The Edmonton Oilers are off to a slow start and sit 0-3-0 heading into tonight’s game. They are a baffling bunch. No one believes the team is this bad, everyone believes the team will win 49 or 50 games this season. However, there are real concerns about this team’s ability to play a structured game.
The glimmer twins are struggling, but that’s life. Mick Jagger and Keith Richards had off nights, but didn’t forget how to sing or play the guitar. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will get their 100 points, Evan Bouchard will tear the cover off the ball and I do think we’ll see two scoring and possibly three outscoring lines.
THE ATHLETIC ARTICLE IS HERE! Link It’s about possible defense targets who could immediately impact the team.
BRAND NEW PLAN?
The Oilers deliver the hammer of the Gods when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are cooking. The beginning of this season shows what can happen when those two players are stifled (either by individual slumps or opponents suppressing them) and it’s reasonable to expect tougher opposition as the playoffs roll along.
This edition of the team rolls with the punches when passing is expert, but passing (and shooting) have been an issue this fall.
When teams are forced to play defense for long stretches, bad things happen. I’m a believer in the idea that a good offense also works on defense because your team is on their toes and not their heels.
However, when the team falls into these dumfounding lulls the amount of time defending increases.
Is this Oilers team flawed in the way it has been built? I’m not talking about Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, I’m talking about a team with a clear impact center, defenseman and goaltender.
When the Detroit Red Wings were winning Stanley 20 years ago, the club featured Sergei Fedorov (center), Nicklas Lidstrom (defense) and Dominik Hasek. All three of those men worked up the spine of the team and were outstanding at defending.
How many players do the Oilers have who are outstanding defenders? I would argue that Connor McDavid’s ability to impact the game impacts both offense and defense. In the past three seasons at five-on-five, he is 238-169, 58 percent. When he is off the ice over those seasons (2021-22 through 2023-24), the Oilers are 327-325, 50 percent.
In those same seasons, during the playoffs, McDavid goes super nova. His goal share is 63 percent (69-40), while the team falls to 40 percent (54-81) without him.
I don’t know what this team can do in order to keep the high ceiling potential of the roster while raising the floor. I only know this isn’t going to work. If the Oilers fall into the elevator shaft in the postseason, it’s instant summer for all involved. It’s a flawed plan, a flawed roster. I never ever want to see another Taylor-Hall-for-Adam-Larsson trade, but am beginning to think an offensive stud like Bouchard for an impact goalie (I haven’t looked, but do like Jeremy Swayman) might be necessary.
If you’re Stan Bowman, you know the team can play effectively, so it’s a matter of indifference. Defense is hard work, takes discipline and doesn’t bring much glory. If these men who are currenly populating the roster can’t gather the energy to do it, then acquiring a top-five NHL goalie may be the way. Or you can wait until summer 2027 and trade Darnell Nurse.
The current situation is untenable. When the team gets hot, everyone will forget the problem until it inevitably returns. The Oilers are like the French in World War 2: All of their cannons are pointed in one direction.
At noon today, we’ll spend most of the two hours on the Oilers. It’s all at Sports 1440 radio. Guests include Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN, Jason Gregor from the JG Show and Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-3-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 0-3-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 0-3-0
New for The Athletic: Is there a significant trade in the Edmonton Oilers’ near future?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5840092/2024/10/14/edmonton-oilers-trade-timothy-liljegren/
Nice read. I think some people around here would spontaneously combust if Bowman hired Coach Q. I doubt it happens, but if we are just talking hockey, to me he would be a top 3 best choice for the Oilers
I think Knoblauch is a good coach, better with players than the previous couple of guys, but I’m not sure he has a big enough personality for the players they have. It can’t be easy leading elite players with strong personalities, but they still need to be lead to do certain things, as we see the same problems resurface as you said
The coaches need to also work things in the way that maximizes those players, with the GM always searching for players to fill roles better. I still think that Connor and Leon might need a stronger and bigger personality in a coach. When we got our first ankle biter dog, the vet on his first visit within a few minutes said ‘you better fill his head with your ideas before he starts filling it with his own’. It’s proven hard to do, naughty boy
I agree about the need for a big personality. Not meaning a brash, or hardnosed personality, but a big personality. Phil Jackson pushed all the right buttons with the crazy group of players he had. He knew how to handle Jordans intensity (who was a massive bully, btw), Rodmans craziness, and all the dynamics.
We need someone who knows when and how to push these guys to do what he wants them to, and someone to release the crazy amount of tension in the room (at least that’s what I perceive). A good thing about Kris is his calmness. He does not add any fuel to the fire.
I have also wondered about getting in a player or two who have big personalities who are light-hearted. We need a few guys to ham it up a bit I think. A Jagr type.
There are some naughty boys in that room.
“but am beginning to think an offensive stud like Bouchard for an impact goalie (I haven’t looked, but do like Jeremy Swayman) might be necessary.”
This is one of the rarest times LT did not preach patience. 3 games and our only quality RHD option is possibly heading out the door. We are running 0 RHD and that’s the solution?
I don’t agree. Stu will come around after costing the team a few more games along the way. The defence continues to be suspect.
Remarkably (perhaps foolishly), Dom and his model have not yet completely given the Oilers up for dead. 🤷
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5834883/2024/10/15/nhl-standings-playoffs-projections-odds/
I call a win for tonight, followed by a timely road trip to get focus and structure back into their game.
They are missing Broberg, Ceci, Foegele, McLeod and Holloway from the game 7 roster – at least 3 of them most wanted replaced anyway. I think we can put the pin back in the grenade for a couple more weeks
This is likely not going to go over well wi the fanbase, however, per Rishaug:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman
Podk-RNH-Arvid
Skinner Henrique Brown
Janmark-Ryan-Perry
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson
Skinner
Well I will say I like the first and third lines. I like the change on defence as well. Stecher and Emberson should both play ahead of Dermott in my opinion
Sure. Why not? I like that third line and of course you can’t argue with that top line, unless they forget to play defense. I’m wondering when they decide to sit Nurse.
I can argue with that top line tonight given the way McDavid and Hyman have been playing in their 2-way game and given, when Drai and McDavid get put together, they cheat towards offence and try higher risk passes, etc., etc. – doesn’t seem like a good idea when all three of them have been struggling 2-way.
With that said, the trio may put up 10 points tonight (with some PP points in there).
The top trio could also be the catalyst to leading the team toward playing solid two-way hockey, siding on defense first. They simply need to stop being naughty boys.
Hyman deserves to be 4th line at best currently.
Henrique and Brown are being outplayed by Ryan and Perry, they should swap left wingers lol
Hopefully Nuge wakes up.
McDavid and Hyman being the worst defensive forwards on the team so far this season and they get Drai. We know when McDavid and Drai together, they cheat towards the offensive zone and try higher risk passes, etc.
Now, while Hyman is historically a meh defensive player (he was MUCH better last season but has regressed to prior form so far this year), McDavid is usually very good (he will make the odd mistake missing a check but generally is a plus 2-way player).
That trio will need to commit to responsibility tonight and I’m not sure they have that in them for tonight as a trio.
Seems like a bad idea to me.
Players didn’t get enough time to gel in the preseason, so let’s mix them up again?
Skinner has played well, so let’s reward him with a demotion to the 3rd line?
Let’s resort to the McDrai combo desperation move in Game 4? That’s what you do in the third period of a close game when you can play them 10 minutes that period. But compromising your depth for a full game seems less than optimal.
Genius😉
Wouldn’t it be wiser to get the players to actually show up for a game before making a panicked trade? Some bizarre, imprudent suggestions afloat this week.
They will fire KK before they ever even remotely consider trading Bouchard.
I thought were this to happen again the discourse would be much different. Maybe a bit of a shrug and a laugh, remembering who were talking about. I feel if anything the panic has set in earlier and harder than last year? I don’t even think everyone wanted Woody fired when they were 2-8 and it happened..?
Evergreen post from last season (except I think they won their third game but post from early in the season)?
If I recall correctly, they were very much unstructured pre-Knob last season as well and became quite structured (for stretches).
I think this group has the ability to get there. I know there are changes – Foegele and McLeod were “good structure players” but Holloway was not.
McDavid and Hyman are leading the lack of commitment to playing hard in all zones and doing what needs to be done – for the forwards – that should change.
Very bleak read this morning.
Everyone is free to freak out at their own pace. But be mindful of a different kind of score effects, the kind that warp a narrative beyond any point of return.
Poor performances sure yet on a knife’s edge between winning and not. They very well could (should) have been 3-0 against Calgary. The first review goes Edmonton’s way, Calgary can’t make the second challenge. I reject the premise they were outplayed last game. It’s just hockey, further, it’s the NHL. Your expectations, however reasonable, will hardly ever be met.
We were THIS CLOSE to: “Don’t look great but are gelling” which is a far cry from thinking about trading Bouchard or firing Garlic before game 4 of the season!
I mean who hasn’t learned their lesson here the team or it’s fans?
I’ll prefer to run with history and know this team turns it around after three losses, and the sample size for success remains vast in contrast.
I can’t disagree, but the selfish fan in me just wants a team that consistently brings the effort and execution level to each game that gives us a chance to win.
Sat through how many seasons where we knew we had no shot to win anything other than the odd moral victory. I think this fan base deserves to see the other side for a few years here.
I also don’t disagree – its what I want and would prefer. I think it is important to step out of the moment and put things in context, however. Pretty big turnover, pretty big hangover… not excuses but as a fan, I am still looking at a team whose last road game was G7 of the SCF. If there are things now that we deserve, is there some reciprocity there? Are there some things that this leadership core deserves, such as the benefit of doubt? Maybe they do, maybe not.I don’t think anyone predicted 82-0, nor would anyone have assumed absolutely no dry spells.
So I guess for me, “deserve” is tough nut to crack. I do feel we deserve things related to the culture of the team, which I have voiced my position on, so I think its fine to feel entitled to honesty, respect, and hard work. After all, the fans are a team’s mother.
Of course there’s always the possibility to fire the coach. It also could be seen as a threat to get the players to start listening to the coach, and sure trade your best offensive defenseman to get him to think more about defense. Get a better goaltender or simply just play better defense.
How many more losses can we endure before we can start pinning this downfall on Bowman curse?
Nothing good came after the hire.
I’ve already been told to shut up about it so I assume never.
I support you Chelios 😛
It has nothing to do with Bowman. This team started this way last season too. And it’s been challenging, to say the least, getting these players collective heads screwed on straight on a consistent basis over the years. It doesn’t matter who’s in charge. There’s no way they can keep firing the coach. This is on the players.
Nothing to do with Bowman yet. He won’t be the difference when the team is in a funk. But the “how long…” part of the question is valid, and if he can’t right the ship when and if the time comes…
For a place known for running players out of town, trading Bouchard before doing everything possible to sway Nurse to ask out would be a failure as to who we are lol
Oilers should be able to find a mostly goalie if that’s the case without trading Bouchard, that would be dumb.
Bouchard has disappointed me so far this season but trading him now would be more brain dead then when I was saying trade him this time last year.
Bouchard’s numbers have been great without McDavid on ice, let’s keep those types and call Slats on who the next pre puck to the head Tommy Salo is out there.
We spoke of a big trade last night of an offensive player. I would all day long trade a top 6 not named Connor or Leon for a top 4 Defenceman or #1 Goalie.
But would not trade Bouchard. What he brings is irreplaceable and takes forever to get one. Also the defense is already razor thin.
Trading Bouchard would be a disaster.
The biggest issue with the Oilers roster construction is the Nurse contract. How can you build a functional defence when a guy who played 18 minutes a night in the playoffs is making 9 million?
It certainly would be. I don’t know how they’re going to be able to afford him, McJesus, Drai and Nurse and still field a competitive team even when the cap goes up
Something has to give.
I’ll bite on the Bouchard trade chat.
I’m not sure trading Bouchard for Swayman, even if it nets the Oilers Swayman is a prudent move:
Ekholm-Stecher?
Nurse-Dermott
Kulak-Emberson
You’d be asking Swayman/Skinner to stop 50 a night. I’m in the camp where I think Skinner plus Pickard and/or eventually Rodrigue are enough if we have the right defenders in front of them. I’d be looking more at upgrading 2RD if possible than going goalie hunting.
Puck movement is a problem again. Trading your elite puck mover D seems like the opposite of what to do. Really what top 5 goalie is available? What they can do is get another 1B type and platoon them, but that is easier done off season. Vegas won a Cup doing that. I don’t think Pickard was a great choice because I can’t see him being able to step up for a longer stretch if necessary
They really needed to improve finishing 5v5, and they did I think despite the start, and they aren’t the only good team having issues. I don’t like the forward mix though even though I like each player
NHL_SID has a piece up at ON, he thinks being slower is not helping breakouts, and Henrique needs a transporter to offset his weaknesses, among other things. I’m not sure they are that much slower, but they don’t have a lot of forwards that like to skate the puck. JJ and Bowman have improved talent but may have missed the mark on balance
https://oilersnation.com/news/why-you-can-expect-the-edmonton-oilers-to-bounce-back-and-why-they-still-have-several-areas-of-major-concern
Well stated.
I don’t think however, Boston would have any appetite to execute a trade like the one you’ve suggested. And if they were to go for a trade like that, I feel like that would only exacerbate the loss of Broberg.
Mismanagement of the roster, both present and recent past, have put the Oilers in the present position they’re in and I wouldn’t want to rehash it all. It’s all been written over the last few months by everyone on the blog.
This team is exceedingly slow as I see them. Frustratingly slow.
I am legitimately concerned. I felt there needed to be at least a win from this past weekend. But the slow boots, the inability to win the cycle game down low (because that is who they are) and poor passes/poor receptions in all 3 games so far is a worrying trend.
Adding some speed, some puck possession and tenacity are an imperative. Not just at forward, but defence too. HS Nurse for a couple of games (to recover his health), Kulak to second pair with Dermott, Stetcher/Emberson on third pair, bring Philp up to sit Podkolzin and see what happens is my radical, blue-sky solution. Please note, I am not an NHL GM at all.
Lots of “not willing to dig in and play a harder game”