Remember how you felt in summer? The Oilers had just delivered a frenzied run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. That made last year’s team one of only eight in franchise history to reach that number. It was a major accomplishment and could be the highest heights reached by this generation of Edmonton Oilers.
No one wants to think about that possibility, and I get it. However, winning Stanley has never been more difficult and there are many other teams who can bring home a championship. Back when I was a kid, there were maybe five clubs you could look to for a Stanley. Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers, New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks and maybe the Buffalo Sabres. That was (iirc) the list in 1974, and a few years later the New York Islanders, Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota North Stars jumped in to contention as some of the original six teams began to fade.
This year? I think there’s far more than five. How many? It might be 10.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 0-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 0-1-0
There’s no reason to panic, but if the Oilers get fed again tonight and offer little pushback, we’re going to see more than a shuffle of the defensive pairings. This year’s schedule is inviting at the start, specifically the next two games but there’s some opportunities throughout October for a hungry team. Is that the Oilers? We’ll find out tonight.
POSSIBLE LINEUP FOR EDMONTON
Tony Brar tweeted out the lines and pairings yesterday and there’s a small tweak. Connor McDavid is with Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl is flanked by Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson and the third line remains Adam Henrique at pivot with Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. Vasily Podkolzin with Derek Ryan and Corey Perry also remains intact.
On defense, Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are the keys on the top pair. Darnell Nurse is now with Travis Dermott and Brett Kulak with Ty Emberson is the other pairing. Stuart Skinner starts.
I have a couple of things to say about the handling of the second pair. I am encouraged by the organization’s slow-playing of Darnell Nurse in an effort to make sure he was healthy before getting his season underway. I do think some of the chaos in Game 1 came from a combination of rust and having a new partner. I’m not against the check down on Emberson to the third pair, especially if it’s short term. As I mention in The Athletic piece above, the Nurse-Emberson duo had less than 15 minutes together five-on-five during the preseason.
The smart play is to fade Nurse and make his pair the third unit until he’s back to being his normal self. That might be tonight, but I think a reset is in order in terms of qual comp and a month of the soft parade may be in order. I know some of you will be mad about the idea, and mention the cap hit, but that’s a sunk cost that isn’t going anywhere and the coach owes it to his players to deploy the roster in an optimal fashion.
Finally, a word about Stuart Skinner. One poor outing and there’s blood in the streets up to my ankles, blood in the streets up to my knees, blood in the streets, here comes Chicago. In trying times like these, I like to look at five-on-five save percentage for starting goaltenders and I like to look at a large sample. So, among goaltenders who I consider regulars over the last two seasons combined, Skinner’s .920 save percentage ranks No. 12 overall.
So, you do you, but I would remind you that Skinner saved this team when Jack Campbell couldn’t get the job done and he did it two years in a row. I’m on Team Nurse and on Team Skinner. One game is the smallest possible sample. One game! If both men prove incapable of delivering this year, then Stan Bowman will need to replace them. I think 20 games is about right, don’t you? Maybe 20 healthy games with no rust for Nurse so that might stretch to 25.
From DNB
Expected Oilers lineup vs. CHI:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Dermott
Kulak-Emberson
Stecher
Pickard
Skinner
For me at some point it becomes about critical errors. Aggregate stats give us guide posts and a way to compare, but they hide these. Vic Ferrari and Woodguy when he put up stats here (Hi Woodguy!) always reminded us that the numbers need to be viewed with context, to help define what they are saying, if anything
At the end of the day critical errors are what determine a player’s ceiling. Stu is a good NHL goalie we can say based on some of his results compared to others. But, and it’s a big one for me, he lets in shots he should save, regularly. He did it in SCF Game 7. The other guy didn’t, that’s often what it comes down to
Until he gets the technical and read mistakes settled to me he’s a mid level starter, perhaps a 1B. Here are stats that back this line of thinking:
2022-2024 (2 seasons) 5v5 over 2400 min
Shots Against/60 + Ranking, SV% + Ranking:
Skinner 27.94 38th – .920 tied 12th
All of the goalies with a higher SV% saw more rubber
2023-2024 5v5 1200 min (Knoblauch era, taking out ‘the start’ to be generous)
Skinner
26.03 47th – .913 tied 26th
Again all of the higher SV% saw more rubber. Stu had defensive support at a higher level than most
I’m not trashing Stu, but he has not established as a top goalie to me. For Canadians Binnington Montembeault and Ingram all had better results on worse teams
2023-2024 5v5 1200 min
HD SV/60, HDSV%
Skinner
5.34 39th – .815 27th
This says to me he’s getting defensive support, but isn’t top level at making saves. A team should always be looking at getting the best goalie they can. Just as a few weak teams have ridden their goalie far like with Price, there are strong teams that don’t figure it out and get let down like the Canes and Leafs for years
Someone will say SCF game 7, which is true. But as LT said there are no guarantees they get that far again, and Stu’s results seem to be holding flat. Their great run had at least as much ‘despite’ as ‘because of’ to me
I hope he has a great season and irons the rest of the details out. If he doesn’t to me it’s a gamble, that HDSV% is too far down the list for comfort. On a typical team it’s less of a big deal, their chances are slim at best. On a team with who the Oilers have been gifted, it should be priority #1. They have opportunity that most other teams don’t, to do things other teams can’t
If you’re looking for Bernie Parent of Dom Hasek then Skinner isn’t your guy. For me, he was terrific last spring and kept Edmonton in some games until the offense found its way. The final score in Game 7 was 2-1. When was the final goal scored in that game?
15:11 of the second period.
I think losing 2-1 in a Game 7 and focusing on Skinner, without discussing the offense, misses a big part of the game.
Skinner gave his team a chance. He didn’t steal Game 7. That is true.
Berglund is now healthy and has been assigned to the Condors.
On the broadcast last night, Holt was talking about Jarventie in November – it would be too bad if he can’t be assigned until then, he’s got an apx $107K cap hit until he can be re-assigned and, also, we want him to get up to speed and playing, etc. I imagine this season will be somewhat of a right off for him but maybe he can end strong and go in to the summer training fully healthy and confident and ready to compete for an NHL job next season.
With 12 forwards on the roster, no doubt of the 12 in the lineup. It’s back to back this weekend and 3 in 4 – if only the Oilers had a 13th healthy forward to give the option for a Perry or Ryan or even Podz rest one of these games.
Don’t get me wrong, not a single NHL org is willing to have Lavoie on their NHL roster at league min so I’m not going to spew vitriol regarding asset management and what not, however, at the same time, seems like keeping Lavoie for the weekend and ensuring healthy and lack of fatigue in the next while, delaying the re-waive, was a viable option.
It’s because you are focused on the player. The issue is the general degrading of assets over time. Buy high and sell low.
I’d like to see the Captain come out flying with everyone following his lead.
Dig in!
Catching up on last night and Stauff mentioned that Pickard was off the ice first at practice yesterday and may get the start tonight.
Of course we expect them to split the back to backs.
Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee to clear out the cobwebs from last night, but I’m not following your logic. You state that you are ok with splitting the Nurse-Emberson pairing with Emberson being bumped down to the 3rd pair and then seem to advocate for Nurse being given the “soft parade” on the 3rd pairing until his game returns.
I am not ok with splitting Nurse-Emberson after 1 game unless it’s to move Nurse to the 3rd pairing. There is no reason for Nurse & PTO Dermott to be 2nd pairing.
100%.
A few issues:
• You cannot shelter two pairs and Kulak is not a top 4 dman and Nurse has not played like one in half a year.
• Start as you mean to go. LT states that Emberson and Nurse have barely played together. If the team thinks Emberson is the solution to 2 RHD then how is he supposed to get chemistry with the 2 LHD if they continue to not play together?
• The flip flopping of the pairs throughout camp and into the season definitely has a bad/panic look to it.
I have no quarrel with moving Emberson off the pairing if the coach feels Nurse needs more time to settle in. For me, if Kulak-Emberson is a better fit, then go with it. But come back to Nurse-Emberson when Nurse has settled in, maybe with Stecher. I also mentioned that the third pairing would be a better spot for Nurse until he’s 100 percent. The coach owes it to the team.
I’m saying he will be second pair, but advocating for Nurse on third pair.
It didn’t take long for our new G.M to face his old team. If we get spanked again with Skinner unable to make a few saves I don’t believe Bowman sits on his hands for 20 games. I would think our G.M was trying to play 2-D by committee until a nice deal shook loose but I could see him making a move for a Goalie if Skinner cam’t get in the groove in his first 6 or so games.
Prospectsaturation!
Indeed, this is the superest of Saturdays with all thirteen NAmateurs potentially in action.
Wakely put up a remarkable 2+1 yesternight with his new club, though his new teammate Akey is off to a slow start having gone pointless in his first three games back from injury.
Nicholl has faded a bit from his own 2+1 to start the season, but that can mainly be attributed to veterans returning and cutting his ice time / quality of linemates.
Day has carried all the mail for Flint in net thus far. He has a 1.97 GAA and 93.1 SV% his last three games.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Wakely, Akey) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Mannville time.
If EDM loses tonight expect the river to run red down the legs of a city
The women will be cryin’ and rivers will be weepin’
If Edmonton loses I am going to burn this city to the ground.
Tonight’s game will be very interesting for one reason, I’m a Chicago-based Oilers fan, and the longtime local cable channel carrying the Blackhawks game folded. The Hawks, Bulls and White Sox as usual banded together for a new local channel, but as of now do not have the games on the local cable, Comcast nor on streaming, which is usually YouTube TV. So I’m going to need to hook up an over the air digital antenna to watch the game. How archaic. LOL
That’s some effort, you must be a real fan!
Give this a try, I used it for a couple of pre-season games with some success…
… http://onhockey.tv/