Minnesota hockey fans have been gifted two NHL teams in my lifetime, but zero Stanley Cup victories. That will end soon, as the team is building a monster from the clay of NCAA and smart drafting worldwide. The North Stars were always fascinating to me, even as they were not quite the Philadelphia Flyers or St. Louis Blues between 1968 and 1975. The North Stars won 20 playoff games in those years, training the Flyers (32) and Blues (31) by some margin.
The fascinating thing about the North Stars? GM Wren Blair made mountains of trades with Sam Pollock of the Montreal Canadiens, mortgaging the future again and again. What made Blair fascinating? He damned near beat the Habs playing Pollock’s game. What a ride.
The Athletic story today is about regression, erosion and the edition of the Oilers in what I’m calling the Holland coda. This group can win Stanley, but they’re going to need everything some of these veterans have in them. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 10-8-2, 22 points in 20 games
I have tonight as a win for Edmonton, but the Wild roll into town with an 8-1-2 road record and a 7-2-1 success rate in the last 10 games. The Oilers are two points out of first place, and a strong finish to November should put this team in a good position to shout to the top. There’s no earthly reason the Oilers should fail here, if the suppression numbers match the GA and the shooting percentage climb back to do-re-mi.
CONSIDER THIS
Since mid-October, Stuart Skinner has a five-on-five save percentage of .913, Calvin Pickard .925 as the backup. Skinner’s total ranks No. 16 among the 32 most active goaltenders so far this season. That’s a fair assessment of his ability to stop pucks, in my opinion. Skinner is a solid starter, and the Oilers almost won Stanley with him as their No. 1 last spring.
It is my belief the organization should run with him until the cap hit becomes too dear. Stan Bowman may not feel that way. We talked yesterday about a big summer that might include exits for Skinner and franchise puck mover Evan Bouchard.
There’s a more palatable plan for Bowman, but it involves great scouting, luck and patience. If Bowman can identify a goalie who could come in and play behind Skinner for one season (while Skinner is still inexpensive), he could find his answer.
Now, I don’t know the name of that goalie. Peter Chiarelli bet on Mikko Koskinen, Ken Holland bet on Mike Smith, perhaps Stan Bowman will bet on Juuse Saros. Maybe there’s a Euro goaltender with size and a better glove than Koskinen out among the stars of European hockey.
Maybe it’s an AHL goaltender. The San Jose Sharks made a bet on Yaroslav Askarov and his .939 AHL save percentage this season suggests he is about to deliver for the left coast club. Meanwhile, Oilers fans remain convinced that Jesper Wallstedt, he of the AHL .864 save percentage, was the greatest opportunity missed by Holland at the 2021 entry draft. Goalies are important, but they’re also damned difficult to evaluate. If Bowman can find a goalie without giving up much in assets or cap room? Music! My preference is Skinner in net when Edmonton wins Stanley No. 6, and he’ll get that opportunity in the spring. I’m less certain about his presence as the starter spring 2026.
ROSTER MOVES
Josh Brown flew back to Bakersfield yesterday, suspect the team will run 12-6-2 tonight. I’m looking forward to seeing Kasperi Kapanen in the days to come (possibly tonight). I would slot him on the second line and fade Corey Perry, but that’s a feature role and the coaching staff may want to slide him in on the fourth line. Based on recent events, we can expect Mattias Janmark to play lots and well, and Jeff Skinner to get plenty of ass sitting when the skill centers are deployed. As frustrated as you may be with Kris Knoblauch, and as nuts as the lack of goals are, those suppression totals are a wonder. This same combination (good underlying numbers, poor scoring results) got Dallas Eakins fired back in the day, but I think Knoblauch and his staff have more quality on the roster than Eakins enjoyed on the day he was let go. Should be a good game tonight, no victory guarantee but these are fun teams. Once again, don’t let Jacques Lemaire in the building and Minnesota hockey clubs are fun.
We’re live noon to 2pm today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk will join us to preview the game, we’ll talk Blue Jays, NFL Thursday nighter and Declanations will be all about NCAA football. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Some good injury updates from Bako:
Josh Brown recalled.
Seems the org is full on day to day cap structuring – getting Brown off the cap for a day to get out of LTIR and accrue and now bring him back to ensure they aren’t effed with a last second injury, illness, personal matter……
They were already at 23 with this morning’s 12/6/2 + Arvidsson, Hyman, Nurse.
Arvidsson to (short term) IR on a retroactive basis?
I would presume – he would be eligible to come off any time.
Nurse in full equipment speaking to the media today is great to see.
“This same combination (good underlying numbers, poor scoring results) got Dallas Eakins fired back in the day”.
Not sure when Dallas Eakins’ Oilers ever had good shot metrics. Might have talked about it, but it didn’t seem to happen. During his 113 game tenure, the Oilers were near the bottom of the league in every shot metric leading to being 29 out of 31 teams in xGF%. Both the process and the results were awful.
Knoblauch has done nothing as a coach that would warrant any comparison to Eakins.
Koach K is wondering why LT hates him
Coach says Hyman is out 4-7 days and Arvy still out for a bit (will not be back for Saturday either).
With Arvy, it’s taking longer than they first figured – if it was playoffs he’d be playing.
With Nurse, he may play Saturday but, if not, fully expected the following game. He was asked about the nature of the injury and, he didn’t say head or concussion, but he did talk about the protocols and steps needed to be passed to be cleared – almost assuredly a concussion (as opposed to neck or back or whiplash, etc.).
What’s the deal with Wallstedt? Is he playing on a terrible team? Just playing poorly?
youth. circumstance. voodoo.
Shhhh…. Don’t tell Reja. Wallstedt is perfect and infallible and can do no wrong. 😝
Do you think a just turned 22 year-old Jesper with all his pedigree is done? I’ll fill you in on a little secret but let’s keep it between us. Our own starter is batting.881 a 1/4 of the way through the season leaking valuable points especially late in games.
No, I don’t. ..Is that what you think I think based on my comment?
I would have taken him (or Lysell who is also not off to a strong season) when he came to the Oilers pick instead of trading down. Side note, like most people I would have missed Wyatt Johnston sitting right there for the taking.
I’m not poking fun at you for liking Wallstedt or for lamenting the Oilers decision to pass on him by trading down. I agree with you that he was the right choice. I’m poking fun at you for the frequency that you remind us of your opinions on the matter.
I didn’t bring up Jesper first today but we had a real chance to build a dynasty around Connor&Leon instead we have zero picks under we don’t have time for youth Holland. When you have nothing in the pipeline and you pass up a potential fall in your lap franchise goaltender you deserve to be fired. Jesper in my opinion was the right pick and Billy jumped on it whether he pans out or not. Look at down south that goaltender is covering up a lot of mistakes.
I wonder… would the Oilers have taken Sebastian Cossa in that spot had he been available?
.937 SV% and 1.89 GAA in 11 games this season.
And still toiling in the AHL.
Philp, Savoie and Wright all make more sense to call up than Caggiula.
Classic old-time coach approach though. Not to mention Bowman had him in Chicago. Hate that choice. Good news is it doesn’t matter much – but still. The other 3 can shoot the puck and might have futures here.
Philp, Savoie & Wright are all right shots. Kapanen is RW & Caggiula is LW, and both have plenty of NHL experience. Not sure what could make more sense.
Savoie definitely does not make sense. He’s still figuring out the pro game and has been highly inconsistent so far. Those that watch will likely agree that he’s coming but definitely needs to be in the AHL.
A case can be made for Philp but he’s also had consistency issues in Bako this season. Given this call up is for one game (two max), no need to yo-yo this player – let him develop so that when he’s next called up, it’s forever.
Have to agree w this Savoie comment. This ain’t Sam Gagner’s Oilers.
Bill Guerin was a favourite as a player. Man could they use a big fast tough mean winger with a killer shot about now
As a GM I’m surprised he doesn’t get more buzz. He has a very good team while carrying 17.747M in dead cap. It is amazing. They have only 3 guys under water in GF% that have played more than 8 games
His team plays like past Oiler teams did. If Bowman could build a group like that with Connor and Leon leading the way they would be leviathan
Kane is a big fast mean winger with a killer shot (when healthy)
He’ll be back long enough before the trade deadline to evaluate if he can be that guy.
True!
Loved Billy such a warrior along with Weight-Smith-Grier etc were a lunch pail team that played for each other. I do wish the group that bleed Oiler blood would of taken over in management instead some outsiders who’s number reason for coming here is the all mighty dollar.
We…tried that.
LT I like your optimism about a win tonight but personally I wouldn’t bet any money on it. Wild are a very good team on a roll. Oilers have too many players firing blanks and are now a bit banged up. They have not fared well against the better teams so far this year. Obviously you can never count out a team with 97 + 29!
Agreed. Especially the line blending that will have to occur. I am hoping McDavid and Draisaitl see 97 on the other side and get up for that challenge
I’ve got Gustavsson in my pool. I’ll put him in tonight to ensure an Oilers victory 😉
I’m also looking forward to watching Kapanen. I have no idea what to expect but I’m anticipating being under-whelmed and hope I am pleasantly surprised.
If both Hyman and Arvidsson are out, coach may be “forced” to give Skinner more minutes up top.
Leon-McDavid-Podkolzin
Skinner-Nuge-Kapanen
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Caggiula-Ryan-Perry
Janmark or Caggiula could be moved up to the second line or Perry for Kapanen.
Might see the blender tonight.
I think that Skinner is this team’s starting goaltender for the foreseeable future. I know there are some opinions out there that he “is just a back-up” or “isn’t an NHL goalie” but, for me, he is a full on middle of the pack 50-55 game 1A.
There are not that many goalies that play that many games and are just solid night after night after night with only the rare bad game. Look at former Vezina winner Ulmark and his numbers and his “bad-Skinner-like Performance” on Tuesday.
In any event, what I am fairly certain of is that $2.6MM for this year and next year is a massive value deal that this goalie will out perform. I don’t know what that number looking like in 2026/27 but, if the Oilers don’t win Stanley before then, Skinner may no longer be here.
As far as this season, unless Skinner collapses I don’t think a goalie is even on the radar for the Oilers. Pierre LeBrun stated that expressly in his John Gibson piece. Listed Edmonton as a place Gibson would waive for but the Oilers are not looking at goalies, at all.
When you listen to McDavid talk about Bouchard, I thunk he’ll throw Bowman and Jackson off of a bridge if they try to trade him.
McD is no dummy. He played for a few seasons with D that handle the puck like a grenade.
Over the past three playoffs, the Oilers are 52-41 GF/GA with Bouchard on the ice and 71-80 with Bouchard off.
He was easily the best defender in last years western conference playoffs. Completely outclassed everyone in Vancouver and Dallas as far as rear guards are concerned.
His gaffes lately have been crazy!! Then… he gets that first goal against Ottawa..lol..
I think some of us should just not watch the first 35 games the way history has been with this group! lol
I wish we would of went with Billy Guerin he’s building a team from the studs up after two surprising but needed buyouts. Laugh all you want about Wallstedt but he has more of a chance of being a impact player then that Q guy we picked. Ask yourself this what is Jesper worth right now in a trade even in his struggles.
Minnesota is a fascinating study.
With the Parise/Suter buyouts ($13 million) coming off the cap next season combined with the expected large jump in the cap, they will be swimming in cap space in the offseason.
Kaprizov under contract for another season…#1 RD Brock Faber extended for another 8 seasons @ $8.5 million, #1LD Zeev Buium killing it in Denver and the potential of Wallstedt, it seems they need to add an additional high end centre to compliment Marco Rossi and Eriksson-Ek.
Some nice pieces playing in the NCAA too.
Guerin has them in a very good place.
all true. Does this mean you’re trading in your Byfield jersey for a Boldy one?
Caggiula called up which was expected once Brown was sent down.
I presume he’ll play with Ryan and Perry and a 4th line and also presume both Hyman and Arvidsson are out so Kapanen will get top 6.
I hope McDavid and Drai are split but I don’t think any coach has ever done that after they’ve been together in a win.
If Hyman is indeed out, I see the coach thinking about loading up and telling the stars to win the game.
I’m sure Caggiula would rather play with Philp and Kapanen. Maybe someday, but not tonight with Hyman possibly out and Arvidsson. A real patch work line up tonight against a tough opponent.
This team is in an alright spot. Those 5v5 save percentages for the last month are enough to win more games than not. The team shooting percentage will come up. That’s just bad luck.
Great teams lay stinkers more often than people remember.
The problem with trading Stuart Skinner is he would be the goalie you are looking to trade for. Pretty cheap, relatively young but has some real playoff experience.
If the Oilers are trading Skinner then the best fit on the trade market would be Skinner.
Not when contract time comes. That’s the key to running your roster this way. You need the best $2.6 million goalie in captivity.
Very true. I think Skinner is the best 2.6M goalie out there.
Hopefully Skinner is looking for 10M by the time of his next contract!
As with most former Oilers, I am following the career of Anthony Stolarz with interest. He signed with Toronto at 2x $2.5 on Jul 01 after an outstanding season as a backup in FLA (16-7-2, 2.03, .925, Stanley Cup).
So far, so good. 7-3-2: 2.18, .927 & a head to head win over Skinner last week in which he was the better goalie.
i like Skinner, a good goalie with a good contract on a good team, but he’s not quite a unicorn.
PS: I still don’t understand why the Oilers didn’t even look at Stolarz after Keith Gretzky traded Cam Talbot for him (& for cap reasons) in the failed 2018-19 season. After his arrival he got 1 start in 25 games & that only because Koskinen was sick.A Saturday nighter vs Toronto as fate had it,
IMO it’s the softies that Skinner let’s in at inopportune times. They’re backbreakers. He looks overwhelmed at times, it doesn’t inspire confidence. It’s been mentioned many times but you need your goaltender to steal a game here and there.
It’s has been a bad run of those goals but I wouldn’t put too much weight in them. It’s never really been his MO. Skinner got us to game 7 of the Stanely Cup by being solid and making most of the stops he should. His glove isn’t great but he doesn’t give nearly as many stinkers as Koskinen or even Smith let in. He’s a good positional goalie, he doesn’t often make (or need to) the big acrobatic save.
Positional goalies are usually big and not so acrobatic. As long as the puck hits them, they’re ok. Too bad Skinner isn’t big and acrobatic.
How is Skinner supposed to ‘steal’ a game?
The Oilers have only been outshot twice on the season, and neither time by much.
They haven’t allowed more than 35 shots (against) in a game.
There aren’t really any games that would have been considered ‘steals’ no matter how well he played.
I agree here, the oil haven’t been giving up a lot of shots in most games this season. I think steal a save that he shouldn’t have is more appropriate. I posted the other day about clutch save/reflex save. Just a few more of those and some of this noise would simmer down. It’s the positional tender or puck blocker vs. the athletic/acrobatic/reflex tender… Skinner can make reflex saves and does but a few more at the right moments it seems is where he struggles. He is a solid goalie. The unicorn is the big/athletic/reflex tender (vasilevsky?) As well the team D in the 3rd period would also help.
Ask yourself this pick any playoff team if we trade the exact same chances do we win the game? Money isn’t everything the Flames look like they have a affordable tandem which will keep them from picking top 5 and will have them chasing playoffs.
Roster is a bit banged up with two good teams coming to town
It would be nice if Skinner could steal a game or two.
Just keep the puck away from Skinner. Play in the O zone, not the D zone.
Prospecta!
The spotlight shines on the Barrie tandem of Akey & Wakely, Attorneys at Law.
It took a few games for Akey to shake off the rust of a long recovery, but has rebounded with 12 points (3+9) his last 11 GP.
Wakely has found the scoresheet in nine of his 11 GP since joining the Colts, tallying 6+7.
They hit the ice at 5 p.m. Colinton time.
Bonus random musical observation: Did Foreigner ever perform under the name Coney Hatch? Man, do they sound alike.
What do folks think about Pettersson as a trade target?
He seems like a solid add pending the price tag. His WOWYs without Crosby are a little scary.
Agree he’s a good hockey player who could help even though her a lefty.
Not as scary as Crosby’s without Pettersson. And Pettersson was also 60% GF without Crosby last season.
So I would consider the early season small sample WOWYs almost meaningless.
It’s the price tag.
With their current set up, would rather chase a Lauzon addition.
I’d really like to see a trade with Nashville for Lauzon and Sissons.
I’m not sure he’s built for playoffs. 6’4 176 lbs. He did have good results the last time they made them though