One of the best draft choices this century was Kyle Brodziak in 2003. In the months that followed, I put up a post at hfboards asking if Brodziak was comparable (and possibly better than) first round pick Marc Pouliot. That was 20 years ago. We have our answer. Edmonton has another Brodziak in Noah Philp. He’ll be older when he arrives in the NHL and may not have as long a career, but he’ll fill a similar role and is giving the right vibes for a player of his type. The kicker on this story? The veterans are keeping him off the roster with their fine play. Nothing like competition for a roster spot.
WICHITA LINEMAN
I heard the song when I was just a kid and always loved it. The intro has a flutter to it that actual music experts will recognize but for me it’s always represented an immediate plunge into the drama of the song. Jimmy Webb wrote it, after seeing a man hanging off a telephone pole. Artist Glen Campbell, who had achieved success with another Webb song (By The Time I Get to Phoenix), requested another tune that included a city in the title. Webb wrote what might be the finest country song ever, although Angel from Montgomery remains my favourite. Webb wrote it and recorded it, sending the demo to producer Al De Lory for Campbell to record. As luck would have it, De Lory (who loved the song right away) related completely. He had an uncle who was a lineman in Kern County, California. Noah Philp plays his hockey currently in Kern County, California.
WHAT I DO
There was plenty of chatter yesterday on the blog about my flawed usage of numbers. Guilty as charged. There are folks who know the math far better than I do, and it must gall legit math folks that my rudimentary read of hockey’s math is read daily. I do use Natural Stat Trick and Puck IQ, they are respected outlets, and I have no plans to change my views.
For those who are searching for higher ground, I applaud you. However, hockey analytics, at least the publicly available analytics, are the basics (this is what I use) and a bunch of people running around with their own version of the Bible. We’re in Tower of Babel territory, and I’m just going to go with Puck IQ and Natural Stat Trick.
There are people who think Darnell Nurse can’t play at all. I disagree. I subscribe to what Puck IQ’s math says about him: Nurse has been in and around average for his career, and enjoyed a strong run in 2021-22 and 2022-23. He struggled last year and we’ll see about this one. Average against elites is good, not $9 million good but that contract came about due to Oilers management (twice) kicking the ball down the road. In the future, there may be math roads, that include quality of competition, that look at Nurse from a different vantage point that allows us more insight than is currently available. If you can do that, I’ll be listening.
I believe in Puck IQ. I believe in Natural Stat Trick, although things like high danger chances have wobble. I believe in Corsi and Corsi Rel and hold Dangerous Fenwick in high regard. I also enjoy actual Fenwick, he’s a good fellow despite being a Calgary Flames fan.
If you find my work interesting, I thank you. I am not looking for the missing chord, I know this blog will never produce a song as good as Wichita Lineman.
I write what interests me, I hope you enjoy it. I invite you to post your innovative ideas on the blog and I sincerely hope you find a kindred spirit.
I am not going to be cutting edge in analytics, and my thoughts derived from those the numbers and sources I use may clang like a hammer against your soul. However, I post these numbers because they are of interest to me, and help me understand the game more. I know I’m not alone because my articles are well read. I don’t apologize for any of what has been written and I fully admit my goal is to invite as many people into the conversation as possible.
I am not a man who brags all the time, but I will make this claim. Lowetide has been visited by many people over the years, and many of those people have gone on to find careers at high levels of hockey and media. None of them came here for my innovative usage of math. They came here because I can write a story plus they found individuals who helped them increase their knowledge and look at the numbers from different angles. That’s all I can offer you. I am not the Bible store, and I’m not looking for the New World Translation of the Hockey Scriptures.
I cannot tell you how many times over the last 20 years that people have reached out to suggest I change what I write. For me, it would be like writing righthanded (I’m a lefty, unless Woodguy is reading this, then I’m a righty). I can’t reach the immortal soul of hockey analytics because I own mathematical feet of clay. The good thing for me is that I’m not alone. Many folks enjoy learning the game at my pace. I’m one of the people who was part of the Lowetide blog and parlayed that into an enjoyable career. I’m forever grateful.
Analytics in hockey, the public analytics, hasn’t been able to move much forward in recent years. Part of it comes from the fact so many of the innovators have been hired by NHL teams. The analytics outer marker is behind closed doors, and no one know what goes on behind closed doors. The public hockey analytics? Everyone has their Bible, and like the world in all endeavors we are all talking past each other. I sincerely hope you find your people, and they are both open to your ideas and push you to make your math model better.
You can tell me all day that my math is borrowed, but I know that and make it publicly known daily. If you’re mad at me because I haven’t adopted your model, then maybe you have to explain it more clearly. Know your audience. Be Bill James. Not Bill James now, the guy who is mad at catchers for having one knee down, be Bill James in the 1980’s. Take big ideas and make them easy for everyman. That’s a tough one when you’re searching for the truth, though. I will give you that much.
When your model reaches the credibility level of Puck IQ, I may well adopt it and trumpet your accomplishments. I do think the outer marker for public analytics is Puck IQ. Thanks for reading the blog, no matter why. I enjoy our interactions and am always glad you visit.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about last night’s Oilers game beginning at noon on Sports 1440. Guests include Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declan Krueger will have his Declanations. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: What we’ve learned about the Edmonton Oilers in week 1 of the NHL season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5848810/2024/10/18/edmonton-oilers-flyers-predators-standings/
I enjoy all of your writings LT, the personal stories are up there, but this one hits the top few
I am an emotional person, but prefer to not spend that too much on small hills to die on. Your description of current public stats is how I see it. The early crazy days are gone, because they were based on some simple data and new ideas. I don’t see (not that I’m a math person, but I feel that I understand what is pertinent) anything now we can rely on that’s better than the basics
Thank you for keeping your blog going through it all. I love participating and learning each day from you and all of you that comment
Hamblin with a pass from behind the net to Griffith driving towards the net and beauty finish backhand shelf.
2-0
Petrov with the 2nd assist on the cycle behind the net to Hamblin.
Summarizing!
Who would have thought the only NAmateur goal of the night would be scored by…Berry? Indeed! And on a night when Muskegon erupted for seven goals.
Fischer ended up with a pair of apples in a victory.
Lachance chipped in an aPPle.
Day stopped 20 of 22 but lost 2-1.
O’Reilly, Nicholl, Mazura and Copponi were denied soup and shall have to subsist on goldfish crackers.
Clattenburg did not dress.
Stefan buries his first pro goal – a rebound of a nice Grubbe rush.
LT apologizing for any shortcomings of the blog is analogous to Connor apologizing for the Oilers not winning the Stanley Cup (I don’t think he did or should have)
Thanks for the kind words LT! (and I can’t believe I still remembered the password to this account)
Hope you are well, and delighted that you continue to write in your unique and invaluable voice.
Can you believe it has been eight (8, ATE) years since we launched PuckIQ??? If all goes well, this season’s data will go live this weekend. (Earlier than usual for us, we usually wait 10 games for the sample sizes to build, but we supply data behind the scenes to our friends at PuckPedia, and thanks to the demise of CapFriendly, there is a lot of attention on those guys right now, so they requested an earlier launch.)
PuckIQ would not exist without Lowetide – all of us (myself, Woodguy, Zsolt, Derek Blasutti who had to concentrate on Dad priorities and was ably replaced by Sean Solbak) all have been long-time posters and first started interacting here.
Keep on keeping on LT, and we plan to do the same with the site!
Hey G – great to hear from you and happy for your success 🙂
That’s very kind. Thank you.
G Money?! Man, the LT HoF is out! I miss these greats on this board. Great to see your handle alive, G. Congrats on your continued success.
Fischer maintains his apple-per-game pace with a helper on the icebreaker.
I thoroughly enjoy your blog, more than any other articles about the Oilers. You have a way of connecting the human element and mind to the game we love. I don’t come here for advanced stats. I come hear for your stories and rational viewpoints on the team during it’s roller coaster of highs and lows. So thank you for writing every day, you’re my favorite sports blogger by a country mile!
I read/listen to you for the opinions, not the stats
I’ve recently read (last couple of months I think) that with all the millions spent and all the hype about the analytics revolution in football (soccer), all the data really tells us that it’s much easier to score goals the closer you get to the net.
In baseball it was about getting on base. The next step would be the most efficient tactics to getting to that step. Much harder with constant movement. The data points in fluid sports are astronomical.
Here’s a true story… or at least as accurate as my memory serves!
Back in the day, I used to have endless discussions about player analytics with Woodguy and Gmoney on this site. I had connected with both of them outside the blog as well.
I think it was around 2014 when Extra Skater went dark after Darryl Metcalf was hired by the Leafs. For the analytics community, it felt like an unimaginable void had been created. The lights had gone out. For Darryl, though, obviously it was a huge win.
Around that time, Woodguy told me that he had a plan to expand PuckIQ and fill the gap left by Extra Skater. I mentioned that I had ideas for creating my own analytics site. Woodguy kindly introduced me to a programmer/analytics guy that he knew who was looking for a business partner.
Well prior to the time that Extra Skater went dark, Gmoney had stopped posting regularly at the Lowetide blog. Woodguy had contacted me because he had received an email from GMoney’s personal account at some point in the distant past, but he couldn’t retrieve it because he couldn’t recall his name.
Thankfully, I was able to supply that crucial bit of information, and Woodguy used it to reconnect with Gmoney. They went on to collaborate and create PuckIQ. So, can I claim a small but pivotal role in the creation of PuckIQ? Perhaps.
I also had a call with the programmer Woodguy put me in touch with about creating an analytics website. I was ready to invest $10,000 or $20,000 to get it up and running. When I asked how he planned to use the funds, expecting to hear about setting up a server or hiring developers, I was caught off guard. Instead, he told me he’d take some time off work and… go to Mexico! He even started listing things he wanted to buy for himself—definitely not what I was expecting.
And that’s how my analytics site never got off the ground.
I’l make you an offer, Ryan, that will save you some money.
If you give me only $5000 instead of $10000, then I will take some time off work to go to Mexico.
Correction.
My chronology has an important error. I have conflated the shut down of Extra Skater in 2014 with the subsequent shut down of David Johnson’s website, hockey analysis.com in 2016.
2016 was when Woodguy informed me that they would attempt to fill the void of Hockey Analysis closure. 2016 was the year that had a huge gap in publicly available hockey stats, not 2014. Until Puckiq and the late Corsica.hockey sites arrived.
2014 was the year the correct year though that I had looked into creating an analytics website.
Great story thanks!
Of course my brain immediately goes to Chevy Chase “It was my understanding that there would be no math”
Ha ha, a very young Chevy Chase.
A couple of observations about PuckIQ, in the spirit of we’re all free to think about and question what’s put in front us.
The central premise of the site seems to be that for players, Quality of Competition matters, that is, who you play against has an effect on your results. Has anyone bothered to check whether the PuckIQ numbers actually show this to be the case? Recently? When I checked a while back, there wasn’t a relationship between results (GF%) and QoC. The checking isn’t a difficult step. But it’s an important one.
Second, there are about 48 minutes of 5v5 time per game (I think). Workhorse defensemen play 19 minutes. Last season, MacKinnon, the outer marker for forwards, played 17. The median for all players last season (with no filters on NST) was about 12:30.
Anyone who has looked at 5v5 player results from one period to the next knows that period to period correlations are weak. This isn’t unexpected because we’re measuring player ability in constantly shifting conditions (instead of repeated standardized trials), because goals (the ultimate performance measure) are rare, and because we observe players for just around 12:30 minutes a night which isn’t a lot.
So what should we expect when we shorten the 5v5 window even more by splitting it up into three bins (elite, middle, gritensity)? Should we expect an already unclear picture to become clearer? Should we expect the readings for just one of those bins (elite) to be somehow more representative of a player’s ability than ALL the time he spends on the ice? Do the period to period correlations somehow improve? Again, checking this, while tedious, isn’t difficult.
We accept most of what we know, we don’t test it for ourselves or understand it at any depth. Like car engines and refrigerators, they just work… most of the time. Bridges and buildings stay up… almost all of the time. Surgeons can remove parts of us and replace them with someone else’s parts. Einstein. The economy. Stuff that we can’t or won’t ever figure out but we have strong evidence that it describes or helps us navigate our world.
Hockey analytics isn’t in that category, especially for many of the people who gather here. The basic ideas are simple enough for us to explore and try out and combine with what we see when we watch the game. Given our interests and capacities, we don’t need to accept someone else’s version of the game without testing it ourselves.
Dad passed away at the end of February. I miss him every day but today is birthday. He would be 73 today. I thought I would share part of an email he sent me in 2020. Dad was Grant Fuhr’s lawyer when he got busted with “a substance.” I think I can get away with sharing this here, as those juicier details are public knowledge and have been for decades. The following is an excerpt copy and pasted from the email (with one word censored, sorry):
While I can’t think of a lot of “bad advice/ bad idea” stories off the top of my head, I will admit to an error in judgment (in retrospect) I have long regretted.
Another Fuhr, another time, another alleged wrong doing, saw me and client (and misc. supportive others) walking into a booked hearing room in the Royal York Hotel in Toronto. As it happened , the only person in the room was our designated one person adjudicator / hearing person,( ¾ scale Kennedy) , NHL President , John Zeigler. He was in the process of helping himself to one of those bar fridge size teeny “Diet Cokes” and, I think , felt a bit sheepish on being seen to do so. Without a word of introduction otherwise, he turned to me (and I swear this to be true) announced (as his res gestae introduction) “You know? I am addicted to this stuff!” I rather nodded and said **** all of substance; but I really wanted to point at Grant and say ”Well he’s not! May we go now?” I knew I was chickening out right at that moment. The rest is history. We gave it our best shot and then, reading from a prepared text, the President announced an all-time record for NHL player disciplinary suspensions…
Yep, I hold an NHL record.
And to this day , I regret (uncharacteristically) not blurting out the first thing that came to mind. Cause it was good.
RWR
I miss so much about him. His sense of humour most of all. He was hilarious. So sharp and he never missed a beat. I thought the folks here would a chuckle out of this email.
Great story, thanks for sharing. It is interesting to hear stories from those with 1, 2 or 3 degrees of separation from Kevin Oil’Bacon on this blog
I once saw Nail Yakupov at west Edmonton mall sitting on a bench with two guys in Adidas track suits
Love it.
LT! While unnecessary, I appreciate the post. I’m sure a majority of readers have high value for what you are in this space. This space was my first analytics exposure beyond – ‘saw him good’. It is a space to remember, chuckle, shed a tear around our love of the game and everything that we associate with it. Our family and friends – sights – smells – sounds – musical reference and memories associated with the game. It continues to be a safe place on the internet to read about my favorite hockey team. And grateful that you resist click-baiting us.
Note I’m an athletic subscriber to access your work. I would’nt hesitate to spend that money here instead.
I enjoy coming to this blog daily.
Personally I could care less about math.
I’m one of the few who visit here who doesn’t give a hoot about analytics.
Keep up the great writing LT and all the good and bad interactions from all the readers and commenters.
Per Paige Martin (Oilers Plus):
Oilers practice in Dallas today:
– Janmark skating on a line with Nugent-Hopkins and Arvidsson
– Podkolzin skating with Ryan and Perry
– Skinner in starter’s net
Leon-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Nuge-Arvidsson
Podkolzin-Ryan-Perry
Once the PP and PK get sorted out I still think we have the best forward group since the mid-eighties. It’ll take 10 games to find the rhythm. I’m super pumped to watch Henrique and soon to be Philip feast on the opposition during the dog days of winter. Jarventie-Philip-Savoie have me excited come new year as I think these prospects will contribute on our way to a well deserved Cup.
Jarventie still isn’t playing – given the surgery, off-season rehab, additional injury and recovery, I don’t imagine he’ll be an NHL opinion this season
Bummer thank you for the update.
Always remember, LT:
“Do not worry about your difficulties in mathematics; I can assure you that mine are still greater.” — Albert Einstein
Please don’t take this next one disparagingly, but I think the meaning aligns with what you may have written above:
“With fame, I become more and more stupid, which, of course, is a very common phenomenon. There is far too great a disproportion between what one is and what others think one is, or at least, what they say they think one is. But one has to take it all in good humor.” — Albert Einstein
Einstein did a lot…but of course, it is all relative.
Just googled Dallas Eakins to see what he’s up to these days.
Looks like he’s got the boys chopping wood and carrying water in Mannheim, Germany now. Those poor bastards.
Interesting post today LT.
The hockey analytics / music analogy is definitely a great way of looking at this.
Here’s another riff on this from a rock music macro perspective.
When hockey analytics / rock & roll music first starts, it’s bog standard with basic instrumentation and a simple backbeat. Corsi. Wow, revolutionary,
Very quickly however, people can see the intrinsic potential of it and innovation starts happening hard and fast. Dave Davies invents distortion. Brian Wilson and the Beatles exploit multi-tracking. Hendrix arrives from another galaxy. This is the point at which analytics vastly expanded its vocabulary and field of knowledge and starts
to gain both the attention and the ire of the hockey traditionalists and the media. The Beatles had appeared on Ed Sullivan and now everyone had picked up a guitar and started growing their hair.
The problem is prog is the next step in the evolution of the art form. This is when the smartest men in the room start to disappear up their own ass writing 20 minute epics about fairy kingdoms and concerts become festooned with lasers and dry ice. To your point today, this is when everyone starts to drink their own koolaid and instead of an art form inspired by collaborative curiosity, it becomes a race to see who can establish the most influential orthodoxy (ie album sales). If Pink Floyd was a metric, they’d be Expected Goals.
So where are we now? This is the era of institutional acceptance. Some of analytics brightest lights are now working as actual NHL GMs, the traditionalists are greying out, and the media provides content specifically tailored to fans hungry for data. Hockey analytics now is as mainstream as a Rolling Stones stadium tour or a Taylor Swift political endorsement.
The problem however is once you evolve from Indie to Mainstream, you are no longer breaking new ground and the art form becomes decidedly uninteresting and corporate. Think U2 and Coldplay here.
What’s needed now is the next great visionary/innovator to reinvent the artform, possibly by taking it back to its roots. We’re at the point now where the Smells Like Teen Spirit video is desperately needed to kill the first wave of analytics and move us to the next. Kurt Cobain started that revolution with a Fender Jaguar. Analytics needs a chip in the puck to create hockey’s first true large language model.
Yes, hockey analytics and AI are going to be the next big sensation sweeping the nation. All the cool kids will be doing it. So grab some gear and get in the game. It’s only Rock and Roll but we like it, like it, yes we do.
Btw honorable mentions to Tyler Dellow, the Steely Dan of analytics, and LT who is Bill Graham, John Hammond, and Neil Young all rolled into one. Graham because he provided and promoted a stage for others to shine. Hammond because he has a sharp eye for talent and the wisdom to keep it authentic. And of course Neil, because he can turn a phrase like nobody’s business and marches to the beat of his own drummer.
“Live Long Rock, be it dead or alive!”
I’m assuming the down votes are King Crimson fans or maybe Emerson Lake and Palmer?
Yes.
I’m a lineman by trade, so numbers are tough for me. The only change to your writing that I might humbly suggest is to please include more pictures. You know, for us slow kids in the back.
Especially balance pictures!
Oklahoma… and I’m not thinking about the musical number.
hear hear. #tradition
I read your blog, LT, for the stories and your take on all things Oilers. We share a similar background, what with growing up in small northern towns, a similar religious upbringing and a love for all things Oilers. Your references, sometimes so subtle to your folks religion, (and sometimes not), always strike a chord. How you intertwine life and sports together makes reading your articles enjoyable and insightful. I don’t come here for the math. I’m an accountant and I have little aptitude for mental gymnastics involving numbers, so I use a spreadsheet. No different than you using PuckIQ.
Hi Lowetide!, i love that song and Jimmy Webb might be my favorite composer or one of the greatest in contemporary american music…this is kind of nerdy but the song goes through three keys and is brilliantly weaved through its modulations…by the way, its the great Carole Kay (the wrecking crew) on bass but Glen(also the wrecking crew) Campbell on the baritone guitar solo…Glen also did another Webb song called Galveston!
Prospectigan!
Nine is not the loneliest number that you’ll ever do, but it is the number of NAmateurs with work to do.
Berry continues to search for the elusive crooked number, said search made more difficult by Muskegon’s popgun offense (15 GF in 7 GP, only two teams in 16-team USHL with lower GF/G).
Mazura is off to a fine start with 4 points in 4 GP, and is listed as St. Lawrence’s 1C.
While Copponi (BU’s 2C) has yet to find the scoresheet, Lachance (1LW) has no such problem with 1+3 in two GP.
Fischer has apples in both GP thus far.
The London and Flint duos round out the sched (assuming Clattenburg returns tonight).
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Hoosier time.
And Bako plays Ontario at 8 pm on a slow night in the NHL.
I really enjoy LTs writing, AND enjoy the conversations around the stats. I love hearing what JP has to say, and Scungys challenging of all things provokes thought. Tarkus’ puns and updates (its probably not actually your picture, but in my mind it is). Sides humour and sarcastic bite. And more.
I love the different things everone contributes in this blog. I mostly come to eavesdrop on the conversation than anything.
Now that we have some hindsight and a small sample size, who besides godot would have signed Broberg to a 3 million x 2 year contract, and taken a pass on Arvidsson?
Eh. I think the real issues with the handling of Broberg pre-date the offseason. I think by the time summer rolled around the relationship was not salvageable.
The Oilers should have traded Kulak last year and/or played Bro way more at RD throughout the season.
Brogan should of outplayed the players ahead of him and grabbed the spot.
Instead he was sent down to play 1D minutes and work on his craft, when he returned he was better then ever and outplayed those ahead of him.
Does he become that player playing 13 mins a night in the bigs rather then 25 a night as 1D in the A?
I think he would have signed a 3 mill x 2 contract on July 2. He was just coming off a playoff run where the team finally showed some confidence in him and he played a role in the team’s success. Could be wrong though
I’m sure he would have signed that as well – would have been a 2.5X overpay to market.
As opposed to the 6X overpay he got from the Blues. I agree, it is an overpay to what his history said he should get. I don’t think it is a bad part of the roster to pay a little extra for to build good will. A young, good skating, high ceiling defenseman can be a cornerstone of the team for a decade to come. I believe there is a high chance he will exceed 3 million per year value this year and next
Oh, I have (and had) little doubt that he’d provide value for a 2 X $3MM contract but, at the same time, it would have been a huge overpay at the time of signing for non-established RFA, coming off his ELC with no arb rights. Management would have been highly critisized for an over pay even if the player was likely to provide value for cap hit.
Its just the nature of what these players make at that stage of their career and the team’s need to take advantage of the system, its their last chance to have the leverage.
STL really effed up the Oilers plans – and they were reasonable plans.
Makes me wonder if times are going to change in regards to squeezing rfa’s. If Broberg and Holloway do well in St Loo, maybe it starts a trend of more offer sheets which would put more pressure on teams to deal with the young talent they want to keep. The cap starting to go up faster than previous few years would also aid in this regard I would think. Will be something to watch
Perhaps, or maybe it’ll be another 8 years before we see a successful offer sheet.
With respect to these two:
– Holloway has 1 point, a secondary assist, in his 5 games – some nice metrics but not sure if he’s earning $2.3MM 5 games in
– Broberg does have those 5 points and is 3-0 goals at 5 on 5 but, going by numbers, he’s getting heavily caved at 5 on 5 and running a PDO of 1.075 and expected goal share of 45%. Perhaps his start is unsustainable, although, at the same time, his actual results also out-ran his metrics big-time in the playoffs – maybe that’s a thing for him. $4.6MM is going to be tough to sustain value – we’ll see.
Yes, will be interesting to watch for sure.
Tough to be viewed as an overpay while also saying the contract would provide value.
I was saying for most of the off-season that one of the main keys to this team winning the Stanley Cup is Darnell Nurse reverting back to his historical norms and prior established level of play.
Of course, there is no argument in favor of him being value for his $9.25MM – sure, maybe, if he could replicated the 2021 56-game season as his norm but that’s not a reasonable projection.
At the same time, Nurse has a LONG history of being much better than he’s been over the last couple of season. Its interesting and notable that his game seems to have fallen off around the time he got some help on the left side with the Ekholm acquisition.
Prior thereto, Nurse was the locked 1D in this team for years. He did share that with Klef for a while but, since Klef went away, Nurse was THE MAN and played some of the toughest minutes in the league and did well, even without McDavid on the ice.
One would think that he could be a huge anchor to a strong second pairing given his history as the anchor of a first paring.
The last two games have been strong for Nurse. Yes, he will make mistakes – sure, maybe he needed to move the puck quicker and not get it slashed off his stick leading to a goal against. Many will remember that one play and refuse to acknowledge the15-20 positive plays he made through the game.
The Nurse we saw over the last two games is a solid $7.5MM d-man and that player can help this team win Stanley as the 2LD.
Hmmm… Maybe they should place Nurse back in that 1D role? Oh, how controversial.
Stats are best represented in blue and red bubbles, I miss the bubbles.
Speaking of which, where’s rickibear lately? I need to know whether Eric Gryba or Mark Fayne was the most underrated Oiler of all time.
Who knows, maybe Josh Brown is epic at blocking the box.
I don’t know Mr The Bear but I often enjoyed the chaos his strong opinions would create in the comments. Unfortunately, I believe he passed away due to cancer a few years ago. That said, glad to see the concept of the Ricki box lives on.
Unfortunately, I doubt Josh Brown scores well by that metric either.
I follow @rickithebear77 on twitter and he is still tweeting away about his open shot/closed goal research papers.
He posts his indecipherable tweets in really random places, inserts himself in football commentary, etc.
Still posting up to June of this year.
Good fun, good follow for random nonsense.
I’m not on twitter so I wouldn’t know, but that’s great to hear. He has disappeared from LT so I guess I assumed the worst
Jesting aside, it’s always good to have people putting their energies into understanding the game better. Hope he’s still around and has many years left.
Incorrect. That would be either Kevin Gravel, or Mark Fistric.
Marc Fistric! I knew I was forgetting somebody!
(Obviously he must therefore be underrated.)
Looking forward to watching Philp play a couple of game this weekend. He was very good in his first game of the year a week ago.
Derek Ryan has been OK but he’s had a tough go on the PK and there is every chance that Philp could/will make the team better over Ryan. Of course, that’s not happening now but, while Ryan is playing OK, he’s not quite making the positive impact that Corey Perry is – what a start to his season!
Podz has been good. But I think Philp would have a more positive affect on the team, being an RHC. I would suggest send Podkolzin down and bring Philp up.
Leon- McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Henrique-Brown
Nuge-Philp-Arvidsson
Janmark-Ryan-Perry
Come to think of it they would also accrue $250,000 more cap space. However is Podz waiver exempt?
Podz would need to clear waivers to send down.
KK has lots and lots of options. Need to get the PP and PK worked out as 5v5 is good so far.
The more centers on the roster, the better.
Isn’t there a fair chance some other team claims Podz on waivers?
They claimed Lavoie. So yeah, Podz would probably get claimed. Unfortunately.
You’d have to admit, it would be a fabulous opportunity for Philp to play with two veterans like Nuge & Arvidsson.
Ryan has been better than OK. Just last night his work down low in the corner and on the boards allowed the play to continue and led to Kulak’s first goal.
Ryan and Perry are playing great for a 4th line assignment. Hoping to see the ‘old guys’ play every game for at least another month – then bring in Philp to platoon and give them every 3rd game off.
The center depth is good, though not as good as any team HH mentions (ha ha).
They are following your preferences and it’s been working. Still wish they had Philp up but I can understand the thinking. Accrue as much as possible as quickly as possible. Then get a younger guy who can give Perry a blow and fill the same role (Kostin) and call up Philp. Perry has been great but he can’t keep it up longterm. If you have Philp/Kostin subbing in for Ryan/Perry it’s all good.
Personally, while I am amazed at the math on here and have been for 20 years, I generally skip over the minutiae to the precis to understand what the point was. I am much more a narrative man, so I appreciate the stories, the links between player, team and place, and frankly I would not read this blog any longer if that were missing. It’s the human connection that has me here everyday for the last 2 decades.
Very well put, thank you. Although I really enjoyed On The Clock, I would love to read a book that somehow wound all the stories, humour and poignant thoughts together that we’ve been fortunate to enjoy here. “The Box” story should be posted at least once a year!
I find it a touch funny that our intrepid host feels the need to apologize for not being nerdy enough on a hockey site. At the end of the day, while math is math, it is humans that play the game and intangibles do exist. The analytics do inform, but IMO there is more to the game than just spreadsheets.
Building off W’s comment below, I think the Oilers should cut down on the PP1s playing time right now, considering how little success they are having, as well as considering the 2nd PP has scored twice already (not officially, but close enough). Since the top unit is together at evens anyway, why not limit the time they are playing on the PP, and give the secondary guys the opportunity to foil the preparation the other team has made to counter the PP1 only?
I think there is enough in the PP ability of Arvidsson, Skinner, Perry, Nurse and Ekholm to justify time invested.
I get what coach K.K is doing by trying to get the P.P-1 going but why force it. The Bottom of our order should be recieving minutes based on how they’re playing. Nuge-Hyman- Bouchard should be taking a seat for Skinner-Perry-Arvidsson-Nurse. If this team can score by committee and share the wealth will be much more balanced come the real season.
I also have seen other teams use the “pressure all over” PK approach on the 1PP, which seems to limit their effectiveness. Getting some guys who approach it differently than the wheel and deal limits the PK preparation for the Oilers. If the 2PP can hold the puck effectively along the boards, force some shots and bang pucks in, then all of a sudden the other teams can’t rely on one approach to playing against the Oilers when shorthanded.
We have the horses, we should let them all run.
Never change what you are doing LT! You and Stauffer have been my daily Oilers news for the past 20+ years. You both to Oil Country are like my two fav Hip songs, “Long Time Running” and “Ahead by a Century”! Keep on rocking LT!!!
Oilers looked good last night. I thought the new additions played well. The Oilers will need that depth when guys like Nuge are quiet. I am concerned about the defence but let’s see how this new group plays out. Nurse played better last night after some concerning play last game where he was dumping the puck into his partner’s corner for a 50/50 battle, yikes. Pickard looked great last night.
Their defensive play seems to be coming around.
Which leads to more offense.
And… Better goaltending.
Better performance for sure. Special teams however, not so much. Can understand the PK needing time to gel but the PP has same personnel as last year???
We should all leave perfection to God. That being said, The Wichita Lineman is as close to that in its simplicity and complexity that you may find in music, imho.
you hit the nail on the head my friend!….simple yet complex enough it through James Taylor for a loop…please see following.
https://youtu.be/VQxWSlDVtaA?si=0Apw1fRb6BTabHdS
Great framing of the discussion of numbers. In my day job, I get to teach high school math and have observed that rarely is the issue just about calculations but is just as much about how we frame numbers and interpret data- skills that are hard to teach and take patience to think through. We appreciate the work you do with the data that you have, LT!
Never change LT. We have the very scary thing called ‘Freedom’. The freedom to not read this blog. The freedom to start your own. The freedom to do most things.
Seriously people, if you have axes to grind, find somewhere else.
Dear Lowetide:
Thoroughly fed up at the climax of last season’s playoffs, have not watched anything at all until the final 3 and a half minutes of last night’s game.
From what this luddite, non-math(because I’m seeking other things sees) – the Oilers look fantastic.
Perhaps they’re not ready for the playoffs – in October.
But from what I saw, they’re playing top level hockey. The kind the other team needs to play their best against.
No one knows what next year’s playoffs will bring, but one thing is 100% clear to me – this team kicks like no Oilers team since the Pronger playoff team except it’s probably far more skilled. With skill being a valuable commodity in sports.
See y’all in 2025.
Funny… and speaking of stats, the Oilers were only credited with two hits after the second period. Clearly not what I saw on the ice.
That was clearly home rink bias. That shouldn’t happen in a professional sports league. They should be told by the league office to not let a 12 yr old Preds fan count hits!
— what no more Hunter Death Marchs?!
LT the blog is acting up today. It should say Mathtide – Stats Talk on the Ole Ron Fisher.
I’m 100% taking the piss.
Couldn’t watch the game last night but it seems like the big boys are still stuck in the mud. Fair?
Top line looked much better last night. Connor was flying at times and they had a dominant shift which culminated with the 3 2 goal. Nice but of pushback at a pivotal moment.
Draisaitl was playing great, often the 1st forward back, carrying the puck, making passes no one should be blessed to make. Was nice to see the top line factor in positively and not take any dumb penalties.
LT, I’ve said it before, and will say it again… I have learned so much here over the years. I remember being terrified by the comments sections some decade plus ago. Just so much I was clearly never going to understand. Now, I can understand your numbers, and I find myself scanning them to see if they match the eye test. Often they do and there’s some days I just can’t see what the numbers say. That’s about as far as I will take it, and yes, I come for the story, every damn day.
Lastly, I think Pickard should make the ‘P’ a little larger on his mask.
so much rambling. Where are the stats from yesterdays game?
Well aren’t you rude.
Knock yourself out: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20242025&game=20069
Just scroll down, read what you want.
If you’ve invited yourself in for dinner, don’t complain about the hosts cooking. (Actually even if you were invited – still don’t complain!)
I’d be interested to see the zone time stats they throw out sometimes on the SN broadcasts over longer samples. I think this is what Corsi originally was trying to explain but just didn’t have the data.
With zone time stats you could start to look at things like GF/GA or SF/SA per minute of zone time.
While I’m wishing for new stats I’d also like to see possession change stats (which would be baked into zone time). How often do players turn pucks over or win 50/50 pucks? Maybe the NHL teams are already looking at this stuff.
NHL.com has released player tracking for goals, which would imply they have player tracking for the whole game monitoring player movement.
The data is scrapeable. There is another renaissance on the horizon once hockey-mad coders start parsing out the movements into game states and areas of interest.
The NHL.com has team data now, including zone time.
(https://edge.nhl.com/en/team/20232024-regular-EDM)
The Oilers were 93rd percentile (I guess 3rd in the league) in even strength Ozone time last season.
That matches quite nicely with their 3rd place ranking in even strength CF%.
Someone with more time than I could run a correlation of the two numbers across the league to see how well the match (surely not quite as well as the above suggests).
Hey – thanks! I’ll check it out.
This made me chuckle because it perfectly captures how I’ve felt about the fancy stats world over the last half decade or so.
LT, quite a bit is written in admiration of your prose but after a decade of reading, what keeps catching me off-guard is your habit of giving voice to one of my gut feelings – and doing so with concision and wit!
I feel like I ruffled some feathers yesterday so here is my put up or shut up. I apologise for my tone yesterday. Unfortunately I had to go to bed because I worked early so I couldn’t continue the discussion.
As an example I am using Ty Embersons expected goal percentage for this year.
My issue with small sample size:
Emberson has suited up for 4 games this year with the following xGF%:
43.8
89.2
15.5
67.8
Sample size: 4
Mean average: 54.1
Standard deviation: 27.46
95% confidence interval: 54.075 +/- 26.91
So from a statistics standpoint, next game 19 out of 20 times we can expect his xGF% to be between 27.2 and 81.0. Which doesn’t really tell us anything. Statistically he is expected to either play great or terrible.
95 percent confidence intervals is probably to accurate for hockey so let’s use a 50 percent confidence interval to tighten that range up.
50 percent confidence interval: 54.075 +/- 9.26
So it is a coin flip if his xGF% is going to be between 44.8 and 63.3 percent or outside that range from a statistical point of view.
The only conclusion I can draw from these numbers is that he might have a good game or he might have a bad game. But you don’t need stats to tell you that.
His corsi percentage is a bit tighter so that will give us some better results:
CF%
51.4
86.8
40.0
46.9
Sample size: 4
Standard deviation: 18.09
CF% average: 56.275
95% confidence interval: 38.6-74.0 CF%
50% confidence interval: 50.18-62.37 CF%
So there is a 50 percent chance he has a good game and a 50 percent chance he has a poor game or a freaking incredible game.
This is what I mean when I say small sample size statistics are meaningless. They have no predictive power and more often than not will mislead you.
First off, excellent summary of the first batch of numbers.
To me, it’s all about how you frame these statistics. I look at the numbers you posted and I don’t conclude they are meaningless, or try to predict anything. It simply tells you the player has been inconsistent, and shown no hint of that ending. Which is perfectly reasonable for a 30 NHL game player.
Statistics don’t HAVE to be predictive, in hockey, they can help you just process what you just saw. But if you threw numbers up for some other players (Ekholm?) i’d be surprised if they weren’t both tighter and displaying a trend (improvement?). So you could infer (a step down from prediction) that he is going in the right direction. Not much, but it’s something.
It seems from the discussion yesterday you are hung up on, and assuming other posters/blog author are using statistics solely for, prediction. But that is only part of the eventual utility.
I think i disagree with this. Generally the stats we value are based on predictive of wins. Shots, Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals, Dangerous Fenwick. I feel they are framed in a hypothetical future where the game is played again. That’s why when they lose bit have a 70%xGF, I feel better about it because in a hypothetical future where the game is played again they are likely to win.
And at the end of the day the only statistics that matters in hockey is how many wins you get.
You are lumping everybody else in your own version of “we”. Myself I am happy to look at the various stats from a previous game and suss out a bit more info on who had a good game, and who didn’t. Nothing to do with predicting the future. I don’t think I’m only in this usage. Or to follow your last point, who helped most in the win/loss, and who didn’t.
And for all that, people still tune into the news when the early returns on exit polls get reported.
— It’s of course understandable that statistics isn’t widely understood and or used incorrectly
— Fuges breakdown is traditional text book stats. We never see CI or stnd deviation or R-squares of “hockey analytics” This is a challenge for those who have used stats in school or work.
— So yeah it is “frustrating” for those that have an education or have learned stats or use it in their work (I’m a finance guy: this is how we use stats) when missaplied “stats” are used as narratives and not understood
— I thought yesterday’s discussion was interesting, and I don’t believe anyone was trying to call anyone out or make fun of them or being “critical”
— It is a great blog and as long as people stay in their lane or recognize their strengths and weaknesses (or play a heel to antagonize!) it’s a great spot to hear opinions on the Oil and other cool stuff music food jokes etc.
— It’s just hockey: owned by a billionaire, played by millionaires, broadcasted by the wealthiest corporations all for profit. Fans pay a lot to see and engage in this sport
— Lowetide is “free”. And it’s awesome for all us Oiler engaged folks.
PAYPALS anyone as a reminder…
It feels like the issue here is largely semantic. People often use the word “theory” incorrectly, but are rarely called out for it. I mean, educated people use the word “theory” incorrectly all the time in newspapers. Are they slammed for it? No. Even scientists with paying jobs mess it up. They aren’t slammed because people understand the English language is interpreted differently in different contexts.
Similarly, the word “stats” is a floppy word. In the academic world, it has a significantly tighter meaning. But this is a sports blog, it’s not Harvard.
IMO the comment yesterday about going over to your friend’s house and criticising their BBQ technique was bang on. I think people are forgetting the point of the blog.
When my son learned how to read he had a phase where he was really fussy about pronouncing words the way they were written. It’s “Jah-la-peenos”, he insisted on it, when saying “Jalapeno”. This is what we’re doing, but for stats.
— I didn’t see that BBQ comment. : that’s a good analogy and for sure that would suck
— I come here for the good BBQ: it always tastes good. I might go to the bathroom and toss some of the BBQ I have wrapped up into the garbage if I don’t like it but I never let the host know…
— I think you’re saying that the math that is mostly cited in hockey blogs isn’t “statistics” per se. I agree with this.
— what many take issue with is using “math/pseudo stats” to make incorrect conclusions or false inferences.
— I like to slow cook my ribs pre in the oven wrapped in foil with beer oignon garlic apples then put them on BBQ and sauce them up and get a little dark. One of my buddies has a smoker he smokes them all day and serves them dry rub style. We all agree they both taste great …
When I was a young pup I would get a bit agitated when people would misuse the word “math” or “mathematics”. Like, people would say “just do the math”. And I would interrupt them and say “I think you mean to say, just do the arithmetic?”
I like BBQ too. Today, it’s just BBQ of convenience. My wife and son love hamburgers, so I’ll make hamburgers. Nothing that would win a hamburger competition, but good-enough for us.
You put a lot of effort into meaningless stats. I bet you’re fun at parties.
Remember Eakins the smartest man in the room who made Ference a 3rd pairing D Captain and then he revolutionized the game with “The Swarm”
Im still pissed about Blues poaching Broberg.
I’m pissed at Skinny and Arvi sitting on the bench during power plays.
I don’t that is the way to build team unity.
40 games from now this is going to be an even bigger issue. Kid is taking off in St. Louis…
He tends to get broken easy. So, we’ll see.
I said at the time, acknowledging it was hyperbole, that it felt like the Oilers window shrunk from 10 years to 2 years with those offer sheets. I feel like the perpetually signing UFA model can only sustain so long. Hope I’m wrong.
On the contrary – it means that not only can your window be wider – rebuilds are wholly unnecessary if you know what you’re doing.
The problem is a combination that many don’t know what they’re doing, and they actually like the lack of pressure and urgency that comes from a rebuild. It allows the less competent to hide behind a process and keep jobs they shouldn’t have.
— The “window” is prime McDrai…
— Crosby Malkin have aged out of their window. One day that’s us…That’s how it works in professional team sport. Always.
Tampa kept it going remarkably well with little to no internal development.
They even kinda pioneered a new model with how they acquired Blake Coleman and Brandon Hagel. Didn’t work quite as well with Tanner Jeannot, though…
No one cares about Peter Broganp
Well that isn’t true. The Oilers don’t get to walk on the offer sheets just because they are rare. For instance, the team put itself in a uniquely dangerous situation (two players available for OS). AND all they had to do with Broberg is play the man. He wasn’t asking for $20 million a year, he was saying he would like to play in the NHL.
The Oilers were convinced of vincent Desharnais, who is also gone. I don’t think the story has been written, but said a year ago (many times, although our friend godot lead the league) that the Oilers should have been playing him.
Edmonton management owns this. Zero chance fans are wrong on this issue.
Regardless if the Oilers played Broberg or not he has been asking out for multiple summers, if he plays all 82 games last year does that change the available cap space? RFA seasons are suppose to be affordable for the organization especially one trying to use every dollar available to push for the Lordo. Overpaying your RFA to simply appease the player leaves the team with multiple holes to fill without the funds to fill them.
So the Oilers could of paid Broberg his demands, and they’d have no 2nd or 3rd lines. Pick your poison.
The Oilers didn’t just walk on the offer sheet though, they created space to absorb the extreme overpay then made a deal with St.Louis.
The Oilers did make mistakes no doubt about it, yet the player and agent at no point in time were willing to be a reasonable dance partner.
Vincent is being healthy scratched while being over paid, we all saw him getting overpaid coming down the line.
It sets a bad precedent to pay your RFA 3x the going rate because another organization is willing to set themselves up for a painful future.
Every single RFA Blue will now be looking for and have the leverage to ask for more then they would have before. This isn’t going to be a one off scenario, I expect many outrageous offer sheets to be coming down the line.
You are wrong. 100% chance. The coach didn’t play him while management kept him on the roster. The coach ignored him for so long management was forced to send him to the A just so the kid could keep getting reps. The prior coach actually played him. His not playing last season is not on management.
Did the new management bungle the extension? Yes. But the problem the player had was created by the coach and we have no idea if management was even in a salvageable situation.
This response is to the overall thread.
In my opinion, the mistake was made over the last few years in not finding a way to get Broberg more ice time in the NHL – in particular after he had a VERY strong 6 week stretch playing 14 minutes nightly as 3LD with Bouchard. He proved to be an every day NHL d-man at that point but, due to circumstances (Ekholm addition and Deharnais up for the PK) “lost his job” and was NEVER given another opportunity – only minutes in a 7D set-up.
I don’t think mistakes were made pre-offer sheet this off-season. Almost everyone expected these two to come in around $900K- $1.25MM depending on term and that was a reasonable expectation given the history of RFAs coming off their ELC and not being established players.
The plan, and it was 100% reasonable, was a few years of massive value contracts where they would out perform their cap hits – that’s what the CBA RFA structure is set up for – this is the one time the team has the leverage.
For sure, if they each would have signed for apx $2MM, while that would have been deemed a massive over-pay to market comparable, they likely would have ended up being value for it – that doesn’t change the fact that the org was grinding them for value contract – and that made perfect sense.
They were big losses but the Broberg contract is such a massive over-pay to comparables, it was unmatchable. He’s making more than Thomas Harley who signed this off-season (let alone Evan Bouchard).
So, just to be clear, you don’t think either management or coaching bears any culpability? This was more a numbers game, both in terms of depth and dollars?
I don’t disagree it is possible for all parties to have acted rationally and still have a (from the org’s perspective) bad outcome. I’m not sure that’s the case here. I think if KK had shown more trust in Broberg over the middle of last season, things may have ended up differently. Not convincingly so, but shaded better in our favor than they were. I don’t put all that on KK either; some blame would have to go on the players for digging the hole they did at the beginning of the season, forcing the Oilers into playoff mode in November. We’ve seen that happen to bubble players in the past too, where prospects have been unable to audition because the team often only does just enough and only when they have to. Playoffs have been in doubt late in the season for a big chunk of 97’s career.
We’ll never know of course, needing alternate universes and all that. Just nags at me, like it does you, that Broberg didn’t see the ice more last season. From accounts he took a step forward his last stint in Bako so maybe it was necessary for him to be the player he is today. Again we’ll never know if that was needed or whether he could have taken the same step with NHL playing time.
The thing about getting more of a look last year, conditional upon showing well, is it would have affected how the Oilers would have valued and treated him in the off-season. Maybe less grind and more urgency, before news of what kind of money he could earn reached him..
.
Not sure how you get that given much of my post criticized Broberg’s deployment and use for the last 18 months in the org.
I don’t provide blame on Bowman for trying to get these guys signed to market standard value contracts coming off their ELCs.
that’s why I requested clarity. Largely because of this line:
I’m pissed at Stecher’s cyst.
Cysted Stecher is the worst Twisted Sister cover band ever.
Thanks for the assist.
Which means that they are still one notch better than actual Twisted Sister.