The Edmonton Oilers did that thing again. You know the thing: Play well, get a lead, lose the plot, scramble back and (often) hold on for a win in regulation or overtime. The Florida Panthers played a physical game, got some aid from the stripes, and emerged victorious in a game the Oilers should have won. Is there anything we can learn from last night?
The Athletic article today is about balance. Edmonton is close. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 5-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 18-11-2, 38 points in 31 games
In the grand scheme of things, this game should not matter much. The odds of these two teams meeting in the final again is low, and I’m fairly certain Kris Knoblauch would deploy his troops differently in a postseason game. Still, you want your favorite team to pass the test against substantial opponents, and the Oilers two losses this month are a reminder that there is work to do for management, coaches and players.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner had a tough game, even allowing for several poor decisions and lack of execution by the skaters. I’m of the opinion that this team can win the Stanley Cup with Skinner, but Stan Bowman may have a different opinion. At this point, if the organization made a move to replace Skinner, would you be surprised? I would not. I’m still on Team Skinner, hope the Oilers don’t cost themselves another pile of assets to acquire another goalie, but I can see it happening.
The gap between Nurse-Kulak and Nurse-Stecher was substantial on the evening, and I think it points out the fact Edmonton will need a bigger No. 2 RH defenseman come playoff time. I know some of you are angry about the refs, and I get it that was a badly officiated game. However, there were plenty of defensive miscues on the night.
I believe the team should live with the errors of Bouchard, Ekholm, Nurse and Kulak and consider upgrading the fourth member of the top two pairings. I’m also wondering, just a little, about Ekholm’s ability to play these big minutes during the season then having enough left for the playoffs. No idea if there’s a solution, just pointing it out.
There were some things that Kris Knoblauch would change I’m sure, and Jeff Skinner’s play once again is worth mentioning. He wasn’t the only one, mind, and the GA happened after he had been harpooned, but overall his play in important areas has been lacking. Knoblauch did his best to shelter Skinner’s line, but in 1:22 versus Lundell it was 1-0 Florida goals, 2-0 shots and 3-0 Corsi for the Panthers.
I think the top two lines were pretty solid and loading up worked partly because the Nuge ran a quality second (third?) trio. That’s a good news item from last night, as is Zach Hyman’s return to form and the continued fine play of wingers Kasperi Kapanen and Connor Brown. I’d have a downbeat take on Adam Henrique, but that’s kind of the Skinner bullet point above. I don’t know what to do with Skinner, but I think playing with Henrique is a wobbly solution. I guess I would try him with McDavid, honestly. Why would you buy a Ferrari and use it to haul manure?
Lots of reaction to this tweet, but I have no quarrel with it. The referees are supposed to be neutral and not place their thumbs on the scale of justice in a game. That didn’t happen last night, and even though I do think the Oilers were the chief cause of the loss, it would be insincere for me to criticize Yaremchuk for his take. He’s right. Referees sometimes make the story about referees. I don’t think there’s much in the way of credible pushback on that statement.
The Lowdown hits at noon and we’ll have Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic help guide us through the aftermath of last night’s game. We’ll also spend a few minutes talking about the Bruins game later in the week and the state of the Oilers at this time. It’s Tuesday, so that means Declanations is “Hi, my name is….” with Declan Krueger and we’ll be joined for portions of the show by Donovan Paulson (a wildly opinionated fellow with interesting takes) as well. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
I wouldn’t be surprised, I’d be shocked.
Stuart Skinner won 14 playoff games last season (Pickard one) – there was wobble and inconsistency but he won 14 playoff games – 7 of them with Jake O. and Sergei B. in the other net.
Skinner has proven to be able get playoffs wins against the elite teams in the NHL behind this core group.
Skinner is $2.6MM this year and next – a MASSIVE value contract.
I don’t know how you move on from that, with this teams, current and future cap structure, and come out ahead.
How do you determine a salary for Bouchard right now? Hero to zero, zero to hero and on and on. I hope the team is seeing what is available out there for him. Trading him is definitely one option that has to be strongly considered.
Podz and Kapanen having success with Nuge as a center could/should be something to look in to.
We all know that someone needs to come out of the lineup for Avy and, practically, they will likely want a player off the roster for cap accrual puproses.
It would be great to carry an extra forward then the likes of Jeff Skinner, who has his worst game last night, could take a night off, then Perry for a rest, etc., etc.
The only player right now that I think would be realistic for waivers is Ryan and the lack of a 4C is the only real issue – I don’t really care that much about the right shot faceoffs, I care about the ability to play the position.
If Nuge can center a successful line with those two wingers, well, that is something that could be very beneficial.
I love the line “Why buy a Ferrari and use it to haul manure?” LOL!
I’m on team Skinner for as long as he is being paid $2.6M. How else do you pay Connor, Leon and Evan? Besides no way you deflect those three shots off Skinner two games in a row.
If your knickers are still in a knot give an extra game to Pickard. He has won 4 of his last 5 starts and has a .916 SV% over the last 30 days.
Stop the defensive miscues and the Oilers win.
Split the glimmer twins 5×5 and balance the workload.
Focus on finding the 2RD.
If others didn’t hear it, Bouch was very hard on himself post game last night. Full accountability.
good, he was horrible. Likely hurt a bit though… He needs a rest.
Agreed. I’m wondering if we let him sit the two of the next three (Bruins on Thursday, then the back to back at the weekend) so he gets a bit of healing time before the Kings game next week.
Sometimes with injuries stiffen up on you a few days after they happen, and boy did he look more than a little off last night.
This was a measurement game. The score was not important, nor individual mistakes.
The first period and even preceding games show the Oilers are absolutely the most talented team in the league. At least in regard to pure skill.
The Panthers on the other hand have some good puck skills backed up with other types of skill. They are fast, physical and have a forecheck that is absolutely relentless. They take runs, play in the edge, they backcheck, mob the front of their net. They finish every check.
I witnessed the Oilers pull them apart for many shifts in the first. Beautiful passing plays.
Then I seen the Oilers tire, avoid hits, jam out. I seen no response from Oil when the going got tough. Speed dropped off, the Oilers were outworked.
Oil still flashed some skill here and there, they were close and easily could have come out on top.
McDavid was targeted for predatory hits, thrown almost in Panthers bench, thrown to ice, interfered with.
Oilers were outworked and basically bullied out of that game.
They still put up 5 goals, enough to win, good point, but again, should they procure another shooter get that 6th goal, or more compete to win some battles and prevent that 6th goal against? Same question as after game 7.
The biggest learning or confirmation for me, is that the team does not have enough grit to handle the Panthers. The point not to “beat them at their own game” but to give enough support to our side so that the Oilers high skill can do their thing without being mugged or injured.
my opinion is there was a huge amount to learn from that game.
I learned one thing: Get Kane back healthy and hugry.
or get some better luck on some crazy goals, or Bob doesn’t save that Drai chance at the end, OR get one extra save from Stu
I agree the oil need a bit more physicality. It was 6-5 I don’t think they had no response, they could of tied the game a few times on some very good chances.
Just one of those games.
I am likely being a homer but I always feel like the cats can push the line more and when the oil do, they get a stupid penalty called on them.
Chucky should def get the soccer dive called more. Actually I wish that was called more around the league. How was Jeff Skinner fined for diving on a horseshite call and Chucky does it probably most games. The officiating to me has been and is still a joke in the nhl, or actually maybe its just certain officials tbo.
So, if Oilers need to beat them best of seven, what do they need to do?
Cant count on refs, or chalk it up to luck.
Oilers put up 5 but no win. To win the 7 game series Oil will have to add an element to their game.
Their lack of response to anything physical has been ridiculous all year.
Tough loss last night. With all the blusters and supposed bad games by many players, the Oilers were in it to the end. 5-0 and 8-2 heading into last night’s game. 5-1 and 7-3 ain’t that bad.
Ek and Bouchard need a rest, and some lesser minutes.
Well, that game pissed me off.
Terrible reffing from start to finish.
The goalie’s job in a game like that is to calm things down – he couldn’t at all. Pickard wins that hockey game.
And last – a bunch of clowns prove they can’t watch hockey properly by thinking Jeff Skinner is the damn problem on a night with a kicked in goal, multiple BS powerplays, a shot off the back, another one that fell over Stu Skinner’s back because he didn’t track it, multiple gross defensive turnovers, and 14 and 2 acting like they’ve never played in the league before. Come on guys…
Skinners best talent is goal scoring, how many goals can Skinner score with zero shots on net?
There was multiple players with bad evenings, Jeff Skinner would be in that bunch. Not dumping on him, but it’s not sin to say he did not contribute to winning.
The Panthers are a frustrating team to play against.
And very lucky I might add.
Also… am I the only one on planet earth that saw Bobrovsky clearly handle the puck in the trapezoid on a clear?
Do you mean outside the trapezoid?
lol love this! It definitely wasn’t one player’s fault! Skinner is becoming the whipping boy though because he isn’t the best defensive player and he isn’t scoring like he can.
I’m not sure who your Jeff Skinner comments were meant for, so will push back lightly.
He is a great skill player, but like Joffrey Lupul decades ago, seems to have a real problem with making basic but important plays. Clearing the puck out of the zone is an example.
Love the player, believe he should be playing with McDavid, but Skinner’s play is going to get him off the starting lineup when Arvidsson and Kane return.
jmo.
I don’t love the player, but I agree with the rest of the comment. A team doesn’t get Jeff Skinner to play on the 3rd line. He needs to play with skill so he can outscore his deficiencies.
“You have to be punched in the mouth and remember what it used to be like to really appreciate where you are” – MCDC
Oilers win streak ends at 5 and you’d think they were in last place with some comments out there. Some folks need to step back off the ledge and take a breath.
Right after two multi-goal wins, a win against Tampa, blowing out Minny in Minny, a multi-goal win against Vegas and a one-goal loss to Florida.
Panick ensues. All the deficiencies are prohibitive if contending.
Do I have that right.
Caveat: this relates more to social media and call in shows as opposed to this specific community. Check out Oilers Nation – wild stuff.
If all the cards fall correctly by the deadline, this team will be a load to play against. It is partly already there.
Well, my gosh they’ve lost 2 games this month, both one goal games. LOL. They’ve only won 5 games, that must be something to be concerned about. Don’t you think?
LOL somebody doesn’t understand sarcasm.
I turned off the game at the end and was very satisfied with where the Oilers are at. It was a less defensively stifling effort than some earlier games this month, but they will see that and adjust. Honestly, they deserved better but a team can’t win every game, and Florida was hyped up to play them, especially after the last 2 stinkers they put out.
Watch some video, make the corrections needed and move on. Also, turn down the minutes for 14-2 for the next few games – they need a rest. Maybe even see what you have in Regula on the bottom pair to add some size to 49’s pairing. Can’t hurt in the long run.
I manage to avoid the mob.
iIf they had won, would everybody be happy?
Strange, because the lessons were there regardless of the outcome.
Yes.
Great article LT. The first paragraph in this article is dead on. I hope that was a reminder of what was happening earlier in the season. Lots of areas for blame though in that loss as you mentioned. The refs were awful, been a while since I said that, injecting themselves into the game. The oilers had an awful 3rd period, been a while since I thought that or said it.
It was a pretty ugly game and especially 3rd period and there were a few moments that changed things BUT there were 2 flukey goals by the cats, well maybe one flukey and one flukey brilliant? The bounces on those 2 goals could go any which way but they went into the net tonight.
Stache Skinner is inconsistent but it wasn’t on him tonight, Bob was sleeping a bit too plus bounces. It was a non D night by both sides.
We were 1 brilliant save by Bob on Drai away from going to OT.
Sutherland reffing means the game was always going to be a shit show.
Stu needed to make some saves, the defense lost control of themselves, the Nuge/Podz/Kapa trio needed to see more ice then the bottom 2 lines.
Nuge seems to play well with the Kostin/Podkolzin player type.
Ryan is a nice story but won’t be enough for the playoffs, Philp will not be the answer to replace that.
Jinner/Ryan/Perry are all likely to be traded/waived/benched
Podz & Kapanen are easy to play with. Keep that winger combo together. Great to see Nuge in there with them, for when they load up the top line. Arvidsson will help out the bottom six and so would Philp if they just gave him the chance.
I can’t imagine anyone looked at Skinner and said that guy will score some big goals in a big physical series.
This team needs like 2 in their prime Evander Kanes.
Seeing Stu fall apart in another big game is very disheartening but not surprising.
Panthers have Stu’s number. The team needs to do a better job of protecting their goaltender.
Last night was a perfect storm. Individual mistakes, the refs thinking people pay to watch them and Maurice and Tkachuk’s shenanigans. The planets aligned and there was fluxing Uranus with Mercury being a tardigrade.
Video coach will be busy today. Coverage issues, but more to optimize plays; Florida were extremely susceptible to the trailing player play.
These are the game I don’t put too much stock in. Played well enough to win, did everything we could not to.
Florida can play that same game over and over.
Oilers can take advantage of the trailing man over and over.
Injuries would take their toll over 7 games.
I think it was the biggest learning game of the year so far.
Arvidsson (and then Kane) will really help the bottom 6 of this team (which got absolutely crushed last night).
Hard decisions will need to be made by management as it’s not just taking players outs of the lineup but moving them off the roster (with waivers).
That’s how I see it too. I don’t think Podkolzin or Kapanen get moved off of Drai’s wings, they’ve just been too effective. Having a couple physical guys on the third line might give Henrique a bit more room to do his thing in front of the net
Sloppy game, no doubt, but Skinner should stop at least 3 of the goals on most nights and the Oilers win
Florida are the reigning Stanley Cup Champs they were shutout 2 games in a row. Everybody and their dog knew Skinner was going to get lit up like a Christmas tree against some talented shooters.
The Panthers look like they know how to score on Skinner. Mind you the Oilers similarly seem to know how to score on Bob. But at least half of Florida’s goal looked unusual, like Tkachuk’s goal that he missed with his stick but was lucky enough to angle it into the net with his skate seemingly with no kicking motion, or the puck that was deflected off Skinner’s mask at just the right angle to enter the net or the shot off Skinner’s shoulder that somehow angled into the net. It’s strange how they like to deflect the puck off Skinner and into the net. Is it intentional, something to do with Stu’s positioning or is it bad luck?
The Prime announcers mentioned numerous times how quickly Skinner was down.
Oh, and I forgot about the goal that went in off the back of I believe it was Emberson. Another strange one.
I guess what you have to figure out with Bouchard is why he was playing at an all-time playoff level, probably Norris-level, during last year’s playoffs. He had a few game states more effective than McDavid, if I recall correctly.
It seemed like the offence was as good as ever, but the defence and transition and lack of blown tires/brain farts was such an encouraging sign. He was destroying the opposition and playing the best teams in the league in the playoffs.
Is this too many minutes the last few seasons? Nervous about a contract year?
Sure hope he figures out how to stabilize his game.
Really strange how the poorly officiated games always seem to be against Vegas and Florida.
I swear they both pay off the refs or bettman does! haha.
Florida are dirty, divers that walk the line well and it works.
Pisses me off every time.
I would suggest that Ekholm made more mistakes in goals against than Bouchard last night. His worst game as an Oiler.
Both made terrible plays that hurt the team.
They both look like they need a break.
I don’t expect much in the way of changes, but the old man brigade starts looking for the buffet line under a full court press from a team with size, dinksmanship, or both – Foooey!
There you go LT and Declan
Henrique doesn’t handle pace well, he needs wingers that support his best game which involves his smarts and ability around the net. That’s not Skinner who needs to be set up, that’s mostly his game. If a forward goes, it needs to be him, he is not the Droid Bowman should be looking for, doesn’t help where the help is needed for this group
I remain convinced that they need some set offensive tactics to fall back to in games like that. When they hang around the lower boards trying to thread the needle through a maze of players, it rarely works, they turn it over, and I see the frustration mounting and the devolution of their game, or the top player’s games
If they have possession they need to have sets of quick passes to get the puck out front to an open player with a lane. Like happens to them. That will be a short window, so trying to do it with creativity mostly doesn’t work in games like that – they are looking around too much, hesitant, and the bad guys just stand in a pack in front of the net until the Oilers cough it up
Or back to the point with players getting in front to screen or deflect. They do it occasionally – it has to be consistent when there isn’t much else there when trying to cycle
They also need to start finding more assertive, meaner and in spots bigger players. They are open to being roughed up, Vegas does and and the Panthers. Too many nice guys that want to play nice hockey and aren’t that big. To me the only guys that get a pass on that are high talent offensive players. Everyone else needs to be able to bring physicality and edge when it’s needed
In a game like that if they had Kane and a few more dinks, they could have changed the momentum, get Florida off their thing. Being on the receiving end most of the time gets tiring mentally
Henrique, Jinner, Brown, Ryan is 66% of the bottom that aren’t really very physical even if Rico and Ryan hit, and smallish
Top 6 only Drai and Hyman are over 200. Kap and Pod give a lot, but they are lighter players and aren’t mean by nature. Nuge is small and can get pushed to the margins in games like that
On D right now only two are over 200. That’s a small D group. Emberson and Stecher try, but they aren’t big enough to make anyone think twice. Ekholm is aging and I don’t think can be relied upon (or should be) to be able to bring a hard game all of the time. He seems tired
Bowman has made teams more balanced that way, we’ll see. Regula is bigger, but from what I have read isn’t a physical type. They need some meaner and bigger guys – especially in the bottom part of the roster – that are zero fun to play against, and know when to get it on. Kane and Nurse aren’t enough and J Brown isn’t playable
The Oilers have been one of the top teams in the league for almost two months. I would not expect changes after one bad game that resulted in a one goal loss to an elite team.
I do note that all the cool kids on social media who have had nothing to post about in recent weeks are out with a vengeance. Vitriol towards many players and current and past management.
Every loss.
I get what you are saying, but I don’t agree completely. What it comes down to are what are the expectations for success for this group? That is always going to be mitigated by having Connor McDavid on the team, as it should be. When you have an all time great player, it’s different than for other teams
There are some very talented players. MacK, Eichel, Barkov, Point/Kucherov, Crosby who is the best of those players. They all are not in the same echelon as Connor by production, and they all have at least one Cup
If being one of the better teams in the league is the goal, fair enough, they are there, based on their current record and getting to the finals last season
If the goal is bigger than that, which it is to the players based on what they have said, and for many fans, there are still some things to worry about and improve in their game. The same things happen against top teams, that speak to the need for improvement
They beat Vegas but many thought – including the coach – they were more puck lucky than good. They were poor and scrambly against the Panthers, who controlled the game even if they got behind, or at least took it over .The Panthers were in control of that game mentally for sure. Missed Kane there
The same issues came up with mental lapses and forcing plays that aren’t there. Getting pushed to the perimeter for a big part of the game. If winning a Cup is the goal, they still need to improve in some areas, and that is fair and valid criticism when the same problems happen over years in key moments
It’s not vitriol at least for me, I want them to reach their full potential, and the progression has been painfully slow. It’s part of the process for some fans who want to analyze the game
You hit the nail on the head
Isn’t what you described Jeff Skinner’s strength – finding the lane in the slot and unleashing his quality shot.
we’re watching in real time why Skinner is -138 on his career (an actual number). Evander Kane can’t come back fast enough.
Jeff Skinner might be an important salary dump to accommodate a higher-priced defenseman from a non-playoff team.
By March that will be around 1,080 NHL career regular season games and 0 career playoff games for defense-optional Skinner.
The NMC might make that tougher to do
LOVE the idea of swapping his salary for an actual D, minus the definitions in his contract that say we can’t. Feels like we’re pot committed to him. And likely, he’ll be in the pressbox during the playoffs. Can we trade for “McLeod”?
Oilers played great, until they lost the plot.
Team needs more discipline, to be sure.
A lot of people are going to have qualms with Bouchard, Ekholm, Skinner and co. And the Refs. And FLA being grime-y.
But this team is getting scoring from its top 6. And there are some gems in the bottom 6.
But I look at that 0% xGF for the Skinner-Janmark-Henrique trio and see red flags for days.
That game exposed some of the Oilers lack bottom 6 skill and speed. And Jeff Skinner, my lord, he might be able to shoot the puck, but he can’t forecheck, can’t play defense and can’t play the boards.
It really looks like the game is passing him and Henrique by. And Derek Ryan to boot.
There are reinforcements coming, but I miss the days of McLeod skating pucks out of danger and Holloway / Foegele skating them into danger in the O-zone.
This team needs some youth and speed in their bottom 6.
Henrique seemed better than this last year, but it’s like the wheels have fallen off. I’m almost more disappointed in him than Skinner just because he seemed like a known commodity after the playoffs.
Henrique looked slow in last years playoffs. He just happened to score a few goals so nobody seemed to notice.
Skinner is Mike Hoffman lite. If he isn’t scoring, he’s not an NHL player. Even if he gets hot and scores 20 it’s difficult to see him in this lineup when everyone is healthy.
I don’t think trading him is an option, doesn’t he have an NMC? Thank God he’s only signed for this year.
Per NHL Edge, which tracks actual data on elements of player speed, does not have Henrique as being slow. He has hit 22.63 MPH this season, which is 80% for forwards. Considering he is below 50 percentile in TOI, he is also 78 percentile for bursts of 22, and 52 and 55 percentile for bursts over 20 and 18 mph respectively.
He is definitely not as fast as McLeod, and maybe he looks slower comparatively on the Oilers, which have the second fastest skating team in the NHL by every measure on NHL Edge, but he is not slow. He his shifts are short (45 seconds, 12th on the team, so he doesn’t run out of gas).
I’m not too disturbed by the outcome of the game last night.
But as someone mentioned on the game day thread, this is why Bouchard is not on the 4 Nations roster. He’s too deep into his career now to be making these errors, or rather, he’s too deep into his career for us to anticipate he will rid them from his game.
I know when one criticises Bouchard one needs to provide a suite a caveats for fear of appearing as if you have a superficial understanding of the sport. And don’t get me wrong I like what he brings when he giveth, but holy cow he gives a lot of it back.
I have no answers for this player. Other than accepting that glory might be one brain fart away at any moment.
I do wonder if he is 100% after that crash the other day. He seemed like he had some slow boots last night.
Slow boots don’t explain the bad decisions and puck plays he makes.
For a guy who is supposed to be great at passing and putting pucks on net, he sure seems to get a lot of passes and shots blocked or deflected.
I doubt Bouchard is going to change his decision making, but I would like to see him better at the skills he’s supposed to be good at.
It’s hard to live with the risks when his strengths aren’t on display.
I think slow boots absolutely played a part in Bouchard’s rough night. He is normally very good at walking the blue line to change up his angles to get the puck through. He is also usually a threat to take it deep, meaning guys can’t glue themselves right to him or he just walks around them. He seemed unable to do those things last night and was often trying to thread the needle and make a dangerous pass, or try and shoot it through whoever was playing him tight at the point. At least that’s what I saw.
Didn’t help that his partner was having a very bad night in his own right.