as they expected, he may recover some game yet. They wanted boxing out and size, maybe he was too nervous at camp
— With all due respect to Brown v Stetcher or which guy is going to be the 14th F or of so and so should have earned a spot on the roster there are a few things that exponentially more important to the results this year that barely have been discussed:
— Not in any order but this is the stuff that matters that no one asks or surmises:
1) Is this team better prepared than the one that got blown out 8-1 and clearly had just awful lines of communication from day 1 and woefully ill equipped and poor execution
2) What have the players and coaching learned? What specifically has been different about this pre-season that might better prepare them for next season? Is third coach a charm?
3) Will McDavid score more than 2 goals in the first 11 games. What has he learned and doing different to be more effective out of the gate (or injured etc)
4) How committed is the team to McDrai on seperate lines. No ifs and or buts this time
5) what has Skinner learned or done differently so that he isn’t the worst goalie in the league for the 1st 2 months with a .870 sv%
6) How is Nurse going to do with an unestablished partner and a sub-optimal preparation
7) How are they planning on handling the G: or will they just ride Skinner hard because.
— A bunch more but I think to focus ought to shed some light on opinions and thoughts on these things that matter way more.
— An ode to the Honeymoon Suite reference yesterday :
Dear oil :
why must I always say it again.
It’s a new season now,
I got a new same team now.
And she’s a lot like the last year. A lot like you. just like you.
People talk about what people want to talk about. I do think you’ve brought up great points, but the newest news always rules the day. IF McDavid scores two goals in his first 11 games this fall, it’ll be front and center.
— True. I’m just wondering what people think about some of these other things before the season starts that have far greater ramifications for this team?
— Is it just random that our teams don’t show up ready, and coaches have to get fired?
— The media could ask some of these questions : “coach, your the third one in The last 3 years. What specifically have you and management done to look back in the last three years to figure out why the team isn’t prepared? What to the vets say? How is your approach different now that you had an off season?”
— People talk about what they want to : but some really hard questions haven’t been talked about IMO.
— I will let myself out now, with more can-con. Some of these topics are “Situation Critical”
— seriously I’m leaving. “Don’t forget me when I’m gone”.
Very true. You should start a blog. I bet it would be interesting.
— I’ll stay in my lane! I get the hint.
— I’m a strange animal. That’s what I know
I wasn’t hinting. I meant it. I was sincere. I am not in any way offended by what you said. Your posts today are worth discussion. I’m sorry if you thought I was being insincere, it was not my intent.
1. Coach isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel
2. It’s a veteran group, none of them have banked thoughts about last preseason.
3. McDavid hopefully doesn’t have a bummed wrist. He scored a hat trick to start off the previous season if my memory is correct.
4. McDrai will always be a thing at times, they’ve brought in 2 top wingers to mix in. Seems like a commitment if I’ve ever seen one.
5. His coach isn’t reinventing the wheel infront of him, they gave Jack the starters job both previous seasons to begin.
6. He’ll be fine if he’s not injured.
7. Skinner is the starter, their back up won a playoff game and saved the series.
The sky is in fact intact.
Great Post!
Understanding the ebb and flow of the competition is crucial in estimating the results of the good guys.
The ebb in the West and in particular the Pacific has been real and spectacular the last two seasons. The Canucks are ahead of where projections had them but L.A. Vegas and especially Calgary are markedly worse.
Head into the Central and mediocrity reigns supreme. Dallas is the cream of the crop. After that though. Nashville has revamped its approach, but only with guys on the wrong side of the age curve. The Jets are aging out, keep an eye on Schieffle’s decline this year. Colorado is the most top heavy team in the league. Utah and Minnesota have pieces but that’s it.
The West is in a pretty hard ebb right now. A conference of Bubble teams.
Also hard to make a case that anyone in the East got that much better defensively save Washington and the Devils.
Conversations around the 3rd and 4th lines should have this context close at hand. The Oilers don’t play last years Florida team in the SCF every night. For roughly 60% of their games they’ll be playing Western teams, 85% of which are worse than last year especially along their forward depth rankings.
Henrique has a knack for scoring, high shooting % over his whole career. I think its reasonable to suggest positive regression for the shooting % of his line-mates this year too. Or maybe the defense helps them out with a goal or five?
The bottom six will also get a 25 goal scorer back at some point in the last 3rd of the season.
Emberson is the wild card and I will admit to coming around. Big risk, but I like it.
Folks are underselling Skinner and Arviddson. You can tack on >150 more shots from the top six this year to last. I betcha the zone time element is going to swing hard + for that 2nd line too. Less defending overall.
The Oilers are easily the best team in the NHL this year.
Matt Savoie has been wonderful in the 2 exhibition games – a standout in a lineup of at least half ECHL players.
He’s looked good with Cam Wright and I wonder if they play together during the regular season. I would think Hamblin or Pederson will be the center.
They may even want to play Savoie with Philp. Would make sense to me. They could develop some chemistry together in Bakersfield. Then they could form a line with Kane, if he returns in time for the playoffs. But who knows?
Because it sounds like Philp might be in the Bake for a while, since they want to take advantage of all that cap space and accrue as much as possible.
My expectations for Savoie are for him to be on the Oilers’ roster by the playoffs. That means success (>0.8 pts/gm) in a short to mid-length stint in Bakersfield.
Skinner McDavid Hyman
Nuge Draisaitl Arvidsson
Kane* Henrique Savoie
Janmark Philp/Acq. Brown
That is a stacked forward group. Need to see who Philp gets along on the PK in both the AHL and NHL. Philp should be getting #1 PK duties with the Condors.
Podkolzin might fit in well in the playoffs too. I could see a winger combo with Kane & Podz. I still think Savoie is going to need to get stronger.
This is an amazing forward group. You could swap Acq. with Savoie if he doesn’t develop as per your expectations.
If you are right that Savoie, Philp and Kane are all on the roster come playoff time, we may just need to get a decent 2RD at the deadline and then Bob’s your uncle.
I think this is exactly what happens but there is a 5% chance they are waiting to see if anybody else comes available through the waiver wire before putting ink to paper.
I was expecting them to sign Dermott over the weekend so I find it a little bit strange that nothing has been announced just yet.
I’ll probably post this and see that the announcement was made while I was typing. 🥸
Instead of signing Dermott, wouldn’t it be better to keep paying him on a PTO, keep him with the team, accrue cap space, and then when he is needed in 2-4 weeks, sign him then?
That might work if he doesn’t get offered an NHL contract from someone else or even a solid European offer. For Dermott it’s like musical chairs and he might not want to wait to see if there are enough chairs when the music stops.
PTO’s are peanuts compared to even a league minimum contract. Even waiting just 2 weeks, Dermott is giving up close to $60,000 in gross salary. And if the Oilers try and pay him the full amount from the start of the contract 2 weeks in, it would gross up the cap hit.
Is that a little hyperbole?
That bar would mean the equivalent of a #1 goalie (Roloson), top 6 forward (Samsonov) 3rd pair D (Tarnstrom), and arguably a top 4 D (Spacek), though he was slightly ahead of the deadline.
I agree one strong deadline add will be needed, but Lowe 2006 would involve 2-3 adds to the core 12 spots.
Point taken on hyperbole but I’d take a Lowe 06 deadline 10 times outta 10. Can never be too good. I think the equivalent would be an Andersson Weegar-esque trade where the impossible suddenly becomes possible.
Sure, more is better, but deadline additions aren’t free either.
I was thinking a Holland 2023 deadline might be more the hope.
The D wouldn’t need to be at Ekholm levels, but adding the difference to Bjugstad would give you quite a nice forward.
Beat me to it. They need a top 4 RHD and some 4th line muscle with a bit of skill (Kostin). Needs may change over the next few months but 2RD is the only critical need for now.
This team is closer than the team in 2006. This team already has their goalie and their top six is exceptional. They sure could use today’s versions of Tarnstrom & Spacek though.
Bakersfield is an interesting town. In many ways, similar to a number of oil towns in Alberta. But hot as hell. One of my sons lived in Santa Barbara for awhile and I would go visit. We would drive across the pass and the difference in weather is astonishing. 20C to 40C in 10 miles! Some absolutely incredible dive bars/classic saloons, really nice people. And of course, Buck Owens! My Heart Skips a Beat! And the immortal Dwight Yoakam! 1000 Miles From Nowhere!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tu3ypuKq8WE
And how about both Buck and Dwight in “Streets of Bakersfield”
My dream.
I might have misunderstood your response but just in case; on Dwight’s single/album song “Streets…” Buck is singing with him.
I spent many, many weeks in and around Bakersfield from 2000 – 2014 (oil patch). You are right about the people. The issue is pollution – most polluted city in the USA wrt air quality. A very strange place to put a group of professional athletes. When you fly in all you see is a brown layer of yuck until you get through it. The place to live is Tehachapi which is about a 1/2 drive up into the mountains, sits at 3900′ and is above the smog clouds.
Did Dwight do his own stunts!
My friend – ‘interesting’ may be too polite a term for Bakersfield. My theory is that the Oilers put their AHL team there to increase the incentive for players to work their butts off to make it to the NHL.
That said, the people were definitely nice as you mentioned. They are especially nice for those of us who have lived/worked in the Big Apple and are comparing them to New Yorkers. 🙂
I spent a few days there in January watching a couple Condors games. I’m not a country music fan but I did pop my head into the Buck Owens museum.
It’s not that bad! New Yorkers are better now than the past! I felt the folks of Bakersfield are pretty nice!
I’m a classic rock guy but equate country girls with catholic girls! Lots of fun but do not get on their bad side!
Ha! That’s a great line about country and catholic girls.
Classic rock rules! (At least for us old farts).