Minnesota hockey fans have been gifted two NHL teams in my lifetime, but zero Stanley Cup victories. That will end soon, as the team is building a monster from the clay of NCAA and smart drafting worldwide. The North Stars were always fascinating to me, even as they were not quite the Philadelphia Flyers or St. Louis Blues between 1968 and 1975. The North Stars won 20 playoff games in those years, training the Flyers (32) and Blues (31) by some margin.
The fascinating thing about the North Stars? GM Wren Blair made mountains of trades with Sam Pollock of the Montreal Canadiens, mortgaging the future again and again. What made Blair fascinating? He damned near beat the Habs playing Pollock’s game. What a ride.
The Athletic story today is about regression, erosion and the edition of the Oilers in what I’m calling the Holland coda. This group can win Stanley, but they’re going to need everything some of these veterans have in them. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 10-8-2, 22 points in 20 games
I have tonight as a win for Edmonton, but the Wild roll into town with an 8-1-2 road record and a 7-2-1 success rate in the last 10 games. The Oilers are two points out of first place, and a strong finish to November should put this team in a good position to shout to the top. There’s no earthly reason the Oilers should fail here, if the suppression numbers match the GA and the shooting percentage climb back to do-re-mi.
CONSIDER THIS
Since mid-October, Stuart Skinner has a five-on-five save percentage of .913, Calvin Pickard .925 as the backup. Skinner’s total ranks No. 16 among the 32 most active goaltenders so far this season. That’s a fair assessment of his ability to stop pucks, in my opinion. Skinner is a solid starter, and the Oilers almost won Stanley with him as their No. 1 last spring.
It is my belief the organization should run with him until the cap hit becomes too dear. Stan Bowman may not feel that way. We talked yesterday about a big summer that might include exits for Skinner and franchise puck mover Evan Bouchard.
There’s a more palatable plan for Bowman, but it involves great scouting, luck and patience. If Bowman can identify a goalie who could come in and play behind Skinner for one season (while Skinner is still inexpensive), he could find his answer.
Now, I don’t know the name of that goalie. Peter Chiarelli bet on Mikko Koskinen, Ken Holland bet on Mike Smith, perhaps Stan Bowman will bet on Juuse Saros. Maybe there’s a Euro goaltender with size and a better glove than Koskinen out among the stars of European hockey.
Maybe it’s an AHL goaltender. The San Jose Sharks made a bet on Yaroslav Askarov and his .939 AHL save percentage this season suggests he is about to deliver for the left coast club. Meanwhile, Oilers fans remain convinced that Jesper Wallstedt, he of the AHL .864 save percentage, was the greatest opportunity missed by Holland at the 2021 entry draft. Goalies are important, but they’re also damned difficult to evaluate. If Bowman can find a goalie without giving up much in assets or cap room? Music! My preference is Skinner in net when Edmonton wins Stanley No. 6, and he’ll get that opportunity in the spring. I’m less certain about his presence as the starter spring 2026.
ROSTER MOVES
Josh Brown flew back to Bakersfield yesterday, suspect the team will run 12-6-2 tonight. I’m looking forward to seeing Kasperi Kapanen in the days to come (possibly tonight). I would slot him on the second line and fade Corey Perry, but that’s a feature role and the coaching staff may want to slide him in on the fourth line. Based on recent events, we can expect Mattias Janmark to play lots and well, and Jeff Skinner to get plenty of ass sitting when the skill centers are deployed. As frustrated as you may be with Kris Knoblauch, and as nuts as the lack of goals are, those suppression totals are a wonder. This same combination (good underlying numbers, poor scoring results) got Dallas Eakins fired back in the day, but I think Knoblauch and his staff have more quality on the roster than Eakins enjoyed on the day he was let go. Should be a good game tonight, no victory guarantee but these are fun teams. Once again, don’t let Jacques Lemaire in the building and Minnesota hockey clubs are fun.
We’re live noon to 2pm today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk will join us to preview the game, we’ll talk Blue Jays, NFL Thursday nighter and Declanations will be all about NCAA football. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
This is a team that can’t box out the front of its own net. This is the biggest contributing factor to our loses. Rebounds and screens.
I don’t want to rag on Bouchard but those two first Minny goals especially — the dman has a responsibility to clear. It’s just not happening consistently at all. Floaters and rebounds.
You mean it’s not all goalie?
Gregor tweets the quote:
“His game isn’t where it was last year. When I was here I thought he was one of the top goalies in the league. If he had a bad game, he’d bounce back the next night….
“We need to be more predictable in front of him so he knows where the shots are coming from. Tonight was not a predictable night for a goalie,” Knoblauch on Skinner
This team reminds me of the ’06 Oilers. They need to find a Roloson.
That Oilers team played elite team defense. This one, not so much.
Plenty of blame to go around on this one. Minnesota was the better team tonight by far. Why is this Oiler team so inconsistent? Coach needs to figure this out
No Hyman, Arvidsson or Nurse.
How many goals have those 3 scored combined so far this year?
They are very, very consistent. Very predictable.
At this point, Oilers are confirming their strengths and weaknesses. They are on display over and over, win or loss.
808: Great drum machine, lousy save percentage
Bouchard needs to cut the ‘Bouch bomb’ out his repetoir. The big windup gives the opposition time to block it. And quite frankly he doesn’t shoot the puck hard enough to deter opposition players from getting in front of his shot the way guys like Webber, Chara or Souray used to.
Take the pass and direct the puck on net quickly. Don’t let the D set up to block the shot. Keep it low and hope for a rebound or tip in front.
Notice Skinner, who did pick up that rebound goal, chose to go behind the net for that shot.
It was Perry who went netfront.
I think Bouchard can easily get the puck through, but his teammates are generally hanging back along the boards.
BOOM! That’ll be the goal that gets Skinner going!
Goal scorers often score in bunches and I think Jeff Skinner is a streaky goal scorer (I think) – perhaps that will get him going.
I hope so because watching him the past 10 games or so has been nails on a chalkboard.
J Skinner has a role he’s good at. Use him there and he’ll succeed. He’s the shooter.
you don’t bring him in to fetch pucks for McDavid. He is used to others fetching the puck while he looks for clean ice to shoot.
really simple.
You have just articulated why he was a bad acquisition. Who do you want shooting the puck. Skinner or McDavid or Draisaitl.
McDavid doesn’t want to shoot.
Seems like a natural fit.
Why does Hopkins just keep getting sent out there???
He’s got absolutely nothing right now.
He’s smart and a utility knife
With regards to Stu Skinner, have people honestly looked at how bad his defence is in front of him? Where do you possibly think you’re going with Stecher, Brown, Emberson etc…
The Oilers are NOT giving up alot of shot, scoring chance, high danger scoring changes – per the numbers.
I don’t think there is a platfrom out there that doesn’t have the goals against materially higher than the expected goals against.
So if the goaltenders woiuld have been swapped tonight, do the Oilers win??
Nope, probably not.
Of course, my post was about the 20+ game season, not one game.
Is the defence the issue?
Excellent intel
The Oilers are 20th in the league in GF/GP.
They are 17th in the league in points percentage by a hair.
This is not a coincidence.
While they have 2 of the top 20 scorers in the league, the rest of the lineup is old, slow and unproductive with the exception of Evan Bouchard who is not old or very slow but is relatively unproductive currently ranking 25th among defensemen in P/GP.
That their starting goaltender currently ranks 58th in save percentage among active goaltenders completes the tale of woe.
The Oilers give up egregiously bad high danger area goals. They don’t need many if they score on the 1st chance. They don’t need 2nd and 3rd chances in quick succession.
I don’t believe this to be the case at all. Not from my eye test.
Do the Oilers give up some 5-bell chances? Absolutely. All teams do and I don’t see the Oilers giving these up more than the teams they play against.
This is your narrative but the numbers do not back it up nor does the, at least my, eye test.
You don’t watch the games?
J Skinner with another -2 tonight. If you’re him and his agent you were probably thinking, sign a one year deal, play with one of the glimmer twins, pad some stats, and play some playoff games. Then hopefully sign a multi year deal with someone before retiring. Probably didn’t contemplate what would happen to your career if you finished with 10g and dash 20 playing half the year on the fourth line on what was supposed to be a contender. Next contract is likely one year just over league min on a rebuilder.
Guess he heard that haha
He’s a one-dimensional, injury prone, finished player.
Coming in to this season he was 13th in the NHL in goals at 5 on 5 over the last 3 years – more goals than Drai, Kaprizov, Panarin, Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Nylander, Guentzel, Keller, Crosby, Hintz, Marchessault, etc.
Probably not finished.
Would you say he is anywhere near the level of the players you mentioned above? If he was such a steal, how come there wasn’t an enire league waiting to sign him?
I was responding to a point that he’s finished by providing facts on his goal scoring level over the last few years – don’t think he’s finished.
He has looked slow, and been placed in the bottom 6 for the majority of the season so far. Could it be that he has been misused?
Meaningless goals. Buffalo bought him out to get him out of the room. That pretty much says it all.
I’ve never heard that they wanted to “get him out of the room”.
Is this another one of those things you’ve decided is true?
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/why-was-jeff-skinner-bought-ou-1F12_ZXTSSOP05PHPvKGzg
“meaningless goals” lol
He certainly has a lot of resolve in the o zone when there’s an opening and obviously poses a good shot. I also understand he’s played on some struggling teams but still, over the past 5 years, he’s minus 41 at 5×5 despite his scoring. He unfortunately gives it all back plus some. How does his plus/minus rank against Drai, Kap, Pan, Tkachuk, Nylander, Guentzel, Keller, Crosby, Hintz, and March?
His numbers over the last 3 years do not have him as a negative goal share at 5 on 5 in any of the years. On a non-playoff team. Has he been giving it all back?
That was not what Oiler fans said this summer
Oiler fans embraced the retirement home pushed by JJ this summer. Let’s hope they are simply pacing themselves for the real season.
Thats what is shaping up but the story is yet to be fully done
That’s right, lets have the top players play 4 of the last 5 minutes to drain them a bit more before Saturday’s game!
I think every coach that coaches this team caves into the core wishes to some degree…even if it’s obvious that in many situations it does not make any sense.
Unrelated to the current state of the Oilers’ defense, but has anyone checked on Klefbom? How’s his shoulder doing? Any chance he’s been secretly training for a career reviving comeback?
The Oilers were completely outclassed, out hustled, out battled, out goalied, out-skated, outhit, outcoached, and outsmarted in their own building. This one never was close. If not for two very flukey goals, this is a 5-0 game. I can see some fans running around with their hair on fire tomorrow.
Completely agree.
As coach I would at this point just play only the ones playing proper hockey
There are some going to the net and setting screens, playing basic hockey and they have been more effective even not scoring. But they get far fewer minutes to do that
The amount of lost puck battles, low chance passes and low chance plays from the top line, and Bouch , not using the other 2 or 3 guys pretty much is the story. So the coaches play them more
Wrong message as I see it
It’s time for the classic closed door players only meeting. This team is not even close to firing on all cylinders.
Cannot believe how quiet and ineffective Nuge is as a center. Yet, they insiste with Connor and Leon together.
I would not be patient if I was the Oilers GM. It would get ugly. I would be fired for the moves I make. But then I’d be getting paid big money to do nothing after while I enjoy the rest of my life….
Heh heh
Kapanen draws two power plays and is rewarded with a trip to line 4.
What is this team doing?!?
You mean what is Coch K doing.
I WILL partially chaulk this up to the Oilers being quite tired (lots of travel and lots of games recently), really banged up (three top 6 forwards if you include Kane and a top 4D) and sick (generally its not only one player on a team that is sick – Demott).
At the same time – highly demoralizing and terrible game.
Assuming the Oil makes little noise in the playoffs, why would Connor resign?
Why would one assume that?
Just a hypothetical.
No way the first unit should start but they will.
No rebound control there
The D and goalie are absolutely awful tonight- and the forwards don’t have the urgency to make up for it.
These guys really don’t get how to play every night. So many nights off.
I think this team just gets tired of working their asses off only to lose momentum from shitty goalering. It just deflates them. They’re either trying to come back while outplaying the other team consistently or leads vanishing.
Valid point.
Stu undoes a lot of good work.
It’s demoralizing.
Can’t get a save.
PP2 misses McLeod’s speed for the entries.
PP creates negative momentum – sweet!
shinguard assassin is at it again
Knoblauch rotating wingers with 97&29. He seems as lost as we are
Doesn’t have much to choose from.
He’s not liked what he’s seen w/Nuge & Skinner so he’s shuffling the deck.
The rare “split up McDavid and Drai” down and needing a couple of goals….
Strange move after their strong shift to open the period.
Effort has really picked up. A goal or pp will come if we can keep it up! Attack, attack, attack!!!
First shift of the 3rd is the most energetic of the game – gives me a tiny bit of hope that they force the masses to turn the game off prior to the end.
Stu is getting outplayed by someone my age.
I spoke in the summer- they did not add what they needed.
it’s irrelevant now. Team is what it is. High skill, less grunt. Awesome at some things, poor at others.
But Oilers play has been quite consistent. The actual results completely inconsistent. Play this way, allow chances, the game outcome is so subject to luck.
Certainly Skinner hasn’t been good. But it’s always so dam confusing because this team cannot control the front of their net. Regardless of coaches, regardless how f new dmen coming in, they cannot clear the net or take their man.
im not seeing them as bad as many. They play the same game, get lucky, everybody happy.
McLeod+Ceci+Holloway >>>> J.Skinner +Henrique+Stecher
JJ should have found a replacement before playing GM for a summer.
That’s not quite the gains and losses. I’m not sure anyone would have said JJ was making bad moves based on the evidence, and we don’t know if Broberg would have ever signed with Edm or was waiting for an offer sheet. Losing Broberg was clearly the move that needed to be closed off. Savoie’s story is not told yet, either, and hopefully has a higher ceiling than McLeod
Broberg was a goner due to the Kulak signing and being blocked from playing. Mistake was compounded by signing aging vets and having to dump Ceci with no proper replacement. It’ll take 5yrs to find another McLeod at $2M.
They have Brown. Fast skater who throws snow whenever his hit radar goes off.
Was hoping Skinner’s solid game against Ottawa would be the start of something. Yes there has been defensive breakdowns in front of him, but Stu isn’t helping
I was a big fan of the Skinner, Henrique and Arvi signings. Egg on my face.
I thought the Arvidsson swap for Foegele was a good bet. As FA day progressed and BOTH Skinner and Henrique were signed it was inevitable that negative repercussions were going to ensue. Those repercussions were a McLeod trade for hope, not one but two offer sheets, and a salary dump in Ceci.
The 3 players you mentioned are all dead batteries. They have no offence lef to give and defensively are liabilities….
Kaprizov with the miracle Russian cure
Genuinely floridapantheresque, to coin a term.
A tip o’ the hat.
I can’t wait for all of the stu defenders tomorrow.
Make sure you don’t get knocked out by one of his rebounds
For a site that greatly values analytics it’s amazing how Skinners are ignored.
Skinner has completely lost it. Picard should get the net and find another back up. Obviously less than ideal.
Even with his poor start to the season (continuing tonight!), Skinner was still tied for #13 in SV% of the 32 most used goalies since the start of the 22-23 season.
Stu defenders (at least this one) are betting on regression to the larger sample size. Skinner is definitely having a tough start to the season though.
https://www.nhl.com/stats
where?? I see #30
and he’s been declining since that first season
https://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20222023&seasonTo=20242025&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,82&sort=savePct&page=0&pageSize=50
Here. 13th of 33 actually.
Tied with Bobrovsky.
Might well have dropped a point or two tonight,
At this point start Pic until Stu can win the net back. I have said I don’t think that they trust Pic because they haven’t done It
Goalie is all about here and now
Stu isn’t doing well enough regardless of 20 game small sample data. If Bowman doesn’t trust Pick make a deal
I was watching the game in my bedroom and caught a Stu rebound way up here in YK.
Juicy!
This team is dogshit tonight.
I pray to god we never play Minny in the playoffs.
Playoffs?????????
I mean the pacific is pretty bad.
what the heck are you talking about??
Oilers have got all the breaks tonight and are down 4-2 in a game they should be down 5-0.
RNH — SHOOT!!!
Haha Skinner. 4 goals 18 shots. Blame whoever you want. We will never win with this goaltending
I still believe Skinner will go on a good run and I would keep him but Lowetide trying to indicate he hasn’t been that bad this year is like trying to polish a turd and say it’s gold. I would swap our backup for Blackwood and hope for the best. I wouldn’t blow the wad on Sorros.
Kaprizov and Boldy out and McDavid and Drai with horrid shift to not take advantage, give away any momentum then Henrique with a terrible play at the offensive blue and a simple 3 on 3 ends up in the net.
This team sucks tonight.
From the end to the top of the lineup.
They are looking for highlight reel goals against a shaky goalie and passing up lots of clean looks for back passes to no one
Oilers have stretches of dominant play. Breakout very good, puck possession good.
mistakes – yup
results – poor
Stttttuuuuuuuuu
Stuuuuuuuu
Sttttuuuuuuu
Can we please get a goalie
call up Olivia Rodrigo
That’s game. Minny has always been a thorn in the Oilers sides
Wow! Sorry got nothing else to add…..
Just dismal lol. Henrique is glacially slow.
Not sure how they don’t see the instigator there. I mean it happened twice.
Clean hit
And what a miraculous recovery by Kaprizov
We currently appear to be a very mediocre team with a couple of super stars and not much else. Hard to see that this team is capable of going on long winning streaks and moving up the standing. Too many vets stuck in the mud, shaky defending, no physicality, and below average net minding. I would be more than happy to eat crow and see them rebound but sure not looking good.
I’m not willing to say that, when years of history would say RNH, Hyman have more to give, and hopefully same for Arvidsson, Kane, Henrique, Skinner. The D was looking better before Nurse’s injury
Honestly I really hope you are right. Have been a fan since first Oilers WHA team and nothing would make me happier than a turn around. Just having trouble seeing it right now.
It shouldn’t be like this. But hopefully they hang around enough to give the team time to get going and then peak late again
Both goalies suck.
Skinner’s rebounds are going everywhere, and every shot at the net is an adventure
He needs to be pulled and not played again for a month
So you are staying there is still a chance??????