Experts say that 20 games is the period where we can begin to trust the math. If you’ve ever poured cement, this is the period where things are set enough to draw conclusions, although a dog or a bird (or a kid!) could change the final aesthetic. So, on the morning after a disappointing loss, the overview of these Edmonton Oilers is decidedly better than one year ago. The Oilers have improved. The sky is not falling. If you say “I never thought Connor McDavid should be captain” you’re saying it because you feel that way. It is an emotional response to a loss, but isn’t a view with legs. Along with the ‘fire Dustin Schwartz’ brigade, logic and reason tell us there’s simply no way to know from the outside.
What do we know after 20 games? These Oilers are better than they were a year ago, within spitting distance of first place in the Pacific Division, and have a coaching staff that is trying to unlock the best version of this team. It’s a fascinating time to be viewing the Oilers.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner and his skills landing on the fourth line in recent days. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 4-3-1, 9 points in 8 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-8-2, 20 points in 19 games
I pay close attention to five-on-five totals. It’s the biggest game state, it’s the most important individual game state, and the numbers get a little shady on both special teams even in a 20-game look. At five-on-five over the first 19 games, Edmonton’s goalies have delivered a .906 save percentage. That’s No. 21 overall. You want that to be better, and it is since October 15 (.916, No. 14 overall) and I do believe things are going in a better direction. The coaching staff is running with Calvin Pickard more in this part of the season, makes complete sense based on performance.
The team’s five-on-five goals-60 (2.27, No. 13 overall) trails expected goals-60 (2.85, No. 6 overall) and we can expect a spike at some point in the season. If Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman cash last night on great chances, then we’re having a different conversation and we aren’t talking about the one Calvin Pickard shot he should have stopped (Pickard has been a fine goalie for Edmonton this season, and many want him replaced. Emotional responses can be understandable and yet ill-advised as an actual plan).
After 19 games, I don’t think the ideas presented daily in the comments section are viable as course changes on the current season. Stripping McDavid of his captaincy, trading Stuart Skinner and benching Evan Bouchard might make you feel better, but are not things Kris Knoblauch should do.
THE NUMBERS
The most encouraging signs last night were Ty Emberson’s continued improvement and good results, Calvin Pickard’s five-for-five in HDSC saved, and good moments from three skill wingers (Nuge, Hyman and Jeff Skinner). I think we can agree that scoring slumps by Edmonton wingers have been a thing in the first 19 games, and those slumps should ease lord willing and the creek don’t rise.
Evan Bouchard is in a terrible funk, but the Oilers have to play him heavy minutes. I wouldn’t take him off the power play, but a tweak to the five-on-four that funnels the puck elsewhere, and a new alignment, wouldn’t go amiss.
Leon Draisaitl had a tough game, running counter to his brilliance through the early part of the season. It happens.
CEILING AND FLOOR
The Oilers ceiling and floor are as wide as any SC contender in memory. G7 SCF wasn’t that long ago, and the SC hangover surely has ended. This team’s lowest ebb is expansion level. Incredibly.
I wrote the words above last night on X, and believe this to be true. I think the Oilers are locked in on the roster construction as things stand, and do not believe that any of Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard or Connor McDavid should be traded, benched or stripped of captaincy. These are severe and emotional moves, the kinds of things one would expect from Harold Ballard or a group of fans understandably upset about a 3-0 loss to a lesser team on a Monday night.
The way is clear. For this season.
I wonder about Stan Bowman.
He is not attached to Stuart Skinner, or Evan Bouchard. Come summer, it’s possible Bowman resets the roster with some major moves.
I want to be clear. I believe trading Evan Bouchard would be as dumb as dirt. I believe Stuart Skinner can backstop this team to a Stanley Cup and that he is the best $2.6 million dollar goaltender in captivity.
What I think doesn’t amount to diddly squat. Stan Bowman is the general manager and may not feel this way. What can Stan Bowman get for Evan Bouchard in trade? It would be a famous trade, and not all famous trades are good ones. It’s important to remember Bowman is in no way attached to Evan Bouchard. The rest of this season will be central to how this story turns out.
A busy day on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us from the road and give us the latest on the lineup and the mood of the team. We’ll also chat about possible recalls, Josh Brown’s debut and what comes next. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
10 years ago the team was stuck in the middle of an 11 game losing streak. That team could not catch a break, lots of 1 goal loses there. I remember feeling like the sun would never shine on the Oilers again. Connor and Leon have been a gift to watch since then and I always want to watch every game, that was not the case 10 years ago.
Tonight’s game was a repeat of the Montreal game with a different result.
Bouchard shined yet he was walked several times but they did not score. Bouchard and Ekholm were again split for a breakaway but no goal resulted.
The game was very, very similar. Skinner stopped a couple more. Bounces went Oilers way. Different result, different comments section, but very similar game.
I don’t really agree with the high level assessment of the game.
The Oilers got an early lead and basically controlled almost the entire game, creating scoring chances consistently (often with forced takeaways but also off MTL mistakes).
The outcome was never really in doubt even if a couple of he lines (Hyman/Nuge/Henrique) were meh.
Kulak with 23 min of ice time tonight
hes Bonafide
Nice of you to finally notice.
So in chasing the game tonight Holloway had 9:23 of ice time.
Jesse Puljujarvi has 8 points same as Dylan with fewer games played
He had 7 shots on net the prior game, zero tonight – I’m not sure what that means…..
Harpers Hair
Reply to GaetanHaasWasAMediocreHockeyPlayer
November 18, 2024 8:30 pm
Pretty much a scheduled loss tomorrow night.
Second game of a back to back…4th game in 5 nights…Ottawa is 5-2-1 on home ice.
The curse continues!
Next, tell us how the McDrai era of Oilers will never win a cup.
His level of consistency is absolutely impressive
I think HH is the reason why Demko hasn’t played yet.
Secret die hard Oilers fan going Opposite George
Yesterday I was concerned that our team had forgotten how to play hockey. Overnight they each had cathartic moments that somehow rejuvenated their ability to execute. Good on them, solid overnight recovery.
Connor was feelin’ it, Drai was as usual impressive, Podz does his job really good (he’s gonna score any minute now), and Nuge slayed the snake that bit him.
Emberson is impressing with his development. Stu was great.
McDavid 10 pts back of MacKinnon.
On Nov 8 the gap was 15. MacKinnon has scored 9 pts in the last 5 games, so he’s not exactly slouching, either.
At the risk of sounding like I’m not appreciative of the two points, man would I just like this team to win 4-1 instead of 5-2. The extra goals we give up when we should be focusing on defensive hockey are backbreakers to goalies.
Well, in all fairness to the Oilers, it was 5-1. That last goal shouldn’t have been allowed. It was clearly a high stick. Not sure what the refs were looking at.
And if it was legit, it was a solid deflection
Summarizing!
Neither Nicholl nor New Samwise were recipients of soup. They shall have to subsist on pickled mushrooms instead.
Prospecting takes a break until Thor’s Day.
Was waiting until the end of the game, but that’s 5 straight games with a perfect PK, 12/12, and they’re 3-1-1 in that span. Even fixing half of the special teams makes a difference
1-1-1 on the road is cause for some concern, but it’s not a disaster
I’m liking Emberson lately, and Podkolzin is on fire right now
I hope Podz can find some goals. Smart and a gamer
Is it really that concerning – it was 3 in 4 nights (and 4 on 6 in 4 different cities).
They are 6-3-1 in their last 10
10-5-2 in their last 17
Podz is playing lights out – he’s a real creator of ice tilts.
Emberson has been very physical and solid lately – he’s coming. I wish he was 15 pounds heavier.
Strong game by Skinner despite the late GA.
Agree, Skinner looked in control tonight. Good sign
Wait, I thought the pitchforks had him headed to Nashville😂
It’s ‘almost’ comical how clueless Skinner is defensively. No idea
Hyman is hurt, hopefully nothing major.
That’s two games in a row he’s been rocked
Honestly impressive game considering it is technically scheduled loss night.
Agreed. They are battling and capitalizing on a young team, as they should
I NEVER DOUBTED YOU RNH!!
Nuge misses the post on the inside!
BOOM!!! Ryan gets Nuge off the schneid!!!
Nuge with a beauty tip
5-1
Nice finish Nuge – just as I join the slander…
NUUUUGE!
That’s what now, 10 kills in a row?
Nuge continues to struggle…. hard!
No offence, but there’s a light at the end of Nuge’s tunnel of frustration
McDavid feeling that fall.
Kills me. He is so bad at contact I wish he’d save it up for special occasions. Off balance arms down, I bet that tweaked his core
Reminds me of the star quarterback that won’t slide until their body or head gives out
What on earth are you talking about?
I don’t agree with any of this.
I guess it depends how you see the contact happening. I see Connor not going in set, like his checks behind the offensive net where he goes in almost backwards. He came up sore for a meaningless awkward check
To me it’s obvious he isn’t used to hitting and is adding it to his game. I think every player should be willing, but depending on the role be calculated as to when. He is more important healthy than being in the top 5 in hits for forwards
Also, is the hyperbole always necessary?
He is in his 10th season in the NHL. Has been playing hockey his entire life. He has been the best player in every league he’s played in. He is a target in every single game. He is used to hitting and engaging in contact situations.
“He is so bad at contact” is not hyperbole?
Honestly, I don’t think we are watching the same hockey games.
Boys trying to live up to LT’s description of being a 4-3 team
Those are the plays that Skinner hates, I bet…lack of awareness and effort…
Perry in for Hyman on the PP. Fair enough.
Stetcher has a lot of try in his game, those feet are always pumping, but they really aren’t taking him anywhere quickly. He looks really slow pivoting and going back for pucks.
I maintain this team would look a lot better with Broberg, Holloway and McLeod instead of Henrique and Skinner.
And why are we comparing Holloway to Podzolkin? I don’t see why they both couldn’t be on this team.
1) The roster changes you suggest cost an extra $3MM
2) I compared some straight point stats between Holloway and Pods – solely to show that, for all the verbal about how great Holloway has been, Podz production is, well, higher at 5 on 5.
Some guys can’t get over their exes.
1) I believe that those 3 players would only cost 2 million more. The extra player to cover the 3rd player on the Oilers roster probably costs a million. Plus the Oilers were running a 21 man roster with 1 million in cap room. So suddenly they are only 1 million short in cap space.
Who’s to say what Broberg and Holloway would have signed for if the Oilers made a decent offer? Or if the offer sheets even get made if the Oilers aren’t tight against the cap?
2) How about comparing Holloway to Henrique or Skinner? Those are the players that took his cap space.
Pods really leaving his mark on this game. If he can keep this simple, hard nosed and aggressive game he’s gonna be hard to remove from Connor or Drai’s wing.
Unfortunate timing.
Knowing what I do of Podz personality and how he plays, i would suggest there was ZERO intent.
I don’t mean to pick on the guy, but I’ genuinely curious as to what it is that people see in Jeff Skinner that has so many insisting he get another shot in the top-6? Because I’m seeing nothing. Ineffective in transition, bad choices in defending & routes, poor board play, his positioning isn’t suggestive of a natural goal scorer. Or is it just that Nuge and Hyman are struggling?
Wait for it😉
Teams have been waiting for over a decade.
I think it’s a combination of both. Skinner has a history of being a difference maker in the offensive zone and he hasn’t been given time to settle in with either of 97 or 29. So people want to see if there is chemistry there..
Nuge is having a tough start to the season and Hyman has never been one to find another player in the o-zone. Once Hyman has the puck he’s going to work it to the front of the net and try to get a shot off.
Personally I don’t think 97 need finisher as much as they need him, they need players that can think and play the game at their speed. Nuge was doing it last year. There’s a chance Skinner can do it, and I think people are just curious to see if he can.
After this game I’d rather they keep Podz there.
I know Bouch looked bad on that but that was a pretty great move. Seen Drai make many a top defenders look bad using that move…
I’m cheering for Bouch and think he’s really valuable to the team, but there’s a lot of wobble on the defensive side of his game presently. That was a bad look, though i agree it.was a good move. Concerned that looks like that are going to keep him off team Canada.
Ebersson is turning in to a bruiser – or showing his “bruiser game”.
A couple big thumps per game it seems.
Knoblauch sure likes Podkolzin (not that he shouldn’t, mind).
I wonder if he gave an endorsement prior to the trade.
Perhaps but, for me, he’s simply earned the trust with essentially consistent effort and almost always being on the right side of the puck – he’s very responsible and just creates puck possession.
In Vancouver, he was the “former top 10 pick” and the expectation that came with that never really goes away – tough to develop in to the type of player that he is becoming under that type of expectation (in a Canadian market).
Here, he is the piece that makes $1MM (for 2 years) and was acquired for a 4th round pick. Easy to live up to the cost expectations.
Yes, it certainly could just be that as well.
Knoblauch would have seen him at least a bit in the AHL, as well a little in Vancouver, as an opposing coach, though.
He did light up the Condors but Abbotsford would likely have played Hartford like once a year (at most).
They rarely play out of conference games.
A Russian Puljuarvi?
Sens pushing back, Oilers not as crisp right now.
This is danger time.
Please break up Nuge/Hyman…driving me nuts…they can’t win a battle rn…
At least they can only sewer one line if they are together.
lol That’s one way to look at it, I suppose.
4th goal was based off a high-end, playoff lookalike, PK.
BOOM!!! Drai finishes!!! Great play by Rico!!!
I was just typing that Drai had to shoot that instead of trying to pass to Connor! lol
One of these things is not like the others.
So he’ll be the Answer to Life, the Universe and Everything.
Perfect. (Or…Prefect?)
Ford Prefect is a great character.
“Don’t panic” should be words to live by for the Oilers
Go KK!!!
Henrique with a nice puck win to start the goal sequence
Wild that Drai didn’t shoot on that 2 on 1.
Atonement made!
Oilers likely to be shorthanded prior to the first TV TO this period….
I’m at the game tonight. Fourth Oilers game of the year. Not bad for being a fan in Ottawa.
Emberson looks super calm out there. Does little things right. Podz is having a game. Stetcher with the quick feet.
Good game so far.
Podz has more 5 on 5 points than Holloway, 5-4.
Holloway isn’t playing with McDavid or Draisaitl.
Podkolzin’s salary is such that it is not an either/or with Holloway and Podkolzin. The Oilers could have had both.
As of last night, Holloway isn’t really playing much at all if the team is behind…..
The post was simply to show Podz’ production isn’t off that of Holloway who is being lauded as a great signing – it was to show Podz’ value contract now that some small production is coming.
Tog dawgs are leading the way. Boots are moving. Skinner looks calm.
So far, so good.
Podz knows his roll and works hard to get the puck to McDrai. He can actually pass, which is nice to see after watching Hyman with the blinders on.
Please don’t put Nuge and Hyman on the same line. They are both play killers right now. Split them until the get it going again.
Seems like we always play better after a good fight, eh?
Podz leads the forwards in 5 on 5 icetime that period.
What is this extending the league all about? Looks weird.
BOOM!!! Connor feeling it!!!
3 points for Bouchard.
Podkolzin only 3 points behind Holloway on the season.
Holloway plays 1:26 on the PP per game – Podz, nothing.