These are some estimated numbers (plus boxcars) for the 2016-17 Bakersfield Condors forwards. The table is estimating icetime, points-60 and quality of competition. That’s a massive reach, but the absence of alternatives clears the mind. All forwards over 2.00 estimated points-60 made the NHL grade. Huh.
Today I’d like to discuss estimated time-on-ice for some of the current Bakersfield Condors, specifically Matvey Petrov.
The Athletic article today focuses on four Oilers who are under the radar contributors of note this season. Article is here.
Eric Rodgers has been running numbers for Oilers fans since 2010 and his work has been invaluable to this blog over the years. We’re trying to figure out what the boxcars mean, and a big part of what we cull from Eric is even-strength goals-for and against. Eric sends me the numbers on a regular basis and I share them with you from time to time.
He also sends time-on-ice estimates, something I value but don’t publish much. Why? Lots of noise, despite Eric’s best efforts to make things rhyme. I do use it sometimes, especially when trying to find reasons for progress year over year.
That brings us to Matvey Petrov, who is having a strong start to his second AHL season. What do the toi estimates tell us?
In 2023-24, Petrov’s estimated time on ice was 8:49 per game with 25 seconds of that total on the power play. His even-strength points-60 (based on time estimates) was 1.62 a year ago. Disappointing number, but Petrov was in competition with Xavier Bourgault (estimated 13:06 per game) and Tyler Tullio (10:32) for RW playing time behind men like Seth Griffith, Raphael Lavoie and Dino Kambeitz.
This season, Rodgers’ estimates have Petrov at just past nine minutes of even-strength time per game. The estimate is from late November, and Petrov has been playing more lately, so a bump to (say) 11 minutes seems appropriate for our conversation. Using that line in the sand, Petrov would be running about 2.50 points-60 at even strength so far this season.
The Rodgers estimates are fascinating, and by season’s end they will represent a large enough sample to be trusted. At this point in the season, we check down to Pts-Game. At even strength year over year, Petrov has stepped up from .23 to .46 points-game at even strength. That’s an outstanding number, and puts him near the top of the heap among Condors forwards:
- Noah Philp .55
- Matvey Petrov .46
- Matthew Savoie .44
- Jayden Grubbe .28
That’s an impressive run by Petrov and it looks like his post-Christmas spike came early. If he can continue to be productive for the rest of the AHL season, Edmonton will have developed a real forward prospect from the depths of the draft. That’s a fairly rare feat.
For those who are concerned about Matthew Savoie, and there are some, Dylan Holloway posted a .30 points-game at even strength age 20 with the Condors. Savoie is a terrific prospect doing good things at a young age as a new pro.
At noon today, the final pre-Christmas edition of the Lowdown hits the airwaves. We’ll have Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic off the top of the show to discuss his outstanding article on Leon Draisaitl. We’ll preview the bowl games, discuss the Christmas day schedule and talk about the World Junior tournament, too. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Apart from a duly noted exception of occasionally getting to watch (and skate with!) the Nova Scotia Oilers back when I was 8 and 9, I had very little awareness of the Oilers prospect pool until I discovered this blog. I was always just a turn on the TV and root for the team on the ice, kinda guy
Through this site I’ve developed a whole new layer of knowledge and appreciation for this team and I love coming here daily to find LTs thoughtful statistical analysis on players and prospects, Tarkus’ regular prospectivus reporting on all our draft picks, OP’s live updates on the Condors and everyone else who takes time out of their day to regularly contribute their insights and opinions – be they contrarian or otherwise.
So thank you again LT for gifting us this special corner of the internet to learn, debate and commune as fans. And a shoutout to Tarkus, OP and everyone who contributes here daily to make this the place it is. I’m not much of a poster myself, so thought I’d at least offer my gratitude.
Merry Christmas and happy holiday everyone!
Appreciate that – happy holidays!
Well said! Merry Christmas to all as well!
It also should be mentioned that 20-year old rookie pros often struggle early and perform better in the 2nd half of the year – we should expect a strong second half from Savoie.
He’s also the type of player, in my opinion, that will produce even more at the NHL level playing with smart and skilled players that he can make plays with. Savoie doesn’t seem to like hanging on to the puck a ton – his game is about smart and skilled quick plays with the puck.
Maybe they won’t drag their heels with him. Seems guys you root for end up somewhere else and end up doing great.
He’s still 20 (for another week) and on the first year of his ELC.
The Oilers have been a top 2 team in the league since end of October and likely want to move a forward off the roster (to get 7D active) at some point. He’s not breaking to door down to get a call-up so, for now, I’d continue to allow him to develop – I would say they are a long ways from dragging heels.
Like many small players with skill it will depend on how he can translate his talents to the hardest league. It’s a tall mountain few climb for long. Of course I hope he’s a star
Petrov really struggled early in the year offensively. We know he wasn’t in great shape for camp. There may be a bit of context there as, yesterday, Chaulk mentioned that he was hurt last year and didn’t have a full summer. Perhaps that was part of the reason for not being in great shape but, either way, he struggled at prospects camp, main camp, AHL camp and early in the season.
Of course, he is on fire offensively now, often scoring with that shot of his and has really settled in on a line with Grubbe (who is playing great) and Cam Wright.
All of his production is at 5 on 5 as well and I’d like to see him get a bump on to PP1 over Griffith or Caggiula or Pederson. Savoie is a staple on PP1.
It should also be mentioned that Petrov is a very responsible 2-way player and has been since his last year in North Bay.
This pop is maybe 3-4 weeks long so we’ll see if its a real pop or a heater but he’s put his name back in the conversation.
Thanks for adding to LT post. I don’t watch prospects just pay attention to stats but it feels like there might be a bit of optimism for Petrov.
getting ready to head up island for family get together, may not check in here too much the next couple of days. Just want to express my thanks to LT for this site and the careful attention to the whole team, especially the prospects. I love getting to know their stories and I wish they could all make it (though my rational side knows some will miss). It makes following the team all the more interesting to me. Cheering for the guys on the fringes!
I’d like to send a shout out to the Edmonton Oiler players like (Podkolzin, Kapanen, Janmark, Henrique, Brown, Arvidsson, Perry & Ryan) plus guys like Kulak, Emberson, Stecher & both goaltenders who don’t get enough credit for this team’s success. They are the platoon that
truly make it happen.
Evander Kane for Chris Kreider?
Discuss
It would definitely add some speed to the line up. And probably more goals given sh%.
NHL Edge data for last season (because Kane hasn’t played yet this year, and sample size):
CK – https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8475184
EK – https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8475169
Age is the same.
NYR would have to be enticed to retain about $1.5MM in salary for this year and next.
And then, there’s the pesky detail of both players having NMC provisions on their contracts.
Could certainly be an upgrade, but seems unlikely.
They’re both UFA’s next season and aging power forwards. I didn’t realize Kane is UFA next season, it should be a big motivation for him to get back and playing ASAP. I don’t see the rangers making this trade, Kreider is healthy and ready to go. He’s also a $6.50M cap hit.
Jeff Skinner regularly outscores Kreider at 5v5. And he’s cheaper, and not signed for 2 more years.
The only upside Kreider has over Kane is his current health status. He’d be a downgrade otherwise.
My mistake, I thought he was UFA next season. I would have to say though Kreider would certainly be an upgrade on Jeff Skinner. Kane still remains a mystery. There’s no telling what sort of a player Kane will be when healthy.
He’s like a box of chocolates.
I love Kane when he’s healthy and ferocious. No telling what kind of player we’re getting back after surgery, but I’m tempering expectations.
Kreider on the other hand is an elite power forward who’s competitive as hell and has a track record of good health.
Good health being key. I’d bet on Kreider as opposed to Kane to offer more come playoff time.
Exactly. So, why would the rangers make this trade?
AND why are we even talking about this?
Kreider was a healthy scratch yesterday and has 6 even strength points so far this season. In a season where he’s not doing well and the Rangers are imploding, organizations can do some drastic things.
The Rangers traded their captain already, so why not their longest tenured player?
It’s a buy-low opportunity on a player whose a proven playoff performer.
Nothing more nothing less.
For Evander Kane?
Not really supporting the trade one way or another as I haven’t followed Kreider much.
I did find it interesting that he was healthy scratched yesterday and I didn’t realize how poorly he was doing up until that point. Was mostly sharing what I learned that could answer the “why would the Rangers trade him?” part.
There is no comparison between Chris Kreider and Jeff Skinner. One is a 5’11” perimeter player (a fancy Dan), while the other is a 6’3” 230 linebacker on skates.
Who do you prefer lining up for us in the playoffs?
Evander Kane.
You (and a lot of other Oilers fans) have already written off Jeff Skinner, but he’s producing nearly 3x the points at 5v5 as Kreider is (1.49 v 0.54 P/60) this season. He outscored Kreider last year and the year before too, so it’s not a short term trend.
If the contracts were equal I wouldn’t be against giving Kreider a shot here, but $3M x 1 is a lot different than $6.5M x 3. Kreider is certainly more physical than Skinner, but sometimes that takes a toll and at 33 he appears to have headed off the proverbial cliff.
Birds of Fire making news!
First, as reported yesterday, Clattenburg signing his ELC.
And now, Day being named OHL Goaltender of the Week. Second time he has been so honoured.
Clattenburg’s signing is notable. This is a player Brock Otten (who covers the OHL in great detail) didn’t have listed at all (as was the case with William Nicholll).
Looks like the Oilers scouting staff did a fine job last summer.
https://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2024/06/2024-nhl-draft-results.html
If Clattenburg develops a rounded enough game he will get a push I think, not for his offense. Rare bird in the org
Glad for Petrov. He seems to have an NHL tool kit, love the shot, hope he can keep going. OP says his defensive play is good, I imagine it will come down to whether he wants to play in front enough. He has the size. He seems like the type of winger Dallas would develop into an NHL player
Petrov is starting to sound like the type of winger Leon likes to play with.
Connor Clattenburg reminds me of a young Kelly Buchburger. Who eventually became an Oiler captain. Not sure Clattenburg has Buchberger’s speed, but he certainly has his toughness and desire to succeed.
How about a cross between Buchburger and Curt Brakenbury.
Curt Brackenbury hardly had the distinguished career of Kelly Buchburger. I hope he isn’t a Brackenbury comparable for his sake. I have higher expectations and so should Connor Clattenburg.