One of the best draft choices this century was Kyle Brodziak in 2003. In the months that followed, I put up a post at hfboards asking if Brodziak was comparable (and possibly better than) first round pick Marc Pouliot. That was 20 years ago. We have our answer. Edmonton has another Brodziak in Noah Philp. He’ll be older when he arrives in the NHL and may not have as long a career, but he’ll fill a similar role and is giving the right vibes for a player of his type. The kicker on this story? The veterans are keeping him off the roster with their fine play. Nothing like competition for a roster spot.

WICHITA LINEMAN

I heard the song when I was just a kid and always loved it. The intro has a flutter to it that actual music experts will recognize but for me it’s always represented an immediate plunge into the drama of the song. Jimmy Webb wrote it, after seeing a man hanging off a telephone pole. Artist Glen Campbell, who had achieved success with another Webb song (By The Time I Get to Phoenix), requested another tune that included a city in the title. Webb wrote what might be the finest country song ever, although Angel from Montgomery remains my favourite. Webb wrote it and recorded it, sending the demo to producer Al De Lory for Campbell to record. As luck would have it, De Lory (who loved the song right away) related completely. He had an uncle who was a lineman in Kern County, California. Noah Philp plays his hockey currently in Kern County, California.

WHAT I DO

There was plenty of chatter yesterday on the blog about my flawed usage of numbers. Guilty as charged. There are folks who know the math far better than I do, and it must gall legit math folks that my rudimentary read of hockey’s math is read daily. I do use Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ, they are respected outlets, and I have no plans to change my views.

For those who are searching for higher ground, I applaud you. However, hockey analytics, at least the publicly available analytics, are the basics (this is what I use) and a bunch of people running around with their own version of the Bible. We’re in Tower of Babel territory, and I’m just going to go with Puck IQ and Natural Stat Trick.

There are people who think Darnell Nurse can’t play at all. I disagree. I subscribe to what Puck IQ’s math says about him: Nurse has been in and around average for his career, and enjoyed a strong run in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He struggled last year and we’ll see about this one. Average against elites is good, not $9 million good but that contract came about due to Oilers management (twice) kicking the ball down the road. In the future, there may be math roads, that include quality of competition, that look at Nurse from a different vantage point that allows us more insight than is currently available. If you can do that, I’ll be listening.

I believe in Puck IQ. I believe in Natural Stat Trick, although things like high danger chances have wobble. I believe in Corsi and Corsi Rel and hold Dangerous Fenwick in high regard. I also enjoy actual Fenwick, he’s a good fellow despite being a Calgary Flames fan.

If you find my work interesting, I thank you. I am not looking for the missing chord, I know this blog will never produce a song as good as Wichita Lineman.

I write what interests me, I hope you enjoy it. I invite you to post your innovative ideas on the blog and I sincerely hope you find a kindred spirit.

I am not going to be cutting edge in analytics, and my thoughts derived from those the numbers and sources I use may clang like a hammer against your soul. However, I post these numbers because they are of interest to me, and help me understand the game more. I know I’m not alone because my articles are well read. I don’t apologize for any of what has been written and I fully admit my goal is to invite as many people into the conversation as possible.

I am not a man who brags all the time, but I will make this claim. Lowetide has been visited by many people over the years, and many of those people have gone on to find careers at high levels of hockey and media. None of them came here for my innovative usage of math. They came here because I can write a story plus they found individuals who helped them increase their knowledge and look at the numbers from different angles. That’s all I can offer you. I am not the Bible store, and I’m not looking for the New World Translation of the Hockey Scriptures.

I cannot tell you how many times over the last 20 years that people have reached out to suggest I change what I write. For me, it would be like writing righthanded (I’m a lefty, unless Woodguy is reading this, then I’m a righty). I can’t reach the immortal soul of hockey analytics because I own mathematical feet of clay. The good thing for me is that I’m not alone. Many folks enjoy learning the game at my pace. I’m one of the people who was part of the Lowetide blog and parlayed that into an enjoyable career. I’m forever grateful.

Analytics in hockey, the public analytics, hasn’t been able to move much forward in recent years. Part of it comes from the fact so many of the innovators have been hired by NHL teams. The analytics outer marker is behind closed doors, and no one know what goes on behind closed doors. The public hockey analytics? Everyone has their Bible, and like the world in all endeavors we are all talking past each other. I sincerely hope you find your people, and they are both open to your ideas and push you to make your math model better.

You can tell me all day that my math is borrowed, but I know that and make it publicly known daily. If you’re mad at me because I haven’t adopted your model, then maybe you have to explain it more clearly. Know your audience. Be Bill James. Not Bill James now, the guy who is mad at catchers for having one knee down, be Bill James in the 1980’s. Take big ideas and make them easy for everyman. That’s a tough one when you’re searching for the truth, though. I will give you that much.

When your model reaches the credibility level of Puck IQ, I may well adopt it and trumpet your accomplishments. I do think the outer marker for public analytics is Puck IQ. Thanks for reading the blog, no matter why. I enjoy our interactions and am always glad you visit.

On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about last night’s Oilers game beginning at noon on Sports 1440. Guests include Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declan Krueger will have his Declanations. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.