The current Edmonton Oilers feature Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner as homegrown talents. That’s six men, about one-half of the 1984 group. It doesn’t matter really, but the age of these Oilers signed via free agency does. The Oilers race against time will be on display today, in the second game of a back-to-back. All hands on deck, even the dilapidated aged in the group. A win today, and things breaking right out of town, gets Edmonton to No. 2 in the Pacific by midnight.
The Athletic article today is about Phil Kemp at a crossroads. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 7-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 20-11-2, 42 points in 33 games
The shuffle in pairings didn’t happen yesterday, and it was mostly about the Sharks brilliant young goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. He had a “Gilles Meloche is brilliant for the Seals versus the Canadiens at the Forum” game and it should be mentioned this version of San Jose is going to go Sharknado in the near future. For now, the Oilers can thank the Glimmer Twins and timely stops for their two most recent victories.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard played well for the Oilers, and made some huge saves late in the game to give Edmonton every chance to tie it up. Even the folks who regard every goal allowed as a mortal sin by the stopper would have to admit that Pickard’s role in the game was pivotal to the result.
All three goals were gorgeous. The McDavid ‘Hemsky goes round the world’ play and pass to Zach Hyman involved speed, expert passing and a fine release. McDavid made another incredible pass to Corey Perry to begin the second goal, nice pass from Perry and Mattias Ekholm has a great shot. The third goal was all Glimmer Twins, that little delay by Leon Draisaitl just enough to change the equation. The Oilers have lost many games to young goalies playing lights out, that win yesterday shows this version of the team has spine, work ethic and outrageous skill.
We didn’t see the pairings shuffled as expected but the results were rock solid. The only mistake I saw was the corner work by Bouchard-Kulak and honestly sometimes you need to give the other man his due. I think the second Sharks goal was (again) partly due to a slight delay by the shooter in getting the shot away.
I want to mention Adam Henrique, who had a fine game to my eye. He didn’t cash but had several chances. I also want to say that Corey Perry is one of the smartest players I’ve ever seen in the offensive zone. He’s incredible. So many inspired puck plays made since he arrived in Edmonton.
I think I’d run this group back again, although getting Derek Ryan in another game before the break has merit. Troy Stecher had his best game in some time from my pov, but Stecher-Emberson isn’t working. Not really. A final note to say that Vasily Podkolzin has a chance to be the most popular Russian on an Oilers team since Boris Mironov.
COLIN CHAULK
I see Matthew Savoie and Matvey Petrov doing great things again, and I wanted to make a quick note about Colin Chaulk. He took a lot of heat last season because Xavier Bourgault and others were struggling but I never bought it. He played the living hell out of Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe, but you can’t give the coach 5 young and emerging wingers at the same time and expect them to develop. The herd had a cull in the offseason and now we see what happens when management gives the coaching staff a workable number. I feel badly for Tyler Tullio, Xavier Bourgault and Carter Savoie but am pleased Petrov survived and is now flourishing. Chaulk is doing a fine job with his young forwards this season.
So Edmonton at 8-2 is facing a team with an 8-1-1 record today. Certainly not to be taken lightly. Diving into a comparison of those 10 game records:
Ottawa 3.2 gf 1.8 ga 14% , 79% pk
Edmonton 4.0 gf 2.2 ga 30% pp 82% pk
However, more importantly, 8 of Ottawa’s games have been against non-playoff teams and the 2 playoff teams, Carolina and Vancouver, have been slumping losing as much as they have been winning in this stretch.
Edmonton’s last 10 games 7 of 10 were playoff teams (including 3 division leaders) and of the playoff teams, only Minnesota has been slumping.
Credit to Ottawa for getting back into the playoff race by beating teams they should beat if they want to get into the playoffs, but based on strenght of schedule the Oilers are the hotter team going into this game. They don’t need their A game to win, but a C game or worse could end up with an L.
I do wish they would put skinner on the top pp and take Nuge off. Otherwise there is absolutely no reason to have Skinner on the roster.
You’re right, there was no reason to have him on the roster.
Would be nice if WSH could provide some out of town scoreboard help – the Kings and Knights have been hot just like the Oilers.
Vegas finishes 2024 with 4 games.
vs. Ducks
@Sharks
vs. Flames
vs. Canadiens.
They should be favoured to win all 4.
Kings have 3 left.
@Capitals
vs. Oilers
vs. Flyers
In a scheduling quirk, LA will have played 21 road games after today and only 13 at home.
They are 10-2-1 at home.
Also, Drew Doughty is expected back in the lineup in early January.
LOL – you’re “strength of schedule” posts re: rivals of the Oilers backfires every single time. It was, what, a month ago that the flames had six games against non-playoff teams coming up and would separate from the Oilers and then proceeded to lose 5 of 6?
I do think the Noel H. for Jacob Perreault trade, along with the addition of Lane Pederson back from injury, has made a legit difference as the added skill has has really helped solidify the top 3 lines.
Petrov/Grubbe/Wright as the third line is a very good AHL line with the way they are all playing.
Thank you Matvey Petrov for announcing your arrival (6 goals in 5 games and he’s a very strong 2-way player).
It’s too bad Jarventie is hurt as it looks like the gang is stringing together some nifty little trades. Even if Perrault never makes it if he can be a key to unlocking Savoie and some other youngsters then it’s a win in my books.
The Jarventie situation is very disappointing. At this point, my hope is that he is fully healthy this off-season and able to train for hockey and be ready for next September.
Perrault has been playing with Pederson and Griffith – not really getting much ice with Savoie.
It’s the domino effect one line unlocks another line and so on.
The pass was fantastic but it didn’t get across clean and that may have been the reason they scored. Perry said he planned on one-timing it but it didn’t get across fast enough. I think Askarov makes the save if Perry shoots!
I like having Ekholm on with the goalie pulled he has a good knack for being able to sneak in open down low. When do we start talking a 2 year team friendly deal for Ekholm? I’ll check back with you in a year.
Can’t begin to (officially) negotiate with Ekholm until Jul 01.
But they CAN with Emberson and I am somewhat expecting a deal within a few months of the calendar turn, something in the 2 X $1.65MM range.
I still have a bit of worry about an injury stopping him from playing 50 games this season leading to Group 6 UFA status – I think he’s still sign back but would rather just lock it up.
I presume that he’s happy as heck playing nightly on this team in this city (but, of course, just a presumption).
I wouldn’t be doing that until his contract is over. He won’t leave for money, his family loves Edmonton he says, and he’ll be 36, have to see where he’s at physically in nearly two years
Yes, for sure. Time to actively mitigate self inflicted wounds.
Or, apparently, a mortal sin by Evan Bouchard – Brett Kulak can do no wrong!
Some even blamed Nurse for that first goal… & he was sitting on the bench.
I’m waiting for someone to blame Smid.
Given his TOI the last couple of games, would not be surprised if Jeff Skinner gets the scratch tonight and D. Ryan is back in.
Although there are some that think J Skinner should be on the top line with McDavid replacing the mighty Nuge.. I don’t think Connor would agree and he probably picks his linemates.
Truth be told, Jeff Skinner has 3 more point (3 more goals) at 5 on 5 than Nuge does and, well, much less ice time and lesser linemates.
Players earn their ice time. Nuge contributes more to the team. Coaches appreciate that sort of thing and so do teammates.
And a -10 on a team that the next lowest player is -4. He’s as bad defensively as advertised.
But Nuge needs to start getting more points. And Skinner needs to start packing his bags
Sometimes benching a player, as unpleasant as it can be in the moment, helps given them the reset they need. Skinner is gifted offensively. But I like that KK wants his players to be responsible at both ends of the ice.
There’s an old quip from Casey Stengel about a 3rd baseman who in the top of an inning singles to drive home a run, and in the bottom of an inning makers an error to allow to. “I can’t win too many games with them fellers”.
I feel this is where Skinner is right now.
Lots of “concerns” expressed here this morning for a team that has won 2 in a row, that is 8-2 in last ten and 7-2 in the month of December. Maybe it wasn’t as pretty or dominating as we want, but they got the games to OT to secure a point and then won in OT for the 2nd point. This is a big deal.
The last 2 games have shown us that the 4th line isn’t working. Maybe it’s the lack of a true centre, or it’s the jSkinner effect. I’m curious how long they continue with the Janmark experiment at centre.
I don’t get the concern either. The only reason the top 6 played so much was Askarov played out of his mind. Most games that’s a blowout.
Because maybe we’ve all seen that overplaying the big guns leads to burning them out in past years
This. The concern isn’t that they are a good team, but what are they doing differently based on the past playoffs to increase their chances this time? Because we are seeing the same issues that cause the biggest problems as I see it
PP can be reffed out of games, especially in playoff games where the refs ‘want to let the players decide it’. They need to improve 5v5 scoring still, although more guys are producing I think so far, only Janmark hasn’t scored 5v5
Still they should be stronger, currently 5v5 8th in GF and 14th in GA. I say this because they have a player in a league of his own, and three other elite players in Drai, Bouch and Ekholm when he’s feeling good, and more good talent
I’ve never seen them burnt out – I’ve seen them truly injured in the playoffs effecting their play.
Literally 2nd place in the entire NHL since November 1 (by points percentage) and there are various areas that aren’t fully up to speed.
I wanted them to draft Kemp and they did. I have waited 7 years and the poor guy can’t get a break. He’ll end up in New York, Boston, or LA as he has connections to those teams. I hope he comes back to bite us in the ass.
His foot speed and lack of puck skill probably ensure us that’s unlikely
You’ve mentioned this before, and I’m curious about these connections. Is it family members within those organizations, ties to coaches or other staff?
in the land of butterfly goalies it’s nice to see a stand up goalies. With plummeting save percentages I think we’re gonna see a shift. Askarov is gonna have a very bright future
There has to be a happy medium. Just don’t go down too soon and there you have a standup butterfly.
Askarov is a stand-up goalie?
Pretty clear watching interviews last night Miller and Pettersen don’t get along that well. Tochet says it’s fine as long as they play together. I don’t buy it at all. Can you imagine if Draisaitl and McDavid didn’t get along? Pettersen just signed the big extension so I imagine Miller will be dealt. Team cohesion is a absolute must for any winning team.
I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Pettersson traded.
There were apparently very serious discussions about that between the Canucks and Hurricanes over the summer and there is considerable chatter about acquiring Bo Byram to shore up their D.
He has a NMC that kicks in next season.
Rutherford and Alvin are not afraid to swing big deals.
I can’t see them trading there franchise player they just signed. That wouldn’t wear very good.
They almost did last summer.
And that was before this latest dust up.
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/latest-news/the-carolina-hurricanes-should-revisit-elias-pettersson-trade-talks
If they were going to trade Pettersen they would’ve sat him for two weeks not Miller I would think.
I think the “time out” was Miller’s choice.
Yeah, all tough guy hockey players leave their team to battle on their own when they’ve had their feelings hurt.
See Mathews, Austin.
Good luck getting Necas plus now 😜.
No one is trading for Petterson without a sweetener at this point. He is currently not giving value for his contract, and the whole league would be aware that the Canucks would be desperate to move one of their problem personality players.
Elliotte said Cozens and Byram. I think that’s a reasonable trade. However a cost-controlled top 4 D man at that price would be the best return in this deal. I am not sure Buffalo would want this without a draft pick, honestly.
Thank goodness Edmonton has built a team and winning culture, with selfless and caring leaders
Miller is more of a Tocchet kind of player. I wonder if Tocchet gets along with Pettersson?
Yep.
I think Pettersson needs a “second opinion”.
Tocchet has been very terse with the media lately and that is certainly not his nature.
No idea what the answer for them is, but it’s a pickle! Miller has full NMC and can’t be traded without his permission until July 2027. That’s a long time to wait if he’s who you want to trade.
Petterson can be traded anywhere until July 2025 and then he has a full NMC for all 7 of the remaining years on his deal.
So you either trade Petterson in the next 6 months, or you’re basically stuck with both of them for two and half years. Brutal.
Sure doesn’t help that this has gone very public. And while every fanbase has ignorant “fans” (hello goofs accosting McDavid on a beer run!), the Canucks fans that are ignorant are, quite arguably, the loudest of any fanbase.
Sorry, can’t hear you with that fish stick in your mouth.
Doss anyone have any idea what the problem is? I remember the NY Yankees in 1977-78 with Reggie vs. rest of the team and manager Billy Martin. Team won 2 WS.
It seems JT Miller is very demanding of his team mates and Pettersson doesn’t take criticism very well.
Pettersson was very crusty when asked about it after last night’s game.
https://youtu.be/89_cZHAzelM?si=mXLwfEo883CipyVR
Lots of signs seem to support Miller being a bit of a locker room cancer and a problem on every team he has been on, including with coaches and management.
I am unsurprised you are framing it that it’s a Pettersson problem, given how high you were on JT Miller.
It’s a Canuck problem. Boo-Hoo.
Both sound like real catches 😆
Miller is a hot head. Calls team mates out and shows them up occasionally. Probably not a fun guy to be around.
Exactly you don’t need to like your teammates.
Jackson vs Billy North as well. But Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds didn’t pan out, neither did Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb. So, can team mates who are mortal enemies still win it all? Sometimes, I guess. Can the Canucks win it all with these two squabbling? Of course not, they will always be the second tier Dale Talon bland Canucks that nobody really cares about.
It appears Allvin is prepared to make a trade.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-coffee-another-loss-where-jt-miller-elias-pettersson-go-missing
Another game where 6/7 of the forwards played 4th line minutes and 2 of the defensemen were spot duty. This deployment was against a bottom dweller in the NHL.
I am not confident we are fast enough, big enough, structured enough or deep enough to win play-off hockey. Our Top 6-7 will get us into the playoffs-offs, but …..
Last season before playoffs I worried that their 5v5 play would be their Achilles heel. They get points and score nice goals, but a team with this much talent should not have such a hard time scoring 5v5 in far more games
With the talent level of Connor and Leon, on their own lines each line should be good to average a lot of HD chances and at least a goal a game 5v5. So 2-3 as a base line, then the other forwards and PP. I’ll attribute D goals to the forwards they are with
Not every game, but on average. At this point they should be rolling teams like the Sharks, and most others. They should be winning most games handily in regulation and racking up the Power Wins (by 2 or more goals no EN). I’ll see if I can find the time to get that going this season, as those wins speak to true team strength
I listened to a video I ran across
https://jhanhky.substack.com/
Jack Han Hockey Tactics Newsletter. The video 5 habits of a highly effective linemate
His take ties into mine that I have posted here, regarding tactics and what is holding the Oilers back from the levels they could be at
They are a great team with many good players, but that doesn’t mean they are as good as they could be. No team is, most aren’t working with 3 elite offensive players, and many other very good ones
Movement clauses, age, that new management hasn’t had much time, there are a few things that make it hard to make changes. This roster is good enough even if I would make some moves if possible, but they need to develop their O zone attack to be more effective in every situation consistently, and I don’t see that they have yet
I hope Knoblauch sees it and is working on it. As LT said about Perry and I posted yesterday, the way Perry plays below the circles needs to become how they all try to play. Smart plays to get good quick set ups in front, and setting screens looking for deflections, all of the time. Like how the Bergeron Bruins did it. It can beat any defensive structure
Then you add the talent and its ability to freelance and break plays for rushes and you get to the level I think they can be at most of the time. That they aren’t at the top of the league in scoring and Connor isn’t in first place speaks of this to me. Even playing good defensive hockey they should be, as it feeds into offensive production every coach says, including theirs
It’s a style/ tactics thing to me in the O zone. It seems to me that their break outs and puck movement through the neutral zone are better than least season, one phase left
I don’t know if we’ve talked about this, but McDrai are going to shatter the OT records. Obviously aided by the 3×3 format, so can’t compare eras, but it will be interesting to see how high they raise the bar when all is said and done.
As far as OT points go, they both hit 40 and moved into a tie for 2nd, only 6 pts back of Crosby (McDavid in 675 games compared to Crosbys 1307). The next closest active players in the same game range as these 2 are Panarin at 33, Seth Jones at 30, and MacKinnon at 28. Eichel and Matthews are on decent pace as well, with 26 pts at under 600 GP, but injuries have limited the career pace as they are similar age.
OT goals has Draisaitl at 17 and McDavid at 16, with Ovie’s 26 definitely within reach in a few seasons at their current pace. This one is closer, with Scheifele, Miller, MacKinnon, and Matthews within range
OT assists McDavid’s 24 just pulled him into a tie with Crosby and Carlson, 6 back of Malkin. Drai at 23, tied with Panarin as a contemporary for games played. This one is the tightest to predict long term. Outside of Panarin, closest challengers – Huberdeau has 22, Krug has 21, and Quinn Hughes has an impressive 17 assists in his first 409 games.
They will no doubt shatter the points record that may not be approached for some time. I think Draisaitl gets the goals record and may hold on to it for awhile, while assists will likely be top 5 for each
Thanks. I didn’t have the numbers or history at hand, but to me Oilers in OT is, as LT might say, “music.” A few minutes (or seconds) to watch big pond play by dominant talent.
Draisaitl has 4-2-6 in OT this season, just 40% done, McDavid, 0-5-5.
All time leaders for Oilers OT goals: Draisaitl 17, McDavid 16, Kurri 7.
Kurri scored the first regular season OT goal in Oilers’ history when OT was reintroduced in 1983-84, already his fourth season. The original rule was 5v5, moreover a team that lost got 0 points so the approach was quite different. There was a lot more “hang on for our one point”:hockey, esp. by inferior teams &/or road teams.
Whereas the modern 3-on-3 there is nowhere to hide, moreover both teams are playing with house money. The Oilers have played 9 OT games so far, all have been decided, in a total time of under 14 minutes. 6 of the 9 lasted less than 80 seconds.
I worry about the distribution of playing time on the Oilers, and whether it is sustainable through mid-June.
But I do not see any unbeatable teams in the league either (yet).
True no one or two teams ahead of everyone else, but there are a fair few teams playing very well. It’s wide open but will be a tough playoffs
There is no reason for the big guns to play this much
They want to win.
Is there really an issue? Sharks top minute munchers played just as much as the Oilers did yesterday. The Oilers have 5 in the top 100 TOI/G. Avs have 7, TML also have 5. Vegas have 4.
The last stretch has me concerned about sustainability of health. This skilled team plays with almost no physicality. While they do have jam and don’t shy away from taking a hit to make the right play, they have no answer to bully mode. Florida demonstrated that. The Bs also did a bit of it.
Are we all just waiting for Kane to come back and be a nuclear deterrent? I would be concerned with any significant deviation in strategy, as well. This is definitely a skill team that does best in a skill-rewarding completion. A game that digressed into tit-for-tat wouldn’t be ideal but you just have to have an answer to full bully, no? The playoffs will have teams attempting to use dirty play to slow down the Oil’s skill. And the referees won’t make calls. These are all knowns.
We’ve subscribed to the “hurt them on the scoreboard on the power play”. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to figure out the flaw in this plan. We get reffing from someone like Sutherland and we will have a moral Stanley Cup, not a real one.
As we have discussed many times, we now get game management instead of real officiating. How does Connor not lead the league in penalties drawn?? He gets a call or two and then reff says thats enough for you play on…….
They only seem to call many penalties in earlier series (to set the tone, ha ha) and as a series goes so do the calls. Which is why you need the asshat plan for those times, or the ability to absorb punishment and not let it deter you
But if you take that road self preservation is important, you can’t let them injure you as much as possible. If Drai didn’t get so hurt I think they would have won. To me if they are cross checking, slashing hands and hurting guys as happened to Drai, what option is there but to take their guys down a notch in kind? That’s how they did it in the olden days
I’m already dreading the possibility of playing the damn Kings in the first round for the 4th year in a row. That’s their go-to strat for attempting to beat the Oilers. And every year, they take their pound of flesh before going down.
Every. Damn. Year.
And more and more teams have followed suit when playing them. The Nucks and Panthers last year, and Vegas the year before. If only a group of individuals would punish them when they attempt such Tom-foolery. You know, to promote fair play an adherence to the rules of the game.
Re more physicality/policing the ice (in lieu of refs calling fouls)
I am watching more physical teams a) waste energy chasing hits for the sake of hits (this will wear them down long before it wears skill teams like Oilers down); b) accruing PIM (even if not to the level Oilers fan may like) – eventually, when the Oiler PP gets sorted, this will cost goals and games; c) sacrificing themselves in the false god of “hits = wins,” instead of bowing to the real gods of “playing smart makes/breaks plays.” It’s nice having a guy like Kane in your corner. But he’s not really been “that guy” for some time. Even against the Canucks/Zadorov, his attitude (as much as I loved it) was a sideshow.
I think Knoblauch is right in his approach with this team. Their grit is to play hard -forechecking, in the corners, backchecking- but putting smart, skilled hockey ahead of retribution etc. Guys like Nurse, Podkolzin, Perry, Emberson, etc have occasionally asserted themselves and the team in that way. The Oilers have that capacity. But their greater strength is to outshoot and outscore you where it really matters. This team was not ground down by the much more physical Panthers. They came back from 0-3 and took it to within two goals of a Stanley Cup. Trust them. Don’t ask them to be the Panthers, Bruins, Kings, etc. Trust the team & Knoblauch to figure the bullies out over a series, even if they can’t figure them out in a one-off game during the regular season.
This is the right take in my opinion. The Oilers don’t muck it up, get in fights, or skate out if position to try and hurt other players. But they DO play through all of the interference, clutching and grabbing and hooking, and yet still manage to beat most teams and almost win the whole thing while going through a literal gauntlet of goons. And people call this team soft?
To me, that takes far more grit and determination to play the way they do. I’m sure many of the players want to get out and take their pound of flesh, but KK values winning over everything and seems to keep them on a short leash in this respect. In my opinion, you can’t blame the players because it’s the coach’s MO, and I wouldn’t blame the coach because what he’s doing appears to be working
This team has been through playoffs runs now, including a grueling run to game 7 of the SCF last year. They’ve learned its, as much as anything, a battle of attrition.
I think the “lack of physicality” is a conscious effort to have the least amount of wear and tear on the bodies of these players heading in to the playoffs.
Senators beat the Canucks in OT last night. Late game then travel. Should be advantage Oilers. Senators playing good hockey lately and getting good tending. Hopefully not Askarov good!
Sens rested the red hot Linus Ullmark last night, he’ll go tonight.
oddly, both teams enter tonight’s game coming off back to back overtime wins. For each, their third game in four days. But for the Oilers, no travel.
Not liking how we come out in the first. Book on us seems to have reverted to “pressure them early, get a couple of goals and try not to wake up the glimmer twins.” I wonder if there’s colds or flu. We’re struggling to match intensity until the first period.
Felt a little sorry for Celebrini in OT. I made a prediction to my friend that he would have a good game but would be welcomed to the NHL by McDavid and Drai at some point of the game. He’s going to be a good one, though…
Book isn’t working – Oilers are the 2nd best team in the league since the end of October.
You know, LT, it really makes me feel old when you tell me that a group of 30-35 year olds (only Perry and Ryan are older than 35) are “dilapidated aged”
Just wait until you hit 40. Recovery and stretching are so damn necessary!
I’m there, man!
40? Try 70. Off to the gym shortly.
70 is the new 40.
Maybe if your name is Moses.
Moses Malone?
And then there is nearing 70. As an elderly (now long passed) friend used to say, “I don’t feel old.” … except some days I do
“A man’s only as old as the woman he feels.”
– Groucho Marx
When you find out the correct spelling of ‘dilapidated’ later in life used in a sentence regarding age is a double insult to wake up to on a Sunday morning. Thank LT, think I’ll go back to bed.
“It’s not the years, it’s the mileage.” -Indiana Jones