Lightning at Oilers, G28 2024-25

The Edmonton Oilers-Tampa Bay Lightning was vague in the beginning, became prominent in December of 1997 (Roman Hamrlik trade) but the connection between the two clubs is as distant as the travel miles between the two cities. Oh sure, there’s a lopsided loss here and there, and who can forget the Sam Gagner for Edward Purcell deal, but the Oilers-Lightning lore just isn’t there in the same way as it is with (say) the Florida Panthers or Carolina Hurricanes. Perhaps someday these two teams will meet in the Final, and then we’ll have our lore.

The Athletic article today is about Darnell Nurse and his impressive season. It’s also about a wicked platoon that is unusual and effective. Article is here.

HAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

• On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
• On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
• December results: 2-1-0
• Oilers in 2024-25: 15-10-2, 32 points in 27 games

This year’s Lightning have a similar record to the Oilers but have a +22 goal share (Edmonton is +3). Both teams have had some wobble in net (.893 to .887 SP advantage for the visitors). Lightning own a 57 percent goal share in all situations, driven by an impressive 3.88 goals-60. I have tonight as a loss, and believe that was a reasonable estimate at the start of the month. Edmonton is on a nice roll, though. We’ll see

LINES TONIGHT

This is based on last game, I’m listing five-on-five points-60 for each player.

Nuge (0.99)-McDavid (2.85)-Hyman (1.28). There is plenty of room to grow for each winger, Hyman has been on fire since returning (three goals in two games). Nuge is 2-3-5 in his last five and 97 is running hot (1-5-6 in his last two games). A goal from this line tonight wouldn’t be a surprise.

Podkolzin (1.47)-Draisaitl (2.29)-Kapanen (1.32). The big train is rolling no matter who lines up on his wing, to the tune of a 50 percent goal share away from McDavid (the captain is at 44 percent without Leon). I wrote about Draisaitl recently, he is having a dynamite season. The wingers are odds and roll ends who are fighting to hang on at this level, and damned if Podkolzin has the look of a man who might do it. Kasperi Kapanen is less certain to do it, but does come in handy these days.

Skinner (1.58)-Henrique (1.1)-Janmark (1.71). This line has some conflicting totals re: chem (2-1 goals in 58 minutes, expected goals 46 percent) but I like Skinner with a veteran center. I asked Rachel Doerrie on the Lowdown yesterday about my wish for 20 games of Skinner-McDavid, and she agreed that the ideal deployment of the skill winger is higher on the depth chart. Edmonton needs his brilliance on full display. This isn’t ideal, but it isn’t the outhouse either. Mattias Janmark feels like a guy Glen Sather slipped through the space-time continuum from 1988 because he knew the Oilers needed him.

Brown (1.26)-Ryan (0.53)-Perry (0.89) is pure odds and sods and could be from the Todd McLellen era of “I’ll dress them but that doesn’t mean I’ll play them” fourth lines. They’re all handy but you’d like a little more speed in the middle, and Noah Philp is just a motion away.

DEFENSIVE PAIRS (GOAL SHARE FIVE-ON-FIVE WITH TOI-PER-GAME)

• Ekholm-Bouchard 52 percent in 16:43 per game
• Nurse-Stecher 50 percent in 9:34 per game
• Kulak-Emberson 44 percent in 9:22 per game
• Nurse-Kulak 75 percent in 4:56 per game
• Kulak-Stecher 50 percent in 2:31 per game
• Stecher-Emberson 50 percent in 1:59 per game

I’m constantly trying to figure out a way to run Nurse-Kulak because look at the damn numbers! I would like to see far more than (average) five minutes a game from the duo. The Kulak-Emberson-Sanford-Townsend band’s eyes have a mist from the smoke of a distant fire. This damn coaching staff is witches I swear! What a platoon Nurse-Kulak-Stecher have become!! After 20 years of recommending your kid NOT get drafted by the Oilers, I’m thinking maybe this is a good time for any defenseman in the system (come on, Max Wanner!).

Since October 15, Stuart Skinner’s five-on-five save percentage is .916 and Calvin Pickard’s is .910. I know there are superior goalies out there, but chasing save percentage is a dangerous game, and potentially harmful when you have zero cap room, not much in the way of assets, and have invested 35 playoff games in your young starter. Just my opinion mind, but I will remind you that I was on the Stuart Skinner train when he was wobbly and I remain there. Goalies are inconsistent, nature of the beast. Don’t go chasing waterfalls, you’ll sure as hell end up trading Devan Dubnyk for Matt Hendricks.

The Lowdown hits at noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic for the latest Oilers news and a convo about Davo and his continued brilliance. Declan Krueger will have Declanations today it’s “Hi my name is” and it’s a hoot and half a blowfish. Donovan Paulson is also scheduled to appear, he has a brilliant baseball mind and I will get him to tell the righteous truth about the Toronto Blue Jays. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.