I’ve been talking about ‘high ceiling’ and ‘low floor’ Oilers for much of the season, and the last two games give us terrific examples. This team delivers the highest highs and lowest lows possible for a team that will be a strong Stanley Cup contender in the spring. The Oilers 2024-25 are like a duet between Barry White and Kate Bush: Wuthering Heights to Bottom End. Kate Bush was running up that hill last night at Rogers Place.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 6-3-1, 13 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 11-9-2, 24 points in 22 games
The Oilers November results have them on a 100-point trajectory and the team is within four points of first place. It’s not an ideal spot, the club hasn’t won a division championship since Prince’s Purple Rain was an oldie, but if the club can find a repeatable game the Pacific could land in Alberta in 2025.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner got the start, something of a surprise for me. I thought Kris Knoblauch would run with Calvin Pickard, who has been the better goaltender this season. Skinner responded with a strong game, especially impressive to see him deliver on all eight high-danger chances.
Evan Bouchard scored, some chaos too but it came on a night when the errant passes didn’t land in the net. There’s a thin line between ‘he’s a chaos blue’ and ‘he’s creative and not everything works’ and it usually has something to do with the goals for column.
Darnell Nurse sccored, he’s played well for some time and when alongside Brett Kulak the Oilers have an impressive second pair. We are through 75 minutes now at five-on-five and they are 3-1 goals and 66 percent expected goals. I think it’s time for the coaching staff to run with them. I also like Ty Emberson, he is 6-7 goals five-on-five over the last couple of weeks.
The Oilers received offense from a varied group of forwards last night. The Glimmer Twins were running hot, when they’re on and have room to wheel it’s breathtaking. Absolute hockey brilliance.
It was nice to see Vasily Podkolzin score his first goal as an Oilers player, he has six points in 22 games now but will never catch Dylan Holloway and his impact offensive season with the St. Louis Blues. Bruce McCurdy on the Lowdown this week said something like it must be painful for Canucks fans to watch Podkolzin thrive and I think that’s probably true. Vancouver rarely trades with Edmonton, and when they do, players tend to perform well here. Even Garry Lariviere outperformed Blair MacDonald for my money.
Connor Brown took a little trip to the second line and showed well, Nuge looked better to my eye and that’s a big damn deal. He’s been in a fog lately.
I thought the Adam Henrique line played well, and have decided that Mattias Janmark has earned the honor of honorary Finn. He may not like that label, but he’s as useful as all those fabulous Finnish players who have played in this city over many years. On another note, an acutal Finn (Kaperi Kapanen) delivered a point in his second game and doesn’t look out of place with the eton rifles.
Drake Caggiula is not going to lose his job (despite being sent down last night along with Josh Brown) if he keeps playing this rambunctious style. I wonder how long he’ll stay healthy, though. Game damn rooster.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ defensive deployment reveals surprises
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5942242/2024/11/24/edmonton-oilers-defensive-deployment-suprises/
On Sunday, St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong announced the team has relieved Drew Bannister as the team’s head coach, hiring Jim Montgomery as the team new’s bench boss.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/blues-fire-drew-bannister-hire-jim-montgomery-as-new-head-coach
@frank_seravalli
Drew Bannister departs St. Louis with one of the shortest runs ever for a full-time (non-interim) head coach in the NHL at just 22 games.
Tough business.
Recent history of short stints:
Mike Babcock CBJ 0 games 2023
Barry Melrose TBL 16 games 2008
Ron Rolston BUF 20 games 2013
Drew Bannister STL 22 games 2024
Geoff Ward CGY 24 games 2020-21
John MacLean NJD 37 games 2010
Lorne Molleken CHI 47 games 1999
Bryan Trottier NYR 54 games 2002-03
Wayne Cashman PHI 61 games 1997-98
Pierre McGuire HFD 67 games 1993-94
Good decision. Blues were floundering under Bannister. Binnington is a very streaky tender. Those guys can be coach killers
Bannister with Todd Nelson like bad luck. Injuries to Thomas (#1C), Leddy (#1LD), and Broberg (#2LD). Montgomery who has a history with Armstrong and Steen as an assistant to Berube before the Boston gig becomes available.
And probably a competitive environment for Montgomery.
what do folks think about Jiricek?
Right shot Broberg 2 years younger. Not a help now option it seems given PuckIQ usage and results. In that the Jackets aren’t a strong team, but he also isn’t yet helping them be a better team, he’s young, can’t stick in the bigs. Lots of potential
Would be an ideal Broberg replacement in the pipeline, but doesn’t sound like the Oil have the trade assets. Would take a player like Savoie and that’s a tough chip to send out with Jiricek bouncing back to the A atm. You’d probably want to see more up arrows to make sure this isn’t a Griffin Reinhart type trade.
Very good timing for a few days off. Injured players/sick players can hopefully get up to speed.
Also, the Oilers often struggle in December iirc so a lighter schedule going into the month is good news.
It was NOT an either/or between Podkolzin and Holloway. At Podkolzin’s salary, it COULD and SHOULD have been Podkolzin AND Holloway.
Instead Jeff Jackson went shopping in the washed up old man loser bin. That is what caused the loss of Holloway and Broberg.
And today’s hot take completely ignores the offer sheet situation that if matched would have led to the inevitable “Broberg is injury prone and Holloway is too streaky to justify the money.” No true Scotsman can deny this.
Holloway also lost an arm fighting the english
I disagree sort of. They lost Holloway and Broberg because they ground them down to a minimum salary expecting to keep them and sign the old men as well. They didn’t expect an offer sheet for either let alone both. They do rarely happen. That was a major miscalculation by a rookie gm. Just my opinion
My point is that the presence or absence of Holloway in no way impacted the ability for the Oilers to acquire Podkolzin at his price point in AAV.
The presence of Holloway might have lowered the price that Bowman might have had to pay in assets, since the trade would not have been under duress.
True
Broberg wanted out it wasn’t because of anything else, stop lying.
Holloway wanted more money and found it, nothing to do with where Jackson was or wasn’t shopping. I applaud management for not caving in and overpaying while finding a equal if not better solution for cheaper.
Podkolzin is a capable replacement for Holloway. The funny thing is Kulak is a more than capable replacement for Broberg .
The Oilers could have had all four and been a much deeper contending team.
Holloway and Broberg were significant contributors in the playoffs last year.
I have NEVER ever suggested trading Kulak. I have always been for keeping Kulak.
I have ridiculed the notion that one cannot play LS defensemen on the right side when they are better than the RS defensemen available.
Entertaining game last night, as always when the good guys win and score a bucket of goals.
Very good game from a lot of players, but a shout out to Skinner for bouncing back and to Nurse for his 1st game back from a big hit.
The PK continues to rock it! Heck of a turn around.
Interesting problem of what will happen when Hyman, Arvidsson and Kane are back.
Caggiula and Ryan are 2 of the obvious candidates to drop. I’d have a hard time taking others off the team, even Perry.
(Source: Moneypuck)
In terms of expected goals 5×5/60, McDavid and Hyman are 1st and 5th in the league.
Other interesting notes are that Jeff Skinner is 17th, Henrique is 52nd while Draisaitl is 158th (although I might expect that for a sharp shooter).
3 other Oilers in the top 200 are Viktor 123, Vasily 136, RNH 183rd
Perhaps suggests more patience with some of the underperforming players this year
Not a bad situation. Infinitely preferable to hoping the junior call up catches fire and then a panic trade.
Very interested to see what the coaches lines are going to look like when RW1 and RW2 return to action.
Imagine a boat of Janmarks hitting your shores to raid your village.
are they there for the annual litter clean up?
That would be a boat of Henrique’s
This Oiler team can get younger and faster in a flash.
I like,
Skinner/McDavid/Kapanen
Podkolzin/Draisaitl/Arvidsson
Janmark/Hopkins/Hyman
Brown/Henrique/Perry
I’d try to play the top 2 lines and bottom 2 lines about the same 5×5 as much as possible.
I see what you’re trying to do by spreading the skill around, but 4th lines simply don’t get that much 5×5 time. This may work if you throw out the glimmer twins with Hyman as a “5th line.”
Additional problems are Skinner against 1st line composition and putting Henrique down to 4th line when he’s been playing better.
I would prefer:
RNH/McDavid/Hyman
Podkolzin/Draisaitl/Arvidsson
Skinner/Henrique/Janmark
Brown/Philp-Ryan/Perry-Kapanen
When Kane is back, he is a complete wild card. If he can return to top 6 winger then they’ll have great problems (and may benefit from a trade from strength)
The team will eventually be much better with Philp.
Thoughts I was not expecting to have this morning: imaging the pure joy and wonder of a Barry White / Kate Bush collaboration!
”Mmm, yes, baby.”
I’m BJ MacDonald!
-Road hockey warriors, circa 1978
Cowboy Flett was also a favourite.
Prospectmas!
A surprisingly busy Sunday with fully half of the NAmateurs in activity.
It’s been a long damn time since both O’Reilly and Nicholl tallied in a game, but they did it yesternight as London rolled to its 14th straight win. They conclude a 3-in-3 weekend vs. the House of Stone and the Three Score & Sevens (a forgotten psychedelic folk group from the Summer of Love).
The Colts of Barrie toil too, with Wakely scoring the GWG and earning 1st star anoche, and Akey earning an aPPle.
The Vermonters complete the sched.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ noon
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 1 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 2 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Campsie time.
Who would have thought that this mythical partner for Nurse was sitting next to him the whole time.
I would like a Stetcher upgrade but that should be a lot easier to do than finding a 2Rhd this season
Agreed, crazy. Let’s hope that Kulak can keep up this level of play on the end pairing through an entire season and SC run.
Tidbit from Kurt Leavins:
Nurse scored a big goal on his return Saturday, and it was short-handed. He is now tied for first amongst active defencemen in the NHL with six short-handed goals
Very cool note!
Caggiula is a little monster. He is the only guy who hits a lot. Podkolzin does some , but every shift Drake is giving it his all.
So far in 2 games Kapanen his been a pleasant surprise. He definitely has some speed which this team can use. Like to see him involved in some pk action as he was very good at one point doing that.
Nurse is playing great and good on him. That pairing was great last night.
The Henrique line probably had the best night of the year.
Nice to get a week off to heal up and give some rest to the ancient ones in Perry and Ryan.
But a great win after that debacle on Thursday. They just have to stay consistent and things will be a lot better .
That has been the Drakes calling card. High motor, no fear.
Not perfect, but not from lack of effort.
All true. The thing with Drake is will he start making too many D mistakes again? I was thinking not a bad call up option at this point for him if things got ugly with health
Cags is a little monster.
Holy hell he is playing well.
After a very rough start to the year (his numbers were abysmal after 11-12 games and he earned much of it), he’s playing very very good 2-way hockey and his numbers (on ice numbers) are a flip of early on the year.
Great job by the Janitor – he’s earning the praise!
Podz is outscoring Holloway at 5 on 5 and, recently, Holloway has worked his way down the lineup and has been on the 4th line the last two games. This is a repeat of history for Holloway who seems to have trouble finding sustain in the top 6.
No, I’m not saying Podz is better or anything like that but, well, he is producing more at 5 on 5 (yes, he plays worth Drai but has earned that spot and Drai has been very effusive in his praise), he is now on the PK, he is a better board player than Holloway and a much better defensive player.
Who’s Holloway??
Hollywood. Americanized his name after signing down south.
“Never” and “impact” seem like a stretch at this point. Holloway definitely started strong but has 2 pts in his last 10.
I’m most happy for McLeod, because he did not leave of his own volition, and he is continuing to improve year over year
This. “never catch Dylan Holloway” I disagree with this considering Podz is only 2 pts off and quite similar at pts/60.
I agree Holloway might still have the better upside, but Podz is also trending to be a fairly equivalent NHL player (albeit a different skillset).
IMO he was about as perfect as a replacement as you could get given the circumstances in the summer.
Podz won me over when he dropped the gloves with Lauzon and tuned him in!
Holloway is not on the 4th line.
The 4th line in St. Louis is Toropchenko Fatsa/Sundqvist and Walker. It is a high end defensively reliable 4th line.
Holloway was between Bolduc (a rookie) and Texier (worst plus/minus forward on the Blues this year) on a third line and that line was sat in favor of the 4th line when the Blues were trying to hold the lead in onegame.
Holloway was back to 15 minutes of clean hockey with 4 shots on right wing on the third line with Faksa and Joseph last night.
Stop making things up.
Holloway is safely and clearly in the top nine in St. Louis.
His audition at center ended quickly and he was on ice for 12 and 9 mins the 2 games before.
Now there’s a new coach, so gotta rebuild all the trust up.
The Blues have been trying to figure out who to play at centre all season.
They have two quality 4th line centres in Faksa and Sundqvist. A good all-around #1 centre in Thomas. An aging Brayden Schenn who should really be playing 3rd line centre, but is forced to play 2nd line centre, because the Buchnevich experiment at centre failed and Devorsky is playing his draft plus two nineteen year old season as a rookie in the AHL.
Holloway has been moved everywhere in the top three lines this season. He has outplayed Texier, and got Kapanen waived, and out produced Bolduc. Only three forwards on the Blues have a positive plus/minus…all at plus two…Kyrou, Holloway, and Bolduc. And Broberg is the only other Blue with a positive plus/minus at plus 6.
So, you are saying that Holloway’s ice time decreased in a game because they were trying to hold on to a lead and the 4th line played more?
I would note that a few games ago, Holloway played that least amount on the team including the least at 5 on 5 in a game they lost 4-2.
So, it seems he gets his ice cut when the team is chasing the game and when the team is protecting a lead.
The fact that Holloway is playing among the lowest of all forwards in recent games (until the one game against the Isles) is not made up.
The fact that he has, once again, been given many opportunities in his team’s top 6 and worked his way down the lineup is not made up.
One can say that he’s “safely and clearly” in the top 9 but its more accurate to say that he’s been in the bottom six recently – sometimes with ice time below 9 minutes at 5 on 5.
I didn’t want to rip on the guy but, well, narratives get pulled both ways, right?
The 12 minutes game, he was still the #8 forward in ice time…which was 3rd line minutes.
The 9 minute game he was playing with a rookie (Bolduc) and Texier (the worst Blues forward in plus minus) on a line which started as the 3rd line but the deemed more defensively reliable 4th line got more time as the Blues were trying to hold the lead, not because Holloway has been weak defensively, but because who he was playing with that game were less reliable defensively.
The strong defensive play so far is a big deal, and being able to help keep plays alive with top 6 players. Holloway had a good playoffs but couldn’t quite gain full trust as I saw it, even with all of the injury issues
If Kapanen can be similar I think they biggest payoff will be in playoffs. Both he and Pod from what I’ve read seem like Janmark to be able to step up in playoffs. The moment isn’t too big. More than just getting a few goals, overall play. It would be massive if they did. I think it depends on the player’s mental make up
Despite the great run, there were multiple players not playing their best hockey, at least every game, and I’m not talking about the ones with injuries that were too much to overcome. And that is very necessary to win a championship. They were so close, but that little extra I think would have put them over still
I was also surprised given Knob really did call Skinner and his play on the season out after last game. I think, after doing so, he was given his starting goalie a chance to respond and Stu sure did.
With revision, it was a great decision – now Stu goes on to this break in good spirits and with confidence as opposed to “stewing” on recent performances.
Expert bit of coaching imo
Felt like sticks were more active last night, better backchecking.
The Drai 2-on-1 goal and Bouch to McDavid were just incredible. They all think the game so quickly.
The way they performed in the O zone was a treat. Quick, direct, to the scoring areas, puck on the tape to open players, no hesitation. Also lots of beauty upper net snipes, many of those are scoring regardless of who’s in the nets. I’m not sure how much push back the New Yorkers provided, but that was fun
Even if Pod and Kap don’t score a ton reg season, I like having first round talent players that are fast, not too small, and take care of both ends of the rink, that can move up and down the group, for the playoffs. Another two Janmarks wouldn’t suck
Hopefully Hyman will be back after the break, maybe even Arvidsson. But Kapanen & Podz look to be nice bookends for Leon. Making Skinner & Arvidsson kind of redundant. I’m really looking forward for when they finally decide to let Philp play and also when Kane returns to the lineup.
This Ekholm / Kapanen exchange is very interesting. It really looks like Ek was upset with something Kapanen did but my suggestion is it may just have been Ek, being intense in the moment, praising Kapanen and saying something along the lines of “you keep making plays like that and you stick with this team and aren’t going anywhere….”
Just my pure speculation based on the moment and situation and what we k ow of Ek and how he carries himself.
My take was that the pass to Boosh was fantastic, but extremely high risk, through two Rags. If it is blocked, the breakaway is on between Ek and Boosh. Boosh’s pass to McDavid was similar, but lower risk as it was toward the net and hard and any deflection is likely up into the netting. A case of “nice play. Don’t do it again”.
Wuthering Heights? Last night was Cloudbursting. That second McDavid goal was Donald telling Kate to operate the machine. He still thrills and amazes.
The Mancini Fly past was epic. Like watching a regatta or the Sears parade. To the sound of Mancini’s Pink Panther. Quick did his best. Impressed by the “bend but not break” defense. We have to be like this. We are not, nor ever have been a solid defensive hockey team, whatever edition we are.
Hockey aside, if you want an interesting read, look up Kate Bush’s history and how Donald Sutherland gave her acting classes.
Before the season, I opined that one of the biggest factors this season will be the play of Darnell Nurse and if he can get back to prior high performance (or close thereto). It was far from a lock but given previous ability to play hard 1LW minutes with middling partners, this player has it in him to be a great 2nd pairing anchor.
A slow start to the season, along with the rest of the team and a revolving door of partners nightly and within each game but damn if he hasn’t settled in and showed how important he is to this team.
And did you see Stuart Skinner doing that goalie thing. Who knew?
If he can make that his game most times…..
LOL that was actually a quote from my daughter the Leafs fan during the game.
He just needs to be consistent.
one huge item that people seem to forget when dumping on Nurse is how many games he misses each year. Dude is durable and plays a ton of hard minutes. It’d be fantastic to see him get his game back
Dude was nearly decapitated and played 7 days later. Tough as nails and I think it becoming clear that he has been dealing with injuries quite a bit the last couple of years. Keep rolling Nurse!!
That was a treat!
Very much appreciate your patience and perspective, especially as so many others want to push the panic button.
I too thought Skinner had a strong game. Others are harrumphing about it, but he did what was asked, made important stops, consistently.
I also love how Podz is the team mascot. I always enjoy him at work. Looking forward to more.
ps. You’ve now got this Vancouver Island reader listening to Edmonton sports radio (egad!). Well done!