I’ve been talking about ‘high ceiling’ and ‘low floor’ Oilers for much of the season, and the last two games give us terrific examples. This team delivers the highest highs and lowest lows possible for a team that will be a strong Stanley Cup contender in the spring. The Oilers 2024-25 are like a duet between Barry White and Kate Bush: Wuthering Heights to Bottom End. Kate Bush was running up that hill last night at Rogers Place.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 6-3-1, 13 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 11-9-2, 24 points in 22 games
The Oilers November results have them on a 100-point trajectory and the team is within four points of first place. It’s not an ideal spot, the club hasn’t won a division championship since Prince’s Purple Rain was an oldie, but if the club can find a repeatable game the Pacific could land in Alberta in 2025.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner got the start, something of a surprise for me. I thought Kris Knoblauch would run with Calvin Pickard, who has been the better goaltender this season. Skinner responded with a strong game, especially impressive to see him deliver on all eight high-danger chances.
Evan Bouchard scored, some chaos too but it came on a night when the errant passes didn’t land in the net. There’s a thin line between ‘he’s a chaos blue’ and ‘he’s creative and not everything works’ and it usually has something to do with the goals for column.
Darnell Nurse sccored, he’s played well for some time and when alongside Brett Kulak the Oilers have an impressive second pair. We are through 75 minutes now at five-on-five and they are 3-1 goals and 66 percent expected goals. I think it’s time for the coaching staff to run with them. I also like Ty Emberson, he is 6-7 goals five-on-five over the last couple of weeks.
The Oilers received offense from a varied group of forwards last night. The Glimmer Twins were running hot, when they’re on and have room to wheel it’s breathtaking. Absolute hockey brilliance.
It was nice to see Vasily Podkolzin score his first goal as an Oilers player, he has six points in 22 games now but will never catch Dylan Holloway and his impact offensive season with the St. Louis Blues. Bruce McCurdy on the Lowdown this week said something like it must be painful for Canucks fans to watch Podkolzin thrive and I think that’s probably true. Vancouver rarely trades with Edmonton, and when they do, players tend to perform well here. Even Garry Lariviere outperformed Blair MacDonald for my money.
Connor Brown took a little trip to the second line and showed well, Nuge looked better to my eye and that’s a big damn deal. He’s been in a fog lately.
I thought the Adam Henrique line played well, and have decided that Mattias Janmark has earned the honor of honorary Finn. He may not like that label, but he’s as useful as all those fabulous Finnish players who have played in this city over many years. On another note, an acutal Finn (Kaperi Kapanen) delivered a point in his second game and doesn’t look out of place with the eton rifles.
Drake Caggiula is not going to lose his job (despite being sent down last night along with Josh Brown) if he keeps playing this rambunctious style. I wonder how long he’ll stay healthy, though. Game damn rooster.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ defensive deployment reveals surprises
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5942242/2024/11/24/edmonton-oilers-defensive-deployment-suprises/
Methinks Nurse getting clocked by Reeves might turn out to be one of those tipping points whereby said player, aimlessly chugging along suddenly gets woken up to the reality of life in the NHL.
You fools have no idea what constitutes success.
I pity the fool
He was playing well before that. I think the coaches had something to do with it
Summarizing!
Münzenberger led the charge offensively (!!) with a pair of assists in a win. He was named 2nd star.
Määttä and Akey each recorded a helper.
O’Reilly didn’t get a point in 65 minutes but scored the shootout winner in the sixth round to give London its 15th straight win. Also had a team-high 5 SOG.
Stonehouse (despite 6 SOG), Nicholl and Wakely were denied tasty soup.
Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.
The 21st shot on Rodrigue goes in – a quick deflection in tight under the bar.
Colorado takes the lead on a PPG – cross-crease pass to the backdoor – Rodrigue could have maybe blocked the pass – his only chance.
Condors kill off the long 5 on 3 and then, an Eagle attacker shoots one wide, it goes around the boards and out and Griffith picks it up on a fast break and rips home the 1-0 from the bottom of the circles.
Fun!
Grubbe is often PK1 but Phil started the 5 on 3 and killed the first 25 seconds.
No score after one, shots 15-14 Condors. Rodrigue with some tough saves in there.
Grubbe with a heavy hit with under a minute left in the first – not the cleanest of hits, kind of half from behind and half from the side.
A bru ha ha results but not real fights.
Condors SH with 34 second left in the first.
Oooop, they clear it over the glass (Wanner this time, they did it earlier as well) and will be down 5 on 3 for a full 2 minutes (essentially).
Condors start their first PP with 3 d-men – Petrov and Wright as the forwards…. Did this a bit last game as well.
Top line was on ice to draw PP.
Other unit has 4 forwards and they come out at first stoppage.
No Jarventie again today – sigh.
Not surprising but no Brown or Caggia and lineup looks similar to last game.
Rodrigue with the start which is notable – it’s not back to back games (played Friday) but back to back starts.
Actually, I stand corrected, third straight start for Rodrigue.
The programming geniuses at CTV/TSN thought we’d rather watch Chiefs vs Panthers today over Vikings vs Bears
This is known as being bad at your job!
I’d say scheduling a game from a trying to milk the best ratings standpoint and choosing the game that has the defending super bowl champions with the reigning superpower MVP and a chance to attract a billion swifties to tune in to catch a glimpse of their hero would make them good at their job.
Added bonus, Sherwood Park’s Chubba Hubbard
That’s kinda cool, I’m a born and raised Edmontonian, but currently live in North Carolina, until now never realized Hubbard was a hometown kid. Thanks for that!
The NFL used to program on the basis of playoff implications so you got to see two teams with competitive records in a game that actually meant something in the standings.
Now they program on the basis of fanbase size. So you get a mediocre Cowboys team in a meaningless game against Washington, or the Swiftie Chiefs against a horrible Panthers team.
Neither of these games are compelling matchups for actual football fans. But it’s Taylor Swift’s world apparently and we’re just living in it
The problem with this approach of course is you televise enough mediocre games and eventually the eyeballs go elsewhere.
I totally agree with you on this point, however for a Canadian broadcaster that is showing a league in a country that has no affiliations with any team it makes sense to choose the games that will provide maximum viewership and thus maximum potential for revenue on any given game they choose, so from that perspective, I don’t think it is fair to say that people are bad at their jobs for the choice they made.
Exactly so.
One could argue that Canadian broadcasters should prioritize games that have a “local” viewership such as Buffalo (Toronto) and Seattle (Vancouver) since there are considerable existing fanbases.
There are many thousands of Bills and Seahawks fans on this side of the border and it’s likely Atlantic Canada has many fans of New England.
Maximizing viewership (and revenue) will always skew toward those teams.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1134840/frequency-watching-football-sports-fans/#:~:text=During%20an%20October%202023%20survey,were%20the%20favorite%20NFL%20team.
Vikes and Bears now into OT.
Wow. Who could have possibly foreseen this as one of the best game in the early window? Shocker.
The Chiefs Panthers game went down to the last play.
In a meaningless game where the favourite won and the Panthers have zero chance of making the playoffs.
Apparently a lot football fans want to see a 9-1 team vs a 3-7 team.
Not my idea of a great matchup.
But hey, maybe we’ll get to see Taylor in a luxury box. Thrilling!
Division games are usually tight even if one team is a clear favourite.
The NFL is on every channel, do people get just some games? I got four early games and I don’t care about any of them.
If you have the TSN/Sportsnet package, you get the games they program.
Because of the NFL’s regional coverage rules, we always get the Seahawks game for example.
You have to buy the full NFL package to get every game on the schedule.
The Chiefs seem to be broadcast every week regardless of whether they’re playing a contending team or not. Suspect part of that is them being the champs, part Kelce/Swift.
Funny to hear Podkolzin compared to Puljujarvi on the broadcast last night.
First Jesse was a lottery pick while Vasily went outside the top 5. Second, Podkolzin demonstrates much more puck sense and positional awareness imo. They mentioned last night that the top players enjoy playing with him. You weren’t hearing that kind of verbal about Puli towards the end of his tenure here
Podkolzin is looking like a worthwhile reclamation project to these eyes. Would be a nice dagger in the Canucks if he establishes himself as a longterm middle six option here.
Interesting that the last chance Texaco for Jesse is happening under an analytics driven GM like Dubas. The spreadsheet boys remain his biggest advocates.
I remember being interested in Podz during that draft. Didn’t know much about him but the verbal was pretty good.
I know he is more than likely never going to be a 30 goal scorer but I’d love for him to at minimum (probably could be better) have a Janmark career. I cheer for Janmark like crazy because of the effort he displays and I see that same effort for Podz.
what do folks think about Jiricek?
Right shot Broberg 2 years younger. Not a help now option it seems given PuckIQ usage and results. In that the Jackets aren’t a strong team, but he also isn’t yet helping them be a better team, he’s young, can’t stick in the bigs. Lots of potential
…minus the sweet, smooth boots (Coffee-like). He does skate quite well though, just not the level of Bro.
Would be an ideal Broberg replacement in the pipeline, but doesn’t sound like the Oil have the trade assets. Would take a player like Savoie and that’s a tough chip to send out with Jiricek bouncing back to the A atm. You’d probably want to see more up arrows to make sure this isn’t a Griffin Reinhart type trade.
Plain and simple the Blue Jackets want too much for him.
Trading him now for pennies on the dollar would be foolish imo. D do not develop in a straight line. Giving up a 6OV pick too early is something bad orgs tend to do. CBJ needs to be more patient.
Very good timing for a few days off. Injured players/sick players can hopefully get up to speed.
Also, the Oilers often struggle in December iirc so a lighter schedule going into the month is good news.
Entertaining game last night, as always when the good guys win and score a bucket of goals.
Very good game from a lot of players, but a shout out to Skinner for bouncing back and to Nurse for his 1st game back from a big hit.
The PK continues to rock it! Heck of a turn around.
Interesting problem of what will happen when Hyman, Arvidsson and Kane are back.
Caggiula and Ryan are 2 of the obvious candidates to drop. I’d have a hard time taking others off the team, even Perry.
(Source: Moneypuck)
In terms of expected goals 5×5/60, McDavid and Hyman are 1st and 5th in the league.
Other interesting notes are that Jeff Skinner is 17th, Henrique is 52nd while Draisaitl is 158th (although I might expect that for a sharp shooter).
3 other Oilers in the top 200 are Viktor 123, Vasily 136, RNH 183rd
Perhaps suggests more patience with some of the underperforming players this year
Not a bad situation. Infinitely preferable to hoping the junior call up catches fire and then a panic trade.
Very interested to see what the coaches lines are going to look like when RW1 and RW2 return to action.
Imagine a boat of Janmarks hitting your shores to raid your village.
are they there for the annual litter clean up?
That would be a boat of Henrique’s
This Oiler team can get younger and faster in a flash.
I like,
Skinner/McDavid/Kapanen
Podkolzin/Draisaitl/Arvidsson
Janmark/Hopkins/Hyman
Brown/Henrique/Perry
I’d try to play the top 2 lines and bottom 2 lines about the same 5×5 as much as possible.
I see what you’re trying to do by spreading the skill around, but 4th lines simply don’t get that much 5×5 time. This may work if you throw out the glimmer twins with Hyman as a “5th line.”
Additional problems are Skinner against 1st line composition and putting Henrique down to 4th line when he’s been playing better.
I would prefer:
RNH/McDavid/Hyman
Podkolzin/Draisaitl/Arvidsson
Skinner/Henrique/Janmark
Brown/Philp-Ryan/Perry-Kapanen
When Kane is back, he is a complete wild card. If he can return to top 6 winger then they’ll have great problems (and may benefit from a trade from strength)
Imo they’d find more then enough ice time for the Henrique line. It would be far superior to what they’re rolling out giving the coach the ability to not run the top 6 into the ground before the real season begins.
If the coach could keep the top 2 lines under 20mins and the bottom 2 between 12-15 I think that would set up for a healthy and fresh feeling second season.
Really like Kapanen’s speed and would like to see him not rotating in and out.
Rather have Skinner running coat tails off of McDavid then trying to cover the assignments of whatever is being asked of Henrique.
I think when Kane comes back, Skinner will be in the press box consistently unless he waives his NMC.
I agree that your line up is mostly what happens
That’s fair. I like Skinner on the line from last night because his role is clear – he needs to get in and shoot, as the most skilled offensive forward on the line.
Have Janmark and Hyman ever played on the same line? They both have similar styles. That trio is all good, but not sure how they would play together on a “checking line.”
We also have a good amount of evidence that RNH McDavid and Hyman are dynamite. The results weren’t happening thus far, but the analytics were still saying it’s only a matter of time
The team will eventually be much better with Philp.
That may be a next year event.
Thoughts I was not expecting to have this morning: imaging the pure joy and wonder of a Barry White / Kate Bush collaboration!
”Mmm, yes, baby.”
I’m BJ MacDonald!
-Road hockey warriors, circa 1978
Cowboy Flett was also a favourite.
Prospectmas!
A surprisingly busy Sunday with fully half of the NAmateurs in activity.
It’s been a long damn time since both O’Reilly and Nicholl tallied in a game, but they did it yesternight as London rolled to its 14th straight win. They conclude a 3-in-3 weekend vs. the House of Stone and the Three Score & Sevens (a forgotten psychedelic folk group from the Summer of Love).
The Colts of Barrie toil too, with Wakely scoring the GWG and earning 1st star anoche, and Akey earning an aPPle.
The Vermonters complete the sched.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ noon
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 1 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 2 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Campsie time.
Who would have thought that this mythical partner for Nurse was sitting next to him the whole time.
I would like a Stetcher upgrade but that should be a lot easier to do than finding a 2Rhd this season
Agreed, crazy. Let’s hope that Kulak can keep up this level of play on the end pairing through an entire season and SC run.
Damn spell check. “on the 2nd pairing through an entire season and SC run”
Tidbit from Kurt Leavins:
Nurse scored a big goal on his return Saturday, and it was short-handed. He is now tied for first amongst active defencemen in the NHL with six short-handed goals
Very cool note!
He moved past Kevin Lowe & Lee Fogolin, who killed a LOT of penalties together back when the Oilers were the most prolific SHG club in NHL history, who each had 5. He’s second all time among Oilers D behind Paul Coffey who had 15 including an amazing 9:in one season.
Nurse’s 79 carerr goals are 2 behind Charlie Huddy for second among Oilers D, his 70 EVG is comfirtaby in second behind only Coffey, & he is #1 with a bullet in career overtime goals with 6 (Brewer, Bouchard 3 each). For a guy who doesnt play a lot of PP (just 3 career PPG) he has way better offensive numbers than generally rated.
Bruce… love your stats but I will gracefully decline any offer playing Trivia Pursuit with you…
Caggiula is a little monster. He is the only guy who hits a lot. Podkolzin does some , but every shift Drake is giving it his all.
So far in 2 games Kapanen his been a pleasant surprise. He definitely has some speed which this team can use. Like to see him involved in some pk action as he was very good at one point doing that.
Nurse is playing great and good on him. That pairing was great last night.
The Henrique line probably had the best night of the year.
Nice to get a week off to heal up and give some rest to the ancient ones in Perry and Ryan.
But a great win after that debacle on Thursday. They just have to stay consistent and things will be a lot better .
That has been the Drakes calling card. High motor, no fear.
Not perfect, but not from lack of effort.
All true. The thing with Drake is will he start making too many D mistakes again? I was thinking not a bad call up option at this point for him if things got ugly with health
That’s exactly what he’s been – a call-up option for when injuries hit.
Kudos for him for taking advantage of opportunity. I mean, he was probably behind both Hamblin and Pederson for that job prior to the season- those two got hurt and he might have vaulted himself ahead of them when they are healthy (although Hamblin may still have a chance).
Cags is a little monster.
He split his time almost evenly between two pairings, one with Stecher and the other with Kulak – the Nurse/Kulak pairing was MUCH more effective – to noone’s surprise.
Stecher is struggling a bit right now – got some yips out there.
It would be nice if they found a way to keep Kulak with Nurse full time (until a d-man is added).
Kulak is good for Emberson. Kulak is good for Nurse.
Holy hell he is playing well.
After a very rough start to the year (his numbers were abysmal after 11-12 games and he earned much of it), he’s playing very very good 2-way hockey and his numbers (on ice numbers) are a flip of early on the year.
Great job by the Janitor – he’s earning the praise!
Podz is outscoring Holloway at 5 on 5 and, recently, Holloway has worked his way down the lineup and has been on the 4th line the last two games. This is a repeat of history for Holloway who seems to have trouble finding sustain in the top 6.
No, I’m not saying Podz is better or anything like that but, well, he is producing more at 5 on 5 (yes, he plays worth Drai but has earned that spot and Drai has been very effusive in his praise), he is now on the PK, he is a better board player than Holloway and a much better defensive player.
Who’s Holloway??
Hollywood. Americanized his name after signing down south.
“Never” and “impact” seem like a stretch at this point. Holloway definitely started strong but has 2 pts in his last 10.
I’m most happy for McLeod, because he did not leave of his own volition, and he is continuing to improve year over year
Philp will help us forget MacLeod.
This. “never catch Dylan Holloway” I disagree with this considering Podz is only 2 pts off and quite similar at pts/60.
I agree Holloway might still have the better upside, but Podz is also trending to be a fairly equivalent NHL player (albeit a different skillset).
IMO he was about as perfect as a replacement as you could get given the circumstances in the summer.
Podz won me over when he dropped the gloves with Lauzon and tuned him in!
Podz does more things the right way. Leon never talked in such glowing terms when speaking of Holloway.
The strong defensive play so far is a big deal, and being able to help keep plays alive with top 6 players. Holloway had a good playoffs but couldn’t quite gain full trust as I saw it, even with all of the injury issues
If Kapanen can be similar I think they biggest payoff will be in playoffs. Both he and Pod from what I’ve read seem like Janmark to be able to step up in playoffs. The moment isn’t too big. More than just getting a few goals, overall play. It would be massive if they did. I think it depends on the player’s mental make up
Despite the great run, there were multiple players not playing their best hockey, at least every game, and I’m not talking about the ones with injuries that were too much to overcome. And that is very necessary to win a championship. They were so close, but that little extra I think would have put them over still
Podkhlozin does NOT have a reputation for stepping up in the playoffs.
Last season he only got into 2 out of 13 playoff games and in those games only played an average of 8:21.
That ranked dead last in the 15 forwards Vancouver employed in the post season.
He was credited with 2 SOG.
Kapanen hasn’t appeared in a playoff game since 2022 when he had 3 assists in 7 games. Overall he has appeared in 38 playoff games with 5 goals and 13 points.
We will see. I was thinking about more than the NHL
I was also surprised given Knob really did call Skinner and his play on the season out after last game. I think, after doing so, he was given his starting goalie a chance to respond and Stu sure did.
With revision, it was a great decision – now Stu goes on to this break in good spirits and with confidence as opposed to “stewing” on recent performances.
Expert bit of coaching imo
Felt like sticks were more active last night, better backchecking.
The Drai 2-on-1 goal and Bouch to McDavid were just incredible. They all think the game so quickly.
The way they performed in the O zone was a treat. Quick, direct, to the scoring areas, puck on the tape to open players, no hesitation. Also lots of beauty upper net snipes, many of those are scoring regardless of who’s in the nets. I’m not sure how much push back the New Yorkers provided, but that was fun
Even if Pod and Kap don’t score a ton reg season, I like having first round talent players that are fast, not too small, and take care of both ends of the rink, that can move up and down the group, for the playoffs. Another two Janmarks wouldn’t suck
Hopefully Hyman will be back after the break, maybe even Arvidsson. But Kapanen & Podz look to be nice bookends for Leon. Making Skinner & Arvidsson kind of redundant. I’m really looking forward for when they finally decide to let Philp play and also when Kane returns to the lineup.
541 goals vs. 104 goals – i don’t think Skinner and Arvidsson are being made redundant.
With that said, replacing Caggiula and Ryan in last night’s lineup with Hyman and Arvidsson – well, that is something.
Podz looks like a better fit with Leon than Skinner & with Arvidsson frequently on IR, Kapanen is a likely replacement . Who cares how many goals they scored in the past, it’s what have you done for us lately.
I care about how many goals they’ve scored in the past as it provides evidence of a reasonable expectancy.
100% Podz is fitting in with Leon right now – that surely doesn’t make Skinner and Arvidsson redundant, in my opinion.
This Ekholm / Kapanen exchange is very interesting. It really looks like Ek was upset with something Kapanen did but my suggestion is it may just have been Ek, being intense in the moment, praising Kapanen and saying something along the lines of “you keep making plays like that and you stick with this team and aren’t going anywhere….”
Just my pure speculation based on the moment and situation and what we k ow of Ek and how he carries himself.
My take was that the pass to Boosh was fantastic, but extremely high risk, through two Rags. If it is blocked, the breakaway is on between Ek and Boosh. Boosh’s pass to McDavid was similar, but lower risk as it was toward the net and hard and any deflection is likely up into the netting. A case of “nice play. Don’t do it again”.
Wuthering Heights? Last night was Cloudbursting. That second McDavid goal was Donald telling Kate to operate the machine. He still thrills and amazes.
The Mancini Fly past was epic. Like watching a regatta or the Sears parade. To the sound of Mancini’s Pink Panther. Quick did his best. Impressed by the “bend but not break” defense. We have to be like this. We are not, nor ever have been a solid defensive hockey team, whatever edition we are.
Hockey aside, if you want an interesting read, look up Kate Bush’s history and how Donald Sutherland gave her acting classes.
Before the season, I opined that one of the biggest factors this season will be the play of Darnell Nurse and if he can get back to prior high performance (or close thereto). It was far from a lock but given previous ability to play hard 1LW minutes with middling partners, this player has it in him to be a great 2nd pairing anchor.
A slow start to the season, along with the rest of the team and a revolving door of partners nightly and within each game but damn if he hasn’t settled in and showed how important he is to this team.
And did you see Stuart Skinner doing that goalie thing. Who knew?
If he can make that his game most times…..
LOL that was actually a quote from my daughter the Leafs fan during the game.
He just needs to be consistent.
one huge item that people seem to forget when dumping on Nurse is how many games he misses each year. Dude is durable and plays a ton of hard minutes. It’d be fantastic to see him get his game back
Dude was nearly decapitated and played 7 days later. Tough as nails and I think it becoming clear that he has been dealing with injuries quite a bit the last couple of years. Keep rolling Nurse!!
That was a treat!
Very much appreciate your patience and perspective, especially as so many others want to push the panic button.
I too thought Skinner had a strong game. Others are harrumphing about it, but he did what was asked, made important stops, consistently.
I also love how Podz is the team mascot. I always enjoy him at work. Looking forward to more.
ps. You’ve now got this Vancouver Island reader listening to Edmonton sports radio (egad!). Well done!