Experts say that 20 games is the period where we can begin to trust the math. If you’ve ever poured cement, this is the period where things are set enough to draw conclusions, although a dog or a bird (or a kid!) could change the final aesthetic. So, on the morning after a disappointing loss, the overview of these Edmonton Oilers is decidedly better than one year ago. The Oilers have improved. The sky is not falling. If you say “I never thought Connor McDavid should be captain” you’re saying it because you feel that way. It is an emotional response to a loss, but isn’t a view with legs. Along with the ‘fire Dustin Schwartz’ brigade, logic and reason tell us there’s simply no way to know from the outside.
What do we know after 20 games? These Oilers are better than they were a year ago, within spitting distance of first place in the Pacific Division, and have a coaching staff that is trying to unlock the best version of this team. It’s a fascinating time to be viewing the Oilers.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner and his skills landing on the fourth line in recent days. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 4-3-1, 9 points in 8 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-8-2, 20 points in 19 games
I pay close attention to five-on-five totals. It’s the biggest game state, it’s the most important individual game state, and the numbers get a little shady on both special teams even in a 20-game look. At five-on-five over the first 19 games, Edmonton’s goalies have delivered a .906 save percentage. That’s No. 21 overall. You want that to be better, and it is since October 15 (.916, No. 14 overall) and I do believe things are going in a better direction. The coaching staff is running with Calvin Pickard more in this part of the season, makes complete sense based on performance.
The team’s five-on-five goals-60 (2.27, No. 13 overall) trails expected goals-60 (2.85, No. 6 overall) and we can expect a spike at some point in the season. If Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman cash last night on great chances, then we’re having a different conversation and we aren’t talking about the one Calvin Pickard shot he should have stopped (Pickard has been a fine goalie for Edmonton this season, and many want him replaced. Emotional responses can be understandable and yet ill-advised as an actual plan).
After 19 games, I don’t think the ideas presented daily in the comments section are viable as course changes on the current season. Stripping McDavid of his captaincy, trading Stuart Skinner and benching Evan Bouchard might make you feel better, but are not things Kris Knoblauch should do.
THE NUMBERS
The most encouraging signs last night were Ty Emberson’s continued improvement and good results, Calvin Pickard’s five-for-five in HDSC saved, and good moments from three skill wingers (Nuge, Hyman and Jeff Skinner). I think we can agree that scoring slumps by Edmonton wingers have been a thing in the first 19 games, and those slumps should ease lord willing and the creek don’t rise.
Evan Bouchard is in a terrible funk, but the Oilers have to play him heavy minutes. I wouldn’t take him off the power play, but a tweak to the five-on-four that funnels the puck elsewhere, and a new alignment, wouldn’t go amiss.
Leon Draisaitl had a tough game, running counter to his brilliance through the early part of the season. It happens.
CEILING AND FLOOR
The Oilers ceiling and floor are as wide as any SC contender in memory. G7 SCF wasn’t that long ago, and the SC hangover surely has ended. This team’s lowest ebb is expansion level. Incredibly.
I wrote the words above last night on X, and believe this to be true. I think the Oilers are locked in on the roster construction as things stand, and do not believe that any of Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard or Connor McDavid should be traded, benched or stripped of captaincy. These are severe and emotional moves, the kinds of things one would expect from Harold Ballard or a group of fans understandably upset about a 3-0 loss to a lesser team on a Monday night.
The way is clear. For this season.
I wonder about Stan Bowman.
He is not attached to Stuart Skinner, or Evan Bouchard. Come summer, it’s possible Bowman resets the roster with some major moves.
I want to be clear. I believe trading Evan Bouchard would be as dumb as dirt. I believe Stuart Skinner can backstop this team to a Stanley Cup and that he is the best $2.6 million dollar goaltender in captivity.
What I think doesn’t amount to diddly squat. Stan Bowman is the general manager and may not feel this way. What can Stan Bowman get for Evan Bouchard in trade? It would be a famous trade, and not all famous trades are good ones. It’s important to remember Bowman is in no way attached to Evan Bouchard. The rest of this season will be central to how this story turns out.
A busy day on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us from the road and give us the latest on the lineup and the mood of the team. We’ll also chat about possible recalls, Josh Brown’s debut and what comes next. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Trading Bouchard would be dumb. Accept him for what he is with warts and all. Just don’t pay him 11 mil a year
Stan trading Bouchard now would be Chiarelli 2.0. Pick your trade he made it will end that bad.
Disappointing game last night for sure.
I thought the D played fairly well with Nurse out. The PK continues to be better.
The scoring and PP slump is unbelievable. Maybe more shooting drills, set plays in the O zone, or even a consultant to offer a new voice.
Bouchard had one of the all-time great playoff runs for a defenceman last year. He was playing at a Norris level. Now he is not. The bonehead plays are back.
So the pitchforks are out in Edmonton 5 months and 20 games later it’s “trade Bouchard NOW”. A tale as old as time.
This team’s confidence is truly bizarre. It’s not on the coaching staff, not after McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett, Woodcroft, and now Knoblauch are seeing the same problems come up.
Rumours out of Columbus has David Jiricek (right shot D) possibly available for trade. He’s young, huge, draft pedigree… interesting opportunity? Very limited experience but an option for sure (maybe top 4), price unknown.
Loads of talent, not sure he helps short term
Think he has issues because they are not playing him and has asked for a trade? Not sure if Bowman is looking for a 20 year old D man right now.
But he is a big Right handed kid 6.4/208 that can pass and skate it out and is putting up very strong #’s in the A right now 7G 19 P in 29 games and last year 6 G and 38 points in 55.
He has played 53 games in Columbus with 1G and 11 points. He has a very hard shot and plays good D.
They should inquire for sure.
I could see a flip with another disappointing prospect like Drysdale.
Things really have not worked out to this point. The Jeff Skinner signing was puzzling for me. We really didn’t need this type of player, Imo. I was hoping for a bang and crash type who could play 2nd or 3rd line minutes. With the knowledge that Kane was gone for a long while, this to me was a huge oversight.
There’s no shame in not being able to put one by the new Team Canada Goalie. They wouldn’t have scored if they were on a 60 minute PP. Teams are Doubling up Leon and Connor because Hyman-Nuge and company are snakebit. Everything is on the perimeter we need a few Ryan Smith-Craig Simpson Goals put Skinner up with Connor.
The team is really playing peripheral hockey right now. They don’t have anyone crashing the net. Yes Hyman kind of does but he is right out of luck this year. They would be served to get a PF that does crash the net and makes it miserable in front. Perry doesn’t play enough to help and is slower than a slug. The PP is the same. McD skates in circles on the outside and the Pk just shrinks the box to the middle and no passes get through.
Give Pittsburgh a call for starters ( as they seem to be open for business) and try and get big PF 6.4/210 LW Drew O’Connor. It would also add another young body.
As for the D, no clue what to do. They weren’t all that bad last night really. Yes Bouchard is having a terrible stretch of bad mistakes and Nurse out really hurts, but the team D didn’t cost the game last night. The Offense and pp did nothing. This team should be able to win every game that they only give up 2 goals ( not including that empty netter) , so go get a kid like O’Connor. ( Or someone similar).
Last night was the 1st time I have ever witnessed McD that pissed off and discouraged during a game. That is not good.
The team lost and traded away a lot of speed this past summer. They haven’t replaced that.
Hopefully Arvidson and Nurse get back ASAP. Kane as well in the New Year 100% healthy.
As for the Goalies , Pickard needed to stop the 2nd last night and Skinner is inconsistent as well.
I really do not see any goalie fix at this point. Who is available that is really any better? Blackwood?
Be nice to see a few moves , but not sure we do.
Hyman needs to play more like Gallagher. He gets around the net but I don’t see him as that much of a disruption, at least this season. Or that good in tight individually
I was heartened to read that the Oilers are interested in Pettersson. Gives me some hope in Stanny Bow
I think it’s a good idea to not paint everyone with the same brush. How can there be the civil discussion if when folks put up their opinion and it isn’t popular the responses are actually personal criticism and often have no counterpoints?
I am usually not responding emotionally when I comment. I mentioned Connor and captaincy yesterday. I did not say ‘strip him of his captaincy’, nor do I think that it should happen now. Not my words
I said that because of what he’s like. He isn’t an even keeled person, he does a great job of presenting a calm demeanor to the media. But that isn’t his nature, his Mom has told some stories about him so there is some perspective for us, and that is what makes him the player he is – he’s super charged and fierce, driven to an uncommon level
My ‘opinion’ is that an ideal leader knows how to get the group together and following the lead. Being temperamental at times because of intensity, being unable to keep your cool, unsettles people. It’s not something that they can follow. It isn’t inspiring
Maybe there wasn’t a better choice. I am not saying he’s bad. MacKinnon is similar, can be amped up to the point that it might not be helpful for the group. Landeskog is still their captain, even not playing
I wanted to respond as I don’t like how this comment was being framed. But is not something to keep pursuing, it’s an opinion that is not a criticism or attack on the player. Connor is the only player I wouldn’t trade, he’s not replaceable. Connor is my favourite current player, and right up there with Wayne and Mark
Respectfully, you have no idea what Connor is like as a person or a leader. Thinking that you do based on a few interviews is absurd.
The Amazon documentary showed his leadership style pretty clearly.
To an extent. It was a tv show produced for entertainment. What was not shown or what was cut from the doc?
This is exactly why I put up the response today. Maybe you can’t get a feel for things with the mountains of stuff for us to read and watch, but that’s your business. This type of comment is a straw man, and we see a lot of it here when people don’t like something, and also don’t really have a substantive rebuttal. Just the emotional response and an insult, which isn’t respectful by the way
What you are saying is that despite a decade of information and behind the scenes documentaries etc, it’s not valid to form an opinion based on that. That sure narrows the field down about what someone can form an opinion about, doesn’t it? I don’t agree with that line of thinking. You and others don’t have to agree with what I said
See Harpers Hair’s comment
I did not insult you.
I simply said that it is not possible to get a sense for anyone as a person or a leader based on tv interviews or shows.
It is produced entertainment.
I think it’s speculative to form such strong opinions about a person based on such little information. YMMV.
How is my comment a straw man? Your argument was based on the premise that McD is temperamental. That premise is supported by weak evidence IMO.
In your original post you admit that there is evidence that McD is even keeled. Then disregard that evidence because of a few other clips/interviews. It is very possible McD is calm and the explosions we saw are the exception. An equally plausible explanation.
Hemsky has bad body language!
Yes, exactly.
Watching Holloway, Broberg and McLeod (and even Foegele) pop on their new teams while the Oilers dabble in mediocrity is also a kick in the nuts. It is making me feel emotions. Like extreme annoyance.
They are all in the new team giver phase. Let’s see how it pans out for the forwards. McLeod has SH% 33. DH has 1G 3A and is 5th in F TOI with SH% 3.03. Foegele has 10 pts and SH% 17.65
Bro it’s hard to say. He’s 4th in 5v5 TOI. He’s got 7 pts in 12 GP but is sporting SH% 20. I think the forwards will regress to what they were on the Oilers
For sure. They are also all getting opportunities they would never get on the Oilers.
Good work Jackson!
I actually think Emberson and Stecher have been improvements over Vinny and Ceci. Emberson started slow but he has been steady. The Oilers forwards need to stop playing this perimeter game that pumps up their fancy stats. This is a problem that goes back years. There is a reason the Oilers get “Goalied” every game. They look for the perfect goal everytime especially on the powerplay. They need more rebound goals. The powerplay is stationary and predictable. They almost need a set play where two players drive to the net after a shot.
They don’t get goalied every game. They were top 5 in goals for each of the previous two seasons.
I think they play at a higher tempo and move the puck better. We will see, hopefully they keep getting better
I think the same can be said of some of the top players. I mean, Drai has been so very good recently, top player in the world good, but last night he was awful to my eye including getting out-battled physically be Cole Caufield TWICE.
McDavid was supernova in the first 10 minutes and damn close to a net negative the rest of the game, to my eye.
There are people out there who think the Oilers should strip McDavid of his captaincy?? Talk about living in completely different realities.
Is this team “is what it is” after this 20 game sample size?
Its a quarter of the season and that’s real and that’s substantial.
There has to be a reasonable expectation that so many individual can, and will be, better in the last 3/4 of the season: Nuge, Henrique, Arvidsson, McDavid, J. Skinner, S. Skinner, Bouchard.
All of those players are under-performing established norms. Yup, some of them are older and age-related regression is a real think but, at the same time, the drop of from 6 months ago from some of them is spectacular and can’t be just a cliff.
Both special teams under-performing massively on the season – good signs on the PK recently.
I feel like the head coach is under-performing in deployment and with finding a way to get individuals and the team playing the game a certain way and understanding game management.
At the same time, as UGLY as its been on so many levels, this team is 4 points out of 1st in the division (giving up one game) – that’s crazy.
Prospectich!
The Knights of London get the spotlight tonight.
Winners of 11 in a row, London will solidify, if not improve, their #2 rank in the country. O’Reilly & Nicholl &c will try to make it an even dozen in a row when the puck drops at 5 p.m. Vimy time.
While we may be better than last year’s “20 game team”, I do not feel we are better than last year’s “80 game team”. And that is a problem.
The team has taken a step back in terms of pace and execution. That is a concern.