There’s lots of talk about Kris Knoblauch recently, fans upset at various deployments and perceived missteps. It happens all the time, second-guessing coaches is a popular sport among Oilers fans. It doesn’t have the appeal of questioning the sanity of the general manager, but fans like to get in there and work over the coach when things are askew.
The Athletic article today is about Vasily Podkolzin and his outer marker with the Edmonton Oilers. It is here.
A conversation
Why isn’t he playing Jeff Skinner with one of the glimmer twins? This year, Knoblauch is trying (among other things) to reduce SA-60 and GA-60 plus HDSC-60 at five-on-five. Through 22 games, the team sits at 25.7SA, 2.5GA, 9.2 HDSC-A, compared to 26.8SA, 2.3GA and 10.1 HDSC-A last season. The high-danger chances are down, but the GA results are a little worse so far. The coach is trying to reduce mistakes, and Skinner has been ‘also in photo’ or worse (the dreaded ‘not in photo, nor in the area code’ has also been a result) and Knoblauch prefers other options.
The Oilers aren’t scoring! Play Skinner! Knoblauch isn’t a severe coach in fading minutes, nor in rewarding them. Craig MacTavish was the most extreme in this regard, I recall he didn’t trust Jani Rita so played a defenseman as a forward on his line to make sure there were no goals, and MacT also played Toby Petersen on the power play. The Skinner fade is less eyebrow raising.
So you wouldn’t play Skinner? Personally, I’d play the hell out of him, I’d use the power-play to get him going. Skinner is a proven scorer, the Oilers need him.
So, why are you defending Knoblauch? Because I also believe the Oilers have to tighten up in areas like HDSC-A. It’s vital. The team needs to be on the offensive more often, and the roster has the talent to do it. I think Knoblauch is trying to find things that work with this group, but the truth is he’s just going to have to wait until everyone adjusts to the new players, and everyone is healthy. Until then, it’s muddle through.
Was it a mistake to lose Holloway and Broberg? Long term, I think it was good for the organization.
Please let us know when you’re smoking the drapes. It helps the reader. Edmonton management has been fiddling with prospects and their progress for a long time and it’s silly. Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod were the examples before Broberg and Holloway, so hopefully this bite in the ass means management will treat their own prospects with more respect. That’s the hope.
You were the one saying Broberg would be great! No, I said play the man and let him tell us what he is. Oilers didn’t do it with either man, and now we’ll see in St. Louis. The entry deal isn’t meant for slow-playing talent to the NHL, it’s meant for developing that talent and bringing it along at pace. Edmonton handled it poorly. I hope the club learns from the mistake.
The goaltending is the issue. I can’t agree. Stuart Skinner started slowly and has been inconsistent, but took the team to Game 7 of the SCF a year ago. Knoblauch mentioned the other day that the team needs to be better at not allowing chances from high-danger areas. The goalie should be able to assume coverage in specific spots, but the team has a tendency to wander at times. Need to cut that out.
Getting a goalie is the priority! And a good one! Okay, I can get behind a goalie upgrade, let’s check in on options. Among stoppers who have played 500+ minutes at five-on-five, former Oilers Cam Talbot and Anthony Stolarz lead the way. The key to their success? Not playing for the Oilers.
You’re full asshat today! Make sure to criticize Darnell Nurse today. In November (eight games), he is 4-2 goals and 54 percent expected goals at five-on-five. I’m sure you’ll find something, though.
Back to Knoblauch. When do they fire him? It would be unwise to fire Knoblauch. Silly idea. The only reason Bowman would fire him would be to hire Joel Quenneville and that isn’t a good enough reason. Knoblauch, like Skinner, guided this team to G7 of the SCF. The club is within shouting distance of first place in the Pacific. Stay the course.
What would you add? I’m fine with the goaltending, like the top four blue when Ekholm-Bouchard and Nurse-Kulak are running together, and believe the new forwards (Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson) and the hurt forwards (Zach Hyman, Evander Kane) have something to give. So, I would add a LH defenseman, and if he can play either side that works even better. I’d stay the course otherwise, keeping my powder dry until the deadline.
At noon today on the Lowdown, we’ll talk Oilers and the Pacific Division race. We’ll also talk about the massive free-agent signing of LHP Blake Snell by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join us, and Declan Krueger will have Dunkin’ with Declan talking NBA. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: What’s Edmonton Oilers winger Vasily Podkolzin’s ceiling?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5948634/2024/11/27/oilers-vasily-podkolzin-stats/
Wonder if Bowman is making a call about Marchand being available.
LT, I’m not sure why you’ve taken to comments on a nearly daily basis now that troll the fanbase.
For one, I don’t know that broad stereotyping of this nature is accurate.
Two, it’s an odd development for a person who is deservedly celebrated in Oiler fandom for reinforcing community and not division.
I fully acknowledge that trolling is an effective tactic for increasing engagement. Riling the blood does tend to get people to post more.
But you as well as anyone know that all Oiler fans do not think alike and painting with a broad brush does not reflect the diversity of thoughts and opinions on this team even for players as polarizing as Nurse and Skinner.
As with the infamous photo, Lowetide and balance are two words I like to associate with each other. While I applaud your wont to defend certain players at all costs, it would be a shame if that came at the cost of balance being sacrificed.
Anthony Stolarz has been impressive for the Leafs. The difference is he’s actually been allowed to get some minutes in Toronto. Now Woll is back from injury, I guess he’s going to be the # 1. But it sure must be nice to have Stolarz to fall back on. If he was in Edmonton, he would be the #1. So what, if Stu Skinner took them to game seven of the SCF. Stolarz would be eating his lunch.
I remember him and Mika were the tallest tandem in history. He only played a handful of games and l believe he had injury problems. He was never given a real chance which has me thinking why did they trade him for Talbot. I guess he was never in their plans and the acquisition happened just to dump Talbot.
I don’t get the chatter about getting a LHD who can play the right side. They have that right now in Kulak, plus Nurse and Ekholm on the left side. The right side has Bouch, and a committee of Emberson (who is coming along, but that’s it right now), Stetcher, and Dermott.
Targeting a LHD makes zero sense to me. Go get a righty that can bump Kulak down to third pair to shelter Emberson.
The plan in the playoffs cannot be to dress 5 lefties and Bouchard, so don’t paint yourself into that corner.
In one word. DEPTH.
Nurse & Kulak form a solid 2nd pair. A LHD to play with Emberson would be the cat’s ass, if he can also play on his off side that’s bonus.
Oilers can acquire a LHD better or equal to Kulak for much less then it will cost for a top 4 RHD.
I know that injuries to Pederson ,Hamblin, and Jarventie factor into this, but at what point do we get concerned about the lack of scoring that Chaulk is getting out of the Bako bunch? They have a total of 5 games in which they scored more than 2 goals for so far this season. This team needs to foster an environment where the team’s prospects can cultivate their offense at the pro level and I haven’t really seen it.
Lack of talent may be an issue.
When your leading scorer in the AHL is a soon to be 32 year old and is 44th in league scoring and your second leading scorer who is the organization’s top prospect is tied for 106th, its not surprising the team is struggling.
To my eye, the high danger chances are much less of a problem than allowing uncontested shots. These don’t line up as some of these come out of the high danger areas, and often are on a break with speed or a late trailer not picked up. I’d prefer coach Knoblauch to go back to what he did last year with defensive zone assignments and more of a focus responsibility, we’re playing too much of a boost advanced metrics game, and much of our defensive shortcomings are not showing up on these metrics. Maybe since the offense is well below last year’s output he’s pushing this at the expense of that defensive responsibility and think pushing the metrics would be enough. But we have a shaky goalie at the back with what seems like real confidence issues and he needs mire help back there it’s not enough to “deny entry” and do better in high danger areas.
So they need to add what they threw away during the summer?
#PissingInTheWind
Broberg left on his own accord. He didn’t want to be in Edmonton even when he was finally going to find his place on the roster.
I like Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse-Kulak. Losing Broberg was not enjoyable, but that’s yesterday’s papers. Time to move on, find a suitable partner for Emberson.
Totally agree. Old news. Just get someone who has some physical capabilities and experience. We are in win now mode. Provorov, please
I still haven’t gotten over the Dave Semenko trade. I know it had to be done and Sather allowed Dave to make some bucks before hanging up the skates and gloves. I do miss this man he was heart and soul a Edmontonian.
Boreberg us some more with your one little thought.
They were doing just fine with developing Broberg until they weren’t.
He was given some NHL opportunities but real development time in the AHL and was coming along – to the place where he was playing nightly on a pairing with Bouchard early in 2023. About 15 games of apx 14 minutes per night and he was proving to be a legit NHL every day 3rd pairing d-man and was starting to show some of that puck moving/transition skill.
Then, of course, Vinny is called up for the PK and Ekholm is acquired and the development cratered. Broberg didn’t get another game in a 6D set-up until the garbage times games at the end of this past season (except game 1 of 2023/24 when Ekholm was hurt).
I don’t have any issues with how they developed Holloway (except Woody was a bit too quick to move him down the lineup after a mistake). He got plenty of chances in the top 6 and was never able to stick there that long – that continues in St. Louis.
They did so well handling him he was an easy OS target. You can’t treat people this way and do business like it’s normal. If Bouchard negotiations get ugly, we can trace it back to his early handling. How to treat people is a thing.
Everyone is pegging Bouchard for 10mil, no one was pegging Broberg for near 5. Broberg could not beat out the veterans ahead of him who were out performing him. If they would of traded Kulak to please Broberg before he was ready Oilers don’t make the finals last year.
They allowed him to stay in Sweden when he wanted, they gave him 1D development on their farm team when he came over.
He signed for nearly 5 mil knowing a cap strained team isn’t matching it.
It takes two to tango and Broberg has been a 1 fella Mariah Carey show since the moment he first didn’t get what he wanted.
When you have prospects who are ready you need to play them to find out what their realistic outcomes are. Play the high ceiling prospect ahead of the low ceiling player and live with the growing pains. While people like to say the NHL is not a development league, it really still is. Players don’t break into the league fully formed as a rule.
The third pair and/or fourth line are places to break players into the league. Use them and live with the growing pains. The marginal NHL’ers playing those position make mistakes too.
They gave him 1D minutes, assignments, and tasks on their farm team as he needed to get acclimated with the North American rinks and game.
No coach is playing him ahead of the performing veterans on a cup or bust team when he was clearly struggling with the pace and physical play.
He wasn’t better then Ekholm, Nurse, or Kulak. The weren’t moving out Ceci until they absolutely had to, Vinny came in and took the developmental spot on the 3rd pairing due to being able to handle the aspects of the game Broberg was not showing he could handle at the time.
Players don’t break into the league fully formed, it’s also not a good thing to hand them a spot when they’re not beating out those ahead of them. This is a professional sport, you’re not walking into the locker room and convincing them it best to play someone that will weaken their chances at winning. They want to win at all times.
Folks are too use to the decade of darkness where every draft pick automatically gets a roster spot just because. He was given multiple seasons to out perform and make it impossible for whoever is coach to take him out. He never did. I applaud him for coming in fresh during the playoffs and playing well, that player never showed himself at all before that. Maybe the 1D time on the farm team was important and a factor in his playoff performance.
Which player are you referring to?
With Broberg, as I said, they were doing well, until they weren’t, and then specified where it fell apart and the terrible deployment thereafter.
I’m not sure what was wrong with Holloway’s development path – he was given all the opportunities to make the team out of camp and even started seasons in the top 6, was given additional opportunities in the top 6, etc., etc.
I understand why Broberg wanted over due to development reasons but I don’t think Holloway had the same issues and I don’t think he had any plans on going anywhere until a massive contract was offered to him.
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On Bouchard, none of us liked what happened during the Covid year where he spent alot of the time watching, not playing. Lets not forget, they spoke to Bouch and his agent about that ahead of time. That was the season with Covid-restrictions and, given the border issues and quarantines and all that, the Oilers really didn’t have access to players in Bako. They spoke to Bouch and gave him the choice of going to the AHL and playing (but not really being a call-up option due to logistics) or spending quite a bit of time on the taxi-squad given a very NHL established set of RD ahead of him. No injures was wild.
Prospectness!
As the temperature has dropped in November, so has Day’s performance. After fashioning sparkling October numbers of 1.87 GAA and 93.4 SV% (9 GP), post-Halloween has seen him put up a ghastly 4.54 GAA and 84.1 SV% (9 GP).
Injuries and a suspension have limited Cap’n Clattenburg to just 14 of Flint’s 23 GP. He has 4+5 thus far.
They and the rest of the Birds of Fire take to the ice at 5 p.m. Lomond time.
Finally a game at the time close to where I work! (I’m 30 minutes outside of Lomond currently)
Loch Lomond?
Say hi to Nessie!
Loch or Slough Lomond, yes. Nessie hissed back at my wave (that is one large, feathered sea monster).
Granted he was a lesser prospect than Bro and DH, but the way the Oilers treated Lavoie suggests management hasn’t learned that lesson. We’ll see if things are different going forward
We have a new Sheriff in town and looking at the Chicago model vs Detroit model one is draft, develop and play. The other is pay or play older vets as well as kicking the can down the road on contracts. I didn’t like the Bowman hire but what he’s done so far is a thumbs up from me. The losing of Broberg&Holloway to Hollands buddy is not on Bowman. I do think he’ll shore up the inconsistent Goaltending and he’ll find a top 4 D-man before the real season begins.
Lavoie is in a different organization completely stinking up the place.
11gp 1g 1a -9
If I’m not mistaken, the Oilers are not giving up a ton of scoring chances and high danger chances vis-a-vis the rest of the league and this holds true for publicly available date (i.e. NST, etc.) as well as the snippets of data we get from non-publicly available sites.
And they are improved in HDSC-A season over season, as is mentioned above.
Great article LT.
Would you have any interest in Jiricek? If yes, what would you ship to the Jackets?
Yes, not certain what the return would be but most assets would be on the table past Savoie and a first. I like his future, not sure he’s 2RH defense yet.
Don’t know much about Jiricek, but if he looks like a potential top 4 dman on the right side, why wouldn’t you include Savoie or the 26 1st?
Do we really think either of them has more value than that?
Looks can be deceiving.
What’s the narrative on Jiricek? He obviously isn’t going to live up to his high draft pick billing so why is he worth a Savoie or a 1st rounder? Maybe a swap for a similarly underachieving prospect.
I think the knock on him is that he is a poor skater. The plus is that he is young, was once highly rated but I’m not sure that he’s a lock as a top 4 D, and certainly not right now.
I know Rob Brown keeps saying things like “Skinner creates his own offence” but that is not the verbal from those that cover the Sabres.
The verbal this off-season is that Skinner is a complimentary winger that is reliant on his center. When he is with a high skill offensive center, he produces, when he isn’t, he doesn’t.
I understand that playing responsible and “making plays in the defensive zone” is important but its not like many others in the top 6 are locked down in that regard – neither Hyman nor Arvidson are, for example.
Agreed. Also, (I have not checked the numbers) I think Skinner’s defensive play has deteriorated as he has moved down the lineup.
I was wrong. Skinner is 0-3 with Drai and 1-6 with McD although the xGF are much higher.
Coaches have their favorites, or play the game they want them to play, which if you squint I believe is LT’s message today among others.
In my opinion, Knoblauch likes the forecheck and cycle game. It’s why Hyman, and new comers Arvidson and Podkolzin are getting the push. It creates time and space for the centers. Henrique, although his slow start to the season, gets to the puck deep in enemy territory.
Skinner, although has had moments of sound forechecking, needs to do it consistently for the coach to trust him more. So in the meantime, message sent… compliment the heck out of the bottom six.
My observations of Skinner are that he is a volume shooter from all angles. This often results in a ‘one and done’ chance, and the puck changes possession/rims the boards from a poor shot choice. He is then completely out of position to support the back check.
This doesn’t suit the play of Drais or McD who prefer to find the perfect option. Kane has similar tendencies. He has worked from time to time on the top two lines, but more because he creates space.
Maybe the early season struggle broke the courage of the coaches’ conviction that Skinner needed to play with strong centers, and they retreated into the “what worked before” mentality. I know that it is getting late early for the team, but I wish they would run him on top lines for an extended period, including PP as LT said, to see what they have. Otherwise trade him/demote him if he is not going to be an offensive contributor. He takes up a valuable spot when he is in the bottom 6 which should go to Philp.
Don’t disagree with alot of this but do want to note that Philp is struggling quite a bit at the AHL level right now – he’s been non-impactful the last two games and most of the last 10 (with a couple good games thrown in).
It appears to me that Podkolzin has taken J Skinners spot in the top six because of his defensive work and all-around hard work all over the ice. They have goal scorers in the top six but not enough worker bees, which Podz provides. They don’t have enough goalscoring in the bottom six and while Skinner is learning about responsible play just maybe he can score some goals.
Kapanen is another guy who might surprise some people around here. Arvidsson may very well be joining Skinner in the bottom six, if he ever returns from injury.
Fair enough but, last game had Kapanen and Connor Brown in the top 6.