The Edmonton Oilers delivered an efficient, business-like weekend in collecting four points against two teams that are building toward a new tomorrow. Oilers fans have been there, done that. On Sunday night against the Ottawa Senators, the club was effective in suppressing high-danger chances and mistakes were few. Kris Knoblauch might be the coach who harnesses all this talent and gets the entire roster playing two-way hockey. What a time to be alive!
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 4-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 8-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 21-11-2, 44 points in 34 games
Oilers are in second place, Pacific, and on pace for a 106-point campaign. What a difference a year makes. I have the club going 2-1-0 from here, and that would mean 10-3-0 for December, a hair above what was predicted before the start of the month. Full value, the team is playing very well.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner has a .916 five-on-five save percentage since October 15, .926 in December. He and Calvin Pickard had a productive weekend, in front of an effective set of skaters. I’m trying to remember the last time an Oilers fan could safely pee or grab a beer without worrying about the on-ice outcome during an absence. It might have been 2008-09 (that was a good defense) but was probably the year of the Pronger (2005-06). The 2005-06 team surrendered 242 goals, the 2008-09 team 244 goals and this year’s team is on track for 229 GA.
The defense had few wobbly bits and of course Evan Bouchard is a bad, bad man based on what you’ll read online today. The truth? He’s exceptional. The Oilers have five defensemen over 50 percent goal share five-on-five: Darnell Nurse (62 percent), Mattias Ekholm (57 percent), Evan Bouchard (54 percent), Brett Kulak (52 percent) and Troy Stecher (51 percent). That’s a lot of quality, and young Ty Emberson is coming on, too.
I was impressed by Zach Hyman (again) and Viktor Arvidsson (huzzah!) last night, and do wonder if we see those two men with Connor McDavid again this season. It was fun to watch the line, Arvidsson is a rascal and has skill. That’s a fine addition to the group. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins illness isn’t a “Wally Pipp has a headache” moment but it’s nice to see Arvidsson contribute on a skill line.
Adam Henrique’s line is suppressing offense and outscoring five-on-five at impressive levels. Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown are terrific wingers for the purpose and one suspects we are seeing a playoff trio refine their skills. I liked the Derek Ryan last night, the rest seemed to have helped the veteran. Jeff Skinner almost cashed on a fine pass from Corey Perry, that would have been a nice happening.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had assists and skated miles, even on a night when they don’t go supernova their presence is key. McDavid’s pass on the Arvidsson goal was pure witchcraft, Draisaitl’s giant oar pass to the slot created havoc and then a goal. Music!
The Oilers get some well earned time off now, and we’ll talk about possible trades, the World Juniors and more in the days to come. Best of the season to you!
The Lowdown hits the radio at noon today, Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from ESPN and Betalytics will join us to talk Oilers, Rangers, Leafs and more. Jason Gregor will pop in to discuss the Oilers weekend, the NFL and we’ll also chat Jays. Declan Krueger’s Declanations will feature MMA and college football playoffs. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
I like the top 3 lines from yesterday a lot. Could we try Skinner Nuge Perry and maybe have 2 3rd lines? Skinner and Perry the play makers and Nuge the defensive conscience and they all think the game at a high level. it could work.
Nuge was missed on the PP last night. His importance on both special teams is clear. Arvi did a fine job and presented an opportunity for a new wrinkle. When a PP has been together and clearly successful for nearly 3 years and one of the key puck handlers goes out it is going to take a few reps to get up to speed especially when they go from 3 LH+2RH to 3RH+2LH. You could see the improvements as the game went on… Arvi established himself in a territory and they started moving the puck around as a stationary Powerplay with a few switches (Arvi and Hyman/97+29) and you saw less of the 97 wheel around the outside. Good options to have.
Bouchard is not exceptional. He has great hands, great vision in certain situations, and is a very good attacking defenseman. He plays with two “exceptional” players so I would call him “exceptional” adjacent. Maybe I’ve just watched Quinn Hughes play too much the past couple of weeks…
Whenever I watch the Canucks, I hardly even notice Quinn Hughes, maybe that’s how he’s so exceptional. The good ones you don’t notice until you can’t help but notice.
Whenever I watch the Canucks, I can’t help but notice Quinn Hughes who is the best player on the team. Incredibly elusive & smart as a whip.
I agree. Is he a bit like Whitney – great outlet pass, great PP point man? My memory is foggy and we only got the tail end of Whitney.
I really like Bouch. But he needs to keep the urgency level high at all times. He doesn’t have elite edges/explosiveness to get him out of trouble.
Recall the playoffs the last two seasons.
Bouchard led the playoffs in scoring for d-men in 2023 – and only played 2 rounds.
He followed that up with breaking Paul Coffey assist records in 2024 while playing elite 2-ways.
The man is exceptional when it matters most.
82 game schedule is gruelling especially 1st pairing. I’ll take Bouchard when it counts not in game 27 after 3 games in 4 nights. The goal against Ottawa on the road is all you need to see to know their is more dynamics to come. Bouchard also will master that dangle move as he continues to gain confidence. The flood gates will open for Bouchard as he’s been snakebit on the goal front.
I think he is a very good offensive damn, and I also think he very fortunate to play with two players who truly are, what I consider to be, exceptional. I remember the playoffs. He was outstanding.
I think you nailed it. The question is, what are you willing to pay him on his next contract. Bouchard at 3.9 million is a steal. Bouchard at 8 x 10 million makes me nervous. And I think the coach agrees.
For instance, Bouchard seems like the 6th best option on the PK. And it’s Emberson who is paired with Eckholm at the end of the game to protect the lead. That doesn’t look like a coach who really trusts Bouchard.
I really don’t know what I would do at this point. Maybe Bouchard has a great second half and playoffs and the decision becomes easy. But if he doesn’t,…….
Does Hughes PK and protect the lead at the end of games?
I don’t think Hughes PKs. Don’t watch enough Vancouver games to remember who’s out there protecting leads.
My question to you is, if Bouchards second half and playoffs is similar to his first half, what are you willing to pay him?
If another team offered him 10 million as a RFA, would you match? Or would you take the draft picks?
If another team offered you a cheaper, quality RD and another significant piece, or pieces, would you trade him?
I’m betting these are things that Bowman is considering right now.
Bouchard usually plays a big role in getting the lead. Does he really need to protect it at the end of the game too? Emberson is also Ekholm’s partner on the PK and Emberson could use the ice time. Bouchard gets plenty of ice time for a player the coach apparently doesn’t trust.
Playoff scpring leaders, last 2 seasons:
Bouchard 37 GP, 49 points
Heiskanen 38, 28
Montour 45, 24
Forsling 45, 21
Makar 17, 20
Ekholm 37, 17
Fox 23, 16
…but no, not exceptional at all.
Dam those Oilers, what do they expect me stress over for the next five days!
Apparently, Evan Bouchard.
Christmas can be a stressful time of year all on its own.
Merry Christmas!!!
The team needs to help Boosh. The other teams are double manning him and our guys are smoke bombing like Shinobi when this happens.
There’re a few guys on the team that get double manned. But that’s ok eventually someone breaks free, and it isn’t always the few that are being double manned.
Double teaming Bouchard brings the inherent risk that he will beat you with a pass to the open man. For all of his warts that are all over the internet at all times, the man also has some high-end skills, with elite passing at or near the top of the list.
This is exactly why the opposing team presses him. They give him time back there and he’ll pick the lock.
SOMETIMES, he will pick the lock.
The most disturbing thing about Bouchards giveaways, is that a lot of them occur when he is under little, or no, pressure.
The goal he gave up last night occurred when he had full control of the puck, and plenty of time to make a play. He also turned the puck over on a 1st period PP from the left point. Very little pressure, and he put it right on a Senators stick at the faceoff dot.
LT talks about singular negative events, but there sure are a lot of them with Bouchard.
And again, a lot of them seem to be self inflicted, and not caused by heavy pressure from the opposition.
It is possible to like what Bouchard brings, respect his immense talents, and also feel that for him to contribute the way he ought to, he needs to resolve a fixable element of his game, one that consistently leads directly to goals against. These are errors that have the potential to be deflating in big games. A bad turnover tends to reward the underserving opponent, they are not errors resulting from being outplayed or hemmed-in or out-skilled.
Expecting Bouchard to eliminate these unpredictable goal-costing turnovers from his game shouldn’t be some third rail. The goal-share is good. There’s room for it to get better and thats how the team will win a Cup.
This isn’t an inherent quality to his game, it can be fixed. Just please before the next best of seven.
When is the last time we saw Darnell Nurse snow angel his way to a series of goals against off his ass or elbow? Its the same with Bouchard. Let’s get these guys both responsive to the moment and then we have some real scary potential.
I think it’s all so easy for Bouchard that he goes into autopilot, sometimes the opposition gets a stick in the way which can be bothersome. I mean most of these plays he makes he can do in his sleep and at times he even looks like he’s asleep. If he didn’t wake up for the playoffs I’d be concerned. But his attention to detail during the playoffs was exceptional.
The solution for the Larry Murphy problem was six other defensemen on the team who were superior defenders, and 14 forwards committed to 200 ft. hockey. A team can have one D, and one F, who are loose, but that is about it.
As long as Bouchard is the only guy, there really is no problem. We will point out the blunders though, and hopefully laugh at them, because the team is winning.
I don’t know what you pay him though.
That’s the problem, at times Bouchard isn’t the only guy. Their commitment to defense however is improving. But defense is so boring, sometimes it’s hard not to cut loose and have a good laugh.
It is easier to replace the other guys, then to hope Bouchard gets fixed or fixes himself.
So Bouchard, like Larry Murphy, presents a challenge to management and the coach.
There is no right decision in choosing to commit to Bouchard or choosing not to. If one chooses Bouchard, a manage and coach has to accept the consequences of committing to Bouchard in terms of players on the remainder of the roster, and systems.
Scotty Bowman was able to do this, twice, in two different places, with Larry Murphy Other teams and coaches failed miserably or had varying degrees of success or failure.
They have no difficulty committing to Connor & Leon, I suspect they feel the same way with Bouch. There’s just too much upside.
This is exactly how I feel. I really like what he brings to the game, because his skill plays, even the subtle 10 foot pass, most players can’t make. I can live with the odd pass that goes astray, even if it leads to a goal against. What I don’t think is acceptable are the Hockey 101 errors, like trying to beat the oppostion at the blueline. I think his situational awareness needs to improve. He seems like he has a high hockey IQ, so he should be able to get those blunders out of his game.
During the Hyman board battle last night, I was suggesting to the TV after several Spicebox’s and Eggnog’s that he was doing great things in that battle to secure the Ozone. Then out came the elbow to the face of the Sens player. I also saw Draisaitl take the Tkachuk heavily into the boards for his pound of flesh on the wrong brother. For those clamoring for team toughness lately, I suggest it does exist. It arrives from the least expected players when the push back is necessary likely due to retaliation, and it’s all throughout the lineup.