Rangers at Oilers, G22 2024-25

When I was a young person, the New York pro teams looked this way: The Knicks were old and very good, so good they would win a championship with a team full of men who could ride the bus on the cheap because they were so aged; The Mets, who had a pitching staff for the ages, led by Tom Seaver; The Yankees, who were about 81-81 each season, led by a man named Bobby Murcer who had to pay for the sin of not being Mickey Mantle; and the NY Rangers, who were good but couldn’t get past my Bruins nor Sam Pollock’s Montreal Canadiens. The real heroes of the era were Bill Torrey and Al Arbour on Long Island, but it wasn’t fully formed at the time.

For this era, both baseball teams are impressive, the Knicks have a pulse, and the Rangers should have celebrated a Stanley at some point this century. This year, the team is 12-5-1, owns a goal edge of 63-44 and have some outstanding players. No one is talking about them really, because the Carolina Hurricanes are the talk of the Metro and the NJ Devils/Washington Capitals are right there with the Broadway blue shirts. How good are the NYR? We’ll find out tonight.

Noah Philp scored a huge goal (set up on a brilliant play by Matthew Savoie) last night for the Bakersfield Condors. Philp should be in the NHL now. Here’s why.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
• At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• November results: 5-3-1, 11 points in 9 games
• Oilers in 2024-25: 10-9-2, 22 points in 21 games

The Oilers have had a productive November, but a downbeat final week would ruin some good work from earlier. I have tonight as a loss, and the team going 1-2-0 for the rest of November. That would leave the team 11-11-2 on the year, and in need of a long December, with reason to believe that this year will be better than the last.

CONDORS

Watching last night’s Condors game, several prospects impressed. Matthew Savoie did all the work on the regulation goal, forechecking like a demon and then sending a bullet pass to Noah Philp who drilled the puck home. I suspect we’ll see both men in the NHL later this year, and of course Philp has already made his NHL debut. The NHL’s ‘we are going to target this guy as being not eligible for the Calder Trophy and then suffer the consequences evermore’ rookie rule excludes Philp. That means this edition of the Oilers have yet to have an official NHL rookie make an appearance. Philp is a good player, he should be here.

No one is talking about Olivier Rodrigue but he is the owner of a .925 save percentage and he was brilliant last night in an OT win. I thought Noel Hoefenmayer was impressive, too. Condors have another guy on an AHL deal (Daniel D’Amato) who is doing this year what Cameron Wright did one year ago: Earning an NHL deal.

OILERS AT FIVE-ON-FIVE

Excluding the first three games of the season, Edmonton’s five-on-five numbers are solid. The team’s expected goal share (53.7 percent) is fourth best in the NHL. The actual goal share is 51.39 percent, which is No. 14 across the NHL. GF-60 at five-on-five is 2.47 (15th), GA-60 is 2.34 (18th) and save percentage is .910 (19th). Regression should come, and I remain alert for the “Stan Bowman makes a move” moment and we’ll see how they shine. Personally, I’d stay the course, perhaps recalling Noah Philp in an effort to improve the bottom-six forwards.

TONIGHT

The Oilers victories lately have come during games when Connor McDavid is firing on all pistons. He is 6-13-19 in 13 games against the Manhattan Transfer, and scored one of his iconic goals against them in the fairly recent past. I’ll be looking for more impressive play by Ty Emberson and Calvin Pickard has a nice run going and could see increased work as we enter actual winter 2024-25.

TRACERS: CAM TALBOT

I wrote the following about Cam Talbot on June 1, 2015. He would become an Edmonton Oilers starter later that month. I think Bowman may be thinking along these lines.

I think the Oilers could get Talbot for No. 33 overall, and I’d be willing to make that trade (and believe me, there’s zero doubt these early picks have extreme value). We’ll see, and there is danger (he’s one year from UFA) but Talbot looks like a perfect fit for Edmonton at this time. Woodguy’s fine work in this area suggests Talbot and Jonathan Bernier are the top targets, securing Talbot (while also retaining a second, later second-round pick) would be an astute move by Peter Chiarelli.

Leon had a fantastic season, despite the wonky decision-making by the Oilers front office. As was the case with Anton Lander, the Oilers decided he was ready and that was moved, seconded and passed into law without any thought about the possible implications. Fast forward to end of December, and MacT finally turned the rig around and got Leon to junior. Where he proceeded to work hard and help his team win hockey games, and they won enough of them to get into OT at the Memorial Cup final game. I think Kelowna may have been the better team, but it’s a coin flip (that’s the nature of the tournament) and congratulations to the Oshawa Generals. That kid who scored twice is a nice player.

A quick note on Leon in regard to next season. The Oilers have a nice situation in the fall, with Connor McDavid joining a trio of NHL centers (Nuge, Lander, Gordon) and some interesting options (Leon among them) in the bubbling under category. I think the Oilers will try to send Draisaitl down to Bakersfield but there’s every chance he’ll beat the competition for the 3L spot and end up playing with Lander. We’ll see, but there’s not close to enough quality imo to keep him off the roster unless the Oilers decide to send him down no matter how well he plays.

I think it’s also possible we see Boyd Gordon dealt at the draft. Now, before you go crazy, let’s remember that Todd McLellan didn’t employ a shut down line with punishing zone starts, preferring instead to roll the four lines equally in terms of ZS. If that is the plan, then Gordon’s main use will have been neutralized and a team like Vancouver (who are shopping Eddie Lack) may become interested. As you’ll recall, Vancouver was interested in Gordon at the time Edmonton signed him.