Standing On The Shore Line (2025)

by Lowetide

The Athletic article today is about Adam Henrique and his struggles. Item is here.

  • On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 4-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
  • At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
  • December results: 9-3-1
  • Oilers in 2024-25: 22-12-3, 47 points in 37 games

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flyfish1168

Lets go Finland

dangilitis

Knoblauch demoted Adam Henrique and it worked like a charm, with the big pivot flourishing on a soft parade wagon with Jeff Skinner and Zach Hyman. Shame they didn’t score.

I was thinking the same about it being a demotion, but for Hyman. Laing has an interesting take that I hadn’t considered:

https://oilersnation.com/news/the-day-after-37-0-why-keeping-zach-hyman-off-connor-mcdavids-line-could-be-the-right-move-for-the-oilers

Many think of Hyman on the first line as a soft landing spot. It certainly started as a reward that was likely promised to him as a free agent. He clearly has earned the opportunity and made it count. He is the goal scorer other than Draisaitl that the team needed to play with McDavid.

And while the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman line was fire last year, I never thought of Zach as a play driver until the article.

I agree that putting a guy who scored 62 goals in the year 2024 on a de facto 3rd line is not a great long term idea, Henrique and Skinner actually have skill and Hyman seemed to complement them well. It may create balance for the top 3 lines, at least until Kane is back? I can see that line starting to have some actual success. At the very least, this line would not have gotten owned by the Byfield line.

Of course, this also hinges on RNH getting going 5×5 like we saw last night, and Brown continuing his strong form

Last edited 4 months ago by dangilitis
godot10

Quoting LT’s blog in the comments 101.

1) Copy and Paste.
2) Hit the quote button
3) Hit return a couple of times
4) Hit the quote button again
5) Type a letter
6) Backspace
7) You should now be in business OP.

Darryl8843

I have no dog in the fight. Why are you so bitter? Why can’t you just enjoy the game? Why can’t you just post your thoughts?

OriginalPouzar

Something I do multiple times a day, and that you see every day.

I missed one quote, a clear mistake, one I noticed 8 minutes after I posted which is too late to edit and I responded right away apologizing for the same.

So, may I ask, WTF?

godot10

I wasn’t able to read your posts. All I got was dots. I was trying to be helpful.

Sierra

And yet 5 hours before your “helpful” post LT explained that he mistakenly deleted the posts.

jp

The sun, moon and stars for Andreas Athanasiou, Mike Green and Duncan Keith?

The sun, moon and stars
=
2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and Caleb Jones

jp

Chiarelli got them to exactly one competitive playoff run, and Ken Holland absolutely delivered more while continuing the stunning talent bleed in these 10 years.

You’ve been lumping Holland in with Chiarelli lately (mostly re: prospects), which doesn’t quite sit right with me.

The above does acknowledge a difference, but still doesn’t seem fair in my view (and I know I’ve been a Holland apologist here for many years).

Maybe “stunning *prospect* talent bleed” would be a fair assessment in my opinion. I don’t think it can be argued that the Edmonton Oilers experienced an overall talent bleed in the 2nd half of these 10 years.

And Broberg and Holloway are every bit as much on Bowman and Jackson as they are on Holland, aren’t they?

jp

Sure, Bowman would have minority blame for Holloway/Broberg.

Maybe 40/40/20 for Holland/Jackson/Bowman?

I (personally) don’t see how 50% (or more) could be assigned to Holland.

jp

Yes, clearly it’s open to discussion.

That’s mostly the timeline. I wouldn’t blend the ‘Holland-Jackson’ 8 months with the ‘Jackson only’ 2 months where Holloway/Broberg were actually RFAs and then signed offer sheets.

IMO the ‘Jackson only’ period is clearly distinct. And IMO the decision on matching is as much ‘Bowman-Jackson’ as the earlier 8 months were ‘Holland-Jackson’.

I also remain unclear how ANY blame for the Holloway offer sheet lies with Ken Holland.

jp

You were crediting Jackson the moment Brady Stonehouse signed, so surely you’ll agree that ‘Holland-Jackson’ (rather than ‘Holland’) were the ones responsible for not signing or trading Broberg in fall or winter 2023/24.

McLeod agreed to sign a below QO offer from Holland, then signed a fair bridge deal from Holland, then was traded by Jackson. I don’t think there’s been any indication that McLeod was unhappy with how he was treated as an Oiler prior to the trade (correct me if I’m wrong).

Likewise Bouchard. It’s true Holland could have traded Barrie earlier and given Bouchard PP1 sooner, but I’m not aware of any indication that Bouchard isn’t happy with how he’s been treated as an Oiler.

‘Holland’ and ‘Holland-Jackson’ had Holloway on the NHL roster for most of his 2nd and 3rd ELC years when healthy. It was ‘Bowman-Jackson’ who deemed Holloway not worth matching at $2.3M.

Clearly it’s being debated, but I’ll never agree that the dual OS are on (or mostly on) Holland months after he left the organization.

Harpers Hair

Holland should have recognized what he had a year earlier, promoted their development, signed them earlier or cut bait.

Jackson should have resolved the issues before signing Skinner, Arvidsson and deciding not to move Kulak instead of Ceci.

Bowman was very late to the party.

70-20-10

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Why does Bowman deserve 20% responsibility? His hands were tied. He maybe deserves 5% blame.

Holland deserves the most blame because he limited Broberg’s NHL opportunities and tried to grind both Holloway and Broberg re contracts. JMO

Harpers Hair

Yes.

jp

Holland deserves the most blame because he limited Broberg’s NHL opportunities and tried to grind both Holloway and Broberg re contracts. JMO

Super confused how Holland “tried to grind Holloway and Broberg re contracts” when he was not the GM when they were RFAs. That was Jeff Jackson.

It’s true that Holland-Jackson could have signed either of Holloway and Broberg after the 2nd year of their ELCs, but I’d love to see a list of other non-regular NHLers who signed extensions in that situation. There sure as hell aren’t many.

Harpers Hair

There are dozens of pending RFAs who get signed to extensions every season.

godot10
Reja

As of this moment who would you rather have as a prospect Cowan or O’Reilly?

David

Very comparable draft seasons. Cowan popped in his draft+1 in a way that O’Reilly so far hasn’t.

O’Reilly is a right shot center, Cowan is a left shot winger.

It’s a reasonable question to ask. O’Reilly will need to take another step offensively though. I loved what I saw from O’Reilly at camp and in preseason.

I wish all CHL games were televised.

Scungilli Slushy

RS C like O’Reilly all day

Reja

Any idea how this works will O’Reilly play another year of Junior and possibly make the WJ team or does he go to Bakersfield next year? Will Clattenburg and Wakely play in Bakersfield next year? I have to tell you I’m excited about O’Reilly he’s a legit top 9 Centre all day everyday if developed properly. The Nicholl pick looks sneaky good as well. I think we’re going to look back at this draft and smile 5 years from now.

Todd Macallan

O’Reilly will definitely be back in London next year and should have a very prominent role with all the offensive guys in their last season currently. We are seeing a glimpse of that now with his bigger role with the WJC ongoing. I sure hope he has a shot at the WJC team next year and that Canada stays far away from the mgmt and coach of this year’s squad.

Wakely is an overager and it is ahl or echl for him next season. I do believe Clattenburg can do an overage season in the OHL next year but wonder if the org wants him adjusting to the pro game sooner after signing him to his elc recently.

Totally agree on Nicholl. He kind of reminds me of McLeod honestly in the way he skates and is always around the play in the dzone.

Last edited 4 months ago by Todd Macallan
jp

Any idea how this works will O’Reilly play another year of Junior and possibly make the WJ team or does he go to Bakersfield next year?

O’Reilly’s birthday is in March so he’ll return to the OHL and potentially play in the WJrs unless he’s in the NHL (which he won’t be).

Clattenburg and Wakely will most likely be in Bakersfield (or ECHL) next season. Clattenburg could play an overage (age 20) OHL season but he’ll be pro otherwise. Wakely is playing an overage season right now.

Nicholl will almost certainly return to the OHL next season as well and will also be eligible for the WJrs team next year (Clattenburg and Wakely will not).

OriginalPouzar

O’Reily is not age eligible for the AHL next season.

Clattenburg is – there is a chance he’d play an over-age season in junior but he is AHL eligible.

Wakely is already in an over-age season. I presume they will sign him and he’ll turn pro – could see ECHL time next season. He’s having a nice season but I always take over-age seasons in junior with a grain of salt.

Tarkus

Summarizing!

O’Reilly sniped his 15th goal in an o’vertime loss.

Nicholl returned to the lineup but was not a recipient of soup.

yeraslob

“Out among the stars”

Is that the Merle Haggard song… or something else?

1952barry

comparing anybody to Sam Pollock is a fools game

Scungilli Slushy

In life noble, in pro sports the only thing

Harpers Hair

Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl

Off Ty Emberson’s play up to this point an Oiler extension, maybe three years, is probably in the works

OriginalPouzar

I’ve been thinking 2-3 X $1.65MM (apx) to be signed early in the new year for a while now.

jp

I’ve been thinking 2-3 X $1.65MM (apx) to be signed early in the new year for a while now.

He’s 15 games from being an RFA (rather than UFA).

Would he be getting 2-3 x $1.65M on an RFA bridge deal? (I’m not so sure)

OriginalPouzar

Can’t say I’m sure but I think its somewhat reasonable – maybe a bit high but if they can get some real term for that AAV…..

jp

Yeah, ‘somewhat reasonable – maybe a bit high’ is how I feed about that number too.

The real question I think is – Is he a top 4 D in that 2-3 year time frame.

I’m not sure he is, not sure he’s not.

OriginalPouzar

Fair, I would suggest that his floor is a very good 3rd pairing d-man, a 5D, and $1.65MM is reasonable for that as well.

Clarkenstein

Several invisible players over the past three games. These breaks never turn out good for the Oilers. Tip of the hat to Stu Skinner. A wall when he had to be. But so many others just not earning their pay imo.

rev.hans

My father used to curse Bowman’s blender when applied to those glorious 70s Habs lines. He, like so many of us, was attached to “things being the way they were.” In all that I’ve read about that team I never hear complaints, after the fact.
One of the most interesting things about Knoblauch is how most of his decisions about who & how to deploy seem to “turn out.” Last spring and most of the way through the playoffs I heard a steady chorus of “Oilers don’t have the depth” to beat Stars, Panthers. Did they or did they not have the depth? Did they or did they not have a coach who knew how to deploy the depth that was there, to get within a whisker of the Cup? Almost as much as the games themselves I enjoy his “play” behind the bench. I’m trusting he & Bowman the Younger are singing from the same hymnal.

cowboy bill

Some sneaky good line combinations last night.

Nuge-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Skinner-Henrique-Hyman

All they need now is Noah Philp and have him center Janmark & Kapanen.

MushedPeas

I confess I hadn’t thought of dropping Hyman to support the third line. Kinda thought he was welded to McD. Hope that line gets another chance to make hay.

Red wolf

100%

€√¥£€^$

Happy New Year everyone!

It’s too bad that the club faded in the 2 LA games, but like I’ve said, this team has been an oilercoaster ride for years, but more recently the ups are very high and the lows get very low, not to mention all the twists and turns…

The best thing about this team overall has been consistent good health. The great thing trending this season is the play of several prospects. Many of us thought the organization was a prospect desert, but that changed dramatically this season.

Speaking of prospects, has anyone heard anything on the status of Roby Jarventie?

€√¥£€^$

Coincidence? Probably.

Regardless, I am still filing this under: “things that make you go hmmm”:

https://oilersnation.com/news/happy-new-year-edmonton-oilers-fans-2

MushedPeas

Timeless, really.

Just swap a name or two.

OriginalPouzar

A week or two before the break the coach stated that Jarventie was not close – hasn’t even skated yet. He was definitely not going to be back before the new year.

No idea if we are talking two more weeks or two more months.

OriginalPouzar

I keep waiting for Mattias Ekholm to regress.

Of course I loved the trade when it was made but was concerned about the term on his contract given his age.

He’s 34 and turns 35 during the playoffs – past normal “peak years” and generally in to real regression, and often cliff years, in particular for a bigger “average skater” type player.

He also takes a beating and his face if busted up more often than its not.

Well, notwithstanding a couple of games here or there (mini-slumps), this player has NOT regressed and continues to be a pillar of strength out there and a top 20-25 d-man in the league.

Don’t even have to mention how great of a dude he seems to be and an absolute leader. He does quite a bit of media for a guy that doesn’t wear a letter and that takes some pressure off guy like McDavid and Drai a bit.

MushedPeas

Besmirch not Viking.*

* had similar concerns.

Red wolf

I wouldn’t mind seeing more of Ekholm-Emberson.

It would mean Nurse with Bouchard and Kulak with Stetcher.
Such a combo would help Emberson’s development and might increase Ekholm’s longevity

OriginalPouzar

It also could provide a balance to the pairs.

Right now, while Nurse/Kulak continues to do a solid job as a make-shift (lefite-lefitie) 2nd pairing, the Stecher/Emberson pairing is barely playable.

OriginalPouzar

.

Last edited 4 months ago by Lowetide
OriginalPouzar

..

Last edited 4 months ago by Lowetide
Sierra

Interesting

Side

I see LT stickied your post to make an example of you.

2025 LT will rule with an iron fist.

OriginalPouzar

Wouldn’t be making lineup changes for Friday but I would suggest that Kapanen is putting himself in the conversation (along with Ryan and Perry) for healthy scratch candidate.

He’s scored some goals and made some plays, including defensive plays, and provides some depth PK minutes but he’s also leaking goals against. Bruce mentioned yesterday that has GA/60 is highest among forwards, with a bullet and, after leaking another last night (which he was culpable for) he’s been on the ice for something like 14 goals against in 17 games.

The Cult also has him a very high rate of mistakes on high danger chances against, nearing Jeff Skinner territory.

I hope he can tighten up as I like his speed and his sneaky skill and I think he would play an aggressive type game in the playoffs – not sure he’ll be on the roster come May but I hope he plays well enough to be.

MushedPeas

Shoot I’d missed that, and had assumed Kap was contributing positively to goal suppression.

1952barry

the guy has a short shelf life and is past his best before date

OriginalPouzar

Do you think he’s provided value for his cap hit as an Oiler?

norm2015

played well when hyman and arvi where out. might he sailing on

Reja

Brown has been having a fine year after a nasty ACL a few years ago. It basically took him all of last year rehabbing and thankfully for himself and the team getting his game back during the playoffs. Brown’s 30 should the Oilers resign him and for how much and how long?

OriginalPouzar

I agree on his play and, yes, high level, I’d like to bring Brown back for a couple of years but the AAV has to “be right” and, frankly, a discount to open market money. With the current high end cap hits, and those coming in the next few years, the Oiler have to be tight with their tertiary and depth player commitments (guys like Nuge and Hyman being locked in to the “secondary tier”).

I think a couple of million AAV on a 2 year term (3 year max but get the AAV down to, say, $1.8MM) would make sense and not have too much risk.

Reja

Obviously Brown loves it here and he seems to be a good fit especially with Janmark on the PK come playoff time. We all know a PK can carry you through a entire series or two. I do think if they give him the Janmark 3 year deal say around 1.6 to 1.8 mil annually that’ll he sign which should be a win win.

Last edited 4 months ago by Reja
1952barry

I could see a team like Buffalo, San Jose, going 30-40% higher on 3 year term

OriginalPouzar

and, as per my post, I suggested that this organization would require a discount to market in order to re-sign him (presuming he continues to have a strong season).

OriginalPouzar

Wouldn’t have expected Nuge/McDavid/Brown to be such a low event line, only 2 shots total in their close to 6 minutes – granted they both went in.

OriginalPouzar

I wasn’t questioning the numbers but just noting surprise – low event for a McDavid line for sure.

northerndancer

I thought they made for a pretty good checking line (as in they were all over the bad guys) with the potential for the odd goal thrown in. For balance. 🙂

northerndancer

Brown has the tenacity of Hyman but has more creativity with the puck. And is quick. Maybe not the willingness to hammer an opponent nor the goal line finish but he does fit well with two other creative players like McD and baby Nuge.

MushedPeas

I hope that’s true. My understanding is that last season – and I know last season is last season – Brown cratered the offense of whoever he skated with.

That’s not the vibe he’s giving rn so let’s hope he can run with these kinds of opportunities. Gives Knob more options.

OriginalPouzar

Solid finish to the year last night.

Of note in the Hyman deployment, post-game Knob alluded to part of it being that Hyman hasn’t played on the left side in quite a while and not even really practiced there. Sounds like they liked Brown up top and wanted to get Hyman back on the right side. Interesting deployment adjustment.

Tarkus

Prospectabularasa!

The spotlight shines on the Knights of London, who conclude a home-&-home with the Sarnia Yakupovs.

London administered a 9-3 spanking unto Sarnia’s backsides yesterday, aided greatly by O’Reilly o’registering a goal and three helpers. In doing so, he surpassed Nicholl in team scoring and they now sit third and fourth on the squad:

SO’R: 33 GP, 14-20-34
WN: 33 GP, 12-21-33

Nicholl has missed the past two games for reasons unknown to this author. Will Will draw back in when the puck drops at noon Excel time? We wait.

Todd Macallan

Internet sleuthing, ie. a post on HFb from a traditionally very knowledgeable ohl and prospect follower, noted WN missed 1 game due to a crosscheck but has recovered, and yesterday was just due to illness. If these are indeed facts I’d expect Nicholl back in short order.

Tarkus

Thank you for your intrepid reporting.

His imminent return will make for a nice little o’rivalry with O’Reilly for bragging rights down the stretch.

OriginalPouzar

Nicholl is playing today (currently -2 as the Knights are down 2-1) – Sam O. with the goal.

Tarkus
NovaScotiaOiler

And suddenly this song is 20 years old. Dear god…

Last edited 4 months ago by NovaScotiaOiler
ArmchairGM

Happy New Year everyone!

Big congrats to McDavid for passing Messier on the Oilers All-Time points list, which now looks like this:

Gretzky: 1669
Kurri: 1043
McDavid: 1036
Messier: 1034
Anderson: 906
Draisaitl: 906
Nugent-Hopkins: 719

January will no doubt see McDavid climb to #2 and Draisaitl to #5.

Bruce McCurdy

Congrats to Draisaitl as well for catching Anderson! Top 5 is a real nice milestone.

Clarkenstein

All because of another Kevin Lowe temper tantrum. They were $100K apart on a five year deal. Lowe said sign it or I’ll trade you. Unbelievable then, unbelievable now.

Harpers Hair

And Smyth offered to spend the $100K on a box in the arena.

Reja

The boss has to draw the line somewhere. Edmonton was good to Smyth I think he has a more illustrious career staying put but he chased the money which he has every right to do.

Harpers Hair

Thing is…it could have ended amicably but at the time it seemed Lowe’s ego was out of control.

Reja

I think it was more than a fair deal for Smyth who was a folk hero in Edmonton. When the boss says take it or leave it you can’t cry over spilled milk when you turn it down. Maybe it was Smyth agent that fired him up with they need you more than we need them rhetoric. The sweater is more important than the player Captain Canada blew a good part of his legacy for a hundred grand.

OriginalPouzar

Smyth was a tough negotiation at every opportunity (if i recall correctly).

David

I mean, Smyth could have signed the deal if it was just 100K off of what he would accept. The blame goes both ways.

hunter1909

Smyth had every opportunity. He simply was prepared to leave Edmonton for more money.

Then he returns, washed up, and it was almost like no one remembered who he even was.

OriginalPouzar

1035, good lord I swear he just got to 1000 like a couple weeks ago (obviously a bit longer).

Mayan Oil

What really gets me excited is seeing that McDrai should be #2 and #3 on that list by the end of next season. Damn impressive, especially considering the company on the list…

Last edited 4 months ago by Mayan Oil
OriginalPouzar

Also makes one (or at least me) appreciate their commitment to the organization and the city (on the easy presumption that McDavid does re-sign for term, again).