Winter is coming, and that brings both good and bad. The Oilers two wins this week suggest the team is good enough to avoid early-season disaster (as happened a year ago) but let’s see how this plays out. There are still challenging moments ahead.
The Vegas Golden Knights have money now, everyone is worried they’ll spend it right away. The Golden Knights tend to wait until the deadline, acquire a player who is younger than the average deadline exit (Noah Hanifin a a recent example) and then sign him long term. If gives the team more peak seasons and is a brilliant ploy. Edmonton might want to try that someday. It is diabolical on Pollockian levels.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner, Darnell Nurse, Calvin Pickard, Connor Brown. Week 1 for the Oilers didn’t follow the script but was entertaining. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 2-3-0, four points in five games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 2-3-0, four points in five games
A nice correction for the team, Kris Knoblauch has been the coach for some exceptional winning streaks and perhaps the Oilers are in one now. The Stars are not an easy opponent, and afternoon games are traditionally an anathema for the Edmontons. Add in that it is in Dallas, and the word abominable comes to mind. The Stars are 4-1-0 this season and have allowed just eight goals in five games. Hey, that’s great!
KRIS KNOBLAUCH
I’m not sure the team can run Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line for long, but it’ll take a loss to shuffle based on past decisions by the coaching universe. Experts tell us a team need 200 minutes to know if something works, that sign post was past long ago with the Glimmer Twins. They’re magic. In 40 minutes together at five-on-five, they are 2-1 goals and 73 percent expected goals.
McDavid solo this year is 1-4 without Leon, don’t know what that’s about but Knoblauch clearly moved the big stars together for a reason. Draisaitl solo is 0-2, so what the h-e-double-hockey-sticks? Early days and small samples are clearly a big part of the equation.
Still, those solo totals are worrisome and it makes sense the coach would load up his best players on a road line when they’re struggling alone when at home.
Adam Henrique’s line looks good, 2-3 goals in 58 minutes while also hanging a 67 percent expected goal share five-on-five on the hockey world.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 0-1 with a 35 percent expected goal share in 34 five-on-five minutes. The Nuge is one of my favourites but he couldn’t ever push the river as a center without strong wingers like Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. I don’t think he can outscore on the third line, even with reasonable wingers. Maybe I’m wrong.
Derek Ryan is the player I suggested should be moved to the wing. So far this season, in 35 five-on-five minutes, his line is 1-0 goals and 69 percent expected goals. Noah Philp may not get here before Christmas.
Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher have played 21:48 together and are 1-1 goals with a 55.5 percent expect goal share.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are 3-3 goals in 83 minutes with an expected goal percentage of 63. That’s five-on-five.
Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson have played 37 minutes, are 1-2 goals and their expected goal share is 76 percent.
I hate afternoon games in Dallas. Mike Modano is long gone but this team is a royal pain in the ass for the Oilers. Maybe last spring turned the tide.
The only forwards that played less at 5 on 5 than Nuge and Arvidsson last game were Podz and Ryan. The Henrique line with Skinner and Brown is being deployed (and performing as) the 2nd line recently.
1 game.
Yes. I mean Henrique is a more established 2C than RNH.
We all love Nuge, but man is he having a rough start. At NST he’s bottoms in just about everything. Hopefully it’s just his typical fall malaise and flu or whatever. I think it was Holland’s plan that by going long and as low as possible on some contracts that they would slide down the list as the player did
I think Nuge has arrived a little earlier than expected at the top of the hill, and the flat cap kept the contract % higher than expected, which increases the cap squeeze. I am no fan of no trade deals. I can live with some clauses, but not being able to make ‘fair’ moves easily makes hockey teams worse and diminishes the game. Not referring to Nuge specifically, but being stuck with players that aren’t living up to contracts, or having to take penalties that are pretty heavy to move on, isn’t the best thing for the game
The NFL takes things too far, but hopefully the next deal is more balanced to keeping the game its the best it can be
Dallas’s 4 wins haven’t been against any top teams:
Seattle
Islanders
Predators
Sharks
Afternoon game plus the first raodtrip of the season is usually team bonding time. And the first stop happened to be party central, Nashville.
oh boy, could be a sleepy start.
RNH on the 3rd line… not so fast LT. Is this a gut feel, or are you basing this projection on a line-up that perhaps I haven’t seen, TOI, or his wingers?
Scheduled Loss Alert!
Anyone been watching Condors? Is Savoie playing wing or centre? Sorry if this has been mentioned already.
My daughter flew down to Dallas from Victoria for this game. Her first ever NHL game! Hoping for a big performance from the good guys
Agreed about RNH.
I don’t think we can really consider him a centre anymore. Maybe if his line gets cherry minutes.
I hope I am wrong because allowing Drai and McD to play together without sacrificing too much on the other lines would be great. Typically, McDrai needs to be so dominant that they can outscore enough for two lines.
Did this mean to say 83 minutes total, or is there a malfunction at the junction between the 63 mins and 83 mins you have listed as five-on-five?
It’s 82 minutes. NO idea why I did that. Will fix and thanks.
Essentially, The Skinner-Henrique-Brown line is the second line with Leon & Connor paired up together on the top line. You are absolutely correct with your thought that Nuge can’t push the river as a center. That is why Noah Philp needs to be called up, especially if they want to run Leo & Connor together on the top line. Nuge can’t cover for them anymore. However, the Henrique line with Skinner is capable as a second unit. I’m not sure how they’re going to get Philp up, but the team needs his skill set ASAP. Ryan can hold his own as a 4c with a little help from Janmark , unless they can pick up another 4c somehow. Playing third line minutes is ideal for Philp with a couple veteran wingers. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Ok. Maybe they can trade Podz for a draft pick, sooner rather than later.
Perspicacity!
Like yesternight, a nontet of NAmateurs can see action (action). Read all about it:
The full NCAA complement is on the sched, including Paul Fischer and #18 Notre Dame. Including their lone exhibition match, he has five assists in four games as their 1LD.
Mazura leads his St. Lawrence squadron with 1+3 in five games.
Lachance tops #3 BU’s scoring with 1+4 in three games, while Copponi has yet to get off the schneid.
By netting his first goal last night, Berry has already matched last year’s total (in 59 GP).
The Vermonters and the Flintians complete the sched.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 4 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance, Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Skookumchuck time.
We’re doing BC now? Last I checked, that’s enemy territory…
I don’t know. Parts of the Okanagon are basically Alberta colonies.
Some of us have infiltrated! Skookumchuck has to be one of the all time great names
Just the areas that are on Mountain time, i.e. the East Kootenays and environs. Figured I’d sprinkle in a few places, as I quite enjoy that area.
And yes, Skookumchuck is a cool name.
It’s such a cool name that there are three Skookumchuks in B.C. Two are down here on the West Coast.
Drove an Aussie friend around once and Skookumchuck was their fave and got some laughs
Funny here on the South island we use the word Skookum. Meaning big and strong.
I’m with you LT. Oilers early season. On the road. In an afternoon game. Against a tough opponent. This game has a 6-2 loss vibe about it. Not even going to bother tuning in to this one. Will just ruin the rest of my day.
Good test for the Oilers today, but too bad it’s an afternoon game where the Oilers tend to be on the losing end. Speaking of tending, let’s see how SSkinner plays today.
Thanks for all you do here LT!
Oilers have had a rep of being crap in day games simce the ‘80s, but they’ve actually been a pretty good matinée team for a few years now.
Last year they lost their first 2 early games (6 GF, 11 GA), then went 8-0-1 the rest of the way (37 GF, 12 GA). Included was a 4-3 overtime win at Dallas on Feb 17, with Evan Bouchard the OT hero.
Thanks for this Bruce, as always. I was feeling like more recently the matinees having been the team death knell quite as they once were, but didnt have the recall or inclination to look into this further.