The Edmonton Oilers finish the calendar year 2024 today, that means tomorrow is the Standing On the Shoreline item. For today, I’m going to discuss identifying stubborn coaching trends (they’re all stubborn btw) and their individual keys to success. I also want to take a quick moment to talk about the Rick Pracey Oilers at the draft table.
The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner, Vasily Podkolzin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen. It is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 4-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 8-3-1
- Oilers in 2024-25: 21-12-3, 45 points in 36 games
No matter what happens in this game, the Oilers covered the bet in December and turned north with authority. There is more than half a season left to track down Vegas, and if we’re honest the Pacific Division’s top three teams look like they could run away with it unless the Vancouver Canucks can get their act together.
STUBBORN COACH?
Kris Knoblauch is an NHL coach, and he’s stubborn. That shouldn’t be news, they all are. Craig MacTavish, my favourite coach since John Muckler, was incredibly stubborn and at times inconsistent. He endured the defensive chaos of Marc-Andre Bergeron but did not value Jeff Petry highly. Players who flourished with MacT as coach looked a lot like MacT, from Marty Reasoner to Fernando Pisani to Toby Petersen.
Several first-round selections tried to kick at the darkness until it bled daylight during the MacTavish coaching era in Edmonton. Ales Hemsky made it early, as did Sam Gagner, and guys like Andrew Cogliano made it on time. Marc Pouliot should have made it, I don’t think Rob Schremp got much of a chance (he was a one-dimensional player, but it was a helluva dimension).
MacT coached a long time in the NHL making decisions that didn’t necessarily reflect well on the GM/scouting director’s draft choices. Why did he get to coach so long? Well, he won. His team overperformed expectations most seasons.
Fast forward to Kris Knoblauch and some folks are mad that Jeff Skinner isn’t playing with one of the Glimmer Twins as his center. People believe there’s no damn way Skinner can be optimized without a high-end skill center. People are correct.
So, how can Knoblauch justify this decision? Knoblauch wants GA-60, SA-60 and CA-60 suppressed, even on a team with high-octane offense. So, the Oilers 25.92 SA-60, which ranks No. 6 overall, is an important statistic for Knoblauch. When Skinner is on the ice, the SA-60 is 32.62. The GA-60 (Oilers: 2.36, No. 14; Skinner: 3.16) is probably the main reason Skinner represents ‘downstairs’ in the classic British show “Upstairs, Downstairs” on this Edmonton team currently.
Now, there is a story to tell. Skinner isn’t playing with the two best players on the team, so his numbers are likely to be shy based on that one fact. Additionally, the Oilers expected goal share when he is on the ice (47 percent) is far better than the actual (35 percent) factual. He’s playing with depth centers and he’s unlucky.
Does Knoblauch care? No. He has options that are performing better and running with them. I can argue that it’s shortsighted because every NHL season is a long one and at some point injury may allow Skinner to move up and flourish. Oilers Nation is down on him now, but regression is a thing and Skinner is extremely likely to market correct, especially if he gets a push from a skilled center.
Knoblauch is winning. Nothing else matters. However, Skinner has value and scores goals, a key for any winning team. I’m not arguing he should play up the depth chart all the time, because he is an absolute tire fire in coverage and identifying danger. I am arguing that he should see more time with McDavid, even if it’s to give Nuge a break from the pressure of not scoring much on the No. 1 line. There is risk, but there is also reward.
PRACEY’S DRAFT
Rick Pracey and his scouting staff are seeing impressive early results from the 2024 entry draft. Sam O’Reilly had a slow start for the London Knights, but is now 13-17-30 in 32 games this season. He projects as a middle-six, two-way center with some gumption. Eemil Vinni has an impressive .920 save percentage in the Finnish U20.
Connor Clattenburg, who is a year older than O’Reilly, is scoring (11-9-20 in 24 games) and is one of the few ‘rugged’ prospects in the system. I have a ‘Mitch Moroz’ vibe from his numbers, but he was chosen in the fifth round and that’s the good place for his player-type. RH defenseman Albin Sundin is performing well in the Swedish second league (Allsvenskan). Dalyn Wakely, who is two years older than O’Reilly, is doing great work in the OHL (16-14-30 in 26 games) and I do wonder why he isn’t in Bakersfield already.
Draft and follow William Nicholl is a real prospect based on the numbers (33, 12-21-33) and is worth getting excited over. We’ll see, but the spike season-over-season tracks with other success stories in the draft and follow category. Bauer Berry is a player who would have to develop an extreme strength (improved foot speed an example) to be considered a true NHL prospect. Pracey’s first draft looks good so far.
Final show of this year, we have a great guest list. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic and Bruce McCurdy at the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will give their opinions on tonight’s game and the second half of Edmonton’s season. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Happy 2025 from Sask!
Consumption of fine tequila + Cards Against Humanity with friends = good times.
Hope the new year is good to you and yours.
Where in SK?
Swift Current.
It’s been 30 minutes since we rang in 2025 in the Atlantic, happy to start the year off with an Oiler win! Happy New Year to all!
Solid win – never really in doubt.
Score reflects the game play to my eye.
Draisaitl with the empty net goal the irony.
Happy New Year from Sri Lanka! Finally with some wifi to watch a period.. not feeling like I missed much the past few games..
I spent New Years 2019 in Sri Lanka – a sailing trip off the south coast.
Amazing amazing time.
Only got a couple of days in Colombo though.
Enjoy!
Good job by Hyman to draw the PIM but tunnel vision – no idea he had a wide open teammate driving to the far post.
Unrelated to hockey. I checked out the link for the adventure your wife will ‘enjoy’ soon. That looks like a blast and a big challenge. Good for her.. and you nervously supporting her from afar!
Awesome, thank you for checking.
They literally just “hit the road” to start like an hour ago (NYD morning in India – she just facetimed me from the side of the road somewhere where they gassed up and are having some Chai.
Safe and sound so far.
Score on the breakaway and its game over.
Le sigh.
Skinner (Stu) seems to have found his confidence as this game has gone on – starting to look very square to shots now.
Happy New Years from the rock all!
Can anyone who knows more than I do explain how Oilers get out hit by 2 and 3 x by the opposition seemingly on a regular basis?
And won’t this eventually beat the Oilers down so by the time they get through the playoffs they might be pummeled into submission?
1) Part of it is the Oilers have the puck more than any other team in the league.
2) Part of it is the coach wants them to defend/check with body and stick position primarily
3) Part of it, and this is my personal speculation, is that the team is consciously trying to reduce aggregate season long wear and tear on their body knowing the physical toll it takes to win the Stanley Cup.
Easton Cowen has been BRUTAL through the preliminary games.
Seems like a very selfish player, same with Pinelli. That’s on the coach, no accountability with this Canadian team. Sad to say it’s almost hard to cheer for them.
Nurse looks perfectly fine, which is huge.
Playing well tonight (a bounce-back game) – I don’t fault him on the GA.
Rantanen and MacKinnon team up for another empty net point. Sigh. Its going to be tough for our dynamic duo to keep up with the other 4 who have feasted on the empty net
Oilers seem remarkably terrible at scoring on empty nets. More power to Rantanen MacKinnon.
These are what you call “big stops” right? Not crazy 5-alarm saves but Skinner has made 2-3 saves on point blank shots from shooting areas since the Oilers took the lead.
Oilers traditionally allow the opposition various 5 alarm shots per game.
It’s one of the reasons a lot of goalies get run out of town.
Numbers show that the Oilers generally do not give up 5-alarm shots with high regularity (as compared to the league).
Trip, lol!
Was looking at the leader boards.
Hellebuyck has the most wins, saves, shots against, shut outs, best save percentage, lowest goals against average lol
What’s his playoff record?
Great puck retrieval battle by Nuge.
RNH is a canny veteran these days.
They cannot afford Nurse to have another core/groin/hip type injury.
Vintage RNH. Smart savvy plays, sneaky steals, good positioning. Hopefully this is the beginning of more inspired 5×5 production.
With all the hate towards the contract for Skinner, Brown’s is looking like a steal.
Mahalo and happy new year to everyone from Kona
How do they not call any of these infractions – in particular when its coming in waves and they can only defend by cross-checks and holds?
Game Management.
That’s because the Latvia ref is working the world junior and calling everything against Team Canada.
Daddy Nuge with the golden touch.
Stetcher it is 🙂
Pour it on!
Brown continuing to put up numbers.
Troy is leaving Utah in Steches!
Relentless!
Nuge says hello, at 5v5 no less.
5 on 5 goal by Nuge who started and finished the play!
Summarizing!
Wakely finished with a goal and three assists, earning 1st star honours.
O’Reilly also put up 1+3, which got him named 3rd star.
Clattemburg had a goal and a helper, good for 3rd star honours too. Had a game-high 8 SOG.
Day was supposed to get a rest but drew in after his understudy got lit up for five goals on nine SOG in the first period. He stopped all six shots he faced in relief the final two periods.
Nicholl did not dress for a second straight game.
Over halfway through regulation, shots are 20-6 for Canada but US is up 1-0 in goals.
All while US goalie has a dub .900 save %
I hope the knuckleheads and the phlegms have a fight-filled game and destroy each other. Hate both of them
Dearest Kapanen, don’t start to Krapanen.
Kapanen did not know what was hapanen.
As Bruce mentioned ealier, Kapanen has the worst GA/60 among forwards (with a bullet) and he was late on that one…..
Swedish snipe!! 🚨
Great shift – great puck retrieval and traffic.
Ekholm scores on a great dish by Podz!
No reason for the Oilers not impose their will, on the ice and scoreboard, against an objectively inferior team with an objectively worse scheduling situation.
Had a feeling we could seen Brown elevated – per Tony B.
Looks like the Oilers playing
So much under what it should be
If TC wants to win, maybe focus on the details
Weak sticks comparatively and shit clears and dumps es no bueno. Manage the puck
Smart clear by Akey after a US player was going all Fancy Dan near the line.
I don’t know any of these players, but watching a lefty in Price getting walked repeatedly while playing the right side ahead of Akey is bothering me.
Wakely zips home his 17th of the year to open the scoring less than two minutes in.
The first period is still going and Wakely has already added one, two,
fivethree primary assists. Oh, and six SOG.Vegas blows a 2-0 lead and loses in regulation to a lottery team.
NOT A CONTENDER (by some standards of things “contenders don’t do” – hint: they all do all these things).
They got goalied.
Montembault was exceptional. .931
It happens.
Especially to the Oilers.
“It happens.”
You should tell that HH guy this.
Haha- the troll was lurking to pounce on that comment
oh really ? you don’t say…
Love to see it! Hopefully we can take full advantage and gain a little ground in the standings tonight.
I don’t like Vegas. As an Oilers fan who was born too late to experience the glory years, it’s my opinion you should suffer at least a bit before you get to be good. You can’t just show up out of the blue and be good! Also, for the last couple of seasons Alex Pietrangelo has been my least favourite player in the league.
My fantasy hockey opponent has Adin Hill too, so I thought it was a great result on so many levels.
Remember when Quinton Byfield was supposed to be a generational player?
I’ve always liked Skinner as a player and would like to see him with one of McDrai at some point this year in a sustained look. Don’t want to cheer for injuries/a losing streak to see Skinner elevated in the lineup but seeing it for 10-15 games straight would be interesting at least to see what you have in Skinner before the trade deadline.
Separately, Nuge has always been a PP wizard/PP merchant who defensively conscious at 5×5 but his offense left you wanting. He’s on the back 9 of his career snd I hope significant decline isn’t imminent over the next 4 years. Wonder if a slide down to 3C with fast/young wingers would be a good time for him later in his career. One of my favorite non-superstar players I er the years.
Being a smaller guy Nuge isn’t a strong enough skater to play C in the league as it is now. None of the coaches have used him there more than occasionally in years
I’m not sure if he’s declining or that players are getting faster and faster/bigger is making him less effective. He had ‘the season’ but hasn’t been that strong 5v5 for a long time
Fair, but I don’t think he would be completely out of place down the middle in a lesser role. He’s not much smaller/slower (I think?) than Henrique and he was effective as a 3C into his mid 30s. Obviously having him on the wing covers up some of his weaknesses, but if he’s not producing on Mcdavid’s wing, the team as whole might be missing something by having Nuge occupy that spot instead of someone else (perhaps with more upside).
Henri is some bigger and hits far more, he’s a more assertive player, goes to the scoring areas
Perhaps switching them may work if Nuge has the right wingers
With this many forwards to work with there simply has to be a third line combo featuring Skinner that works. If the objective is to saw off, pull the kids off Drai and use them as Skinner’s puck retrievers and defensive conscience. Or just one of the kids plus Phillip. If the goal is to outscore while chasing the soft parade, maybe some mix of Henrique or Nuge or Arvidsson.
I don’t know what the answer is, I’m just sayin there’s gotta be one that doesn’t depend on Skinner skating w McDrai.
I thought the goal was to win games not pacify Skinner or his fans
The goal here would be unicorns, or four solid lines, not propping up Skinner at the expense of the team. He’s an asset. Let’s find a way to make him one.
As for pacifying his haters…
I don’t understand why you think trying to find a way to unleash Skinner’s scoring prowess is about pacifying fans and not about winning games?
Already with an aPPle, Clattenburg deposits a juicy rebound on the PP for his 12th of the season.
3 second period assists for O’Reilly so far, 2 of which were aPPles.
And now his 14th goal of the season to start the third.
Baba O’Reilly really turning his opponents into a teenage wasteland tonight.
Janmark and Brown have taken the measure of Jeff Skinner, and are not going to let him take their spots with Henrique.
Podkolzin is not going to screw up his second chance on a new team.
Arvidsson, if he stays healthy, has a broader toolkit, and the production is starting to come.
Kapanen is on his last chance rodeo. He has not show his weakness, inconsistency, in Edmonton.
Perry, may not help in the playoffs when things speed up, but plays in and around the bluepaint at the high level, on a team with too few players who find the bluepaint enough.
Ryan is really not in competition with Skinner.
It is not exactly a murderer’s row that Skinner has to beat out.
Soon to be joined by Evander Kane as well.
I’m not a Jeff Skinner hater, but do I struggle to see where he fits.
I agree, in hindsight I think the team is better with Fogele or Holloway than Skinner, but it’s in the team’s interest to figure out what they have in him before the trade deadline. Even if he doesn’t find chem with one of mcdavid or Draisato for another 10 games you might be able to convince him to waive his NMC on an expiring contract so he can go elsewhere and try to rebuild his value for next year.
Per Gazzola:
Do the Oilers have a pro scout in Buffalo? If they do they should be fired. I believe Skinner had five coaches in buffalo. All but one had him in the doghouse. This was predictable. The Oilers needed the opposite of this player.
I think Eakins was worse than Mact, obviously, but in this aspect especially, sewered Yakupovs career trying to turn him into a grinder.
Is this true?
In 2022/23, Skinner was 2nd among forwards in TOI/G
Last year, he was 6th among forwards in TOI/G (within 30 seconds of Tage Thompson) – 2nd line mminutes
Hence the ‘all but one had him in the doghouse’. Someone had to play, this is why stats are useless by themselves. anyone here watching knew that Skinners warts outweighed his opportunistic goal scoring.
That’s a good point. I think Jackson wanted better 5v5 scoring and jumped at the stats at that price. I don’t think Jackson was wrong wanting better scorers
Skinner is the kind of guy that has to be set up. That’s fine if he’s a top scorer on the team. But on the Oilers Connor and Leon need to be set up because they are the best scorers. Or need the wingers to help them play their best game
Hyman gets a pass for the forechecking and that he has speed and size and usually gets to the right places. What they need is a winger with a better 5v5 game than Nuge for Connor, that is a better finisher,and preferably fast to keep up, and as you said that has never been Skinner
The best scenario is he takes a trade out, it’s not going to happen, outside of injuries
Hopefully, have to spend money wisely.
Is this true?
He was 50%, 55% and 58% in 5 on 5 goal share the last 3 seasons.
I “wasn’t watching” but I do believe that goals scored vs. goals allowed is the most important “analytic” for winning.
Granato liked him, he coached the last two. The rest who I assume “were watching” didn’t. Same with KK.
I’m not a sabres fan so I didn’t pay enough attention. My opinion is it was a bad move. Waste of cap. I might be wrong but this is a place where we should be able to voice them.
Numbers show the following has not been true the last 3 years: “Skinners warts outweighed his opportunistic goal scoring.”
Context, cherry minutes on a terrible team.
I don’t like wasting my time, Last time I respond or read your posts. Why don’t you do the same, or not, I don’t care.
Was he in the dog house or was he getting cherry minutes – those two statements by you do no reconcile?
I’m simply trying to reconcile your statements with facts – they don’t seem to.
Maybe the problem was that they did have a pro scout look at him as well as using the numbers to make a decision. It’s only a one year deal for relatively low money. I understand the need for the mob to go from whipping horse Nurse now that he’s playing well to easy target Skinner but I still think Skinner scores 20 plus more importantly rifles a couple of big ones in the playoffs.
Mob? I said this right after they signed him. Listening to the local sports station and jumping over the border to catch games there for the last 6 years…but carry on.
He’s streaky though, still a chance for him.
Why don’t you start your initial post by stating that you watched him in Buffalo instead of stating it later in the discussion while getting defensive and snotty after people challenge your opinion?
I’ve stated it before. Where did I get snotty? I responded in kind.
There may be some logic to what Knobby is doing with J Skinner. Here’s who he’s played with
Line/TOI/GF/GA/SF%
Skinner Henri Janmark
92:47 / 2 / 2 / 43.7%
Skinner Henri Brown
51:45 / 1 / 1 / 50%
Skinner Nuge Hyman
44:01 / 1 / 3 / 37.3%
Skinner Drai Arvi
34:33 / 0 / 1 / 64.3%
Skinner Connor Hyman
30:19 / 1 / 4 / 52.9%
Skinner Ryan Perry
14:45 / 1 / 1 / 45.8%
Skinner Nuge Arvi
9:27 / 0 / 0 / 54.5%
There are lots of other lines but the TOI gets too low to say much. It seems they’ve tried him a few ways, assuming with Nuge and Connor they played harder comp, he hasn’t done well against better comp except with Drai, he’s better against lower comp
Thus Knobby’s comment about ‘who is he elevating’. If they do try top 6 again maybe Drai is the better line for him. At this point that would probably mean Arvi was out again. Or maybe play Arvi with Connor and give Nuge some 3LW time
Based on your numbers, I’d rather see Skinner-Drai-Arvy again for a spell. It made sense on paper before the season, and early results suggest another look wouldn’t be unreasonable.
That would also open things up for Podz to bring the juice in the bottom six.
Using Emberson as a proxy for the third pair and Ryan as a proxy for the fourth line, it is pretty clear both need an upgrade.
Oilers goal share without Ryan is 69-58. With Ryan the Oilers are 76-71 (Ryan is 7-13).
Oilers without Emberson are 61-49. With Emberson the Oilers are 76-71 (Emberson is 15-22).
Oilers depth lines need a boost.
If you take out the first three games 5v5 Emberson is 15/18 45.5%. Stecher is 15/17 47%, the other D over 50%
Skinner 10/19 34.5%, Ryan 7/13 35%, Kap 8/13 38%, Perry 11/13 46% and Janmark 13/14 48% are the leakiest, all others above 50%
If you go to Nov 1, Emberson 12/16 43%, Stecher 12/13 48%, not much change
Skinner 7/17 29%, Kap 8/13 38%, Perry 7/11 39%, Ryan 6/9 40%, others above 50%
Not looking good for Skinner, he’s now been HS. Ryan has picked up and his GA down by 4. Kap running in place, as he settles that has to get better. Perry regressing, if it wasn’t for the cap I think he’D be seeing some HS games. Janmark is at GF 52% so improving
I think if they got stronger at C and got a big D that can play they would be better. Ideally get a 3C pushing Henro to wing and Philp at 4C playing better than Ryan
For D it would depend on what’s available. Kulak Emberson are 13/15 605:33, Nurse Kulak 8/6 207:21, Kulak Stecher 1/1 60:34
The easier get is a big LD to play with Emberson. Then there would be size on each pairing. I think in playoffs it helps. Nurse and Ekholm are the only two over 200lbs
Is Emberson really the problem on the 3rd pair? Or is it his partner not named Kulak?
I know we need something to talk about, but Skinner in the PB isn’t it. I see him pretty good – always around the net. This is not the same situation as Brown last year, but as long as Skinner doesn’t get frustrated, imagine a player of that talent coming out of the PB or off the bench down the stretch or in the playoffs… I think the challenge he is having is McDrai – highly value (maybe slightly over value) possession, where I think Skinners game is shooting – aggressively going to the net and it may result in turnovers in lower scoring chance situations. We have seen this a bit in Kane who is also not a strong possession player. Also if he does get frustrated and wants out… ok again, I don’t see a loss for the oilers here.
“I’m going to need a long stick to score from the press box.” — Petr Klima
may he rest in pace.