The most encouraging part of last night came in the post-game. Coach Kris Knoblauch acknowledged Stuart Skinner’s struggles. then said “all the goals are five, 10 feet away from the blue paint. I didn’t think we did enough to get there & defensively we didn’t do a good enough job boxing out.”
Look, Stuart Skinner is not playing well. He’s basically in World War 1 shell-shock mode. However, we’ve seen this from Edmonton goalies before, in fact a pile of them over the last 20 years. The key for Knoblauch, and the Oilers, is to turn this around before they’re trading Devan Dubnyk for Matt Hendricks. We’ll see.
The Athletic article today is about Noah Philp and Sam O’Reilly, two men who should be in the NHL as RH centers in the years to come. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 10-9-2, 22 points in 21 games
The Oilers have another tough home game this week, and it sounds like the injured players won’t be back until next week or later. Darnell Nurse, Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson are key members of this team, and the strain on the roster was clear last night and will be against the Broadway blue shirts.
THE NUMBERS
I think the numbers reflect the team last night. Stuart Skinner needed three more saves, and I think you can make the case Calvin Pickard is the better bet at this time. There’s no sin in checking down to a backup role for Skinner, with the idea of getting him back to previous levels before the postseason. A trade is also a possible option, I don’t think we’re there yet and Juuse Saros is going to cost the earth in cap and assets. A must to avoid, in my opinion.
The top pairing played mostly at par, Evan Bouchard’s struggles continue but I’m willing to live with it because the man does so much to help. If things get dire, the organization may have to acquire someone like Ivan Provorov (Pierre LeBrun has the price at a first-round pick, and of course there’s the cap impact, too) and maybe that’s the way forward. I like Ty Emberson and think he’s a keeper, if Stan Bowman can run Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Provorov and Kulak-Emberson in the postseason that might work. There are others I would prefer over Provorov, but he’s available and that’s a big part of the process.
The top line posted good numbers, I think Knoblauch would be wise to split the glimmer twins in an effort to get two effective lines. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can’t push the river, that’s a fact. Jeff Skinner scored last night, he now has four goals in 21 games. I’d expect him to score more goals in the next 21 games. I think Noah Philp should be here, wrote about it in The Athletic today.
If you came here for a rage article, can’t help you. The story of last night comes down to the Minnesota Wild playing their confident best, Edmonton’s chaos in their own zone continuing unabated, a goaltender having a tough time getting back to his own established level of ability, and a lack of NHL talent due to injury. Edmonton scored three goals last night, the team usually wins when getting there. It didn’t happen, and you will blame the people that you’ve blamed before because the internet is all about “I’m smart, you’re dumb” and that won’t change.
I think the Oilers can win the Stanley Cup with this ‘heart of the order’ and that hasn’t changed. This is a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league, and this team’s floor is stunning based on its ceiling. It is perhaps unprecedented. I’m not going to bury them. Miles to go.
At noon today, you have your chance to tell the world what’s wrong with the Oilers. We’re live on the Lowdown 12-2 this afternoon on Sports 1440 radio. Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck Podcast and Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will join us and we’ll chat about the Oilers and possible trade targets. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: How the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline is growing stronger at centre
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5938013/2024/11/22/edmonton-oilers-prospect-pipeline-centre/
It’s funny, LT, I immediately thought of Dubnyk after that game when the usual voices tried to pin that defensive disasterclass on Skinner.
I remember when Dubnyk was traded, and I just felt relief for him. I don’t think he would have turned it around here.
At the same time, I think Skinner is a different situation. He’s in a good situation, a better team. He’s young, but time is not on the Oilers side.
D’Amato with a great play in OT to strip the puck in the defensive zone and then goes end to end on the breakaway and wins the game.
Rodrigue with 31 saves in a 2-1 win.
Just got home from an event, rewound to see the Philp goal – great forecheck and feed by Savoie.
1-1 with a couple minutes to go in the 3rd.
Rodrigue has 27 saves and just made a couple tough ones to keep the game tied late.
Of note, Jarventie NOT playing again.
Summarizing!
The NCAA’ers carried the NAmateur mail ce soir.
Copponi opposed his former squad Merrimack and put up two goals and an assist.
Lachance assisted on both Copponi goals.
Mazura and Stonehouse each enjoyed an apple.
Day got lit up for five goals on 20 SOG. His night ended after the first period.
O’Reilly, Nicholl, Clattenburg, Berry, and Fischer could not receive soup. They have to slake their thirst with apple cider vinegar instead.
Im saying the Oilers are now predictable. Their effort varies and score varies but their game is similar. 20 games in what can we conclude?
Fourth line is a parts collection, contributes if they can, but no real identity or purpose
Third line skates around a lot, but does little. Brings little else, no physicality, not much intensity, not defensive specialists. They are actually a fourth line, no identity, little impact on the game outcome.
Top 6 has enough parts to be excellent, but underperforming. Perhaps too much skill, not enough puck retrievers and not enough netfront. They like the perimeter. Other team gives them the perimeter, its page one of “when vs the Oilers……” They have skill, knowledge, experience but lack the resolution to do what needs to be done to win.
Penalty kill has no “ownership” by a subgroup; or pride as it did last year. Enthusiasm (seaweed)
Defence has 4 bonafide good players and one Emberson emerging. Combined, they cannot defend their net front from sticks nor bodies. They can pass and move the puck. Breakouts are very good. Offence from back end is good.
Goalies are below average with upside potential.
Is this what you conclude? I think management has seen enough to choose a direction.
Bowman has to find a couple of additions. Kapanen was worth a look but not the right player type. He needs a big, tough, proven defender. And he needs some high motors that will git into the dirty areas.
Knobloch has to find the motivation. Find a group to own the PK. Coach them . Find an identity for the fourth line. Cobble together a third line and give them purpose. Electroshock the top 6, remind them to put the puck in the net directly, no need to put lipstick on everything.
This game plan he trots out night after night is tired. Coach some change, some variance into the team.
This statement is not accurate. Maybe it was early in the season, but certainly not anytime recent. The PK has really turned things around.
Jesse Puljujarvi is now a Make Belief.
Was he traded mid game?
He’s playing tonight against the Jets.
Somebody is into the sauce early and it’s not you.
I did see a rumour today that he might be traded to Toronto for Nick Robertson but as far as I can tell it hasn’t happened.
McCurdy recently had an article at CoH looking at skinner. There was a chart showing goalie GSAA vs team xGA, which I felt had a striking correlation. It seemed the vast majority of goalies on good teams had lower GSAA and only three goalies stuck out for having good results on teams that had good defense: Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck and Gustavsson (Minnesota). Skinner is not these guys, but they are clearly not required for a cup.
This case is screaming for a Sv% on uncontested shots. Maybe I’m seeing the defense bad, but when the D actually covers, Skinner had a chance. He’s been giving up everything uncontested especially with speed.
I think every time the team has a stinker (4 in 6 with travel), many here blame the age of the players.
Just because you want all of your players to be early 20’s in their prime on cheap contracts doesn’t mean they can’t play.
Not to mention Minny is actually quite good. Props to Guerin for being competitive despite hacking off his own arm. Side note: We never seem to beat Minnesota regular season anyway, like how we always beat Chicago in the DoD. Funny thing.
This too shall pass. Vegas got shut out by Toronto, are their defencemen washed and their best players past their primes and slow too?
This blog used to value math.
Vegas has 9 forwards under 30 in their regular lineup.
The Oilers have 3.
Thank you for agreeing with me?
Vegas losing and the Oilers losing can be for very different reasons but age is not likely to be a factor in a Vegas loss.
Vegas does have a couple of relative oldsters in its D corp but Hanifin, Theodore, Whitecloud, Hague and Korczak. would all be considered in their primes.
Of note, Vegas has been quietly locking up its UFA’s this week signing 33 year old Brayden McNabb to a 3 year extension @ $3.65 million and 26 year old Brett Howden on another 3 year deal @ $2.5 million.
Makes me wonder if they are proactively doing these signings before the big jump in the cap.
2.5 per year for a 4th liner yeeeeeeesh
Howden is a 3rd line player, often centre, who has scored 8 goals this season without PP time.
His 9 EVP would rank 3rd among Oiler forwards.
$2.5 million looks just fine especially with the cap about to take big jump.
I will take
What is players shooting over 22% for a 1000 Alex
Would you be shocked to learn Draisaitl is shooting 26.8%
Yes I would say he’s shooting hot but most oilers are shooting cold. But we’re not talking about Drai or the Oilers are we as no one on the Oilers signed a contract today
oh look, a goalpost moving…
Good grief he has been in the league 7 seasons, his rookie season was his best season until this current hot streak this season. He’s anywhere from 10-13mins a night. His career high is 20pts.
He’s a 4th line player, cry about it.
Draisaitl shoots over 21% for his career, cry about it.
Just keep crying.
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1859996828542148836
Looks at these numbers lol 4th line player.
Overpaying two players is not what I would consider proactive
Once the cap jumps over $100 million both will be extreme values.
I thought it was goaltending LOL.
It’s amazing that Edmonton and Nashville had “great” offseasons but the Wild had a terrible one.
Interesting comment considering you didn’t use any math-based argument to justify your theory that age isn’t an issue with the Oilers.
Did it with Henrique earlier with you but okey dokey.
As the oldest team in the NHL:
xGF% SCF% HDCF%
Perry 51% 57% 54%
Nuge 51% 52% 57%
Connor Brown 51% 53% 54%
Hyman 59% 58% 59%
J Skinner 49.9% 49.8% 50%
Arvidsson 58% 56% 63%
Ekholm 61% 62% 63%
Or should I cherry-pick a pointless stat from last season for a guy on a different team?
Would not surprise me also to see Carter Hart show up here to play next year. He’d be cheap, he has pedigree and the Oilers have a history giving players second chances. Bowman can probably relate with someone like Carter Hart.
Not endorsing this by any means, this team just seems to be a haven for these sorts of players lately, Perry, Kane, Keith (to a lesser extent) and Bowman. Hart is a local too.
Hart and the rest of those fellas doubtfully ever dress for an NHL team again once all is said and done. As long as G.B. is commissioner, just can’t see it happening.
Those careers are done
If that’s true and they’re exonerated, the NHL will be on the wrong end of one hefty lawsuit.
I would very highly doubt it. Even if found not guilty being suspended pending result of trial isn’t unheard of
Innocent until proven guilty but he might be in jail, no?
All this talk about trading for goaltenders the team cannot afford makes me laugh. Fix the defense first. If the goalies save percentage doesn’t improve after that, then we can talk about changing the goalies.
Evan Bouchard has a lot of talent, but he has no interest in defending the slot or net front. No sense of urgency or defensive awareness in his own zone. That is painfully obvious.
Maybe if Oilers back his minutes off he would actually find the energy to defend, I don’t know.
Also, most Oiler forwards struggle to recognize who to cover on the backcheck. Or they just don’t have the wheels to get back in the play on the backcheck. Fix these issues and then we can talk about the goaltending.
The Oilers 2 biggest problems are; 1) Every forward making between 3 and 6 million dollars isn’t producing, and several of them look well past their prime. 2) This team was playing 3 legit NHL defensemen last night (and one of them wasn’t interested in defending). The rest are a collection of 6/7 dmen.
Jeff Jackson made some huge roster errors in the 6 weeks he was in charge. And those mistakes have come home to roost.
Last night was a putrid effort from the Oilers. Maybe it was too many games in a short span with the travel day back to Edmonton, plus the Nurse and Hyman injuries.
We should note that the PK did the job again last night. It was only once, but the PK is on quite the run. This should be celebrated!
Now about that PP?
Lots of talk of the Oiler D not boxing out. The crux of the matter is whether they are being coached to play this way or that the players can’t play this way. Regardless, it’s tough to consistently box out when you are as small as the Oilers D group is.
This team is in need of a NHL calibre 2RD.
The coach expressly talked about not doing a good enough job after last night’s game so I don’t think they are being coached to play that way.
Prospectious!
Sorry, don’t have my usual verve or panache today.
Everyone plays at 5 p.m. Sunbreaker Cove time except for the Vermonters and the Barriers.
You are still as consistent as LT himself, which is to be lauded!
The make up of this team is just not good enough. JJ’s gamble is not paying off and I don’t have any confidence with SB, hopefully he can prove me (us) wrong.
Per Tony B:
I don’t know if this was an optional but I presume.
Impossible for me to defend Bouchard or Skinner last night.
Noone was good (maybe Perry, maybe Kapanen who threw four hits and drew two powerplays) but those two were noticeably not in the battle for me.
Nuge needs to join the season, Henrique as well.
I mentioned before the game that I thought the load should be a one-off thing for that Ottawa game and they should be split for last night. At the same time I don’t think a coach has ever gone load up for a game that was a win and then split them the next game.
I would imagine they are split on Saturday.
100 percent Pickard likely starts on Saturday.
I still think a trade for a goalie is highly unlikely but I don’t think its totally out of the question if the ship doesn’t get righted by new-year.
At the same time, I don’t imagine its a Sarros addition – that contract (the new one) is simply not something this org can take on and Sarros is NOT in the Connor H., Sorokin, Sheshterkin tier.
Saros is 100% Sorokin level.
Just last spring Sorokin lost his starters job while Saros did not.
Career #’s
2.53gaa 919save
2.62gaa 917save
Splitting beavers hair on this one.
Sarros is NOT in the Connor H., Sorokin, Sheshterkin tier.
According to the numbers, he is.
GP GAA SV%
366 2.62 .917
Those are the numbers of a legit #1 goalie.
And those are his numbers playing for Nashville, one of the worst teams in the NHL over the first quarter of the season.
Saros absolutely is in that tier.
Friedman on 32 Thoughts (Pod) this morning wonders if the Oilers start to look at goaltending and the market at bit more.
Kyle Bukauskas notes that this is about the time of year that Skinner brought in Adam Francilia to work with him.
I recall Woodley saying that his work with Francila supplemented the stuff he does with Schwartz.
Seems high time to bring this Francila guy on permanently.
Skinner is batting .876 take away his 27 save shutout against the Pens and the numbers are below Campbell’s who was tarred, featherd and run out of town. It’s not panic time but Skinner needs a break and if you have no faith that Pickard can steady the troops then it’s trade time.
Campbell had twice the price tag, if Skinner was being paid like that he’d be in witness protection.
Why do you take away his shutout?
Why don’t you take away his worst game as well (or instead)?
Skinner has started 14 games he’s been .900 or under in 9 games. Feel free to take one of these sub .900 off the board.
So, your point regarding his numbers vis-a-vis Campbell is no longer valid (and wasn’t really to start with), right?
Forgetting Skinner being pulled in the Vancouver series he gained a few feet of rope in game 6 against Dallas. If you think Bowman who has no ties to Skinner-Pickard isn’t shopping for a Goaltender as we speak is surprising.
What?
Clearly not a response to the discussion I was having,
How many pucks are just going through Skinner like they did on Soup?
Skinner is letting a lot in on few shots but he’s fighting opposition traffic and sticks like crazy.
Put yourself in the G.M’s hot seat nobody cares about excuses it’s your neck on the line results matter. How long do you go with a .875 goaltender as your starter. We are lucky to be a game over .500 the body language is starting to show on some players. If Pickard’s not the answer and Skinner continues his uninspiring play what do you do?
D structure is the problem. Especially breaking up the cycle and boxing out. All five men eventually are chasing. I want to see the structure on Defense stabilize before I make a goalie change. Changing the goalie now without addressing this structure is dangerous. I’m not sure I want to be fired at the end of the year either.
Nurse is coming along and Kulak is stepping up. Bouchard and Ekholm are legit when the former isn’t coughing up the puck. I think they need another top 4 dman in the mix. This team misses Ceci. He wasn’t pretty but he did the things they are struggling with. Emberson is showing signs. This team is going to have to plod along at 500 if that’s what it takes but the structure is going to need to get fixed before touching the goalie makes any sense.
So your basically saying fire the Coach it’s the systems fault that Skinner has a 875 average. The Boston Coach just got fired with a .500 record. Do you think they’re not going to fire Coach K.K if we are hovering at .500 in January.
You asked me what I would do if I were GM you want me to trade the goalie I’d rather trade for a D man.
Athletic reporting Gibson would waive his NMC to come to Edmonton
we’re gonna go from “we’re complete confident in our goaltending” To a major reshuffle in two weeks, aren’t we.
I don’t know if Gibson can recover his game but every year is getting less and less likely
Blackwood. There are a few articles out there about Edmonton doing that. His .899 on that team is actually impressive. 1A 1B with Skinner
Blackwood makes more sense to me. He’s 27 and makes $2.35M, he’s UFA next season. he would be in direct competition with Skinner for the starters job. Gibson is only 31, he would probably take over the starters job from Skinner. He makes $6.8M and ducks would need to retain at least half of that making the acquisionn cost higher than Blackwood. Gibson has only played 3 games this season , GAA 2.67 & SV% .910..
Blackwood has played 13 , won 4 GAA 3.07 & SV% .910.
It’s one thing to put up numbers playing for a team with no expectations. It’s another thing altogether to do so for a team with playoff and Cup aspirations, like NJD last season or the Oilers this season.
Pass on Blackwood or Gibson.
If the Oilers are going after a goalie, then a legit #1 like Saros is the target.
What has Saros done?
The same piece reported that the Oilers are not looking to upgrade their goaltending.
Sure they’re not.
Just like the “we are fully confident in our coaching staff”. Statements teams make 2 weeks before canning their coach.
I don’t mind Gibson in a ‘Roloson’ type of nostalgia move. The guy in his 30’s with a weaker team around him (the trap masked the absolute dearth of talent in Minny) getting a chance.
Count me in 50% retained. Good luck telling the wife.
he is certainly old enough, and his performance is declining, seems likely.
Roloson was 36 when he was traded to the Oilers for a first round pick. Gibson is 31.
I ran across something interesting from Quant hockey. NHL Totals by birth city. It has Edmonton 3rd in GP and points and number of players, Toronto and Montreal and 1/2. These look like all time stats
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/city-totals/nhl-players-career-stats.html
Emberson is about 100 games from being a Steve Staois type defender.
The one very good offseason move.
Podkolzin has worked hard but he doesn’t have the offense to bat above 4th line.
I enjoy Podkolzin, he’s definitely a bottom 6 player but he’s a full on gamer.
I would suggest that given (a) acquisition cost (a 4th round pick) and (b) contract ($1MM X 2), it can be considered a very good off-season move – there remains some upside there as well.
There is not much offensive upside there unfortunately.
your implication that a 4th rounder for this player at $1MM x 2 want not a very good summer move….?
I get that the team is slower in spots now. But we should take into account how often they have had a lot of games close together. When they don’t they have pace and energy usually
Second time this month the Oilers have had a serious rest disadvantage in a home game. Badly lost both.
you expect that shit in the road, harder to accept on home ice.
Bruce, any thoughts on how much influence the Oilers Management has, or does not have, on such scheduling quirks?
Yeah we overplay our best players to squeeze out a win and then complain when they run out of gas.
Happens every year.
Yeah we overplay our best players to squeeze out a win and then complain when they run out of gas. Happens every year.
If McDrai is the path forward then the Oilers need to acquire a 2C as neither RNH or Henrique are capable.
Not sure what happened to the quotes.
I’m a proponent of trading for a capable goalie who won’t cost the moon.
Alex Lyon is my pick
Mackenzie Blackwood
Vejmelka
Ullmark
Not bad. Detroit has Talbot & Husso, though no c9mpelling reason to trade their $800k backup, What would it take to make it compelling?
I was thinking they were the target as well. A secret, I like Cam Talbot was hoping for a Talbot Skinner tandem
How’s this:
Arvidsson and Pickard for Alex Lyon and Justin Holl.
Detroit adds scoring and get out from Holl’s contract, while the Oilers get an upgrade at RD and a 1B goalie.
Holl is not an upgrade on any of the d-men we have.
I don’t know much about Justin Holl. He was a 2nd pair RD in Toronto, maybe similar to Cody Cedi. He’s 6’04” and has been a plus player every year since 2019.
Why is he considered negative cap value at $3.4M? Why is Yzerman panned for this signing?
Did Holl’s play fall off a cliff? He doesn’t seem to be an everyday player on a team that’s weak on defense. Detroit just paid to get rid of Jake Walman who appears to be the Sharks’ best D. Olli Maata appears to be keeping his head above water in 9 games with Utah.
Is it Holl, or is Detroit the place where defensemen’s careers go to die?
Pretty sure, yes.
He had really strong results across the board for years in Toronto. Was playing 20 min a night and I figured he could be a legitimate under the radar add at that point.
On joining the Wings he’s dropped down to 15-16 min a night and has managed those ~55% goal shares on the back of ~44% xGoal shares two seasons in a row.
The look under the hood is not pretty, and I don’t think anyone should be paying assets or cap for this player currently.
I see.
My idea was more of a cap swap for underperforming players. Arvidsson is a bit better than Holl, but Lyon is better than Pickard.
For the Oilers they address a need at RD at a cost a bit lower than what they’re jettisoning at RW.
Yeah, maybe Lyon is better than Pickard. Similar age and same career SV% (.904). Same SV% the last 2 years as well (.905), though Lyon played more.
Pretty sure Arvidsson and Holl aren’t in the same ballpark though.
I get that the top players have more giveaways, blocked shots etc because they have the puck more and play more
But that is different than not taking care of the puck. Connor and Drai try far too many low percentage plays and lose possession constantly, at least this season. It’s a momentum killer and leads to a lot of extra defensive pressure, often odd man rushes, or having to scramble to get back. It doesn’t breed team confidence or help build consistent team play
I think a little more commitment to taking care of the puck (and the home net) would be a good way to lead out of this roller coaster
Giveaways last night: Ekholm 5, Bouchard 4, Kulak 3. Those are the top 3 (available) d-men. The bottom 3 beat the puck square.
Not meant to gainsay your point. Puck management is a team wide issue.
For sure. I was getting at that the leaders need to lead the team out of it. The Duo and Ekholm at the top of the list, they are the best players
You need to add the next 3 forward point totals to equal McDavid’s production.
Draisaitl and McDavid have always walked the edge on puck protection.
If the majority of the roster wasn’t playing scared perimeter hockey it wouldn’t look so bad. They’re not doing anything differently then years past.
McDavid is 177th in the league in giveaways/60
Draisaitl is 197th
Ekholm is 304th
This is among the 600 players who’ve played 10 or more games this season.
Bouchard (at 99th in the league) leads the Oilers in giveaways/60.
If one cared to look, they would find that the Oilers are 21st in the league in terms of giveaway rates (ie – they have the 12th fewest team giveaways per toi played).
When you are a team built to outscore your mistakes but your scoring wingers can’t score you are in trouble.
Can’t score, can’t skate. This is a slow-ass team.
Yep. I was skeptical of the narrative but it is hard to deny now.
The Henrique for McLeod swap is looking particularly bad. Henrique looks finished.
Yeah we got him on a “steal” contract but his legs are done.
I can see why Jeff didn’t want to job
McLeod:
xGF% 42.8%
SCF% 41.54%
HDCF% 37.8% (Perimeter player)
Actual GF% 59.09%
Henrique:
xGF% 48.55%
SCF% 53.54%
HDCF% 51.76%
Actual GF% 50%
One’s on a heater, the other is doing fine.
Small. Sample. Size.
McLeod’s actual EV GF% for 23/24 regular season: 56.6%
Slush posted the Playoff drop off.
I like Mcleod’s speed. His chance outputs are running contrary to current production. My point was that this trade being labeled particularly bad is skewed.
Mcleod also no longer plays for a Cup contender, but I don’t have the data to back up quality of team attribution.
McLeod’s GF% is right in line with his 23/24 season with the Oilers, but his season in Buffalo is amplified by a 32 SH%.
It seems that he is playing 3C in Buffalo and a feature on the PK, just as he did with the Oilers.
Comparing stats, contract and age, I think it’s fair to cast a suspicious eye on this move.
Most trades when you trade the best player, you lose the trade.
Ask Boston about trading Joe Thornton.
So who do you realistically think we could get for Bouchard that would actually improve this team?
Bouchard for a Time Machine. Put Coffey in the Time Machine.
Speaking of time machines, one does wonder what the team would look like if we simply kept Broberg, Holloway and McLeod.
Something like this:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Holloway-Draisaitl-Podkolzin
Janmark-McLeod-Brown
Caggiula-Ryan-Perry
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Broberg
Kulak-Emberson
Stecher
Not enough. Juuse Saros and Alexandre Carrier for Stuart Skinner and Bouchard type deals would be the menu of the day, but that’s a summer deal and the cap is craptastic.
Yikes. That would Reinhart trade level bad.
If Nashville is going into a rebuild they’re not going to want Bouchard and his next contract.
Skinner, Savoie, 3 1sts or something along those lines is what a GM rebuilding would be seeking.
I would think a rebuild would be centred around a Bouchard type player.
4th game in 6 nights for the team with travel, they looked it too.
Lots of talk about Saros but why not Gibson? Shorter timeframe on the contract, Anaheim might be open to retain, and the oilers have a good young goalie (Rodrigue) to include in a trade. Pickard to the farm as a backup.
I think having Skinner/Gibson for the next couple years is a solid tandem, if you can get Gibson’s cap hit down to something that works in the structure.
Because Gibson has been brutal for the last 4 years. Maybe he turns it around on a better team. He is far from a sure thing at this point in his career.
Gibson is Henrique level finished
Over the next 3 years or so, I’d bet a significant amount that Rodrigue outperforms Gibson.
Gibson hasn’t had a .905 SV% season since before Holland was hired by the Oilers. (his .906 in 3GP this season notwithstanding).
Seriously, the last time he managed a .905 SV% season was 2018-19. Ty Rattie, Toby Rieder and Kyle Brodziak were Oiler regulars that year. That was the Petrovic, Manning, Spooner season.
Remarkably, his backups have bested him in SV% each of the 6 seasons in question.
What I saw last night is a team that was getting outpaced coupled with getting outbattled in their zone.
There’s only so much a goalie can do when his defense is two steps away from boxing out the opponent.
I went to bed after 2 periods of that lackluster performance.
I’m really surprised at the amount of folks finding fault with Skinner when the defensive structure of this team is DOA most nights.
As our host has suggested, it’s a bit of Column A and a bit of Column B. Stu made a few first saves, but Wild were not impeded and pounced on rebounds.
before last nights game the oilers have been proven to be actually a top 5 defensive team.
I don’t blame stu for any of the goals he let in but now its shear volume of goals he lets in.
Hard to play good D when any mistake ends up in your net
It’s fair to say he’s not playing as well as he has before, and not mean he’s not a good goalie and should be traded. They need to give Pick more starts and see how that works. There are two goalies for a reason. I get they want to get Stu going, but on the other hand it’s pro sports and results matter. Best player up
It’s fair to say the roles of the two Oiler goaltenders are clearly defined. Skinner is the starter and Pickard is the backup. Unfortunately, Edmonton doesn’t have a 1a/1b type of goaltending tandem. To expect too much from Pickard would be a mistake. Here lies the conundrum.
On the season, the defensive structure has been better than the goaltending, via the numbers from various platforms.
Perhaps not last night, but on the season.
I don’t agree with calling the Oilers a 4-3 team … they aren’t scoring goals at a rate that supports that claim. Their defensive fancy stats strongly suggest that they are a 3-2 or even a 2-1 team … which is fine by me, because teams that win Cups can defend. But they don’t have the goaltending to play that style.
Fleury is 39 … one of the goals scored on him last night was an extreme fluke. The other two required fortunate bounces. Skinner was outplayed by Fleury. Night after night, he has been outplayed by the other teams netminder. In the playoffs, he was outplayed by Bobrovsky. There is enough history on Skinner to indicate that the high ceiling and bottomless pit that is this team’s floor is directly tied to whether Skinner can make stops on a given night.
The Oilers season will turn around when they get a legit number one goalie … and no, that’s never going to be Skinner. There is simply too much variance in his game. They need someone back there who they can consistently depend on.
I absolutely would go and get Saros. Elite goalies play for a long time (see Fleury). And the goal is to get a Cup this season. With the cap going a lot in the next few seasons, his contract will not be that onerous. They’ll just have to figure out how to jettison enough dead weight to make him fit this season.
In 2023-24, Edmonton averaged 3.56 GF and 2.88 GA and that’s (kind of) a 4-3 team. I don’t think we’ve seen the full 2024-25 Oilers and suspect they’ll recover to those numbers. Currently, they are 2.76GF and 3.19 GA (via Hockey-Reference) and you’re right most of the downbeat is goals-for.
I suggest that last years team had three big fast forwards that were willing to play a 200 foot game and were also good on the penalty kill .We let them go and replaced them with players who are maybe willing to play that kind of game but because of age size and speed just can’t can’t effectively do it.
2023/24 GF% Reg season 5v5
Foegele 51.09
McLeod 56.52
Holloway 48.15
2023/24GF% Playoffs 5v5
Foegele 34.62
McLeod 25
Holloway 58.33
2022/23 GF% Reg season 5v5
Foegele 54.69
McLeod 50.94
Holloway 50
2022/23 GF% Playoffs 5v5
Foegele 37.5
McLeod 44.44
Holloway DNP
That’s the story. I would like Holloway for sure on the team
Right now they are near the bottom of the league in both shooting % and save %. The PP/PK differential is near the bottom of the league. All of these are going to regress back to the norm.
And for all the complaining about our defensive game, we are giving up less chances and expected goals that an average NHL team. You can look at any goal and find blame on the skaters, but 75% of our issues in GA is simply goaltending.
The Oilers also make huge mistakes on the regular. Not all teams have this as a feature
This is a narrative that I’m not sure is true.
Its not backed up by the numbers, and I’m not talking about NST but by Clear Sigh Analytics and similar type platforms.
My eye test also does not lead me to that conclusion. On many many many nights, I see the opposition make major mistakes leading to glorious chances by the Oilers – just as much if not more often as those mistakes made by the Oilers themselves.
The numbers won’t show the big mistakes. LT calls them single moments or whatever, and every team makes some. The Oilers’ coverage breakdowns are pretty apparent. Guys wide open in the slot, not tied up in close etc. The D as a group aren’t great down low. I don’t know if it’s the system, the players or both, but a zone D is pretty standard fare that they have all played
Better tending would help, but Skinner’s recent numbers aren’t bad. That being said he is also making some critical mistakes every game mostly, and because they are having trouble scoring consistently it’s a dagger
I’d like if Curlock would have a look at what they are doing or not executing
So they’re are 2-3 team in a 3-2 league currently heh heh
Before last night Oilers were 10-0-1 when scoring 3+.
They scored their 3rd in the last half minute of a lost cause to end that run.
When scoring 2 or fewer they are 0-8-1.
Interesting stat… I also believe last night was their first loss with a fight for the Oilers
It was a fight in statistic only – in my opinion.
GA/GP 3.19
On average, they need to score 4 to win.
GF/GP 2.76
That was last season. Different year, different team.
A lot of goals that are scored in the NHL are fluky and Edmonton actually scored some flukes last night, they just don’t score enough fluky goals, too much skill, I guess. The Wild were the better team last night without question. Fleury didn’t have many tough saves to make except for the three that got past him. If Skinner could be so lucky.
In the Finals:
Skinner was 2.33GAA and .909SV%
Bobrovsky was 2.67GAA and .899SV%
Stolarz also played 35 minutes with a 5.17GAA and .842SV%
Having a structured D that can box out with gusto and move the puck smartly would sure help the goalie situation
Oh Ya, Minny are big, fast and very well coached. They look great early on. That top 4 is a great D
I’m having a hard time defending Stuart Skinner these days.
This is going to be wildly unpopular but if I were GM I would start fielding or placing calls on Bouchard. This team shouldn’t be want for firepower, but it needs to tone down the chaos in its own end. You have to get to give in this world and Bouchard would provide a fine defensive return and truly stabilize the D. I get it, the Oilers drafted and developed him. His is an amazing talent. But I think its perfectly acceptable, perhaps the responsible thing even, to be kicking tires.
This team is so frustrating to watch this year.
The D was absolutely terrible last night.
Skinner let out some juicy rebounds that found sticks in close.
Was he to blame ? No , but he added to the frustration and has on most nights this year that he has played. You cannot let in 3 goals a game let alone 4 or 5 a night and win , especially this year with the lack of O and a very poor pp.
The speed lost this past off season is really showing in the 1st 20 games. The guys brought in who were supposed to add offense regardless of their speed have sputtered and not helped out much.
The team is in a very tough spot right now and the cavalry is not coming to bail them out. They don’t have many trade chips and teams will try to get extra pieces dealing with a team in trouble. Sure they have some key injuries, but the depth ( that was supposed to be very good) is terrible.
Nuge and Henrique are nowhere near line drivers this year so you cannot have McD and Drai on the same line ( sure a few shifts) .
The good news is that the pk is going great right now and no one is running away with the Pacific right now.
They have only beaten 2 teams that are in playoff positions this year ( Vancouver and Calgary) . That is not a great stat.
We all keep hoping they will come around, and get hope when they play a couple good ones then they kill us off with a terrible performance again.
I don’t think anyone has a clue which team we will see on any given night.
Have any of you ever seen McD this frustrated and actually showing it in his mannerisms on ice of late ?
It really is frustrating and disappointing and hard to watch this group right now.
No clue what team shows up against NY on Sat. Hopefully Nurse is back as he was playing very well when he got hurt.
Go Oil.
Of all the injuries, we need Nurse back asap. Stecher looks overwhelmed out there, and Brown shouldn’t be in an NHL line up.
Stu learned from Mike Smith you only need to become effective after firing a coach in-season.
Been complaining about the boxing out or lack thereof since the beginning of the season and it was also the thing that was costing them games at the beginning of last season.
Stu often makes the saves: the ones he can see and the ones that aren’t rebounds being gobbled up by unmolested forwards. Should Stu be making every second save as well or have better rebound control? Nice thing to hope for, but I thought we needed a .900 goalie not a Vezina goalie, and I also thought Stu would be backing up said goalie… now we want Stu to deliver Vezina level goaltending because:
1) Soup was a dramatic failure and he is stepping into a starting role that in 2024-25 was still intended as a back up role. Good for Stu.
2) Evan Bouchard provides so much offensive pop that we can’t sit him even as he treats everything in his own blue paint like fine china.
3) This supposedly dynamite offence can’t piss a drop.
The Wild got some lucky goals, they were lucky the Oilers were just standing around not doing much of anything.
Exactly.
They also had 2 called back.
The Oilers had fortunate bounces on 2 of their goals, 1 of them an all-timer, & the third came deep in garbage time.
this was not a close game. Look at the xG% for the lines & pairings in the post above.
Yes, the score was flattering.
Agreed. At no point did that really seem like a game the Oilers would win. Maybe at the 27 second mark.
Do we have anything beyond the eye test that says the Oilers commit more or larger mistakes? Or give up more rebounds? I don’t trust my eyes, because when the Oil F up, I’m looking to see if it was Bouchard or Nurse. When we bang in on a goal off a scramble, I’m not looking at what happened with their D. When we pick off a pass, I focus on the great play by our guy not the mistake. Most unbiased (theoretically) stats suggest we are a good defensive team….
Which brings me to the goalie(s). I think I’m less biased in evaluating goalies, when we score one I’d want Stu to stop I usually say so. I’m not a goalie expert, but Stu seems to get beat through traffic more than the average NHL goalie, perhaps deeper in his crease, not as good at tracking, and/or more gaps in his stance. He plays small. Rebound control has never been great, but they are coming back out in front right now. IMO every goalie in the NHL should make the stops you expect (on most nights), good goalies take goals away. My test for Stu has been how often he has outplayed the other goalie, and through much of last years playoffs and all of this year he is usually the 2nd best goalie in the game. This team is (or was) good enough to deal with that, but given his age I keep hoping the scales will tip in our direction.
I think the eye test can be a good way of noting bad habits that the team makes consistently…. Not sure it’s a question of comparison to competition rather than to expectations of a team that just went to Game 7 of the SCF. That’s 22 games ago. We can observe that team making the kinds of fundamental mistakes that aren’t really validated by data or not—they should simply not be part of the game of an elite team. First two goals of the game yesterday Bouchard isn’t taking the man, one’s a rebound bang in the net the other is an unmolested screen… eye test matched the coach’s POV anyway.
I don’t disagree. What I don’t know is how frequently those same mistakes happen on other teams, but aren’t noticed because a goalie makes a save or because we assign credit to our player. Hockey is a game of mistakes, but I can only comment in detail on Edmonton’s. I don’t notice as much with other teams, outside of their goaltender. How many of Hyman’s goals last year could have been prevented by solid defending at the edge of the crease? No idea. But I can recall the times Oil defenders left a man unchecked. Maybe it’s just me.
I get that but why do we need to concern ourselves with the opposition which is varyingly anywhere from 1-32 best in the league, when what we want to assess is the Oilers’ play — we want to assess their play against their own progression and with the expectation that they ought to be one of the best in the NHL at every position. So if they aren’t scoring they better button down the D. I expect them to be better than the opposition but more importantly I expect them to be as good as they demonstrate they can be.
Saros? Too dear a cost.
Gibson? Too not the 10-years-ago version.
Nedeljkovic (or choose your own 2.5M ish tendy)? Too much like the issue we already have.
Not to wade too much into the Wallstedt/Cossa etc. argument, but it’s times like these you wish the team had another option bubbling under in Bakersfield.
And they do. Rodrigue with a 919 save %. Perhaps they should see what they have in him and not be so risk adverse. It’s not like Skinner in his present form is giving them much.
Don’t disagree, but not sure how much the org values Rodrique at this point. If he was “ready” he’d be the backup and Picks would be elsewhere
but he’s “readier” than Wallstedt, in the here and now, no?
I don’t know. Bouchard was ready for a long time before he got his chance. Same with Broberg.
Rodrigue is a much more substantial goaltender than Wallstedt in the AHL in the here and now.
No, this is not to say that he’s close to Rodrigue as far as value or ceiling but, if we are talking about “times like these”, Rodrigue is the better AHL tender.
We always lose to Minnesota.
But it’s how you look doing it. The lack of structure in the second period cannot happen. Goalie, sure, but if this was pin-the-tail on the donkey, you’d have no shortage of asses to nail.
I imagine the coach’s seat is a few degrees warmer this morning. They’re not there yet, but the season opening was the first step in the process, and this past week was a strong second. Can’t look like a team full of rooks when the GM has filled it with vets.
Once again this team is re-living mistakes of the past. You can’t fire the team. And there’s no cap space for major surgery. KK is the most vulnerable here if the trends continue. And rightly so.
He doesn’t strike me as the type to panic. Hopefully he can get them back to button-down toot sweet.
Great post. No shortage of asses to nail. Ha!
There seems to be a malaise with this group. I don’t think they will ever be accused of outworking the other team but can outskill them. Intersting numbers but the Oil get outhitt every game, is that a proxy for working hard and being hard to play against, maybe? Last night, the team leaders in physical contact were Caggiula (3), Kapenan (4), J Brown (3), Perry (2), and even Skinner (2). mostly new guys does this suggest that the core is soft and not committed or they are hard headed and will only win their way, or some of both?
I am just a fan with a computer but I don’t think the head coach’s job in in jeopardy at all.
That isn’t to say he can’t be, or shouldn’t be, criticized for various things but I don’t think he is going anywhere this season.
I never said he was on the brink of being fired. I said the team has taken two steps in that direction. And that if the trends continue his seat will get warmer and warmer. Keep playoffs in doubt as we head deeper into the season and C-suite is not going to be impressed.
And there is no possibility of sweeping changes or cavalry by trade. Which makes the coach a target.
And I’m stating, because LT doesn’t, that some of the woes this season rest on the coach… the way they came out of training camp, the lack of both structure and composure last game. These are coaching issues. His bosses will not be oblivious to these facts.
Of course nothing is on the radar right now, but things tend to happen slowly… and then all at once. And, as I point out, KK could easily right the ship. But he has to be feeling some pressure to do so. We will see what the future holds.
I get it. Scheduling gords are cruel with 6 games in 10 nights and the injury gords are even more cruel.
But with the early season hart trophy winner coming to town you would expect more push back
oh yeah and Jeff skinner is as bad defensively as I said he was
At least Jeff Skinner scored a goal, and it wasn’t fluky like the first two, in that shorthanded scheduled loss.
The world is a vampire
Sent to drain
Secret destroyers
Hold you up to the
flamesAnd what do I get
For my pain?
Betrayed desires
And a piece of the game
Despite all my rage, I am still just a rat in a cage
Despite all my rage, I am still just a rat in a cage
Someone will say, “What is lost can never be saved”
Despite all my rage, I am still just a rat in a cage
We fired Soupy into the sun for playing 5 games at this level. Time to give Pickard some games and go goalie shopping
I’d settle for giving Capt some consecutive starts. Let Stu get his head together
Uhh Campbell was a sub .900 goalie for his year and half with the Oil.
Yes and he was fired into the sun for his 870 sp games
I’m not so sure it matters who’s in net they need to be more conscientious defensively. Either that or they need to start out scoring the opposition. The Oilers need to be a 7-5 team in a 3-2 league.
41 games.